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Minor-League Labor Changes Under Consideration

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Major League Baseball is engaged in talks that could lead to significant changes to the labor situation of minor-league ballplayers, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports. Initial talks have been held with the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues, with “significant increase in salaries, a higher standard of living conditions and better transportation” all on the table.

It’s important to bear in mind that — so far as is apparent from the report — this is a negotiation about rather than with labor. Passan characterizes the initial discussions as a “collective-bargaining session,” though it’s not clear that reflects the situation. The NAPBL is the governing body of Minor League Baseball. It does not, however, represent minor-league players themselves. Neither is it clear whether the MLB Players Association is involve at this stage.

The office of commissioner Rob Manfred seems to be the driving force behind these discussions. While the league successfully secured federal protection for its low-wage approach to the pre-MLB labor force, that also served to boost the visibility of a longstanding issue that is the subject of still-pending litigation. The Blue Jays recently instituted an increased pay scale for their minor-leaguers, which has further nudged things along, and Passan says there’s a recognition at the ownership level that working-condition improvements are warranted.

Details on prospective changes are unknown and still must be negotiated. The actual agreement up for discussion is the MLB-NAPBL accord — a deal that expires in 2020. It had been extended back in 2011, with the sides indicating that the status quo was working to no small amount of mutual satisfaction. That’s no longer the case, at least from the MLB perspective, though that’s not to say that there’s any acrimony in the relationship. The rub of the matter may be that, as Passan puts it, “the expectation is that minor league affiliates would pick up at least some of the burden of the various improvements.” Apart from the salary question, the sides will need to agree upon and sort out the burden of potential workplace and travel improvements.

It remains to be seen what course these talks will take and to what extent they’ll meaningfully improve the lot of minor-league ballplayers.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Colorado ballclub only added a few pieces to its depth chart this winter, but that doesn’t mean the offseason lacked for consequential decisions.

Major League Signings

  • Daniel Murphy, 1B: two years, $24MM (includes mutual option)
  • Total spend: $24MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired RHP Jordan Foley from Yankees in exchange for RHP Jefry Valdez
  • Acquired C Chris Rabago from Royals in exchange for cash considerations (selected in Triple-A Rule 5 from Yankees)

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rockies are coming off of repeat postseason appearances for the first time in franchise history. While the club was bounced in the play-in game in 2017 and was swept in the NLDS last year by the Brewers, fans still savored the first full playoff series since 2009. If they’re to make it back into the tourney for a third-straight campaign, the Rockies will have to do so without a few key members of their recent squads — and without any major outside reinforcements.

This is an organization that has bet on its own players more than most in recent years. GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t swing many trades, preferring instead to hang onto and promote the club’s homegrown talent. His two biggest contracts have come via extensions, not free agent signings. Last year, it was outfielder Charlie Blackmon who secured a big payday to forego the chance to test the open market at the end of the season. This time around, the club took on the much more difficult task of working out a deal with franchise centerpiece Nolan Arenado.

Perhaps the game’s best third baseman, Arenado is a premium defender and excellent power hitter who is only entering his age-28 season. His new deal includes a hefty $33.4MM average annual salary for its newly guaranteed seasons, a record for a position player. And it provides him with full no-trade rights and an opt-out opportunity after the third year. The terms hardly represent a bargain for the Rox, who’ll bear the risk of injury or performance issues that arise during the season to come. But the team surely had legitimate concerns about what it would take to retain Arenado if he was allowed to test the open market.

The Rockies also reached another, less-consequential late-February extension by working out a new deal with manager Bud Black. He’s now under contract through 2022. Black, Bridich, and owner Dick Monfort have seemed to be on the same wavelength since the former took over for Walt Weiss before the 2017 season. It’s hard to argue with the results.

There’s a hypothetical world where second baseman DJ LeMahieu also ended up staying around. The club had interest, but it always seemed a bit lukewarm after a club-wide offseason letdown in 2018. LeMahieu ultimately signed with the Yankees for the same guarantee that the Rockies gave his replacement, Daniel Murphy.

Though he’s closing in on his 34th birthday and wasn’t fully himself last year after returning from knee surgery, Murphy looks to be a clear upgrade with the bat. He’s nowhere near LeMahieu’s class with the glove, but the Rockies won’t be asking him to line up at second base. Instead, the club will slot Murphy in at first while moving around some other pieces to fill in other areas. (More on that below.)

