Which teams are most likely to become sellers in the next few months leading up to the July 31st trade deadline? To help determine that, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds report. The report gives the following eleven teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs:
- Pirates – 9.46%
- Giants – 8.78%
- Mariners – 6.14%
- Rockies: 4.84%
- Athletics: 4.36%
- White Sox: 4.33%
- Marlins: 3.20%
- Orioles: 2.77%
- Diamondbacks: 2.58%
- Astros: 2.25%
- Nationals: 0.52%
The report likes the 20-28 Indians more than the 21-25 White Sox, because Cleveland has a better run differential. The report gives the Tribe a 14.4% playoff chance. The Padres have pushed themselves up to 11.94%.
As far as pure offensive production this year, your trade candidate leaders from these eleven are Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Nick Johnson. This year's top pitchers from these non-contenders include Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis. I'm not sure whether Buehrle, Cain, and Rodriguez will actually hit the market.
