By Tim Dierkes | at
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By Anthony Franco | at
The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.
As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:
By Steve Adams | at
The Rockies are “expected” to call left-hander Kyle Freeland back up to the Majors to rejoin their rotation on Saturday, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post reports. Colorado optioned the southpaw to Triple-A last month after a prolonged cold spell.
That Freeland’s difficulties reached the point where an optional assignment was deemed necessary was a fairly stunning development. The 26-year-old finished seventh in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2017 and placed fourth in last season’s NL Cy Young race in what looked to be a breakout campaign. And while some might’ve anticipated a bit off regression, given Freeland’s average strikeout rate and good fortune on home runs clearing the fence, a downturn to the extent of this year’s 7.13 ERA and 2.43 HR/9 was utterly unforeseeable.
Freeland, though, is hardly the only Rockies starter who has taken a step back in 2019. Jon Gray and German Marquez have been solid, although even Marquez’s results pale in comparison to his 2018 output. Meanwhile each Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Peter Lambert have all turned in ERAs of 5.32 or worse in their starts this season. Those catastrophic results make the Rockies a logical candidate to pursue rotation help on the trade market over the course of the next three weeks — if they do indeed decide to buy in a push to land an NL Wild Card spot. Colorado is 14.5 games out of the division lead but a much more manageable two and a half games back in the Wild Card race.
By Jeff Todd | at
We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. As the summer trade market develops on a fairly tight timeline, you can expect more regular updates when modifications to the list are warranted. We’re already seeing real action this year; most recently, Edwin Encarnacion was moved to the Yankees. (He had been listed in the #4 spot below in the initial draft of this post.)
The methodology, if you can call it that, is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood.
In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.
With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s the first list, with some additional names and teams to keep an eye on appended at the end (all statistics current as of June 13th):
1. Will Smith, RP, Giants: What really is there to say? A shut-down rental closer who throws from the left side and isn’t all that expensive ($4.225MM) … yeah, that’s going to be a popular trade target. Smith would upgrade every contender’s roster and suit every payroll. Accordingly, the acquisition cost will be high. Want more on Smith? Read this.
2. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants: This version of Bumgarner shares quite a few attributes with the vintage article, but there are some telltale signs of age and wear. He’s posting an 11.6% swinging-strike rate, but is allowing 1.35 home runs per nine. He’s back over 92 mph with his average fastball, but opposing hitters have an 89.7 mph exit velocity and 43.4% hard-hit rate (career-worst figures for MadBum). He’s affordable, but not a bargain at a $12MM annual salary. Bumgarner is a very good and highly likely trade candidate, but probably not a top-shelf rental starter who’ll draw high-end prospect talent.
3. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays: “Controllable starter” alert! Everybody wants those, it seems. The 28-year-old is earning $7.4MM this year with another arb campaign remaining. While the Jays could hold if they fancy a shot at contention next year, or see a path to an extension, it seems like a good opportunity to cash in a pitcher that has had some ups and downs. The inconsistencies and acquisition cost will be of concern, but Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards just explained why just about every team in baseball ought to have some level of interest in the grounder-heavy righty.
4. Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays: Did you miss on Encarnacion? Well, perhaps a cheaper, somewhat younger, switch-hitting piece whose more capable of playing first base would be a better fit. Smoak now stands out as the top rental bat, as he’s turning in a third-straight productive season at the plate at an affordable $8MM salary.
5. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres: The Friars are putting out word they’d need to be overwhelmed to deal Yates, who is the organization’s latest ultra-successful salvage reliever. But the fact that the club is interested in fielding offers at all represents an indication of a potential willingness to deal on a player who comes with another season of arb control. Yates has arguably been the best reliever in baseball this year and he’s earning peanuts. There ought to be some competition once Ken Giles of the Blue Jays is back from the IL, but for now Yates appears to be the top potential relief target.
6-7. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP: It’s hard to imagine that these southpaws won’t change uniforms this summer. Watson has flaunted his exceptional command by leading the league with a ridiculous 42.9% chase rate and walking less than a batter per nine. He’s easily worth his own healthy $6.5MM payday. The deal also includes some not-insignificant incentive pay based upon appearances, along with a player option that provides Watson with injury/performance protection, so that’ll factor in to the trade return. Diekman has by some measures been better than ever. The 32-year-old is humming along at a 17.3% swinging-strike rate. He’s dishing out a typically hefty volume of walks, but is showing some added promise in that regard by throwing first strikes at a career-best 61.9% clip. Diekman is amply affordable, too. He’s promised just $2.25MM this year, with a $500K payout for a 2020 mutual option.
8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers: Though his age advantage isn’t quite as relevant in a rental scenario, the 27-year-old does offer some benefits over the hitters noted above. He has reeled off a string of quality seasons at the plate and is an increasingly palatable outfield defender, thus increasing his potential roster matches. The $9.95MM salary shouldn’t be much of a barrier. Castellanos has also boosted his output since a tepid start, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him climb this board in the weeks to come.
9-10. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers; Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals: If we were ranking possibly available players by trade value alone, these two would take the top spots. Boyd is turning in a breakout effort in his Super Two season, leaving three years of highly valuable control remaining. Merrifield has only further established himself as a quiet star who’d fit on every roster in baseball. He’s also now inked to a contract that made sense for him but also unlocked yet more value for the K.C. organization. Just how willing these organizations are to deal these players remains to be seen, but both are sure to draw widespread interest and significant offers.
