- The Blue Jays offered Matt Chapman a two-year contract before he signed with the Giants, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Given how long Chapman lingered on the market, it isn’t surprising that the Jays made a late bid to gauge his interest in a return to Toronto, even if Chapman’s “first choice” as per Heyman was reuniting with his old manager Bob Melvin in San Francisco. It can probably be assumed that the Blue Jays’ offer contained a player opt-out after the 2024 season, given how Chapman’s eventual three-year deal with the Giants has opt-outs after each of the first two years, plus both sides have a mutual option for the 2027 season. Re-installing Chapman at third base would’ve solidified the Jays’ infield situation, even if it would’ve made for a crowded mix of players fighting for regular work at second base and in backup roles. Had Chapman re-signed, Justin Turner would’ve been limited to first base and DH at-bats, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, and Santiago Espinal all would’ve been vying to be the right-handed hitting side of a second base platoon with Cavan Biggio.
Blue Jays Rumors
Kevin Gausman Expects To Be Ready For Regular Season
Kevin Gausman is one of a few Blue Jays pitchers who has been a bit behind this spring. The Jays scratched him from a throwing session on Monday as he dealt with “general fatigue” in his throwing shoulder. While any mention of shoulder discomfort for a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber will raise some concern, it doesn’t appear to be an issue that’ll carry into the year.
Manager John Schneider said yesterday the Jays were hopeful to have their ace working off a mound again by next Monday. In an appearance on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio with Steve Phillips and Xavier Scruggs this afternoon, Gausman downplayed any concern. “Just had to slow it down a little bit and not jump in to facing hitters right away, but I’ll be ready for the regular season,” he said.
There are just under three weeks until Opening Day. Gausman, if healthy and fully built up, would get the call for that tilt against the Rays. The Jays certainly aren’t going to force the issue for a largely symbolic honor, so they could elect to hold off his season debut until their series opener against the Astros on April 1.
That would likely leave the Opening Day assignment to Chris Bassitt. He and Gausman will be joined in the season-opening starting five by José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays expected Alek Manoah to secure the fifth starter role entering camp, but he has been delayed by shoulder soreness. If he’s not available to start the season, righty Bowden Francis seems the likeliest candidate to step in. Francis pitched to a 1.73 ERA over 20 MLB appearances in long relief last year. He has never started a big league game but reached as many as four innings out of the bullpen. Francis has started two of three spring appearances, working eight frames of three-run ball with 10 strikeouts.
Mitch White must also make the MLB roster or be offered to other teams, as he has exhausted his minor league options. He has worked in a swing capacity at the big league level and owns an ERA just under 5.00 over 161 1/3 MLB innings. Unlike Francis, White is off to a rocky start to the spring. He has walked six with just a pair of strikeouts in six innings spanning three relief outings. He’d probably be ticketed for long relief if Francis grabs the fifth starter spot.
Offseason signee Yariel Rodríguez and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann could factor into the rotation mix over the course of the year. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote last night that neither player is viewed as a realistic candidate to break camp, however. Rodríguez sat out last season after pitching in the World Baseball Classic as he waited for MLB to declare him a free agent. Tiedemann had a pair of stints on the minor league injured list and was limited to 44 innings over 15 appearances across four levels.
The Jays will need to be cautious with the workloads for both pitchers, an easier task if they open the year in Triple-A. They’ve each been a little behind in camp. Rodríguez has battled back spasms and Tiedemann was delayed by leg inflammation. Neither injury is serious and both pitchers should soon see game action.
Blue Jays Notes: Swanson, Rotation, Clement
Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson has recently been dealing with a scary situation, as it was announced last week that his son Toby was struck by a car and had to be airlifted to hospital. Thankfully, it seems things have progressed well since then. Swanson spoke with members of the media today, including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, passing along the good news. “I stand here, very happily, telling you that in the next day or two, he should probably be going home.”
Toby’s health is obviously more important than baseball, but it sounds as though Swanson may be able to start turning his attentions back to his upcoming season. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet relays that Swanson threw about 20 pitches today at the club’s complex and is on track to be ready for Opening Day, though he may throw another side session before getting into an organized game. Swanson made 69 appearances for the Jays last year, earning four saves and 29 holds while posting a 2.97 ERA.
