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Blue Jays, Diamondbacks Have Expressed Interest In Ryan Helsley

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As the Cardinals eye a reset focused on younger players in 2025, Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com report that the club has received interest from the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks regarding closer Ryan Helsley. A subsequent report from John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 confirms the interest in Helsley on the part of the D-Backs, though Gambadoro adds that the Cardinals do not appear to be interested in dealing their closer.

That apparent disinclination to deal Helsley meshes with a report from earlier this month that characterized St. Louis as unlikely to part ways with Helsley this winter, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggesting at the time that they plan on Helsley remaining with the team for 2025. Given the perennial desire for high-end relief talent at the trade deadline each summer, it stands to reason that if Helsley pitches anything like he did in 2024 (2.04 ERA, 49 saves, 29.7% strikeout rate) in the first half of 2025 the Cardinals would still be able to land quite the haul for his services in the event they aren’t in position to push for a return to the playoffs.

Given that reality, it’s perhaps not a shock that the Cardinals have seemingly set an incredibly high bar for even considering moving on from the two-time All-Star. The 30-year-old has been among the league’s most dominant relievers in recent years, with a 1.83 ERA and 82 saves to go with a 34.6% strikeout rate in 167 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign. That sort of dominant relief profile can net an impressive return even with just one year of team control remaining, as the Brewers demonstrated when they acquired Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin from the Yankees in exchange for star closer Devin Williams.

Considering a report earlier this week suggested that the Snakes had interest in Williams before he was ultimately traded to the Yankees, it’s perhaps no surprise that Arizona has made contact with the Cardinals regarding Helsley. Club brass has made plain their goal of adding high-leverage relief help this winter following the loss of Paul Sewald to free agency. The club’s current back-end trio of Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Kevin Ginkel is a solid one, but it’s easy to see why the Diamondbacks would have interest in bumping a young arm like Martinez out of the closer role and bringing in someone more established.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, appear to be in the market for upgrades to virtually every area of their roster after a disappointing 2024 season that saw them finish dead last in the AL East. As star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters his final year of team control before free agency, Toronto appears to be focused on adding a bat to the lineup who can help offer him protection and bulking up a starting rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi to a midseason trade and stands to lose Chris Bassitt to free agency next winter. In addition to those two issues, however, it can’t be ignored that the Jays non-tendered longtime closer Jordan Romano last month and currently figure to rely on Chad Green and the recently re-signed Yimi Garcia in the late innings. Adding a more proven closer to that mix would surely help turn around a Blue Jays club that saw its relievers struggle to the second-worst ERA and the worst FIP in baseball last year.

Other options beyond Helsley exist for strengthening either club’s bullpen corps, of course. It’s unclear whether either club would spend what it takes to land a top-of-the-market closing option like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, but veteran closers like Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson are all available in free agency this winter and could be had on a shorter commitment. Sewald, José Leclerc, and Chris Martin are among the other relievers available who could impact a club’s late-inning mix and could be more affordable than other options available.

White Sox Acquire Cam Booser

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6:06pm: The trade has now been announced, with Booser headed to Chicago in exchange for right-hander Yhoiker Fajardo. To make room for Booser on the club’s 40-man roster, the White Sox designated Corey Julks for assignment. Fajardo, 18, posted a 3.91 ERA in 13 starts during the Dominican Summer League this year. Julks, 28, hit .214/.275/.306 in 66 games with the White Sox this year.

4:01pm: The White Sox and Red Sox are in agreement on a deal that will send left-hander Cam Booser to Chicago, according to a report from Robert Murray of Fansided. The return headed to Boston in exchange for Booser’s services is not yet clear, though James Fegan of Sox Machine reports that a minor league player is the return and Chris Cotillo of MassLive further clarifies that the return is expected to be a minor league pitcher.

Booser, 33 in May, made his big league debut with the Red Sox back in April. After kicking off his professional career with the Twins in 2013, he climbed the minor league ladder but hit a wall in High-A during the 2017 season. He eventually resurfaced in independent ball in 2021 and bounced between indy ball and the minor leagues for the Diamondbacks until joining the Red Sox organization for the 2023 season.

