When the Red Sox signed John Lackey earlier this offseason, many wondered if Josh Beckett's time in Boston was coming to an end. Beckett's $12.1MM option for 2010 vested in early September, though with Lackey joining incumbents Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield, the Sox could probably afford to let Beckett walk after the season instead of giving him a huge payday.
Beckett will turn 30 in May, and during his four years in Boston he's posted a 4.05 ERA in 122 starts, twice appearing in an All Star Game and once winning the World Series. His 4.38 K/BB ratio over the last three seasons trails only Mariano Rivera, Kevin Slowey, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay, while his 3.28 xFIP lags behind only Tim Lincecum among starters in that time. The performance is not an issue, but as WEEI.com's Rob Bradford writes, the health of Beckett's shoulder might be.
We've already heard that Boston would probably use Halladay's three-year, $60MM deal (minus $6-8MM) as a guideline for a Beckett extension instead of Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM deal. However if he has a strong 2010 season, it shouldn't be too hard for Beckett to find more than that on the free agent market, even in this economic climate.
What do you think the Sox should do with Beckett after the season? Offer him the long-term deal he probably deserves, or hold the line like they did with Jason Bay and take him back on their terms only? Aces in their prime don't exactly flood the market, after all.
I think that he’s probably worthy of a multi-year deal. That said, Boston should probably let him go and focus their attention and dollars elsewhere, like their lineup, especially if some of their minor league pitching matures as it should.
Then again, I’m not exactly a Red Sox expert, so what the hell do I know.
“Probably worthy of a multi-year deal”? I’m not Beckett fan but that guy deserves a big check and multiple years.
The idea that the RS will use Halladay’s contract as a guideline is probably an instance of posturing. If Beckett is as good as he was in 2007, the RS will probably come off that position fairly quickly.
I’d give him 5 years 90MM if he has a good season but their has to be some kind of clause if his shoulder acts up. The Red Sox can’t let the guy walk. Also, this isn’t a small market team…If Beltre declines his player option of if they work out a trade, They can acquire a big bat.
“the Sox could probably afford to let Beckett walk after the season instead of giving him a huge payday.”
The guy is a huge part of the Red Sox recent success. He is also pitching is the AL East. Suppose he went to the Diamondbacks for example (just for example) he would have so much more success. The Sox can’t afford to let him go while aside from Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and possibly Javier Vazquez and Ted Lilly, there isn’t much from the Sox to pick from. We also don’t know what Dice-K and Wakefield will give us so I think that the Red Sox NEED to re-sign him. If they give him some type of deal where he would get John Lackey money but his injury history is a concern. When he is on, he is one of the best in Baseball and the Red Sox have to lock him up.
We know what Wakefield will give us…hes the most consistent pitcher the red sox have. In the NL his era would be like 3.50 probably or even less maybe, hes a great pitcher though I’d like to see him get resigned.
He is not the most consistent pitcher on the Sox at all
I believe if he’s anything short of lights out, the BoSox will deal him at the deadline.
so if the Sox are in contention they just deal their ace without even thinking about the postseason?
I think Lester is the ace these days. I would just think if they hear the right offer from an NL team at the deadline and Lester, Lackey, Dice-K, Buchholz, and Wakefield are on their A-game I think it would make sense.
Beckett is the ace…The Red Sox value him very much as an ace and If Dice-K and Wakefield are on their a-games, why not trade one of them? Beckett has had post-season success where as Dice-K and Wake have not as much success. Also, 6 pitchers won’t all be on their A-Game because rotations consist of 5 men only. If the Sox re-sign Beckett, They could get a big bat at the deadline by trading Bucholz and others.
Trading Wake or Dice-K may be one of the stupidest suggestions I have ever read. Basically, you are advocating trading the most loyal player on the team or you are saying we should totally screw up our chances at ever signing another Japanese player (loyalty factor). I realize Theo and Co. have put their foot down and cut ties with the sentimental value, but Wake isn’t someone you trade. And with Dice-K bringing interest to our team from every FA Japanese pitcher, why would you want to give that up? Beckett would bring in much more, and we probably wouldn’t lose much. Especially if Clay gets it together this year
Why oh Why oh Why would you trade your ace if you are going to the post-season? That is like the Phillies trading Jayson Werth mid-season if they are in 1st place by 14.0 games.
