A few Saturday links…
- Via Twitter, Bob Elliott of The Toronto Sun spoke to a scouting director who indicated that a committee was forming to work on instituting a world-wide draft and slotting system. "This time it has a chance," said the scouting director.
- Athletics Nation gives A's fans four reasons why they should approve of the Kevin Kouzmanoff–Scott Hairston swap.
- MLB.com's Doug Miller says that whispers of a $20MM arbitration award for Tim Lincecum have "echoed loudly throughout baseball." Obviously, that would be an unprecedented award and break every arbitration record known to man, but it would also make Lincecum the third highest paid pitcher in baseball next season, behind C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana.
- In a mailbag piece at MLB.com, Thomas Harding says that Huston Street could be a trade candidate if the Rockies drop out of the race and are unable to sign him to an extension. Colorado offered Street a three-year deal earlier this offseason.
- The 30-day exclusive negotiating window between the Hicks Sports Group and the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan group expired yesterday without the Rangers being sold. Maury Brown at The Biz of Baseball has the joint statement released by the two parties, which indicates that they are on the verge of an agreement.
- Tommy Rancel at DRays Bay estimates some arbitration values for Tampa's four remaining arb-eligible players.
Ouch. $20 million in arbitration.
I’ve always liked Houston Street. If Brad Lidge keeps up giving up BSVs, I wonder if the Phillies would make a play for him…prob. not, but still a thought. Although, I don’t think the Rox will fall out. They will be right there with Dodgers and Giants.
Red Sox could use a reliever.
Actually, I read something recently about the bullpen and how it could already be very strong: As John Farrell said, we should have the old Manny Delcarmen back, which would strengthen the bullpen considerably. With Delcarmen, Okajima, Bard, Papelbon, the back end of the bullpen at least is very solid. Then we’ve got a bunch of unknowns who could do long relief, Scott Atchison, Boof Bonser, etc…to me it looks like the only thing we are lacking is long/middle relief, and I doubt Huston Street would be the guy for that.
How do you “give up” a blown save?
If Timmy gets 20mm, what does this mean for Felix and Verlander?
They get a lot less, because they didn’t win Cy Young awards in their first two full seasons, and completely dominate without fault.
Twenty mil per season?
If he makes 20 mil this year and continues to show what he has done… how much will he make next year?
Why not 20m? he is giving them 25m of production.
Because of it being the 1st year arby is my guess.
If he got 20 mil, that would be a big issue for the Giants. He’s got a few more years of arbitration coming up and next year, they have to pay him at least 80% of that or release him. And the next year, at least 70% of that. So then, let’s assume this: He gets 20 million and has a horrible season. They then have to decide if they want to re-up him for at least 16 million or completely release him (losing the rest of his years). It would put the club in an awful bargaining position for any further arbitration hearings, and would really blow the whole concept of “control” of a player out of the water. The only thing they would control would be the ability to pay him similarly to the free agent market. I would have trouble seeing the arb panel going for such a huge figure at such an early stage in his career, especially for a pitcher (who tend to have volatile performance and injury issues).
Basically, I don’t see how the arb panel could easily say that just because he gave 25 million worth last year that he’ll definitely be worth 20 next year even, nor that he would be in any way expected to maintain within 20% of that performance for the remaining arb years. While they don’t necessarily think that way, it’s way too far from any comparable I can think of.
You will spend your whole life writing if you start with the “what if” thing.
A worldwide draft with slotting would be a definite improvement over the system we have now but it’s still flawed cause of the scenario where a bad team may as well hand in the last few games as a few people have mentioned above.
Personally I think the better system is a first-year player free agent market. Each team gets, say, $15 million in revenue sharing dollars to spend on players – that way everyone’s equal, and teams can chose to spend big on a few players or to spend small on lots of players. Also, in the same way that free agent movement can cause draft picks to move around now, a team would lose a certain amount off their $15 million for signing a Type A free agent or gain that same amount for losing a Type A free agent. All players yet to have played in MLB would be eligible.
