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Dodgers To Promote River Ryan Following All-Star Break

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The Dodgers are planning to promote right-handed pitching prospect River Ryan to the majors following the All Star break, according to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. It’s not currently known which specific day Ryan is expected to take the ball, and Ardaya also notes that it’s unclear how long the Dodgers expect to keep the right-hander in the big league rotation. Ryan is not yet on the 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move will be necessary before Ryan can be promoted.

Ryan, 26 next month, was an 11th-round pick by the Padres in the 2021 draft who was acquired by the Dodgers prior to his pro debut in the deal that sent Matt Beaty to San Diego. Ryan raised his prospect profile last season by impressing with a 3.33 ERA and a 23.7% strikeout rate in 97 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year. The start to the righty’s 2024 season was delayed by a shoulder issue, but he returned to the mound in early June and has looked good ever since. He’s been nothing short of dominant in five starts at the Triple-A level this year as he’s posted a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings of work while punching out 28.8% of batters faced.

That’s a smaller body of work for a prospect to get at the highest level of the minors than is typically expected, but it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Dodgers feel the need to turn to Ryan given the big league club’s rotation woes. Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are all currently on the IL, joined Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, and Clayton Kershaw. No one in that latter group has been healthy enough to pitch in the majors this year, and that list doesn’t include right-handed youngster Nick Frasso, who has missed the entire 2024 season due to surgery but is on the minor league injured list. The club’s many upper-level pitching injuries have been further exacerbated by the struggles of youngster Bobby Miller, who has an 8.07 ERA in seven big league starts and was recently optioned to the minor leagues.

That’s left the Dodgers in a somewhat desperate situation regarding the rotation. James Paxton is the only starter currently in the club’s rotation who was an established big leaguer prior to this season, and he’s currently joined by rookies Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobleski. While both Stone and Knack have excelled this year, with Stone in particularly quickly establishing himself as among the club’s best options even when the rotation is healthy, Wrobleski has struggled in his brief time in the rotation and the Dodgers lack a fifth starter even with him in the fold. That’s caused the club to start right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. today despite claiming him off waivers from the Pirates just a day ago.

While he’s now seemingly being forced into action by the large number of injuries in the majors, Ryan is nonetheless one of the top pitching prospects in the club’s system. Baseball America currently rates him as the tenth-best prospect in the Dodgers farm, while MLB Pipeline rates him fourth behind only catcher Dalton Rushing, outfielder Josue De Paula, and Frasso. The Athletic’s Keith Law is perhaps highest on Ryan and ranked him 33rd on his preseason top 100 prospects list. Ryan features an upper-90s fastball as part of a four-pitch mix, and services generally seem to be in agreement that the righty has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter, though his lack of professional innings seem to give some outlets pause.

Twins Promote Brooks Lee

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The Twins announced that they have selected the contract of prospect Brooks Lee.  Infielder Royce Lewis has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right adductor strain, opening an active roster spot for Lee. To get him onto the 40-man, right-hander Brock Stewart has been transferred to the 60-day IL. Declan Goff and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North first reported Lee’s promotion on X. The club’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey says that Lewis has a Grade 2 strain and will be out at least through the All-Star break, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press on X.

Lee, now 23, was selected with the eighth overall pick in 2022 and signed with an overslot bonus of $5.675MM. Since then, in short, he has mashed his way up the minor league ladder. That started right after he was drafted, as he got into 31 games in 2022, seeing time at the Complex League level, High-A and then Double-A. He produced a line of .303/.388/.451 in those games, walking at an 11.5% clip and striking out just 14.4% of the time.

He returned to Double-A last year and carried that kind of production over in his 87 games there in 2023. He had 11 home runs, a 10.3% walk rate, 15.8% strikeout rate and .292/.365/.476 batting line. He was promoted to Triple-A and his numbers dipped, though the rates were still good and his batting average on balls in play dropped from .325 at Double-A to .258 at the level above.

This year, a lower back strain put him on the minor league injured list to start the year. He didn’t make his season debut until May 20, getting some rehab games at the Complex League level and Single-A. He then was bumped to Triple-A and has hit seven homers in just 20 games there, walking 9.6% of the time and striking out at only a 13.8% clip. He currently sports a monster line of .329/.394/.635 in those 20 games for the Saints this year, which translates to a 159 wRC+.

