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Orioles Select Heston Kjerstad

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of outfielder Heston Kjerstad and recalling right-hander Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk. To open active roster spots for those two, outfielder Ryan McKenna and left-hander Nick Vespi were optioned to Norfolk. To open a spot for Kjerstad on the 40-man, infielder/outfielder Terrin Vavra was recalled from Norfolk and placed on the 60-day injured list with a strained right shoulder.

Of all the moves, the most significant is the promotion of Kjerstad, as it’s yet another instance of the O’s promoting a highly-touted prospect to their major league club. The past six years have seen the club endure a significant rebuild, finishing last in the American League East four times, losing 108 games or more in three of those. That’s allowed them to build a pipeline of young talent that has started to feed into for the big league team. Youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and others have helped the club jump to a record of 91-54, the best such mark in the American League this year.

Kjerstad, 24, was taken with the second overall pick in 2020. His professional debut was delayed by myocarditis, which prevented him from taking part in any official game action in 2021. He split last year between Single-A and High-A, hitting a combined .309/.394/.457 between those two levels. This year, he’s gone through Double-A and Triple-A with a combined slash of .303/.376/.528, which translates to a wRC+ of 132.

The outfielder is currently considered the #44 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #24 by MLB Pipeline, #49 by ESPN and #56 by Keith Law of The Athletic. FanGraphs doesn’t currently provide specific rankings beyond the 50 Future Value guys on the 20-80 scouting scale, but Kjerstad is one of many unnumbered 45+ guys that are lumped together around the back half of the top 100. He’s considered a bat-first prospect, with his power his standout tool, but it’s expected he can be a fine corner outfielder from a defensive standpoint.

It was reported last night that a promotion of Kjerstad was possible, in conjunction with Ryan Mountcastle battling a shoulder injury. Mountcastle hasn’t landed on the injured list as of yet, but it seems Kjerstad will push into the mix regardless. Mountcastle has been the regular option at first base, but perhaps his injury means Ryan O’Hearn takes over that spot and spends less time in the outfield corners. That would perhaps leave Kjerstad, Anthony Santander, Aaron Hicks and Austin Hays splitting the duties of left field, right field and designated hitter. Kjerstad also played some first base in the minors and could be a factor there.

The O’s are about to begin what may be their most important series of the regular season. The Rays are just two games back in the East division and the two clubs are set to face off in a four-game series that starts tonight in Baltimore. Both teams are sure to make the postseason but the division winner will secure a bye through the first round, making the distinction significant. Kjerstad isn’t in the starting lineup tonight but should make his debut at some point in the next few weeks and might even secure himself a spot on the postseason roster.

With so little time left in the season, Kjerstad won’t be able to exhaust his rookie status and will therefore still be on prospect lists in the upcoming offseason. That means he will still be eligible for the “prospect promotion incentives” that are present in the current collective bargaining agreement. That could allow the O’s to recoup a bonus draft pick in the future, depending on how Kjerstad fares in awards voting going forward.

As for Vavra, he was with the big league club earlier this year but has been on optional assignment since early June. While in the minors, he missed over two months from mid-June to late August, when he began a rehab assignment. The club informed reporters last week, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that Vavra’s rehab was being shut down for further testing. There’s not much detail on his injury or timeline but it seems his season is over, based on today’s transfer.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs To Promote Pete Crow-Armstrong

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The Cubs are calling up top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’s expected to be activated prior to tomorrow’s game. The Cubs will need to make a 40-man roster move in order to formally select Crow-Armstrong’s contract.

Selected by the Mets with the No. 19 overall pick back in 2020, the now-21-year-old Crow-Armstrong was the headline prospect in the 2021 trade sending Javier Baez and Trevor Williams from Chicago to New York. Crow-Armstrong was already a prospect of note at the time, but his stock has skyrocketed since that swap; he currently ranks 12th on the leaguewide top-100 prospect lists at both Baseball America and MLB.com, while The Athletic’s Keith Law tabbed him 18th and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pegs him 23rd.

While he’s long drawn praise as a 70- or even 80-grade defender in center field (on the 20-80 scale), Crow-Armstrong has grown into more power since being traded to the Cubs and now has the look of a potential five-tool center fielder. He’s split the current season between Double-A and Triple-A, turning in a combined .283/.365/.511 batting line with 20 home runs, 26 doubles, seven triples and 37 steals (in 47 tries).

