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MLBPA Rejects Proposal For Multiyear Contract Deadline

By Connor Byrne | October 31, 2019 at 6:41pm CDT

One of the main criticisms of Major League Baseball’s recent free-agent periods is that star players have gone too long without signing contracts. Just last offseason, the game’s two premier free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, didn’t ink deals until a few weeks before the regular campaign started. The same was true of Jake Arrieta, to name one prominent example, the prior winter. But MLB has shown interest in cutting down on big-name stragglers on the open market, Evan Drellich of The Athletic explains (subscription link). Earlier this month, the league sent a proposal to the MLBPA that would’ve placed a cutoff date on free agents signing multiyear contracts, but the union summarily shot it down, according to Drellich.

“After due consideration, we rejected their proposal as not being in the best interests of players,” MLBPA senior director of collective bargaining and legal Bruce Meyer said (via Drellich). “We asked if MLB was interested in discussing other, more direct and tangible ways of incentivizing early signings and they weren’t at this time.”

Had the union said yes to the league’s idea, there wouldn’t have been any contracts of more than one year doled out past the Dec. 8-12 winter meetings. MLB at least wanted to implement the plan on a one-year trial basis this winter, Drellich reports, but the union didn’t think it would benefit the players because it might have given too much leverage to the teams. In the MLBPA’s estimation, a multiyear signing deadline would have created a “take-it-or-leave-it” mentality among some free agents, who may have felt pressured to accept an offer before the drop-dead date, potentially decreasing their earning power.

Of course, there’s also an argument a deadline would’ve taken away quite a bit of offseason intrigue. In leagues like the NFL, NBA and NHL, free agency often opens with a mad rush of headline-worthy moves before becoming rather dull with most of the top players off the board. For better or worse (depending on your perspective), that hasn’t really been the case in baseball, nor does it look as if it will be this offseason with super-agent Scott Boras set to oversee negotiations for the likes of Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and perhaps J.D. Martinez. Boras clients (including Harper and Arrieta) have shown a willingness to hang on the open market for months until the absolute best deal comes along.

The outspoken Boras shared his opinion on MLB’s rejected FA proposal with Drellich, saying in part: “They want to make the offseason more predictive as to when players sign, and the answer to do that is to provide incentive, not limitation, on the free-agent right. A player has six years, he should determine when he signs, that should be his choice, because he’s earned that right. Any restriction, any limitation on that timeframe would restrict the right. Because some clubs make decisions in February they wouldn’t make in December. And there’s obviously a strong history for that.”

MiLB President Responds To MLB Restructuring Proposal

By Dylan A. Chase | October 19, 2019 at 6:42pm CDT

Yesterday, MLBTR relayed news that Major League Baseball is pursuing a “radical restructuring” of the lower minor-leagues, with reports indicating that the league is proposing the elimination of roughly one-quarter of current affiliate teams. While deputy commissioner Dan Halem framed these potential changes as being to the benefit of MiLB ballplayers (being that a reorganization would, in theory, allow for better pay, upgraded facilities, and streamlined travel accommodations), it does not sound as if officials from Minor League Baseball are on board with this proposed sea change.

In a report for The Athletic, writer Evan Drellich says an “enormous chasm” exists between MLB and MiLB as the two seek to organize a new working arrangement (link). MLB’s move toward en masse affiliate contraction does not sit well with MiLB, with MiLB President Pat O’Conner revealing that legal action is a possibility if a return to the bargaining table does not produce a more mutually appealing proposal.

“If we are forced to defend ourselves and fight for our mere survival, we will,” O’Conner told Drellich. “We would hope to negotiate a reasonable settlement with MLB. Short of that we have multiple options. Appealing to Congress, state, county and local elected officials is certainly one of them.” It is worth noting that legal action is characterized as a “last resort” in Drellich’s report.

Drellich also gives equal time to Halem, with the deputy commish reiterating the proposal’s intended benefits toward player working conditions–including increased wages. Halem also asserts that the introduction of advanced analytics and scouting methods have reduced the viability of maintaining such a deep stack of affiliate clubs, since 95% of players drafted after the 25th round never reach the majors. The implications here are interesting, with Halem suggesting the effective value of lower-level teams has decreased as MLB clubs have improved in the location and development of premier talent. “It is a tough sell to tell Major League Clubs that they need to hire more players than they may need in order to provide free labor to the minor league clubs,” Halem states.

For a complete history of the centuries-spanning working arrangement between MLB teams and their affiliates, Baseball America’s JJ Cooper details the oft-contentious process involved in maintaining a talent development pipeline that is unique among major American sports (link). The working arrangement that binds the two entities, entitled the Professional Baseball Agreement, is set to expire after the 2020 season.