That almost constant barrage of offense has him unsurprisingly ranked as one of the better prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him in the #28 spot, FanGraphs at #49 and MLB Pipeline at #13. ESPN put him 27th in their May update while Keith Law of The Athletic had him 31st coming into the year.

Lee has largely played shortstop in his career thus far, though there’s some disagreement about whether he’ll stick there. His speed is only average but he is considered to have a reliability at the position that makes him passable there. With Carlos Correa pretty firmly implanted at that spot for the Twins for now, it’s been speculated that Lee may be ticketed for a move to either second or third, with his arm considered strong enough for the hot corner.

For much of the recent past, the Twins have had too many infielders to find time for everyone, so much so that Jorge Polanco was flipped to the Mariners in the offseason. Even with him out of the picture, they’ve had Lewis, Carlos Santana, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, José Miranda, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer and Austin Martin in the infield mix alongside Correa.

But that picture has gotten a bit less crowded as the season has gone along. Julien struggled and got himself optioned to Triple-A. Kirilloff is on the injured list. Farmer is a glove-first bench player who isn’t hitting much this year. Castro and Martin have been bouncing between the infield and outfield.

Lately, the club has been rolling with a primary alignment of Santana at first and Correa at short, while Lewis and Miranda have shared third base and the designated hitter slot, with second base duties rotating between Castro, Farmer and Martin.

Getting Lee into that mix is easier now that Lewis is headed for yet another stint on the injured list. The incredibly talented but oft-injured player has hit .303/.361/.584 since his May 2022 promotion, but with various injuries limiting him to just 94 big league contests. He was removed from last night’s game with some groin tightness and Dan Hayes of The Athletic relayed after the contest that Lewis was headed for an MRI.

Time will tell exactly how Lee is used, and whether or not this is a brief stint to cover for Lewis or if he is in the majors for good. In the long term, their infield logjam is likely to continue into the future. Of the aforementioned group, only Santana and Farmer are slated for free agency after this year. Farmer has a mutual option on his deal but those pacts are almost never triggered by both sides.

For now, Lee will get a shot against big league pitching and will try to cement himself as a key part of the long-term infield in Minnesota, as well as helping them return to the postseason this year. The club is currently 48-37 and in possession of a Wild Card spot in the American League. If Lee is up for good, he will qualify for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030, though future optional assignments could alter those timelines.

As for Stewart, his transfer was a formality as he’s already been on the IL for 60 days at this point. He was placed there May 2 due to right shoulder tendinitis. He is scheduled for some upcoming bullpen sessions, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune on X, but will need some more time to ramp up.

Blue Jays Place Bo Bichette On Injured List, Recall Orelvis Martinez

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The Blue Jays announced a series of roster moves today, with shortstop Bo Bichette placed on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain, retroactive to June 15. Infielder Orelvis Martinez was recalled and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. They also made a bullpen swap, with left-hander Brandon Eisert optioned as right-hander Ryan Burr was recalled.

Bichette hasn’t played since Friday due to this calf issue. The Jays didn’t place him on the IL right away as they monitored the development of the injury, but it seems it didn’t heal up as hoped and the determination was made to place him on the shelf. Since the move is backdated, he could be back in as soon as a week’s time if he feels better. Manager John Schneider says that is indeed the hope, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X.

It’s been a rough season overall for Bichette, who is hitting just .237/.286/.342 on the year, a far cry from the .299/.340/.487 line he carried into the season. It’s possible that some of that is batted ball luck, as he had a .349 batting average on balls in play coming into the year but has a .271 BABIP in 2024, but he also has just four home runs this season and a 4.7% barrel rate that’s roughly half of the 9.2% rate he has for his entire career.

He may have been turning things around after a really rough start, as he slashed .280/.321/.410 in the month of May for a 108 wRC+. His numbers in June ticked down again, though it’s possible that the calf had started nagging at him before it actually took him out of the lineup. Regardless, he’ll have at least a week to rest up and take a breather.

His injury will allow Martinez to come up to the majors for the first time. Now 22 years old, he was a fairly high-profile international signing out of the Dominican Republic, securing a bonus of $3.51MM from the Jays in 2018. As he has climbed the minor league ladder, he has made good on that strong bonus by becoming a top 100 prospect, with his home run power standing out as his most exciting tool.