Wakefield…Okay. But if Dice-K repeats last years season I can’t imagine the Sox just stand pat. Dice-K being traded will have nothing to do with signing japanese players in the future.
Matsuzaka has a full-no trade clause. He doesn’t have a lot of value to other teams. Like Joseph Fried said, he attracts Japanese baseball player (ex Tazawa). He’s like a superstar in Japan.
Wakefield has a full no trade clause, and I don’t see him waving it.
The smart thing to do would be letting Beckett leave and collect the draft picks after 2010, unless Bucholz doesn’t pitch as good as advertised or the sox are so down in 2010 that they decide to sell at the deadline (unlikely).
Mario;
Wake has had a 1 year ongoing contract at 4mil per until this year and has never had a no trade clause..He might have the right to decline,not because of a no trade but because hes been on the team so long..with 40+mil off the books after the year,I could see them keeping Beckett and signing him long term with a safety clause in the contract if shoulder problems should arise..Im not sure why so many sox “fans” are wanting to let him go..Hes been a top 5 pitcher in mlb the past 4 years..Look at ALL the numbers..It would be foolish IMO to let him go..Unless his arm falls off this year of course..
Wake has 10-5 rights, so essentially a no trade clause.
Again, I highly doubt they have any intent of trading Dice-K, simply because that is a big no-no with Japanese players. It’s basically like kicking dirt in their face. It is dishonorable to them, and trading one of their icons away would only make us a very undesirable place for Japanese free agents.
And as stated, we have 6 starters right now. Buchholz has ace potential, Lester will be the ace when Beckett walks, Lackey who was an ace of sorts on the Angels, and Dice-K and Wake could be the 4 and 5. Thats still a formidable rotation. If we are contending and get offered an unbelievable package, I would instantly take it if those 5 are performing pretty well. Even if we keep him and let him walk, we get 2 first round draft picks. It’s pretty much a win/win
not a sox fan right? apart from the fact that no one would really want either for anything worthwhile at this point in time, Dice-K has his value to the sox in particular, and Wakefield is the absolute face of the franchise, and will retire as a red sox.
Agreed all these “baseball fans” who aren’t Red Sox fans are making really stupid comments about trading Wakefield. Wakefield will never be traded, he is the most loyal player I have ever seen and will retire on the Sox.
Beckett is NOT the ace. Beckett is the team leader. He’s a great guy to mock as far as work outs and work ethic, but he is definitely not the ace. If he was the ace, he would have started game 1 vs the Angels. And that’s the most recent decision we can go off of. You start your ace in game 1. Lester, as of right now, is the ace. If Beckett starts game 1 of the season, he’s the ace, but until then, its Lester.
That is a dumb definition of Ace.
Wrong wrong wrong. The pitcher who starts game 1 is the hottest pitcher at the time. The Ace starts opening day
Are you kidding me?!? You’re saying that if Wakefield was on fire, you’d start him over Lester and Beckett in game one?? That’s absurd. You start your ace. Your “best pitcher”. Please, Please define “ace” for me. Because if you say it’s the “best pitcher on the team” as I would assume you would say, then its Lester. Sure, Beckett won 18 and Lester won 16. But what about this. In only 9 fewer innings, Lester let up 14 fewer earned runs, 19 fewer total runs, struck out 26 more hitters, had an ERA of 0.45 less than Beckett, and gave up 5 fewer HR. So Beckett won 2 more games than Lester because he had more run support. Now please, make a case that Beckett should be the ace, because you don’t have one. Ace pitchers put up better stats. Done. Oh, and ReverandBlack, is that a better definition?
No.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=510&positi…
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&posit…
No. Posting links isn’t allowed, so you’ll have to google Fangraphs yourself. Remember to scroll past “standard” statistics.
I love fangraphs. One of my favorites. But don’t you think that your ace would be worth more than your #2?? Why would Lester be worth 25.1mil last year while Becket was worth 23.9mil?? Lester is the ace, and fangraphs has taken into consideration all of his assets to determine his worth. He’s worth 1.2mil more than Beckett. I wouldn’t say Becket is a number 2. I’d put him at a 1A, but Lester is the ace.
Because fangraphs is perfect? Seriously though, I’m not sure I understand the point here. Both are very good and both would be Opening Day starters on a number of teams. 1 and 1a in whatever order you prefer.
