- Nationals fans received positive updates regarding a pair of injured young righties recently. As relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli threw off a mound in their rehab processes yesterday. Gray hit the shelf with a flexor strain just two starts into his 2024 campaign and reportedly looked good in his 35-pitch bullpen session, throwing 32 of the pitches for strikes. Cavalli, meanwhile, threw 45 pitches in 2 2/3 simulated innings as he works his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Gray appears to be closer to a return to action than Cavalli, who Martinez indicated is on track for a return sometime next month. Washington has relied on left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has posted a strong 2.67 ERA in five starts this season, to round out the club’s rotation in Gray’s absence.
Nationals Rumors
Nationals, CJ Abrams Had “Substantive Discussions” About Extension
CJ Abrams and the Nationals “held substantive discussions” about a possible contract extension this past spring, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports. It isn’t known how close the two sides might’ve gotten towards a long-term deal, or whether or not an extension could still be struck at some point during the season. Most players prefer not to negotiate to any great extent after Opening Day, but it’s possible Abrams might be more open to locking up the first big multi-year windfall of his pro career.
If Abrams and his reps at Roc Nation Sports wanted to more fully dive into extension talks after Abrams had a more established MLB track record, that strategy might well have paid off handsomely given the shortstop’s red-hot start to the season. Abrams is hitting .264/.329/.521 with seven home runs over his first 156 plate appearances, along with eight stolen bases in 10 attempts and an NL-best four triples. While his hard-contact and walk rates are a little subpar, Abrams’ strong .363 wOBA is actually lower than his .381 xwOBA.
The 23-year-old Abrams has been pegged for stardom since the Padres drafted him sixth overall in 2019, which is why the Nats insisted on the shortstop’s inclusion in the trade package received in the Juan Soto deal at the 2022 trade deadline. While Abrams hit a modest .246/.293/.383 over his first 916 MLB plate appearances in 2022-23, he also went yard 18 times last season, and stole 47 bases in 51 attempts. Back in February, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds profiled Abrams as a possible extension candidate, and floated the idea of an eight-year deal worth $60MM-$65MM, with one or two club option years attached.
If Abrams keeps up anything close to this level of production over the full 2024 season, his camp will surely have a higher figure in mind than $65MM. As Svrluga notes, the Nationals’ track record with extending cornerstone players is pretty spotty, as while some prominent names (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Keibert Ruiz) were locked up, other notables like Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ian Desmond, and Anthony Rendon were all either traded or let go via free agency. Ruiz’s extension was signed just last year and is therefore the most illustrative of how ownership and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo might operate as the Nationals start to emerge from this rebuild period, and the organization continues to be willing to invest in certain players.
There technically isn’t any rush for either Abrams or the Nationals to reach a deal since Abrams is under arbitration control through the 2028 season. Since Abrams is looking very likely to qualify for Super Two status and an extra year of arb eligibility, signing the shortstop to an extension would give the Nationals some extra measure of cost certainty over the young star rather than watch his price tag continue to rise in his arbitration years. From Abrams’ perspective, he is setting himself up for a very nice first-time figure for his initial trip through the arb process, which should boost his earnings in each subsequent year if he continues to produce.
The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions
Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.
Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.
The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin’s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.
The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.
After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.
So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.
There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.
Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.
But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.
The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.
Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.
Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.
Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.
Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo’s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.
Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.
Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo’s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.
Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.
If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.
There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.
Matt Barnes Elects Free Agency
10:44am: The Nationals announced that Barnes has rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
May 9, 10:17am: Barnes cleared outright waivers and has been assigned outright to the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He has enough service time to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, if he chooses.
May 7: The Nationals announced Tuesday they’ve designated right-hander Matt Barnes for assignment. His spot on the active roster will go to lefty Robert Garcia, who’s been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. The Nats’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Barnes, 33, inked a minor league deal with Washington in the early portion of Spring Training. He made the Opening Day roster after throwing five scoreless innings in camp. The veteran reliever hasn’t carried that success into the regular season. Barnes has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over 13 1/3 frames while working in low-leverage situations. His 8% swinging strike rate is well below both the league average and his career 12.3% mark.
It’s the second straight season in which Barnes has struggled to miss bats. He managed whiffs on a career-low 7.8% of his offerings en route to a 5.48 ERA in 21 1/3 innings with the Marlins last year. That season was cut short before the All-Star Break by a left hip injury that required surgery. Barnes’ velocity has yet to return to pre-surgery levels. His 91.4 MPH average fastball speed and 81.5 MPH curveball velocity are each down two ticks from where they sat in 2023.
Barnes was averaging around 95-96 MPH on his heater and in the mid-80s with his breaking ball during his best seasons with the Red Sox. That included four seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball over a five-year stretch from 2017-21. Barnes routinely punched out more than 30% of opposing hitters during that run and held the closer role in Boston in 2021. He earned an All-Star nod that season and secured a two-year, $18.75MM extension that July.