11-12. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP: Good setup men are always in demand, so these experienced high-leverage hurlers will hold appeal. Neither has to be dealt, with a season of arb control remaining, but the time feels right for a move in both cases. Neither is a dominant strikeout pitcher, but both feature quality K/BB numbers and good groundball rates. Dyson is earning his $5MM salary with 32 frames of 2.53 ERA pitching that’s fully supported by his peripherals (8.4 K/9 vs. 1.4 BB/9, 59.3% groundball rate). Greene isn’t going to keep up an absurd 0.96 ERA, but he is certainly throwing the ball well (9.3 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9, 51.4% groundball rate). He’s a nice piece at a $4MM salary with another arb year to go.
13-14. Tanner Roark (Reds) & Jordan Lyles (Pirates), SP: We’re not going to bury these NL Central competitors just yet, as they are still within striking distance and won’t want to sell if they don’t have to. But both face uphill battles and it’ll be awfully tempting to cash in on some veterans, particularly those on expiring contracts. Roark has exceeded expectations in Cincinnati and could be a nice piece this summer if the division is truly out of reach. Ditto Lyles, who is currently on a brief injured list respite but is already penciled in for a return start later this week. Roark is earning a hefty but fair $10MM salary, while Lyles is promised just $2.05MM on the year.
15. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants: We already took a look recently at the Panda, who’s available for sale or rent. TL;DR: If you’re a team of means by no means, he just might make you king of the road. (Sandoval has a 142 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, thus supporting my over-played cultural reference. Here’s a split of greater real-world relevance: the switch-hitter has been much better against right-handed pitching.)
16-17. Alex Colome (White Sox) & Mychal Givens (Orioles), RP: Though he’s carrying a 2.30 ERA, Colome is unlikely to maintain a .113 BABIP-against. With anticipated regression mixed in, the 30-year-old looks like much the same pitcher he has always been. It’s nice that he has been doing a solid job in the closer’s role for the White Sox, but that’s not going to sway many GMs in this day and age. He’s eligible for arbitration in 2020 but is already earning a hefty $7,325,000 salary. With the White Sox hoping to stay in the race this year and increase their competitiveness next season, there are some scenarios where Colome ends up staying in Chicago. You could say the same of Givens. While the O’s lack any reason for holding onto him for his immediate MLB value, he could be held in hopes of a bounceback. Givens is earning only $2.15MM this year and is controllable for two more seasons. You might wonder whether he’s even really marketable at this point. I’d argue he is. Though he has been shredded by home runs, along with the rest of the Orioles staff, Givens is sitting at a customary 95+ mph with his heater and is getting swings and misses at a career-best 14.9% rate. Plenty of teams around the game would love to get ahold of Givens and his powerful right arm.
18-19. Corey Dickerson & Melky Cabrera OF, Pirates: The Bucs are in much the same position as the Reds. We’re in no rush to say they can’t make a run. But the word is that the Pirates are interested in moving Dickerson even as they field offers on Cabrera. That’s a bit odd in some respects, given that the former is younger, is a more capable fielder, and has a better recent overall recent past at the plate. But the Pirates may prefer Cabrera from a value perspective, while some other teams may rather have Dickerson even though he costs more. Regardless, roster pressures are pushing a move of some kind here even if the Pittsburgh org tries to remain competitive past the trade deadline.
20. Andrew Cashner, SP, Orioles: Did I say starting pitcher? In that role, Cashner has been a marginal performer. And he’s earning $8MM with some incentives available for more. (Cashner almost certainly won’t throw enough innings for his 2020 option to vest.) It’s tough to imagine a contender viewing him as a big rotation upgrade after 70 1/3 innings of 4.73 ERA ball on the heels of a poor 2018 showing, but he could function as a fill-in piece down the stretch. Much more intriguing is the possibility of moving Cashner into a flexible relief capacity, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has argued. Cashner is sitting at 94 with his four-seamer and his change has become a weapon; perhaps he’ll finally find his calling in a new-age role. The O’s will probably have to eat money and won’t be able to hold out for a huge return, but there ought to be some interest in a market that could end up being rather weak in rental pitching.
21-22. Dee Gordon (2B) & Mike Leake (SP), Mariners: Gordon is doing enough at the plate for his speed to play. His defensive metrics have faded but perhaps scouts still believe in the glovework. Leake is also still a useful player, tallying a 4.14 ERA over 95 2/3 innings despite allowing 2.07 homers per nine. Both are quite expensive, but the M’s have already proven capable of sorting out the financials in deals involving Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Leake’s no-trade rights will play a role in his market situation.
23-24. Danny Duffy (Royals) & Jeff Samardzija (Giants), SP: Duffy is owed $15MM and change for this year and the two that follow; Shark is earning $18MM this season and next. Neither has been especially impressive this year, and both have shown velocity declines, but they’re each functioning as capable starters who could be useful pieces this year and into the future. Their respective clubs will need to eat money and temper expectations on the prospect side if they’re to make deals.