Otherwise, the Rockies’ only outside acquisitions rate mostly as depth. Mark Reynolds may crack the roster as a bench bat, while Alec Asher and Chi Chi Gonzalez boost the pitching ranks. In a manner of speaking, the team addressed one other need by bidding adieu to veterans Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. That’s no slight to the players — both have certainly had their moments through the years and could still be useful contributors. But the organization probably ought to have exchanged pleasantries with Gonzalez for good last winter. Doing so now, while also letting Parra walk, cleared out a left-handed-hitting logjam in the outfield for some younger, cheaper, higher-upside players.

Questions Remaining

We just touched upon (but didn’t name) a few players whose changing status in the Colorado organization could make or break the coming season. Outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia now have an opening to seize major roles. The same holds true for second base/utility candidates Ryan McMahon and Garret Hampson. There’s a fair bit of ceiling for that foursome, though it’s still anyone’s guess which of them will turn out, and to what extent.

Putting real trust in these players carries obvious risk, though it also made good sense. It’s a deserving slate of players. And the Rockies were pressed for payroll space after making some fairly significant outlays on the open market in recent seasons. Mid-season trades can always be considered; it’s worth noting, too, that prized youngster Brendan Rodgers could force his way into the infield picture.

Dahl and Tapia are highly cost-efficient, interesting young players. But neither hits from the right side, meaning that the Rockies again have a skewed outfield mix. That was addressed in part by one other roster shift related to the Murphy-for-LeMahieu substitution. Ian Desmond will move off of first base and into center field, bumping Blackmon to a corner role. That’s a much more sensible alignment, though it remains to be seen how Desmond will handle the work up the middle now that he’s 33 years of age and is a few seasons removed from his previous (and only) season of work in center. Of greater consequence: can Desmond finally emerge from his doldrums at the plate and will Blackmon decline further from a productive-but-not-peak showing in 2018?

If there’s a glaring weakness on this roster, it’s behind the dish. Chris Iannetta is closing in on his 36th birthday and suffered through down season last year both with the bat and in the framing department. Tony Wolters is younger and scored well at earning strikes for his pitchers last year, but has been a dreadful hitter the past two seasons. While Tom Murphy remains an intriguing player given his offensive output in the minors, he’s a bit of a wild card. All things considered, it’s a bit surprising that the Rockies didn’t find a way to improve the catching situation this winter.

The bullpen is the other area of concern on paper. Adam Ottavino was the team’s best reliever last year, but he was never a realistic target in free agency. The club had little choice but to put its hope in a group of arms in which it is heavily invested. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn are all earning big bucks; only Davis was a quality performer last year, and he wasn’t at this best. Seunghwan Oh succeeded after a mid-season trade; the team will cross its fingers that he and Scott Oberg can repeat their strong seasons and that Chris Rusin can rediscover his form. Otherwise, we’ll see some younger arms in action. Antonio Senzatela will be sidelined to open the season but could factor in again once he’s up to speed; Yency Almonte, DJ Johnson, Harrison Musgrave, Carlos Estevez, Rayan Gonzalez, and Jesus Tinoco are among the options on the 40-man.

So … we’ve made it this far in a Rockies discussion without talking about the rotation? That’s a good thing, as the unit didn’t need upgrading and looks rather interesting once again. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland will hope to repeat as a quality 1-2 punch, with the talented Jon Gray still a threat to overtake both. Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis seem like reasonable choices at the back of the staff. Perhaps Jeff Hoffman can still tap into some upside; Peter Lambert could make himself a factor. Otherwise, there’s some depth in some of the hurlers listed already above, along with Ryan Castellani and minor-league signees Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Alec Asher.

2019 Season Outlook

Overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West will be a very tough task, but the Rockies probably have the best shot to do so of the rest of the teams in the division. The Wild Card won’t be an easy back-up plan, either, as a densely packed National League figures to be full of competition. It’s clear that the Rockies believe their window is open, as it continues to set payroll records and is probably on track to do so again next year (when including reasonable guesses at arbitration salaries). That could set the stage for some interesting trade deadline decisions.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rockies' offseason?
C 38.72% (1,169 votes)
B 34.45% (1,040 votes)
D 13.55% (409 votes)
A 8.55% (258 votes)
F 4.74% (143 votes)
Total Votes: 3,019

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Marlins spun off their best-remaining player and back-filled with some low-cost veterans as their rebuilding effort continues to inch forward.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Miami Marlins Depth Chart | Miami Marlins Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

This time last year, we were looking back at a whirlwind first winter for the Derek Jeter-led Miami ownership group. It was decidedly less hectic this time around, as Jeter (the CEO), president of baseball operations Michael Hill, and their staff methodically worked through a rather limited checklist. If we’re being honest, there were two items on the agenda that greatly outweighed the others in importance.