A shoulder injury in 2022 and the aforementioned hip issue have prevented Barnes from recapturing that form in the two-plus years since then. The Nats will technically have five days to trade him, but it’s likelier he’ll be released. Barnes locked in a $2MM base salary when he made the Washington roster. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, the Nationals will be responsible for the bulk of that contract. Another team that subsequently signs him would owe the prorated portion of the $740K minimum for any time he spends on their MLB roster.
Latest On Victor Robles
Nationals center fielder Victor Robles has played just four games this season due to a hamstring strain he suffered in early April, and manager Dave Martinez told reporters (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) on Friday that he’s “running really well” in his rehab assignment, indicating he remains on track for a return at some point this month.
Perhaps more notably, Martinez indicated that Robles isn’t likely to take back the starting job in center field upon his return. 24-year-old youngster Jacob Young has made a strong impression as a regular in Robles’s absence, with a .311/.354/.378 slash line in 81 trips to the plate. That production is good for a 113 wRC+, and Young has also gone 12-for-13 on the basepaths. That type of offensive production would be hard for the club to part with, but its nonetheless surprising that the Nationals don’t plan to return Robles, a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport who has patrolled the position for eight seasons, to his usual spot in the lineup.
Nationals Outright Jake Alu
The Nationals announced this afternoon that infielder/outfielder Jake Alu has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Rochester.
Alu, 27, was selected by the Nats in the 24th round of the 2019 draft and made his big league debut with the club last season. He struggled in 51 games last year, hitting just .226/.282/.289 with five extra-base hits in 175 trips to the plate. While Alu contributed minimal value with the bat last year, he was nonetheless an interesting bench piece for the club thanks to his versatility. Alu played left field as well as both second and third base for the Nationals last year at the major league level and has even received brief cameos at shortstop and first base in the minor leagues.
That versatility wasn’t enough to earn Alu a spot on the Nationals bench entering the season, however, and the utilityman was sent to Triple-A Rochester to open the 2024 campaign. He thrived at the level in 74 games last year, slashing a solid .298/.360/.428 in 330 trips to the plate, but struggled in a return to the level this year as he posted a tepid .190/.262/.276 slash line in 65 trips to the plate. Those struggles were enough for Washington to decide to risk losing Alu on waivers last week, when the club designated him for assignment to open up a roster spot for right-hander Jacob Barnes.
Fortunately for the Nationals, Alu cleared waivers and will instead report to Rochester as a non-roster depth option for the club going forward. As an optionable hitter with plenty of defensive versatility, Alu could be a useful piece to have on hand in the event of an injury that compromises the depth of the big league club. At Triple-A, Alu figures to compete with the likes of Juan Yepez, Carter Kieboom, and Stone Garrett as potential depth options for the Nationals going forward.
Nationals Place Joey Gallo On 10-Day Injured List
The Nationals have placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day injured list, as the first baseman/outfielder is dealing with an AC sprain in his left shoulder. Outfielder Alex Call was promoted from Triple-A to take Gallo’s spot on the active roster. (The Talk Nats blog reported earlier today that Call was headed to the majors, but the corresponding move wasn’t known at the time.)
Gallo signed a one-year, $5MM free agent deal over the offseason, and has worked mostly as Washington’s everyday first baseman with a few appearances as a corner outfielder and DH. Gallo had seen more work in the outfield since Lane Thomas went to the 10-day IL earlier this week, but with Gallo, Thomas, and Victor Robles all now out of action, Call figures to get a good chunk of playing time in the interim.
No matter Gallo’s position, the offensive production hasn’t been there. The veteran has struggled to a .122/.286/.311 slash line over 91 plate appearances, with three homers and a Major League-leading 43 strikeouts. This 47.3% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s career standards, and while his 16.5% walk rate is very strong, Gallo simply isn’t making enough contact. The rebuilding Nationals were hoping Gallo would hit well enough to be a trade chip at the deadline, yet for now, Gallo will first have to focus just on getting healthy before he can look to turn things around at the plate.
Cade Cavalli Aiming To Begin Rehab Assignment In Mid-May
- Cade Cavalli is set for a live batting practice session on Monday, his first time facing real hitters since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2023. Cavalli updated reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco) about his rehab progress, as the plan is for the right-hander to start a minor league rehab assignment in the middle of May. Nationals manager Davey Martinez then views Cavalli’s return to the majors for “sometime at the end of June, maybe July.” The 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft pitched in exactly one MLB game before his career was put on pause by the TJ procedure, and assuming all goes well health-wise, Cavalli should now be in line for his extended stint in a big league rotation.
Nationals Place Lane Thomas On Injured List With Grade 2 MCL Sprain
3:12pm: It’s a Grade 2 sprain, manager Davey Martinez announced to the Nationals beat (X link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). While not a worst-case scenario, that points to an absence of some note for the Nats’ everyday right fielder.
