- The Nationals have been without former top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli since he underwent Tommy John surgery back in March of 2023, but it appears that the 25-year-old hurler is now nearing a huge step in his rehab process. According to Mark Zuckerman of MASN, Cavalli is “ready” to begin a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League. It will be his first appearance in an official game since his big league debut on August 26, 2022. MLB.com’s Injury Tracker indicates that Cavalli will be built up slowly over the course of his rehab, with two or three innings being the goal for his first appearance. The Nationals have been surprisingly competitive so far this season with a 20-23 record that places them in third place in the NL East, and a healthy and effective return to action from Cavalli later this season could be a huge boost for a rotation that already features exciting youngsters such as MacKenzie Gore and Mitchell Parker.
Nationals Rumors
Ted Leonsis Expresses Continued Interest In Purchasing Nationals
The long-term future of the Nationals has been in question for the past few years. The Lerner family announced in April 2022 they would look into selling the franchise. Within a few months, it became clear that Ted Leonsis — CEO of Monumental Sports and owner of the NHL’s Capitals and NBA’s Wizards — was the frontrunner.
Talks between the Lerners and Leonsis fizzled out, largely because of uncertainty regarding the Nats’ television rights deal. The Lerners were reportedly seeking around $2.5 billion back in 2022. The family announced this February they were no longer interested in selling the team. That seemingly put the matter to rest, but Leonsis told Scott Allen, Barry Svrluga and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post on Tuesday that he’s planning to put another proposal on the table at some point.
“I’ve told employees; I’ve told the Lerner family: ‘We are very interested. And we will figure out the right time and place to come with a thoughtful, dignified, real offer,” Leonsis said. “And they can say yes, they can say no. They can say, ‘We want to keep the team.’”
Leonsis can’t force the Lerners to sell, of course. However, the Post reports that the Lerner family may be willing to again entertain offers for the franchise after the 2024 season. While previous discussions haven’t been fruitful, it’s possible the ownership change on the other side of the Beltway Series will make a sale of the Nats more viable.
The primary complication to the Nationals changing hands has long been the team’s contentious TV contract with the Orioles. The franchises jointly own the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, with the O’s holding a larger share. If Leonsis had agreed to a deal with the Lerners, he’d likely have tried to work out an arrangement with the Orioles to buy out of the MASN deal. Longstanding acrimony between the franchises made that difficult to envision so long as the Angelos family was in control of the Orioles. New Baltimore owner David Rubenstein has publicly expressed a desire to reach an agreement with the Nats to resolve the MASN dispute.
Whether that happens remains to be seen. There’s no indication anything is imminent on that front, and it appears Leonsis is willing to be patient in putting together a new offer for the Nats. “The Nationals and the Lerner family have said the team is not for sale, right? It’s not a formal process. And that is true,” he told the Post. “So there’s obviously no rush by them. They’re enjoying the season, right?” It’s nevertheless a situation worth keeping an eye on over the coming months.
Richard Bleier Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Nationals
Left-hander Richard Bleier has opted out of his minor league deal with the Nationals, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. He’ll head to the open market and will be free to pursue opportunities with all 30 clubs.
Bleier, 37, signed a minor league deal with the Nationals in February. He joined them in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and posted 1.69 earned run average over 10 2/3 innings. He didn’t get a roster spot out of camp and reported to Triple-A Rochester.
He threw 16 2/3 innings for that club with a 4.32 ERA. He only struck out 14.7% of batters faced but Bleier has always been a low-strikeout guy who succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding free passes. He walked just 2.9% of batters faced for the Red Wings and got grounders on 51.8% of balls in play.
Those numbers are all roughly in line with his career work in the majors as a journeyman grounder specialist. He has 330 1/3 innings of big league experience with the Yankees, Orioles, Marlins and Red Sox. Over that time, he has a 3.27 ERA, 13.6% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 60.9% ground ball rate.
The Nationals have selected the contracts of other veterans to their bullpen this year, such as Derek Law, Jacob Barnes and Matt Barnes. It seems that Bleier didn’t expect to be next in line, so he will look for opportunities elsewhere. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand and many clubs around the league are dealing with mounting injuries, which could open opportunities for Bleier elsewhere.
East Notes: Riley, Rodriguez, Poche, Winker
Austin Riley left tonight’s game in the fourth inning with what the Braves described as left side tightness. The removal was specifically cited to be “a precaution,” so there isn’t yet any indication that Riley may have suffered an oblique-related injury. Speaking with reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) afterwards, Riley said he felt the side soreness during batting practice but didn’t inform the team because he didn’t think the issue was too much of a concern.