Agent Matt Sosnick Arrested On Charges Of Domestic Violence

By TC Zencka | October 19, 2019 at 12:14pm CDT

MLB agent Matt Sosnick was arrested in Northern California on charges of domestic violence and misdemeanor child endangerment dating to an incident that occurred with his wife on October 8, TMZ Sports recently reported. He was arrested a second time on Oct. 9 for violating conditions of a temporary restraining order that was filed against him.

Erica Sosnick is the alleged victim in this case against him. She has filed for divorce, though her attorney has stated an intention to dismiss the restraining order filed against Mr. Sosnick.

When reached by MLBTR, the MLBPA, which is in charge of certifying agents, declined to comment. Disciplinary action could be forthcoming, as the MLBPA agent regulations do contain provisions requiring that agents refrain from “unlawful conduct.” Whether and how the regulations might be applied in this case is not evident at this time.

Sosnick’s agency, Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon Sports represents a number of high-profile ballplayers, including Pete Alonso, Max Kepler, and Blake Snell. Earlier today, Paul Cobbe of Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon Sports released the following statement regarding fellow partner Matt Sosnick: “Domestic violence of any type is a concern to all of us, and our agency views the recent arrest of and allegations levied against Matt Sosnick as a very serious matter. We also believe in an individual’s right to due process, and we will continue to work with all parties involved to ensure that the legal process is allowed to run its course. Because of the familial nature of the accusations, we will refrain from commenting further until the matter is settled.”

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

By Jeff Todd | October 3, 2019 at 8:49am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll now turn to a Reds club that has its eyes fixed on returning to the postseason. Having already pulled off a surprising mid-season strike for veteran righty Trevor Bauer, the Reds will be looking to add a few more key pieces this winter.

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Take Heed Of Other Teams’ Ramp-Up Difficulties

When fans hear Cincinnati baseball ops chief Dick Williams speak of riding a bigger payroll to the postseason, they surely have flashbacks to the team’s recent 2010-13 inflection point. But they should shudder at the thought of what came before (nine-straight losing campaigns) and after (six straight) that four-season stretch. Williams and co. must work not only to get back to the promised land, but to create a sustainable (or at least more swiftly recoverable) means of doing so.

As they ponder the possibilities, the Reds need to be mindful of the recent experiences of the NL-rival Rockies and Diamondbacks — two clubs that have historically occupied similar tax brackets while dealing with the challenges of offensively charged home parks. While the Colorado organization successfully cracked the postseason code for two-straight seasons, its ramped-up free-agent spending — especially, on multiple veteran relievers — didn’t deliver the hoped-for impact. The Rockies have rather swiftly found themselves in a tight payroll spot. Before that, the Snakes slammed the pedal to the floor a bit too hard — the Shelby Miller trade and Zack Greinke signing — and veered right off course.

We’re not suggesting the Reds shouldn’t be excited to fling open a window of contention. But the club needs to measure its moves carefully, especially since it already parted with touted prospect Taylor Trammell in the Bauer swap. Running up payroll for a single season isn’t necessarily a problem, but the club can ill afford multiple, hefty, unproductive contracts like those the Rockies have accumulated. And it will be even more wary of Arizona-like over-exuberance that could cost a rare chance at an extended period of competitiveness.

Precisely how to navigate things will depend upon the opportunities that arise. But the Reds can look to some other National League clubs for guidance. The Braves (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel) and Brewers (Yasmani Grandal) both cashed in with expensive, one-year deals. Had they fallen flat, the clubs would simply have shrugged and moved on. If the Reds are to place a longer-term bet, it probably shouldn’t come in a bidding war on a veteran reliever. Last year’s acquisition and extension of Sonny Gray would be hard to replicate, but spreading the cost over a slightly longer term (as the Rangers have with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor) could give the team a shot at landing a high-quality player at an affordable price.

2. Pursue Upside Up The Middle

It just so happens that the Reds are less-than-settled in the middle infield. Jose Iglesias turned in a solid campaign but is a free agent. Jose Peraza can be tasked with a utility role but not trusted as a regular. The club controls the rights to Freddy Galvis, but he should be a reserve on a contender. Nick Senzel is uber-talented and capable of playing center field or second base, so there’s some flexibility to work with for the Reds. There’s at least a sturdy floor behind the dish, but the defensively renowned Tucker Barnhart doesn’t have much of a bat.