Once he finally made his big league debut last year, he pitched quite well for the club with a 3.38 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work with a 23.5% strikeout rate with an 8.7% walk rate. That was good for a solid 3.80 FIP, though an elevated 80% strand rate and a low 8.3% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio suggest the possibility of some regression in Booser’s profile as represented by a 3.92 SIERA and a 4.40 xFIP. Despite his somewhat questionable peripherals and an unusual path to the big leagues, however, Booser profiled as a quality middle relief option from the left side.

With Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson already added to the bullpen from the left side in Boston and Brennan Bernadino in the fold as a more established lefty option as well, Booser had become somewhat expendable for the Red Sox. That’s evidently led him to join the White Sox bullpen, where he joins former Yankees reliever Ron Marinaccio among external additions this winter. Booser figures to be much higher on the lefty relief depth chart in Chicago than he would’ve been in Boston, as he trades the competition of established veterans like Chapman and Wilson out for less established arms like Jared Shuster and Fraser Ellard.

Royals, Junior Fernández Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals have signed right-handed pitcher Junior Fernández to a minor league deal, the team announced. He last pitched in MLB during the 2022 season.

Fernández signed with the Cardinals as an international free agent in 2014 and made his MLB debut in St. Louis five years later. Unfortunately, he was never able to establish himself in the Cardinals bullpen. Over parts of four seasons with the club, he pitched to a 5.51 ERA and 4.78 SIERA in 50 2/3 innings of mostly low-leverage work.

The Cardinals designated Fernández for assignment in 2022, and the Pirates scooped him up off of waivers. He made three scoreless appearances for Pittsburgh at the end of the year, but it wasn’t enough to save him from another DFA. After a brief stint in the Yankees organization that offseason, Fernández was DFA’d once again. The Blue Jays were the next team to claim him, and, as he surely came to expect, the next team to DFA him just a few weeks later. This time, however, Fernández passed through waivers. The Blue Jays sent him outright to the minors, where he pitched to a 5.69 ERA and 5.92 FIP in 42 games with Triple-A Buffalo. Toronto released him before the year was up, and he spent the final weeks of the season pitching at Triple-A in the Nationals organization. His 2.79 ERA in 9 2/3 innings was more impressive, but his matching 13.6% strikeout and walk rates were ugly.

Following the 2023 campaign, Fernández elected free agency and signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines of NPB. Unfortunately, his career overseas was short-lived. An injury limited him to just two appearances in Japan before the Marines released him.

Now entering his age-28 season, Fernández will look to get back to the majors with the Royals. Whether or not he succeeds will likely depend on his arm health and velocity. In 2022, Fernández was averaging close to 99 mph and regularly hitting triple digits with both his sinker and his four-seam fastball. Despite his control issues, velocity like that is enough to make him an intriguing arm. However, his velocity was down a tick while he was pitching at Triple-A in 2023. Now, his mostly lost 2024 season makes it hard to predict what to expect from his arm in 2025. That said, the Royals presumably scouted him in the Dominican League, where he’s been pitching this winter. Despite his 6.43 ERA and 16.2% walk rate in 14 innings of work, they must have liked what they saw enough to bring him on board as bullpen depth for the 2025 season.

Yankees, Reds Swap Jose Trevino For Fernando Cruz

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The Yankees and Reds finalized a trade on Friday night that sends catcher Jose Trevino to Cincinnati for reliever Fernando Cruz and non-roster catcher Alex Jackson.

Trevino is on the move for the second time in his career. The Yankees landed him from the Rangers shortly after Opening Day 2022 in a deal that sent reliever Albert Abreu to Arlington. That was a win for the New York front office, as Trevino developed into a quality defensive catcher in the Bronx. Abreu, on the other hand, pitched seven times with the Rangers before they lost him on waivers.

The 2022 season has been Trevino’s best. He appeared in a career-high 115 games, hitting .248/.283/.388 through 353 plate appearances. Trevino led all catchers with 21 Defensive Runs Saved that season, earning an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove.

Trevino has opened each of the past two years as New York’s primary catcher. His playing time and offensive production have dropped, though he continues to grade very highly for his receiving skills. Trevino has only appeared in 129 games over the past two years. In 2023, that was largely the result of a ligament tear in his right wrist that necessitated season-ending surgery in July.