I’m not saying fangraphs is perfect. Nobody is. ReverendBlack is the one who said to look at fangraphs and I’m telling him that Lester is worth more via the site he suggested. Beckett has been very inconsistent the past few years, whereas Lester has been very good. Thats why I put Lester 1, Becket 2. And apparently Francona agrees with me because thats how he made the postseason rotation.
Yes, why don’t you take a little trip back in time to the ’03 ALCS. Wasn’t Pedro our “ace” and wasn’t it Wakefield who started game 1?
it really depends on the status of the team. if they need the power at the time then they might consider it. but if beltre gives us 20 or more homeruns and papi gos back to 30 or more homeruns then we might not need to trade beckett. personally id like to see him stay.
You really can’t be serious>??? That might be the dumbest thing I have ever seen posted on here aside from maybe Lars Anderson going to the Padres in an Adrian trade.
Oh I’m sorry, what winning franchise are you the GM for that you can make that judgement? This is just hot stove talk.
I think Boston should have traded Nick Green for Alex Rodriguez at the deadline last year. Wait, you think that’s unlikely? Oh I’m sorry, what winning franchise are you the GM for that you can make that judgement? This is just hot stove talk.
I think I’m entitled to be smart when being called stupid. It’s not the worst idea to sell Beckett as trade bait if they need a bat come the deadline, especially if they are unable to extend him. I’m not saying it will or should happen (personally, I don’t care because I’m not a Red Sox fan).
No way is Beckett dealt unless the Sox tank (ala Mets of 2009).
4 years 65 mil with an option for a 5th thats based on certain achievements during the course of the contract will most likely be what gets done.
so you give him less than what John Lackey got?
5 years 65 and the 5th year option is a slight increase to something like 18 mil making the total contract 83 mil over 5 years. I wasn’t even thinking of Lackey when I made it I just used common sense. I know theo will take the 2 picks from whomever if 16.25 mil a year with a 5th option for 18 isn’t good enough.
That could make sense but If Beckett has a good season watch him demand 90MM guaranteed.
If he has a good season then my original 65 gets turned into 75 for 4 with an option for a 5th thats will be harder to achieve but in the 20+Mil range.
okay makes sense but we have to see him have that good season first. I also think the Orioles could be in on him if he hits free agency but back to his contract, I’m going to stay with 4/72MM with an option. (Jake Peavy’s contract plus a year)
Beckett has a 4.05 ERA with the red sox and everybody is talking about him like he is an ace. The pitching is so diluted in baseball and the type of salary a pitcher like him can command is crazy. If you wonder why the ticket prices are out of control, so is the parking, food and souviners this is why. On top of that a pitcher who is called an ace allows over 4 earned runs a game.this is the product of expansion, you have lots of pitchers over the last 30 years or so who would have never made it to the majors
prior to expansion. Now if a pitcher gives up three runs in six innings it is called a quality start. This is my opinion.
Since 2007:
Greinke 553.2 IP 149 ERA+
Halladay 710.1 IP 141 ERA+
F. Hernandez 629.2 IP 133 ERA+
Lackey 563.2 IP 129 ERA+
Sabathia 593.1 IP 129 ERA+
Beckett 587.1 IP 126 ERA+
He’s also been in the top 8 in the AL in terms of both xFIP and WAR for the past three years (#2 in 2007).
There’s plenty of room for debate about whether or not it is worth it for Boston to bring him back long-term. There is no room for debate about whether or not he’s an ace.
A 4.05 era is not an ace.
Except when it is.
Jake Peavy in ’06, Felix Hernandez in ’07, Tim Hudson in ’00, Pedro Martinez in ’04 Carlos Zambrano in ’07.
If he has a big year, and i mean big as in ’07 mirror image, someone will bid against themselves and give him 6/108. Most likely I see him getting 4/72 from Boston.
This guy pretty much screams Cubs or Dodgers if he becomes trade bait mid-season. As a free agent, I’m thinking lower level teams that need young help that can lead. Blue Jays or Pirates maybe?
Yeah I’m sure Josh Beckett can’t sleep at night because he’s wondering how to approach Theo and let him know that he wants to play for a team that has had 17 straight seasons of sub-500 Baseball. I’ll say the Rangers if he hits free agency.
let me rephrase that. If the Red Sox don’t give him a good deal, then I think a low level team will give him one causing him to give Theo the finger during his press conference after he puts on the Pirates/Blue Jays/Royals…etc jersey
I just can’t see Beckett going to a team that doesn’t have a chance to compete. This isn’t Tony Gwynn or Joe Mauer. This is Josh Beckett who simply wants to win.
this is probably an empty discussion anyway lol I’m sure either the Red Sox will bring him back or the Yankees will see him as a “Yankee kindof guy” or “A guy that just belongs in the Bronx” and give him a 400 million dollar deal for 4 years yadda yadda yadda business as usual
We will see how Beckett does this season.
