Jon Heyman of SI.com expects the Yankees to reach resolution with Joe Girardi, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter without much fanfare after the season. Heyman imagines a three or four year deal for Jeter at $20-25MM per season. Here are the rest of his rumors:
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he's confident in Curtis Granderson's defense. "We still have him as a plus defender," Cashman said.
- The Yankees could add Chan Ho Park, who the Cubs and Rays are eyeing, too.
- If the Rays add Park, they would likely be done and Russell Branyan could be out of luck. A Rays person tells Heyman the club has enough money for one signing only.
- The Giants never offered Tim Lincecum anything more than a three-year deal. Heyman hears that the club offered Lincecum $36MM, not $37MM, as we heard earlier.
Its funny seeing the Yankees bidding against themselves. Also they are setting up a lot of huge contracts for the elite SS’s like Hanley inthe future.
If Jeter is worth $25 mil the Hanley has to be worth $35 mil!
The accomplishments achieved by Jeter and his legacy to the Yankes cannot be compared to any current ss; hence your salary estimation for Hanley is preposterous. After Jeter resumes his career U eill have a clear sense of the greatest shortstop in Yankee history.
The accomplishments achieved by Jeter and his legacy to the Yankes cannot be compared to any current ss; hence your salary estimation for Hanley is preposterous. After Jeter resumes his career U eill have a clear sense of the greatest shortstop in Yankee history.
To be fair, that’s a writer’s opinion, not the Yankees. However, I think he’s probably not far off although I don’t understand why he gets an increase.
Jeter is on the road to 3000 hits, he is the team leader, and he is the greatest shortstop to ever play for the Ynakees and they have had some good ones thru the years. I am sure the steinbrenner family would like Jeter to be a lifetime Yankee. The fans love him. That is the reason he will be well paid, because he put butts in seats, sells hot dogs and beers and if the yankees do pay him the amount the writer of this article suggests it will be because the Yankees make a profit on him.At the end of the day it is a business.
To be fair, that’s a writer’s opinion, not the Yankees. However, I think he’s probably not far off although I don’t understand why he gets an increase.
The reason Jeter gets that money is because of how much me means to the team and the fans. He is the leader of the team and hasn’t shown any slow-down yet.
As a free agent, he’d certainly get much less.
Not “Less” try half. If Jeter landed a 2/$25MM deal after this season, he’d consider himself very lucky. Now because the Yankees absolutely CANT let Jeter walk, its Jeter’s chance to get paid. If he demands $30MM a year for 8 years, they still have no leverage. So while they are “bidding against themselves” they truly still are going to struggle to have any leverage in the deal.
I think any Yankees signings are separate from any other signings around baseball. There are what? Maybe 20-25 100+MM deals in major league history? I’d have to double check that number, but it feels about right. Somewhere around 7-9 of those are Yankees contracts. I think most players understand that if the Yankees aren’t bidding on them, their perceived value is pretty much cut in half. Hanley will top out his deals around $22MM though, and thats if the Yankees are involved. Pujols also, won’t find $30MM if he doesn’t sign in New York. He will find something like 6/$150 from a team like the Sox or Mets, but that will be his top offer. Keep in mind 3 recent events.
1. CC Sabathia – Second highest known bidder for CC’s services even after he signed with NY was the Angels at around 95-105MM… Overbid of 50-60MM and a player protection clause?
2. Alex Rodriguez – Second highest bidder was around 8/200 and that was the Boston Red Sox potentially offering a 200MM deal, but that offer was not even on the table. The Yankees essentially again, bid against themselves and overpaid by at least 75MM, and if all incentives are hit 125MM
3. AJ Burnett – 82.5? Why? Why? Why? I doubt if there was a 4/60 offer on the table for Burnett, though some others have speculated some offers were that high. But either way a 5 year contract for a guy who is constantly injured, has control lapses, and really didn’t likely have a second strong bidder? Why? Again at least a 22.5MM overpay on Burnett. He would have gone to NY at 4/60.
Why do the Yankees do this? Go to the Forbes website, and you will understand. They pull in excessively more money than any other team in baseball, so the return is good enough to justify it. This is the reason why “revenue sharing” will never work in baseball, because the penalty is not enough to make the Yankees really care. Whatever, they pay 40% on everything over the tax threshold (170MM)… who cares?
This again, is what differentiates the Yankees and the Red Sox and again why no one can compete with the ridiculous spending. Plain and frankly, because the Yankees overbid 197.5MM on 3 players in the last few seasons (and thats if you take the low end of all figures. Likely this is more like 200-205MM). Even now, with the Sox high payroll, they don’t have any ridiculous contracts on the books. The most expensive guy pre-Lackey was $14MM and thats JD Drew who according to FanGraphs has exceeded his value in that contract. Even when they spend a lot in an offseason its still only around 120-130MM… Not 300-500MM. Just my take and my best attempt at an answer for you and the others who have asked.
And once again, this doesn’t say I think the Yanks will win again. Just that no one can keep up with free agent spending and payroll.
How does it differentiate them? Just because one is richer? The point is: they are both rich. It’s like a bank complaining about a bigger bank being able to spend more.
Yes, the Yankees have a much larger revenue. However, they also spend much more in relation to their revenue. (percentage wise)
Quite frankly, I would much rather have my team spend money than just pocket the leftover cash.
I mean, if you have a solution to any of this, then please share. Complaining about the problem won’t help. Is there a better system out there? Salary cap? You think the union would allow that without concessions? How would that stop the Yankees from spending the new excess capital into international FAs, draft picks, or other organizational improvements?
That’s like comparing Mcdonalds to Wendys… One makes a lot more, thus can afford more locations. Same goes for baseball. One is richer and can afford more players
Yes, in which case, both are still large corporations — much larger than small restaurants.
It’s a case of… “as long as I’m not spending the most, it’s okay.”
You can’t have a top 5 payroll team and then try to differentiate yourself from the “biggest spender”.
As far as competition goes, the Yankees’ investment spending would directly effect the division’s playoff chances. So, the biggest losers here are the other divisional opponents. (Mainly the Red Sox and the Rays who have viable playoff teams. The rays especially since they don’t have a top payroll ) Therefore, the effect of that spending is more contained than you would think.
The right to spend what you earned is a fundamental principle of capitalism. So the Yankees are spending a lot of what they earn? Is it their fault that they live in such a populous city? Would you rather they just pocket the money they own?
Not richest owners even, just best team revenue, which in this case is a great term known as ROI (Return On Investment)
You speak in absolutes but these are mostly guesses on your part. You say Pujols will get 6 yrs 150, really? The Cards just gave 7/120 to Matt Holliday, I can guarantee you Pujols gets a better deal, one at least much closer to Teixeiras deal. Pujols is putting up historic numbers on a consistent basis and will be payed for it.
Also you talk about bidding against themselves as if the yankees have a monopoly on this, how about I give you a few examples Zito, Holiday, Bay, Carlos Silva, Alphonso Soriano, Gary Mathews Jr not to mention guys like Chan Ho Park, Kris Benson, Sexton and Beltre. Those guys all got mega deals and there clubs significantly outbid any reported any 2nd place bidders. Also and this is the big thing here the Yankees werent serious players for any of those guys. The stupidity of those deals had nothing to do with the Yankee brass.
As for the yankees spending 400 million in an offseason, yeah thats a crazy amount, but look at the players. In 2006 when the Cubs went out and spent 300 million in free agency on older and worse players, i dont remember the fan outrage about how they are ruining the game and making it so other teams cant compete?
On to your Yankee analysis:
1.)CC Sabathia: The Brewers offered 5 years and a little over 100 million and were willing to go to a 6th year. The Brewers GM confirmed this . So If they went the 6th year it would have been over 120 million. The were at 6 years 140 and went in for the 7th year in order to convince him and his family to come to NY, a decision CC was weary about. Also i completely missed the report that the Angels made an offer matching the initial 6 yr 140 dea of the Yanks
Link:jsonline.com/blogs/sports/35869674.html
articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/26/sports/sp-shaikin…
2.)Alex Rodriguez: This is a stranger case to examine because Cashman had washed his hands of Arod when he opted out but Alex came back and negotiated with the owners directly. The Giants, Red Sox, Tigers, and Angels were interested but I cant find any figures
3.)A.J Burnett:See now i also hate this deal but that besides the point. You say they out bid the next bidder by 22.5 million but thats wildly incorrect. The Braves offered 5 yrs 80 million. As reported by Rosenthal and others. So the Yankees offered 2 million more for the pitcher they wanted.