This may be the place for the Reds to strike. On the one hand, the upcoming open market isn’t laden with great possibilities. There are quite a few guys that have at times been solid or better middle infielders, but it’s awfully light on players that appear to be present-talent true regulars. And the center field market is barren. But that also reflects the fact that many teams are already settled in these areas. And there are some intriguing options, including the aforementioned Grandal as well as old friend and bounceback candidate Didi Gregorius. It’s far from clear what’ll be available via trade, but there could be some awfully appealing names dangled. The pie-in-the-sky trade candidates are Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, who can’t be ruled out entirely given their respective organizations’ long-view strategies. It’s much easier to envision Starling Marte coming available, and he’d be quite an interesting target with two cost-controlled seasons left on his deal. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ender Inciarte are among the potentially available players that are somewhat interesting but lower-ceiling possibilities.

Yep, the Reds still need to bear in mind the issues raised in item #1 above. An all-in strategy to go for Semien without an extension in place would likely not be wise. But if the Cincinnati club is going to go past its comfort zone a bit, it ought to be on a player who not only has a sturdy anticipated performance floor but also carries some real star potential. There are relatively few options, so they might need to be explored early. If nothing comes available at a reasonable price, the Reds can pivot to the many affordable options while seeing if anything has fallen through the cracks (Yasiel Puig???) in other areas.

3. Don’t Forget Pitching Depth

Yeah, the Reds got really nice output from their rotation this year and picked up Bauer to help lead the charge in 2020. And they have clear need to improve up the middle and/or with a new outfield bat. But this team could easily get in trouble if it doesn’t allocate some resources to protect the pitching staff, especially with Great American Ball Park as the backdrop.

Here’s the thing to bear in mind when you start thinking about whether and how the Reds can build off of 2019: they are unlikely to enjoy such phenomenal pitching health. Aside from Alex Wood, who returned for seven starts after missing much of the season, the club’s starters were more or less always available when scheduled. And the relief corps received voluminous contributions from its best arms: Amir Garrett made 69 appearances; Robert Stephenson and Raisel Iglesias each cracked sixty innings; Michael Lorenzen threw 83 1/3 frames.

While the Reds might not feel a need to chase improvement in the pitching staff, they ought to be relatively aggressive with spending 2020 cash on depth arms. There are a range of possibilities — the acquisition of a volume swingman, risking a bit of payroll space on a few durable veteran relievers, targeting optionable arms on waiver claims — but the overarching approach must build in some contingencies. Not doing so carries significant risk. Early-season pitching additions can be exceptionally pricey and it’s a long time to wait til the trade deadline when you’re trying to break back into the postseason.

Boras Corp. Amateur Department Research Job Opening

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2019 at 9:41am CDT

From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

Position: Boras Corp. Market Research Analysis & Presentation Design
Location: Southern California

Description:
From our Southern California office you will help support a team of representatives by analyzing baseball markets, creating marketing and presentation materials using multi-media, and managing performance and information databases. The ideal candidate is a creative thinker, well-organized, a good communicator, and team-oriented. While previous experience in baseball is not required, the candidate must possess a passion for the game. This is a full-time position we aim to fill as soon as possible. It is located in Newport Beach, CA (relocation to Orange County is not provided).

Preferred Qualifications:

Proficient in Microsoft Excel and Keynote, Apple iBooks familiarity.
Experience in creating presentations
Prior baseball or team sports experience.

To Apply:

To apply, please send an email with the subject “Research Position” to baseballresume@gmail.com by September 29, 2019.

The body of the email should contain the following, in this order:

Your resume.
In addition to the traditional resume information, please be sure to include any details about athletic experience.
Your full contact information.
How you obtained this listing.
Your minimum annual salary requirement (needs to be a specific dollar figure).

Emails that do not contain all of this information will not be considered. Please do not send cover letters or attachments. Any application with an attachment will be discarded. Non-local candidates must be able to find transportation to Southern California to interview.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Didi Gregorius

By Jeff Todd | August 7, 2019 at 12:58pm CDT

The Xander Bogaerts extension was quite surprising when signed and has only increased in value to the Red Sox since. That deal gave the Yankees’ chief nemesis extended control over a core asset. It also removed the chief potential market rival for New York shortstop Didi Gregorius.

Gregorius will presumably be basking in the glow of a long-term deal when he celebrates his thirtieth birthday at the outset of Spring Training next year. He enjoys a rather favorable free-agent outlook from a structural standpoint, though he’ll likely have to decline a qualifying offer (and take on the drag of draft compensation) to get there. Just scan the list of pending free agents and you’ll see why Gregorius is still sitting pretty despite his somewhat tepid initial showing this year.