12:56pm: The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve placed outfielder Lane Thomas on the 10-day injured list due to an MCL sprain in his left knee. Infielder Trey Lipscomb has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester in his place. Andrew Golden of the Washington Post first reported that Lipscomb would be called up if Thomas required a trip to the injured list after departing last night’s game with the injury.
Thomas sustained the injury last night on a steal of second base (video link). After a somewhat awkward feet-first slide into the bag, he rolled to his side in obvious discomfort. He tried to stand and was initially unable to put weight on the leg, though he eventually was able to stand and walk off the field with the team’s training staff. The Nats haven’t yet provided a timetable for Thomas’ recovery, nor have they specified the extent of the sprain.
The 28-year-old Thomas has had a rough start to his season at the plate, hitting just .184/.250/.253 in 96 trips to the plate — a far cry from last year’s career-high 28 home runs and breakout .268/.315/.468 showing. He’s actually cut his strikeout rate from 25.8% to 20.8% and upped his walk rate from 5.3% to 8.3% thus far. Much of Thomas’ struggle seems related to a .212 average on balls in play that sits 91 points shy of the career .303 mark he carried into the season, though it can’t all be chalked up to bad luck. He’s already hit seven infield flies this season, nearly halfway to last year’s total of 16. Those virtually automatic outs are naturally going to suppress his BABIP.
When Thomas has managed to reach base, he’s been exceptional. His 11 stolen bases (in 12 attempts) rank second in the majors, trailing only Milwaukee’s Brice Turang and Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (both at 12). It’s an unexpected development from a player who has always had good speed but had never stolen more than 20 bags in a season, which he did just last season.
The injury to Thomas opens the door for more outfield reps for veterans Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario. They’ll likely flank center fielder Jacob Young on a regular basis while Thomas is on the mend for a yet-to-be-determined period of time. Of course, all eyes will be on top prospect James Wood, who has crushed Triple-A pitching at a .303/.418/.474 clip through his first 91 plate appearances this season.
It’s feasible that the 21-year-old Wood — widely considered to be among the sport’s 10 to 20 best overall prospects — could get a look in the big leagues sooner than later. That’ll be all the more tempting for the Nats if Thomas is slated to miss significant time. If he’s only expected to be on the shelf for a couple weeks, however, the Nats could give Wood everyday at-bats in Triple-A for a bit longer. Winker has been excellent in left field, although if the Nats wanted to free up playing time for Wood on the big league roster, it wouldn’t be that difficult. Rosario, Joey Gallo and designated hitter Joey Meneses have all struggled greatly at the plate thus far. Moving Winker to DH to clear a corner outfield spot could happen at some point even if Thomas is back in the fold in relatively short order.
Nationals Select Jacob Barnes, Designate Jake Alu
The Nationals announced today that they have select the contract of right-hander Jacob Barnes. He will take the active roster spot of left-hander Robert Garcia, who has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to influenza, retroactive to April 21. To open a 40-man spot for Barnes, infielder/outfielder Jake Alu has been designated for assignment. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com noted that Barnes was in the clubhouse prior to the official announcement.
It would appear that an influenza virus is spreading around the Nats’ clubhouse. Catcher Keibert Ruiz came down with the illness and also landed on the IL, last appearing in a game back on April 8. Over the weekend, he told Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post that he was feeling better but had lost 18 to 20 pounds because of his illness. Garcia last appeared on Saturday and it seems he is unwell, so the club will let him rest up for the next little while.
To take his spot in the bullpen, they have tapped a veteran journeyman in Barnes. They 34-year-old has appeared in the past eight major league seasons and will make in nine in a row once the Nats send him out to the mound. He has suited up for the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees and Cardinals in that time, and will now add the Nationals to that list.
He has a 4.76 earned run average over his 265 appearances, but with much better numbers earlier in his career. He tossed 147 1/3 innings with the Brewers from 2016 to 2018 with a 3.54 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. Since then, he has a 6.32 ERA while punching out just 20.8% of hitters, corresponding with the nomadic phase of his career.
He finished last season with the Cardinals but they outrighted him off the roster in October, allowing him to elect free agency. He signed a minor league deal with the Nats and has been in good form of late, having tossed eight scoreless innings for their Triple-A club, striking out ten opponents while giving out just two walks. He’s out of options so the club won’t be able to send him back down to the minors at a future date. Even if they were to pass him through waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.
To add that veteran arm to their pen, the Nats are risking losing Alu. A 24th-round pick in 2019, Alu overcame that modest draft selection to get onto Washington’s 40-man roster in November of 2022, as the club hoped to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had hit .299/.365/.506 in the minors that year for a wRC+ of 131.
Since Alu already offered a bit of speed and some defensive versatility, the Nats were hoping that the improved offense was a good sign of things to come. Unfortunately, he’s hit just .226/.282/.289 in the majors thus far and just .277/.341/.397 in the minors since the start of 2023, the latter line translating to a wRC+ of 88.
The Nats will now have a week to trade Alu or pass him through waivers. The lack of offense will tamp down the interest somewhat but he still has a couple of options and has played all four infield positions, as well as left field.
