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Latest On Angels’ Deadline Outlook

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The Angels are one of the few obvious deadline sellers at the moment, but even they might not be fully open for business. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that the club prefers to hold onto outfielder Taylor Ward and starters Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning, due to the fact all three are signed/controlled into next season. If the Angels are reluctant to move anyone signed or controlled beyond the current campaign, that would then extend to Luis Rengifo as well. Anderson is signed through 2025 and earning $13MM each season. Ward is controlled through 2026 via arbitration. Canning and Rengifo are arb-eligible through the 2025 season.

It’s always possible, especially this time of year, that there’s some level of posturing in that stance. The Halos are 15 games under .500, 10.5 games out of the division lead and 12 games out of a Wild Card spot as of Monday morning. Their -78 run differential is the fifth-worst in MLB. Mike Trout has been on the injured list since late April. Patrick Sandoval and Robert Stephenson have both been lost to UCL surgeries. To say things have not gone well in 2024 would be putting things mildly.

That said, Angels owner Arte Moreno has long appeared averse to embarking on any kind of rebuilding effort. The Angels have regularly been active in free agency and on the trade market over the past decade, even as their playoff drought has grown to the largest in the sport. (They last qualified for postseason play in 2014.) That trend has spanned multiple general managers — Jerry Dipoto, Billy Eppler, Perry Minasian — and thus seems largely attributable to ownership. Even as they were faced with losing Shohei Ohtani in free agency this offseason, Minasian decisively stated that the Angels would not rebuild.

When considering that context, it’s easier to see a scenario in which the Angels would rebuff interest in names like Ward — even if there’s a strong logical case that they should be capitalizing on trade value nearly anywhere it exists on the roster. As it stands, Nightengale writes that the Angels have been “bombarded” with interest in closer Carlos Estevez and are also likely to trade setup man Luis Garcia. Other rental players of note on the Halos include Matt Moore, Brandon Drury, Kevin Pillar, Hunter Strickland and Miguel Sano.

The 31-year-old Estevez is in the second season of a two-year, $13.5MM contract signed in the 2022-23 offseason. The longtime Rockies hurler has taken his game to a new level in Anaheim — particularly in 2024. He boasts a tidy 2.89 ERA with a strong 26.9% strikeout rate and a career-best 3.8% walk rate. Estevez averages just shy of 97 mph on his heater, has picked up 16 saves this year (and 31 last year), and was named the AL Reliever of the Month in June after tossing 10 shutout innings and recording a 32.3% strikeout rate without issuing a walk.

Garcia, 37, is on a one-year, $4.25MM contract. He’s pitched 36 innings and yielded a 4.25 ERA while recording nine holds. The veteran righty has fanned a sharp 23.7% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.9% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a hearty 49.5% clip. His sinker is down from the career-best 98.7 mph average he showed with the Padres in 2022 but still has plenty of life, sitting at 96.4 mph, per Statcast.

Strickland, 35, has had an up-and-down career with inconsistent year-to-year results but is in the midst of a strong season. He’s pitched 40 innings out of the bullpen and logged a 3.60 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 35.3% ground-ball rate and 0.90 HR/9. Over his past 9 2/3 innings, he’s gone unscored upon and allowed only one hit and three walks while punching out 10 batters.

The 35-year-old Pillar was released by the White Sox in April and has been a godsend in Anaheim. Since heading to Orange County, the journeyman outfielder has turned in a huge .305/.360/.516 slash with six home runs and five steals in just 139 plate appearances. Pillar recently acknowledged that this will likely be his final season, so it stands to reason that he’d welcome the opportunity to join one more playoff race and one more chance to chase down a World Series ring.

None of the other rental options on the Angels’ roster are performing particularly well. Moore, Adam Cimber and Jose Cisnero all signed one-year deals in the offseason. Moore has seen his strikeout rate plummet as he’s struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00. Both Cimber and Cisnero have ERAs north of 7.00 and are presently on the injured list. Drury, hitting .172/.24/.227 in the second season of a two-year $17MM deal, is more a release candidate than a trade candidate. Sano, back in the majors after not playing in 2023, is hitting .205/.295/.313 with a 37.9% strikeout rate in 95 plate appearances.

Who Could The Angels Trade This Summer?

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The Angels came into 2024 hoping to compete, despite losing Shohei Ohtani to free agency, but it’s not going well so far. It’s usually unwise to pour dirt on a club’s grave so early in the season, but the odds were against them even before the 2024 campaign started. They have piled up a few losses while Mike Trout is once again facing a significant absence, narrowing whatever contention window they had.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 16.9% chance of making the playoffs prior to any games being played. Now that the club is 11-20 and Trout is set to miss weeks due to surgery to repair a torn meniscus, those odds have slimmed. As of this morning, their chances of cracking the postseason are down to 2.6%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even more pessimistic, giving the Halos just a 0.3% shot.