He’s exactly what the Mets need right now. BoSox want Fernando Martinez right?
The Sox have no need for Fernie right now. If they opt out of Drews contract or DH Drew it would make perfect sense if they could also get rid of Papi but The Sox are not trading Beckett man I can promise everybody that. The sox have a good shot to make the Post season and there is no reason to unload Beckett on order for Younger players and what not. There goal has to be to lock him up.
Was just kidding really. But it’s not like they haven’t let their all stars leave in the past… Garciaparra, Bay (that’s all I got). I don’t think the Red Sox get attached to their players like some teams do. Also, they aren’t short on starting pitching.
Yeah but with a chance to win, you can’t trade a valuable piece to the puzzle. Not only do we not know what the Sox are going to get from Dice K and Wake but a postseason rotation of Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Bucholz, and a 162 game rotation of that plus dice k is something you can’t get rid of.
So Mauer doesn’t “want to win”?
The Twins can win
If he signs with the Pirates, I will march up and down the streets of Pittsburgh naked with a flag of Beckett’s face. I will also send flowers and chocolates to Neal, Frank, and Bobby Nutting every single week.
Well I wouldn’t plan on going to Godiva or the flower shop anytime soon if I were you.
lol, wow
It would be a horrible idea for the Sox not to break the bank for Beckett.
First off, there is probably more injury risk in Lackey and in Wakefield than there is in Beckett. I don’t understand all this hooplah about his injury risk (what was it, shoulder?). If the Sox are so concerned about the pitchers they have holding up, they should have never signed Lackey in the first place. In the past two seasons, he has started 24 and 27 games. With the exception of 2008, Beckett has made at least 30 starts a year for the Sox. Dice-K is a 5 inning pitcher that relies on a good defense and a rested bullpen for him to get a win, and has had injury problems in the past as well.
Second, losing Beckett SIGNIFICANTLY weakens the Sox rotation (duh). They have no immediate replacement, unless Kelly rockets through the system and comes up to the club. There is no free agent that would replace him for cheaper, either. Yeah, there could be Lee, but he’ll probably command more money, and Beckett is the better choice in that case.
The Sox can afford to go over the luxury threshold. If it’s for a pitcher like Beckett, they should do so.
Offer him a deal better than Lackey’s. Yes, better. Since he is far better than Lackey is. It was a mistake to offer Lackey so much money, and now they’ll have to pay for it.
yeah, shoulder once & every once in a while he misses a start because of a blister that he gets on his throwing hand, no one should be dissing him for missing a start here & there for that, i know how it feels, it hurts
IIRC the blister problem was due to his being misused in Florida and has never resurfaced in Boston.
They believe Buchholz to be top-of-the-rotation quality. If so, that replaces Beckett.
That alone does not necessarily mean they should not sign him. It just means “they have no immediate replacement” is false and not a factor anymore.
No, because you are still down a man in the rotation in that case. Buccholz has yet to prove he can be effective over a full season, so i think the Sox are putting a bit too much stock into him right now.
Plus, why let Beckett walk like that and have to sign some back-end guy when you can lock Beckett up and have Buch as your number 3/4?
Down a man from what? This year, sure. But you have a better rotation than ’09, which was a playoff year.
And the answer to your question is the obvious one: 3/4 guys cost a lot less, both in dollars and years. Why do you want to pay your #4 that much? Marginal utility bro.
Down a man in terms of the amount of pitchers you would have if Beckett walked.
Marginal utility is a good point (I’m an Econ major, I know all about it =P) But, then again, you have to look at two factors:
1-You’re assuming that Buch remains healthy, pans out how he is supposed to, then keeps that success running. Those are a lot of ifs. Can he do it? Sure. However, with the staying power the Yanks have, the progress the Rays are making, and with the stellar talent the Orioles have, is that a risk the Sox can take?