Link:sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3761008
Basically all of your figures are exaggerations and I provided links to show that.
To be honest, you’re absolutely right. I have always said I will never justify the spending the Yanks do, despite my love for the team, because there simply is no way to justify it.
I’ll certainly still support and love the team no matter what, because I grew up with the team and was born into a family that has been Yankee fans since the 1950s.
You’ll get no arguments from me on the subject of money, spending sir. The only thing I have to say is that, on a semi-unrelated note, the only fix to this problem-a salary cap-would not diminish the power of the Yankees, but simply reduce player salaries.
Hey lets not make the Red Sox out to be penny pinchers. I detected a slight biasedness towards the Redsox in your diatribe The Sox almost got Texiera last year didn’t they? What were they claiming to have offered him? They would have outbid the Yankees, but Tex wanted to go to NY!!
Tell the RedSox to stop bidding up players that want to come to the Yanks and we can avoid this escalation in contracts, but PLEASE lets not pretend the Sox have been the voice of reason.
Remember the Yankees have what will be the greatest shortstop and third base combo in the history of baseball add texeria into the mix and Cano who is a good hitter it is at the end of there playingg days they are going to be the greatest infield ever assembled. If you want quality you have to pay for it. The yankees play in New York which is considered to be the greatest city in america, the steinbrenners make the most revenue from the yes network, they are always at the top for attendence, and they are in a position to make a run at championships for the next several years.
The steinbrenner family has always been willing to sign the best players . The yankees are considered the greatest franchise ever assembled. I am a dodger fan but I do admire the yankees.
The reason Jeter gets that money is because of how much me means to the team and the fans. He is the leader of the team and hasn’t shown any slow-down yet.
As a free agent, he’d certainly get much less.
and for what jeter makes the yankees get back because of the revenue jeter makes this team not to metion his accomplishments in a yankee uniform and your talking like he cant play he still can play he is a top3-5 shortstop
Its funny seeing the Yankees bidding against themselves. Also they are setting up a lot of huge contracts for the elite SS’s like Hanley inthe future.
If Jeter is worth $25 mil the Hanley has to be worth $35 mil!
Ok, people are making too much of a big deal out of the impending Jeter deal. Here’s what will happen:
Jeter – Ok, what’s your offer.
Cashman – A lot of money over 4 or 5 years with a few team options, a large signing bonus, a bonus at 3,000 hits, your number retired, and a guarantee that we’ll hire you as a special assistant after you retire.
Jeter – Sounds good, send the paperwork to my agent when its done.
exactly.
though i tend to think it will be 5 or 6 years. Jeter will want to be paid until he retires, and I don’t think he intends on retiring at 40. 5/110-6/125 seems logical. maybe he gives the Yankees a bit of a “discount” (if you can even call it that) and signs for 6/120.
I figure it this way, yanks know Jeter is far more valuable to them with the team than any where else. Likewise Jeter knows he;s more valuable in a yanks uniform. The yanks will open with a high offer, Jeter will accept, and there will be minor haggling over the details.
Cashman should just give Jeter a blank check and tell him to fill it out.
I would love to see Chan Ho Park in pinstripes.
Grandy is going to have a huge year. He’s going to prove that the Yankees won that trade.
I think the Yankees did win that trade, but I think people overhype Granderson. He’s a great combination of speed and power. No doubt.
However some food for thought:
1) August and Sept/Oct lines: August: .239/.324/.429; Sept/Oct: .255/.319/.477
He does seem to fall apart as the season comes to an end. Its a long season for any player, but he definitely shows a pretty big dropoff, especially in power. Those are career lines by the way, recent years show its getting worse.
2) 2009 line W/RISP: .242/.358/.424; Not at all impressive.
3) Career line vs LHP: .210/.270/.344; Atrocious… nothing more nothing less. Last year was no fluke.
4) Lots of power pitching in the AL East, between Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Davis, Price, Bard… Heres Grandy’s line vs Power pitching in his career: .224/.310/.404… Lets face facts, AL East has some great pitchers that he will have to contend with, and they mostly happen to be power pitchers. Let alone a power lefty like Lester? May as well bench Grandy for those games.
None of this is saying I think Granderson is a bad player, but those who call him an “upgrade” over Damon, make me laugh a little bit. Damons a .300 hitter who can steal about the same amount of bases when healthy, and while his arm is atrocious, his range is still pretty good. Not to mention hes got no problem poppin 20+ over that short right porch. All I’m saying is the guy’s got a lot of flaws that don’t exist for Damon. Defensively, big upgrade, even with Grandy’s shady D. But to counter that, Damon is clutch, whereas Grandy botches big plays.
Granderson in the OF looks like the greatest fielder ever compared to Damon’s noodle arm and butterfingers that were on display in 2009.
Damon is also about 8 years older who only popped 20 bc of the short porch. Granderson will EASILY HAVE 30 over that same porch…maybe even 40.
And we have Nick Johnson to sufficiently replace Damon…Granderson is more likely to replace Matsui.
You put too much stock into Granderson’s 2009. If the Yankees did that they would’ve never went after Swisher after his horrible 2008, and would’ve traded Cano after his terrible 2008. One year deviations should be discounted in the long run…
I wouldn’t call him that… but as a Red Sox fan I do have to say the Granderson trade has me worried. For what they got and the price they paid I’m fairly certain the yanks got quite the bargain.
Granderson + Johnson > Damon + Matsui
Vazquez > Wang
Winn/Thames > Melky
The Yankees have gotten younger and better this offseason.
I would say the Red Sox offense is worse in 2010, but their defense and pitching is better.
I would say the Yankees offense, defense and pitching all improved.
How do people gauge that our offense will be worse? I would love to know. Cameron, Ortiz, Beltre, Youkilis, Martinez, Drew should all hit around 20 homers or more.
RBI’s by my (LOWBALL) count
Ellsbury – 50
Pedroia – 60
Youkilis – 95
Martinez – 95
Ortiz – 95
Beltre – 65
Drew – 65
Cameron -70
Scutaro – 60
Thats not counting the bench or anything else and by my LOWBALL count i’m at 655 at the absolute lowest RBI count. Thats if nobody has a breakout season. Last year the Sox drove in 822 RBI’s… You don’t think that the entire bench and the overs covered by each of these can top 822? You’re absolutely crazy. You are talking about 170 RBI’s. More than likely, most of the starters will have more than the RBI’s I put up there… Once again, those are LOWBALL numbers.
Chone predicts that the Sox will average over 5 RPG again… Where do you get this lack of offense from?
Next…
Vazquez>Wang? Really? 1 good year for Vazquez and you round him out as better than a guy who won 38 games in 2 years? If Vazquez wins 15, the Yanks will be psyched. Wang just got hurt and could be the biggest bargain pickup of the season if he returns healthy.
Sabathia-Beckett completely equal matchup. Look at the numbers and they are neck and neck. If Beckett stays healthy on a contract year, I actually give him the edge over CC. Personal opinion and I dont want to hear any silly Yankees arguments about this one, because it will just go back and forth and nowhere
Lester-Burnett This one isn’t even a question… I’m not going to address it.
Lackey-Pettite: Again… Not even a question, I’m not going to address it.
Matsuzaka-Vazquez: if healthy (big if but once again if) I’ll take Dice-K. Just for fun in case Dice-K is out, I’ll do Wake-Vazquez… I’ll take Vazquez in that one…
Joba or Phil – Buchholz or Wake: Definitely will go with Buchholz and Wake. One reason being, most analysts don’t expect Joba to ever come around as a starter. Second reason being having that second clear option to turn to is a great thing. Lets not forget Junichi Tazawa, who had quite a bit of success last year if you remove a few little bumps is always lurking to come take over if desperation falls somehow…
Bottom line, our rotation absolutely DEMOLISHES the Yankees rotation. The question you as a Yankees fan have to ask, is can you score over 5 runs per game against this pitching/defense. Not to mention I like our outfield depth of Jeremy Hermida who has a high ceiling over guys like Randy Winn… Granted, Hermida hasn’t done much yet, but if he sees some playing time as a pull hitter at Fenway, he could have a solid season.
This is not to mention that our offense is not a powerhouse offense anymore. Its more like the Angels past few years where they manufactured runs like no other team in baseball. This is also not to mention that if you are expecting similar ’10s to ’09s for Ortiz and Beltre, you are thinking quite wishfully. Ortiz will put up a .265 average with 30 and 100. Beltre could well do exactly the same, say drop that HR total down to 25 and 90 RBI’s.