Crow-Armstrong has whiffed a bit more often than the Cubs would prefer to see, punching out at a 25.8% rate against a higher-than-average (but far from elite) 9.2% walk rate. He’s also a 21-year-old facing much older and more experienced competition, so there’s likely some hope that he can continue to polish those bat-to-ball skills and refine his pitch selection as he ages.

The big picture hope for Crow-Armstrong is that he can become the Cubs’ everyday center fielder, holding down that position for the six-plus seasons which they’ll control him via arbitration. In the short-term, however, “PCA” will give the team an alternative to the struggling Mike Tauchman, who’s batting just .163/.295/.188 in 95 plate appearances over the past month. Cody Bellinger, of course, can handle center field as well, but he’s spent a fair bit of time at first base and designated hitter since returning from a knee injury earlier this summer. Crow-Armstrong can potentially allow him to continue doing so while still upgrading the outfield defense and perhaps providing some more offense than they’re currently receiving from Tauchman.

Even if he doesn’t play everyday, Crow-Armstrong adds a dynamic defender and plus threat on the basepaths who can be used late in games. That includes both in the regular season and potentially into October. While Crow-Armstrong wasn’t on the 40-man roster when the playoff eligibility deadline passed, he was still in the organization at that point, meaning the Cubs can petition the league to add him to the playoff roster in place of an injured player. Teams do this every year, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to suit up during postseason play.

In terms of service time considerations, Crow-Armstrong will remain under club control for six full seasons (plus the handful of days he’ll accrue late in the current year). Barring any future optional assignments that impact the trajectory, he’ll be controllable through the 2029 season and eligible for arbitration following the 2026 campaign.

Also of note for the Cubs is that the looming promotion to the big leagues won’t impact Crow-Armstrong’s rookie status for the 2024 season. He’ll surely be on every major top-100 prospect ranking heading into the 2024 season, meaning he’ll remain eligible for the new collective bargaining agreement’s “prospect promotion incentives,” which could net the Cubs bonus draft picks based on how he fares in future award voting.

Rangers Promote Evan Carter, Place Adolis García On IL

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September 8: Texas officially announced Carter’s promotion and García’s IL placement. The 40-man move is the transfer of Brad Miller from the 10-day to the 60-day IL. Miller has been out since August 2 with a left hamstring strain. He’ll be out for 60 days from the time of that initial placement, meaning he’ll miss the rest of the regular season. Miller could return for the playoffs if Texas qualifies, though he wouldn’t be a lock to appear on the postseason roster regardless.

September 7: The Rangers informed reporters, including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, that they are promoting outfield prospect Evan Carter. He will take the active roster spot of Adolis García, who will head to the 10-day injured list with a right patellar tendon strain. Carter will require a corresponding move to be added to the 40-man roster, which will be reported on Friday, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today.

It was reported earlier that the Rangers were considering a promotion of Carter, a report which preceded García’s injury. It’s possible that Carter may have been promoted this week regardless, but it seems the issue in García’s knee gave the club enough incentive to pull the trigger and make it happen.

It’s a bit of a belated birthday present for Carter, who turned 21 just over a week ago. The 50th overall selection from the 2020 draft, Carter wasn’t a high-profile prospect at that time but has shot up the rankings since then. Last year, he hit .287/.388/.476 through 100 games at High-A for a wRC+ of 136, indicating he was 36% better than league average. He also stole 26 bases and got a late-season bump to Double-A.

This year, he hit .284/.411/.451 in 97 Double-A games for a 132 wRC+, stealing another 22 bases in the process. He was recently promoted to Triple-A for eight games there but will now get a chance to come up to the big leagues.

Carter is currently considered the #10 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #32 by FanGraphs, #8 by MLB Pipeline, #14 by ESPN and #10 by Keith Law of The Athletic. Each outlet considers him a capable center fielder with a keen eye at the plate, as he has produced double-digit walk rates at each stop of the minor league ladder. The major long-term question seems to be whether or not he will have the power to be more than a speed-and-defense specialist. He hit 11 home runs at High-A last year and has 12 at Double-A this year. But he has a respectable floor even if the power doesn’t develop, thanks to his other tools.

He will now have a chance to see how he fares at the major league level, replacing García, who injured himself crashing into the wall while attempting to catch a home run. Per Landry’s reporting, the Rangers are cautiously optimistic that García has a chance to return this year, but the window will be tight. There are just over three weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, which will be a narrow timeframe for García to return in.