Turning to the Toronto rotation, a few question marks have popped up here in camp as both Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah were slowed by some shoulder soreness. The depth was also a bit of a concern, as Yariel Rodríguez was dealing with some back spasms while prospect Ricky Tiedemann was battling inflammation in his calf and hamstring.
As of today, three of those four appear to be progressing in a positive direction, with Manoah being the exception. Per Matheson, Manoah’s shoulder is still sore and he wasn’t able to throw today’s scheduled bullpen session. His recent MRI didn’t show any structural damage but the delays from the continued discomfort are starting to put his readiness for the start of the season in question.
Elsewhere, the news is more positive. Per Nicholson-Smith, the Jays are hopeful that Gausman can be throwing off a mound by Monday and start building up for the season. Tiedemann will be starting Saturday’s game, per Matheson, which could allow him to be almost fully built up by Opening Day. As for Rodríguez, Francys Romero relays that he’s feeling better and will throw live BP tomorrow, with game action to follow if all goes well.
The Jays figure to open the season with José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in three rotation spots. Gausman and Manoah would join them if they were healthy but it sounds as though that’s unlikely to be the case with Manoah and at least somewhat uncertain with Gausman. Both Bowden Francis and Mitch White are getting stretched out in spring and could step into a rotation spot to start the year. If only one is needed, White is out of options but Francis still has one option year remaining. That could give White a leg up but he could also find himself in the bullpen as a long reliever if Francis takes the job.
Rodríguez and Tiedemann will be battling Francis and White for innings as well but they may be held back by their spring delays and general workload concerns. Rodríguez had been working as a reliever in Japan and didn’t pitch at all in 2023 after the World Baseball Classic as he waited to be released from his NPB contract. Tiedemann dealt with various injuries last year and only tossed 47 innings in the minors, followed by 18 more in the Arizona Fall League. The Jays would likely prefer to be cautious with both of them as opposed to rushing them into a season-opening big league jobs.
Elsewhere on Toronto’s roster, the Jays are facing an interesting decision with infielder Ernie Clement, as laid out in a column from Nicholson-Smith. Clement has long been considered a glove-first player but seemed to take a step forward offensively last year. He hit .380/.385/.500 in his 52 big league plate appearances and .348/.401/.544 in Triple-A.
He likely won’t be able to sustain the .391 batting average on balls in play he ran in the majors last year or even the .338 mark he had in Triple-A, as major league average was .297 in 2023. But he clearly has a knack for putting the bat on the ball as he hardly ever strikes out. He was punched out just 7.7% of the time in the big leagues last year and just 5% of the time in Triple-A.
Even passable offense can make him a solid bench piece, since he’s considered a quality defender at multiple positions, having lined up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners in his career. But he’s now out of options and can’t be sent down. The Jays will need at least one bench spot for a catcher and then may need others for guys like Davis Schneider, Daniel Vogelbach, Spencer Horwitz, Nathan Lukes or Santiago Espinal.
Nicholson-Smith speaks to a scout from a rival club who suggests Clement would likely draw interest if the Jays tried to pass him through waivers but that he might be kept around as a backup to shortstop Bo Bichette.
Josh Donaldson Announces Retirement
Third baseman Josh Donaldson announced his retirement today on The Mayor’s Office (YouTube link). Back in November, he expressed an openness to playing one more year under the right circumstances, but it now seems the Bringer of Rain has decided it’s time to hang up his spikes.
Donaldson, now 38, took a winding path to the major leagues and was a late bloomer, but he nonetheless reached incredible heights as a big leaguer once everything aligned.
While playing third base at Auburn University, he began to learn how to catch. The Cubs then selected him as a catcher with the 48th overall pick in the 2007 draft. In July of 2008, he was traded to the Athletics, one of four players going to Oakland in exchange for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.
As he climbed the minor league ladder with his new club, his bat was considered ahead of his glove, an understandable situation given that he was relatively new to catching. He made his major league debut in 2010 but hit just .156/.206/.281 in his first 34 plate appearances.
He was stuck in the minors in 2011 and then spent 2012 being shuttled between the majors and the minors, gradually spending more time at third base over that stretch. His breakout season finally came in 2013, when Donaldson was 27 years old. Now done with catching for good, he got into 158 games for the A’s that year as their everyday third baseman. He hit 24 home runs and drew a walk in 11.4% of his plate appearances, only striking out at a 16.5% rate. His .301/.384/.499 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 147 and he got strong grades for his defense at the hot corner, leading to a tally of 7.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 7.2 from Baseball Reference. He finished fourth in American League MVP voting.
