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Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate: Michael A. Taylor

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At the end of September last year, as the season was winding down, Michael A. Taylor was about a week away from hitting free agency. The Royals, however, were determined to prevent that from happening and gave him a $9MM extension that would keep him around for another two years.

Taylor has never really done too much with his bat, finishing the 2021 season with a career batting line of .239/.293/.386 for a wRC+ of just 79. But the Royals were surely motivated to lock him up because of his tremendous defense. Taylor ended up finishing first among MLB center fielders in the Fielding Bible’s voting for 2021. His 15 Outs Above Average last year were the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Manuel Margot’s 16. His 19 Defensive Runs Saved were also second in the league, trailing only the 20 racked up by Carlos Correa. His 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was easily the best, well ahead of Matt Chapman’s 8.7.

Kansas City making defense a priority made sense for a couple of reasons. First, the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium make it so that defense is always important for the team. Secondly, the rebuilding club was set to feature a number of young and inexperienced pitchers, making any extra outs very important for building confidence and limiting workloads.

However, Taylor has bucked his career trends in a couple of ways here in 2022. For one thing, he’s having easily the best year of his career in terms of his bat. Through 47 games, he’s got an 11.2% walk rate, a great improvement over his 7% career mark. Similarly, he’s striking out in 22.4% of his plate appearances, well below his 29.9% career rate. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .272/.355/.401, which amounts to a wRC+ of 119. Prior to this year, Taylor’s wRC+ has been 80 or below in every season except for a 104 back in 2017.

But on the other hand, his defense doesn’t seem to be quite as elite as last year, at least in the eyes of the advanced metrics. OAA currently has him at 1 for the season, DRS at 3 and UZR at -0.2. Defensive metrics are notoriously fickle, meaning it’s possible that this is just small sample noise. Though Taylor is also 31 years old now, making it possible that 2021 was a peak that he’s started to come down from.

The Royals have a record of 23-42, one of the worst in the league, lining them up to be clear sellers at this year’s trade deadline. Taylor doesn’t absolutely have to be traded since his contract goes through 2023. The Royals could keep him around for another year and hope that they have better luck next year in their attempts to transition from rebuilding to contending. But there’s also an argument to be made that Taylor’s value is at its peak. He’s never been hitting anywhere near this level before and there’s a chance his excellent defensive skills have started to wane.

There’s also the possibility that two months of improved results with the bat won’t compel any team to part with significant prospects that would entice the Royals to pull a trigger on a trade. But then again, teams in search of help in center field don’t have a lot of options. Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds have been constantly in trade rumors over the past year, but their respective teams have apparently been steadfast in maintaining high asking prices in any trade discussions. The Marlins have reportedly been making a strong push for Ramon Laureano, but without successfully getting the A’s to budge thus far. There aren’t many options beyond that group that are both exciting and available.

Coupled with that low supply is strong demand. The Marlins have been trying to upgrade in center field for a long time but without finding a deal to their liking. The Brewers just cut ties with Lorenzo Cain, leaving them with Tyrone Taylor and Jonathan Davis as their center field tandem. Cody Bellinger has rebounded from his nightmare 2021 but is still having a below-average season at the plate. The Astros and Phillies are getting okay results this year from Chas McCormick and Odubel Herrera, respectively, but could still look to supplement there. Perhaps the Yankees will look to bump Aaron Judge back into a corner outfield role to reduce his daily wear and tear. There’s also the possibility some team that doesn’t strictly need a center fielder just wants one to give their regular outfielders some occasional down time.

The Royals will have a decision to make between now and the August 2 trade deadline. Do they hang onto Taylor for another year or try to cash him in for some prospects while his value is high? Even if they lean towards the former option, it’s possible that the market forces push some team into making them an offer that makes them change their mind.

Trade Candidate: Brandon Drury

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Very little has gone right for Cincinnati Reds in 2022. The club entered the season with hopes of competing, but those hopes were on shaky footing due to some cost-saving moves over the winter that softened the depth of the roster. Once the season began, the injury bug bit them hard, putting pressure on that depth, which the roster hasn’t been able to withstand. Their record is currently 23-39, ahead of just Washington among National League clubs. One small silver lining in all this, however, is that these injuries created an opening for Brandon Drury, who is having the best season of his career.

Drafted by Atlanta in the 13th round in 2010, Drury was sent to the Diamondbacks as a prospect, as part of the deal that sent Justin Upton the other way. He made his big league debut with Arizona in 2015 and showed some promise over his first few seasons. From 2015-2017 with the Snakes, he got into 289 games and hit 31 home runs, slashing .271/.319/.448. That wasn’t elite production, with his wRC+ actually coming in slightly below average at 95, but still encouraging for a player in his age 22-24 seasons. He also provided the Diamondbacks with defensive versatility, as he spent time at every infield position and the outfield corners.