He has been a potent yet volatile part of the club’s lineup, having socked 34 home runs this year but also striking out in 27.4% of his plate appearances. The past month has been a notable low point, as he’s hit just .152/.236/.333 from August 7 to the present, striking out in 37.3% of his trips to the plate in that time. That rough stretch for García has coincided with the club going on a terrible cold streak, falling from first to third in the American League West and half a game behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot.

Recent results notwithstanding, García has been one of the club’s best players this year and it will be a challenge to proceed without him. The club will hope that Carter can provide a jolt and their pitching staff can get its act together as they look to finish strong and make the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Carter won’t have enough time to exhaust his rookie status in what remains of the 2023 season, which is notable under the current collective bargaining agreement. If clubs carry a rookie and top prospect on their roster for a full service year, that player can earn the club an extra draft pick by winning Rookie of the Year honors or placing in the top three of Most Valuable Player voting during pre-arbitration years.

Given his lofty prospect status, Carter will be in the mix for those prospect promotion incentives, but that will be a matter for another day. For now, he will be focused on making his major league debut, jumping right into a playoff race and into the Texas outfield alongside Leody Taveras, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski and J.P. Martínez.

D-Backs Promote Jordan Lawlar

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September 7: The Diamondbacks have now made Lawlar’s promotion official, announced that move and Ahmed’s DFA today. They also activated catcher Seby Zavala, claimed off waivers this week, and recalled right-hander Ryne Nelson. Catcher José Herrera and right-hander Bryce Jarvis were optioned in corresponding moves for Zavala and Nelson.

September 6: The Diamondbacks are calling up top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). They’ll presumably make the move official tomorrow in advance of a pivotal four-game series against the Cubs. Arizona is designating Nick Ahmed for assignment in a corresponding move.

Lawlar seems likely to take over as the primary third baseman. Piecoro wrote this afternoon that the Snakes were considering him as an option at the hot corner. Lawlar made his first professional start there with Triple-A Reno last night. That’s obviously a very limited look, but teams generally feel comfortable moving shortstops to other infield positions.

A Dallas native, Lawlar was regarded as one of the top prospects in the 2021 draft class coming out of high school. He somewhat surprisingly lasted until the sixth pick, though Arizona went above slot with the third-highest signing bonus to add him to the system.

Lawlar’s draft season was cut short by an injury to his left shoulder, which required surgery. He didn’t show any signs of rust the following year, though. The right-handed hitter put together a .303/.401/.509 batting line in his first full professional season. He reached Double-A Amarillo late last year, an impressive achievement for a player who had just turned 20 years old.

That huge showing cemented Lawlar’s status as one of the sport’s most talented prospects. Arizona assigned him back to Amarillo to begin the 2023 campaign. He started relatively slowly but has caught fire since the weather warmed up. Lawlar has an OPS north of .900 in the minors for each month since June. He hit .263/.366/.474 in 410 Double-A plate appearances overall to earn a bump to Reno in mid-August. Lawlar has only appeared in 16 games there, mashing at a .358/.438/.612 clip.

While he’s had the benefit of playing in favorable hitting environments, Lawlar’s cumulative .278/.378/.496 line on the year is strong. He’s walking at a quality 11.4% clip against a decent 20.6% strikeout rate. He has popped 20 homers, 23 doubles and four triples and gone 36-41 in stolen base attempts.

Baseball America recently slotted Lawlar as the sport’s #9 overall prospect, while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN placed him 25th. As his numbers indicate, he’s generally viewed as a well-rounded player with solid tools across the board. McDaniel suggests that a lack of a standout carrying tool could keep Lawlar more as a quality regular than a true star. Even if Lawlar doesn’t have quite the same upside as some top prospects, most evaluators seem confident in him being a productive everyday player at the major league level.

Whether that’ll be the case immediately could have an impact on this year’s playoff picture. Arizona beat Colorado this afternoon and remains tied with Miami, half a game behind the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs occupy the second Wild Card position, so Arizona has a chance to directly make up ground when they head to Wrigley.