Donaldson followed that up with a similarly excellent season in 2014 and the A’s made the postseason for a third straight year, but made a quick playoff exit all three times. The club decided to undergo a huge roster overhaul that winter, a frequent occurrence for the club and its persistent financial concerns. Going into 2015, the club traded away guys like Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija and also flipped Donaldson to the Blue Jays for a four-player package.
His first season in Toronto would eventually prove to be the best of his career. He launched 41 home runs and slashed .297/.371/.568 for a wRC+ of 154. The Jays won the A.L. East that year and Donaldson launched another three home runs in that year’s playoffs as the Jays advanced as far as the ALCS. He was graded as worth 8.7 fWAR and was voted as that year’s A.L. MVP, just ahead of Mike Trout.
He would go onto to have another excellent season for the Jays in 2016, hitting 37 home runs that year as they advanced to the ALCS yet again. He scored the winning run in the ALDS by dashing home from second on a fielder’s choice to secure an extra-inning victory over the Rangers.
But in 2017, injuries started to crop up, which would go on to be a key issue in the rest of his career. He was still excellent that season, slashing .270/.385/.559 while hitting 33 home runs, but was limited to 113 contests due to a calf strain. He and the Jays agreed to a $23MM salary for 2018, his final year of arbitration control. Since the Jays had fallen to fourth place the year prior, there were some trade rumors around Donaldson that winter but he ultimately stayed put.
He spent much of that year on the injured list due to shoulder and calf issues. With the Jays out of contention at the August waiver deadline, he was flipped to Cleveland for Julian Merryweather. Donaldson only played 16 games for Cleveland after that deal as he continued battling his injuries.
He finally reached free agency that winter, but with a limited amount of momentum. Thanks to his late-bloomer trajectory, he was going into his age-33 season and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Alex Anthopoulos, who acquired Donaldson when he was making decisions for the Blue Jays, had become the general manager in Atlanta prior to the 2018 campaign. He gave Donaldson a one-year “prove-it” deal worth $23MM.
Donaldson bounced back tremendously with Atlanta, getting into 155 games, walking in 15.2% of his plate appearances and hitting .259/.379/.521 for a 131 wRC+. He then rejected a qualifying offer from Atlanta and then signed a four-year, $92MM deal with the Twins. Issues with his right calf cropped up again in 2020, as he only played 28 games during that shortened season, but was able to get into 135 contests the year after and launch 26 home runs in the process.
With two years still left on that deal, the Twins flipped him to the Yankees alongside Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt, with Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez going the other way. Donaldson was healthy enough to get into 132 games in 2022 but his production tailed off. He only hit 15 homers and struck out at a 27.1% clip, leading to a line of .222/.308/.374. He spent much of 2023 on the injured list and was released at the end of August, joining the Brewers for the stretch run before returning to free agency this winter.
It wasn’t a storybook ending but Donaldson nonetheless managed to weave together quite a career. Despite not truly breaking out until the age of 27, he still managed to get into 1,384 games and rack up 1,310 hits. That latter figure includes 287 doubles, 12 triples and 279 home runs. He had matching tallies of 816 runs scored and runs batted in, stealing 40 bases in the process. He received an MVP award, three All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers. His fiery personality which drove him to succeed also rankled some people around the game, as he often quarrelled with umpires, coaches and fellow players, but that combination of his talent and prickly character will likely lead him to being one of the more memorable players of his era. We at MLBTR salute him on his many accomplishments and wish him the best in whatever comes next.
Kevin Gausman Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Kevin Gausman is dealing with “general fatigue” in his throwing shoulder, manager John Schneider told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) on Monday morning. The Blue Jays ace underwent an MRI that fortunately revealed no structural damage or injury. While that’s clearly a relief, there’s going to be some level of concern whenever a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber is battling any kind of shoulder discomfort.