There was enough there to intrigue the Yankees, who acquired Drury prior to the 2018 season. Unfortunately for them, this was the beginning of what would end up being a miserable three-year stretch for him. Drury dealt with blurred vision and migraines, which caused him to miss time and struggle to the point that the Yankees optioned him to the minors. While he hit well on the farm, he struggled mightily in the majors, hitting .176/.263/.275 in 18 games with the Yanks.

Despite those struggles, the Blue Jays decided to take a chance on him, acquiring him from the Yankees in the J.A. Happ trade, ending Drury’s time with the Yanks after just a few months. After just eight games with the Canadian birds, Drury faced another setback, breaking his hand and heading to the injured list again. In 2019, Drury was able to stay healthy but still struggled, hitting .218/.262/.380 for a 66 wRC+ in 120 games. In 2020, the struggles got even worse, with Drury hitting .152/.184/.174 in 21 games, producing a wRC+ of -10 and getting designated for assignment toward the end of the season.

Despite that abysmal three-year stretch, the Mets decided to take a flier on him, signing him to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 campaign. After the big league club suffered a pile of injuries to their position player mix, they called on Drury in May, who was having a nice showing in Triple-A. He would end up holding himself well in a utility role, playing 51 games while taking the field at first, second and third base, as well as the outfield corners. He hit .274/.307/.476 for a wRC+ of 114 in 88 plate appearances. Despite that solid showing, he was designated for assignment as the season was winding down in October.

A similar situation played out for Drury this year, as he signed a minor league deal with the Reds in March. A slew of injuries created a need for Drury, who has taken the opportunity and ran with it. He’s now played 53 games with the Reds, just beyond his total with the Mets last year. However, it’s clearly been a full-time role this time around, as his 218 plate appearances more than double his 88 from last year. In that time, he’s hit 12 home runs, a number bested by only 12 other National League hitters this year. His overall slash is .269/.335/.508 for a wRC+ of 129. He’s already produced 1.4 wins above replacement this year, according to FanGraphs, with almost two-thirds of the season still remaining. This doesn’t seem to just be good luck either, as his .297 BABIP on the year is just barely ahead of his .294 career mark, and his Statcast page has plenty of those healthy red hues. Defensively, Drury has largely played second and third, helping the club cover for extended absences from Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas, though he’s also made cameos at shortstop and first base.

Taking all of this into consideration, Drury’s true nature is very difficult to peg. A pessimist could point to his dismal stretch from 2018-2020 and dismiss this year’s showing as a small-sample hot streak. He’s also a mere rental, as he began this season with 5 years and one day of service time. Since he cracked Cincy’s Opening Day roster, he will just barely eclipse six years at the end of this season. But on the other hand, he showed enough promise earlier in his career for three different teams to trade for him, clearly demonstrating that this breakout was considered possible in the past. Now he’s delivering on that promise and should hold plenty of appeal to competing teams, especially those with budgetary constraints. The financials of Drury’s deal weren’t reported at the time, though his Baseball Reference page lists his salary as the $700K league minimum.

What Drury also has going for him as a trade candidate is his versatility. Since he can play multiple infield spots, there are potentially many teams who could fit him into their plans. The Angels have gotten very little out of their middle infield this year and could slot Drury in at second base. Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia have both struggled mightily, leaving the White Sox with the keystone as an obvious area to upgrade. The Dodgers love adding underrated bench players and have watched Justin Turner slouch through most of the season so far. Alec Bohm is still struggling in Philly, and since they’ve gone over the luxury tax for the first time, Drury’s low salary could be extra appealing to them. It’s also possible that an injury to an infielder creates a need on a team that didn’t previously have one, like when this week’s Ozzie Albies injury suddenly created a huge hole at second base in Atlanta. Though one team that almost certainly won’t be in the mix is the Blue Jays, as Drury is apparently unvaccinated and isn’t eligible to cross the border. Drury won’t complete remake any of these teams on his own, but role players like this can sometimes have huge impacts. Last year’s marquee deadline trade sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, but the Braves won the World Series after acquiring lesser-known players like Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario.

Even if Drury does garner interest at the deadline, it likely won’t lead to a massive return. Strong season aside, he’s got enough warts on his resume to prevent acquiring teams from shelling out any kind elite prospect package. Still, for the Reds to get any kind of trade return out of a player who signed a minor league deal when Spring Training was already underway, that’s one nice development in a season that hasn’t had too many.

Diamondbacks, Ketel Marte Working On Extension

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The Diamondbacks and Ketel Marte are discussing the possibility of a contract extension, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). No deal is imminent, though Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports that the two sides are discussing adding three years of team control to his current contract at a total value of roughly $75MM.

Marte is already under contract for the below-market sum of $8.4MM for 2022, with the Dbacks holding team options for 2023 and 2024 at $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Obviously, those numbers come in far shy the $25MMper annum he would theoretically earn in his age 31-33 seasons under the terms reported by Heyman. And yet, it’s still a number that could be considered a discount, given Marte’s proven ceiling.