There’s risk with any prospect, particularly one who only has a year and a half of minor league reps under his belt. Yet Lawlar brings more offensive upside than Arizona’s current third base mix. The Snakes have used a combination of Jace Peterson, Emmanuel Rivera and occasionally Evan Longoria at the hot corner. While Rivera had played reasonably well early in the season, they’ve gotten almost nothing out of the position lately. Arizona third basemen are hitting .195/.298/.305 since the All-Star Break.

Geraldo Perdomo has also cooled off at shortstop after an All-Star first half. Yet he’s playing well enough overall to keep the hold onto that job, seemingly pushing Lawlar to the other left side infield position for now. It stands to reason Arizona still views Lawlar as a shortstop option if Perdomo gets injured or goes through an extended slump.

He’ll retain his rookie eligibility going into next season. If the D-Backs carry him for a full service year, Lawlar could net them an extra draft choice if he plays well enough to win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons. That’s a much further off possibility. For now, his focus will be on trying to help a young and increasingly exciting Arizona team to the postseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Select Chasen Shreve, Promote Connor Phillips

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft of the 15-day IL with a stress reaction in his big toe, placed left-hander Brandon Williamson on the COVID-19 IL, selected the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve, and added right-hander Connor Phillips to the roster as a substitute player. Players on the COVID-19 IL don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster, so the Reds have plenty of temporary flexibility due to the number of players currently shelved with the virus. As a substitute player, Phillips is only temporarily on the roster and can be returned to the minors without being waived. As the club selected Shreve’s contract, he counts against the club’s 40-man roster in a more permanent fashion, though no corresponding move is needed at this time.

Phillips, 22, will make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. MLB Pipeline ranks the young right-hander as the club’s fourth best prospect and the 70th best prospect in the sport. He opened the year with a dominant performance at Double-A, posting a 3.34 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work with an incredible 39.1% strikeout rate. Since receiving a promotion to Triple-A, however, Phillips has begun to struggle. His 40 1/3 innings at the level have yielded a 4.69 ERA, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 24.2% and his walk rate has ballooned to a massive 16.9%.

Given his age, prospect pedigree and dominance as recently as earlier this season, it’s certainly possible Phillips has a lengthy and successful big league career in his future. In the short-term, however, he’ll need to significantly cut down on the free passes if he hopes to help the 70-67 Reds fight their way into one of the NL Wild Card spots with key pitchers like Williamson and right-hander Hunter Greene out for an unknown amount of time due to the clubhouse’s COVID outbreak.

Shreve, 33, joined the Reds on a minor league deal last month. He had spent the 2023 season with the Tigers prior to that, pitching to a roughly league average 4.79 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 47 appearances with the club. The lefty veteran is in his tenth year as a major league pitcher, with a career 3.88 ERA. While he’s mostly looked the part of a middle reliever throughout his career, it’s worth noting he’s posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters this season. With Sam Moll as the only other southpaw in the Cincinnati bullpen as things stand, Shreve seems likely to be able to carve out a specialized role in the Reds’ bullpen going forward.

Joining several of his teammates on the COVID IL is Williamson, who has looked the part of a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter during his rookie campaign. Across 19 starts with the Reds this year, Williamson has posted a 4.20 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.51 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work. The loss of a reliable rotation arm like Williamson further compounds the club’s pitching woes. In addition to Greene’s move to the COVID IL, the Reds recently lost any hope of left-hander Nick Lodolo returning this season.

Williamson isn’t the only starter hitting the shelf today, either, as Ashcraft moves to the 15-day IL following his start against the Cubs yesterday, in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work while striking out six. It’s been an up-and-down season for Ashcraft, who dominated to a 2.00 ERA in his first six starts this season before posting a brutal 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts. Since June 30, Ashcraft has posted a 2.58 ERA reminiscent of his strong start to the season, though his 19.8% strikeout rate and eight homers allowed in seven starts both leave his long-term viability as a rotation arm in question. Overall, he’s delivered a 4.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work this season.

Without Williamson and Ashcraft, the club’s rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty, with only rookie Andrew Abbott as a surefire big league starter on the roster. Lyon Richardson took the ball against the Cubs for the second game of a doubleheader last night, but sports an ugly 6.75 ERA across three starts in the majors. The club will likely have to turn to the likes of Double-A swingman Carson Spiers and journeyman Brett Kennedy to take on innings with most of the club’s rotation out of commission.

Mets To Promote Ronny Mauricio

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The Mets are promoting infield prospect Ronny Mauricio, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (Twitter link). He’ll join the club on Friday when active rosters expand from 26 to 28 players.