2-You also have to account for who you use as a free agent to make that replacement. Ignore Cliff Lee, because it would make no sense to let Beckett go and sign him (I believe Beckett is better even if the numbers don’t show it, simply because he’s been doing it in the AL East, and you would probably get Beckett for cheaper than Lee). The free agent class for pitching next year: mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.ht…
Scroll down to starters.
Yes, there are innings eaters on the list that can post a mid-4 ERA (that’s in general, but in the AL East? Who knows). The class just doesn’t seem strong enough to justify letting Beckett walk and going after someone else. Lilly is 35 and coming off an injury year right now, and has been pitching in a relatively average-below average offensive division. Maybe Javier Vazquez, but he’ll be pretty up there in years as well, and it remains to be seen if he’s going to be better this time around now that he’s healthy.
There are just too many if’s associated with letting Beckett go. After the fiasco the Sox had last year with pitching, I don’t know if Theo sees it as a good idea to try those if’s again. I’m also big on taking the guarantee rather than the chance.
Big chance for Omar Minaya to make a big splash in the off-season and actually do somethinig to help his team…
That’s what I’m looking for. All we kept hearing about was the “lack of talent” in this years FA class and a fluctuating spending limit. Maybe all that money saved is already reserved for big time pushes for some of next years FAs like Beckett, Cliff Lee, resigning Reyes.
Reyes has an option.
Indeed he does. Good thing you were paying attention.
you bet.
just out of pure curiosity is it a player option or a team option? If it’s a player option, how does will it vest?
$11m club option with a $500k buyout.
he’ll be back, unless Ruben Tejada has the most dominant minor league season in the history of everything
So basically, he’ll be back.
Agreed, but it’s not going to happen this offseason, if it happens at all it will be after the All Star break and only then if BoSox are not in contention. Watch our minor league depth get flushed by Theo if it happens too.
Verlander deal should be used for comparison, but obviously paying Lackey 82.5m isn’t going to set a very good precedent
No it shouldn’t. Verlander was not a free agent when he signed his deal.
Not to mention Verlander isn’t even 27 yet and has pitched 200+ ip the past 3 years.
I love beckett and cannot forget 07, but lester is clearly the ace. Now we will have lackey, lester and buchholz for the extended future. if the demands are too much i say let him walk and make a run at either webb or lee. Granted neither are a guarantee but next offseason for us is big with both victor tek being free agents…i know tek is gone…papi leaving unless he finds a time machine. So we have possibly 4+ spots to fill, DH, C, 3b depending on beltre. I would rather the sox go after the other two and come back to beckett worst case scenario.
If they don’t at least match Lackey’s offer then I don’t suspect he will be back. That would show a serious lack of faith on Boston’s part. Beckett will be a year younger than Lackey was when he signed his contract so I don’t see much of a reason why they wouldn’t at least match the offer to what Lackey received. Having said that they could just as well decide they don’t need him and let him walk. Its up to Theo and what he wants to do.
It would be pretty amazing if Beckett accepted less than Lackey; he certainly doesn’t need to.
That said, offering him more money for fewer years seems wiser to me.
I am in agreement with you. Its up to Theo and Beckett and what they both are looking for. At his age though I’m guessing Beckett will want the long term deal.
The Red Sox simply can’t let Beckett “walk.” I liked Bay but can deal with his loss, I think the team will surprise a lot of people without him. I couldn’t look the other way if Beckett isn’t extended. He means too much to the team. There is absolutely NO reason why they can’t financially handle it. He deserves Lackey/Burnett money as a start for talks.
Beckett is the main reason Hanley Ramirez is not playing SS for the Sox. That alone should be enough.
Pay him whatever the hell he wants and get the medical clause. He’ll take that, I bet.
Don’t see how they can justify giving Lackey that contract and then being cheap with Beckett. I guess that injury clause in Lackey’s contract is pretty significant.
It’s really not. Lackey is absolutely guaranteed $85.5 million. The oft-cited ‘injury clause’ is only so the Sox can have an option for a 6th year at the league minimum. And that’s basically only if Lackey gets TJ surgery, and in that case, it’s highly likely he’ll retire by the end of his contract anyway.
You really can’t see this?
The team will be significantly different at the time of Beckett’s negotiation than the time of Lackey’s. If their needs change, so does Beckett’s value to them.
Now that Halliday and now it looks like Maurer is off the table I say give the guy what he deserves.
Halliday= halladay + holliday
????
not to mention Maurer!
