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Jays GM: Bichette Trade “An Easy No”

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The Blue Jays have no interest in rebuilding after this year’s last place finish. Toronto made that clear by only dealing rentals or role players (i.e. Isiah Kiner-Falefa) at the deadline. As part of that renewed effort to contend, general manager Ross Atkins shot down the possibility of a Bo Bichette trade.

Asked by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi how he’d respond to inquiries from other teams on Bichette, Atkins replied that it’d be “an easy no” on the Jays’ end (X link). The GM has downplayed the possibility of moving his shortstop or infield mate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a few occasions in recent months.

It’s a logical stance for the team. While Bichette is entering the final year of his contract, a trade this winter would be selling at the low point of his value. The two-time All-Star is coming off a terrible season. He hit .225/.277/.322 over 336 plate appearances. Bichette had three injured list stints and underwent postseason surgery to address a fractured right middle finger. The Jays will hope for a return to the form he showed between 2019-23, when he was among the best shortstops in baseball.

Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM next year. It’s the final season of the three-year deal that he signed to buy out his arbitration window. A rebound would position him to cash in as a free agent when he enters his age-28 campaign. He and Guerrero are both on track for free agency next winter. It looks highly unlikely the Jays will keep both players for the long term.

As they try to turn things around in 2025, the Jays will pencil Bichette back in at shortstop. They’ll need to make other moves to improve after a 74-88 showing. Upgrading a bullpen that ranked 29th in MLB with a 4.82 ERA is the most obvious target area. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that the Jays are also going to be involved in the starting pitching market.

Toronto projects for a starting five of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez. Right-hander Jake Bloss, acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi deadline deal, might be the top depth option. It’s not a bad group, but Rodríguez and Francis haven’t pitched full seasons as starters. Adding a more established starter could have a trickle-down impact on the ’pen, as Rodríguez worked in both capacities and could excel in a multi-inning relief role if the Jays added to their rotation.

On the position player side, the outfield stands as the biggest question. Toronto doesn’t have a clear starter in left field. George Springer is penciled in as the top option in right field, but he’s coming off a middling year at age 35. Daulton Varsho is ticketed for the lion’s share of playing time in center field. They’ll probably need a short-term stopgap with Varsho recovering from September rotator cuff surgery. Atkins told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Keegan Matheson (X link) that the Jays don’t expect Varsho to be ready for Opening Day, though it doesn’t sound as if he should be sidelined too far into the season.

Atkins indicated the Jays aren’t likely to make a big move behind the plate, telling Bastian and Matheson that adding a catcher is “not a priority” (X link). Toronto is set to give the bulk of playing time to Alejandro Kirk. They reacquired Tyler Heineman via late-season waiver claim to serve as Kirk’s backup.

It does seem they’re open to adding at either second or third base, however. Nicholson-Smith reports that the Jays have shown early interest in the top free agent second baseman, Gleyber Torres. The Yankees allowed Torres to hit the market without a qualifying offer, so a signing team will not forfeit draft compensation. There’s a wide range of free agent outcomes for Torres, who hits free agency coming off a relative down year. Most of that can be traced to a dismal April, as he hit well from May onward and continued to produce during New York’s pennant run. He has a case for three or potentially four years going into his age-28 season, but the infielder could prefer a shorter-term arrangement to get back to free agency after a better overall walk year.

Toronto has a collection of internal second base options, none of whom has a ton of MLB experience. Will Wagner is probably the internal favorite after impressing in 24 games to close his rookie season. Leo Jiménez, Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement could also vie for playing time. Torres brings a higher floor than that group. Atkins and his staff will weigh whether they want to allocate significant resources to the keystone when they have so many other areas to address over the next few weeks.

Blue Jays Believed To Have Gotten Under Luxury Tax Threshold

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According to a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 player payroll below the first competitive balance tax threshold of $237MM. However, that will not be confirmed until later this offseason when the commissioner’s office calculates each team’s final payroll and formally announces which clubs will have to pay luxury tax penalties for the 2024 season.

The Blue Jays came into the season with a luxury tax payroll approximately $11MM above the first threshold, but they shaved some money off the books by trading several players ahead of the deadline. It’s also worth keeping in mind that publicly available payroll estimates are exactly that – estimates.