The Jays elected to have Gausman skip his scheduled throwing session on Monday. He’ll be reevaluated later in the week. There’s nothing to suggest his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy at this point. It’s nevertheless a situation to which the Jays will pay close attention. Alek Manoah is also battling what appears to be minor shoulder soreness. They’re the bookends to a projected rotation that’ll include a middle trio of Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos. Right-hander Bowden Francis is probably the top option to step into the season-opening starting five if anyone from that group begins the year on the shelf.
Giants Sign Matt Chapman
MARCH 3: The Giants officially announced Chapman’s signing and the terms, with the additional detail that the contract includes a mutual option covering the 2027 season.
Chapman will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $16MM salary in 2024, plus a $2MM buyout on the $17MM player option for 2025. If the third baseman remains in his contract through the 2025 season, he’ll have an $18MM player option for 2026 with a $3MM buyout attached. Should he remain in his contract through those three seasons, Chapman and the Giants will share a $20MM mutual option for the 2027 season, with a $1MM buyout if either party declines their side of the option.
MARCH 1: Matt Chapman is headed back to the Bay Area. The four-time Gold Glove winner has reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $54MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client can opt out after each of the next two seasons.
He’ll make $20MM this season, followed by successive $18MM and $16MM player options. The contract has an $18MM average annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.
Chapman, 31 next month, reunites with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin. He’s familiar with both from his early days with the A’s. Chapman was a first-round pick by Oakland in 2014 and debuted three years later. He stepped in as one of the sport’s best all-around players.
The Cal State Fullerton product put up a .255/.336/.503 batting line through his first three and a half seasons. He paired that with the best third base defense in the American League. Chapman finished among the top 10 in AL MVP balloting in 2018 and ’19, securing Gold Glove honors in both years.
Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by a labrum tear in his right hip. He underwent surgery that September, shutting him down for the year. While it wasn’t clear at the time, that injury has proven to be something of a turning point in his career. His offensive production hasn’t been the same since he made his return.
The right-handed hitter stumbled to a career-worst .210/.314/.403 line in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Chapman’s offensive production ticked up slightly in Toronto, but he hasn’t found his 2018-19 form outside of a scorching April last year.
After a .229/.324/.433 showing in 2022, Chapman entered his platform season looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. He began the year as the hottest hitter on the planet. Chapman mashed at a .384/.465/.687 clip through the end of April. While he’d cut his strikeout rate to a 22.8% mark in the season’s first month, his whiffs spiked as the summer approached. A dismal May kicked off what proved to be a disappointing finish to his Jays tenure.
Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%. By the second half, he was often hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. The Jays briefly sent him to the injured list in late August for a sprain of the middle finger on his right hand. It’s possible that had an adverse effect on his offense, but the biggest concern is that he didn’t sustain the strides in contact rate he had seemed to make early on.
That presented a tough evaluation for teams as he hit the open market for the first time. Even if he’s no longer an MVP-caliber player, Chapman is still an above-average regular. He has drawn walks in more than 10% of his plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He connected on 27 homers in both 2021 and ’22. That dipped to 17 longballs a year ago, yet that’s not a reflection of a drop in his contact quality.
Chapman actually hit the ball harder than ever last season, averaging 93.5 MPH in exit velocity. He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors, narrowly ahead of impact bats like former teammate Matt Olson, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani.
He remains an asset on the other side of the ball. Chapman’s defensive grades aren’t quite as eye-popping as they were early in his career, but he’s still a plus at third base. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have rated him as an above-average defender in every season of his career. That includes an estimated three runs better than par by Statcast and an excellent +12 mark from DRS over more than 1200 innings last season.
Infield defense was an issue for the Giants, particularly on the left side. San Francisco led longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford walk in free agency. They’re set to turn that position to 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis drew mixed reviews from defensive metrics last season. There’s no question that Chapman will be an upgrade on that side of the ball. While there had been some speculation the Giants could consider kicking Chapman up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’ll stick at the hot corner at Oracle Park.
San Francisco has targeted Chapman throughout the offseason, having been tied to him as early as the middle of November. They were content to wait out the market as he was one of a handful of top free agents who lingered well into Spring Training.
A $54MM guarantee certainly isn’t what his camp had in mind at the beginning of the offseason. Chapman had reportedly declined a 10-year, $150MM extension offer from the A’s back in 2019. He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency. Whatever asking price he had set at the beginning of the winter wasn’t met. As with fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger, Chapman turned to a short-term deal that gives him the chance to get back to the market next offseason instead.