There’s some slight possibility Elvis Andrus will opt out of his deal with the Rangers, but the smart money says he’ll stay put in Texas. Veterans like Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, and Jordy Mercer will be seen only as bench or second-division fill-in options. There’s competition on the left side of the infield more generally, with Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson hitting the open market, and there are some other solid options capable of playing third or second base. But teams intent on signing a quality regular shortstop have nowhere else to turn.

The circumstances are ripe for Sir Didi to maximize his value. But the fundamentals will still drive the bidding. Gregorius has still only played about a quarter of a season’s worth of games this year, having missed the early portion of the season due to Tommy John surgery, but he’s also now nearly halfway through his platform presentation. Let’s see where things stand …

In his first three seasons in New York, Gregorius hit at a roughly league-average .276/.313/.432 clip while averaging 18 long balls annually. His power and output was trending northward, but didn’t fully arrive until a breakout 2018 campaign in which he slashed a robust .268/.335/.494, swatted 27 dingers, and posted a much-improved 69:48 K/BB ratio over 569 trips to the plate.

The difference in the offensive output is significant, obviously. Gregorius is generally perceived and graded as a solid fielder and quality baserunner. With even league-average hitting mixed in, he’s arguably a 3 WAR true-talent player. But with the 121 wRC+ performance he put up last year? Now you’re looking at a guy that’s pushing 5 WAR in a good and healthy season.

We’ve seen signs of both ends of the range for Gregorius thus far in 2019. The overall output sits right in range of league average, with a familiar blend of good pop and middling on-base skills. He’s averaging the same above-average sprint speed as usual and has mostly graded in range of average in the field — not that metrics are particularly telling with just over 300 innings as a sample.

Unsurprisingly, Gregorius has chased both high four-seamers (as he has long been wont to do) and low offspeed offerings (ditto). Pitchers have long attacked him in this manner — and for good reason. Chasing lots of pitches out of the zone has been a part of the Gregorius way since he landed with the Yankees. But he’s doing so now at heretofore unseen levels: 42.2%, up from 36.2% last year. Gregorius is also swinging and missing more now (11.1%) than he did in 2018 (9.2%).

As a result, there has been a notable and somewhat concerning backslide in the plate discipline department. That’s where Gregorius really thrived in 2018, driving his career year. Last season: 12.1% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate. Thus far in 2019: 13.5% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate.

But let’s slow down. Gregorius was coming back in the middle of the season after his long rehab effort. And he has already shown notable mid-season plate-discipline improvement. Through his first 22 games, Gregorius maintained a .298 on-base percentage. In his next 20? Um, also a .298 OBP. But he’s getting there in a different way. Gregorius went down on strikes 17 times while drawing just three walks in the first period. In the past twenty contests he has seven strikeouts and five free passes. While his BABIP has taken a downturn in period #2, that’s all but assuredly happenstance (not least of which since his slugging percentage is up to .500, suggesting he’s having little trouble putting the barrel on the ball).

In the power department, Gregorius is carrying the same dozen-plus-percent HR/FB rate and steep average launch angle (17.1 degrees, currently) we’ve become accustomed to. Statcast doesn’t love Gregorius’s batted-ball profile any more than it has in recent seasons, but it also still shows that he isn’t exactly getting by on cheap dingers. While he isn’t making consistently loud contact, with an 87.0 mph average exit velo and .294 xwOBA, he can put a charge in a ball. Gregorius’s eight long balls this year have left the yard at an average 101.1 mph velocity and 28.1 degree launch angle.

All things considered, it seems Gregorius is at worst much the same player he was before his uptick last year. Depending upon how one grades his anticipated future glovework, it’s quite possible to believe he’s a solid 3.5 WAR shortstop who is worthy of being installed as an everyday option for the next several seasons. Given his showing at the plate over the past three weeks, it also seems possible that he’ll end the present season looking more like his 2018 self — the best version we’ve yet seen of Didi.

Either way, we already have a pretty good hint as to one element of Gregorius’s market valuation. The Yanks tendered him a contract last winter, ultimately agreeing to a substantial $11.75MM payday, despite knowing in advance that Gregorius would miss a significant amount of time and face some rehab uncertainty. Gregorius won’t challenge Bogaerts (even at the reduced rate he settled for) in terms of annual salary or years, but the Yankees shortstop is in position — especially with a strong finish — to line up a strong three or four-year pact at a relatively hefty AAV.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Turn $5 Into $5000 At DraftKings

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2019 at 2:00am CDT

For just a $5 entry fee, you can take home a $5,000 prize! DraftKings is offering a winner-take-all contest to MLBTR readers, so first place will take home the entire $5,000. The lineup submission deadline is Thursday August 1st at 7:05pm eastern time, and there’s a limit of one entry per person. Enter the contest now!

This is a sponsored post from DraftKings. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.