25-26. Trey Mancini (Orioles) & Hunter Renfroe (Padres), OF: The Baltimore org is “open to anything” when it comes to its best player, while the San Diego outfit is willing to consider scenarios involving its own corner outfield slugger, who has drawn interest. Both of these players are going into arbitration this fall, the latter as a Super Two, so there’s no real rush from that perspective. For the O’s, it’ll be tempting to cash in one of the org’s few desirable deadline pieces. For the Friars, there’s an outfield logjam that will ultimately have to be cleared in some manner.
27-30. Craig Stammen (Padres), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), David Hernandez & Jared Hughes (Reds): Here we have a group of affordable, grey-haired vets who have generally been on nice late-career kicks. These guys will all be surefire trade candidates — if their teams decide to fold up shop. There’s still some uncertainty there, but it seems quite likely that several (if not all) of these hurlers will swap uniforms this summer.
31. Mike Minor, SP, Rangers: The window for a Minor deal is getting smaller even as his value increases. It’ll be hard for the Texas club to move him so long as it has a plausible shot at a Wild Card berth, particularly with a new ballpark on the horizon. Minor could instead be targeted for an extension, either over the summer or in the offseason to come. Trade offers may prove tempting, making for some tough tradeoffs for the Rangers front office to weigh.
32. Freddy Galvis, SS, Blue Jays: The switch-hitting shortstop is taking down $4MM this year with a $1MM buyout for 2020. Galvis has fallen way off his hot early pace and presently carries a .254/.293/.425 slash. He does feature a capable glove and has been known to run into a pitch (ten home runs in 266 plate appearances this season). It’s not a terribly exciting profile, but it’s also quite easy to imagine Galvis filling a useful role for the right contender. He ranks above the next group of names because he’s likelier to be moved as a pure rental on a no-doubt seller.
33-35. Derek Dietrich (Reds), Tim Beckham (Mariners) & Jonathan Villar (Orioles), INF: This year’s market does have some interesting infield pieces. Why go for a boring, glove-only piece when you can add some potential fireworks? All three of these players come with one additional season of arbitration control, effectively delivering floating-value, zero-buyout options to an acquiring team. Dietrich has been electric at the plate and can play multiple positions. While he’s not known as a strong defender, the metrics have graded him as average at second base thus far in 2019. He’s earning only $2MM this year. While Cincy second baseman Scooter Gennett is nearing a return, he’s also slated for free agency at season’s end. The other two orgs are in more obvious seller stances, but also have reasons to want to hang onto these players. Beckham is a questionable defender at short, but he’s earning only $1.75MM and has real power along with a propensity for hot streaks. He could well fit the M’s roster in 2020. Villar would seem the likeliest to be cashed in, though the O’s will want to maintain some standards at the MLB level. He’s a well-regarded and versatile defender who has some home run pop of his own along with excellent speed. Villar is owed $4.825MM for the season.
36-37. Ian Kennedy (Royals) & Mark Melancon (Giants), RP: These two righties are vastly overpayed for their present ability levels, but that won’t preclude swaps. The former has found new life as a reliever; while he carries only a 3.86 ERA through 28 innings, he’s working at a highly promising combination of 11.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. It’s the opposite case for Melancon, whose useful 3.49 ERA in 28 1/3 frames is not quite supported by the peripherals. He is sporting a 61.0% groundball rate but has seen his typically stingy walk rate jump to 3.8 per nine and he’s only managing 7.6 K/9 as his chase rate continues to plummet.
38-39. Felipe Vazquez (Pirates) & Raisel Iglesias (Reds), RP: It’ll take a concerted effort to pry one of these arms free. That hasn’t happened in the past, though these two NL Central relievers often end up on these lists. These clubs may well fall out of the race by the time July draws to a close, but they’ll still be hoping for near-term contention thereafter. Vazquez and Iglesias are each pitching on cost-efficient contracts. The former is especially valuable, as he’s among the game’s best lefty relief arms and is cheaply controlled through 2023. The latter hasn’t been quite as dominant and his deal isn’t as appealing (it runs through 2021), but those factors perhaps also make him a more achievable target for contenders.
40-41. Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants & Wil Myers, OF, Padres: In theory, each of these players can appear at the position stated for the other. But they’re most likely to be considered at the spots listed. Both have hefty contracts that aren’t likely to be picked up in full. In the case of Belt, concussion worries create long-term risk. As for Myers, he just hasn’t performed to the levels he’s being paid. But it’s not hard to imagine both players being of interest. Belt is back to being an under-appreciated hitter, with a .248/.372/.461 slash and nine home runs over 250 plate appearances. Though Myers is humming along at a league-average clip with the bat, he has historically performed at about ten percent above league average at the plate, offers real defensive versatility, and can add value with his legs on the bases.
42-43. Kevin Pillar (Giants) & Billy Hamilton (Royals), OF: These are specialized, glove-and-run pieces who’d only make sense for certain clubs. But there’s often a need for such players. Pillar and Hamilton haven’t proven capable of commanding regular time but could be handy reserve pieces.
44. Adam Duvall, OF, Braves: After a brutal late-season run last year, Duvall was somewhat surprisingly tendered by the Braves. He hasn’t been needed in the majors despite raking at Triple-A. With a $2,875,000 salary, he’s an expensive back-up plan. It’ll be tempting to shed the remaining obligation and trade in his remaining two years of team control to help pay for other desired upgrades. Duvall could hold appeal to some contenders, particularly those that want their purchase to come with future value, or be sent to a rebuilding outfit.