Let’s face it – the draft is a flawed system, especially for a sport like baseball where it takes players years after being drafted until you know how good they’ll be. It’s time for some innovation, not just revision of the status quo.
First off, I am a huge Giants and Lincecum fan, but $20MM is ludicrous for his first year of arbitration…even if he won 3 Cy Youngs in his first 2 years. There is no way he DOUBLES the record of $10MM. I really think the Lincecum camp would be shooting themselves in the foot if they submitted that high of a number in the arb hearing. I think the Giants will submit somewhere around $12-13MM and will definitely win if Lincecum’s side goes near this suggested figure. Getting 30% higher than the most ever awarded in in arb is nothing to sneeze at and more than fair. I’m all for Timmay getting his money and kudos on however large a pile of money he receives, but this $20MM number is way off in my opinion.
3 Cy’s in 2 years? lol
My guess is 21 mil for lincecum. I think that king Feliz is worth at least 15 mil, he probably won’t get that much but he’s worth it, in the end he gets 12.5-13 mil. Verlander is a hard guess…. He’s worth a little less than Hernandez so he gets 11 mil even.
So lackey and AJ are worth more and Lowe is worth the same as Felix? is what you are saying?
i would like to see Felix pitching in the NL west.
No. Lackey, AJ and Lowe are all getting overpaid. They were all lucky to get such contracts that they don’t produce enough for. While Felix or Verlander or any other young ace deserve, if not, more.
I agree. I’m a Red Sox fan and even I think Lackey is overpaid. Felix and Verlander have both worked very hard and I think they deserve what I said before. @bj82, I’m not saying Lowe is worth the same as felix, Lowe isn’t worth 8 mil in my opinion, the Braves just made a mistake and gave him a lot more money than he deserves.
The idea of arbitration is to pay the player but still save some money, not to pay him exactly what he would be worth in free agency.Lincecum by my guess will end up between 14 to 18 million. Can’t see him go much further then 18 because it’s his first year, he would be shattering the record as it is.Verlander is not getting 11 million at all, he will get way less. like maybe closer to 9 or so..
agreed, i dont see verlander making any more then 6MM..he is a little overhyped.
Verlander over-hyped? probably only for you.
he can throw a 100Mph fastball with a decent amount of control and rakes in strike outs because of it. of course he is sort of dependent on the fastball ( albeit a very very good one). He is only like what? 26? so i think he will still improve but until he can prove he can maintain his 09 form and not sink back to 08 numbers, he is still a LITTLE overhyped.
If Lincecum gets $20 million this year, it will cripple the Giants for years to come, regardless of the fact that he’s worth it.
Yes, they’ll have Renteria’s $9.5 million coming off the books next year, along with Huff’s $3 million. But they’ll still have the terrible Rowand ($12 million) and Zito ($17+ million)contracts hanging around their necks, DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez for 2011 at $6 million each, and another set of arb awards likely for Jonathan Sanchez ($4 million +) and Brian Wilson ($4 million +), all against Neukom’s ridiculous $92 million payroll cap.
I don’t think team finances are taken into consideration during Arbitration.I also believe that the Arbitrator only picks one number and the teams,or the players,and nothing in between.
Lincecum has won two cy young awards and only 25 years old. If he continues pitching the way he is he may be worth 25 to 30 million a year on the free agent market. If he was with a team with a powerful offense he could win 25 games a year. Of course there will be only a few teams who can afford him. The dodgers passed him up to sign clayton Kershaw. Bad move if they had lincecum they might have won a World series the last two years. Hindsight as always is 20/20.
I’m a HUGE Giants and Lincecum fan, but drafting Kershaw over Lincecum is hardly a bad move. Kershaw is only 21 and dominated the NL. I hate the Dodgers, but I’ve got to admit they have a ridiculously good young core with Kershaw, Kemp, Loney, and Ethier. Kershaw could be as good as Lincecum at a younger age.