East Notes: Thor, Lowe, Bundy, Richard

By Anthony Franco | July 14, 2019 at 11:22am CDT

The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.

As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:

Rays infielder Brandon Lowe might not return from the 10-day injured list until the club’s next homestand, which begins Friday against the White Sox, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Lowe, who leads AL rookies with 2.5 fWAR, was placed on the IL July 4 with a right shin contusion, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg. Lowe’s .276/.339/.523 line isn’t quite sustainable so long as he continues to strike out in a third of his plate appearances, but there’s little question getting his bat back in the lineup will be a boon for a team looking to augment its roster in the coming weeks.
While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.

Rockies Expected To Recall Kyle Freeland This Weekend

By Steve Adams | July 11, 2019 at 1:28pm CDT

The Rockies are “expected” to call left-hander Kyle Freeland back up to the Majors to rejoin their rotation on Saturday, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post reports. Colorado optioned the southpaw to Triple-A last month after a prolonged cold spell.

That Freeland’s difficulties reached the point where an optional assignment was deemed necessary was a fairly stunning development. The 26-year-old finished seventh in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2017 and placed fourth in last season’s NL Cy Young race in what looked to be a breakout campaign. And while some might’ve anticipated a bit off regression, given Freeland’s average strikeout rate and good fortune on home runs clearing the fence, a downturn to the extent of this year’s 7.13 ERA and 2.43 HR/9 was utterly unforeseeable.

Freeland, though, is hardly the only Rockies starter who has taken a step back in 2019. Jon Gray and German Marquez have been solid, although even Marquez’s results pale in comparison to his 2018 output. Meanwhile each Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Peter Lambert have all turned in ERAs of 5.32 or worse in their starts this season. Those catastrophic results make the Rockies a logical candidate to pursue rotation help on the trade market over the course of the next three weeks — if they do indeed decide to buy in a push to land an NL Wild Card spot. Colorado is 14.5 games out of the division lead but a much more manageable two and a half games back in the Wild Card race.

Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2019 MLB Trade Deadline

By Jeff Todd | June 17, 2019 at 11:00pm CDT

We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. As the summer trade market develops on a fairly tight timeline, you can expect more regular updates when modifications to the list are warranted. We’re already seeing real action this year; most recently, Edwin Encarnacion was moved to the Yankees. (He had been listed in the #4 spot below in the initial draft of this post.)

The methodology, if you can call it that, is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood.

In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.

With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s the first list, with some additional names and teams to keep an eye on appended at the end (all statistics current as of June 13th):

1. Will Smith, RP, Giants: What really is there to say? A shut-down rental closer who throws from the left side and isn’t all that expensive ($4.225MM) … yeah, that’s going to be a popular trade target. Smith would upgrade every contender’s roster and suit every payroll. Accordingly, the acquisition cost will be high. Want more on Smith? Read this.

2. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants: This version of Bumgarner shares quite a few attributes with the vintage article, but there are some telltale signs of age and wear. He’s posting an 11.6% swinging-strike rate, but is allowing 1.35 home runs per nine. He’s back over 92 mph with his average fastball, but opposing hitters have an 89.7 mph exit velocity and 43.4% hard-hit rate (career-worst figures for MadBum). He’s affordable, but not a bargain at a $12MM annual salary. Bumgarner is a very good and highly likely trade candidate, but probably not a top-shelf rental starter who’ll draw high-end prospect talent.

3. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays: “Controllable starter” alert! Everybody wants those, it seems. The 28-year-old is earning $7.4MM this year with another arb campaign remaining. While the Jays could hold if they fancy a shot at contention next year, or see a path to an extension, it seems like a good opportunity to cash in a pitcher that has had some ups and downs. The inconsistencies and acquisition cost will be of concern, but Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards just explained why just about every team in baseball ought to have some level of interest in the grounder-heavy righty.

4. Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays: Did you miss on Encarnacion? Well, perhaps a cheaper, somewhat younger, switch-hitting piece whose more capable of playing first base would be a better fit. Smoak now stands out as the top rental bat, as he’s turning in a third-straight productive season at the plate at an affordable $8MM salary.

5. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres: The Friars are putting out word they’d need to be overwhelmed to deal Yates, who is the organization’s latest ultra-successful salvage reliever. But the fact that the club is interested in fielding offers at all represents an indication of a potential willingness to deal on a player who comes with another season of arb control. Yates has arguably been the best reliever in baseball this year and he’s earning peanuts. There ought to be some competition once Ken Giles of the Blue Jays is back from the IL, but for now Yates appears to be the top potential relief target.

