Wade Miley

TODAY: Murphy told Rosiak and other reporters today that Miley is dealing with soreness in his throwing shoulder. While there was no update yet on a timeline, Murphy indicated the injury might not be too serious, as Miley “played catch, played through it. Hasn’t had any problem since. We just want to go slow because of his history.”

YESTERDAY: Brewers left-hander Wade Miley may not be ready for Opening Day, manager Pat Murphy tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Murphy said it’s a “50-50” shot that Miley is ready for the opener but declined to provide any details. “We’ll let you know more in about 10 days,” he said.

It’s a vaguely ominous update that comes out of nowhere, as there hasn’t been any previous reporting to suggest that anything was up with Miley. He hasn’t yet appeared in a Spring Training contest, but that’s true of a lot of pitchers at this relatively early stage of the spring.

Meaningful conclusions can’t be drawn without more information but the rotation depth in Milwaukee is weaker than it has been in a long time, so any kind of uncertainty will be concerning. Brewers fans have been able to enjoy a staff fronted by co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for the past few years, but that won’t be the case in 2024. Burnes has been traded to the Orioles while Woodruff will be out for much of the year recovering from shoulder surgery.

On paper, the rotation now projects to be fronted by Freddy Peralta, followed by some combination of Miley, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, DL Hall, Joe Ross, Aaron Ashby and Janson Junk, with plenty of uncertainty in that group. Junis has done some solid work of late but mostly in a swing role, having not topped 112 innings since 2019. Rea had a decent season in Milwaukee last year but that was his first meaningful big league action since 2016. Hall is not too far removed from being a notable prospect but there are concerns about his control and workload. Ross didn’t pitch in the big leagues in the past two years due to Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Ashby missed all of last year after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder. Junk has just 32 big league innings and a 4.42 ERA in his Triple-A work.

Amid all of that uncertainty, Miley was going to be one of the more reliable options, despite his own history. Now 37 years old, he hasn’t topped 170 innings since 2015. Only twice since 2017 has he thrown more than last year’s 120 1/3 innings. He missed time last year due to a left lat strain and left elbow discomfort but still made 23 starts, though elbow and shoulder issues limited him to just 37 frames the year prior.

While there’s no clarity on what’s currently holding back Miley or how serious it is, his personal injury history and the lack of established rotation options is undoubtedly a situation worth monitoring for the Brewers. Despite the losses of Burnes and Woodruff, the club still aims to contend this year, having spent money on players like Junis, Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez to help them defend their division title.

If the club eventually decides it needs further additions, there are still options available in free agency at this late stage of the winter. It would be a shock to see the low-spending Brewers pursue a marquee name like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but a run at someone like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi or old friend Eric Lauer isn’t out of the question. RosterResource lists this year’s club payroll at $109MM. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club had an Opening Day payroll of $119MM last year and $132MM the year prior.

There could perhaps be some powder dry there for another move, even though we’re now in the month of March. Another alternative could be for the club to turn to its prospect depth. Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski are two of the club’s most notable prospects, though neither is on the 40-man roster and Misiorowski has made just five starts above High-A.

5:27 PM: Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates this evening that the Brewers and Miley are “moving closer” to a deal, while noting that an agreement between the sides would be a one-year arrangement.

9:57 AM: It would appear as though the Brewers and Wade Miley are making progress on a reunion, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal predicts that a deal between the two sides will “materialize in the coming days.”  Miley pitched for Milwaukee during the 2018 season and then returned to the Brew City last season on a one-year, $4.5MM deal with a $10MM mutual option for 2024.  Like with virtually all mutual options, it wasn’t exercised, as Miley declined his end of the option and took a $1MM buyout to re-enter free agency.

Some elbow soreness and a lat strain limited Miley to 120 1/3 innings last season, but that was still a vast improvement over his injury-riddled 2022 campaign as a member of the Cubs roster.  Miley’s comeback year included a very solid 3.14 ERA over his 120 1/3 frames, though advanced metrics (like a 5.04 SIERA) were much less impressed by the veteran’s performance.  Miley benefited from a .234 BABIP and an 81.6% strand rate, and his 16.1% strikeout rate ranked in only the eighth percentile of all pitchers.

These numbers notwithstanding, secondary metrics have often been down on Miley over the course of his 13-year career, as the left-hander has never been much of a strikeout pitcher and he has relied on grounders (49% career groundball rate) and soft contact to achieve success.  Miley’s efforts at limiting hard contact have been particularly successful over the last few years, and his 31.3% hard-hit ball rate was one of the better marks in baseball in 2023.

This skillset has led to some pretty varied results over Miley’s long career, as the BABIP gods haven’t always been on his side.  Nonetheless, the Brewers still seem interested in what Miley can bring to the table as he enters his age-37 season, and Rosenthal notes that the team also values his off-the-field contributions as a clubhouse leader.  It is probably safe to assume that Miley will sign another relatively inexpensive one-year contract, perhaps with another option of some sort covering the 2025 season.  That is surely appealing to a Brewers team with a limited budget, and a need for some extra depth in the rotation.

Should Miley return, he’ll join Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and (another re-signed pitcher in) Colin Rea as the projected starting five, with depth options that include Janson Junk, top prospect Robert Gasser, and Aaron Ashby returning from an injury-marred 2023 season.  There is plenty of fluidity within this group, however, as rumors persist that Milwaukee could trade Burnes prior to his final year of team control.