According to the estimates at RosterResource, 10 teams (including the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxury tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are certain to be penalized, while the Blue Jays and Cubs are close enough that they could potentially slip under the $237MM threshold in the final calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s final 2024 luxury tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. While neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs would have to pay a particularly high penalty for their modest overages (if they do in fact go over), the Blue Jays, in particular, could benefit from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last season. Luxury tax penalties increase when a team goes over the first threshold for a second consecutive season and increase again when a team goes over for a third consecutive season. Unless the Blue Jays are confidently planning to decrease payroll this winter, it would make a big difference if they could reset their penalties this year. After all, a 30% tax on a few million dollars in overages wouldn’t be that big of a deal for Toronto, but the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) next year and beyond could significantly hamper offseason spending.

What’s more, if the Blue Jays get under the luxury tax threshold, they would only lose their second-highest draft pick (and not their second and fifth-highest picks) if they sign a free agent who received the qualifying offer this winter. Similarly, they would only lose $500K of international bonus pool money rather than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, like the World Series champion Dodgers, understand that it’s worth losing a few draft picks and some international bonus pool money in order to sign the best major league players and field the most competitive major league team. However, one can understand why the Blue Jays, who finished 74-88 in 2024 and would likely only be a few million over the luxury tax threshold (if they went over at all), would prefer not to be so harshly penalized.

There is no reason to believe the Blue Jays are entering a rebuilding or retooling phase after their disappointing 2024 season. Instead, it seems more likely they will try to contend once again in their final season of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they attempt to do so, it would certainly help if they don’t have to be quite so concerned about signing a QO free agent or bringing next year’s payroll above the first luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that team president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the team’s payroll “either growing or decreasing in a big way,” but that still leaves for the team to sign at least one QO free agent and possibly eclipse the first tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxury tax payroll for 2025 is currently $211.2MM, approximately $29.2MM lower than this past year’s estimated total.

Blue Jays Claim Michael Petersen, Outright Genesis Cabrera

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The Blue Jays announced they’ve claimed reliever Michael Petersen from the Marlins. Toronto outrighted Génesis Cabrera and Luis Frías off the 40-man roster. Both players elected free agency. Toronto also designated righty Emmanuel Ramírez for assignment.

Petersen is on the move for the second time in a few months. Miami grabbed the right-hander off waivers from the Dodgers in September. He allowed four runs across 5 2/3 innings to finish the year. Petersen had made 11 appearances with the Dodgers. He closed his debut campaign with a 5.95 earned run average through 19 2/3 innings.

The 30-year-old Petersen had much better numbers in 33 innings at the Triple-A level. He posted a 1.64 ERA while striking out a massive 35.2% of opponents. The native of the United Kingdom still has a couple options remaining, so he’ll serve as a bullpen depth piece if the Jays keep him on the 40-man roster.

Cabrera’s tenure in Toronto ends after a season and a half. The Jays acquired the southpaw from the Cardinals midway through the ’23 season. Cabrera pitched well down the stretch and returned for a second season. The results were solid enough, as he posted a 3.59 ERA while logging 62 2/3 relief innings. Cabrera had a subpar 18.5% strikeout rate and walked nearly 11% of his opponents, though. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $2.5MM salary if tendered a contract for his final arbitration year. The Jays evidently weren’t willing to pay that price given Cabrera’s shaky K/BB profile.

Toronto grabbed Frías off waivers from the Diamondbacks late in the year. The 6’3″ righty was blown up for eight runs in 3 1/3 frames. He has a 7.38 ERA over 58 big league appearances. Frías was a reasonably well-regarded prospect who throws in the mid-90s, but he hasn’t shown any kind of strike-throwing consistency in the majors.

Ramírez, 30, was another late-season waiver acquisition. He came over from Miami in early September. Ramírez didn’t make an appearance for the Jays after allowing a near-7.00 ERA over 15 games for the Fish. He’ll presumably find himself on waivers in the next few days.

Mets Claim Luis De Los Santos

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The Mets announced that they have claimed infielder Luis De Los Santos off waivers from the Blue Jays. Additionally, outfielder DJ Stewart as well as left-handers Joey Lucchesi and Matt Gage were outrighted off the 40-man roster. Stewart and Lucchesi elected free agency.