Again, if the offense hits a rut as you completely uneducatedly predict by reading MLB.com… They have the second best farm system in baseball and Adrian Gonzalez or others could be in a Red Sox uniform whenever Theo decides he wants to pull the trigger. Its not something they are really worried about. They know they hold all the leverage in the world.
How are you even arguing Vazquez is a worse option than Wang? Wang won’t even be ready by the start of the season, and you think they’re better off with Wang?!
Wang had a 4.7 WAR back in 2006. He followed it up with a 4.4 WAR in 2007. Obviously an injury plagued 2008 limited him last year, and it clearly had some effect on him this season as well. However, as I said Wang won’t even be ready by the start of this season (some reports have him returning as late as June) and even when he does come back, his injury/problems were severe enough where it’s unlikely he’ll return to a apprx. 4.5-5.0 WAR pitcher.
Vazquez, on the other hand, saw the best year of his career last season, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat it. But, since 2006 (same year Wang had his first full year) Vazquez has posted a 4.8 WAR, 5.1 and 4.8 again. That is very good. Vazquez is durable too, throwing at least 198 innings every year since 2000. When you have to use wins to justify your argument, it just isn’t a good argument.
I think comparing pitcher by pitcher is pointless – the Red Sox have the better pitching, the Yankees have the better hitting. However, the Red Sox and Yankees pitching/hitting are close enough to each other where it’ll be a great fight atop the division anyway.
Here is the problem I have with your posts – you look at only the positives for the Red Sox players, and the negatives for the Yankees players. Every fan has a bias, that’s a given, but your opinion on the Yankees doesn’t seem to take in account their many, many positives as well. Right now, you think the Red Sox will win the division – I think the Yankees will. Neither of our opinions will change, because we’re fans of teams that win. Simple as that.
I’m saying to say vazquez will be better after he’s had 1 (count them) good year in the AL as a white sox. I wouldn’t say hed be much better or worse. I’m speaking more in terms of wins above replacement than wins over wang, they just happen to work out similarly. I don’t know that he will offer much more, no.
Fyi I retract my statement and here’s a link. Sabathia didn’t even get a present value 100MM offer from the brewers as much of the money was deferred.
sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3759182
Also older than the one I was looking for, but good enough for my ride home
The sox seem to have alot of aging players and there pitching staff has some questions. I am not so sure about a wild card spot this year. The rays are going to make a run and you also have a good race in the ALwest. Seattle is much improved, and the Angels alway field a strong team. Also the central has improved teams in Chicago, and the Twins. The Yankees are the odds on favorites to win the east. It should be a good race.
I dunno I agree with u there. a .202 career avg with not even .400 slg is pretty bad. Bench worthy bad. Damon hit lefties far better, hits for better avg, and works the count better. Swish wouldn’t start on most teams… I dunno what your reference to him is all about. Hinske could have put up similar lines if he played the whole year with that porch.
There are wayyyyyyy more righties than lefties in MLB.
If you think Granderson is not so good bc of his numbers vs lefties, you can theoretically say the same about Ryan Howard.
You also need to take into account his GREAAT numbers vs righties when you criticize his numbers vs lefties.
Swisher wouldn’t start on most teams? He had the same OPS as JD Drew, and was not good at home with the short porch (only about 4 of his 28 HR were at home)…
you, sir…are DEAD wrong.
Swisher had a huge Swisher year last year… First of all for someone who speaks of not overhyping 1 year. Secondly, swishers ops was about 50 points lower than Drews. Drews OPS is .914, which is considerably higher than swishers highest ever in 2009 (.869). And his obp was .376 compared to .392. Lastly, swishers career ops if you prefer working with big samples is .818, drews is .896.
Not to mention drew hits 280 while swish hits 250. And drew plays much better RF, and that’s at an older age. Not to mention Drews clutch hit after clutch hit.
No comparison. None. talks like this just go to show how overhyped the longball is.
Through 2005-2007, Swisher’s line was .251/.361/.466. 2008, we all know Swisher’s garbage year. This year, it was .249/.371/.498. A boost in slugging, everything else is pretty in line with career numbers, and the slight differences can be attributed to a ton of things.
Point being, Swisher’s year wasn’t an outlier. It was more in line with what you can expect from Swisher – slightly below average D, good power and OBP, low AVG. Nothing special, but Swisher probably would start on a lot of teams. Maybe not always in RF, but maybe in LF, or 1B.
He would not start on most teams and the point is the same, comparing him to JD Drew is beyond a joke.
Let me rephrase that. Most “contending” teams.
That’s also by a HUGE spike in 2006 I believe it was. If ur skipping 08, you gotta skip 06. 05 and 07 were about what u can expect.
Why? ’06 is very like ’09 – low avg, high obp and slugging numbers. His “huge” spike in ’06 isn’t as big a spike as ’08 is a drop.
35 homers? And like 60 pts higher than his avg slg? That’s a pretty big jump
R_y_a_n:
Good morning Yankees fan buddy. I heard a really good Yankees joke yesterday from a Mets fan @ work, but I’ll wait to share that one with you until a later date. I was writing this morning (and hope you receive this via email as I do) that for all of our arguing the other day, Baseball Prospectus rankings that just came out, put the Sox at 94 wins and AL East winners. Just a thought that perhaps you are the ones who need to rethink your own biases… if you are looking for a link, and are an insider, here you go.
insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=4917…
Drews “clutch hit, after clutch hit”, was about 50 clutch hits short of what the Sox needed to win the East in 09!!
Oh and BTW, you mentioned earlier how JD Drew had a measley $14 mill/yr contract, well Swisher is $5 or $6 mill. So who are you taking Mr Theo Wanabee? What is even funnier than your twisted and biased logic is SWISHER WAS THE YANKS #8 hitter in the lineup!!! So you keep smokin your crack pipe and let me know you come down from the LCD trip you are on!!
Granderson did hit a game tying homer in game 158 off Joe Nathan last year but I agree with Damon being more clutch.
I don’t understand the stats off power pitchers. Do you mean off those pitchers? Could you please clarify that Beckett_Lackey_LesterFTW.
Yes. Those are Grandys stats vs powerpitchers. Provided by baseball-reference.com if ur interested in seeing more. They also have combination p/finess pitchers and just finesse pitchers. Grandy likes a nice 88MPH fastball is what this shows, but is easily overwhelmed if a guy like beckett or lester takes him up in the zone.
And that’s in the toughest RF in baseball
That’s why I think Granderson will tear up Yankee Stadium.
There is a 0% chance Jeter gets a 5 year 20-25 mil deal or w/e the hell Heyman is saying.
It is borderline idiotic to compare Derek Jeter to Sabathia and ARod (arguably the best pitcher and best hitter in MLB). Other big contracts like Posada, Burnett, Mariano were signed in competition with other teams like the Braves and Mets who had close offers.
No one in their right mind will sign Jeter for anything close to that. Especially if you look at these economic times. I see Jeter getting a 3-4 year deal with about 15-18 mil per (MAX).
You don’t pay players on legacy, you pay them on the future. An aging shortstop who will end up moving positions is Jeter’s future.
Jeter will not say ‘I’ll get my 3,000th in another uniform’ because he needs the Yankees as much as the Yankees need him. If he leaves the Yankees and takes a smaller deal somewhere else, do you have any idea what kind of impact that’ll have on his image. And unlike guys like Manny Ramirez, Jeter cares a whole lot about what his image looks like.
In other news, Granderson will be in a Yankees lineup that is head over heels better than the Tigers, and a stadium that is head over heels better at hitting than Comerica. Mix in occasional days off vs lefties (something he couldnt have with no depth in Detroit), and you might be talking about a .280 hitter with 30 HR (atleast) and 25 SB out of CF…
Seriously…I don’t understand some of the things people say w/o even trying to educate themselves first.
@ Beckett/Lackey/Lester FTW
“1. CC Sabathia – Second highest known bidder for CC’s services even after he signed with NY was the Angels at around 95-105MM… Overbid of 50-60MM and a player protection clause?”
Milwaukee made the 1st offer to CC @ 5/$100. (see sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/11/03/…). It was also reported that the Angeles offered him $140 mil (see sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/…). Also, seeing as how Johan Santana’s deal signed the year prior was for an average of $22.9 mil and CC’s deal is on average $23 mil, I’m not sure how anyone can say the Yanks “overpaid”. All the Yanks did was guarantee 1 extra year above Santana’s 6 year deal.