In 2021, he got into 98 games between Single-A and High-A, hitting 28 home runs in that time. He was promoted to Double-A in 2022 and there was a bit of concern with his early results there. He struck out at a 28.5% clip and slashed just .203/.286/.446 that year. But the Jays still didn’t want him exposed in that year’s Rule 5 draft and added him to their 40-man roster.

He returned to Double-A to start 2023 and the results were much better. He cut his strikeout rate to 20.5% and also drew walks at a huge 14% clip. He hit 17 home runs in 70 games and slashed .226/.339/.485 for a wRC+ of 122. He was promoted to Triple-A in July of last year and now has 118 games for the Bisons under his belt with 27 home runs. His 25.4% strikeout rate in that time is a bit high but he’s also drawn walks at a 9.7% clip.

There is some slight platoon concern, as Martinez has hit .321/.406/.661 against lefties this year but just .240/.324/.480 the rest of the time, but he’s also still quite young and has shown an ability to adjust when challenged.

Defense is also a bit of question mark for Martinez. He spent a lot of time at shortstop in previous seasons but hasn’t played there in 2024, mostly lining up at second base with a bit of time at third base also mixed in. Despite the flaws, Martinez has enough upside at the plate that he’s considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him #54 overall, FanGraphs #71 and MLB Pipeline #68. Coming into the season, Keith Law of The Athletic put him in the #57 spot, though Kiley McDaniel of ESPN didn’t have Martinez on his list.

Since Martinez hasn’t been playing shortstop this year, he won’t be a direct replacement for Bichette. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been holding down that spot with Bichette out of action in recent days and will likely continue in that role, with Ernie Clement and Addison Barger capable of chipping in as well.

Martinez will be in the mix for some playing time at second and third alongside Clement, Barger, Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz. The club has also experimented with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting some time at third and he could be in the mix there as well.

The Jays have been struggling to find offense this year and recently cut both Daniel Vogelbach and Cavan Biggio from the roster, calling up Horwitz and Barger in an attempt to find some extra runs. The recall of Martinez was more motivated by Bichette’s injury but could perhaps help in that regard as well, though it’s possible it’s just a brief stay on the roster if Bichette is indeed back quickly.

The Jays are currently sporting a record of 35-37, not completely buried in the standings but they’re five games back of a playoff spot at the moment. They are reportedly going to wait until after the All-Star break to decide on how they approach the July 30 deadline.

If the recent roster shakeup can help them climb in the standings, then perhaps they can avoid a summer selloff. If not, the rumors on players nearing free agency will grow louder. That’s particularly true of Guerrero and Bichette, who are each set to hit the open market after 2025. Though with Bichette struggling this year and now injured as well, the Jays may have concerns about selling low, compounded by the public relations hit of selling a player who has been such a key part of the franchise for years. That will make the coming weeks very interesting for the club and Bichette, with the trade deadline on July 30, six weeks from today.

White Sox Promote Drew Thorpe For MLB Debut

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June 11: The White Sox have officially announced Thorpe’s selection today. Left-hander Sammy Peralta was optioned to open a spot on the active roster. To open a spot on the 40-man, right-hander Dominic Leone was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Leone was put on the 15-day IL about three weeks ago due to inflammation in his throwing elbow and it now appears the Sox aren’t expecting him to return in the near future.

June 9: The White Sox are planning to promote top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe to the majors on Tuesday, manager Pedro Grifol told reporters (including James Fegan of SoxMachine). The right-hander will make his MLB debut against the Mariners in Seattle.

Thorpe, 23, was the headliner of a four player package the White Sox received from the Padres in the deal that sent ace righty Dylan Cease to San Diego back in March. It was the second time Thorpe had been traded that offseason, as the Padres acquired Thorpe from the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto package back in December. As one might expect from a prospect that was part of the return for two superstars in separate blockbusters during the same offseason, Thorpe is a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport. The righty currently ranks #41 at Baseball America and #54 at MLB Pipeline.