What you say is correct, but I think if they had lincecum they might have been able to get over the hump and into the world series. There is no pitcher with greater potential then kershaw but he is not ready to lead them yet. The World Series window opens and shuts real fast.Maybe this will be the break thru season with Kershaw. Once the dodger youngsters start becoming free agents the window starts to shut.
True. I expect a huge year from Kershaw this year after his very good one this year. I also expect the Dodgers to contend for the next few years with their talented lineup which will surely only get better with more experience. Hopefully the Giants do better of course. haha
The dodgers have alot of young talent. Since free agency I think overall it has been a bust for them. Kent was ok and Gibson was a leader on the 1988 team, but Dave Goltz, Don Stanhouse, Daryl Strawberry,Kevin Brown the book is still out on Manny but having your Stud free agent suspended 50 games is not good. Your giants have a good shot this year, with the pitching staff they have, plus they might pick up another decent hitter before spring training, they will be in contention.
In general, I am against a world-wide draft. Too many variables come into play.
a) Japaneese players are NOT going to allow themselves to be sucked into a draft. Just won’t happen. Most Japaneese players come into US baseball after spending the manadatory 8 seasons in the Japaneese league or if they and the team allow them to be posted. If I’m incorrect then please inform me. So can anyone see the next great Japaneese player like Matsui or Ichiro or Dice K, who are legitimate stars and already earning millions, allow themselves to be subjected to a draft where a) they have ZERO say in what city they live in and b) can only negotiate their salaries with one team, thus limiting their earning potential? There’s no way that a player of Hidecki Matsui’s stature and ability to should be subject to the same negotiating rights as high school or college player, or even a teenage Dominican ball player.
b) IF the Japaneese are deemed NOT subject to the draft then why should a player from the Korean, Tiwanesse, Cuban or Mexican teams be locked into the draft as well? Would it not simply be the case where we punish players coming from baseball deprived or economically challenged contries simply because we can?
c) For every Jesus Montero there are probably 200 other Latin ballplayers signed each year that we never hear of. Most of these guys are discovered thru individual team baseball academys. Some of them never make it, some of them take 5 or 7 sevens years to develop, especially of some are signed as 16 years old. How does this draft effect them? A team might be willing to take a chance on a 16 year old who can throw an 85 mph fastball and can afford to sit on them until they develop overseas. Would they take that same chance if it means passing on a more developed US player?
Would their be two seperate drafts? One for US players and another for foreign players?
If the problem that creates the need for a wwd are symbolic in the Chapman’s, Dice-K and Matsui’s signings of the world, where the so called “rich” teams sign the top International FA, then wouldn’t it be a farce if it doesn’t apply to the Japaneese league as opposed to the Latin countries? Seems to me that the Latin players who only get a million or so in bonuses are from the problem, but they are 95% of the players who will be effected by a wwd.
Also, seeing as how most Domincan players are scouted and discovered at an early age (14 to 16) and brought up thru their baseball academy to harness their raw talent, learn english, and earn a HS diploma etc, then shouldn’t that team have the inside scoop to retaining that player, rather than that player being exposed to the draft an signed by another team?
I can understand the need for a slotting system, but this idea that the worst teams don’t get the best talent eludes me. If it were a case where the best talent is going to big market teams then the Yanks would historically have a deep and rich farm system over the last 10 years, and that’s far from the case.
Excellent post and you made some great points. I, too, think a world wide draft is just not feasible and unfair to a lot of parties involved. I especially agree with the point you made regarding the baseball academies in latin countries. The teams spending money in those countries should definitely have first crack at signing these youngsters.
Really good post my friend. To many complaint from fans thinking everything should be given to low budget teams. When in reality a lot of those teams pocket everything they get.
Also, I made the same point the other day about Japanese super starts coming to the US to play ball. It wouldn’t make sense for them to go to a draft where they will have to sign with a team they don’t want and make peanuts.
In this business, we call it blind hate of the teams with deep pockets.
Who saw the Reds, of all teams, even having a remote chance at Chapman. Hell, they weren’t even mentioned until the day that they signed him.