Barring a miracle in the next few months, they are going to be deadline sellers in the months to come. There could be some speculation about Trout being available, but that’s a complicated situation. He has full no-trade protection and has said he wants to stay in Anaheim. Even if he changes his mind and wants out, facilitating a deal won’t be easy. Despite his immense talents, he actually has negative trade value right now. He is about to turn 33 years old, is making $35.45MM annually through 2030 and has frequently been injured in recent years.

The Angels would be in a tough spot, as they would likely want some notable prospect return in trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Trout, but they would have to swallow a significant portion of the deal to make that happen. On top of that, Trout’s no-trade clause means they would have to factor in his preferences, perhaps narrowing their options and reducing their leverage. Given how convoluted the factors are, a Trout trade isn’t likely to come together hastily, especially since he’s currently hurt.

On top of Trout, there are others who aren’t likely to be moved. Anthony Rendon has a massive salary and hasn’t been healthy in years. Robert Stephenson recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is out until the middle of next year, at least. Players like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel are still in their pre-arbitration years, giving the club little reason to move them.

But that still leaves them with quite a few options that could hold appeal around the league:

Luis Rengifo

Rengifo is currently hitting .326/.376/.465 this year for a 142 wRC+. That’s at least partly a mirage because he won’t be able to sustain a .377 batting average on balls in play all season. But even with a bit of regression, he’d be on track for his third straight year of above-average offense. He hit a combined .264/.315/.436 over 2022 and 2023, with a 103 wRC+ in the first of those two seasons and a 114 wRC+ last year.

Defensively, Rengifo can play all over the diamond. He has spent time at the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as all three outfield slots. He’s not considered especially strong at any one spot, but the ability to move around will help him fit in with other clubs. The fact that he’s a switch-hitter gives him extra versatility.

Financially, Rengifo is making just $4.4MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration for next year as well. Even if a club has financial concerns due to the competitive balance tax or lack of TV revenue, he won’t break the bank.

Carlos Estévez

Estévez is out to a rough start this year with a 6.23 ERA, but the numbers are good just about everywhere else. He is striking out 29.4% of batters faced on the year and hasn’t yet issued a walk. The runs are scoring at least partially due to a tiny strand rate of 48.4%. His 3.83 FIP and 2.70 SIERA point to him being the same lockdown reliever he has been in previous years.

The righty has a 4.51 career ERA but spent his entire career in Colorado until last year. He secured a two-year, $13.5MM deal with the Angels going into 2023. His first season in Anaheim saw him rack up 31 saves while punching out 27.8% of opponents, though walking 11% of them. He should be one of the better rental relievers available this summer. He’s making a salary of $6.75MM this year.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson’s up-and-down career is in a bit of an upswing right now, at least in terms of results. Through six starts this year, he has a 2.23 earned run average. But with a .194 BABIP and 90.9% strand rate, he likely won’t be able to keep that up. His 4.76 FIP and 4.80 SIERA suggest regression is coming, as his 18.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate are both subpar.

The lefty secured a three-year, $39MM deal with the Halos going into 2023. He had a 4.62 ERA through 2021 but then posted a 2.57 ERA with the Dodgers in 2022. That led to his deal with the Angels, but he regressed immediately with a 5.43 ERA last year. Though his results will likely dip a bit as the year goes on, pitching is always in demand at the deadline and the Angels could be able to eat some of his salary to get a deal done. His contract pays him $13MM annually and runs through the end of 2025.

Griffin Canning

Health has been the big question mark for Canning, but he showed positive development in that department last year. He missed the 2022 season entirely but then appeared in 24 games in 2023 — 22 of them starts — while logging 127 innings. All of those figures were career-highs. Beyond the quantity, the quality was also encouraging. He had a 4.32 ERA on the year with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.

Unfortunately, things have backed up in 2024. Through six starts, he has struck out just 15.9% of opponents while walking 9.1%, leading to a 7.45 ERA. A 56.1% strand rate isn’t helping him, but even his 5.48 FIP and 4.96 SIERA aren’t amazing. He’ll have to get things back on track in the months to come but would have some appeal if he did. Because of the missed injury time, he’s making a modest $2.6MM salary this year and has one more arbitration season remaining in 2025.

Patrick Sandoval

Sandoval’s ERA is up at 5.91 this year, but the numbers under the hood are more encouraging. His 10.8% walk rate is a bit high, but he’s striking out 25.7% of batters faced and getting grounders on 47.3% of balls in play. Were it not for a .396 BABIP and 57.5% strand rate, he’d be in better shape, which is why he has a 3.17 FIP and 3.83 SIERA.