It’s an interesting case. On one hand you can look to Roy Halladay’s deal and say that the two cases are very similar – so Beckett’s value is the three year, $60 Million deal that Halladay signed for. On the other hand you look at what the Sox just signed John Lackey to (5 years and around $85 Million) and say that should be Beckett’s value given a similar makeup and age – keeping in mind the clauses in Lackey’s contract for health. Verlander and King Felix signed extensions that compared to Lackey, but they are much younger and were not entering contract years. I say that Beckett deserves the same contract that Lackey signed for and I will be very upset if the Red Sox don’t offer that. If Beckett leaves the Red Sox for less than $90 Million I will be more upset about his departure than any other player in the past 10 years. They can’t let this guy walk.
this is why the Red Sox Suck as a franchise, ABSOLUTELY NO LOYALTY TO ANYONE. PEDRO GAVE THEM THE BEST YEARS OF HIS CAREER WHAT DID THEY DO? LET HIM WALK, MANNY RAMIREZ WON THEM A WORLD SERIES WHAT DID THEY DO? TRADED HIM, MIKE LOWELL WAS INSTRUMENTAL AND WON THE WORLD SERIES MVP FOR THEM WHAT DID THEY TRY TO DO THIS OF SEASON? TRADE HIM TO TEXAS. JASON BAY WAS THE BEST PLAYER ON THEIR TEAM LAST YEAR AND WHAT DID THEY DO? OFFER HIM A HORRIBLE CONTRACT. JETER, POSADA, PETTITT AND RIVERA WILL ALWAYS BE YANKEES NO MATTER HOW GOOD OR BAD OF A YEAR THEY HAVE.
That is why the Red Sox succeed as a franchise. They place the team before the player, winning before ego catering.
ohhh yeahhhh right kinda like how they put the team before babe ruth right? or better yet i forgot they were the one with 28 championships and the yankees only have 7. Lets not get a head of ourselves here last time i check the yankees won two champion in the last decade and so did the redsox. The Yankees also made the playoffs every year since 2000 (except for 2008) i dont think you can say the same for the red sox. So you tell me what philosophy seems to be more successful
I was referring to the current regime only – Theo and company. Also, Yankees can afford to overpay for past performance when they have such an extreme budget.
It would have been a huge mistake (in terms of winning games) to keep Pedro, Nomar, etc.
Boston’s aren’t exactly paying its players pennies to play ball either, that “oh its the budget” excuse is so over used and is only done by cry babies. How about when the Yankee lost in 2008? i didn’t hear any complaining then. The reason why Yankees can afford to but a talented ball club to together is because they have a strong fan base who go out and spend money not only on tickets, but apparel as well. Its now the Yankees fault that your owners are too cheap to invest in your club and would rather pocket the money to buy their mansions and yachts. There is an account call “retained earning” in accounting. I suggest you look it up
I heard lots of complaing in 2008. It’s why the club went into a panic and signed the 3 biggest FAs available on the market.
My point is that the Yankees budget allows them the luxury to overpay aging players, which would be bad business sense for most teams that put winning first.
One, I seem to remember Pettitte going to the Astros for a couple years, so that invalidates your theory about him never leaving New York just a bit. Two, the Red Sox will be laughing all the way to the World Series if what you say is true, because in two to three years those four guys will be extra baggage, and will be stealing crucial at-bats from younger players, and bringing down a pretty damn good Yankees team to a decent one. I loved Garciaparra, he was one of my favorite players. When he was traded I definitely was unhappy, but hey. We won the Series that year. Every trade of a likable player has worked out well, as well as each decision to let players go. I trust the front office to do what’s best for the team…now that I saw what their Plan B was after Bay, I’m really glad we let him walk. I’m excited for Red Sox ’10!
Andy might have went to the Astros but at least we had the decency to bring him back even though we didnt have to. Plus the red sox laugh all the way to the world series? lol you must be kidding right? The yankees won with a three man rotation with Damon (a aging left fielder) and Matsui (a guy who could not run the bases). They went out and got Granderson ( who will hit just as many home runs as Matsui and is healthier) and Johnson (Who is ten times better than Damon). Plus they updated the pitching staff with a guy who finished 4th in the cy young in the NL. Lmao the sox gave up there best player in and and got Lackey who era is of 3.00 last year, beltre who hit 8 home runs with a .250 ave and cameron who swings like my grandma with a av of .233 and strikes out a ton. good luck with even making the playoffs. (Lakcey will be a flop)
To me, Beckett is a MUST sign. I give him the 5 yr., $90MM+ right now and take this off the table. We can’t play chicken little with every player and Josh has been very good both on and off the field for us. To me, the Cafardo suggestion is a recipe for failure. I’d ignore it and SIGN him.