45-46. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox & Alex Gordon, OF, Royals: Why aren’t they higher?! How can you even put them on this list?! There are two sides to this coin. Both of these pending free agents would be of real interest to contenders, as they’re highly respected veterans that are performing well in 2019. Large salary obligations are but a point of negotiation. Thing is, the Sox have continued to indicate that they see an ongoing connection with Abreu. And the situation is similar for Gordon and the Royals, with the added complication that he has no-trade rights and a disinclination to move. That said, things can always change, so they command a spot on the list for the time being.
47-48. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets & Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: These NL East rivals seem less likely to pack it in on July 31st than some of the other sub-.500 teams whose players feature above. After entering the season with big payrolls and bigger expectations, it’d be awfully tough to admit defeat unless the odds are truly insurmountable. That said, Wheeler and Rendon would arguably be the top pure rental players available if they hit the market, so they claim back-of-the-list spots. These clubs each have other conceivable rental pieces as well as more controllable stars. It seems premature to begin batting around concepts involving players such as Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer.
49-50. Trevor Bauer (SP) & Brad Hand (RP), Indians: It has been said that the Indians are “poised” to listen on these two excellent hurlers, but what does that really mean at this stage of the season? The Cleveland club may have miscalculated on the division-leading Twins, but it also sits at 4 games over .500 after weathering some major injuries and surprising performance issues. It’ll be a tall order to run down their rivals from Minnesota, but it’s not out of the question. And a Wild Card berth remains amply plausible. While it will prove tempting to consider some repositioning moves to bring in more affordable/controllable assets, that’s awfully hard to do when you’re a strong postseason contender.
Injured List
Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Mitch Haniger (Mariners), Jose Urena, Neil Walker, Martin Prado & Caleb Smith (Marlins), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Tyson Ross & Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Wood & Scooter Gennett (Reds)
Watch List
Blue Jays: Daniel Hudson, Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, David Phelps, Eric Sogard
Orioles: Shawn Armstrong, Dylan Bundy
Tigers: Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones, Gordon Beckham
Royals: Brad Boxberger, Wily Peralta, Lucas Duda, Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Scott Barlow, Jakob Junis, Terrance Gore, Martin Maldonado
Mariners: Domingo Santana, Roenis Elias, Cory Gearrin, Wade LeBlanc
Marlins: Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Sergio Romo, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen
Giants: Reyes Moronta, Joe Panik, Stephen Vogt, Drew Pomeranz, Derek Holland, Trevor Gott
White Sox: Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo, Ivan Nova, Evan Marshall, James McCann
Padres: Manuel Margot, Robbie Erlin
Pirates: Kyle Crick, Steven Brault, Chris Archer, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte
Nationals: Max Scherzer, Sean Doolittle, Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes, Matt Adams
Mets: Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jason Vargas
Angels: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Jonathan Lucroy
Reds: Yasiel Puig, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Zach Duke, Jose Iglesias
Cubs: Ian Happ
Yankees: Clint Frazier
By Tim Dierkes | at
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By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | at
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East. So far, so good. But the club is looking ahead at some rather significant road blocks.
Most notably, the Philadelphia outfield mix just took a big hit. Andrew McCutchen is done for the year. The less-hyped and less-expensive of the team’s two major free agent splashes, Cutch had also outperformed Bryce Harper to this point.
Let’s not forget: the Phillies aren’t just replacing McCutchen. They may also be in need of a player to step in for Odubel Herrera, whose future with the organization is in doubt after his recent arrest for alleged domestic violence. Aaron Altherr was already sent out after a rough start. Nick Williams has struggled mightily. Roman Quinn is again injured, while Dylan Cozens is sidelined for the season. Scott Kingery is showing well, but he’s an infielder by trade and is needed there with Maikel Franco struggling. Recently, Kingery taken over the majority of the workload at third base.
The Phillies, as one would expect from a first-place club in a tightly contested division, have acted quickly since losing Herrera and McCutchen. Jay Bruce was brought in and now figures to line in left field on a regular basis. Bruce just ripped his third home run in as many games since landing in Philadelphia, so he’s off to a good start. But he’ll also likely be pressed into a much more substantial role than had been envisioned.
Philadelphia also promoted prospect Adam Haseley, the eighth overall pick in 2017, and he’ll step into center field for the time being. Haseley had only been in Triple-A for a week when he was summoned to the Majors, though, and he’s not regarded as a premium prospect despite that draft pedigree. He’s a a logical first option, and perhaps he’ll surprise to the extent that the Phils don’t need to make a splashy trade, but there’s still a definite chance that the sudden outfield deficiency will be addressed by acquiring someone from outside the organization.
What the Phillies could really use in place of McCutchen is a true center fielder. McCutchen hasn’t been that in several years but was playing there in place of Herrera — who turned in shaky defensive ratings in center himself in 2018-19. Unfortunately, that’ll be considerably more difficult to come by for GM Matt Klentak.