Prospect evaluation services universally praise Thorpe’s excellent command, ability to eat innings, and the devastating changeup that he complements with a 92-94 mph fastball that’s generally regarded as average and a average-or-better slider that sits in the mid-80s. Aside from his three main pitches, BA also notes that Thorpe mixes in a high-80s cutter and a low-80s curveball. That arsenal allowed the 2022 second-rounder to tear through the lower minors during his first taste of professional ball with the Yankees last year. Thorpe dominated to the tune of a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 18 starts at High-A last year before earning a late season promotion to Double-A.

Thorpe’s star really began to rise with that promotion. The then-22-year-old impressed with a sparkling 1.48 ERA across five starts. The righty racked up a whopping 44 strikeouts in just 30 1/3 innings of work while walking just five. Punching out 40% of batters faced while walking just 4.5% in your first taste of Double-A action is a surefire way to get plenty of attention, and so it’s hardly a surprise that both the Padres and White Sox front offices coveted Thorpe enough to make him a key piece of the trade returns for their star players.

Upon joining the White Sox organization, the right-hander returned to Double-A for the start of the 2024 campaign and has continued to dominate hitters at the level, with similar surface-level numbers in 11 starts this season to his five-start taste of Double-A last year. Thorpe has pitched to a 1.35 ERA in 60 innings of work this year, though his strikeout rate has dipped to a more pedestrian 25% this year while his walk rate has crept up to 7.6%. Even with those diminished peripherals, however, Thorpe has more than proved himself capable at the Double-A level and figured to be in line for a promotion in the near future.

What’s surprising, then, isn’t so much the promotion but that he will skip Triple-A entirely and jump directly into big league action. The White Sox optioned right-hander Nick Nastrini to the minors earlier today, leaving them with just a vacancy in a starting rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to the injured list and now features only Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, and Jonathan Cannon. Rather than call up a veteran at the Triple-A level such as Chad Kuhl or Touki Toussaint to fill out the rotation, the White Sox will instead turn to Thorpe in a bold move to get the righty a taste of big league action.

It’s a decision that could come with financial implications for Thorpe, as he’ll be in a good position to earn a fourth arbitration year as a Super Two player if he remains with the big league club going forward without returning to the minor leagues. Thorpe could theoretically earn himself a full season of service time by finishing in the top 2 in AL Rookie of the Year voting this season, although that would be quite the feat given the massive head starts afforded to players like Luis Gil of the Yankees and Mason Miller of the A’s who have been dominating in the majors all season.

Braves Select Hurston Waldrep

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TODAY: The Braves officially announced the selection of Waldrep’s contract this morning. Right-hander Daysbel Hernandez was optioned to the minors and Acuna was placed on the 60-day injured list in corresponding moves.

June 8: The Braves are calling up top pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep, according to multiple reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).  Waldrep will make his Major League debut on Sunday in a start against the Nationals, as Atlanta is giving Max Fried extra rest by pushing his next outing to Tuesday.  A 40-man roster space will have be opened to accommodate Waldrep, though that could be easily accomplished by moving Ronald Acuna Jr. or Spencer Strider to the 60-day IL.

The move represents another aggressive promotion from the Braves, as it was less than a year ago that Waldrep was selected with the 24th overall pick of the 2023 draft.  There was even some speculation that Waldrep was being considered for his MLB debut near the end of last season to give the Braves an extra high-powered bullpen arm for the playoffs, though the club opted against moving quite so quickly with the right-hander’s development.  Even still, Waldrep has only 84 2/3 pro innings under his belt, and just two starts at the Triple-A level.  Waldrep recorded 11 strikeouts over six innings with Triple-A Gwinnett last Sunday, allowing three earned runs on five hits and a walk in his first Triple-A outing of 2024.

This was enough to convince the Braves that Waldrep is ready for the Show, and the 22-year-old will now get an opportunity in what has become a revolving door of a fifth starter’s position.  Atlanta’s top four of Fried, Reynaldo Lopez, Charlie Morton, and Chris Sale has been very solid, but since Strider underwent season-ending elbow surgery, six other pitchers have gotten starts in Strider’s place.  None have achieved much success, so Waldrep might well get an extended look if he shows he can hang against big league hitters.