Mauricio, 22, joins the major league team for the first time. He has been one of the most highly-touted players in the system since signing out of the Dominican Republic during the 2017-18 amateur period. Baseball America has slotted him among the Mets’ five most talented farmhands at the start of each of the last five years, while he placed among the league’s Top 100 talents at BA every season from 2019-22.

A switch-hitter, Mauricio draws praise from evaluators for significant power potential from both sides of the plate. He’s an excellent athlete with a strong throwing arm and has a shot to stick in the middle infield. Few minor league players can match Mauricio’s physical ability, which he has put on display in the upper minors over the past couple seasons.

Mauricio has posted consecutive 20-20 seasons, spending last year in Double-A before moving up to Triple-A Syracuse for this year. He connected on 26 longballs with 20 stolen bases a year ago. Through 115 contests with Syracuse, he has hit 23 homers and gone 24-31 on the basepaths.

The main question is whether Mauricio is a selective enough hitter to continue performing against MLB competition. This year’s 6.6% walk rate is his highest at any full-season level but is still a couple points below the MLB average. The lack of free passes have generally resulted in below-average OBP marks as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. His prospect stock has dimmed slightly as a result. Baseball America no longer includes him in their Top 100, though he still ranked sixth in the organization on their midseason update. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN left him just outside a recent Top 50 list.

Mauricio is still a very good prospect, albeit perhaps more high-variance than most top minor league talents. To his credit, he has continued to perform well at the upper levels — generally against slightly older competition. Mauricio is hitting .295/.349/.511 across 527 Triple-A plate appearances. Alongside his marginally improved walk rate, he has cut his strikeouts to a lower than average 18.2% clip — nearly five points better than his Double-A figure. Mauricio has performed well from both sides of the dish, hitting .298/.358/.521 against southpaws while posting a .284/.316/.477 slash versus right-handed pitching.

The Mets have used Mauricio at shortstop for the majority of his pro career. He has logged nearly 500 innings of second base work in Syracuse this year. The latter position seems his likeliest fit at the MLB level given the presence of Francisco Lindor in Queens. New York could kick Jeff McNeil into left field while taking reps from Rafael Ortega as they get their first look at Mauricio to close a disappointing season.

Mauricio will retain his rookie eligibility headed into next year, leaving open the possibility of him netting the club a future draft choice if he meets the criteria for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. He was already added to the 40-man roster two offseasons ago, so the Mets won’t have to make any additional moves to bring him up on Friday.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees To Promote Jasson Domínguez, Austin Wells

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The Yankees are calling up outfield prospect Jasson Domínguez, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Catching prospect Austin Wells will be promoted as well, per Greg Joyce and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Both looming promotions were reported on earlier today. Neither player is on the 40-man roster but the Yanks already opened a couple of spots by releasing Josh Donaldson and Spencer Howard. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 on Friday.

Domínguez, 20, was a much-hyped prospect even before joining the affiliated ranks, signing for a huge $5.1MM bonus in 2019 that accounted for the vast majority of the Yankees’ bonus pool that year. “The Martian” has since climbed the ranks of the minor leagues, showcasing the potential to be an all-around contributor.

After some tepid results in 2021, the switch-hitter went through three different levels last year, going from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. In 120 total games, he hit 16 home runs and stole 20 bases. He struck out in 24.2% of his plate appearances but also walked at a 13.6% rate. His .273/.375/.461 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 135, indicating he was 35% above average. This year, he hit .254/.367/.414 in 109 Double-A games for a 117 wRC+. His 25.6% strikeout rate is on the high side but he’s also walked at a 15.2% clip and stolen 37 bases. He was recently promoted to Triple-A and mashed in eight games there.

Defensively, Domínguez is a center fielder, though there’s much debate among prospect evaluators as to whether he’s a long-term fit there. Even if he has to move to a corner, he’s considered to have the arm strength necessary to be viable in right, though that would put more pressure on his bat than if he were to stick in center. Domínguez is currently ranked the #60 prospect in the league at Baseball America, #34 at FanGraphs, #78 at MLB Pipeline, #16 at ESPN and got the #27 spot from Keith Law of The Athletic.

Wells, 24, was a first-round pick of the Yanks in 2020, getting selected 28th overall. He’s considered a bat-first catcher, hitting left-handed, though many evaluators think he’s elevated his defensive reputation as he’s approached the majors.