Marte has been floated as a potential trade candidate for much of the offseason, but his value has been somewhat difficult to peg because he’s so eminently affordable for the next three campaigns thanks to the extension he signed in March 2018. At the time that he signed the deal, Marte had not yet entered his arbitration seasons, and he’d already been dealt once in what turned out to be one of the more interesting swaps of the past decade. In the deal, Arizona acquired righty Taijuan Walker with the 23-year-old Marte in exchange for an unproven Mitch Haniger, a post-breakout Jean Segura, and southpaw Zac Curtis. Notably, it was one of the very first moves of GM Mike Hazen’s tenure in Arizona.

Though Marte was a high-end prospect, Walker was viewed as the real get at the time. Marte had yet to fully establish himself over parts of two seasons with the Mariners. His extension, then, came after just one additional year with the Diamondbacks, one in which the switch-hitter managed only 255 plate appearances. Marte’s career triple-slash line was just .265/.319/.361 (84 wRC+) with eight homers and 22 steals over his first 968 major league PAs. And yet, Hazen didn’t blink in locking him up for the next seven years.

Hazen’s prescience paid off as Marte broke out in a big way during the 2019 season, finishing fourth in MVP voting. Marte absolutely leveled up to a .329/.389/.592 line over 628 plate appearances, chipping in 36 doubles, nine triples, and 32 home runs, good for 6.9 rWAR/7.0 fWAR. After taking a step back in 2020, Marte posted a reasonable facsimile of his breakout campaign last year with a 139 wRC+, but he was only able to stay on the field for 90 games.

An extension now would be an interesting gambit for the Diamondbacks, considering the injuries that have followed Marte throughout his career. And while he’s a multi-positional standout – and somewhat of an oddity in that he has more-or-less split his career playing time between second base, shortstop, and centerfield – his glovework has largely earned subpar marks everywhere on the diamond except the keystone.

Add to the total picture Marte’s tremendous, if surprising offensive ceiling, and he’s not a player that takes easily to projections. One could argue that the Diamondbacks would be better off waiting on extending Marte to see if he can produce another full season like 2019, given that he’s already under team control for three more seasons. By the time a new extension would kick in, Marte would be on the other side of his prime.

Perhaps they want to put an end to any trade rumblings and commit to Marte as a centerpiece of their offense for the next half decade. Hazen’s been right about Marte twice before, so the pair are probably due the benefit of the doubt.

Besides, Arizona’s future payroll is totally clear. They have nobody currently on the books for after the 2024 season, when Marte’s current contract runs out.

When he’s right, Marte brings a plus ability to put the ball in play, above-average power, above-average speed, and enough positional versatility to be an asset, at least in a game-to-game basis. It’s easy to understand why the Diamondbacks would want him at the forefront of their future endeavors.

Trade Candidate: Randal Grichuk

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Just over one year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays signed George Springer to a six-year, $150MM contract, the largest deal in franchise history. After that signing, it was speculated by many that a trade could follow, given that they already had three other capable outfielders in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk. Instead, they ended up hanging onto all four players, which may have been the wise choice, as Springer spent significant time on the IL, appearing in just 78 games and only playing center field in 40 of those.

In his absence, center field was largely manned by Grichuk, who spent parts of 96 games there, including 87 starts. Unfortunately, he had arguably the worst season of his career. He’s never been an on-base guy, with a 6.3% walk rate back in 2015 marking his career high. But he slipped even lower in 2021, landing at 5.0%, his lowest since his debut season in 2014. On the positive side, he dropped his strikeout rate to 20.9%, a career best. He also still showed some power by hitting 22 home runs. His center field defense was passable, being rated as just below average by all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. But in the end, his line for the season was .241/.281/.423. His wRC+ of 85 was five points lower than his previous career low, and his 0.4 fWAR was his lowest since his 47-game debut in 2014.

Back in early December, it was reported that the Blue Jays and Brewers had discussions on a trade centered around Grichuk and Jackie Bradley Jr.,  before the Brewers and Red Sox agreed to a deal with a framework of Bradley and Hunter Renfroe. This suggests the Jays have at least some openness to moving on from the two years and $20.67MM remaining on the extension they inked with Grichuk in April of 2019.

Trading Grichuk now is awkward for a couple reasons, even beyond the lockout. His value is surely at a low ebb, given the disappointing season he just had in 2021. There’s also the fact that the club would be lacking in outfield depth without him. Outside of the aforementioned group of Springer, Gurriel and Hernandez, the only other regular outfielder on the 40-man roster is Josh Palacios, who also missed significant time with injury last year and has only played 16 career Triple-A games and 13 MLB games. Cavan Biggio has seen a bit of time in the outfield, but he’s still pencilled in for significant infield time at the moment. He also dealt with injuries last year, appearing in just 79 games. However, the team could also add some outfield depth after a Grichuk trade, perhaps by bringing back Corey Dickerson, who recently spoke highly of his time with the Jays last year.