While much of the baseball-watching world was gearing up for the World Series, the Marlins were finalizing a major move on the international amateur market. The club inked Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. to contracts that came with a combined $6.25MM in bonuses — a relative pittance when compared to free agent spending, but a big chunk of change in relation to the hard-capped international spending pool allocation. Victor Victor, in particular, is seen as a big score for the Marlins. He’s not far from the majors and is already graded in some circles as a top-100 leaguewide prospect.

Working out the numbers on the brothers Mesa meant spinning off assets to acquire additional spending capacity. Sending out young righty Ryan Lillie was certainly understandable, though it was a bit more surprising to see the Fish part with Kyle Barraclough to finish topping off the tank. Though he had a rough second half in 2018 and has always been uncomfortably walk-prone, Barraclough has a pretty lofty established ceiling and remains both cheap and youthful. The Marlins might have achieved much greater value had they waited to see if Barraclough could bounce back early in 2019, or even just explored the market further, but they obviously felt he was an expendable piece in their effort to take advantage of a rare opportunity to land a premium prospect.

Having added three Victors and two Mesas to the organizational depth chart, the Marlins turned to marketing their last holdover core player. Backstop J.T. Realmuto seemed likely to be traded last winter, when the Marlins auctioned off a trio of star outfielders (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna). But he never drew an offer that suited the club. It was much the same story at the 2018 trade deadline. In the meantime, Realmuto rewarded the risk the organization took by continuing to run him out behind the plate, turning in a big .277/.340/.484 campaign with the bat and establishing himself as the game’s best all-around catcher.

As it turned out, the Marlins oversaw quite an extended negotiating process for Realmuto. Suitors came and went, with a variety of big names reportedly talked about — or, at least, asked for by the Miami club — over several months. The initial packages sought by the Fish were said to be staggering, with the organization no doubt comfortable knowing it would be able to fall back on a very good offer even if it failed to land a true haul. There was no shortage of interest. By the end, nearly a third of the teams in baseball — the Dodgers, Padres, Reds, Rays, Braves, Astros, Yankees, Mets, and Nationals — had pursued Realmuto at one point or another.

It ultimately took a compromise to get something done. Two affordable years of Realmuto’s services was a significant prize, but not one that teams were willing to go wild to achieve. In early February, the Marlins landed an appealing but hardly overwhelming three-part package from the Phillies. The club secured a high-ceiling, high-risk pitching prospect in Sixto Sanchez, who by most accounts tops Victor Victor and the rest of the Miami farm as the team’s top prospect, along with another solid young arm in Will Stewart. Also coming in the deal was young receiver Jorge Alfaro, who brings some upside, a decent floor, and plenty of seasons of cheap control.

Alfaro, notably, will step right into Realmuto’s shoes. While his acquisition is ultimately about the future, it also solved an immediate need. The Marlins had some other holes to plug as well, with the resulting rummaging occupying most of the club’s attention beyond its work on the aforementioned items. If things shake out as hoped, the club will benefit from having a few veterans around before spinning them off to contenders this summer; perhaps it’ll also find a keeper or two among the younger players it brought in.

The Marlins ultimately doled out only $4.5MM in guaranteed money over the winter, though they’ll likely commit some more when their Opening Day roster is announced. On the position-player side, veteran second baseman Neil Walker is expected to occupy first base in Miami. He’ll reunite with former Mets teammate Curtis Granderson, who took a minors deal but will likely be added to the roster and promised $1.75MM to play a significant role in the corner outfield. The upside here is limited. Walker had his worst full season as a big leaguer last year; Granderson is days away from his 38th birthday and ought to be limited to platoon duties. But both players could easily perform up to and past the low salary levels they’ll play for. Walker was a steadily above-average hitter for eight-straight campaigns before turning in a dud, while Granderson was capable of a .242/.351/.431 slash in 403 plate appearances last year.

A few other notable names were brought in on minors pacts. Pedro Alvarez has loads of MLB experience, though he’s not an easy fit for a National League team. The Fish picked up a few middle-infield options — including once-highly regarded prospects Dixon Machado, Deven Marrero, and Rosell Herrera.