He’s a bit less of an obvious trade candidate since he’s controlled through 2026. He’s making $5.025MM this year and will have two more arb seasons before he’s slated for free agency. The Halos could hold him if they think they can compete again in that window, but his trade value will only decline going forward as his control window shrinks and his salary keeps rising.

Taylor Ward

Ward is in the same service bucket as Sandoval, meaning he has two years of control beyond this one. He’s had a bit of a stop-and-go career due to injuries but is often in good form when healthy. He already has seven home runs this year and is slashing .278/.313/.492 with a 126 wRC+. Going back to the start of 2021, he’s hit .267/.343/.453 for a 122 wRC+.

Similar to Sandoval, the Halos don’t have to move Ward, but there’s an argument for it. He’s making $4.8MM this year and will be in line for a healthy raise if he keeps hitting homers. Since his health has been so mercurial, they might be tempted to strike while the iron is hot, cashing him in for younger players if he stays healthy through July.

Matt Moore

Moore is continuing to enjoy a nice second act to his career after moving from the rotation to the bullpen. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 125 appearances with a 2.35 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate.

His strikeout rate has dipped to 21.3% this year, but in a small sample of 12 appearances. His 3.97 ERA is more passable than it is exciting and he’s making $9MM on the year. But every contender is looking for bullpen upgrades at the deadline and Moore will have suitors, especially since he’s left-handed.

Brandon Drury

Drury parlayed a 28-homer breakout in 2022 into a two-year, $17MM deal to suit up for the team he grew up cheering for. The first season went well, as he launched another 26 home runs last year while bouncing between multiple positions, but he’s out to a dreadful start here in 2024. He has battled some hamstring tightness and migraines while hitting just .176/.245/.235.

Those nagging injuries are surely playing a part in his struggles, as is a .209 BABIP. He could be due for a turnaround if his health and batted-ball fortune both improve. If that comes to pass, he could fit on multiple clubs around the league. He has played all four infield positions and the outfield corners in his career, so various teams could find a way to squeeze him in.

Luis García

Somewhat similar to Estévez, García is allowing more runs than he seemingly deserves. He has struck out 28.3% of opponents this year while walking just 5.7% and keeping 54.3% of balls in play on the ground, leading to a 2.52 FIP and 2.38 SIERA. But a strand rate of just 39.7% has helped push some runners across the plate, leading to a 5.54 ERA.

He’s a 37-year-old veteran and won’t fetch a huge return, but each contender needs bullpen help. He’s making just $4.25MM on a one-year deal and has a decent track record. Since the start of 2021, he has a 3.77 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate.

Adam Cimber

Cimber had a pretty solid run in 2021 and 2022, pitching over 70 innings in each of those seasons with a combined ERA of 2.53. He only struck out 18.8% of batters faced in that time, but he only walked 5% of them while his submarine delivery helped him produce a 47.9% ground ball rate and lots of weak contact.

He was hurt for a lot of 2023 and his ERA shot up to 7.40 when he was on the mound. The Angels took a shot on a bounceback which has mostly gone well so far, as Cimber has a 3.14 ERA this year. His 11.1% walk rate is uncharacteristically high, as he’s never finished a season above 7.8% in that department. If he can shake off the rust and rein in his control, perhaps he’ll be back in 2021-22 form in the months to come. He’s making just $1.65MM this year and could fit in the budget of any club.

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The Angels could also push further, depending on what their long-term plans are. Reid Detmers and Jo Adell haven’t yet reached arbitration yet, but they will this coming winter. Adell has struggled so much over the years but is in good form so far this year, which may tempt the Angels to listen to offers on him now in case he turns into a pumpkin. He’s slashing .290/.338/.565 for a 152 wRC+, with his 26.5% strikeout rate a big improvement compared to previous years.

Parting with Detmers could be painful since he seems to be breaking out this year. He has a 3.12 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate. With three more years of control beyond this one, there’s no rush to move him. But if the club is planning a significant rebuild, those years might be wasted in Anaheim. If they decide to pull the trigger, he would fetch a haul.

Angels Select Carson Fulmer, Place Mike Trout On 60-Day IL

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The Angels are calling up right-hander Carson Fulmer, as noted by Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. He’ll take the active roster spot of lefty Tyler Anderson, who was placed on the injured list yesterday with left knee soreness. A 40-man roster spot was cleared for Fulmer by placing outfielder Mike Trout on the 60-day IL, with manager Phil Nevin confirming to reporters (including Bollinger) that the veteran star’s season is over. The club also announced that infielder Mike Moustakas has been reinstated from the 10-day IL, with first baseman C.J. Cron going on the injured list to clear space on the active roster.