Though Atlanta has an impressive 24-13 record, Riley is one of a few Braves stars who have yet to really get rolling at the plate. A top-seven finisher in NL MVP voting in each of the last three seasons, Riley has hit only .245/.319/.388 over his first 163 plate appearances, with just three home runs. The power dropoff is unusual since Riley’s advanced metrics are largely similar to previous seasons, though since Riley has also shown some streakiness in past years, a breakout might be just around the corner if he is healthy. Losing Riley for any stretch of time would hurt Atlanta’s lineup, though the newly-acquired Short might have a sudden path to regular lineup if Riley does need to hit the injured list.
More from the NL and AL East divisions….
- Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez came out of a 30-pitch bullpen session today feeling “great,” he told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters. Rodriguez’s 15-day IL stint due to shoulder inflammation retroactively started on April 30, so Wednesday would be his first day eligible for activation, though it seems as though he’ll be out for at least a little beyond that date. Rodriguez figures he’ll throw another bullpen session and then it isn’t yet certain if he’ll need a rehab start or not before returning to Baltimore’s rotation. With a 3.71 ERA in his first 34 innings, Rodriguez is one of several Orioles pitchers performing well this season, giving the O’s a nice problem to sort out once everyone is healthy.
- Mid-back tightness sent Colin Poche to the Rays’ 15-day IL on April 24, and he had to halt his throwing program to receive “a second cortisone-type shot, a more impactful kind for which he had to undergo anesthesia,” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The plan is for Poche to start throwing again on Wednesday, and this setback might push his IL activation into June. Poche was a quality workhorse out of the Rays’ bullpen in 2022-23, but he has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 9 1/3 innings so far this season.
- Jesse Winker had to make an early exit today, as Winker’s back spasms forced the Nationals to pinch-hit for the outfielder in the sixth inning of today’s 3-2 loss to the Red Sox. Winker told the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden (X link) and other reporters that his back was sore even prior to the game, but the issue got worse after he dove for a Rob Refsnyder line drive single in the bottom of the fifth. Though he has greatly cooled off since a very strong start to the season, Winker’s .235/.350/.386 slash line and four homers over 157 PA still translates to a 114 wRC+, representing a nice bounce-back from a very disappointing 2023 campaign. It seems like Winker will miss a game or two at least, and a 10-day IL stint might be necessary if the spasms persist.
Latest On Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli
- Nationals fans received positive updates regarding a pair of injured young righties recently. As relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli threw off a mound in their rehab processes yesterday. Gray hit the shelf with a flexor strain just two starts into his 2024 campaign and reportedly looked good in his 35-pitch bullpen session, throwing 32 of the pitches for strikes. Cavalli, meanwhile, threw 45 pitches in 2 2/3 simulated innings as he works his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Gray appears to be closer to a return to action than Cavalli, who Martinez indicated is on track for a return sometime next month. Washington has relied on left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has posted a strong 2.67 ERA in five starts this season, to round out the club’s rotation in Gray’s absence.
Nationals, CJ Abrams Had “Substantive Discussions” About Extension
CJ Abrams and the Nationals “held substantive discussions” about a possible contract extension this past spring, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports. It isn’t known how close the two sides might’ve gotten towards a long-term deal, or whether or not an extension could still be struck at some point during the season. Most players prefer not to negotiate to any great extent after Opening Day, but it’s possible Abrams might be more open to locking up the first big multi-year windfall of his pro career.
If Abrams and his reps at Roc Nation Sports wanted to more fully dive into extension talks after Abrams had a more established MLB track record, that strategy might well have paid off handsomely given the shortstop’s red-hot start to the season. Abrams is hitting .264/.329/.521 with seven home runs over his first 156 plate appearances, along with eight stolen bases in 10 attempts and an NL-best four triples. While his hard-contact and walk rates are a little subpar, Abrams’ strong .363 wOBA is actually lower than his .381 xwOBA.
The 23-year-old Abrams has been pegged for stardom since the Padres drafted him sixth overall in 2019, which is why the Nats insisted on the shortstop’s inclusion in the trade package received in the Juan Soto deal at the 2022 trade deadline. While Abrams hit a modest .246/.293/.383 over his first 916 MLB plate appearances in 2022-23, he also went yard 18 times last season, and stole 47 bases in 51 attempts. Back in February, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds profiled Abrams as a possible extension candidate, and floated the idea of an eight-year deal worth $60MM-$65MM, with one or two club option years attached.
If Abrams keeps up anything close to this level of production over the full 2024 season, his camp will surely have a higher figure in mind than $65MM. As Svrluga notes, the Nationals’ track record with extending cornerstone players is pretty spotty, as while some prominent names (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Keibert Ruiz) were locked up, other notables like Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ian Desmond, and Anthony Rendon were all either traded or let go via free agency. Ruiz’s extension was signed just last year and is therefore the most illustrative of how ownership and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo might operate as the Nationals start to emerge from this rebuild period, and the organization continues to be willing to invest in certain players.