De Los Santos, 26, got up to the big leagues for the first time this year. He hit .172/.226/.241 in a small sample of 31 plate appearances to start his major league career. He hit .260/.375/.441 in his 154 Triple-A plate appearances while spending time at all four infield positions.

He still has a couple of option seasons and less than a year of year of service time, so he can provide the Mets with some depth around the dirt for the foreseeable future. They have Francisco Lindor cemented at short but questions elsewhere. First baseman Pete Alonso is now a free agent. He could be re-signed but it’s no guarantee he’ll be back. Mark Vientos just had a breakout season while playing third base but with poor defense, so he could perhaps move over to first if Alonso departs. Second base could be taken by Jeff McNeil but he’s also capable of playing other positions. Young guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña or Ronny Mauricio are candidates to take over at second or third base.

Stewart, 31 this month, finished 2023 on a heater but couldn’t really carry it over into 2024 as he finished the year with a .177/.325/.297 batting line for the Mets. He could have been retained for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $1.7MM salary but the Mets clearly weren’t interested in that and bumped him off the roster instead.

Lucchesi, 32 in June, has been an optionable depth arm for the Mets for a while but is now out of options. That means he wouldn’t be able to continue in that role going forward. Since missing 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he has tossed 57 innings for the Mets over the past two seasons with a 3.32 ERA but but subpar strikeout and walk rates of 16.2% and 10.4% respectively. As players with at least three years of service time, both Stewart and Lucchesi had the right to elect free agency and did so.

Gage, 32 in February, was acquired from the Dodgers in a cash deal in July but didn’t pitch for them after that, mostly staying on optional assignment. He has 19 2/3 innings of major league experience with the Blue Jays and Astros in previous seasons.

Daniel Hudson Announces Retirement

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Following the Dodgers’ decisive victory over the Yankees in Game 5 of the World Series last night, veteran reliever Daniel Hudson announced to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that he will retire from playing as a champion. The veteran of 15 big league seasons has played for the Dodgers, Padres, Nationals, Blue Jays, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and White Sox throughout his lengthy career.

Hudson, 37, was selected by Chicago in the fifth round of the 2008 draft. Then a starting pitcher, the right-hander was a fast riser to the majors who made his big league debut just one year after being drafted, in 2009. He made just nine appearances for the team that drafted him across two seasons before being shipped to the Diamondbacks in a deal for Edwin Jackson. Hudson slotted into the Diamondbacks rotation down the stretch and put on a dazzling performance for fans in Arizona, with a 1.69 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 11 starts spread across 79 2/3 innings of work.

That dominant late-season performance suggested the Snakes had landed a quality starter ready for a full season’s workload in the majors. The right-hander’s first full season with the Dbacks seemed to support that, as he posted a solid 3.49 ERA while logging 222 innings across 33 starts for the club in 2011. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse from there. Hudson’s 2012 season saw him post disastrous results through nine starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery that July. He’d miss the entire 2013 season while rehabbing and made it back to a big league mound only at the tail end of the 2014 season.

Hudson’s elbow troubles marked the end of his career as a starter, but his time in the majors was just getting started as he began to fashion himself into a reliever. His first season out of the bullpen in Arizona was relatively pedestrian, as the then-28-year-old pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 67 2/3 innings of work while striking out 24.5% of opponents. It was more of the same for the right-hander over the next several years, as he bounced from team to team as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever. From 2015 to 2018, Hudson suited up for Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles with rather pedestrian results. His 96 ERA+ was just below league average during that time, and he struck out 23.3% of opponents.

Things changed for Hudson in 2019, however. After latching on with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, Hudson looked quite good for the rebuilding club in the first half of the season as he posted a solid 3.00 ERA in 48 innings of work. That solid performance was enough to draw interest from the Nationals, who at the time were in a tight race with the Phillies, Brewers, and Cubs for two NL Wild Card spots. The bullpen had been a sore spot for D.C. throughout the year, but Hudson helped to change that with a dominant late-season run that saw him post an eye-popping 1.44 ERA in 24 late-season innings for the Nationals.