The 32-year-old stayed mostly heathy this past season. He missed a month between the All-Star Break and the middle of August because of a quad strain. Trevino was otherwise on the active roster but fell into a depth role. Rookie of the Year finalist Austin Wells is a superior offensive player who grades as an elite receiving catcher in his own right.

Trevino was limited to 62 starts behind the plate overall. He’d basically become a non-factor by the end of the year, as he appeared in just 14 games between his return from the injured list on August 15 and the end of the regular season. He only got two starts during the Yankees’ run to the World Series. He took 234 trips to the plate and hit .215/.288/.354 with eight home runs.

Part of the dip in playing time has been attributable to Trevino’s difficulty controlling the running game. According to Statcast, only Yasmani Grandal had a higher average pop time (throw time to second base on stolen base attempts) than Trevino’s 2.07 second mark. Opponents swiped 57 bases out of 70 attempts in his 544 1/3 innings. Trevino continues to grade exceptionally highly for his framing skills and blocking ability, so he remains a valuable defender, but the subpar arm strength has become an issue.

The Reds evidently placed a lot of value on those receiving skills. Trevino should back up Tyler Stephenson, who hit .258/.338/.444 with a career-high 19 homers this past season. Stephenson started 112 games and tallied a little more than 1000 innings. He didn’t play any first base in ’24 but has played there sporadically in prior seasons. Cincinnati could give Stephenson a few more modified rest days at first base or designated hitter if they’re comfortable with Trevino logging 70+ starts behind the dish.

Trevino has over five years of service time. MLTBR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.4MM salary during his last trip through the arbitration process. Taking that on pushes the team’s projected payroll to $104MM (courtesy of RosterResource). The Reds ended the ’23 campaign with a payroll around $100MM and have indicated they’re comfortable matching or exceeding that number.

Stephenson had been the only catcher on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster. They obviously needed to acquire a veteran backup, but it’s still surprising to see the Reds relinquish Cruz for one year of Trevino’s services. Cruz has been a fixture in Cincinnati’s bullpen for the last two years. He has scattershot command but elite bat-missing ability.

Cruz, a native of Puerto Rico, was drafted as an infielder back in 2007. He flamed out as a hitter and was out of affiliated ball entirely between 2016-21. Cruz converted to pitching in 2012 and continued to plug away, however, eventually catching the attention of Reds’ scouts in the independent ranks. He dominated Triple-A opponents in 2022 and earned his first major league call as a 32-year-old that September.

Typically, players who don’t reach the majors until they’re in their 30s are quickly dropped from the roster. Cruz pitched well in his late-season cameo, however, and the Reds kept him on their 40-man. He has topped 65 innings in each of the past two seasons, building from middle relief in 2023 to become one of David Bell’s more frequent leverage options in front of closer Alexis Díaz.

The bottom line results have not been great. Cruz has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both seasons. He owns a 4.52 ERA across 147 1/3 career innings. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA find him significantly more interesting than the actual run prevention would suggest — a testament to his gaudy swing-and-miss numbers.

Cruz has fanned over 35% of opponents in each of the last two seasons. He carries a cumulative 36.5% strikeout rate over that stretch. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman have posted a better mark. Spencer Strider, Kirby Yates, Garrett Crochet, Jeff Hoffman, Bryan Abreu, Paul Skenes and Tyler Glasnow round out the top 10. Cruz is similarly dominant on a per-pitch basis. His 16.7% swinging strike rate ranks fifth among that group — trailing Strider, Hader, Andrés Muñoz and Ryan Helsley.

Pitching isn’t solely about strikeouts, of course, but most pitchers who miss bats at those rates are impact arms. Cruz holds himself back to some extent by issuing too many free passes. He walked 12.2% of batters faced this year and has given out free passes to 11.4% of opponents in his career. That’s a concern, but it’s easy to see why the Yankees identified him as an upside play.