Fulmer was selected eighth overall in the 2015 draft by the White Sox and made his major league debut back in 2016, though he was never able to full establish himself in the majors. He posted a 6.56 ERA across 94 2/3 innings of work between 2016 and 2019 with Chicago before making brief cameos in Detroit, Baltimore, and Cincinnati over the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In those two seasons, Fulmer combined for a 6.00 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 36 innings of work.

Fulmer didn’t pitch in the majors in 2022, instead spending the season with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City. He posted a 2.86 ERA in 56 2/3 innings at that level last year, strong enough numbers that the Angels opted to offer him a minor league deal back in May. Things didn’t go as smoothly for Fulmer this year, however, as he posted a 5.27 ERA in 41 innings of work with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate in Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, Fulmer will get his first taste of big league action since 2021 with the Angels as they look toward what remains of their depth to help cover innings for the season’s final stretch.

The addition of Fulmer to the roster officially brings the season to an end for Trout, who appeared in just one game after landing on the injured list with a left hamate fracture in early July. It was a relative down season for Trout when he was on the field, as the superstar slashed .263/.367/.490 in 362 trips to the plate with the Angels this year. Of course, those numbers still clock in at 34% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and really only constitute a down season by Trout’s incredibly lofty standards. Trout will look toward a return to the field in 2024, where better health hopefully awaits him after averaging just 79 games a season since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Also done for the year is Cron, who slashed a decent .260/.304/.476 in 224 trips to the plate with Colorado this year but saw his performance take a nosedive following a trade to Anaheim. In 15 games with the Angels, Cron posted a brutal .200/.259/.260 slash line that was good for a wRC+ of just 42. A pending free agent this offseason, Cron will face stiff competition from players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper and Brandon Belt who are also primarily limited to first base defensively. Cron’s placement on the IL makes way for the return of Moustakas, who similarly posted solid numbers in Colorado before suffering a downturn in performance upon heading to Anaheim. Overall, Moustakas has slashed .252/.300/.404 in 370 trips to the plate this season.

AL West Notes: Astros, Anderson, Rendon, Murphy

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The Astros have been without outfielder Michael Brantley for most of the past week due to soreness, which according to manager Dusty Baker (as relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) is “mostly” in his surgically repaired shoulder. That’s troublesome news for Houston, as the veteran outfielder has played in just 12 games since he was shut down for shoulder surgery last summer. That Brantley’s been forced off the field by his ailing shoulder once again raises questions as the Astros gear up to defend their title as the reigning World Series champions this fall, though it’s at least somewhat encouraging that the club hasn’t yet elected to place him on the injured list.

Brantley’s absence would normally be expected to allow Yordan Alvarez to move into left field, freeing up the DH spot for a bat like rookie catcher Yainer Diaz. Things aren’t quite that simple, however, as Alvarez is dealing with injury issues of his own. The slugger told reporters, including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, recently that he hasn’t been able to play the field recently after “feeling something” in his elbow earlier in the month while swinging the bat. The incident has left the Astros acting cautiously with their superstar slugger, who has slashed .293/.410/.578 in 106 games with the club this year. While Rome notes that Alvarez was taking fly balls and throwing in the outfield before today’s game, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed yesterday that Baker is still trying to avoid using Alvarez in the outfield during games.

With Brantley unavailable and Alvarez seemingly restricted to DH, the club figures to rely on the services of Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon in the outfield for the time being. With Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field on an everyday bases and both Meyers and Dubon grading out as solid center fielders defensively, the unfortunate injury situation with Brantley and Alvarez has nonetheless allowed the Astros to improve their outfield defense by moving Chas McCormick into left field rather than utilizing him in center.

More from the AL West…

  • Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson saw his season come to an end today, as the club placed him on the 15-day IL with left knee soreness (as noted by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) following today’s game against the Twins. Anderson was poised to start tomorrow’s game for Anaheim, though no replacement starter has been announced to this point. Anderson’s first year with the Angels was a difficult one, as the lefty posted a 5.43 ERA and 4.93 FIP in 141 innings of work. Anderson signed a three-year, $39MM deal with the club early last offseason after posting a fantastic season in 2022 with the Dodgers.
  • Sticking with the Angels, Bollinger also relays that third baseman Anthony Rendon isn’t expected to return from the injured list this season, according to club manager Phil Nevin. 2023 will go down as yet another injury-marred campaign for the veteran third baseman, who has been on the shelf since early July with a shin injury and has played just 148 games since the start of the 2021 campaign. Rendon, who slashed .236/.361/.318 with a wRC+ of 95 in 183 trips to the plate this year, has three years and roughly $116MM left on his contract with the club headed into 2024.
  • The Mariners have been without catcher Tom Murphy for over a month due to a thumb fracture and was shut down from baseball activity earlier in September due to the issue. While that diagnosis put the remainder of his 2023 in doubt, it’s possible that there’s reason for optimism regarding Murphy’s ability to return this year, at least in the event that Seattle makes it to the postseason. MLB.com notes that Murphy was poised to undergo an MRI yesterday to determine whether he could resume baseball activities, though no update has been provided regarding the catcher’s status at this point. Murphy’s hit exceptionally well in a back-up role this year behind Cal Raleigh, with a .290/.335/.538 slash line in 159 trips to the plate this year. The club has recently been relying on Luis Torrens as their second catcher in Murphy’s absence.