Waldrep was a consensus top-100 pick on preseason prospect rankings, with Baseball Prospectus (30th) and Baseball America (49th) the most bullish about his potential.  (He was ranked 77th by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, 80th by The Athletic’s Keith Law had him 80th, and 90th by MLB Pipeline, though Waldrep is now 72nd on Pipeline’s updated in-season list.)  There is universal acclaim for Waldrep’s splitter, which has upper-80s velocity and “completely falls off the table,” in the words of BA’s scouting report, leading to “ugly swings against hitters unable to hold back.”  Beyond this signature pitch is a fastball that regularly sits in the mid-90s and can hit as high as 99mph, and he also has a plus slider.

Controlling this arsenal has always been something of an adventure for Waldrep, so perhaps the most intriguing number on his 2024 stat line is his 7.56% walk rate over 55 1/3 total innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  That is already a big upgrade from the 13% walk rate he posted in his first 29 1/3 pro innings in 2023, and if this improved command can continue in the majors, Waldrep has front-of-the-rotation potential.  At the very least, Waldrep might profile as an elite closer down the road if he can’t stick as a starter, but naturally Atlanta will give him plenty of looks in the rotation before deciding on that step.

The obvious comparison here is with the hard-throwing Strider, and Strider might well have matched Waldrep’s first-round pedigree if he hadn’t undergone a Tommy John surgery in college.  Of course, it would be asking an awful lot of Waldrep to match Strider’s meteoric rise to big league stardom, and if Waldrep is “only” a decent rotation arm in his first taste of the majors, that is still a huge achievement for a pitcher just a year removed from the University of Florida.

If Waldrep can stay on the Major League roster for this season and beyond, he’ll be in good position to earn an extra year of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player.  As per the Prospect Promotion Incentive qualification system, Waldrep can earn a full year of MLB service time if he finishes first or second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, though Waldrep would have to be truly exceptional to overtake the likes of Shota Imanaga, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jared Jones, or others who have excelled in the majors for the entire 2024 campaign.

Mariners To Select Tyler Locklear

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The Mariners are set to select first baseman Tyler Locklear prior to tomorrow’s game against the Royals, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The club will have to make corresponding moves to accommodate Locklear’s addition to both the 40-man and active rosters prior to tomorrow’s game.

Locklear, 23, was Seattle’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The Virginia Commonwealth product has moved quickly through the minors, reaching the Double-A level in just his first full professional season before reaching Triple-A 41 games into his 2024 campaign. He’s now poised to reach the majors after just ten games at Triple-A and with only 753 minor league plate appearances under his belt. His offensive output during his limited time at the minor league level certainly appears to indicate that he may be in need of a greater challenge, as he sports a career .289/.398/.508 slash line across all levels of the minors, including above average production by measure of wRC+ at every level he’s appeared at since graduating from complex ball.

That fantastic offensive performance has led him to become one of the more well-regarded prospects in the Mariners system. Baseball America rates Locklear as Seattle’s fifth best prospect and as the #83 prospect in all of baseball. BA highlights his “borderline plus-plus” power potential and patience at the plate, both traits that were on display when Locklear hit a fantastic .291/.401/.532 (155 wRC+) in 41 games at the Double-A level this season. Locklear clubbed eight home runs in just 188 plate appearances while walking at a strong 12.2% clip. That performance was good for the fifth-best on-base percentage and third-best wRC+ among all qualified hitters 25 or younger in the Texas League this season.

Locklear’s promotion to the majors comes amid injury concerns regarding first baseman Ty France. The 29-year-old is (as relayed by Divish) expected to undergo imaging on his right heel due to lingering “tenderness” after he was hit by a pitch from Royals left-hander Daniel Lynch IV during yesterday’s game. France indicated that he was hopeful he would only miss a few days of action, so it’s possible that he isn’t headed for the injured list to make room for Locklear on the active roster. While both Locklear and France have experience elsewhere on the infield, each has moved to first base full time in recent seasons and appears unlikely to be a factor at the other infield spots.

Should the Mariners plan to accommodate both Locklear and France in the starting lineup on a regular basis going forward, that would likely indicate reduced playing time for Mitch Garver, who has served as both the club’s regular DH as well as a backup catcher to Cal Raleigh. The possibility of Garver seeing less playing time going forward is hardly a shocking one given his struggles at the dish this year. While he enjoyed a strong .249/.347/.479 slash line with a 128 wRC+ between the 2021 and 2023 seasons with the Mariners and Rangers, Garver’s first season in Seattle has been difficult as he’s posted a line of just .177/.288/.331 (86 wRC+) in 54 games with the club this year.