Cruz’s calling card is a low-80s splitter, which is one of the most effective pitches in the sport. Cruz used the offering a little more than 40% of the time this year. Opponents only made contact around 40% of the time they swung at it. Batters hit .116 against it. Cruz used it as the finishing pitch for 88 of his 109 strikeouts.

Exceptional as the splitter was, opponents teed off on his other two offerings — a 94 MPH four-seam fastball and a cutter that sits in the high 80s. Cruz has preferred to mix all three pitches rather than fully unleashing the splitter. Whether that’s because of his own comfort or the preference of Cincinnati’s coaching staff isn’t clear, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Yankees pushed him to lean more frequently on that pitch. New York allowed Tommy Kahnle to abandon his fastball and throw essentially all changeups for his entire playoff run, for instance.

Cruz has just over two years of big league service. He’s under club control for four seasons. The extended control window isn’t a huge factor for a pitcher who’ll turn 35 in March. It’s a boost in the short term, though, as the Yankees can plug him into the bullpen for around the league minimum salary in 2025.

Jackson, who turns 29 on Christmas, rounds out the return to backfill the catching depth. He signed a minor league contract with Cincinnati last month and will not occupy a 40-man roster spot. Jackson appeared in a career-high 58 games for the Rays last season, hitting .122 over 159 plate appearances. He’s a career .132/.224/.232 hitter over parts of five campaigns. Jackson should get a Spring Training invite, where he can compete with 29-year-old J.C. Escarra — who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t appeared in the majors — for the backup job behind Wells.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Trevino was being traded to Cincinnati. The Post’s Joel Sherman was first with the entire trade. Images courtesy of Imagn.

Dodgers, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers are in agreement with righty reliever Julian Fernández on a minor league contract, reports Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. The 29-year-old receives an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Fernández is working to return to the majors for the first time since 2021. He made six appearances for the Rockies that year, allowing eight runs across 6 2/3 innings. That remains his only big league experience. Colorado outrighted him off the 40-man roster in June 2022. Fernéandez spent time in Triple-A with the Blue Jays the following year.

The Dominican Republic native was out of affiliated ball in 2024. Fernández spent the year in Mexico. He had an excellent season with Veracruz, turning in a 1.82 earned run average through 34 2/3 frames. He struck out 32.1% of opposing hitters. Fernández has given up eight runs across 11 2/3 innings in the Dominican Winter League, but Dodger evaluators evidently remain intrigued by his stuff.

During his brief big league stint, Fernández flashed huge velocity. He averaged 99 MPH with his four-seam fastball. That hasn’t actually translated to many whiffs in the affiliated ranks. He has an average 24% strikeout rate and has walked nearly 11% of batters faced over parts of four Triple-A campaigns. Fernández has a 6.05 ERA in 80 1/3 innings at that level.

Blue Jays Sign Josh Walker

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed left-hander Josh Walker to a one-year split contract. Per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, the southpaw will make $760K, which is next year’s league minimum, for time spent in the majors. The Associated Press reports that he’ll be paid at a $180K rate while in the minors. Right-hander Hagen Danner has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Walker, 30, has a little bit of major league experience. He tossed 22 1/3 innings with the Mets over the past two seasons, allowing 6.45 earned runs per nine in that small sample. He struck out 22.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.7% clip. He was designated for assignment by the Mets in July and flipped to the Pirates, though the Bucs designated him for assignment shortly thereafter and eventually released him.

Those major league numbers aren’t especially impressive, but the Jays are likely attracted to his minor league work, where he has shown huge strikeout ability but also significant control issues. He has thrown 89 innings on the farm over the past three years with a 3.54 ERA, giving out walks to 12.7% of opponents but also punching them out at a huge 33.7% rate. The Jays were seemingly intrigued enough by those numbers to give Walker a 40-man roster spot.

Remaking the bullpen is an ongoing project for the Jays after the group let them down in 2024. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA this year, with only the Rockies posting a worse number in that category. Since the season ended, Génesis Cabrera and Jordan Romano were both cut from the roster and both have signed with other clubs already. The Jays re-signed Yimi García, who they had traded to the Mariners last year, and also acquired Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade.