One thing that could potentially work in the Jays’ favour is the lack of available free agent center fielders, with the best remaining options being bench/platoon types like Brett Gardner or Kevin Pillar. Grichuk’s poor 2021 notwithstanding, center fielders who play cromulent defense and reliably hit 20-plus home runs per season don’t grow on trees. Teams with designs on competing and questions in center field could perhaps take a chance on him, especially considering he isn’t likely to demand much of a return. The Phillies need help in the outfield and elsewhere, but likely don’t have a ton of money or young talent to trade. The Rockies have designs on competing and need outfield upgrades, having been connected to Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber this offseason. If they fail to lure in one of those high profile options, they’ll have to consider alternatives. The Marlins are known to be looking for center field help and don’t usually throw around big bucks in free agency, making them theoretical suitors for a lower-cost option like Grichuk.

Given Grichuk’s contract and mediocre 2021 season, it’s unlikely the Jays are able to line up a trade during what will surely be a frenzy of transactions between the theoretical end of the lockout and the beginning of the season. However, if they can, it would free up some payroll space for them to upgrade their infield and pitching staff, as they look to build off a 91-win campaign in 2021.

Trade Candidate: Manuel Margot

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Kevin Kiermaier has been a fixture in Rays-related trade rumors for some years now, and this trend continued when Tampa reportedly discussed Kiermaier with the Phillies and other teams just prior to the start of the lockout.  Kiermaier’s contract (a six-year, $53.5MM extension signed in March 2017) is relatively outsized by the Rays’ modest payroll standards, and as Kiermaier is now entering the final year of that deal, there stands a greater chance that a team in need of center field help will finally step in to make Kiermaier off the Rays’ books.

Any number of teams stand out as possible fits in a Kiermaier trade based on a variety of factors, including how much of the $14.5MM still owed to Kiermaier can best be absorbed into another team’s payroll.  It’s possible Tampa Bay might be open to a deal that sees the Rays accept a minimal prospect return in exchange for a team simply taking all of Kiermaier’s remaining salary, or perhaps the Rays might add a prospect along with Kiermaier to facilitate this semi-salary dump.

But, there’s another wrinkle that could be involved in any Kiermaier negotiations.  If such talks involve how much of Kiermaier’s salary will be covered by either side, it seems likely that at least one team has asked the Rays “hey, what about your other less-expensive center fielder entering his last year of team control?”

That would be Manuel Margot, scheduled for free agency following the 2022 season and projected to earn $5MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Seen as a natural center field successor to Kiermaier in the event of a trade, Margot would likely be a replacement for 2022 alone, given how the Rays generally only look to extend players in the early stages of their careers.  If Margot isn’t a long-term answer, therefore, he himself stands out as a trade chip for a Rays front office that has traditionally been open to dealing almost anyone on their roster.

Margot is no stranger to switching teams, having already been part of two prominent trades in his career.  The outfielder was part of the four-player package dealt from the Red Sox to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel in November 2015, and then Padres then shipped him to Tampa almost exactly two years ago to the day.  That deal saw the Padres acquire Emilio Pagan for Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll, and it’s a trade that now looks like a solid win for the Rays given how Pagan has struggled over his two years in San Diego.

Margot, meanwhile, has contributed 2.0 fWAR over his 172 games in a Rays uniform, largely due to his excellent defense.  As per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, in fact, Margot was the best overall defensive outfielder in baseball last year, with a league-best +16 OAA.  The UZR/150 (+3.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (+13) metrics largely back up that assessment, as Margot played 656 2/3 innings in right field, 182 innings in center, and 122 2/3 innings in left in 2021.

Offensively, Margot is much more of a mixed bag.  His 95 wRC+ and 96 OPS+ over his two seasons in Tampa is only slightly below average, and a .258/.317/.375 slash line over 623 plate appearances is passable considering what Margot brings to the table with his glovework.  Margot also doesn’t strike out often, and has excellent speed, even if that speed has only translated into moderate success on the basepaths (25 steals in 37 chances with the Rays).

In general, however, Margot isn’t a major threat at the dish.  He hasn’t shown much power or an ability to consistently draw walks, and while Margot may make plenty of contact, the quality of that contact is well below-average.  Margot’s hard-hit ball rates and barrel rates have both been subpar every season from 2017-21.  As one might expect from a right-handed bat, Margot’s career splits against southpaws (.760 OPS) are better than his numbers against righty pitching (.663 OPS).

All in all, Margot may not be an ideal fit as an everyday outfielder, but he is an ideal fourth outfielder or platoon partner.  His ability to play all over the outfield makes Margot a particularly valuable piece for a Rays team that values flexibility, as Margot is a natural complement to the left-handed hitting Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Brett Phillips (plus Margot has also spelled the righty-swinging Randy Arozarena on occasion).