Pirates To Promote Paul Skenes

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The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft is on his way to the majors. Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes will make his highly anticipated MLB debut this Saturday in a home outing against the visiting Cubs, the the team announced.

The 6’6″, 235-pound Skenes is the embodiment of a prototypical, power-armed ace. He’s widely regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the sport — if not the top pitching prospect. Pittsburgh selected him with the top pick in last year’s draft after Skenes posted a 2.18 ERA and fanned more than 36% of his opponents in a three-year college career that included two seasons with the Air Force Academy and a third with the eventual national champion Louisiana State University Tigers. Skenes posted a comical 1.69 ERA over the course of 122 innings, striking out a hair over 45% of his opponents.

You won’t find a scouting report on Skenes that doesn’t laud him as a potential perennial All-Star and front-of-the-rotation pitcher with Cy Young upside. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and can reach 102 mph. Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs all give him credit for a plus-plus (70-grade) fastball on the 20-80 scale, with MLB.com even pegging as an 80-grade pitch. His slider draws similar praise.

The Athletic’s Keith Law notes that Skenes’ four-seam/slider combo was so dominant in college that he needed to work on his seldom-used changeup and a two-seamer in order to reach his ace-level ceiling. He’s worked to incorporate both into his repertoire more regularly in Triple-A this year. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel lists Skenes alongside David Price, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg as one of the four best pitching prospects in the past 20 years of the MLB draft.

To this point in his young career, Skenes has done nothing to suggest the hype is unwarranted. He’s made seven starts in Triple-A — the Pirates have limited his per-outing workload, leaving him at 27 1/3 innings on the season — and posted a 0.99 ERA with an over-the-moon 42.9% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. Skenes has kept the ball on the ground at a 51% clip and yielded just one homer all season. Though Pittsburgh has ramped him up in quite cautious fashion, he’s now been up to six innings in a start, so he should be able to work relatively deep into his debut effort if his performance dictates.

Skenes’ ascension to the Pirates’ rotation comes at a time when fellow rookie Jared Jones looks well on his way to becoming a high-end rotation arm himself. The 22-year-old Jones entered the season as a top-100 prospect himself and has raced out to a brilliant start: 2.63 ERA, 33.8% strikeout rate, 3.2% walk rate in 41 innings.

In an ideal setting, that electric young duo will join stalwart righty Mitch Keller, who signed a five-year extension during spring training, in forming the core of the Bucs’ rotation for years to come. Veteran Martin Perez is holding down one of the rotation spots behind that trio for now, but he’s only on a one-year contract. Fellow southpaw Marco Gonzales entered the season in the rotation as well, but he’s since gone down with a forearm strain. The Pirates are surely hopeful that some combination of Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler and Tom Harrington can break through in the majors and form a homegrown rotation that can thrust the team into perennial contention.

The timing of Skenes’ promotion comes at a point when enough time has elapsed that he can’t accrue a full year of big league service time — at least not by conventional means. There will only be 143 days remaining in the season by the time he debuts, leaving him well shy of the requisite 172 for a year of service. However, under the prospect promotion incentives in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, Skenes could still gain a full year of service if he finishes in the top two of National League Rookie of the Year voting.

In the event that Skenes achieves that feat, he’d have five additional years of club control, meaning he wouldn’t be eligible for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason and wouldn’t reach arbitration eligibility until the 2026-27 offseason. If Skenes sticks in the big leagues but does not gain a year of service based on Rookie of the Year voting, he’d be under club control through the 2030 season. However, the timing of his promotion also leaves him as a surefire Super Two player in that scenario, meaning he’d still be arb-eligible following the 2026 campaign and would go through the arbitration process four times rather than the standard three.

Guardians Promote Kyle Manzardo, Place Steven Kwan On 10-Day Injured List

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May 6: Cleveland has now announced the promotion of Manzardo and Kwan’s placement on the injured list. In a pair of corresponding moves, the Guards optioned righty Peter Strzelecki and reinstated lefty Sam Hentges from the injured list.