6-7. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP: It’s hard to imagine that these southpaws won’t change uniforms this summer. Watson has flaunted his exceptional command by leading the league with a ridiculous 42.9% chase rate and walking less than a batter per nine. He’s easily worth his own healthy $6.5MM payday. The deal also includes some not-insignificant incentive pay based upon appearances, along with a player option that provides Watson with injury/performance protection, so that’ll factor in to the trade return. Diekman has by some measures been better than ever. The 32-year-old is humming along at a 17.3% swinging-strike rate. He’s dishing out a typically hefty volume of walks, but is showing some added promise in that regard by throwing first strikes at a career-best 61.9% clip. Diekman is amply affordable, too. He’s promised just $2.25MM this year, with a $500K payout for a 2020 mutual option.

8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers: Though his age advantage isn’t quite as relevant in a rental scenario, the 27-year-old does offer some benefits over the hitters noted above. He has reeled off a string of quality seasons at the plate and is an increasingly palatable outfield defender, thus increasing his potential roster matches. The $9.95MM salary shouldn’t be much of a barrier. Castellanos has also boosted his output since a tepid start, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him climb this board in the weeks to come.

9-10. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers; Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals: If we were ranking possibly available players by trade value alone, these two would take the top spots. Boyd is turning in a breakout effort in his Super Two season, leaving three years of highly valuable control remaining. Merrifield has only further established himself as a quiet star who’d fit on every roster in baseball. He’s also now inked to a contract that made sense for him but also unlocked yet more value for the K.C. organization. Just how willing these organizations are to deal these players remains to be seen, but both are sure to draw widespread interest and significant offers.

11-12. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP: Good setup men are always in demand, so these experienced high-leverage hurlers will hold appeal. Neither has to be dealt, with a season of arb control remaining, but the time feels right for a move in both cases. Neither is a dominant strikeout pitcher, but both feature quality K/BB numbers and good groundball rates. Dyson is earning his $5MM salary with 32 frames of 2.53 ERA pitching that’s fully supported by his peripherals (8.4 K/9 vs. 1.4 BB/9, 59.3% groundball rate). Greene isn’t going to keep up an absurd 0.96 ERA, but he is certainly throwing the ball well (9.3 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9, 51.4% groundball rate). He’s a nice piece at a $4MM salary with another arb year to go.

13-14. Tanner Roark (Reds) & Jordan Lyles (Pirates), SP: We’re not going to bury these NL Central competitors just yet, as they are still within striking distance and won’t want to sell if they don’t have to. But both face uphill battles and it’ll be awfully tempting to cash in on some veterans, particularly those on expiring contracts. Roark has exceeded expectations in Cincinnati and could be a nice piece this summer if the division is truly out of reach. Ditto Lyles, who is currently on a brief injured list respite but is already penciled in for a return start later this week. Roark is earning a hefty but fair $10MM salary, while Lyles is promised just $2.05MM on the year.

15. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants: We already took a look recently at the Panda, who’s available for sale or rent. TL;DR: If you’re a team of means by no means, he just might make you king of the road. (Sandoval has a 142 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, thus supporting my over-played cultural reference. Here’s a split of greater real-world relevance: the switch-hitter has been much better against right-handed pitching.)

16-17. Alex Colome (White Sox) & Mychal Givens (Orioles), RP: Though he’s carrying a 2.30 ERA, Colome is unlikely to maintain a .113 BABIP-against. With anticipated regression mixed in, the 30-year-old looks like much the same pitcher he has always been. It’s nice that he has been doing a solid job in the closer’s role for the White Sox, but that’s not going to sway many GMs in this day and age. He’s eligible for arbitration in 2020 but is already earning a hefty $7,325,000 salary. With the White Sox hoping to stay in the race this year and increase their competitiveness next season, there are some scenarios where Colome ends up staying in Chicago. You could say the same of Givens. While the O’s lack any reason for holding onto him for his immediate MLB value, he could be held in hopes of a bounceback. Givens is earning only $2.15MM this year and is controllable for two more seasons. You might wonder whether he’s even really marketable at this point. I’d argue he is. Though he has been shredded by home runs, along with the rest of the Orioles staff, Givens is sitting at a customary 95+ mph with his heater and is getting swings and misses at a career-best 14.9% rate. Plenty of teams around the game would love to get ahold of Givens and his powerful right arm.

18-19. Corey Dickerson & Melky Cabrera OF, Pirates: The Bucs are in much the same position as the Reds. We’re in no rush to say they can’t make a run. But the word is that the Pirates are interested in moving Dickerson even as they field offers on Cabrera. That’s a bit odd in some respects, given that the former is younger, is a more capable fielder, and has a better recent overall recent past at the plate. But the Pirates may prefer Cabrera from a value perspective, while some other teams may rather have Dickerson even though he costs more. Regardless, roster pressures are pushing a move of some kind here even if the Pittsburgh org tries to remain competitive past the trade deadline.