The most readily available players are of dubious quality, unsurprisingly. Kevin Pillar could surely be had from the Giants, but a player sporting a .249 OBP on the season isn’t going to be viewed as an upgrade. It’s a similar story with Billy Hamilton in Kansas City and Juan Lagares in New York. The Padres have a well-known glut of outfielders, most of who are limited to corner duties as well. Perhaps the Phillies could try to buy low on one-time top prospect Manuel Margot, but he’s sporting a .262 OBP and has lost playing time to makeshift center fielder Wil Myers. Myers himself would figure to be eminently available, but he’s still owed $61MM beyond the 2019 campaign and wouldn’t be a quality defensive option. Buy-low options abound throughout the league. Beyond the aforementioned Pillar, the Phillies could acquire Leonys Martin on the cheap in hope of a return to form. The Orioles only just acquired Keon Broxton themselves, but the Phils could try to take a shot on him.
The best of this class of player may be Jarrod Dyson. Perhaps the D-Backs will be willing to ship him elsewhere later this summer. He’s a career-long platoon bat with minimal power but would at least give the Phils dynamic glovework and competitive at-bats against right-handed pitching. But the team would still arguably be down a righty outfield bat.
Adding a higher-end piece in center would surely be costly, though it’s worth exploring since it’s a long-term need for the organization. The Phils could try to pry Ketel Marte away from Arizona, but the asking price would be substantial. The versatile switch-hitter has taken well to center field and is also capable of playing all over the infield; he’s also controllable all the way through 2024 for a total of about $35MM. Starling Marte isn’t off to his finest start, but the cross-state rival Pirates likely won’t reduce their asking price. Perhaps there’s some room for a deal — the Pittsburgh org may soon have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and may not hang in the divisional race, while Marte is getting more expensive — but it’s a low-likelihood scenario.
It is intriguing to think of potential matches with the Mariners. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto rarely rests long between brokering deals and obviously has a connection with Klentak. (Not long before the Bruce swap, they pulled off a much more significant deal.) The Mariners resisted the temptation to move building-block Mitch Haniger in the offseason. He’s mostly a corner piece and hasn’t graded well in limited MLB action up the middle, but did spend a lot of time there in the minors and might be expected to perform well enough in that role for a season or two. Mallex Smith would be a true center field option, but he’s still trying to bounce back from a rough start. The Mariners acquired him as a hopeful long-term piece in an offseason swap and won’t be particularly keen to sell low.
One potentially interesting possibility would involve Whit Merrifield of the Royals. He’s known mostly as a second baseman, of course, but has been utilized more and more on the grass and has graded well in his limited time in center. If the Royals really are willing to listen, the Phillies ought to in the ear of K.C. GM Dayton Moore. Merrifield could plug into the center field opening now and be utilized in any number of different ways in the future. He’s an exceptional value, which will be reflected in the asking price.
The options could still expand in the coming months, though it’s honestly tough to foresee other viable center field targets. What are the other possibilities?
A major corner outfield acquisition just may not make a ton of sense for the Phils, who have Bruce and Harper in that role now and will welcome back McCutchen next season. Skipper Gabe Kapler already said he doesn’t plan to use Harper in center. While the right acquisition could perhaps change that line of thinking, that’s probably not the preferred route for GM Matt Klentak and the remainder of the front office.
That said, perhaps the Phillies can instead add one of the Dyson-type platoon pieces and also pursue a corner-oriented bat to boost their offensive productivity. The team could hold its nose at times on defense — as it was doing already with Cutch in center — and plan on deploying different personnel based upon the situation.
There ought to be quite a few corner pieces on the market. In addition to some of the names already covered, some of the aforementioned teams have other conceivable trade assets. Adam Jones at least has ample experience in center, even if he’s ill-suited to regular time there at this stage. He and David Peralta could be put on the block by the Diamondbacks. Left-handed hitters Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, and Melky Cabrera may not fit on the same Pirates roster. (Polanco could also be utilized in center, as he frequently was in the minors, though he has rarely been tasked with that role in Pittsburgh.) Domingo Santana of the M’s has slowed after a hot start but could be of some interest. Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are among the many options in San Diego.
Loads of other players will also come up. Perhaps the Orioles’ Trey Mancini isn’t a sensible target since he’ll come with a high asking price and is limited to a corner spot. But there are other, more plausible candidates. Nicholas Castellanos is sure to be discussed quite a bit this summer by the Tigers. The Angels may end up dealing Kole Calhoun in his walk year if they can’t hang in contention; likewise, the Reds could end up dangling Yasiel Puig and/or Derek Dietrich. Veteran corner outfielder Alex Gordon could be of interest, though it’s far from clear whether he’ll be available given his no-trade rights and special relationship with the Royals. Shin-Soo Choo of the Rangers would be just the bat the Phils would like, though he’s a poor defender and would be tough to carry alongside Bruce.
There is also one other general route that the Phillies could explore. If they’re willing to trust Kingery with extended action up the middle, perhaps by pairing him with a part-timer of Dyson’s ilk, then the Phils could free the youngster for that role by adding an infielder. Whether or not they fully give up on Franco, the club might seek to add offense at the hot corner. Kingery’s importance to the Philadelphia organization was already apparent before McCutchen’s injury. His flexibility and potentially emerging bat now expand the universe of possibilities as the front office approaches an increasingly interesting summer trade period.
By Connor Byrne | at
Former major league first baseman/outfielder Bill Buckner has passed away after a battle with Lewy Body Dementia, as his wife, Jody, confirmed to Jeremy Schaap of ESPN. Buckner was 69 years old.