Angels Place Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk On Waivers

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In a stunning development, the Angels have waved the white flag on their season, placing starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Each player is an impending free agent and the Angels are apparently hoping to save some money by having some or all of them claimed off waivers while simultaneously allowing the players to join playoff contenders before the September 1 cutoff. Dominic Leone is also on the list, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The Halos also placed starter Tyler Anderson on waivers last week, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). He went unclaimed and elected to stick with the Halos. That no one took Anderson on is hardly a surprise. He’s only in the first season of a three-year, $39MM free agent contract that hasn’t gone well in year one. In 117 2/3 innings, the veteran southpaw has a 5.35 ERA.

The Angels have been making a strong push to contend in recent years, trying to put a competitive ballclub around their superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Part of their offseason upgrades included signing Moore and trading for Renfroe. The club hovered around contention through the trade deadline, deciding to hang onto Ohtani as well as making further additions, including Giolito, López and Grichuk.

Unfortunately, just about everything has gone wrong in the month of August, with the club having posted a record of 7-18 so far this month. As if that weren’t enough, Ohtani was diagnosed with a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow, which will prevent him from pitching again this season. Trout, meanwhile, attempted to return from his hamate surgery despite still being sore but was in too much pain to continue and landed right back on the IL.

This brutal month has pushed the Angels’ record to 63-69, which leaves them 11.5 games back of a playoff spot. Calculations from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the club no hope of coming back, making this a lost season. All six of the players reportedly on waivers are impending free agents, meaning they have no real use to the Angels now. The only player of the bunch that would warrant a qualifying offer, allowing the Angels to recoup draft pick compensation, would be Giolito but he’s ineligible to receive one since he was traded midseason.

Since the trade deadline passed four weeks ago, there’s no way for the Angels to exchange any of those players for any kind of future value. But by putting them on waivers, they at least give themselves a chance of saving some money. Giolito is making $10.4MM this year, without about $1.9MM left to be paid out. For Renfroe, those figures are $11.9MM and $2.18MM. For Moore, $7.55M and $1.38MM. López, $3.625MM and $633K. Leone is $1.5MM and $275K. Grichuk’s case is slightly more complicated since he’s making $9.33MM this year as part of the extension he signed with the Blue Jays, though that club is eating $4.33MM of that while the Rockies also sent some cash considerations is to the Angels when trading them Grichuk and C.J. Cron. There’s about $1.71MM left to be paid out though a claiming team wouldn’t be responsible for all of it.

Beyond the strict cash savings, dumping some salary will have luxury tax implications for the Angels. Roster Resource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax figure at $234.4MM, just $1.4MM over the base threshold of $233MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even farther over at $241.7MM. Both of those numbers are unofficial but highlight that the club is likely over the line by a small amount. The Angels are sure to make Ohtani a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. That compensation would be a pick just after the fourth round if they are a CBT payor but would move to just before the third round if they can dip below. That would roughly move the draft pick from around the 140th pick to the 75-80 range. Being a repeat payor also has escalating penalties, so avoiding paying the tax now could benefit the club if they decide to spend aggressively again next year.

In prior seasons, the July trade deadline was followed by a second deadline in August, though the latter portion required players to clear revocable waivers before being dealt. In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, with no trades allowed at all after the first deadline. There’s no longer any way for a club to make deals at this part of the calendar but players are still playoff eligible if they join an organization prior to September 1. That means they may find interest on the waiver wire, so long as the claiming club is willing to take on the salary of the player in question.

The waiver order goes in reverse order of standings, regardless of league. The previous August waiver trade system used to be league-specific but that’s no longer in place. As of today, the Athletics would have first dibs on any of these players, followed by the Royals, then the Rockies and so on, simply going from worst record to best, regardless of league. Of course, there’s little reason for those clubs out of contention to claim an impending free agent and take on their salary commitments. The claims are more likely to be made by clubs still hoping to make the playoffs, with those with worse records having a better chance of a successful claim than those at the top of the standings.