While he might be a good roster fit for the Rays, however, is Margot a fit for $5MM?  That projected figure would represent the fifth-highest 2022 salary on Tampa Bay’s books, behind Kiermaier, Corey Kluber ($8MM), Mike Zunino ($7MM) and Tyler Glasnow’s $5.8MM arbitration projection.  Since the Rays are always keeping a close eye on their budget, Margot’s $5MM figure may be deemed too pricey for what he brings in a backup outfield role.

Phillips, it should be noted, has hit .204/.301/.421 in 351 PA over the last two seasons.  It isn’t exactly an offensive breakout, but it does represent a 101 wRC+/102 OPS+ that is at least a tick higher than Margot, and Phillips also brings comparable fielding and speed.

Top prospect Josh Lowe is also waiting in the wings, after playing his first two MLB games last season.  Lowe is eyed as the longer-term answer in center field anyway, and seems likely to get a good chunk of playing time in 2022 regardless of who may or may not still be around in the Rays’ outfield.

There would be risk in counting on Lowe and Phillips to handle center field in the event of another Kiermaier absence, as Kiermaier’s well-documented injury history means that Tampa Bay simply can’t count on him for a full season.  Arozarena or even switch-hitter Vidal Brujan could be deployed in center field in a pinch, to add a right-handed element to a center field mix that would be lefty-heavy if Margot wasn’t around.  We also can’t rule out the possibility that the Rays could trade Margot and then acquire another outfielder in a future move, finding another Margot-esque player on the market available at a lower cost.

As mentioned earlier, you really can’t rule much out when it comes to potential Rays trades.  It stands to reason that Kiermaier would be the preferred trade chip, yet if the questions about his health and salary prove to be too much of an obstacle, Tampa Bay might pivot to the next name down on the center field depth chart.  Even if Margot lacks Kiermaier’s upside as an everyday player, his lower salary and comparable skillset would probably appeal to roughly the same number of outfield-needy teams.  If anything, Margot’s lower salary might even bring more teams into the mix.

Trade Candidate: Anthony Santander

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After getting limited big league playing time in 2017 and 2018, Anthony Santander showed signs of breaking out in 2019. Just 24 years old at the time, he hit 20 home runs in 93 games, slashing .261/.297/.476. The lack of walks kept his wRC+ just below league average at 97, but given his youth, power and ability to hit from both sides of the plate, there was a lot to feel good about.

In the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, he took his game up a notch. He improved his walk rate from 4.7% to 6.1%, still below average, but progress nonetheless. His strikeout rate dropped from 21.2% to 15.2%, and he hit 11 home runs in just 37 games, slashing .261/.315/.575 for a wRC+ of 130.

Unfortunately, 2021 was a step backwards, with multiple trips to the IL limiting his playing time and production. In 110 games, he still showed his power potential with 18 home runs, but his walk rate dropped to 5.3% and his strikeout rate ticked up to 23.1%. The defensive metrics also largely viewed him as below average, after being near or above in the previous two seasons. He finished the year with a wRC+ of 92 and 0.6 fWAR.

The Orioles are deep in rebuilding mode, having finished below .500 for five straight seasons and last in the AL East for four of those, with their lone step out of the basement being when the Red Sox slipped to just one game behind the O’s in the shortened 2020 campaign. Although the farm system is now well regarded and has many top prospects nearing MLB readiness, there’s still a long path ahead to competitiveness, as the club finished last year with a record of 52-110, 39 games behind the fourth place Blue Jays.

Santander has three years of club control left and can be retained by Baltimore through the 2024 season. Although it’s possible the club is rebuilt by then, it would also make sense for them to entertain trade scenarios. Even if they are capable of contending in the 2024 season, Santander will be in his final year of control and turn 30 in October of that year. For a club clearly prioritizing the long term, it would be logical to consider a swap that brings back players that can help beyond that three-year timeframe. The O’s also have Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays likely to be occupying two of the three outfield spots on a regular basis, meaning that dealing Santander could free up one slot for the team to give some playing time to other options, such as DJ Stewart, Ryan McKenna, Yusniel Diaz or Kyle Stowers.

The Orioles don’t need to rush into a deal, as Santander isn’t breaking the bank. He qualified for arbitration last year as a Super Two, earning a salary of $2.1MM, and has already agreed to a contract of $3.15MM for this year. Given his down year in 2021, it makes sense for the club to hang onto him for now, hoping he can get back to the form he showed in 2020 before dealing him at the trade deadline or even next winter.

Santander played a bit of center field in 2019 but is primarily a corner outfielder. Any team that needs help in the outfield but isn’t likely to splurge on an expensive free agent like Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber or Seiya Suzuki could be intrigued, especially if he’s healthy and playing up to his potential this year.

The Rockies are looking for outfielders, having been connected to Bryant and Schwarber this offseason. The Padres need outfield help and might be facing a budget crunch after going over the luxury tax line last year and still not finding a taker for Eric Hosmer’s contract. The Guardians certainly need outfielders and almost never land high-paid free agents, plus Cleveland has a bundle of young and controllable arms that would surely appeal to a Baltimore team desperate for pitching. The Giants have been connected to Suzuki but are apparently looking to avoid big free agent expenditures and could pivot to other options if they’re outbid. The Phillies have Bryce Harper in right but could use upgrades in center and left — trading for someone like Santander could allow them to spend more on other areas, such as the infield and bullpen.