Buckner is best known for one play – an error in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series that helped propel the Mets to a title over his Red Sox – but that doesn’t do justice to his career. A second-round pick of the Dodgers in 1968, Buckner debuted a year later and didn’t conclude his career until 1990 with the Red Sox. He also spent time with the Cubs, Royals and Angels, hitting .289/.321/.408 with 174 home runs and 183 stolen bases in upward of 10,000 plate appearances.
In what was likely the crowning personal achievment of his career, Buckner won the NL batting title as a Cub in 1980 with a .324 average. A year later, he earned his lone All-Star nod. Buckner logged a few more productive seasons thereafter, including with the Red Sox, though the way ’86 ended left a bad taste for Boston fans. Eventually, ill feelings between them and Buckner were put aside. Buckner returned to Fenway Park to a roaring ovation in 2008, four years after the Red Sox broke an 86-year championship drought and one season after they took home yet another title, to throw out the first pitch on Opening Day. Buckner later poked fun at himself in a 2011 episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” in which he made a life-saving catch.
Since Buckner’s passing, there has been an outpouring of support from the many who respected him as a person and a baseball player. MLBTR echoes those sentiments.
By Connor Byrne | at
Major League Baseball continues its quest to implement an international draft, per recent reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN and Ben Badler of Baseball America. MLB has discussed the possibility of introducing a draft by 2020 or 2021, according to Badler, with the league having held talks with members of its Trainer Partnership Program – a group of Latin American trainers known as buscones. To this point, though, the league hasn’t engaged in talks with the MLBPA on the subject of a draft. It’s one of several important issues the two sides will have to iron out before the current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2021.
Thus far in MLB’s preliminary discussions on the matter, it has considered a 15-round, 450-selection draft with a hard-slotted system, per Badler, who adds teams would be able trade picks. It appears players who go undrafted would be able to sign for up to $50K, though Badler notes that number could change. Players still wouldn’t be able to sign until the age of 16, but clubs have been known to exploit that – which has been a key part of talks between the league and the buscones.
No fewer than four Latin players from the 2021-22 international signing period agreed to deals with teams when they were just 13, Passan reports. Furthermore, some international players drop out of school when they’re as young as 10 to focus on baseball, and Passan writes that performance-enhancing drug use among these children has been incentivized as they attempt to garner interest from MLB clubs. As a result, there are some influential buscones who are on board with a draft, Passan relays. But others are less enthusiastic about the idea because the financial cap on draft picks would further limit the players’ earnings (and the trainers’ in turn).
Under the current system, an international signing period that begins July 2 and runs into the next June, most teams have somewhere between $4.3MM and just under $6.5MM in their bonus pools. The lone exception is the Braves, who have a penniless pool thanks to violations from their previous front office. Back in 2017, the league issued a permanent ban to ex-general manager John Coppolella and stripped the Braves of 13 international prospects thanks to the misdeeds of him and some of his Atlanta cohorts on the foreign market. However, it’s clear there are still seedy elements at play under the present international setup, and it seems that’s on MLB’s mind as it attempts to shift to a draft.
Considering the frayed relationship between the league’s owners and players, this will be a situation worth watching over the next couple years as the two sides try to avoid a work stoppage. Notably, some Latin players – including Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion – have spoken out against an international draft, which Adrian Burgos of La Vida Baseball covered in 2017.
By Jeff Todd | at
We’ve spent some time looking at one-year MLB deals recently, with separate posts checking in on the highest-paid position players, starters, and relievers. More often than not, the results have been underwhelming for those players. There’s still time for turnarounds, but we’re already one quarter of the way through the full duration of those contracts.
Scan a bit further down the list in terms of dollars promised, however, and you’ll find some more promising outcomes. Indeed, quite a few players earning relative peanuts on one-year MLB contracts are turning in downright excellent results. (Note: we’re talking about deals that were guaranteed at the time of signing, not minor-league contracts.)
Here are the ten most impressive, ordered from most to least expensive:
Avisail Garcia, Rays, $3.5MM: An under-the-radar aspect of the Rays strong opening to the season has been the bargain-basement score of Garcia, who has stung the ball early on. He’s humming along at a .283/.343/.507 clip with eight long balls and three steals through 166 plate appearances. Contact quality will probably always be king for Garcia, who isn’t especially strikeout prone but doesn’t walk much. What’s he doing differently? I’m not exactly sure, but he’s barreling the baseball far more (14.3%) than ever before and is underperforming against Statcast’s expectations (.360 wOBA vs. .385 xwOBA).
Jonathan Lucroy, Angels, $3.35MM: The venerable backstop had fallen on hard times over the past two seasons. It was most noticeable at the plate, where the long-productive hitter fell into a deep hole, but the former pitch-framing posterboy also stopped winning strikes for his pitchers. The bounceback has been a rare bright spot in Anaheim, as Lucroy is slashing .265/.326/.439 and once again earning strong marks for his receiving ability behind the dish.
Adam Jones, Diamondbacks, $3MM: The esteemed veteran was all but frozen out of the free agent market this winter until the D-Backs came along with a decent offer. Jones hasn’t exactly morphed into a star, but he’s providing strong offensive output in an everyday role. Through 202 plate appearances, he’s slashing .265/.323/.476 with nine dingers, which is a rather vintage performance at the dish. That sort of production played better back when Jones was capable of playing center, but it’s good value regardless for a player who’s also a plus in the clubhouse.