He’s played in 95 games this year across three different minor league levels, hitting 17 home runs in that time and walking in 11.1% of his plate appearances. His combined slash of .243/.335/.447 amounts to a wRC+ of 105 and he also stole seven bases. BA considers him the #81 prospect in the league. He didn’t crack any of the other four aforementioned lists, though ESPN lists him as a “late cut” on their midseason update, which was capped at 50 names.

The Yankees are 64-68 and 11 games out of a playoff spot with just over a month left on the schedule. They have clearly shifted from contention mode, placing outfielder Harrison Bader on waivers this week, willing to essentially give him away for cost savings.  They will use what is left of the season to evaluate some of their younger players, having recently promoted Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza, with Domínguez and Wells now joining them.

Assuming Bader is claimed off waivers tomorrow, it’s possible Domínguez gets to finish the year as the club’s regular center fielder, with the Yanks taking that time to evaluate him before deciding how to proceed this winter. Behind the plate, Jose Trevino is out for the season due to wrist surgery. The club has been using Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt as their catching duo lately but Wells will presumably take some of their playing time the rest of the way.

Neither player will have enough time to exhaust their rookie eligibility here in 2023, meaning they will still be rookies in 2024. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the prospect promotion incentive can potentially provide extra draft picks to clubs who promote top prospects for an entire year of service time. To qualify, a player must be on two of the Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline in the preceding offseason and then earn a full year of service time as a rookie. If they win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in MVP voting during pre-arbitration seasons, the parent club earns an extra draft pick in the following season just after the first round. Wells may or may not be in that camp, depending on how the offseason lists shake out, but Domínguez seems like a lock to have PPI status next year.

Though it’s undoubtedly been a disappointing season in the Bronx, fans will be able get a glimpse at some things to be excited about for future seasons, as they watch some players who could perhaps help the Yankees in future seasons.

Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs To Promote Jordan Wicks

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2:07PM: Wicks will actually start today’s game, as the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Javier Assad will now start Sunday instead of today.

10:13AM: The Cubs are set to call up left-hander Jordan Wicks, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (X links).  There had been plenty of speculation that Wicks was on the verge of a call-up, and now the southpaw (who turns 24 on September 1) will get an early birthday present Sunday when he makes his MLB debut in a start against the Pirates.

Wicks was the 21st overall pick of the 2021 draft, drawing Chicago’s attention after a standout collegiate career at Kansas State.  That success has translated into a pretty quick rise through the farm system, as Wicks has now reached the majors a little over two years since his draft date.  Making his Triple-A debut just this past June, Wicks has a 3.82 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate over the limited sample of 33 innings for Triple-A Iowa.

This was enough to earn Wicks at least one start at the big league level, as it is possible he might be quickly ticketed back to Triple-A after helping the Cubs get through an extended stretch of games.  Marcus Stroman’s injury seemed to herald Drew Smyly’s return to the rotation, but Chicago has instead decided to keep Smyly in the bullpen, creating the need for a new starter on Sunday.  Wicks has pitched beyond the fifth inning only once in his 20 minor league games this season, so Sunday’s game might be more of a piggyback situation, with Smyly or other relievers stepping in before Pirates batters can face Wicks for a second time.

Still, even a cup of coffee in the majors is a huge moment in Wicks’ career, and it can serve as an audition for a longer look once rosters expand in September, or going into next season.  Stroman can opt out of his contract and the Cubs might not exercise Kyle Hendricks’ club option, leaving some possible rotation spots open heading into Spring Training.  Wicks has an opportunity to turn some heads and get himself into that conversation, with his minor league resume already standing out.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Wicks 51st on his preseason top-100 listing, though Wicks has yet to crack the top 100 for either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline in their preseason or midseason rankings.  BA places Wicks as the eighth-best prospect in the Cubs’ farm system and Pipeline has him 10th, and all of the pundits feel he can become a big league-caliber starter in the middle or back of a rotation.  Wicks’ outstanding changeup is the highlight of his five-pitch arsenal, though his slider is the only other offering that shows above-average potential.  For more on Wicks’ development, James Fegan of the Chicago Sun-Times published a piece today with quotes from Wicks and Triple-A pitching coach Ron Villone about the youngster’s approach on the mound.