Clubs like the White Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Braves could also make sense, as well as a handful of other teams, depending on what other transactions take place in the coming months. There’s also the possibility of further suitors emerging as the season progresses, if injuries create a need on a team that isn’t an obvious fit at the moment.

Trade Candidate: Carlos Santana

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Carlos Santana was an above average hitter in every season of the first decade of his career. In his first taste of the big leagues, 2010, he only played 46 games but knocked six homers and walked more than he struck out, slashing .260/.401/.467 for a wRC+ of 141. In each of the next nine seasons, he played at least 143 games, hit at least 19 home runs and never had a walk rate lower than 13.2% or a wRC+ lower than 108.

In 2020, his age-34 season, things didn’t go so smooth, as he hit just .199/.349/.350, wRC+ of 99. However, there were still reasons for optimism. Firstly, it was a small sample of just 60 games, due to the pandemic. Secondly, the walk rate was still excellent, coming in at 18.4%. Thirdly, his .212 batting average on balls in play was well below his previous seasons, suggesting that perhaps bad luck was dragging him down somewhat.

The Royals seemingly favored that optimistic view, as they beat the market and signed Santana to a two-year contract with a $17.5MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season. At the time, the club had posted a losing record in four straight seasons, but believed the time was right to act aggressive in trying to bolster a young core and attempt to open a competitive window.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan for Santana or the team. Although the walks were still there, as evidenced by his 13.1% rate, his line of .214/.319/.342 only amounted to a wRC+ of 83. The BABIP rebounded, but only slightly, to .227. As for the team, they finished well out of contention with a record of 74-88.

The Royals now have a bit of a crowded infield mix for a few reasons. While Adalberto Mondesi was on the shelf last year, Nicky Lopez took over the shortstop job, pushing Mondesi to third base upon his return. That pushed Hunter Dozier into spending some time at first base and the corner outfield spots. Then there’s the looming presence of top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto. Witt should eventually be playing regularly at shortstop or third base, which could push Mondesi into some time at DH, or push Lopez to second, pushing Whit Merrifield into the outfield, which bumps someone else into DH time.

Pratto, however, is a more direct source of pressure on Santana, as he is almost exclusively a first baseman, playing just three games in the outfield last year. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Pratto hit 36 home runs with a line of .265/.385/.602, wRC+ of 156.

That crowded position player mix makes Santana a clear trade candidate, given that he has just one year and $10.5MM remaining on his contract. The trouble for the Royals lies both in that they would be trading low on Santana and also that there are other first base options available to those teams looking for one. The free agent market features Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo as the high profile names, along with other options such as Daniel Vogelbach, Brad Miller, Albert Pujols and many more. On the trade front, Matt Olson is widely expected to be traded after the lockout. Luke Voit could be on the move if the Yankees find another option. Even if the Royals want to go the route of including a prospect to help stimulate a Santana trade, they’d be competing with the Padres who are known to be trying to take the same approach with Eric Hosmer.

It might be a challenge to hastily work out a deal during the transaction frenzy that will surely take place between whenever the lockout ends and the season gets underway. Perhaps the best path forward for the Royals is to hold onto Santana and hope that he can get things back on track, either to help the team compete or to rebuild trade value. He was dealing with a quad issue at times last year, which he has now recovered from, but he will turn 36 in April, making it harder to expect perfect health and ideal production going forward. Though late career bounceback campaigns are certainly possible, as Joey Votto just showed in his age-37 season.

Trade Candidate: Didi Gregorius

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There’s no denying that Didi Gregorius had a rough campaign in 2021, as he struggled on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he hit .209/.270/.370, resulting in a wRC+ of just 68, the lowest such mark of his career, outside of an eight-game cup of coffee in his 2012 debut. On the defensive side of things, all the advanced metrics agreed that he wasn’t at his best, as his DRS was -10, his UZR was -2.6 and his OAA was -17.

Those struggles were significant enough that he may not have a firm grip on the Phillies’ shortstop job in 2022. In a year-end press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had this to say on the matter: “It very well could be him. But he knows, we’ve had a discussion with him that he needs to be better. And we’re in a position where we also are going to be open-minded to what’s going to take place at shortstop next year. It could be internal, could be him if he comes back. …. Maybe it is him. He’ll come in (next season) in shape, but he’s not guaranteed — and he’s been told — that he’s for sure the shortstop. It doesn’t mean he can’t play other positions for us too, and maybe we’ll have a DH that’ll be a part of our club too.”