This will lead to some interesting calculations in the days to come. Many contending clubs have already spent the majority of the money they had allotted for the season, but will have to decide on whether it’s worthwhile to suddenly add another $1.9MM just for one month of Giolito to help with a stretch run, for example. He’s been inconsistent since joining the Angels but had a 3.79 ERA for the White Sox prior to the deal and has a longer track record of success, with a 3.86 ERA from 2019 to 2022.

Moore made a transition to the bullpen in recent years with excellent results, with a 1.95 ERA last year and 2.30 ERA this year. López is fairly similar, having gone from a fairly mediocre starter earlier in his career to effective reliever, including a 3.86 ERA this year. Renfroe’s production has been up-and-down, with a .240/.300/.480 batting line in his career but a lesser .239/.300/.425 showing this year. Grichuk is having another season with his blend of power but a subpar walk rate, slashing .261/.317/.435. Leone has struggled with control but has generally posted above-average strikeout rates.

For the players, they likely aren’t thrilled about being subject to the whims of the waiver wire, especially the ones who only just became Angels recently. But they will at least likely find themselves moving from a sinking ship to a contender in the coming days, giving them a chance to compete in a playoff race and perhaps get into the postseason.

As for the clubs considering a claim, this will be their best chance to bolster their rosters for the final month of the season, now that the deadline is long gone. It’s also possible that a new precedent has been set for the end of August, as it’s not just the Angels that have taken this tack. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Carlos Carrasco of the Mets, Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and José Cisnero of the Tigers have also been placed on waivers, while Erik Boland of Newsday first reported that Harrison Bader of the Yankees is also on the list.

Though the moves make some sense for the Angels, it’s undoubtedly a frustrating low point as the attempts to contend have repeatedly failed. They gave up several notable prospects to acquire some of these players just a few weeks ago and are now trying to give them away for little more than cost savings. They are now sure to finish the season without having made the playoffs since 2014 and could potentially watch Ohtani sign with a new club this winter.

Angels Looking To Increase Workload For Top Starters

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Angels manager Phil Nevin spoke with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) about the club’s pitching plans this afternoon. The Halos have run with a six-man rotation for the past few seasons, and while they could adopt that as a loose framework in 2023, Nevin indicated the team wants to put an emphasis on allowing the pitchers at the top of the rotation- including two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani – to get more action on the mound. Rather than adhere to a rigid six-man staff every turn through, Nevin suggested the club would be flexible in deploying their nominal sixth starter as more of a swing option.

Headed into the 2022 season, the club had few surefire starting pitchers beyond Ohtani, as Patrick Sandoval had started just fourteen games in 2021 while the big pitching acquisition for the Halos that offseason was Noah Syndergaard, who was returning to the mound after pitching just two innings since the end of the 2019 season.

Fortunately, the 2022 season saw multiple impressive performances from Angels starters: in addition to Ohtani improving as a pitcher on his 2021 MVP campaign and placing fourth in Cy Young award voting, Sandoval impressed with a 2.91 ERA and 3.09 FIP in a career-high 148 2/3 innings while Reid Detmers showed flashes of the talent that made him the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Jose Suarez proved to be a capable back-of-the-rotation starter over twenty starts. The Halos also improved their rotation externally with the addition of Tyler Anderson, a durable starter who broke out with the crosstown Dodgers in 2023 to the tune of a 2.57 ERA and 3.31 FIP across 178 2/3 innings.

With Sandoval having proved himself, Anderson under contract, and both Detmers and Suarez looking ready for a bigger challenge, it makes sense for the Angels to try and lean more on their top five in the rotation, especially if it means getting Ohtani on the mound more often. After years of carefully managing Ohtani’s workload in an attempt to keep him healthy, the Angels have allowed him to play more and more, with less firm restrictions in recent years. Considering a more traditional rotation appears to be the next logical step in that process.

Each of those five starting options appears likely to be a substantial improvement over the starts Anaheim’s internal options for a sixth starter can provide. Following his trade to the Angels last summer as part of the deal that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Braves, lefty Tucker Davidson struggled mightily in eight starts (36 2/3 innings): a ghastly 6.87 ERA and nearly matching 6.30 FIP was good for an ERA+ of just 60, or 40% worse than the league average pitcher.

Blum notes that right-hander Griffin Canning is fully healthy and partook in a normal offseason after missing the entire 2022 season with a back injury, so he could certainly factor into the sixth starter mix as well. That said, despite roughly league average results in his major league career to this point (an ERA+ of 96 in 209 1/3 innings spanning from 2019 to 2021), Canning has never reached 100 innings pitched in the majors and is coming off a long layoff, so it would be no surprise if the Angels planned on managing his workload carefully during his age-27 season.