Likewise, the Marlins focused on ensuring sufficient bullpen depth. Veteran Sergio Romo will help anchor the pen. He still gets plenty of swings and misses and comes at an affordable rate of pay. Rule 5 pick Riley Ferrell will compete with a host of other low-risk acquisitions, including trade acquisition Nick Anderson, claimee Austin Brice, and minor-league signee Hector Noesi (who’s returning from the KBO). The resulting relief mix is anything but intimidating, but it’ll be a place the Marlins can try out some arms in hope of unearthing some hidden gems.

Questions Remaining

It’ll come as no surprise that there are quite a few holes left on the resulting roster. The Marlins brought up the rear in the National League last year and seem all but assured of doing so once again, particularly with the remainder of the eastern division made up of organizations that have set about improving their rosters this winter. Under such circumstances, the questions aren’t really about the resulting record — it won’t be pretty — so much as the potential for mid-season deals and the development of young talent.

We haven’t yet touched upon the rotation, and that’s because the Marlins didn’t do so all winter long. Dan Straily seemed a potential trade piece but hasn’t drawn enough interest for the Fish to justify parting with his useful, reasonably affordable innings. That could change by the end of July. Now that he’s into his arbitration years, Jose Urena is also a fairly plausible trade chip. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has outperformed his peripherals over the past two seasons, turning in a 3.90 cumulative ERA. The club would surely love to dump some of the money still owed to Wei-Yin Chen, but that’ll require a major turnaround. Otherwise, the Marlins will simply be focused on bringing along some younger arms. Trevor Richards, Caleb Smith, and Pablo Lopez are at the top of the depth chart entering camp, with Sandy Alcantara and Jeff Brigham among those who could factor throughout the season.

As already noted, the relief unit figures to be more of a proving ground than a well-oiled machine. Closer Drew Steckenrider could be a trade candidate if he throws well; he’s still two years away from arbitration but is already 28 years old. It’s not tough to guess that Romo will be watched by rival scouts from the start of the season, with lefty Adam Conley also getting a look after his bounceback 2018. Those two hurlers are the only two members of the relief staff who have surpassed two years of MLB service. Unless Noesi sneaks into the pen, Romo will enter the season with more time on his service clock than all his bullpen mates combined.

There’s quite a lot of room for churn on the position-player side of the roster as well. Up the middle, Alfaro will get a long run. Second bagger Starlin Castro has been a walking trade candidate since he landed in Miami but hasn’t piqued much interest. It’s possible he’ll be moved this summer; otherwise, the team will surely buy him out at season’s end rather than picking up a club option. At this point, he’s keeping the seat warm for Isan Diaz. Shortstop was obviously an area targeted for some competition. Machado and Merrero will push JT Riddle and Miguel Castro in the hopes that one or more of these players finds an extra gear.

In center field, the team will presumably let Lewis Brinson try to sort things out. Brinson can still be optioned down to work out the kinks, though he has already shown he can produce at Triple-A. Prospects Monte Harrison and Magneuris Sierra already have 40-man spots and could get looks of their own if Brinson can’t improve upon a ghastly 2018 showing.

Any of those players could also end up seeing time in the corner outfield as well. To open the season, though, right-handed hitters Peter O’Brien, Garrett Cooper, and Austin Dean are all in the mix to handle things in conjunction with the left-handed-hitting Granderson. Brian Anderson had lined up at times in the outfield last year but is slated to play third base in 2019. The job there is his so long as he can manage anything approaching his strong rookie campaign. Otherwise, Martin Prado will play out his contract in a utility capacity, if he can stay on the field after two lost seasons.

2019 Season Outlook

While the American League is full of rebuilding clubs, the Marlins are the only N.L. outfit that is completely committed to a future-oriented approach. That doesn’t bode well for their win-loss record in 2019, but does mean they can likely look forward to excellent draft position in the summer of 2020. With the team’s key trade pieces already moved, the season to come will be all about developing and identifying potential core pieces for the Marlins’ first contender of the Jeter era.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Marlins' Offseason?
F 30.79% (1,797 votes)
D 28.56% (1,667 votes)
C 24.60% (1,436 votes)
B 13.04% (761 votes)
A 3.02% (176 votes)
Total Votes: 5,837

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nick Cafardo Passes Away

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Longtime Boston Globe baseball writer and reporter Nick Cafardo passed away suddenly today at the age of 62. A veteran sportswriter of more than three decades, Cafardo was among the most recognizable and respected voices in the industry. The Red Sox organization issued a statement on the unexpected, tragic loss:

We are saddened by the sudden loss of long-time baseball reporter, Nick Cafardo. For over three decades, Nick was a fixture at Fenway Park and throughout ballparks across the country. His coverage was as consistent as the game itself.  His opinions on the Red Sox and the most pressing issues facing Major League Baseball were a constant, particularly through the prominent Sunday baseball notes column in the Boston Globe. The Cafardo family will always be a part of the Boston baseball family, and the Red Sox will honor Nick’s legacy at the appropriate time.