He was one of seven players to receive and decline a qualifying offer in November. The QO would have been valued at $20.325MM, a hair above what he now stands to make next season. This contract structure is certainly preferable to taking the qualifying offer — there’s added security built in via the player options in case he struggles or suffers an injury — but the end result could be similar. The likeliest outcome is that he collects a $20MM salary in 2024 and retests the market next winter.
It remains to be seen if it would treat him more kindly the next time around. He’d be entering his age-32 season with a profile that is heavily dependent on defense. Chapman won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer — players can’t receive that more than once in their careers, per the CBA — but he’s unlikely to be the clear top free agent at the position, as he was this winter. Alex Bregman headlines next year’s third base class, which will also include Davis.
The Giants surrender their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft (#51 overall) and $500K in international signing bonus space to add a player who had declined the QO. The Jays were one of eight teams that paid the luxury tax last season, so their compensation is minimal. They’ll get an extra draft choice after the fourth round, roughly 136th overall.
It’s a bigger penalty for the Giants than it is compensation for Toronto. It’s one the Giants are nevertheless happy to pay to get Chapman at a price well below what they could have expected coming into the offseason. (MLBTR predicted he’d receive six-year, $150MM pact at the start of the winter.) The contract pushes their 2024 player payroll to roughly $183MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $231MM in luxury tax obligations, keeping them $6MM shy of next year’s threshold.
If they want to avoid the CBT, that wouldn’t leave a ton of room for in-season acquisitions. It’s possible they’re comfortable exceeding the threshold for the first time since 2017. San Francisco has been tied to Blake Snell (and to a much lesser extent) Jordan Montgomery. They’re still in clear need of rotation help, particularly after expected #5 starter Tristan Beck underwent surgery on Friday to address an aneurysm.
Forfeiting a draft choice to sign Chapman to a contract that allows him to opt out after one season is the clearest win-now move of San Francisco’s offseason. They’ve also brought in Jung Hoo Lee to take center field, Jorge Soler at designated hitter, and signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year pact to transition to the rotation. Revamping the lineup to that extent without adding more certainty behind Logan Webb, Hicks, and rookie Kyle Harrison seems unlikely.
Davis is set for a $6.9MM salary in his final season of arbitration and just lost his spot in the starting lineup. Soler and Wilmer Flores are ahead of him as right-handed hitters who’ll factor in at DH at first base, respectively. Flipping Davis to a team that needs third base help before Opening Day could clear spending room for the Giants and seems the best outcome for him personally. There’s very likely more to come at Oracle Park in the next three weeks.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, opt-outs, and salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?
Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.
That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:
Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2
The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.
With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.
While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.
Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9
The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.
Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.
Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.
Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6
The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.
Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.
While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.
Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7
After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.
That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.
Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.
Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2
It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.
The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.
Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.
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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?
Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!
Blue Jays Notes: Chapman, Manoah, Tiedemann, Rodriguez
Matt Chapman’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman signed with the Giants yesterday, scuttling any chances of a possible return to Toronto. The Blue Jays’ additions of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Chapman and the Jays could perhaps reach some sort of deal, especially since we just saw Cody Bellinger (like Chapman, a Boras Corporation client) re-sign with his former team on a short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.
The Jays had also been linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in retaining Chapman dated back well before he entered free agency. Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years. Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.
Chapman ended up with a three-year, $54MM guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out of the deal after either the 2024 or 2025 seasons. Based on sheer dollar value alone, it is easy to second-guess Chapman’s decision to reject Toronto’s extension offer at the moment, though six years and $120MM would’ve seemed like something of a bargain for Chapman for much of the 2023 campaign. Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s big dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR still projected him to land six years and $150MM this winter, owing to both his still-excellent defensive play, his outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.
However, a bustling market never really seemed to develop. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants ended up being the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman ultimately chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out giving him a chance for a quick re-entry into free agency next offseason. He’ll bank $20MM in salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term deal (and he won’t be attached to qualifying-offer compensation). While simply signing that extension with the Blue Jays would’ve erased any of this future uncertainty, Chapman seems willing to bet on himself in having a better platform year.