That incredible work led Hudson to join closer Sean Doolittle as one of only a handful of trusted pitchers on Dave Martinez’s staff during the postseason. Hudson managed scoreless appearances in seven of his nine outings for the Nationals during that playoff run, highlighted by his save in the NL Wild Card Game against the Brewers to and his scoreless frame of work to close out Game 7 of the World Series and earn the Nats their first World Series championship in club history. After securing his first ring, Hudson remained with the Nationals for two more seasons. After a difficult 2020 campaign, he pitched well enough during the 2021 season to get traded to the Padres down the stretch, though San Diego ultimately missed the postseason.

The final act of Hudson’s career began in 2022 when he signed on to return to the Dodgers. During his second stint in Los Angeles, Hudson was nothing short of electric when on the mound, with a 2.69 ERA a 26.9% strikeout rate when healthy enough to take the mound. Staying healthy proved to be a challenge, however, as ACL and MCL injuries limited the veteran to just 27 1/3 innings of work over the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. He remained with the Dodgers on a minor league deal last winter, however, and was part of the club’s Opening Day bullpen. Now that he was finally healthy, the 37-year-old impressed with a 3.00 ERA in 63 innings of work while collecting ten saves with the Dodgers throughout the year. While a difficult outing in Game 4 of the World Series skewed his overall postseason numbers, Hudson was a generally effective relief arm for the club throughout their playoff run this year, throwing scoreless frames in five of his seven outings en route to his second career championship.

Altogether, Hudson posted a 3.74 ERA (111 ERA+) and a nearly-matching 3.76 FIP over 855 1/3 career innings during the regular season (to go with 21 postseason innings). He won 65 games and saved 43 while striking out 817 batters and appearing in 537 total contests. Those of us at MLB Trade Rumors salute Hudson on a fine career and wish him all the best in whatever comes next for the two-time World Series champion.

Blue Jays Hire David Popkins As Hitting Coach

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The Blue Jays announced today that they have hired David Popkins as their new hitting coach. It was reported a few weeks back that the Jays were parting ways with previous hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.

“David’s ability to game plan and connect with players in different ways is a really exciting addition to our coaching staff,” said manager John Schneider in the club’s press release, relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com on X. “He’s a true expert in all types of hitting information and will help our offensive strategy for each game. We’re looking forward to the instant impact of his relentless work ethic.”

Popkins was the hitting coach of the Twins for the past three years, but his contract ended after 2024 and it was reported a few weeks back that it wouldn’t be renewed, sending him to the open market.

In 2022, the Twins hit a collective .248/.317/.401 for a wRC+ of 106, putting them 10th in the majors. Despite that strong offense, the club finished 78-84 but fared better the following year. In 2023, the team hit .243/.326/.428 for a 108 wRC+, tied for sixth in the majors. That helped them put up a record of 87-75, winning the American League Central. The Twins defeated Popkins’ new club in the Wild Card round, sweeping the Blue Jays two games to none before being defeated by the Astros in the Division Series.

2024 was trending towards being another strong season in Minnesota but the club collapsed in the second half. They were holding a postseason spot for most of the campaign but went 9-18 in September and missed out.

The offense still performed fairly well overall, with a collective line of .246/.315/.411 and a 107 wRC+ that was ninth in the league. The bats did wilt as they club was collapsing, with the Twins hitting .218/.285/.338 for a 78 wRC+ in September, though injuries may have played a role there. Key players like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and José Miranda all spent at least part of September on the injured list.

It is always difficult to separate the performances of the players from the coaching staff, but the Twins are coming off three straight seasons of above-average offense with Popkins as their hitting coach.

The Toronto offense has been trending down a bit of late. In 2022, the club hit .264/.329/.431 for a 118 wRC+, second only to the Yankees. Last year, they dropped to a .256/.329/.417 line and 107 wRC+, eighth in the majors. Here in 2024, they were barely above average, with a .241/.313/.389 line and 101 wRC+. The club has decided to make some coaching adjustments that will hopefully turn that trend around, though improving the roster via free agency and trade will be the more important factor.

Tigers “Finalizing” Deal To Hire Shane Farrell As Farm Director

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8:52AM: The hiring isn’t yet official, as the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky writes (X link) that Farrell and the Tigers “are finalizing a deal.”  Farrell’s role with the Tigers would involve assuming some of the duties left open when Garko was promoted.