20. Andrew Cashner, SP, Orioles: Did I say starting pitcher? In that role, Cashner has been a marginal performer. And he’s earning $8MM with some incentives available for more. (Cashner almost certainly won’t throw enough innings for his 2020 option to vest.) It’s tough to imagine a contender viewing him as a big rotation upgrade after 70 1/3 innings of 4.73 ERA ball on the heels of a poor 2018 showing, but he could function as a fill-in piece down the stretch. Much more intriguing is the possibility of moving Cashner into a flexible relief capacity, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has argued. Cashner is sitting at 94 with his four-seamer and his change has become a weapon; perhaps he’ll finally find his calling in a new-age role. The O’s will probably have to eat money and won’t be able to hold out for a huge return, but there ought to be some interest in a market that could end up being rather weak in rental pitching.

21-22. Dee Gordon (2B) & Mike Leake (SP), Mariners: Gordon is doing enough at the plate for his speed to play. His defensive metrics have faded but perhaps scouts still believe in the glovework. Leake is also still a useful player, tallying a 4.14 ERA over 95 2/3 innings despite allowing 2.07 homers per nine. Both are quite expensive, but the M’s have already proven capable of sorting out the financials in deals involving Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Leake’s no-trade rights will play a role in his market situation.

23-24. Danny Duffy (Royals) & Jeff Samardzija (Giants), SP: Duffy is owed $15MM and change for this year and the two that follow; Shark is earning $18MM this season and next. Neither has been especially impressive this year, and both have shown velocity declines, but they’re each functioning as capable starters who could be useful pieces this year and into the future. Their respective clubs will need to eat money and temper expectations on the prospect side if they’re to make deals.

25-26. Trey Mancini (Orioles) & Hunter Renfroe (Padres), OF: The Baltimore org is “open to anything” when it comes to its best player, while the San Diego outfit is willing to consider scenarios involving its own corner outfield slugger, who has drawn interest. Both of these players are going into arbitration this fall, the latter as a Super Two, so there’s no real rush from that perspective. For the O’s, it’ll be tempting to cash in one of the org’s few desirable deadline pieces. For the Friars, there’s an outfield logjam that will ultimately have to be cleared in some manner.

27-30. Craig Stammen (Padres), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), David Hernandez & Jared Hughes (Reds): Here we have a group of affordable, grey-haired vets who have generally been on nice late-career kicks. These guys will all be surefire trade candidates — if their teams decide to fold up shop. There’s still some uncertainty there, but it seems quite likely that several (if not all) of these hurlers will swap uniforms this summer.

31. Mike Minor, SP, Rangers: The window for a Minor deal is getting smaller even as his value increases. It’ll be hard for the Texas club to move him so long as it has a plausible shot at a Wild Card berth, particularly with a new ballpark on the horizon. Minor could instead be targeted for an extension, either over the summer or in the offseason to come. Trade offers may prove tempting, making for some tough tradeoffs for the Rangers front office to weigh.

32. Freddy Galvis, SS, Blue Jays: The switch-hitting shortstop is taking down $4MM this year with a $1MM buyout for 2020. Galvis has fallen way off his hot early pace and presently carries a .254/.293/.425 slash. He does feature a capable glove and has been known to run into a pitch (ten home runs in 266 plate appearances this season). It’s not a terribly exciting profile, but it’s also quite easy to imagine Galvis filling a useful role for the right contender. He ranks above the next group of names because he’s likelier to be moved as a pure rental on a no-doubt seller.

33-35. Derek Dietrich (Reds), Tim Beckham (Mariners) & Jonathan Villar (Orioles), INF: This year’s market does have some interesting infield pieces. Why go for a boring, glove-only piece when you can add some potential fireworks? All three of these players come with one additional season of arbitration control, effectively delivering floating-value, zero-buyout options to an acquiring team. Dietrich has been electric at the plate and can play multiple positions. While he’s not known as a strong defender, the metrics have graded him as average at second base thus far in 2019. He’s earning only $2MM this year. While Cincy second baseman Scooter Gennett is nearing a return, he’s also slated for free agency at season’s end. The other two orgs are in more obvious seller stances, but also have reasons to want to hang onto these players. Beckham is a questionable defender at short, but he’s earning only $1.75MM and has real power along with a propensity for hot streaks. He could well fit the M’s roster in 2020. Villar would seem the likeliest to be cashed in, though the O’s will want to maintain some standards at the MLB level. He’s a well-regarded and versatile defender who has some home run pop of his own along with excellent speed. Villar is owed $4.825MM for the season.