From Toronto’s perspective, it isn’t known if the Jays (or any other teams) had also floated this type of player option-heavy shorter-term deal to Chapman at any point. If the Blue Jays were indeed out of Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll constraints might have been a factor, as the Jays are on pace for their second straight year with a club-record payroll, as well as a second year over luxury tax overage. RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax number at around $248.6MM, and re-signing Chapman to an $18MM average annual value would’ve put Toronto well over the second tier ($257MM) of luxury tax penalization, and inching closer to the third tier that begins at $277MM.
It could be that the Jays are satisfied enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and the in-house infield options that they were comfortable moving on from Chapman even at a reduced price tag. Or, perhaps the Jays did make Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman simply preferred to return to the Bay Area and re-unite with Bob Melvin, his old manager from his days with the Athletics.
Turning to some news from the Blue Jays’ spring camp in Dunedin, manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Alek Manoah won’t throw for a few days after feeling some soreness in his right shoulder during a bullpen session. An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Manoah will be re-evaluated in a few days’ time. According to Schneider, Manoah said his shoulder felt “a bit cranky, so we wanted to be extra careful at this point.”
While there isn’t any indication that the injury is anything more than basic soreness, the shoulder issue adds to Manoah’s status as the biggest question mark on the Blue Jays roster. After seemingly breaking out as a frontline pitcher in 2021-22, Manoah struggled badly in 2023, posting a 5.87 ERA in 87 1/3 big league innings. Manoah spent the offseason under a changed nutrition and training plan, but his first spring outing wasn’t promising, as he allowed four runs on three hits and three hit batters over 1 2/3 innings last Tuesday.
Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are Toronto’s top four starters, with Manoah somewhat tentatively penciled into the fifth spot. Bowden Francis seems like the top candidate on the depth chart should any holes open in the rotation, with Schneider also citing Mitch White and non-roster invite Paolo Espino. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is more likely to begin the season at Triple-A, and Tiedemann is only getting back to regular prep work after missing some time with minor inflammation in his calf and hamstring.
Yariel Rodriguez is another new face in camp, as the right-hander is looking to make his MLB debut after signing a five-year, $32MM free agent contract. Apart from the World Baseball Classic, however, Rodriguez didn’t pitch in 2023, as he spent the year preparing to jump to the majors after spending his first eight pro seasons in the Cuban Serie Nacional and with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons.
Given this long layoff, it isn’t surprising that Rodriguez has some rust, and Schneider told Sportsnet and other media yesterday that Rodriguez had some back spasms earlier in camp that delayed his prep work. The righty is slated to throw a bullpen session today and is “feeling 100 per cent right now,” according to Schneider. “That was kind of our plan, to take it slow and really get him acclimated. But he should have enough time to hopefully ramp up to multiple innings when he does get into games,” the manager said.
Blue Jays’ Erik Swanson Away From Team While Son Recovers From Accident
Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson is taking time away from the team after his four year-old-son Toby was struck by a car, manager John Schneider announced this morning (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). The accident occurred on Sunday in the Clearwater area. Toby was airlifted to a local hospital.
Schneider said that Toby “is on the road to recovery” but understandably didn’t provide many specifics. Swanson will be away from the team to be with his family. “The guys have been great. Erik and his wife Madison are very thankful for the support. And we’re going to continue to give it as long as we need to,” Schneider told reporters. “Again, baseball is secondary when you’re talking about family and life. We’re going to continue to support him. The guys have been absolutely phenomenal with him so far and you can’t forget about players’ wives and significant others that have reached out as well. It’s been a rough couple of days, but it’s really, really nice to see the support for Erik.”
The Blue Jays released a brief statement on X sending “love, support and prayers (to) the entire Swanson family.” MLBTR joins countless others throughout the game in sending our best wishes to the Swanson family.
Toronto acquired Swanson from the Mariners last offseason. He turned in a 2.96 ERA in 66 2/3 innings during his first season with the club.
Latest On Ricky Tiedemann
- Top Blue Jays pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann is day-to-day with inflammation in his calf and hamstring area, manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (X links) and other reporters. It doesn’t seem like Tiedemann will be sidelined for too long since an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, though any kind of injury setback is perhaps more concerning given how Tiedemann missed big chunks of the 2023 season due to shoulder and biceps injuries. After pitching just 44 minor league innings last year, Tiedemann is going to be built up slowly and steadily to the point where the Jays hope he can take on more of a regular starter’s workload, and perhaps make his MLB debut before 2024 is through.