“3. AJ Burnett – 82.5? Why? Why? Why? I doubt if there was a 4/60 offer on the table for Burnett, though some others have speculated some offers were that high. But either way a 5 year contract for a guy who is constantly injured, has control lapses, and really didn’t likely have a second strong bidder? Why? Again at least a 22.5MM overpay on Burnett. He would have gone to NY at 4/60.”
The Atlanta Braves offered Burnett a 5/$80 deal prior to the Yankees offering him 5/$82.5 mil (see ballhype.com/story/fox_sports_on_msn_mlb_source_br…). Allegedly, Burnett choose the Yanks because they had CC already and he didn’t want to be looked at as a teams #1 ace. So at the end of the day the Yanks paid an extra $2.5 mil over what Atlanta offered.
“2. Alex Rodriguez – Second highest bidder was around 8/200 and that was the Boston Red Sox potentially offering a 200MM deal, but that offer was not even on the table. The Yankees essentially again, bid against themselves and overpaid by at least 75MM, and if all incentives are hit 125MM”
This is the only logical claim that you made regarding the Yanks bidding against themselves. Truly it was not their best negotiating tactics evident by the fact that Cashman was opposed to the deal and upset that they lost the benefit of the money Texas was paying to fund the orginal $250 mil deal.
As for Jeter, I think he’s a reasonable person. A deal somewhere around 4/$75 to 5/$100 is where I think he will end up signing. I don’t think Jeter views himself in exactly the same situation as Arod. Arod has the benefit of being able to slide into the DH role later in his career. I’m not sure what kind of SS Jeter will be at 40 or where he could play if he can’t adequately play SS. I also don’t think he’s the kind of guy trying to “keep up with the Jones’s”. As long as he gets a fair deal (4 to 5 years, annual salary around $20 mil and maybe career milestone bonuses for 3,000 hits, 3,500 hits, etc) then I think he’s be happy.
Finally, you said…
“This again, is what differentiates the Yankees and the Red Sox and again why no one can compete with the ridiculous spending. Plain and frankly, because the Yankees overbid 197.5MM on 3 players in the last few seasons (and thats if you take the low end of all figures. Likely this is more like 200-205MM). Even now, with the Sox high payroll, they don’t have any ridiculous contracts on the books. The most expensive guy pre-Lackey was $14MM and thats JD Drew who according to FanGraphs has exceeded his value in that contract. Even when they spend a lot in an offseason its still only around 120-130MM… Not 300-500MM. Just my take and my best attempt at an answer for you and the others who have asked”.
You speak of how the Sox “only” spent $120-$130 mil this year and NOT the $400 mil the Yanks spent last year. What you fail to account for is the fact that with their $130 mil the Sox failed to acquire a single player who would fit the “elite” classification. Instead they got 2 good players w/ some question marks in Lackey and Beltre and a couple of short-term stop gap players in Cameron, Scutaro, etc. The Yanks on the other hand acquired two elite players in CC and Tex and one good (sometimes great) pitcher in Burnett.
The Sox inability or unwillingness to pay for elite talent has caused a revolving door of replacement players at various positions.
Trading Garciaparra and failing to trade for Arod: Led to Renteria, Cabrera, Lowery, Lugo, Gonzalez and Scutaro.
Not signing Texeira and moving Youks to 3B: Has led them to depend on an aged Lowell and now Beltre on a 1 year deal w/ an option.
I’m not knocking the Sox for how they do business but I am applauding the Yanks for spending their money to fill gaping holes when “elite” talent became available on the market and for thinking short term when the market DIDN’T offer up long-term solutions with elite level talents. In 09 the signings of Tex and CC made sense because they filled needs and were long term solutions. In 2010 they’re were “elite” level talents on the market to fill needs in LF and the rotation, so they went short-term instead and left themselves with options to pursue elite talents in next years FA pool. The Yanks are flexing their financial might when appropriate and showing restraint, and for the first time in years, a plan for the future. Now that Cashman doesn’t have as many restraints to do his job it seems that he’s thinking in terms of the next 2-4 years as opposed to just this summer. Now of course the Yanks have the financial ability to erase any mistakes or injury issues but the thought process displayed in 2008 to the present shows the front office is working in the right direction.
Good, good post.
waiting for mine to be “reviewed” but believe me, not a good good post.
No bias at all.
No… Its called numbers. Numbers tell the story fairly well. There are variables of course, but the overall message is pretty clear
By the way, if it isn’t a good post, can you argue his points? I’d love to see it. You’ll probably try and not change your mind, but YSF78 backed his up with links. I don’t know if you’ll be able to do that.
I’m waiting again, for my post to be moderated. Once its up yes u will have my counter, and only reason I can’t post links is cause I’m posting from a train on my phone
Yea, that is it, I’m reviewing – or wait, maybe it’s just offering an opinion?
I love when people say “believe me”. Ohhhhhh alright, I should believe you? Terrible post, YSF78! Terrible!
Lol pet peave of mine as well. Sorry. I respect that. Waitin for post to be put up after “moderation”
You are the most biased uneducated poster that I have ever read on this blog so far, and that takes a lot.
LOL so actual numbers mean nothing to you, just your perception? You need to rethink things
Lastly, before this phone dies, I want you to post what you think is biased about the Yanks overspending, the Sox havin second best farm system in baseball as per keith law espn rankings, or grandersons and swishers numbers. I can’t believe you aren’t yelling at your own for comparing JD Drew and Nick Swisher. That was one of the funniest things I’d ever heard. Its like comparing Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez… No comparison.
First of all. You are dead wrong on CC. Milwakee pulled that offer off the table quite quickly, and a week or two before CC signed with Yanks. He wanted to go to a winner. He made it clear. Either way, 95-105 was the next highest bid. My statement remains the same.
Burnett again, wrong. That deal was rumored and was quickly shot down by Wren. The deal was believe to be far less than that, around 4 years and 60MM. I’m on the train, so cant find a post for you at the moment, but if you do a little research, you will have no problem.
The Yanks offered 1MM more on teix which is why I didn’t list him. Teix’s wife didn’t want to go to boston. So he used the Sox to drive the Yanks price up. Thats all it was. Plain and simple.
lastly, to not call one of the most consistant pitchers in the game an elite pitcher is a joke. Lackey has put up a better line over the last 5 years than CC by far. BY FAR. CC had a few breakout seasons, but most predictions put him around a 4.00 ERA (lowest I’ve seen is about 3.87)… I would hardly call that elite if you question lackey. But thats just me. No injuries like Beckett to excuse those numbers, thats just CC’s consistant numbers.
LASTLY, the Yankees have failed to do what Boston’s done, and Cashman admitted it on NoMaas.org in his interview. Develop a farm system that keeps the flow going so that you dont HAVE to spend 200MM forever. The Yankees ranked 27th in baseballs farm systems this year I believe? Maybe it was 24th? I don’t remember the exact ranking, but it was the bottom end. There is no one coming up to relieve any salary. The Yankees will forever be a 200MM payroll team. The Sox are doing it for one year while waiting for contracts to expire. There’s a huge difference. By 2012, if our payroll is 150, I’d be shocked considering the talent thats coming up. If 50% of them succeed, we will be light on payroll until 2020 and still be a top 3 team in the AL. Meanwhile, the Yanks will need to find replacements and while many like to think they are “younger” they are hardly “better”, and will continue to get older as Arod is pushing the wrong side of 35 and Jeter and Mariano can’t do it forever. Like the Sox learned with Lugo and Varitek, having 2 holes in the lineup hurts. Gardner and Swisher will be those holes for NYY. If one other player slumps or is injured, that lineup no longer looks nearly as intimidating. It was much more well rounded last year, and the “hole” swisher had a career year. It does happen, and all too often…
Haha, how can you argue with a legitimate link saying the Angels offered $140 mil? You say, “either way, the next highest bid was 95-105”. Clearly, it wasn’t!
Again, should we just “believe you”? You have no link or fact to back up the idea that Wren shot down the Braves offering Burnett $80 million.
Now, I’m done responding to you because it’s clear nothing is going to get through. You’re wearing those rose colored glasses to tight. It’s no skin off my bones if you don’t want to try and look at both ends of the spectrum. So enjoy the season, I think you’ll be severely disappointed.
I can’t get the link atm, but there was no actual 140 “offer” on the table. That was a speculated offer that wound up being false. The actual value was much lower. If it was 110, it was 110, but fox, nbc ect… They are wrong a lot.