If the club no longer views Gregorius as their answer at shortstop, that raises multiple possibilities going forward, as Dombrowski laid out. As for the “internal” option he mentioned, the most likely candidate there is Bryson Stott, who spent the bulk of last year cruising through Double-A pitching. In 80 games there, he hit .301/.368/.481, for a wRC+ of 130. After getting promoted to Triple-A, he got into 10 games there and hit .303/.439/.394. In 26 games at the Arizona Fall League, he put up a line of .318/.445/.489.

It certainly seems feasible that Stott could join the big league club in 2022 and bump Sir Didi off his throne and to another position. With Jean Segura at second base, Gregorius could potentially help out at third. Alec Bohm also struggled in 2021, but should be given a chance to rebound based on his youth, prospect pedigree and excellent rookie season in 2020. If the NL adds the DH, as Dombrowski alluded to, that could lead to Gregorius being used in utility role, playing various infield positions as other players are rotated through the DH slot, in addition to seeing some time at DH himself.

But Dombrowski also said that Gregorius could be the shortstop “if he comes back,” seemingly implying that there’s a chance Gregorius is wearing a different jersey in 2022. Despite a legendary crop of superstar free agent shortstops, there are a handful of teams that have stayed out of the sweepstakes thus far and could potentially be interested in Gregorius. He has just one year and $15.25MM remaining on his contract and is about to turn 32, meaning a return to his previous form is certainly not out of the question.

Coming into the offseason, the Yankees were widely expected to be in the hunt for a big-ticket shortstop acquisition after moving Gleyber Torres over to second base. However, they have been rumored to be eschewing a large expenditure in that area, reportedly believing that prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza can provide them with an internal solution. But Volpe is yet to play above High-A and Peraza has only eight games of Triple-A experience. Bringing Gregorius back to the Bronx would be a fun story and also make some sense, as he could diversify a righty-heavy lineup with his lefty bat while holding down shortstop until one of the kids takes his spot.

The Astros have taken a similar approach to the Yankees, seemingly content to wait for prospect Jeremy Pena and uninterested in splurging on an expensive free agent shortstop to replace Carlos Correa. But Pena only played 30 Triple-A games in 2021 and just 37 games in total. It would probably be unwise to expect him to simply jump up to the majors and take over as the full-time shortstop without a hitch. Having someone like Gregorius on hand would be a better fallback option than Aledmys Diaz, who hasn’t played more than nine games at shortstop in a season since 2018.

The Rockies don’t yet have a replacement for Trevor Story, who seems unlikely to return in free agency. There are internal candidates such as Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers, but they are capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond, meaning it would be quite easy to fit Gregorius into the equation. Perhaps playing his home games at Coors Field could help him get his groove back at the plate.

The Angels have improved their pitching staff this offseason but still have question marks on the infield, with Tyler Wade and David Fletcher currently pencilled into the middle of the diamond. With the club clearly in win-now mode as they try to take advantage of their best remaining years of the Trout-Ohtani combo, they could grab Gregorius and bump Wade into a utility role.

If the Phils can find a taker for Gregorius, it could clear the deck for Stott or perhaps an acquisition in free agency. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain unsigned and will need to find new teams once the lockout is complete. As a big-market team with an uncertain shortstop picture, the Phillies stand out as one of the teams that could theoretically be a fit for them. The club’s Opening Day payroll is currently projected to be $181MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s about $10MM shy of last year’s number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s possible the club decides to push the budget a bit farther this year, but finding a taker for some or all of the $15.25MM owed to Gregorius would give them more wiggle room to address shortstop along with other areas of weakness, such as center field, left field and the bullpen.

Trade Candidate: Tyler Glasnow

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The Rays find themselves in a tricky position with regards to Tyler Glasnow. The 6’8″ right-hander is probably the team’s most talented pitcher. Last season, he looked on the way towards solidifying himself among the best in the sport. Through his first 14 starts and 88 innings, Glasnow posted a 2.66 ERA with a fantastic 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.9% walk percentage.

Glasnow has always had the raw stuff to miss bats in droves, but as he entered his mid-20s, he’d seemingly found the control to match. He has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, his health hasn’t yet allowed him reach that upside. Glasnow missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain. He stayed healthy during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he didn’t make it through 2021 unscathed.

Last June, Glasnow suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing arm. After unsuccessfully attempting to rehab the injury, the California native underwent Tommy John surgery two months later. That obviously brought his 2021 season to a close, and it’ll likely cost him all of 2022 as well. The timing of that procedure leaves the Tampa Bay front office with a decision to make regarding his long-term future in the organization.

Glasnow is arbitration eligible for the third of four times this offseason. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2023 season. With next season likely a wash, Glasnow’s club is looking at one year (2023) of production before he can test the open market. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary this year, and he’d likely earn the same amount the following season.

So that’s around $12MM over two years for one season of Glasnow’s services. Given the caliber of pitcher he is, that could be a bargain if he returns to form in 2023. Yet as Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last summer, it’s not clear how heavy a workload a team could reasonably anticipate Glasnow to work that year even if his recovery goes as planned. While he shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of 2023 — barring unexpected setbacks in his rehab process — he might not be equipped to shoulder a 180-inning workload. Between injuries and the pandemic, Glasnow will have tossed just 241 2/3 MLB innings between 2019-22, including the postseason (assuming he misses all of next year).