36-37. Ian Kennedy (Royals) & Mark Melancon (Giants), RP: These two righties are vastly overpayed for their present ability levels, but that won’t preclude swaps. The former has found new life as a reliever; while he carries only a 3.86 ERA through 28 innings, he’s working at a highly promising combination of 11.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. It’s the opposite case for Melancon, whose useful 3.49 ERA in 28 1/3 frames is not quite supported by the peripherals. He is sporting a 61.0% groundball rate but has seen his typically stingy walk rate jump to 3.8 per nine and he’s only managing 7.6 K/9 as his chase rate continues to plummet.

38-39. Felipe Vazquez (Pirates) & Raisel Iglesias (Reds), RP: It’ll take a concerted effort to pry one of these arms free. That hasn’t happened in the past, though these two NL Central relievers often end up on these lists. These clubs may well fall out of the race by the time July draws to a close, but they’ll still be hoping for near-term contention thereafter. Vazquez and Iglesias are each pitching on cost-efficient contracts. The former is especially valuable, as he’s among the game’s best lefty relief arms and is cheaply controlled through 2023. The latter hasn’t been quite as dominant and his deal isn’t as appealing (it runs through 2021), but those factors perhaps also make him a more achievable target for contenders.

40-41. Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants & Wil Myers, OF, Padres: In theory, each of these players can appear at the position stated for the other. But they’re most likely to be considered at the spots listed. Both have hefty contracts that aren’t likely to be picked up in full. In the case of Belt, concussion worries create long-term risk. As for Myers, he just hasn’t performed to the levels he’s being paid. But it’s not hard to imagine both players being of interest. Belt is back to being an under-appreciated hitter, with a .248/.372/.461 slash and nine home runs over 250 plate appearances. Though Myers is humming along at a league-average clip with the bat, he has historically performed at about ten percent above league average at the plate, offers real defensive versatility, and can add value with his legs on the bases.

42-43. Kevin Pillar (Giants) & Billy Hamilton (Royals), OF: These are specialized, glove-and-run pieces who’d only make sense for certain clubs. But there’s often a need for such players. Pillar and Hamilton haven’t proven capable of commanding regular time but could be handy reserve pieces.

44. Adam Duvall, OF, Braves: After a brutal late-season run last year, Duvall was somewhat surprisingly tendered by the Braves. He hasn’t been needed in the majors despite raking at Triple-A. With a $2,875,000 salary, he’s an expensive back-up plan. It’ll be tempting to shed the remaining obligation and trade in his remaining two years of team control to help pay for other desired upgrades. Duvall could hold appeal to some contenders, particularly those that want their purchase to come with future value, or be sent to a rebuilding outfit.

45-46. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox & Alex Gordon, OF, Royals: Why aren’t they higher?! How can you even put them on this list?! There are two sides to this coin. Both of these pending free agents would be of real interest to contenders, as they’re highly respected veterans that are performing well in 2019. Large salary obligations are but a point of negotiation. Thing is, the Sox have continued to indicate that they see an ongoing connection with Abreu. And the situation is similar for Gordon and the Royals, with the added complication that he has no-trade rights and a disinclination to move. That said, things can always change, so they command a spot on the list for the time being.

47-48. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets & Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: These NL East rivals seem less likely to pack it in on July 31st than some of the other sub-.500 teams whose players feature above. After entering the season with big payrolls and bigger expectations, it’d be awfully tough to admit defeat unless the odds are truly insurmountable. That said, Wheeler and Rendon would arguably be the top pure rental players available if they hit the market, so they claim back-of-the-list spots. These clubs each have other conceivable rental pieces as well as more controllable stars. It seems premature to begin batting around concepts involving players such as Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer.

49-50. Trevor Bauer (SP) & Brad Hand (RP), Indians: It has been said that the Indians are “poised” to listen on these two excellent hurlers, but what does that really mean at this stage of the season? The Cleveland club may have miscalculated on the division-leading Twins, but it also sits at 4 games over .500 after weathering some major injuries and surprising performance issues. It’ll be a tall order to run down their rivals from Minnesota, but it’s not out of the question. And a Wild Card berth remains amply plausible. While it will prove tempting to consider some repositioning moves to bring in more affordable/controllable assets, that’s awfully hard to do when you’re a strong postseason contender.

Injured List

Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Mitch Haniger (Mariners), Jose Urena, Neil Walker, Martin Prado & Caleb Smith (Marlins), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Tyson Ross & Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Wood & Scooter Gennett (Reds)