That’s all I’m saying to you. I’m not saying your team is not good. I’m simply saying, to say the sox don’t have offense and haven’t moved in on elite stars and developed their squad the “right” way, is plain false. To argue that the Yankees didn’t overbid ridiculously on those 3 is absurd to say. Those are not gm moves that take talent. Its all got to do with revenue. The team can afford it, so screw it why not. That’s not baseball, and it doesn’t last forever. I’m simply saying I happen to disagree with you, and I’m tired of the Yanks fans defending the constant spending. It honestly wouldn’t bother me as much if Yanks fans could man up and just say, yea, you know this is just silly, but it got us a ring, so whatever. Trying to post a counterargument and arguing over whether the yanks overbid by 120MM or 200MM is irrelevant. They hugely overbid and Burnett was not offered an actual 80MM contract, the same way that reports change about values every day. Just do a little research of ur own instead of relying on another Yankees fan post. All I’m saying.
Here’s ur burnett link btw. Plugged away at braves.com for it on my phone. So now u can quiet down. The 5th year was an option! That’s y he chose the yankees offer. And it was a lower value.
mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081204&con…
Honestly, don’t even bother with it. I’m not going to respond to the posts. I think you’re too biased to change your opinion, so I will not waste my time.
To change my opinion that the Yanks overbid on their stars. Yea… I’m alone on that one. Did u even open the link I sent? Lol.
There’s a reason u have to address this all the time and its not cause I’m biased. Take a look at yourselves.
By your argument, you also don’t think the Mets overbid on Bay? Just a thought. Considering his second best offer was 2 guaranteed years we found out after he signed… Same was found about CC. And if your memory fails you, I will remind you when I’m home in 10 minutes. Least I can do
So I’m awaiting your response. Here’s that ESPN link. I think you will enjoy it. States all 3 things i said
1: Angels never made an actual offer. They speculated offering him a contract but had other things they wanted to do first.
2: Brewers offer was 100MM but lots of deferred money, which bring present day value down.
3. Yankees overbid
His second biggest offer in present day dollars was in the 80MM range and that was from the Brewers. Not even 95-105… So please. Again, I’m not hating on your team. I’m simply saying you overspent.
If that burnett article isn’t enough above for you, I will search that one now and will give it to you when you respond to sabathia and simply say “I’m sorry, I was wrong.” The part you are looking for is at the bottom btw, it reads like this:
“The Brewers made a five-year, $100 million offer, but with much of the money deferred. The Giants, according to sources, never made a formal offer, but indicated they could be willing to extend a bid slightly lower than the Brewers’ offer if the deal was structured carefully.
GM Doug Melvin said he was notified at 7:30 a.m. Wednesday that the Brewers were no longer in the running.
“We put our best foot forward,” Melvin said. “We made a substantial offer. We looked at some numbers and we gave some serious consideration to offering a sixth year. We didn’t do it, but we had given it consideration. We were still mulling the numbers on the sixth year, we asked our financial people to look at it. But it appears it would not have made a difference, anyway.”
The Dodgers and Angels were interested but had other priorities. And while Sabathia and his agent, Greg Genske, met with the Red Sox during their visit to Las Vegas, the Red Sox never loomed as serious bidders.”
Heres the full link for those interested. Again, Yanks fans… You guys take things wayyy too personally. Its not an argument. Its a simple fact… If links make your memories jog, happy to provide them. Just pulling them off my blog from last year.
sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3759182
Fyi, that was an early article, not the one that gives the average value. Phone dead, will post other links as soon as I’m home and seated at my Pokerstars table.
Secondly, Yankees payroll says they had PLENTY of elite talent before CC Teix and Burnett… They had at least 4 guys who are paid more than any current player in Boston in fact… Jeter Arod Mariano and Giambi
The entire process eleviates the idea of having any player development system and just spending to fix problems. Thats not baseball… I’m sorry. Its not.
YanksFanSince78: I’m guessing you are an insider (or I’d hope so)… Just wanted to let you know you can see the Baseball Prospectus preseason rankings on ESPN Insider this morning.
Projections:
Red Sox: 94 wins and 808 runs scored while allowing just 677… pretty much exactly what I said.
Yankees 92 wins and wild card winners.
Since it will moderate my link, heres the title
A race that gradually adds more horses
PECOTA likes Boston over NY in the AL East — but Tampa and Baltimore are rising
I’m simply saying that I’m not the only one who thinks that Boston will be more than just fine this year. And if they add a big bat midseason, those numbers just go up even more… Please look into your own biases and try to approach things from a logical perspective. The Yankees will not be running away with the AL East in 2010.
I don’t think anyone is doubting the Red Sox will compete.
But let’s be honest, a 2 game difference in predictions by mediocre “experts” is about as useful as a Tiger apology. Last year, many of these “experts” had the Mets winning their division. Some had the Indians and A’s winning their respective divisions – two teams that were much less than impressive this season.
Point being, predictions, especially by the so called experts at ESPN are quite useless.
Again, PECOTA, just another prediction system. It really doesn’t mean anything. I think the Red Sox will win 95-97 games – I also think the Yankees will win 95-97 games.
Considering you called my predictions “delusional”… And then they are the same as ESPN’s… You certainly changed your tone
Bottom line, our rotation absolutely DEMOLISHES the Yankees rotation. The question you as a Yankees fan have to ask, is can you score over 5 runs per game against this pitching/defense. Not to mention I like our outfield depth of Jeremy Hermida who has a high ceiling over guys like Randy Winn… Granted, Hermida hasn’t done much yet, but if he sees some playing time as a pull hitter at Fenway, he could have a solid season.
————-
I won’t bother getting into the whole Yanks vs Boston lineup debate but, in a nutshell, some of the conclusions you make are based off of your opinion and certainly not factual.
Vazquez debate: Is he going to be the dissapointment he was during the 2nd half of 2004 or will be somewhere closer to a 200 IP/3.50-4.00 ERA/200 ko pitcher?
Lackey debate: Is he completely healthy? Will he pitch his 1st 200 IP season since 2007? Can he adapt to pitching in the AL East where he has a career ERA of 5.75 in Fenway Park and 6.75 @ Tropicana Field?
You can make these comparisons all over the place. Games need to be played. However, you’re basing this assumption that the Sox are going to be great off of what? Will? Desire?
Just as Nick Johnson, Vazquez and Grandy have certain question marks I know that Ortiz, Lowell, Scutaro, Lackey, Beltre and Cameron do as well.
here are a few counterlinks for you. Yanksfan, we will argue till the day we die. We see the Yankees approach differently, although you moreso than most are willing to agree you overspend to compensate for bad contracts, bad player development and bad scouting (please dont make me cite examples starting with Igawa and Pavano).
sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3759182
Secondly heres burnett and this is from NY Post which i happen to read every day. Burnetts second highest offer was 4/56 roughly, from the Jays, and it likely had some clauses.
nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/item_whWVc46pkwk1segE4…
I mean, I guess it depends who you like to read, but take my word for it. I dont rely on FoxSports, NBC, and rarely will I turn to a newspaper for valid information regarding baseball. You just wont find a lot of it. Just a tip man… but take it for what its worth. I go based off numbers, what I watch and what I read. I play it as I see it, and as I’ve said, while I tend to disagree with you very often, I have respect for you because you at least attempt to validate your points with something. Thank you.
Clearly you’re not hearing me. Follow the time line. Every link you’ve offered proceeded the one’s I posted. You’r referencing offers made as of Nov 10 2008 whereas the ones I showed from the Braves and Yanks were a month later when the negotiations were at the end. What’s the relevance of posting a link about what the Blue Jays offered when they were never really in on the biddings. The Braves and the Yanks were fighting for AJ to the ink dried on the deal and that was in early/mid Dec not early November, 1 week after the WS ended.
Didn’t say the braves weren’t in. I said that no 80MM contract offer was made. Plain and simple. They may have discussed it, but the Red Sox “discussed” signing Russell Branyan last week… doesn’t mean they made him an offer. And you have yet to respond about CC… Turns out I was more than right, because his second highest offer that was on the table was a 100MM deferred money contract equal to around 80-85MM in present day value. I especially like the part that said exactly what I’ve been telling you which is “the Angels and Dodgers were interested, but they had other priorities” No contract offer again, was made. You have to understand, writers put up these numbers, and then give anonymous sources, which I understand as I have to keep my sources anonymous as well. One of the GM’s yesterday said of the Damon rumors, that there was so much BS surrounding the offers that he has, that he refused to make any comment about it that could contribute… Obviously, much of what goes on is a combination of common sense and speculation.