So if Buchholz pans out and you already have Lester and Lackey, you MUST have Beckett for FIVE more years or the rotation goes to hell? Doubt it.
I really enjoy Beckett, but that has nothing to do with whether or not he should be brought back.
I didn’t suggest that the rotation “goes to hell” without him, Reverend. “If” Buchholz pans out is a big “if.” Assuming Buch does do well in the first half of 2010, with Beckett locked in, we are far more able to trade Buch and/or other young pitching for a hitter like A-Gonz, or some other highly prized middle of the line up type guy. Beckett is a stable workhorse that gives lots of innings, 15+ wins on average and the occasional Cy-worthy year. His history of dominance in the post-season is impressive. And seeing him in pinstripes or wearing a halo would kill me. There are many very good reasons to sign him to a long-term deal.
First of all, I would like to see Beckett resigned. You have it to spend, so spend it. But if spending is an issue, there may be very good reasons to let him walk.
“I didn’t suggest that the rotation “goes to hell” without him, Reverend.”
You said he is a MUST sign, which to me means the team will not be ok without him. What did you mean? Everybody’s fine without him, but they MUST sign him anyway? Why?
“Assuming Buch does do well in the first half of 2010, with Beckett locked in, we are far more able to trade Buch and/or other young pitching for a hitter like A-Gonz, or some other highly prized middle of the line up type guy.”
The Padres can’t afford Gonzalez, but they wan’t an established Buccholz a year before he goes to arbitration? No. If Buccholz pitches like an ace, you give Beckett’s money to him (assuming they only want to pay for one of the two).
“Beckett is a stable workhorse that gives lots of innings, 15+ wins on average and the occasional Cy-worthy year. His history of dominance in the post-season is impressive.”
Was. And history, yes. The Red Sox are not concerned with what he has been but what he will likely be. If they do have doubts about his performance over 5 years (do you imagine his FB will still sit at 95 in 4 years? 5?), the money may be better spent elsewhere.
“There are many very good reasons to sign him to a long-term deal.”
To the contrary, there are many good reasons to sign him to a SHORT-term deal. The long-term is the problem.
Must sign does not automatically imply the remainder goes to hell. It implies that the signing of him is far and away in our best interest. Will the rest be ok? Probably. Will we win our division without him, probably not. He is pivotal to our achievement of our goal.
They will want Buch (1 year before arbitration at presumably $3MM), Casey Kelly, Westmoreland, and one of Reddick or Exposito. After dumping Brian Giles at $9MM, that freed up some money for the PAD’s (within $40-50MM payroll) to take on salary for some quality pitching.
History is the best predictor of future performance, where there are never any guarantees. Beckett’s shoulder issues are old news. We know he has come back from them and pitched strongly.
I’m sick of the pennywise-pound foolish approach of throwing high quality players under the bus. What happened in regard to Jason Bay was highly appropriate, given his poor defense and shambles for knees. But Beckett is a different story. I won’t support the BoSox on short-changing him. Theo and Larry need to make this happen. They need to sign him to the long-term deal that he clearly can get elsewhere. 5 yrs., $90MM+, and do it now. We’ll just have to agree to disagree, Reverend.
I honestly would be very surprised if the sox insult him with a 3 year 14 mil per as suggested..Although he has had some injury issues..NONE have been shoulder related since coming to the sox..At least thats what has been reported..I still think Beckett is very valuable to this team in many ways..I, for one, would like to see a big deal for Beckett as well as Vmart..With 40+ mil off the books this year, it could def be a reality..With a lineup that has 7 20+hr hitters, and 3 with 30+ potential,I think some of the skeptics will be in for a nice surprise this year..But thats just what I believe..
It meant $60 million minus $6-8 million total- so around $18 million/year
I’m guessing a deal does get done, for a variety of reasons:
1) the market is pretty well defined for a pitcher of Beckett’s caliber, particularly given the deals that Halladay and Lackey received this offseason. While Verlander and King Felix’s deals provide some reference, they’re not quite as applicable because they’re younger and don’t quite have the same pedigree right now (although I think one or both could easily surpass Beckett). I think that when there is a decent amount of certainty about the acquisition cost, the Sox are more likely to pull the trigger on a deal.
