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Nationals’ Victor Arano To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Nationals reliever Víctor Arano will require shoulder surgery later this month, the team informed reporters (including Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). The club didn’t provide specifics on a timetable, though it seems likely to cost him most or all of the season.

Arano hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since September 1, 2022. The Nats placed him on the injured list with a season-ending shoulder strain at that point. The shoulder has unfortunately continued to bother him in the months since then. He was shut down in Spring Training with an impingement and placed on the 60-day IL. He felt renewed soreness when he tried to ramp up last month.

The right-hander has been in a similar position before. He underwent an elbow procedure while a member of the Phillies in May 2019, costing him the remainder of that year. Arano wouldn’t reappear at the MLB level until last season, when he broke camp with the Nats after signing a minor league deal. He worked 42 innings of middle relief, posting a 4.50 ERA with a solid 23.5% strikeout rate and a stellar 51.6% grounder percentage.

Arano has been a productive reliever when healthy, carrying a 3.32 ERA in 116 2/3 big league frames. Injuries have kept him to two seasons topping the 40-inning mark. He’s making $925K this year after avoiding arbitration last winter. He remains controllable via that process through 2025 but the Nats could non-tender him if this indeed winds up going down as a lost season.

Nationals Designate Andres Machado For Assignment

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June 6: The Nationals have now made these moves official.

June 5, 1:28pm: The Nationals are recalling righty Jordan Weems from Triple-A in a corresponding move to the Machado DFA, per Talk Nats (Twitter link). Weems is already on the 40-man roster, so the Nats’ 40-man will simply drop to a count of 39 players for the time being. It’ll be Weems’ second stint of the season with the Nats. He tossed 2 1/3 scoreless frames earlier in the year and has a 3.75 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate and 13.4% walk rate in 24 Triple-A innings.

9:29am: The Nationals designated right-hander Andres Machado for assignment Sunday, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, although the team has not yet announced the move or a replacement for Machado in the bullpen.

Machado, 30, was an oft-used member of the Washington bullpen in 2021-22, appearing in 91 games and pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 95 innings. Those solid bottom-line results came despite pedestrian strikeout and walk rates (18.8% and 9.9%, respectively) and came with a well below-average .261 average on balls in play, contributing to some far less favorable grades from fielding independent metrics (4.56 FIP, 4.45 SIERA).

They also likely aided in the Nationals’ successful effort to pass Machado through waivers unclaimed back in January, when he was designated for assignment after the team signed outfielder Corey Dickerson to a one-year contract. Machado remained with the organization and was selected back to the big league roster at the end of April.

It’s been a tough go for the right-hander since his return. Machado has appeared in 14 games and been clobbered for 16 runs on 25 hits and six walks in 17 innings. He’s punched out just 15.4% of his opponents against a 6.4% walk rate, and opposing hitters have already connected for six home runs — more than half the number he allowed (11) in total from 2021-22.

Machado is throwing harder than ever before, averaging 96.8 mph on his fastball this season, but the uptick in velocity hasn’t done him any favors. Machado has seen a slider that ranked as his best pitch in 2021 hit increasingly hard across the past two seasons, which has prompted him to instead favor his changeup as his primary secondary offering. The changeup has been a good pitch for him this year, but his four-seamer, sinker and now-seldom-used slider have all been hit hard.

The Nats will have a week to trade Machado or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, so any team to acquire him would need to carry him on the big league roster. Because he was also outrighted back in January, Machado would have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency even if he once again goes unclaimed on waivers.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Stephen Strasburg Shut Down From All Physical Activity

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Nationals veteran Stephen Strasburg’s stretch of brutal injury luck continues as The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports that the right-hander has been shut down from all physical activity since late April due to what was described to Dougherty as “severe” nerve damage. It had previously been reported back in February that Strasburg had suffered a setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome and the club had no timetable for his return to a major league mound. Dougherty notes that doubt is “increasing” that the 34-year-old former ace will ever be able to pitch again.

It’s a devastating continuation to the health woes that have plagued Strasburg all throughout his career. Seen as one of the most talented pitchers in the history of the draft when he was selected by the Nationals as the first overall pick in 2009, Strasburg has showcased immense talent throughout his career, but has been plagued by injuries ever since Tommy John surgery limited him to just 92 innings of work in his 2010 rookie season. Despite that surgery robbing him of his premium velocity that at times topped 100 mph as a rookie, Strasburg managed to put together a phenomenal eight-year stretch from 2012-2019, posting a 3.21 ERA and 3.03 FIP in 1,346 2/3 innings of work, though he eclipsed 180 innings in a season just three times due to continued injury woes.