John Tomase of WEEI, longtime Globe colleague Dan Shaughnessy and the MLB Network are among the many who’ve put together touching tributes honoring the memory of one of the industry’s most recognizable authors. We at MLBTR offer our deepest condolences to the family and close friends of Cafardo, and also to the countless readers for whom his excellent coverage had become essential reading over the years.

Free Special Report: The Truth About Projections, ADPs And Winning

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POP QUIZ: Name the player who belongs to this 2019 projection:

AB      R      HR      RBI      SB      Avg
550     85      25          75         5        .260

Is it Rafael Devers? Could it be Matt Chapman, or maybe Stephen Piscotty? How about Asdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie? Actually, there are 49 players who could reasonably post this stat line. However, they are currently being drafted anywhere from Round 3 to Round 32!

Mining the gaps between the projections and draft behavior is the secret to a fantasy baseball title. Here’s how to uncover dozens of profit opportunities for Draft Day 2019!

Get this FREE REPORT now!

This is a sponsored post from Ron Shandler.

MLB Opposed To Near-Term Adoption Of Universal DH

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MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said today at the owners’ meetings that the league is not interested in considering certain union-proposed changes in advance of the 2019 season, as Ronald Blum of the AP reports. In particular, Manfred indicated he is not open to the introduction of the designated hitter to the National League.

It emerged recently that MLB and the MLB Players Association were exchanging proposals on a variety of significant potential rules changes. Some of those, including the introduction of a twenty-second pitch clock and a rule requiring any pitcher that enters a game to face at least three hitters, were set forth by the league.

Manfred indicated that he was pleased the union responded to the league’s proposals, a fact which some observers have pointed to as a positive step given the chilly (if not altogether frozen) negotiation atmosphere between the sides of late. Despite the less-testy signals, though, it seems the league isn’t inclined to budge on any substantive matters.

It’s not at all surprising to hear that MLB doesn’t wish to pursue an immediate implementation of the DH in the NL. With a good bit of the offseason movement already in the books, it’d be an odd time to make such a move. That’s all the more true of some of the other union-backed proposals involving draft incentives and service time, which surely would require extensive analysis and negotiation.

It is notable, though, that Manfred suggested the league is also generally not receptive to considering the expansion of the DH until the conclusion of the present Collective Bargaining Agreement, at the end of the 2021 campaign. An unnamed official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that such a change is “not happening during this CBA.”

If that is indeed MLB’s committed stance, it seems to represent an intention to take a hard line on reopening the current rules regime before the deal is up. The issue of the universal DH seemed at least to offer a potential path to mutual benefit, as the league could market a bump in offense while veteran sluggers would find easier paths to roster spots and extra earnings.

Manfred, though, characterized that proposal (and others from the union) as presenting “significant economic issues” that are “different than the type of playing rule changes that we have out there.” That’s certainly true to an extent, but it’s also a bit of a partisan characterization of the league’s own suggestion that pitchers be required to face at least three batters. It’s debatable exactly how the ramifications of that rule would settle out in terms of player earnings, but it would certainly impact the way teams structure their rosters and invest in certain players (in that case, veteran LOOGYs) in much the same way as a universal DH.

It’ll be interesting to see where these discussions go from here. Manfred says the league “will engage on” the subjects raised by the union, so perhaps there’s still some room for an opening. It all takes place against the backdrop of a still-sluggish free agent market in which two young superstars and several other prominent players remain unsigned. Manfred acknowledged today that the hope is to see both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado under contract when Spring Training opens, though even if that occurs it’s hardly a guarantee of a reduction in tension. For the time being, both the league and union will presumably continue to trade words on these and other matters — cognizant all the while that these may be the preliminary skirmishes of a building public relations battle.

10 Low-Cost Free Agent Power Options

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With just two weeks to go until camp, even the ongoing lack of action at the top of the free agent market probably won’t stem the tide of smaller signings. Curtis Granderson just went off the board on a minor-league deal, taking one veteran power bat out of the picture. But there are other slugger types that remain available and who figure to command one-year or minor-league deals.

For purposes of this list, we’ll be ignoring those players who MLBTR predicted to secure multi-year deals entering the winter. We will be looking primarily at players who have shown double-digit home run power in recent seasons — even if their most recent campaigns featured less-than-fearsome power displays. That characterization also applies to a few who aren’t listed below, but these ten stood out.