There technically isn’t any rush for either Abrams or the Nationals to reach a deal since Abrams is under arbitration control through the 2028 season. Since Abrams is looking very likely to qualify for Super Two status and an extra year of arb eligibility, signing the shortstop to an extension would give the Nationals some extra measure of cost certainty over the young star rather than watch his price tag continue to rise in his arbitration years. From Abrams’ perspective, he is setting himself up for a very nice first-time figure for his initial trip through the arb process, which should boost his earnings in each subsequent year if he continues to produce.
The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions
Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.
Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.
The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin’s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.
The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.
After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.
So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.
There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.
Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.
But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.
The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.
Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.
Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.
Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.
Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo’s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.
Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.
Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo’s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.
Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.
If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.
There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.
Matt Barnes Elects Free Agency
10:44am: The Nationals announced that Barnes has rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
May 9, 10:17am: Barnes cleared outright waivers and has been assigned outright to the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He has enough service time to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, if he chooses.
May 7: The Nationals announced Tuesday they’ve designated right-hander Matt Barnes for assignment. His spot on the active roster will go to lefty Robert Garcia, who’s been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. The Nats’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Barnes, 33, inked a minor league deal with Washington in the early portion of Spring Training. He made the Opening Day roster after throwing five scoreless innings in camp. The veteran reliever hasn’t carried that success into the regular season. Barnes has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over 13 1/3 frames while working in low-leverage situations. His 8% swinging strike rate is well below both the league average and his career 12.3% mark.
It’s the second straight season in which Barnes has struggled to miss bats. He managed whiffs on a career-low 7.8% of his offerings en route to a 5.48 ERA in 21 1/3 innings with the Marlins last year. That season was cut short before the All-Star Break by a left hip injury that required surgery. Barnes’ velocity has yet to return to pre-surgery levels. His 91.4 MPH average fastball speed and 81.5 MPH curveball velocity are each down two ticks from where they sat in 2023.
Barnes was averaging around 95-96 MPH on his heater and in the mid-80s with his breaking ball during his best seasons with the Red Sox. That included four seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball over a five-year stretch from 2017-21. Barnes routinely punched out more than 30% of opposing hitters during that run and held the closer role in Boston in 2021. He earned an All-Star nod that season and secured a two-year, $18.75MM extension that July.
A shoulder injury in 2022 and the aforementioned hip issue have prevented Barnes from recapturing that form in the two-plus years since then. The Nats will technically have five days to trade him, but it’s likelier he’ll be released. Barnes locked in a $2MM base salary when he made the Washington roster. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, the Nationals will be responsible for the bulk of that contract. Another team that subsequently signs him would owe the prorated portion of the $740K minimum for any time he spends on their MLB roster.
Latest On Victor Robles
Nationals center fielder Victor Robles has played just four games this season due to a hamstring strain he suffered in early April, and manager Dave Martinez told reporters (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) on Friday that he’s “running really well” in his rehab assignment, indicating he remains on track for a return at some point this month.
Perhaps more notably, Martinez indicated that Robles isn’t likely to take back the starting job in center field upon his return. 24-year-old youngster Jacob Young has made a strong impression as a regular in Robles’s absence, with a .311/.354/.378 slash line in 81 trips to the plate. That production is good for a 113 wRC+, and Young has also gone 12-for-13 on the basepaths. That type of offensive production would be hard for the club to part with, but its nonetheless surprising that the Nationals don’t plan to return Robles, a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport who has patrolled the position for eight seasons, to his usual spot in the lineup.
Nationals Outright Jake Alu
The Nationals announced this afternoon that infielder/outfielder Jake Alu has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Rochester.
Alu, 27, was selected by the Nats in the 24th round of the 2019 draft and made his big league debut with the club last season. He struggled in 51 games last year, hitting just .226/.282/.289 with five extra-base hits in 175 trips to the plate. While Alu contributed minimal value with the bat last year, he was nonetheless an interesting bench piece for the club thanks to his versatility. Alu played left field as well as both second and third base for the Nationals last year at the major league level and has even received brief cameos at shortstop and first base in the minor leagues.
That versatility wasn’t enough to earn Alu a spot on the Nationals bench entering the season, however, and the utilityman was sent to Triple-A Rochester to open the 2024 campaign. He thrived at the level in 74 games last year, slashing a solid .298/.360/.428 in 330 trips to the plate, but struggled in a return to the level this year as he posted a tepid .190/.262/.276 slash line in 65 trips to the plate. Those struggles were enough for Washington to decide to risk losing Alu on waivers last week, when the club designated him for assignment to open up a roster spot for right-hander Jacob Barnes.
Fortunately for the Nationals, Alu cleared waivers and will instead report to Rochester as a non-roster depth option for the club going forward. As an optionable hitter with plenty of defensive versatility, Alu could be a useful piece to have on hand in the event of an injury that compromises the depth of the big league club. At Triple-A, Alu figures to compete with the likes of Juan Yepez, Carter Kieboom, and Stone Garrett as potential depth options for the Nationals going forward.