Giants Promote Kyle Harrison

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August 22: The Giants have now made this official, selecting Harrison and reinstating righty Ryan Walker from the paternity list. To open active roster spots, right-hander Sean Hjelle and outfielder Heliot Ramos were optioned. To open a 40-man spot for Harrison, infielder Mark Mathias was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Mathias was placed on the injured list a week ago due to a right shoulder strain. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from August 14, which rules him out until the middle of October. Barring a lengthy postseason run by the Giants, it seems his season is over.

August 20, 3:58 pm: Giants manager Gabe Kapler confirmed to reporters, including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, that Harrison was poised to be promoted. He’ll start the Giants’ game against the Phillies in Philadelphia on Tuesday.

10:14 am: The Giants are calling up top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (via X).  Earlier today, the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly wrote that San Francisco was “strongly considering” promoting Harrison during an upcoming series with the Phillies, and Murray says that Harrison is being aimed to start Tuesday’s game.  San Francisco will need to make another transaction before then to create a 40-man roster spot for the left-hander.

The promotion makes for a nice late birthday gift for Harrison, who turned 22 on August 12.  It is quite possible that the southpaw would have already made his MLB debut if it wasn’t for a hamstring strain that put him on the injured list for almost all of July, but after pitching in three Triple-A games since his return from the minor league IL, Harrison has been deemed ready for his first taste of the Show.

It doesn’t seem as though Harrison will be taking on a full-fledged starter role, as Baggarly notes that Harrison might work in more of a piggyback capacity on Tuesday, perhaps not throwing more than 3-4 innings.  Harrison has had a limited workload for much of the minor league season, as he has topped the 80-pitch threshold only three times and has only once thrown as many as five innings in a single outing.

With this in mind, Harrison looks to become the latest member of a patchwork Giants rotation that has recently featured only two regular starters.  Beyond Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, a group led by Jakob Junis, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, and Ross Stripling have made limited starts, piggyback outings, or have worked as bulk pitchers behind an opener.  This collection took a hit yesterday when Stripling was placed on the 15-day IL due to a back strain, and Sean Hjelle was recalled from Triple-A to work as a long reliever or bulk pitcher.

It’s not an ideal situation for a team fighting for a wild card berth, so there will be a bit of a bigger spotlight than usual on Harrison as he becomes a big leaguer.  However, Harrison has dealt with plenty of hype as his prospect stock has risen over the last few years, since being selected by the Giants in the third round of the 2020 draft.  In recent midseason updates to their prospect rankings, MLB Pipeline listed Harrison as the 20th-best prospect in the sport, while Baseball America slotted him 35th on their latest listing.

There’s no secret about Harrison’s biggest weak point, as he has a hefty 16.3% walk rate over 67 2/3 innings with Triple-A Sacramento this year.  This shaky control (and pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League) has contributed to Harrison’s 4.52 ERA, though he also has a tremendous 35.6% strikeout rate.

Both Pipeline and BA give Harrison a 70-grade for his fastball and a 60-grade for his slider, and he also has a good changeup that is still improving.  Two plus pitches and the possibility of a third has created plenty of buzz about Harrison as a possible front-of-the-rotation starter, though the big question is naturally whether or not Harrison can improve his control and command.  As Pipeline’s scouting report puts it, Harrison is “still learning to harness his enhanced stuff, though his ability to miss bats in the strike zone with all three of his offerings means that he doesn’t need to locate them with precision.”

However the Giants opt to manage Harrison’s workload among the rest of the pitchers, it seems likely that the club will limit him to less than 50 innings in the regular season, so he can retain his rookie eligibility for 2024.  As per the rules of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, the Giants can receive a bonus pick in the 2025 draft if Harrison earns a full year of MLB service time in 2024, and he either wins the NL Rookie of the Year award or has a top-three finish in NL Cy Young voting during any of his pre-arbitration seasons.  Harrison must be ranked as a top-100 prospect by at least two of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or ESPN.com in their pre-2024 lists to fully qualify as a PPI-eligible player, thought that seems like a foregone conclusion.

Beyond the 50-inning threshold, pitchers also have to have less than 46 days on a Major League roster to retain rookie eligibility.  That date on the 2023 league calendar passed last week, so it isn’t surprising that Harrison and other notable prospects like the Reds’ Noelvi Marte, the Cardinals’ Masyn Winn, and the Angels’ Nolan Schanuel have all been called up within the last few days alone.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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