Prior to this deal, the only lefty relievers on the roster were Brendon Little, Brandon Eisert and Easton Lucas. It’s a very inexperienced group, as none of those southpaws has even thrown 50 big league innings yet. Walker adds another lefty into that competition and he still has an option year remaining, as do the other three, so they might take turns moving between the big leagues and Triple-A throughout the year. Walker still has less than a year of service time, so he can be cheaply retained for many years to come if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Danner, 26, he was drafted as a catcher but struck out a lot in the lower levels of the minors and got moved to the mound. In 2021, he tossed 35 2/3 innings at High-A with a 2.02 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. That was his first professional season as a pitcher but he was already Rule 5 eligible due to the years he spent behind the plate. The Jays gave him a 40-man roster spot after that season to prevent him from being plucked away.

He has hit a few speed bumps since then. He spent most of 2022 on the injured list and only made four minor league appearances. In 2023, he was healthy enough to throw 28 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.81 ERA. His 31.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate were quite good but he allowed eight home runs. He also made his major league debut that year but only tossed one third of an inning before landing on the injured list due to an oblique strain. In 2024, he logged 34 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.15 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

Overall, the results haven’t been bad, but he hasn’t been able to pitch much due to the time spent catching and the health issues. He has just 114 1/3 professional innings on his ledger thus far and he has just one option year remaining.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Jays some time to see if there’s any trade interest in Danner.

Marlins Sign Eric Wagaman, Designate Vidal Bruján

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The Marlins announced they have signed infielder/outfielder Eric Wagaman to a one-year major league deal. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Salary figures for Wagaman weren’t reported but it’s likely near the major league minimum since the Paragon Sports International client just made his major league debut this year. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reported on the signing prior to the official announcement.

Wagaman, 27, was drafted by the Yankees and spent his entire career with that club until about a year ago, when the Angels plucked him away in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. After a strong season in the minors, the Angels called him up to the big leagues on September 10. He got into 18 games down the stretch as the club was playing out a losing season, stepping to the plate 74 times and hitting .250/.270/.403. He was non-tendered at the end of the year, sending him to free agency without being exposed to waivers.

That’s a very small sample size and the Marlins probably aren’t giving it much weight. He has 897 minor league plate appearances over the past three years, with some intriguing numbers in that larger sample. He hit 35 home runs, struck out just 16.9% of the time and drew walks at a 9.5% clip. He has a combined batting line of .276/.348/.473 over those three seasons, which translates to a 129 wRC+.

He also stole 26 bases in that stretch, getting caught seven times. Defensively, Wagaman was mostly a first baseman with the Yankees but the Angels fanned him out a bit, having him line up at first but also third base and the outfield corners this year.

The rebuilding Marlins have very little settled in their position player mix. At last year’s deadline, they traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz. This offseason, they’ve sent Jake Burger packing as well. None of the position players on the roster have even four years of major league service time. Jesús Sánchez is the only guy with more than three, while Nick Fortes and Derek Hill are the only guys with more than two.

In short, there’s very little written in stone. Sánchez will likely have a corner outfield job but is a candidate to be traded if the Marlins get an offer they like. Connor Norby, Jonah Bride, Griffin Conine, Deyvison De Los Santos, Kyle Stowers and others are candidates for jobs in the corners but they are all fairly inexperienced. Wagaman has a full slate of options, so he can provide minor league depth at various spots or battle for a big league job. He has just a few days of service time and can be cheaply retained into the future if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Bruján, 27 in February, was once a top 100 prospect but he hasn’t yet lived up to that hype. He was praised for his speed, athleticism, plate discipline and ability to play multiple positions. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to do enough damage with the bat to make an impact. He has stepped to the plate 550 times over the past four seasons, with five home runs and a .189/.261/.270 batting line. He has swiped 14 bags but he’s also been caught 13 times.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Fish some time to see if any club is interested in taking a flier on Bruján.

For what it’s worth, the minor league results have continued to be good, even as he has floundered in the majors. He has just over a thousand Triple-A plate appearances over the past four years and has slashed .272/.357/.451 in those for a wRC+ of 113. He is out of options but he has less than three years of service time, meaning he can provide four years of club control if any team is willing to give him a roster spot. He has played every position except catcher, giving him plenty of ways to theoretically slot into a club’s plans.