May 5: The Guardians will promote slugging prospect Kyle Manzardo prior to tomorrow’s game with the Tigers, according to The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (X link).  Cleveland has an open space on its 40-man roster to add Manzardo, and the 26-man space will be created when outfielder Steven Kwan is placed on the 10-day injured list.

Kwan left Saturday’s game due to hamstring tightness and was set to undergo an MRI today.  The results of the tests aren’t yet known, but even if the MRI is clean, the Guards might’ve felt it necessary to sideline Kwan anyway given his long history of hamstring problems.  As Kwan explained to reporters (including Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer) yesterday, he has battled hamstring issues both in the minors and during his college days.

Losing Kwan for any amount of time is a blow to the Guardians, as his huge early-season performance has fueled Cleveland’s rise to first place in the AL Central.  Kwan is hitting .353/.407/.496 over 145 plate appearances, leading the American League in both batting average and hits (47).  Some regression is inevitable since Kwan has a .370 BABIP and has continued to make some of the weakest contact of any hitter in baseball, but the Guards were happy to ride that offensive wave for as long as possible.  In addition to this surge at the plate, Kwan has also been delivering his customary superb left field defense, and looks like a favorite to win his third straight Gold Glove.

Will Brennan got the start in left field today, but the Guardians will probably keep the Brennan/Ramon Laureano platoon going in right field and address Kwan’s absence by using Estevan Florial a bit more regularly in left.  Florial has gotten the bulk of DH at-bats for Cleveland this season, yet the team will now need the designated hitter spot as a way to get Manzardo (who only plays first base) and Josh Naylor in the lineup at the same time.  Gabriel Arias and David Fry also figure to get some playing time in the corner outfield in certain situations.

A second-round pick for the Rays in the 2021 draft, Manzardo came to Cleveland at last year’s trade deadline in the one-for-one swap that sent Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay.  Manzardo’s minor league numbers had already drawn him top-100 prospect attention prior to the trade, and he has only gotten better since joining the Guardians organization.  Manzardo is hitting .303/.375/.642 with nine home runs over 128 PA with Triple-A Columbus this season, and while the Guards chose to start him at Triple-A rather than add him to their Opening Day roster, it only seemed like a matter of time before Manzardo made his MLB debut.

MLB Pipeline ranked Manzardo 52nd on its list of the sport’s top 100 prospects, and Baseball America has him 87th.  (For lists released prior to the season, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Manzardo 66th and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had him 83rd.)  The consensus is clear — Manzardo’s bat is definitely ready for the big leagues, though the 23-year-old might already be ticketed for a DH-only future even in a world where Cleveland didn’t have Naylor locking down first base.  Manzardo is viewed as a decent first baseman at best, and his lack of speed makes him an implausible choice to play outfield.

At the plate, however, Manzardo is a threat.  He both makes a lot of hard contact and a lot of contact in general, befitting the Guardians’ preference for hitters who rarely strike out.  Manzardo has 50 home runs over his 990 PA in the minors, and there is some sense that he might be able to unlock more power given how well-developed his approach is in the batter’s box.

This is music to the ears of a Guardians team that has long been lacking in power, though Cleveland’s offense has been greatly improved in the early going this season.  Naylor has been a big contributor to that more dangerous lineup, but since Naylor is a free agent after the 2025 season, there has been a sense that Manzardo might well be the heir apparent at first base.  Cleveland’s history of trading pricier players prior to free agency could make Naylor a big trade chip this coming offseason, so while a nice showing from Manzardo in his rookie season would certainly help the Guardians’ chances in 2024, it might have the Catch-22 of also hastening Naylor’s eventual departure.

Even if he stays on the Guards’ roster for the rest of the season, Manzardo won’t earn quite enough service time for a full season of MLB service.  As a result, he wouldn’t garner the Guardians an extra draft pick under the Prospect Promotion Incentive even if he had a top-two finish in Rookie Of The Year voting.  It is possible Manzardo might earn Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration eligibility if he garners enough service time over his first three seasons, though we won’t know that answer until the 2026 season is complete.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mets Promote Christian Scott

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TODAY: The Mets have officially selected Scott’s contract, and also called right-hander Cole Sulser up from Triple-A.  Right-hander Dedniel Nunez and left-hander Danny Young were optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding moves.