2) I don’t think that the upcoming FA classes necessarily have a comparable, elite pitcher coming up aside from Cliff Lee. And I don’t think that the Sox’s negotiations with Jason Bay are analogous here, because Theo has been on record many times as saying that elite pitching is far more valuable and harder to obtain than a bat. It was his rationale about signing Lackey, and not making a strong move for Holliday, and I think that the same reasoning will apply to Beckett as well.
3) Finally, there’s intangibles. Beckett is viewed as the “captain” of the pitching staff, and is also valued for the example he sets for the rest of the pitching staff. There’s a lot of talk about how Lester learned a great deal from Beckett, and with a few other young pitchers potentially in the rotation — Buchholz (to the extent he isn’t traded), Casey Kelly, Junichi Tazawa, and Michael Bowden — there’s value to keeping him as a leader.
4) If no extension is reached prior to the season, Beckett’s price is only likely to increase as the year progresses if he has anything close to 10 wins by mid-season, and probably won’t decrease significantly lower than the 5/$82.5M that Lackey received unless he suffers some serious injury. To me, it’s just a question if the Sox have the money in the budget, which I would imagine they will, given that Lugo, Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew’s contracts will all be up within the next two seasons.
I would imagine that the Sox will try to get Beckett re-signed prior the start of the season, for something in the range of 5/$85M, plus some contractual protections for shoulder injury concerns, and other incentives that could bring the deal up to $90M. V-mart will probably require a wait-and-see approach, particularly based on his catching performance, and whether Adrian Gonzalez does finally make his way onto Landsdowne St.
I would love for Boston to bring him back on a multi-year deal, but they need to address their offense first. Though I have to think about things like Beltre and Ortiz too. If they have bounce back years. I won’t be talking about the offense so much next season either. I think I’ll worry about this at the end of the season.
Beckett is probably worth 4yrs with a mutual option at 90mil-95mil
Never been a huge Beckett fan, he always seemed more hyped than he should be. Not that he’s a bad pitcher, he’s really good, I just don’t view him as a true ace. Maybe a really good two or ace of a lesser team. Maybe it’s the health history or the occasional off year (even the off years are pretty good though). If I were the Sox I’d hold the line with him, offer him what they want and not budge. Especially if DiceK returns to form and Bucholz takes a step forward. If that happens they’ll have four legitimate top of the rotation pitchers without Beckett. They can afford him but there’s no reason for a bad contract, let the Royals or someone else sign him for five years.
Beckett is overhyped because he plays for Boston. His numbers over the last four years are worse than Dan Haren’s and except for the k’s, they’re comparable to Tim Hudson. He’ll get paid like Roy Halladay but IMO, he’s not even in the same wheelhouse. He is still cashing in on those spectacular postseasons, he’s not the best pitcher in the division (Sabathia), he’s not even the best pitcher on his team, Lester is. But, he is much better than guys like Lowe, Burnett, Zambrano and Lackey so 15-18 mil seems to be the going rate. I don’t think he is an elite top five pitcher in baseball, but he is definitely in the second tier of guys like Haren, and Peavy which is not a bad group to be in. He’s just not a Halladay, Sabathia, Lincecum, Grienke, or Santana. Probably going to get a 4/90 deal though from somebody, just not the Sox. Let the Mets have him.
Who is in the same category as Halladay, Lincecum, Grienke and Santana except Halladay, Lincecum, Grienke and Santana? Not exactly a sick burn.
Much of Dan Haren’s success comes during the first half of the season. He is not as consistent over the second half, unlike Beckett, who can turn it up when it’s crunch time.
Sabathia doesn’t even belong in the same group as halladay, lincecum, santana
He would more so be leading the class with lackey, Beckett, Burnett, etc
How about 90million/5 years with either:
1) A Drew-style clause that says if Beckett spends X amount of time on the DL in years 1-3 for [whatever injury the Sox think he is susceptible to get] then the Sox get to void years 3-5
OR
2) A Lackey-style clause that basically says the same thing except it replaces the voiding of years 3-5 with a 6th year club option for major league minimum?
I’m betting one of those clauses would satisfy the Sox enough to bump the rumored 3-year offer up to 5 years but would it be too insulting for Beckett to accept?
I meant to say, then the Sox would get to void years 4-5..not 3-5.