Overall, given the relative strength of their starting five, the emphasis on letting Ohtani play without restriction in recent years, and the dearth of quality, reliable options for the sixth starter slot, Nevin’s plan to consider a more traditional rotation in 2023 makes sense. A reliable sixth starter would likely have to come externally, and those options are slim following Michael Wacha’s signing with the Padres earlier today.

The Angels’ Potentially Elite Rotation

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Despite boasting two of the most gifted players on the planet on their roster, the Angels have failed to make the playoffs since 2014 and failed to secure a winning season since 2015. As they have been for quite some time, they’ll look to change that in 2023 and return to the playoffs. While they haven’t made a splashy move, their signings of Tyler Anderson, Carlos Estevez and Brandon Drury, and acquisition of Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe have put them in good shape to do well this year.

Of course, a big challenge for the Angels is that they play in a division with the defending champion Astros, as well as the Mariners and Rangers, two teams that have big ambitions to compete this season. If they are to return to the postseason, they’ll need contributions across the board, but one area that the Angels will surely be leaning on as a strength is their starting rotation. The team has tended to work with a six-man rotation to preserve Shohei Ohtani’s workload in the past, and given they were linked with Nathan Eovaldi just before he signed with Texas, it seems likely they’ll add another starter before the season starts.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at the starting five for the Angels as things stand:

Shohei Ohtani: The Angels will be relying on their two-way superstar to have another monster season this year. There’s not a lot that hasn’t been said about how good Ohtani is, but for this exercise we’ll talk about him purely as a pitcher. He had his best year yet in 2022, throwing 166 innings of 2.33 ERA ball. The strikeouts were up, the walks were down, and Ohtani benefited a fair bit from leaning less on his fastball and throwing his slider more often. Angels manager Phil Nevin has already stated he plans to increase Ohtani’s workload next season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles that given his other duties, but if the Angels can get another year like 2022 out of their ace they’ll come away very happy.

Tyler Anderson: Signed to a three-year, $39MM deal, the left-handed Anderson is the lone new face in the Angels starting rotation. A respectable back-of-the-rotation starter for a number of years, Anderson broke out with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA over 178 2/3 innings. It wasn’t so much an overhaul of his pitching repertoire as it was a few small tweaks (bumping up his changeup usage slightly) that seemingly did the trick for Anderson, and he induced a ton of soft contact out of opposition hitters. If he can show 2022 was no outlier Anderson will slot in as a very reliable second option behind Ohtani.

Patrick Sandoval: The second of four southpaws in the rotation, Sandoval enjoyed his own breakout year in 2022. The 26-year-old gave the Angels 148 innings of 2.91 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 23.7% clip and walking them 9.4% of the time. FIP pegged him a 3.91, which suggests a bit of regression is due, but he also had an above-average opponent’s BABIP of .316. Regardless, even if he can’t post a sub-3 ERA Sandoval definitely has the makings of a very productive starter. He struggled early on in his career, working to a 5.33 ERA between 2019-20, but has been highly effective ever since. One change he did make in 2022 was throwing his fastball less and leaning far more on his slider.

Jose Suarez: The 24-year-old hurled 109 innings of 3.96 ERA ball for the Angels last year, showing a strong 7.1% walk rate and a solid 22.3% strikeout rate, both of which improved from a year prior. He maintained his fastball usage in 2022, but mixed in a slider to his off-speed stuff (which includes a curveball and changeup) that he’d only thrown sparingly in the past. The ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but he was elite in the second half last year, working to a 2.81 ERA over 11 starts after the All Star break. Still just 24 there’s certainly a ton of promise in this youngster, and if he can build off his showing in the second half the Angels will have a very good fourth starter on their staff.

Reid Detmers: Rounding out their five is Detmers, a 23-year-old southpaw who worked to a 3.77 ERA over 129 innings last season, his first full year in the big leagues. He had a fast rise through the system after being drafted 10th overall in 2020, and given there was no minor league season that year it makes his rise to the big leagues, and strong first full season that much more impressive. Detmers owns a 93 mph fastball, and mixes in a slider, curveball and changeup. There’s plenty of upside for Detmers to tap into over the next few years, and if he can take another step forward in 2023 it won’t take long before he’s near the top of a list like this rather than rounding it out.

As noted earlier, it does seem likely that the Angels would opt to bring in a sixth starter to deepen the rotation. That could be someone like Michael Wacha or Johnny Cueto off the free agent market, or they could go with an internal option such as Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning or Chris Rodriguez. They’ve also got top pitching prospect Sam Bachman at Double-A, and getting closer to being a big league option.