Left-Handed Hitters

Carlos Gonzalez, OF: While he has produced only thirty long balls over the past two seasons, Gonzalez has turned in one 40-bomb campaign (in 2015) and still is at least an average overall offensive producer. It remains to be seen what kind of shot he’ll get on his next deal, but the former star could still make for an intriguing risk.

Derek Dietrich, INF/OF: It may sound odd to say it, but Dietrich has arguably been the most consistently productive offensive performer on this list over the past four seasons. He’s a .262/.344/.428 hitter (114 OPS+) in that stretch and popped a career-best 16 homers in 2018. Plus, he can at least fake it at second and third, in addition to the corner outfield and first base.

Lucas Duda, 1B: Things really haven’t gone well for Duda since he was dealt to the Ray sin the middle of the 2017 campaign, but he was quite an accomplished power bat before that. The first bagger did also manage to put up 14 home runs in 367 plate appearances last year, so the power is still there.

Logan Morrison, 1B: After a monster 2017 season in which he launched a career-high 38 home runs, LoMo suffered through an injury-addled 2018 campaign. He did swat another 15 balls out of the yard in 359 plate appearances, though, so the power is still there. Teams willing to take on some health risk could be rewarded.

Matt Joyce, OF: It has been a bit of a roller coaster in recent seasons for Joyce, but he’s still an interesting potential platoon outfielder. Last year was a wash, but he hit 25 bombs in 2017. Joyce owns a .240/.339/.431 lifetime batting line.

Right-Handed Hitters

Adam Jones, OF: The 33-year-old has pretty much been a perennial 20-plus homer center fielder ever since establishing himself in the majors. He dropped back to 15 last year, but seems a reasonable rebound candidate in the power department. Of course, Jones has never been much of an on-base threat and now seems slated to move into a corner outfield role, so those factors will limit his appeal even to teams that like his pop.

Evan Gattis, DH: Gattis popped 25 long balls last year, though his on-base numbers took a nosedive. It’s a similar story for Gattis’s six-year career, over which he carries a .476 slugging percentage but only a .300 OBP. Still, an American League team that wants righty power will have to take a close look at the 32-year-old.

Matt Holliday, OF: True, he’s already 39 years of age and sat out for almost all of the 2018 season. But Holliday did make a late-season return with the Rockies and showed that he can still get things done at the MLB level, with a .283/.415/.434 slash in 65 plate appearances. Holliday was such a good hitter and consistent power source over most of his prior 14 seasons that he could still be seen as an intriguing option.

Hanley Ramirez, 1B: Though Ramirez’s offensive struggles are well-documented, he was still consistently knocking the ball out of the park before being cut loose by the Red Sox. Ramirez was on pace to top twenty dingers for the third-straight season when the Boston organization let him go. Last we heard, HanRam intends to play in 2019. He has hit well in winter ball, though there haven’t been any rumors of specific interest.

Jose Bautista, OF: The homer tallies are down. The batting average is hovering just over the Mendoza line. And if there’s a notable skill remaining, it’s Bautista’s still-otherworldly ability to draw walks (16.8% in 2018). That being said, it takes more than a keen eye to post that kind of walk rate. Pitchers also have to respect a hitter. Bautista posted a .175 isolated power mark and still put the ball over the fence 13 times in 399 plate appearances last year, and reeled off eight-straight 20+  homer campaigns before that.

MLBTR Poll: The Reds’ Rebuilt Rotation

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The Reds entered this winter determined to boost their club’s performance at the MLB level, even if an anticipated new core hasn’t quite fully come together. On the heels of four-straight campaigns with less than seventy wins and last-place division finishes, it was and is an understandable goal — albeit one that called for careful handling to avoid denting the long-term outlook.

At the top of the docket, without question, was the improvement of a rotation that has been the game’s worst over that approximate span. While the team has ended up adding two outfielders with major name recognition — Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig — they don’t really change the overall complexion of the position-player unit. The Reds had a middle-of-the-pack lineup and bullpen in 2018. Perhaps there’s some hope that either or both of those groups (the former, particularly) will improve in the season to come. But the rotation was the major impediment, and there’s little doubting that the quality of the newly rebuilt pitching staff will have a huge say in the club’s outlook in a division that promises to feature quite a bit of competition.