As is typically the case with the Rays, there’s also their team spending limitations to consider. Tampa Bay entered last season with a player payroll a bit south of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including arbitration projections, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2022 commitments in the $84MM range. That’s not much compared to the rest of the league, but it’d be a franchise-record sum for Tampa Bay. Is ownership willing to support that kind of expenditure entering the season? Even if so, would the front office prefer to reallocate Glasnow’s projected money as they attempt to make a run at their fifth consecutive 90-win showing?

The Rays aren’t going to move Glasnow solely to shed salary. Were that the case, they’d have simply non-tendered him before November’s deadline. But they seem likely to consider trade offers, particularly if they can get help for 2022 in return. Rosenthal and Lin reported Tampa Bay and the Cubs kicked around trade formulations involving Glasnow and Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel before last summer’s deadline. Those obviously didn’t come to fruition, but the Rays will probably look into similar possibilities after the lockout.

Any team with designs on contending in 2023 could be a plausible trade partner. A retooling organization like the Cubs or Nationals could take on a few million dollars during a non-competitive season with an eye towards a quick rebound after selling off pieces last summer. An immediate contender with more near-term financial flexibility than the Rays have could see this as a buy-low opportunity. Trades of players this talented between contenders are uncommon, but given the Rays’ financial situation and the timing of Glasnow’s surgery, a deal during the expected post-lockout transactions frenzy wouldn’t be surprising.

Trade Candidate: J.D. Davis

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After being drafted by the Astros in 2014, J.D. Davis utterly mashed in the minors but couldn’t contribute much in his first couple of MLB seasons for Houston. From 2014 to 2018, Davis produced a wRC+ of at least 134 at each stop from Low-A up to Triple-A. Those tantalizing offensive skills were enough to get him a taste of MLB action in 2017 and 2018, playing 67 total games over those two seasons, but hitting just .194/.260/.321.

Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets took a chance on Davis, acquiring him from the Astros in the hope that his bat would eventually click in the Majors. The gamble paid off immediately, as Davis had an excellent year at the plate in 2019, hitting 22 home runs and slashing .307/.369/.527, producing a wRC+ of 137 and 2.4 fWAR over 140 games. He slipped a bit in the shortened 2020 campaign, tallying just six homers but still hitting above league average with a line of .247/.371/.389, wRC+ of 118. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL due to issues with his left hand, but still hit well when he was healthy, as he produced a line of .285/.384/.436 for a wRC+ of 130 in 73 games.

As the season was winding down and the Mets were clearly not going to be a factor in the postseason, Davis underwent surgery to address the hand issue, with the expectation that he would be ready to go for spring training. At the time, Davis was quoted as saying that he felt he only had a 50/50 chance of returning to the Mets in 2022. “I know there’s going to be plenty of changes up and down from the front office all the way down to here,” Davis said. “My gut feeling? I could be out of here. That’s what it’s kind of leaning towards. But there’s a possibility that I could come back. I love New York. I love the fans. I love the city. It’s a flip of the coin.”

Davis likely suspected his name to come up in trade talks due to the crowded infield situation in Queens. Robinson Cano sat out 2021 due to his PED suspension but will be returning for 2022. If Cano were to get significant playing time at second base, that could have meant Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme getting some time at third base with Davis. But then to complicate things further, the Mets went on a wild spending spree before the lockout, which included adding Eduardo Escobar into the second/third base jumble. If the National League were to implement the designated hitter for 2022, that could theoretically open up at-bats for someone in this group. However, the Mets also added Mark Canha and Starling Marte to their outfield, alongside Brandon Nimmo, which bumps Dominic Smith into the DH conversation, as Pete Alonso should have most of the playing time at first base. All of that would seemingly only increase the odds of Davis, or someone else, being squeezed out.

Davis has played a little bit of first base and left field in his big league career but is primarily a third baseman. Most metrics consider him a poor defender, even at his primary position, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA making heavy use of the minus sign in assessing his glovework. The addition of the DH to the NL, if it comes to fruition, should theoretically help the Mets find a taker for Davis, as it would increase the ability of some team to utilize his bat without exposing themselves to his weakness in the field.

Despite his flaws, Davis has produced 4.5 fWAR over 269 games in the last three seasons, which should give him plenty of appeal around the league. He turns 29 in April and has between three and four years’ service time, meaning he is under club control through the 2024 season, unless the new CBA makes significant changes to the previous service time structure. He’s already gone through arbitration once, as he reached Super Two status prior to last year, and earned $2.1MM in 2021. Due to his injury-hampered season, he is projected to earn a modest raise to $2.7MM for 2022, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With his ability to hit, that affordable salary and years of control, he could potentially be a useful piece for any team in the league, including the Mets.

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