James McCann, White Sox, $2.5MM: Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list when you look only at the top-line numbers, the younger of the two catching McCanns has been utterly on fire to open the season. He’s slashing a heretofore unheard of .340/.381/.538 in 113 plate appearances. Yeah, yeah … it’s not full-time action. And the regression warning lights are flashing, with a .421 BABIP and -.061 x/wOBA imbalance. McCann is also not getting the ravest of reviews in the framing arena. Still, at this cost, there’s no cause whatsoever for complaint. Bonus: McCann is arb eligible this fall.
Jordan Lyles, Pirates, $2.05MM: Many Pirates fans rolled their eyes and scoffed at this signing, and not without reason. It’s nice to find great value, but was Lyles really a buy-low candidate or just a cheap fill-in piece for a team that should be spending more? He has been one of the most cost-efficient starters in baseball thus far, providing 45 2/3 frames of sub-2.00 ERA ball in eight starts. His peripherals (9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 43.0% GB%, 0.79 HR/9) don’t scream “ace,” but they do suggest he has been quite strong thus far. There’s good reason to think that Lyles has finally found himself after so many missed opportunities, with the Bucs benefiting.
Brian McCann, Braves, $2MM: The original behind-the-dish McCann hasn’t been flashy but has delivered everything the Braves hoped for when they brought him back to town. He’s producing right at the league average offensively through 92 plate appearances, grinding out tough at-bats by walking nearly as often as he’s striking out. The grizzled veteran is obviously valued as much or more for his ability to work with pitchers and nurture a youthful clubhouse as he is for his on-field contributions. It seems fair to say this is working out quite nicely thus far.
Neil Walker, Marlins, $2MM: If you look back at Walker’s career numbers, his rough 2018 season stands out as an outlier. Typically a steady producer at the plate, Walker looked like much the same hitter as ever but suffered from an unseasonably low .257 batting average on balls in play. This year, the BABIP gods have repaid him with a .363 mark, and his output has risen to a strong .290/.371/.427 level. Walker is helping hold down the fort for now in Miami but seems like a rather likely mid-season trade piece, as he ought to be able to help out a contending team as a multi-position infielder.
Blake Parker, Twins, $1.8MM: The Angels would take a do-over on their non-tender decision, as Parker has turned in 16 1/3 innings of 1.10 ERA ball for a bargain rate of pay. True, he’s carrying just 6.6 K/9 with 3.9 BB/9, but his strong 56.1% groundball rate is a nice base to work from. There’s really no reason to think that Parker will keep up the immaculate results, as he’s highly unlikely to carry a .195 BABIP and 96.2% strand rate all year long. Still, he has saved eight games for the streaking Twins and now seems to be a key part of the bullpen picture for a surefire postseason team. Parker is also eligible to be tendered a contract through arbitration one more time this fall.
Tim Beckham, Mariners, $1.75MM: It was a crafty move for M’s GM Jerry Dipoto to double down on the buy-low middle infielders. After acquiring J.P. Crawford, he grabbed a seat-warmer/bounceback piece in Beckham. That combination spread the bets and boosted the upside potential. It has been a hit so far, with Crawford hitting well at Triple-A and Beckham showing big thus far in the majors. Through 171 plate appearances, the former first overall pick owns a .259/.316/.506 slash with nine long balls. Regression may well be in store — Beckham is striking out at a 29.2% clip and hasn’t sustained prior breakouts — but it’s nice to have the production for the time being and he could still be flipped via trade or tendered for 2020.
Brett Anderson, Athletics, $1.5MM: You have to tip your cap to Anderson, who’s still pushing to get to the mound despite a lengthy run of injury woes. He has been able to stay active this year, turning in ten starts and 54 1/3 badly needed innings for the pitching-starved A’s, who brought him back on a late-breaking deal. Anderson isn’t exactly shoving, with a 4.14 ERA and just 4.6 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 along with a sturdy 51.9% groundball rate, but thus far he’s tamping down the long balls and doing just enough to succeed. Not convinced of the value? Just take a look at the return other teams have received on higher-priced, one-year starters.
By Jeff Todd | at
The pitching arms race is in a fascinating place. There’s velocity everywhere you look. Pitch development and analysis has grown by leaps and bounds. Physical tools interact with tunneling and sequencing/location strategies. It’s an ever-changing landscape, leaving ample room for players to emerge — particularly in the relief realm, where a hurler may only be a tweak or two away from emerging as a dominant force. (The opposite also holds true.)
Let’s take a look around the league at some relief pitchers who have debuted or exhibited intriguing new performance levels in 2019 and consider which seem most likely to continue:
Nick Anderson, Marlins: When you’re a relief pitcher with a rebuilding club who turns 29 in the summer of your debut season, expectations just aren’t going to be all that high. A seemingly minor pre-Rule 5 trade acquisition, Anderson has taken off in Miami with 11 innings of 2.45 ERA pitching and a whopping 22 strikeouts on an 18.4% swinging-strike rate. He has only handed out two free passes, both of them intentional walks. The Twins would surely like a re-do on the decision to part with Anderson. (Their own late-blooming relief success story, Ryne Harper, doesn’t have nearly the shiny peripherals to support his useful showing thus far.)