When GM Nick Krall said recently that this’ll be the “best rotation we’ve had in five years,” he wasn’t exactly staking out a bold position. The standard isn’t terribly lofty. If the Cincy outfit wishes to compete, though, it’ll need to do more than just top its abysmal recent starting rotation work.

Let’s take a quick snapshot of where things stand now in the starting five, beginning with the newly hired guns:

  • Sonny Gray: The most recently-acquired of the team’s three new hurlers is also the one who received the biggest commitment. In addition to his preexisting $7.5MM salary for 2019, the Reds are taking on $30.5MM in new money over three years (while also gaining another season of control via option). Though his upside is perhaps easy to exaggerate, as he handily overperformed his peripherals in his best campaigns with the Athletics, Gray seems largely to have the physical skills intact that made him a high-quality, 200+-inning starter in 2014 and 2015.
  • Alex Wood: Long known as a talented but injury-prone pitcher, Wood has mostly provided a good quantity of innings. He showed quite a bit of ceiling upon landing with the Dodgers, but wasn’t quite as sharp last year and exhibited a 2 mph year-over-year velocity decline. Though his salary isn’t yet decided, Wood will check in with a salary between $8.7MM (the team’s filing figure) and $9.65MM (his own) in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
  • Tanner Roark: As with Wood, the former Nationals hurler arrived via trade in advance of his last season of control. Slated to earn an even $10MM, Roark has been longer on innings than results over the past two seasons. But he did spin two outstanding campaigns before that, even if those results weren’t fully supported by the peripherals, and has been an exceptionally durable pitcher since emerging in D.C. Roark seems a good bet to provide a steady volume of at-least good-enough frames for the Cincinnati organization.

The trio joins the following holdovers:

  • Luis Castillo: The sophomore slump  that Castillo experienced didn’t turn out to be all that bad, as he finished with a 4.30 ERA and 8.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 over 169 2/3 innings after turning on the afterburners down the stretch. In his final 11 starts, Castillo spun 66 1/3 frames of 2.44 ERA ball with a 69:14 K/BB ratio. He’s still just 26 years of age and still thrws gas. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Castillo is the likeliest member of the new-look Reds outfit to turn in top-of-the-rotation numbers, and his track record to date suggests he ought to be good at least for a nice volume of solid frmes.
  • Anthony DeSclafani: Maybe we’ll look back at the end of the 2019 season and wonder why we had questions. After all, DeSclafani did show some signs of returning to his prior form in 2018 — it’s just that they were obfuscated by a barrage of long balls (1.88 per nine; 19.8% HR/FB rate) that left him with a 4.93 ERA. Still, he managed to tally 115 innings after missing all of the prior season, sported a career-high 94+ average fastball, and matched his career average with a 9.4% swinging-strike rate. True, DeSclafani did surrender loads of hard contact (41.9%), but it seems he has regained much of his physical ability.
  • Tyler Mahle: Long considered a talented hurler, the 24-year-old sputtered in his first full effort at the game’s highest level. With 22 balls leaving the yard in his 112 frames, and a less-than-trim tally of 4.3 BB/9, it’s hardly surprising to see a 4.98 ERA on the final-season ledger. That said, Mahle also ran up 8.8 K/9 on the basis of a 9.9% swinging-strike rate. If any of the above-listed pitchers falters in camp or during the year, whether due to performance or injury issues, Mahle looks to be a nice piece to have on hand.
  • Other depth arms: The remaining potential rotation candidates seem to have little hope of competing for a starting job in camp — barring injury, of course. Still, there are some plausible pieces to work with in Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, Keury Mella, and non-roster veteran Odrisamer Despaigne.

Looking at the overall picture, if you focus on established MLB ceiling, there’s a clear path to a quality unit. True, none of the five most accomplished pitchers — Gray, Wood, Roark, Castillo, and DeSclafani — has really ever been a dominant ace. But at their best, every one of these hurlers has had an extended run as at least a high-quality, mid-rotation starter. On the other hand, all five (to say nothing of the other players listed above) have shown their warts in the not-so-distant past. Only Wood finished the 2018 season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

So, how do you view the offseason efforts of the Cincinnati baseball operations unit to cobble together a pitching staff?

How Would You Characterize The Reds' Rebuilt Rotation?
It has a reasonable chance of being good enough to keep the Reds in contention 71.64% (14,617 votes)
It's an underwhelming unit that won't let the Reds keep pace 18.94% (3,865 votes)
This is a quality unit that gives the Reds a real shot at the division 9.41% (1,920 votes)
Total Votes: 20,402

Rosenthal: “Palpable” Threat Of MLB Work Stoppage

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Veteran reporter Ken Rosenthal has sounded the alarm for the possibility of a MLB work stoppage in a piece today at The Athletic (subscription link). He opens the article with the eyebrow-raising observation that “the threat of the sport’s first work stoppage since 1994-95 is palpable.”