Rangers Sign Hoby Milner

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The Rangers announced the signing of lefty reliever Hoby Milner to a one-year contract. Texas designated former top prospect Owen White for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Milner, a client of MVP Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $2.5MM. He can earn another $500K in incentives — $100K each for reaching 35 and 45 appearances, followed by $150K bonuses at 55 and 65 games.

Milner is a Dallas native who attended the University of Texas. The former Longhorn began his career with the Phillies, who selected him in the seventh round of the 2012 draft. Milner had brief MLB stints with the Phillies, Rays and Angels before finding his way to Milwaukee on a minor league contract after the 2020 season.

The low-slot southpaw had a solid four years with the Brew Crew. He posted interesting strikeout and walk numbers in 2021, so the Brewers retained him despite a 5.40 earned run average. That was a wise call, as Milner was a key piece of Craig Counsell’s bullpen between 2022-23. He combined for a 2.79 ERA across 129 innings over that stretch. Only 30 relievers around the league logged a heavier workload. Milner fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 5.3% rate. His arm angle flummoxed left-handed hitters, who managed a .199/.259/.284 line across 223 plate appearances.

Milner’s results regressed in 2024. He was tagged for a 4.73 ERA while lefties had a markedly improved .286/.290/.467 slash over 109 trips to the plate. Yet Milner ran an impressive 27:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while he held the platoon advantage.

His peripherals more broadly remained strong. He punched out nearly 24% of batters faced and kept the ball on the ground more than half the time that opponents made contact. He tied his career high with 64 2/3 innings. The ERA jump was a result of a huge spike in opposing hitters’ average on balls in play, as well as a significant drop in the number of runners Milner left on base.

The Brewers nevertheless decided to move on instead of tendering him an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. That worked out reasonably well for Milner, who finds a guaranteed contract at nearly the same rate with his hometown team for his age-34 season. It’s the second bullpen pickup for the Rangers in as many weeks. They added Jacob Webb, who had somewhat surprisingly been non-tendered by the Orioles, on a $1.25MM pact. GM Chris Young and his staff need to add multiple arms to a ’pen that could lose each of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and José Ureña to free agency. They’ll start with a pair of affordable veterans who can work in the middle innings.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report Milner was signing with Texas on a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $2.5MM guarantee. The Associated Press reported the incentive structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Phillies Sign Max Kepler

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Rangers Designate Owen White For Assignment

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The Rangers officially announced their signing of left-hander Hoby Milner today, which was reported earlier this week. Right-hander Owen White has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

White, 25, was one of the top pitching prospects in the league as of two years ago but his results have tailed off significantly since then. A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, White’s professional debut was delayed by 2019 Tommy John surgery and then the pandemic taking out the minor leagues in 2020. He quickly made up for lost time once he got back on the mound. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 115 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.42 earned run average. He struck out 34.1% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.5% of the time.

That strong performance made him a consensus top 100 prospect going into 2023. But as alluded to earlier, he’s been hit around badly since then. He has allowed 13 earned runs in his first seven big league innings, meaning he has an unsightly 16.71 ERA at the moment.

That’s obviously a tiny sample size but the results in the minors have been bad as well. White has thrown 151 1/3 innings for Triple-A Round Rock over the past two years with a 5.41 ERA. The Express play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his 17.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate for that club have both been subpar.

The Rangers tried moving White to a relief role midway through the most recent season, with some encouragement there. He tossed 18 innings over this final 13 Triple-A appearances with a 5.50 ERA. His 25.6% strikeout rate was a nice jump, but he was still giving out free passes at a high clip of 12.8%.

White is down to just one more option year at this point, so 2025 was shaping up to be a make-or-break sort of season. But with his declining numbers and a move to the bullpen, his prospect shine has worn off enough that he is being bumped off the roster today.

DFA limbo normally last one week, though recent years have seen that clock paused between Christmas and New Year’s Day. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later.

That gives the Rangers some time to call around and see if there’s any trade interest for White. Obviously, the recent results have tamped down his value, but some club might take a shot based on his past prospect pedigree. With one option year remaining, he could be stashed in the minors by a club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.

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