Robert Stephenson, Reds: It was do-or-die time for the 26-year-old former top prospect, who’s out of options. He’s doing quite nicely thus far, with a 2.08 ERA and 12.5 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 13 innings of action. While the talent has never been in question, the results have never really been there for Stephenson. But he’s thriving in a pen role and showing that the stuff plays legitimately against MLB hitters, with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaning heavily on his slider (59.3%), mixing that primarily with a 94.9 mph fastball. It seems the tools are there for continued success.
Sam Gaviglio, Blue Jays: Sometimes, moving from the rotation to the pen results in a boost, and that seems to be the case here. All the arrows are pointing up for the righty as he closes in on his 29th birthday: K%-BB% (25.9%); swinging-strike rate (16.9%); groundball rate (54.3%). He still doesn’t throw hard, but he’s closer to 90 mph on average than ever before with his sinker. And in a relief capacity, Gaviglio has been able to go much more frequently to his slider (44.6%). With a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, the results have followed.
Brandon Brennan, Mariners: 9.6 K/9 vs. 2.4 BB/9 and a 58.3% grounder rate? That’ll work. It’s a 15-inning sample, but an impressive one for a player who was plucked in the Rule 5 draft after signing a minor-league deal with another club. He’s carrying a hefty 16.3% swinging-strike rate while punishing opposing hitters with equal doses of a mid-nineties heater and evidently improved change. Seattle may well have a keeper in the 27-year-old righty.
Trevor Gott, Giants: After failing to turn the corner for several seasons with the Nats, Gott has finally seemed to get it in San Francisco. Through 13 innings he owns a 2.08 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Gone are the grounders that were once his greatest attribute; also missing so far are the homers that plagued him. Gott is now working primarily off of a four-seamer instead of a two-seamer, allowing him to nearly triple his swinging-strike rate from last year (5.6% to 14.2%).
Luke Jackson, Braves: Though he threw 91 1/3 innings with Atlanta over the prior two seasons, Jackson was bounced from the 40-man roster on several occasions and was never secure in a role. He may be on to something in 2019, though. He’s still handing out too many walks, but Jackson has also bumped his swing-and-miss capabilities (11.9 K/9, 15.0% SwStr%) by boosting his slider usage (52.2%) and drawing more chases out of the zone (41.1%). Most fascinating of all? Through 11 1/3 innings, Jackson is a groundball monster, with 21 of the 28 balls put in play against him classed as grounders. Average opponent launch angle? A smooth -5.6 degrees.
Connor Sadzeck, Mariners: While he got results in a brief stint last year with the Rangers, there were glaring walk issues. Sadzeck has righted the ship so far with his new organization, allowing one earned in eight frames with nine strikeouts and three walks. He’s going to his slider more than half the time and generating a solid 13.6% swinging-strike rate thus far. Most importantly, getting strikes on 60.0% of his first pitches has set Sadzeck up to continue limiting the free passes.
Nick Wittgren, Indians: In the bullpen game, you win some, you lose some. Miami parted with Wittgren after the 27-year-old turned in a solid but hardly overwhelming 2018 season. He seems to have found another gear in Cleveland, though it remains to be seen whether it’s sustainable. Wittgren has eleven strikeouts without a walk through eight innings and is carrying a 58.8% groundball rate — markers of dominance he has never previously hinted at. He’s throwing much the same pitches at much the same speeds and generating only an 8.4% swinging-strike rate, so it seems there may be some short-sample hijinks at play.
Ian Kennedy, Royals: The 34-year-old is a veritable rookie as a reliever, having spent the virtual entirety of his pro career to this point in a rotation. He’s finding new life as a pen piece, working to a 1.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 along with a 48.5% groundball rate over 12 2/3 frames. He hasn’t found new heights in the swing-and-miss department (10.3% is at, but not over, his career ceiling as a starter) but is working with newfound velocity (94.2 mph average four-seamer) and seems to have benefited from shelving his change in favor of his curve.
Jake Newberry, Royals: A much younger K.C. entrant takes the final spot (which could also have gone to newcomer Richard Lovelady or a few other contenders). Another hurler who is finding success with heavy slider usage, Newberry has boosted his swinging-strike rate from under ten percent last year to 15.8% in 2019. He’s rarely in the zone (31.5%) but has a 10:1 K/BB ratio over eight innings since he is getting first strikes three out of five times and having no problem convincing opposing batters to chase out of the zone (36.8%). The 24-year-old is inducing loads of fly balls, which could spell trouble if they begin to leave the yard. It’s a delicate balancing act that’ll be tough to sustain.
Honorable mention (or: “what about [player x]?!”):
Guys like Matt Barnes, Reyes Moronta, and Lou Trivino have had too much success in the past to be considered, even if they are making further strides. Marcus Walden and Ty Buttrey were closer cases given their thinner track records, but largely showed their current form last season. Nick Burdi might have been considered despite his ugly ERA but for his unfortunate recent injury. Wander Suero, Giovanny Gallegos, Adam Morgan, Daniel Stumpf, Luis Cessa, Buck Farmer, and Kyle Ryan are among the pitchers who have shown quality swinging-strike rates or other intriguing developments. But they all had less innings and/or greater warts than the players listed above. I’d almost certainly have given a spot to John Means, but he’s not being utilized as a traditional short reliever.
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