Strasburg signed a seven-year, $245MM contract with the Nationals during the 2019-20 offseason, just weeks after leading the Nationals to the first World Series championship in franchise history with a dominant postseason where he posted a 1.98 ERA in 36 1/3 innings of work to go along with a top-5 finish in Cy Young award voting for his regular season performance. While his dominating 2019 season, history with the team, and pedigree as a former first overall draft pick, Cy Young finalist, and three-time All Star justified the expenditure to an extent, Strasburg’s already-lengthy injury history offered plenty of reason for concern from the moment the deal was signed.

Those concerns have borne out in what has essentially been a worst-case-scenario for the club over the past four seasons, as Strasburg has made just eight starts in that time while the franchise has entered a deep rebuild. Even during the rare moments when Strasburg has managed to return to a big league mound, the results have left much to be desired, as the aforementioned eight starts yielded a whopping 6.89 ERA, 39% below league average by measure of ERA+.

To make matters worse, Dougherty reports that the club lacks any sort of disability insurance of Strasburg’s megadeal, and it’s appearing increasingly unlikely that the Nationals will ever get any sort of significant return on their investment. While Strasburg was lightly rehabbing at Nationals Park as recently as earlier this season, Dougherty notes that a return to attempting to throw off a mound resulted in Strasburg being limited to exclusively lower-half exercise, but even that proved to be too much by the end of April.

Looking to the future, Dougherty notes that Strasburg won’t get the green light to rehab again until and unless his team of doctors believe an additional attempt to return to baseball would not impact his long-term well-being more than his current health issues already do. Last September, Strasburg acknowledged the difficulties of his injury situation, telling the Washington Post in an interview that he didn’t know “if [he’ll] ever be able to do this consistently on a major league mound again.”

Still in the midst of the rebuild that kicked off mid-way through the 2021 season, the Nationals have relied on a combination of youngsters MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, and Jake Irvin along with veterans like Trevor Williams, Patrick Corbin, and Chad Kuhl in their rotation so far in the 2023 campaign while consensus top 100 prospect Cade Cavalli joins Strasburg on the injured list, rehabbing from an early-career Tommy John surgery of his own.

Nine Veterans With Upcoming Minor League Opt-Out Opportunities

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As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. The second of those dates spurred some roster movement this year. Chris Devenski, Jeff Hoffman and Billy Hamilton were all called up to keep them from testing the market. Chase Anderson and Gary Sánchez found MLB opportunities with other organizations after leaving the Reds and Giants, respectively.

As that third opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA (as well as one player whose minor league contract contained a June 1 opt-out provision).

Alfaro is not an Article XX(B) free agent, as he hit the open market via non-tender from the Padres last fall. However, the minor league deal he signed with Boston reportedly afforded him opt-out chances on both June 1 and July 1.

There’s certainly an argument for the 29-year-old catcher to trigger that provision. Alfaro has had an excellent year with the Red Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester. Through 187 plate appearances, he’s hitting .320/.364/.523 and has connected on six home runs. His 4.8% walk rate is modest but he’s kept his strikeouts to a near-average 23% clip while hitting for power.

Alfaro has had an inconsistent big league career, flashing power potential and big arm strength but struggling with his plate discipline and receiving work. He’s a .256/.305/.396 hitter in over 1600 major league plate appearances.

The Red Sox have used Connor Wong and Reese McGuire as their catching tandem. They’ve combined for a decent .272/.309/.440 line, with Wong supplying some power while McGuire has done a serviceable job reaching base. Neither Wong nor McGuire stands as an obvious roadblock to an addition behind the plate but their cumulative production has been solid. Manager Alex Cora was noncommittal on bringing Alfaro up, telling reporters today the club is “very comfortable with Reese and Wong” (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Cora expressed his hope that Alfaro would stick in the organization even if the Sox don’t call him up this week, though it remains to be seen if he’ll find a better immediate opportunity elsewhere.

Doolittle’s return stint in Washington last year was cut short by a UCL internal brace procedure. He returned on a minor league deal but has been behind schedule as he works back to game shape. The 36-year-old has been on the injured list all season. He began a rehab stint a few days ago and has thrown two innings between Low-A and High-A. It seems likely he’ll remain with Washington and make it back to Triple-A Rochester before much longer.