Did I even go as far as to say Red Sox will win the division? No. In fact I’m not sure we will. I’m simply saying that those of you who act like the Yanks are a sure-in for the World Series again because they added Granderson, Vazquez and Johnson is an idiot. The Sox match up very well and will likely win 95 games. Thats a tough team to compete with.
I’m simply saying stop overstating what Granderson will do. Stop calling Nick Swisher JD Drew. And stop acting like the Yanks didnt overbid on everything they have, and like they wont again overbid on Jeter… Its just nonsense. Thats been the main point. However, its everyone else that keeps going off talking about the Red Sox problems when that is a moot point. To act like Lackey is a question is also dumb. The Sox may not let him throw 200 innings. He’s our number 3. He doesn’t need to rack up 200+. If he racks up 170 with a 3.50 ERA, thats still better than Pettite who will rack up a few more innings with a 4.20 or so… No arguments I think that Lackey is better than Pettite, especially at this point in each of their careers.
Burnett isn’t a question mark, hes a downright disaster. Talking about guys who have 1 good year. Now no one can deny Burnetts stuff. But no one can deny Ollie Perez’s stuff either. Doesn’t always work out the way you want it to. Joba is not projected as a successful starter ever in his career at this point, Buchholz would be slotted as the number 3 if he went to many teams in trade and would have not had as much around him hindering him from succeeding. As well as not playing in the AL East. I’m simply saying pitching we outmatch you. Hitting you outmatch us and defense we outmatch you. Now combine that and its a pretty even playing field unless you don’t believe the Sox can drive in 800+ runs again this year. If thats your point, I politely disagree with you.
You tuly ara a homer aren’t you? Joba is predicted to NOT be a good starter but Buchholz is a legit #3? Really? Wow.
I’m not hear to claim the Yanks will win #28 this year nor am I trying to bash the Sox but CLEARLY you’re basing your post on opinion and nothing more. Both teams have question marks, as do most teams, however you can’t tell me, w/ any certainty, what you can expect for Ortiz, Lowell, Beltre, Cameron, Lackey or Scutaro next year. Scutaro was the only one that performed at an all-star level and that was a career year in his 30’s. Lackey had a great 2nd half but struggled in the 1st half. You have to wait and see how well he’ll adjust to a new team, new ballpark and the AL East.
COmparing AJ to Ollie Perez is simply childish. A disaster? Really? C’mon.
again… here’s from the BP preseason predictions for you
Player Who Could Surprise: Clay Buchholz has tantalized fans with his promise but has yet to find consistent success. Heading into his age-25 season, PECOTA projects Buchholz to pitch 152 innings with a 10-7 record and 3.89 ERA. Behind the top three, Buchholz could provide a nifty bit of production at the back of the rotation.
I can’t think of many teams that wouldn’t take that at #3.
and well… if you enjoy spending almost 17MM a year on a pitcher who will put up a 4.50 ERA and is injury prone… Enjoy. Think about it this way. I don’t think the Sox should offer Beckett any more than they gave Lackey, along with some kind of injury clause again, like Lackey. If I feel Beckett is worth 82.5… how could I possibly value Burnett at 82.5… One is a dominant ace. One is a pitcher with some great stuff, who got it together for one year really. The rest of his seasons were pretty mediocre-subpar. Beckett pitches through so many injuries, yet still winds up putting together a fine season, even last year. Skewed by a couple bad, late starts when the injuries really finally got the best of him, his ERA would have been down quite a bit lower. I don’t know if that helps it make any more sense, but best I can do to explain it to you.
Ortiz, I expect to be Big Papi. I expect him to come back and have a big year. He knows Boston is not going to resign him, at least not before after the season if at all. He wants to maximize his value. He’s healthy. He lost some more weight. I fully expect a line around .270/.370/.510 at least. He started 2 months late with his training, and he picked up almost exactly 2 months into the season and managed to hit around .300 after that point. I don’t think that is coincidence.
As far as your question marks go… Here’s my thoughts
Ortiz – Can be replaced at trade deadline… Easily at that. But I dont expect Ortiz will be the problem. Keep in mind, he didn’t swing a bat last season until almost 2 months later than he usually does. 2 months in until the end, he hit .292 or something and led MLB in homers during MidMay-October.
Lowell – isn’t projected to start. Might DH a bit vs lefties. thats it. Likely wont be a Red Sox opening day if he can prove his health
Scutaro – Big question mark. I agree. But if Lowrie stays healthy, thats a very solid hitter who could have a big rebound year. Solid backup option for this problem.
Lackey – I dont think his health is a question, and if it is, they have a team protection clause if we lose a year be it 2010 or 2014 or any year in between. Not really a big concern, and the depth will make up for it.
Beltre – Just view hittracker, and you will see what I mean. This guy was made for Fenway. If you want to say Granderson is made for Yankees Stadium, take a look at Beltre. Pull hitter with a very nice power stroke. His HR totals at Safeco were just what David Wrights were at CitiField. A fluke that will change.
Cameron – Come on now! Yanks have been chasing Cameron since he turned 25… Cam is a top 5 CF defensively and provides 20 HR power and works the count. He’s I’d say top 10 CF overall in baseball still. Not really a big question mark (prolly right around 10 itself). I can deal with 1 .250 hitter.
None of these are big concerns… Now lets look at Yankees question marks for fun.
Granderson Swisher Gardner outfield – one of them fails or gets hurt, Randy Winn becomes your starting outfielder… and this is assuming you think Gardner will have a better year than Randy Winn.
Vazquez – has had 1 good year in the AL which was in AL Central, which granted was a little stronger when he was there, but still its not the AL East. Backup means Hughes and Joba are both in your rotation or you turn to Gaudin and/or Mitre… That cant compete with Buchholz/Wakefield/Tazawa… sorry if you disagree.
Burnett – Can he get it together? If not, your number 2 looks more like a number 3 or 4.
ARod – Approached already the wrong side of 35… You guys call Ortiz old? The Yankees have most of the oldest players in the AL East. Short of Wake that is… granted.
Sabathia – Can he repeat what he did last season, which admittedly was very good. His career numbers vs Boston as well as Red Sox hitters getting more looks at him would worry me a little more.
And while you guys have guys who are on the way out. Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester, Ellsbury have not even hit their primes yet. Youk has agewise, but the rest are not even there yet and Youks been getting progressively better. I dont see a sudden falloff happening this year.
Cano sure is coming into his prime and is putting up some nice numbers. Not discounting your youngsters and their upside, but we have more with a lot more upside to them. Just my take on the situation but you said best, games have to be played. And anyone who gauges the season by the first 3 games at fenway is crazy. Hopefully my links will post soon so you can see those. They got “moderated”. Just some things about yanks overspending from ESPN and NY Post.
Just absolutely shocked you, or anyone for that matter, can look at this post and say “This is logical.” Looking at the positives for the Red Sox players who are risks, and the negatives for the Yankee players.
I guess that’s an effective way to be a clear homer.
Brett Gardner is a platoon player with Randy Winn over the course of the season dude and they both play terrific defense and are #9 hitters in the 2010 Yankee lineup.
Winn will bat #9 and still had 141 Hits, 33 doubles, 5 triples, 16 steals last season.
Winn and Gardner in a platoon at the bottom of the order will provide speed on offense and off the bench, speed and excellent defense in the field, and late on in close games they are leading, the Yankees can go to a defensive outfield of Winn / Granderson / Gardner that all have speed and terrific defense, in whatever arrangement maximizes the defensive strength.
How do you jump from Vazquez, 1 good year in the AL to Hughes and Joba backup in the rotation, backup for whom, for what. 🙂 Last time I checked Joba pitched more innings than Buchholz despite all the Joba rules placed on him last season.
Vazquez made the All Star team in New York in 2004 when he was at the front of the pitching staff, now he is at the back of it and will be matched up with weaker starters in the #4 spot almost every night. The Yankees don’t need Vazquez to be lights out, they just want double digit wins and 200 innings, something he has done his whole career.
What do you mean can Burnett get it together, the Yankees won the World Series with him. He was just fine last season for the Yankees going 13-9, 4.04 ERA, 207 IP, 193 H, 195 K’, .247 BAA. What does he need to get together exactly.