Regardless of who the sixth option is, there’s a lot to like about this group, even if they were just able to put in a repeat of their 2022 performance. But the key for the Angels is there’s also a ton of upside in this group, particularly in the back of the rotation. That’s the sort of thing that could go from making this a strong rotation to one that is up there with the best in baseball. Of course, an injury or two could derail things quickly and there’s a chance that players take a step back rather than a step forward, but the potential is there for this group to be dominant.

Angels Sign Tyler Anderson

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The Angels have made a notable addition to their starting staff, announcing agreement Wednesday on a three-year contract with free-agent lefty Tyler Anderson. It’s reportedly a $39MM guarantee with $13MM salaries paid out annually. Anderson had received a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer, but his deal with the Halos means he’s turning that down for a more lucrative pact. Anderson is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson, 33 in December, turned in a career-best season with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA in a career-high 178 2/3 innings. Along the way, he punched out 19.5% of his opponents against a 4.8% walk rate and 40.1% ground-ball rate.

A former first-round pick of the Rockies (No. 20 overall, in 2011), Anderson showed promise as a rookie in 2016 (3.54 ERA in 114 1/3 innings) before beginning to struggle at Coors Field and eventually incurring a fairly serious knee injury that derailed some of his prime years. Anderson was diagnosed with a chondral defect in the cartilage of his left knee, which sidelined him for the better part of a year and led to the end of his tenure with the Rockies.

Since leaving Colorado, Anderson’s climb back to big league relevance has been impressive, to say the least. Signed to a one-year, make-good deal by the Giants heading into 2020, Anderson did just that in the Covid-shortened season. A 4.37 ERA in 11 starts/13 total appearances wasn’t exactly eye-popping, but it earned him another big league deal with the Pirates the following season. Both the Phillies and Mariners went hard after Anderson at the ’21 trade deadline, with the lefty ultimately landing in Seattle. His 31 starts of roughly league-average pitching netted him a late one-year deal with the Dodgers.

As they so frequently do, the Dodgers found a way to coax a new level of performance out of Anderson in 2022. Anderson didn’t overhaul his pitch repertoire but did rely more heavily on his changeup than he has in all but the shortened 2020 season. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports points out that Anderson also abandoned a changeup grip he’d been using in recent years and went back to an old grip that wound up generating more drop and limiting hard contact more effectively than ever before. Anderson ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate, and he sat in the 95th percentile in terms of opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate.

It’ll now be incumbent upon the Angels to help Anderson sustain the 2022 version of himself even as he pitches into his mid-30s. It’s the first multi-year contract of Anderson’s career, and, more surprising, the first multi-year contract the Angels have given out to a free-agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton ten years and three general managers ago. Owner Arte Moreno has seemingly been averse to multi-year pacts for free agent starters in all but a few special cases — the Halos pursued Gerrit Cole, for instance — and it’ll be Anderson who bucks that trend at a time when Moreno is exploring a potential sale of the franchise. It’s also the second straight winter in which Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian have jumped the market to sign a pitcher who’d received a qualifying offer; the Angels signed Noah Syndergaard to a one-year, $21MM contract last year before his QO decision was formally due.

Anderson will step into a rotation that’s fronted by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, giving manager Phil Nevin a fourth lefty to follow his ace in the rotation. The Angels’ trio of Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez enjoyed, in somewhat under-the-radar fashion, a very productive 2022 season.

Adding Anderson gives the Angels a strong quintet on which to lean, and the Halos have a handful of in-house options to round out a six-man rotation if they prefer to get Ohtani an extra day of rest. Righties Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Janson Junk, Touki Toussaint and Davis Daniel are all on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Tucker Davidson, Jhonathan Diaz and Kenny Rosenberg. That certainly doesn’t preclude further additions, and it’s possible that some of those depth options won’t even last the entire offseason on the 40-man roster.

The deal pushes the Halos to a projected $173MM for the 2023 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. For luxury-tax purposes, the Anderson deal pushes the Angels to a projected $187.5MM.

The Angels opened the 2022 season with a franchise-record $188.6MM payroll, so by signing Anderson they’re already vaulting themselves up to about $15MM from their highwater mark. With several holes to fill around the roster — infield, perhaps corner outfield, bullpen — they’re likely ticketed for what will be a third consecutive season of pushing to a new franchise record.

Because the Dodgers paid the luxury tax in 2022, their compensation for losing Anderson will be a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next year’s draft. The Angels, meanwhile, as a team that neither received revenue sharing nor paid the luxury tax, will surrender their second-highest draft selection and see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $500K.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Anderson and the Angels were in agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported it was a three-year deal in the $40MM range, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com specified the $39MM guarantee. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported the even annual salary disbursement.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Red Sox Showing Early Interest In Pitchers; Not Close On Devers Extension

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As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.

Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.

Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.

Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.

Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.

On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.

Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.

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