Duffy has spent the entire season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. It’s unclear when he’ll be ready to return to game action.

Gamel has had a solid showing in Triple-A since signing a non-roster pact in Spring Training. The left-handed hitting corner outfielder has a .257/.387/.436 line over 124 plate appearances for the Rays’ top affiliate in Durham. He’s walking at a stellar 17.7% rate against a manageable 24.2% strikeout percentage. He spent a couple weeks on the injured list earlier this month but returned to the Bulls’ lineup a week ago.

Unfortunately for the veteran, he could find it hard to crack a quality Tampa Bay outfield. Randy Arozarena has left field secured and the lefty-swinging Josh Lowe has had a breakout year to claim most of the right field reps. Luke Raley and Manuel Margot — neither of whom can be optioned to the minor leagues — are also in the outfield mix; Raley, in particular, has played very well this season. Gamel passed on his CBA opt-out dates in March and May.

Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has only played 13 games with Triple-A Nashville after signing with the Brewers, hitting .250/.294/.375 with a pair of homers. He’s been on the minor league injured list since April 28.

Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow.

Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first two opt-out chances and seems likely to do so again.

Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. The former ERA champ has started ten games with their top affiliate in St. Paul this year. He has a 4.17 ERA over 41 frames. His 49.2% ground-ball rate is solid but he’s walked nearly 16% of batters faced while punching hitters out at just an 18.8% clip. Even with injuries to Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, the Twins have had one of the game’s best rotations through two months.

Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.

Quick Hits: Stroman, Maeda, Orioles, Barreto

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Cubs starter Marcus Stroman remains hopeful of finding a long term contract extension with the Cubs, with the veteran telling Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that a trade away from Wrigley would “bother” him.

“At this point in my career, I’m so open to anything. But it would bother me a bit, just because I feel like I do love it here, as far as the city, the organization from the top down, the fans,” Stroman said.

Stroman is the middle of another quality campaign, posting a 2.95 ERA through 11 starts. That mark comes with a 9.1% walk rate and a 21.3% strikeout rate.

It’s already been reported that Stroman and the Cubs had preliminary extension talks in the spring, and while Rosenthal adds that the Cubs are open to a new deal, it does not appear that anything is imminent. The Cubs, in the midst of an 8-19 run, would seem to be trending towards selling at the deadline and Stroman may well be a valuable trade chip for them.

Stroman holds a $21MM player option for 2024 but would appear to be on track to opt out of that and test the open market. It’s also worth noting that the Cubs can’t tender a qualifying offer to Stroman, as he already took one (and accepted it) from the Mets.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around the sport:

  • The Orioles are one team that certainly are not trending towards being sellers, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias says they’re “preparing to be buyers”, per Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. While there’s quite a bit of time before trade season really heats up, it should come as no surprise that the 33-19 Orioles will be adding. Despite having a hugely promising young roster, the O’s have resisted pushing the chips in, opting to sell at last year’s deadline before making only modest additions this past winter. The team has made a notable step forward this year though, and perhaps that’ll be enough to encourage Elias to be a bit more aggressive on the trade market.
  • Some help is on the way for the Twins, with Kenta Maeda and Caleb Thielbar to start rehab assignments this week, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Maeda made just four ugly starts for the Twins this season before hitting the shelf with a triceps strain, giving up 16 earned runs in as many innings. The Twins rotation has done well in Maeda and Tyler Mahle’s (Tommy John surgery) absence, and it’s possible the team could use him in relief at least to begin with. Thielbar has been out since early May with an oblique strain, and his return will give the team another left handed option in the bullpen. Thielbar was off to a nice start to the season, working to a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings.
  • The Nationals have released Franklin Barreto, per the Talk Nats podcast. The former A’s and Angels infielder joined Washington on a minor league deal but hit just .202/.282/.455 in 111 plate appearances at Triple-A. A former top-100 prospect, Barreto never hit in the big leagues, compiling a .175/.207/.342 line over parts of four seasons in the big leagues.