Arod had more HR’s, RBI’s, better AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS and a much more productive season than Ortiz in 26 less games than Ortiz. Ortiz is a shell of the 1.000 OPS player he was with Manny, but keep trying to relive those days and he somehow isn’t in decline. The season didn’t start in June, it started in April, not two months later.
You would do well to worry about Ortiz whose AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS has been in rapid decline since Manny left and he got exposed as being on the PED list, even though he plays dumb to this day.
Arod had his steroid debacle, hip surgery, miss the first month plus and everyone had him down and out and he came back and put up a 30 HR, 100 RBI season and produced in the playoffs and won a World Series Title.
Sabathia is a bonafide #1 ace in his prime, what do you mean can he repeat what he did last season. Why wouldn’t he. By your reasoning I wouldn’t be too worried about Beckett, Lackey or Matsuzaka because the Yankees have hit them well in their careers.
The only guy that tends to do well consistently against the Yankees is Lester more often than not.
Last season at this time we heard the same lines from the pundits of how the Yankees were old and Sabathia couldn’t get it done in big spots, Burnett was overrated.
On the other hand we were being told how the Red Sox had the deepest rotation ever assembled in history with
Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Smoltz, Wakefield, Penny, Buccholz, etc.
Low risk, high reward by Theo the boy Genius, remember.
Dude you are one homer, I don’t blame you, you’re a Red Sox fan.
But you are living in fantasy world about a team that is the Defending World Series Champions and odds on to repeat in 2010.
The Yankees have the better offense than Boston
Arod and Tex are better in the middle of the order over 162 than Martinez and Youkilis,
In less games Arod had more HR’s and RBI’s than Youkilis and more HR’s and almost as many RBI’s as Martinez in 31 less games.
Granderson has better career AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS splits than Cameron and is 8 years younger and is odds on to have a better season in Yankee Stadium and the lineup he is in.
Cano continues to improve and has more power and OPS than Pedroia, Pedroia peaked in his MVP season 2 years ago. Cano had more hits, higher average, more power and RBI’s, as many doubles and all that with Cano struggling with men on base.
Cano is a legit 30 HR, 100 RBI 2nd baseman if he improves with men in scoring position, considering he hit 25 HR and 85 last season, while being awful with men on base.
Drew is better than Swisher but not by leaps and bounds. Swisher even though he hits for a low AVG and always will, he still has power, a high OBP because he walks a lot. Swisher is also 5 years younger than Drew.
Contrary to what you posted in another post Swisher didn’t benefit from Yankee Stadium he hit 8 HR’s at Home and 21 HR’s Away.
Matter of fact his AVG, SLG and OPS were better away from home, he is the antithesis of Johnny Damon who benefited from Yankee Stadium RF porch.
Jeter is better than Scutaro even in Scutaro’s career season last year at 34.
Winn and Gardner are not individually better than Ellsbury but can certainly combine in a platoon to match his 8 HR, 60 RBI’s, they also have the ability to steal bases, Gardner had 26, Winn had 16. They both are terrific defensively with well above average UZR’s.
On the pitching side you are looking at
Sabathia vs Beckett
Burnett vs Lester
Pettitte vs Lackey
Vazquez vs Matsuzaka
Joba or Hughes vs Buchholz
Gaudin vs Wakefield
Bullpen is
Aceves vs Delcarmen
Robertson vs Ramirez
Marte vs Okajima
Hughes or Joba vs Bard
Rivera vs Papelbon
Yankees look more than good enough to repeat in 2010
Wow sugarcoat much do you
You don’t think Ortiz will be a problem, right
Scutaro is coming off a career year at 34 years of age, if he regresses from a career season of .282, 12 HR and 60 RBI’s what are you really getting. 🙂
Jed Lowrie are you kidding me, Jed Lowrie if healthy, big rebound year, rebound to what, he hasn’t done anything in the majors to rebound to, are you for real.
Lackey is a solid pitcher, but he isn’t unbeatable by any stretch to lose sleep over. The Yankees have hit him in his career.
Beltre, don’t make me laugh at you about that guy. Just keep talking about his defense and leave it be. The guy is a career .270 AVG, .325 OBP, .453 SLG, .778 OPS free swinger who will strike out close to 100 times and walk about 45 times max.
Please, Derek Jeter has better career lines as a shortstop at .317 AVG, .388 OBP, .459 SLG, .847 OPS than Beltre.
Mike Cameron is a 37 year old .250 AVG, .340 OBP, .448 SLG, .788 OPS player in his career. He will give you 25 HR, 75 RBI max over the season, not bad, but nothing scary. He is more than pitchable to.
Curtis Granderson has way better upside for next season, with career lines of .272 AVG, .344 OBP, .484 SLG, .828 OPS and is 8 years younger and despite struggling last season had 30 HR and 71 RBI’s hitting leadoff in Detroit in a pitchers park.
Granderson is also better away from Comerica in his whole career,
2006 Home – .249 AVG, .326 OBP, .389 SLG, .715 OPS, 7 HR, 33 RBI
2006 Away – .271 AVG, .343 OBP, .485 SLG, .828 OPS, 12 HR, 35 RBI
2007 Home – .286 AVG, .351 OBP, .512 SLG, .863 OPS, 10 HR, 36 RBI
2007 Away – .318 AVG, .370 OBP, .592 SLG, .962 OPS, 13 HR, 38 RBI
2008 Home – .277 AVG, .361 OBP, .493 SLG, .854 OPS, 11 HR, 35 RBI
2008 Away – .283 AVG, .368 OBP, .495 SLG, .863 OPS, 11 HR, 31 RBI
2009 Home – .230 AVG, .307 OBP, .388 SLG, .695 OPS, 10 HR, 34 RBI
2009 Away – .267 AVG, .345 OBP, .516 SLG, .861 OPS, 20 HR, 37 RBI
Expect him to have a way better season than Cameron, Granderson is still in his prime at 29, can’t say the same for Cameron, Cameron is what he is at 37, not much bounce back room there.
You can deal with one .250 hitter, ah, aren’t you forgetting Ortiz and his .238 average as well. 🙂
In that Red Sox lineup of
Ellsbury – L
Pedroia – R
Martinez – S
Youkilis – R
Ortiz – L
Beltre – R
Drew – L
Cameron – R
Scutaro – R
once you get past Martinez and Youkilis the rest of those guys are more than pitchable to.
Ortiz is not the same player he was a couple of seasons back
Beltre is a free swinging pull hitter that doesn’t walk
Drew is a decent player but not a wink of sleep is lost about him at the plate, he is more apt to try and walk than take the bat off his shoulder, doesn’t benefit you when Beltre and Cameron are the batters around you. Drew does nothing to make a team alter their approach to pitching him
Cameron – strikes out a ton and is 37 and has had average career numbers, nothing special.
Scutaro – coming off a career season and likely to regress, you don’t just get better at 34 years of age in your career.
Not to mention
Very poor situational hitting
Runners On –
Ortiz – .246 AVG
Beltre – .248 AVG
Drew – .254 AVG
Cameron – .247 AVG
Scoring Position –
Ortiz – .238 AVG
Beltre – .284 AVG
Drew – .213 AVG
Cameron – .233 AVG
Scoring Position and 2 Outs –
Ortiz – .253 AVG
Beltre – .227 AVG
Drew – .280 AVG
Cameron – .232 AVG
Even their career numbers are mediocre in situational hitting
Runners on –
Ortiz: .297/.358/.537
Beltre: .266/.330/.439
Drew: .280/.397/.495
Cameron: .256/.355/.450
Scoring Position –
Ortiz: .298/.403/.526
Beltre: .265/.344/.433
Drew: .280/.397/.496
Cameron: .261/.369/.461
Scoring Position, 2 outs –
Ortiz: .282/.408/.555
Beltre: .240/.350/.407
Drew: .245/.414/.468
Cameron: .255/.378/.447
And Ortiz put up his numbers when Manny was there and he was hitting game winning hits every night in past seasons. That is over.