Importantly, Rosenthal does not cite sources for the proposition that a strike or lockout are specifically being contemplated now or in the immediate future. But the fact that such a well-placed reporter characterizes the state of affairs in that manner is noteworthy in and of itself. And the piece does document a few nuggets of information that hint that the possibility is in the back of the minds of some. For instance, per the report, the players “have taken the unusual step of authorizing the union to withhold their entire [licensing fees] checks” to keep a reserve fund in place.

It’s hardly novel at this point to see the concept of a labor war floated. Certainly, the increasingly antagonistic relationship between Major League Baseball (and its member teams) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (along with the players that make up its membership) has long been observed. Market changes have been evident since the current CBA went into effect, with last winter’s laborious free-agent market bringing things into sharp focus.

This time last year, it was already clear that change was afoot. But it was generally emphasized, here and elsewhere, that the next winter’s market — that is, the one we’re in at present — would offer a better test due to the presence of uniquely youthful and accomplished superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (along with some other high-end talents). As it turns out, it’s now clear at the winter-long staring contest is not just a one-year phenomenon. Though some significant contracts have been handed out, it’s obvious that teams now have ample resolve when it comes to negotiating major deals.

The question remaining now is how much more cash remains to be distributed — an end game that is upon us with Spring Training closing in. No doubt the union side is still waiting to see precisely how things will shake out, though the above-linked article does not paint a particularly optimistic picture of expectations.

It seems the rub of the issue is just when and how the league and union will head back to the bargaining table on some key elements of the labor accord. Agent Sam Levinson, who warns of a scenario where the sides end up “locking arms and walking off the cliff together,” notes to Rosenthal that “the CBA has been opened in the past to address compelling issues.” Unsurprisingly, MLB chief legal officer Dan Halem has a different perspective, saying he’s “not sure why we are talking about ’walking off the cliff together’ when we are three years away from the expiration of our collective bargaining agreement and there has been no effort by the MLBPA to engage in discussions on these issues.”

As Rosenthal rightly points out, the league surely cannot force teams to spend more money. At the same time, there’s little question that it negotiated the CBA with a healthy dose of foresight regarding the trends in front office valuations, cost-efficient roster-building approaches, and the rising tide of young, affordable talent. While teams likewise cannot be faulted for seeking and seizing advantage, both in collective bargaining talks and in their actions under the bargained-for rules regime, there does seem at minimum to be a legitimate need to, as Rosenthal puts it, “work around the edges of the CBA to create incentives for teams to compete to the fullest.”

Just what that might look like, and how it might come together, isn’t at all clear — hence, the sense of tension. But it’s interesting to wonder whether a solution might not be found in an area that ought to be of concern to all involved. There’s a major competitive imbalance in the American League, in particular, that likely has not only strongly contributed to depressions in the free-agent market, but has likewise impacted the league’s increasing attendance problem. While that concern has been dismissed by some (including myself) in the past, it seems more and more to be a root issue.

Is there a means of inducing more teams to seek near-term wins, such that the overall MLB product (and its revenue-producing capacity) is improved and such that teams have good reason to spend more on players? Might there be a positive, collaborative path to pursue, which may at least offer a partial solution to the labor rumblings while also helping to reduce misgivings? We will have to see how things proceed, but it would surely behoove all involved to begin looking for ways to engage in a constructive manner.

Tigers Name Kirk Gibson Special Assistant To GM

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The Tigers announced yesterday that they have named Kirk Gibson to a post as special assistant to general manager Al Avila. He will continue to cover the team as an analyst as well.

Gibson, now 61, will re-join the organization that originally drafted him in the first round back in 1978. He went on to turn in 17 seasons in the majors, including a dozen years in Detroit (where he began and ended his MLB career). Thereafter, Gibson served as a big league coach (including with the Tigers) and eventually became the manager of the Diamondbacks.

Everything changed with a diagnosis of Parkinson’s in 2015, but Gibson has nevertheless remained active, offering a softened version of his famously intense persona. It’s certainly good to see that he’s capable of adding to his plate. In his new role with the Tigers’ org, per the announcement, Gibson “will assist in on-field duties at both the Major League and Minor League levels, be involved in all personnel meetings, travel throughout the Minor League system and participate in community relations.”

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