Sean Doolittle Pitches For Nats' A-Ball Affiliate

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  • Sean Doolittle pitched a scoreless inning for the Nationals’ high-A affiliate in Wilmington tonight, marking the veteran reliever’s first game action of the 2023 season.  Doolittle has been working his way back from the internal brace procedure to his left elbow that prematurely ended his 2022 season last July.  There isn’t yet any timeline for Doolittle’s possible MLB return, as Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman) that “Right now, we’ll just continue to let him build.  He’s going to have to pitch seven or eight times before we figure out what the next step is for him.”

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

Nationals Sign Luis Torrens To Minor League Contract

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The Nationals have signed catcher Luis Torrens to a minor league deal, the club announced. Washington also confirmed its previously reported signing of designated hitter Franmil Reyes to a non-roster pact.

Torrens joins his third organization of 2023. He opened the year with the Cubs on a minor league deal and cracked the Opening Day roster. Working as a third catcher, he appeared in 13 games and hit 22 times before being designated for assignment. The Cubs traded Torrens to the Orioles for cash but he spent just a few days in Baltimore prior to being DFA for a second time. After going unclaimed on waivers, he chose minor league free agency and heads to Washington.

It’s a sensible depth add for the Nats. Washington saw veteran backstop Kevin Plawecki opt out of a minor league deal earlier in the week. Torrens will take his spot as a veteran catcher at Triple-A Rochester. He has appeared in parts of six MLB seasons. Torrens’ best year came with the Mariners in 2021, when he hit .243/.299/.431 with 15 home runs in a career-high 378 plate appearances. He stumbled to a .225/.283/.298 showing in 57 games the next year, though, leading Seattle to run him through waivers twice.

Public defensive metrics have pegged Torrens as a below-average pitch framer and blocker. His career 21.7% caught stealing rate is a few percentage points below par, though he cut down an excellent 32.1% of basestealers last season.

The Nationals have three catchers on the 40-man roster. Israel Pineda has spent the entire year on the minor league injured list with a broken finger, leaving Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams as their only healthy backstops. Ruiz, whom the Nats signed to a $50MM extension over the winter, is entrenched as the starter. The 26-year-old Adams has played just seven times as the backup, hitting .192/.250/.346 in 29 plate appearances. Adams still has a minor league option year remaining, so Washington could eventually turn to another #2 backstop if they’d like to get him more consistent reps in Triple-A.

Nationals, Franmil Reyes Agree To Minor League Deal

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11:15am: Reyes’ contract with the Nats has opt-out dates on June 16 and July 1, Andrew Golden of the Washington Post tweets.

9:18am: The Nationals have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent outfielder/designated hitter Franmil Reyes, per a report from Talk Nats (Twitter link). Reyes opened the season with the Royals but was optioned to Triple-A Omaha after a rough start and designated for assignment shortly thereafter. He cleared outright waivers and elected free agency last week.

The 27-year-old Reyes has a pair of 30-homer campaigns under his belt at the big league level but has seen his production take a sharp nosedive in recent seasons. After hitting .260/.325/.503 with 92 home runs in 1540 plate appearances between San Diego and Cleveland from 2018-21, the 6’5″ slugger flopped with a .221/.273/.365 batting line and 33.2% strikeout rate in 473 plate appearances between the Guardians and Cubs in 2022.

Chicago outrighted Reyes off the 40-man roster, and he elected free agency heading into the offseason. He lingered on the market into the new year but signed on with the Royals on a minor league pact. Reyes made Kansas City’s roster this spring but faded after a pair of early homers. In 65 trips to the plate, he hit just .186/.231/.288 and fanned at an ugly 36.9% clip.

Joey Meneses has been the Nationals’ primary designated hitter in 2023 and is slashing .295/.326/.387 with a pair of homers and ten doubles on the season. Reyes isn’t going to supplant Meneses anytime soon, and Dominic Smith is getting on base at a strong enough clip as the primary first baseman (.277/.361/.311) that there’s little urgency to push him out of the lineup, even if the Nats are surely hoping he’ll add some power to that output. It seems unlikely that the Nats would give Reyes substantial time in the outfield; he has just 208 innings on the grass dating back to 2020 and carries career marks of -17 Defensive Runs Saved and -10 Outs Above Average in 1420 career innings there.

Where Reyes could fit onto the big league roster is a secondary consideration at the moment anyhow. He hasn’t been a productive big league hitter since 2021, and his brief run with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate saw him go 3-for-15 with a homer and seven strikeouts. He’ll head to Triple-A Rochester for the time being and hope to pare back his strikeout rate and tap back into the power he displayed during that strong stretch from 2018-21.

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