8:29AM: The Tigers have hired Shane Farrell as their new farm director, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (links to X).  Farrell has spent the last five seasons as the Blue Jays’ director of amateur scouting, and was in charge of the team’s drafts.

As Elliott notes, Farrell has past ties to Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris, as the two previously worked together in the Cubs’ front office when Harris was Chicago’s director of baseball ops and and Farrell was a scout and crosschecker.  There is also a distant family connection to Detroit for Farrell, as his father John (the longtime former manager and pitcher) spent his final season as a player with the Tigers in 1996.

It isn’t yet known if Farrell is joining the Tigers’ current front office mix, or if he’ll be taking the place of a departing executive.  Ryan Garko is still credited as the team’s VP of player development, but Garko was also promoted to an assistant GM role back in May.  Fellow AGM Rob Metzler oversees the team’s scouting operations, and Mark Conner has spent the last two seasons as Detroit’s director of amateur scouting.

Farrell’s departure leaves the Blue Jays with a big hole to fill in their front office, and it represents a shakeup in the club’s player development strategies.  While such notables as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alek Manoah are homegrown products of the Toronto farm system, the Jays have long had difficulty in developing a consistent pipeline of minor leaguers who become productive members of the MLB roster.

This problem predates Farrell’s arrival in the organization, and it is naturally hard to gauge his work in Toronto considering how almost literally all of the players drafted by the Jays in the last five seasons have yet to reach the big leagues.  Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick in 2020) is the only player drafted by the Blue Jays from 2020-24 who has made it to the Show, and Martin was traded to the Twins back in 2021 as part of the deal that brought Jose Berrios to Toronto.

Of course, the lack of any immediate help could itself be an issue, as the Jays haven’t had many big prospects coming up to bolster the roster or to be used as trade chips. 2021 first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund was also dealt to the A’s as part of the Matt Chapman trade package in March 2022, and other prominent young pitchers drafted under Farrell (Ricky Tiedemann, CJ Van Eyk, Brandon Barriera) have all had their career slowed by injuries.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Quick postseason exits in 2022 and 2023 left the Blue Jays wondering last winter if their core roster was good enough to compete for a World Series.  Heading into this offseason, the question is now if the Jays' core can even still contend at all, after the team cratered to a 74-88 record.  In what could potentially be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last season in Toronto, the Jays are under enormous pressure to turn things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Commitments

2025 financial commitments: $117.72MM
Total future commitments: $246.22MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After a comparatively average 2023 season, Guerrero responded with a huge year that re-established him as one of baseball's top hitters.  Daulton Varsho also improved to roughly league-average offense, and continued his exceptional glovework in Toronto's outfield.  Alejandro Kirk has quietly become something of the catching equivalent of Varsho, as a standout defender whose bat leaves something to be desired.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt were more good than great this season but they bring a lot of durability and general effectiveness to the rotation.  They'll be joined in next year's staff by Bowden Francis, whose sudden emergence in the second half made him like a budding ace, let alone simply worthy of a starting role.

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MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Had "Exploratory" Trade Talks About Bo Bichette Last Offseason

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The Blue Jays had some largely “exploratory” trade talks involving Bo Bichette early last offseason, TSN’s Scott Mitchell writes.  This isn’t exactly new news, as multiple reports last November indicated that the shortstop’s name indeed come up in trade discussions, though those talks were portrayed as other teams checking on Bichette’s availability.  Mitchell, however, specifies that “the Jays did indeed shop Bichette.”

As always, there’s plenty of gray area when parsing hot-stove terminology, as the distinction between actively trying to move Bichette and listening on Bichette trade offers could be pretty thin.  Executives routinely discuss scores of players in trade talks with other clubs, just as a matter of due diligence in gauging interest.  For instance, if Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins had learned that a rival club had a particular interest in Bichette and had a player or players that the Jays liked, Atkins might have been more inclined to “shop” Bichette in that particular direction in order to swing a favorable trade for Toronto.  In any case, as Mitchell observes, revisiting any trade talks involving Bichette this winter could be difficult because the shortstop is coming off an injury-plagued down year, so the Blue Jays aren’t likely to land a premium return even if they did look to move Bichette.

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