If those are the numbers Boston has to look forward to for a team that will be relying on pitching and defense and winning close games, then good luck with that situational hitting if the guys name isn’t Martinez and Youkilis, Pedroia to a lesser extent when in Fenway because he benefits from that park as his career splits show
2009 –
Home – .318 AVG, .388 OBP, .514 SLG, .902 OPS, 99 H, 29 2B, 10 HR, 46 RBI
Away – .273 AVG, .355 OBP, .381 SLG, .736 OPS, 86 H, 19 2B, 5 HR, 26 RBI
2008 –
Home – .344 AVG, .393 OBP, .519 SLG, .912 OPS, 110 H, 35 2B, 7 HR, 43 RBI
Away – .309 AVG, .359 OBP, .468 SLG, .827 OPS, 103 H, 19 2B, 10 HR, 40 RBI
2007 –
Home – .351 AVG, .410 OBP, .502 SLG, .912 OPS, 93 H, 25 2B, 5 HR, 32 RBI
Away – .282 AVG, .349 OBP, .380 SLG, .729 OPS, 72 H, 14 2B, 3 HR, 18 RBI
Does that leave any doubt as to where benefits him.
You may talk up that Boston pitching and defense but their sticks come up short in the AL East. That lineup isn’t scaring anyone.
Just gonna use 2009 FIP ..
Lester – 3.15
Sabathia – 3.39
Beckett – 3.63
Burnett – 4.33
Lackey – 3.73
Vasquez – 2.77
Matsuzaka – 5.09
Pettitte – 4.15
Joba/Hughes – 4.82/3.22
Buchholz/Wakefield – 4.69/4.58
So Boston’s rotation doesn’t absolutely demolish Yankees’ rotation but they do have the edge.
Which has been the contention all along, even if the Boston rotation is better it is not to a degree that can overtake the Yankees over the season.
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte
Vazquez
Joba/Hughes
is still quality enough combined with the Yankees offense to take the division once again.
The Yankees have hit Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka well in their careers. They aren’t untouchable against the Yankees.
Matsuzaka won 18 games and pitched 167 innings a couple of seasons ago. Dude is a 5 inning pitcher.
No Yankee pitcher last season had some exceptional season that cannot be duplicated, with the exception of Vazquez in Atlanta, who doesn’t need to duplicate what he did in Atlanta.
Sabathia – 19-8, 3.37 ERA
Burnett – 13-9, 4.04 ERA
Pettitte – 14-8, 4.16 ERA
Vazquez – 15-10, 2.87 ERA
Joba – 9-6, 4.75 ERA
Wang was terrible then out for the season and Joba was the #4 essentially, so even if Vazquez goes 14-11, 4.50 ERA that is better than what the Yankees got out of that spot last season.
Yes the Red Sox pitching is slightly better and they improved on defense but not to any degree that will alter the standings, especially when combined with their offensive dropoff of removing Bay from the heart of their lineup, when he led the team in HR’s, RBI, BB’s, Total Bases and was second in slugging and OPS.
The Yankees also improved on defense and pitching by signing Winn to platoon with Gardner and trading for Granderson and adding Javier Vazquez to deepen the rotation.
With Cameron they got older on offense and far less production, Cameron is better defensively but who replaces Bay’s numbers in the heart of the order.
Not to mention Bay was terrific with men in scoring position for Boston
Runners On – .278 AVG, .403 OBP, .592 SLG, .995 OPS (255 at bats)
Scoring Position – .360 AVG, .492 OBP, .676 SLG, 1.168 OPS (139 at bats)
Bases Loaded – .533 AVG, .591 OBP, .600 SLG, 1.191 OPS (15 at bats)
Scoring Position and 2 Outs – .333 AVG, .511 OBP, .507 SLG, 1.018 OPS (69 at bats)
Who replaces that kind of clutch production that Bay provided, certainly not Cameron or Beltre or Ortiz or Drew and Victor Martinez AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS all declines as a full time catcher, which he will be next season when compared to playing 1B.
@ Beckett/Lackey/Lester
You are, if nothing else, mildly amusing and completely baffling. The link you offered to counter my claim that the Braves offered 5/$80 was dated 12/4. My link is dated 12/10. The Braves offered 4/60, Yanks then offered a 4 year deal, the Braves countered by guaranteeing a 5th year and the Yanks came back with the closing offer for 5 years w/ a slightly greater avg ($500,000 more per year). That’s not something worth me making up.
As far as CC is concerned the Brewers offer was on the table for a couple of weeks. Regardless, it’s not as if the Brewers would’ve of balked at re-introducing the offer had Sabathia wanted to sign it. It’s not like they went out and signed anyone else with that $100 mil. The Angels were focused on signing Tex and the Dodgers were focused on Manny. They each showed interest in Sabathia but neither made offers which were made public. According to Heyman the Angels at some point made an offer to Sabathia. All I can do is offer links (aka PROOF!!!!) of what insiders say. If you choose to base your posts on your opinion, then go ahead.
Clearly, the Yanks, and other teams, make mistakes and bid against themselves (see Dodgers w/ Manny, Mets with Bay, Yanks w/ Arod and Sox w/ Lackey). Don’t take it personal. I just choose to call you out on the examples you mentioned with CC and AJ because I knew facts that were written about on both occasions, especially the one with AJ. That was literally “blow by blow” converage that was covered extensively here on this site.
Finally, you said this…
“LASTLY, the Yankees have failed to do what Boston’s done, and Cashman admitted it on NoMaas.org in his interview. Develop a farm system that keeps the flow going so that you dont HAVE to spend 200MM forever. The Yankees ranked 27th in baseballs farm systems this year I believe? Maybe it was 24th? I don’t remember the exact ranking, but it was the bottom end. There is no one coming up to relieve any salary. The Yankees will forever be a 200MM payroll team. The Sox are doing it for one year while waiting for contracts to expire. There’s a huge difference. By 2012, if our payroll is 150, I’d be shocked considering the talent thats coming up.”
First, the Yanks will always be one of the highest salaried team in baseball and I truly wonder why people act as if that’s a negative. If baseball wins were based on who gets the most bang for their buck then the Marlins or Twins would probably win each year. Yanks put a premium on contending each year and fielding the best team possible. That translates into acquring and RETAINING top talent which equals long term financial commitments.
However, with regard to their farm rankings which varies from anywhere from 15-25 depending on who you ask, consider this. A few years ago when they were among the better farm teams they had
Joba Chamberlain (mlb starter)
Phil Hughes (mlb starter)
Alfredo Alceves (mlb starter)
Ian Kennedy (Grandy deal)
Austin Jackson (Grandy deal)
Dave Robertson (mlb starter)
Brett Gardner (mlb starter)
Jose Tabata (Nady deal)
Arrodys Viazcaino (Vazquez deal)
Mike Dunn (Vazquez deal)
Ross Ohlendorf (Nady deal)
Jeff Marquez (Swisher deal)
Simply looking at BA Jan 2008 listing of their top 10 prospects that includes their #1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 and 9 prospects from 2 years ago. That’s a lot of turn over. However, those players are now either integral parts of the mlb team (Joba, Hughes, Gardner, Robertson and Aceves) or were used to acquire other integral parts of the 2010 team (Granderson and Vazquez). Also, I take organizational rankings with a grain of salt. You have the very best of the best (top 5 rankings) and the very worst of the worst (bottom 5 rankings). In between you have organization with players at varying levels of developement. For the Yankees, aside from Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero and Zack McAllister, most of their top talents were in A ball or lower or recently drafted. Quite easily those players such as DJ Mitchell, David Phelps, Andrew Brackman, Austin ROmine, Dave Adams, etc can duplicate or prove themselves at higher levels and raise the rankings of the organization as a whole. I’m not too worried about that. Yanks have done a very good job of fielding competive teams, filling needs internally and developing young talent over the past few years. They’ve also wisely acquired young veteran talents such as Granderson, Swisher, Texeira and Sabathia that should serve us well in the next couple of years.
Using a teams payroll situation is only relevant if that team is bogging itself down with questionable talents signed to immovable contracts (see Chicao Cubs, San Francisco Giants). As bad as Pavano’s deal was, it didn’t come close to handicapping the Yanks as it was “only” a 4 year deal at $10 mil per as opposed to Barry Zito’s at 7/$126 mil. While trimming the payroll is a good move the more important objective is to maintain payroll flexibility. The Yanks can survive quite comfortably at $160-$200 mil so long as they don’t sign too many more 7-10 year megal deals. But if the Yanks, with Arod, Tex and Sabathia already tied into big deals, can pick and choose wisely who they committ to long term then they’ll be fine. Hopefully, Cervelli, Montero or ROmine will step in when Posada retires. Hopefully, Brett Gardner can hold his own in LF. Hopefully, Hughes can take over for Pettite next year. The Yanks are in a very good place right now.
“The Yankees could add Chan Ho Park, who the Cubs and Rays are eyeing, too.”
As a Yankee fan, I really really hope Chan Ho Park signs with the Cubs or Rays.