MAY 2: The Mets are planning to promote pitching prospect Christian Scott, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. McDaniel adds that Scott will likely make his debut on Saturday against the Rays. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will need a corresponding move to add him.

Scott, 25 in June, was a fifth-round selection of the Mets in 2021 but he has raised his stock dramatically since then. In 2022, he tossed 58 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A with a fairly pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but stronger underlying metrics. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking 8.4%. If not for a .381 batting average on balls in play and 68.1% strand rate, he would have fared much better, which is why his FIP was 2.77 that year.

Last year, he eventually rose as high as Double-A, throwing 87 2/3 frames for the year with a 2.57 ERA. He struck out 31.9% of batters while limiting his walks to a tiny 3.6% rate. He came into 2024 ranked as the #98 prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. At ESPN, McDaniel had Scott at #99. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs highlighted that he converted his changeup into a splitter, adding a strong third option to what had previously been mostly a sinker/slider combo.

He didn’t crack the season-opening lists at either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but has vaulted himself up to #62 on BA’s most recent update. That huge jump is a reflection of the fact that Scott has been dominating this year, apart from some homer troubles. Through five Triple-A starts here in 2024, he has fanned 38.3% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 6.4% rate. But thanks to seven fly balls clearing the fences, he has a 3.20 ERA.

In addition to pushing him up prospect lists, that strong performance will get him to the majors. The Mets currently have a rotation of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser and José Buttó. The only optionable guy in that group is Buttó, but he has been pitching well, with a 2.57 ERA on the year. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com speculates that Scott’s promotion might be related to the Mets playing 26 games in 27 days, so perhaps Scott’s promotion will just be a spot start to give the others a breather.

The length of Scott’s stay might also depend on other factors. Each of Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and David Peterson are on the injured list and their respective returns will impact how the rotation is configured as they season rolls along. Senga and Peterson on on the 60-day IL and can’t return until late May but Megill recently began a rehab assignment and could therefore be an option in a few weeks. Scott’s performance in his big league debut will naturally impact the decisions as well.

Regardless of how long Scott spends in the bigs for the rest of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time since the campaign is already more than a month old. The new CBA allows top prospects to earn a full year even if called up late if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that won’t apply to Scott. To be eligible for that benefit, a player has to start the year on two of three top 100 lists at ESPN, BA and MLB Pipeline, but Scott was only on one. That means the Mets can control him through the 2023 season, even if he sticks in the big leagues from here on out.

Brewers Promote Tyler Black

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4:05pm: The Brewers have made it official, announcing they have selected Black’s contract. Miley was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open up a 40-man spot while Miller was optioned to make room on the active roster.

1:35pm: The Brewers are expected to call up infield prospect Tyler Black today, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Black is not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will be necessary, though Wade Miley could easily be transferred to the 60-day injured list since he is going to miss the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery. Another move would still be necessary to get Black onto the active roster.

Black, 23, was selected by the Brewers with the 33rd overall pick in the 2021 draft. Since then, he has climbed the minor league ladder, earning huge amounts of praise for his plate discipline. He spent 2022 in High-A, walking more often than he struck out. He was limited to 283 plate appearances in 64 games due to a fractured scapula but drew 45 walks while getting punched out 44 times, leading to respective rates of 15.9% and 15.5%. He only hit four home runs but his .281/.406/.424 batting line translated to a 137 wRC+.

He got over his injury and returned to the field last year, playing 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He walked in 15.8% of his trips to the plate on the year while striking out at a 17.9% rate, hitting 18 home runs in the process. He hit a combined .284/.417/.513 between the two levels for a 145 wRC+. He returned to Triple-A this year and has produced a batting line of .303/.393/.525 so far.

Though the plate discipline is his most standout tool, he also has some speed to offer. He stole 13 bases in his injury-shortened 2022 campaign before swiping 55 bags on 67 tries last year. He’s tallied another three in the early going here in 2024.

Defensively, he’s more of a question mark. He was a second baseman in college and the early parts of his minor league career, spending some time in center field in 2022 as well. But since the start of last year, he’s been exclusively on the infield corners, primarily at third.

Regardless of the defensive question marks, the strong offense and the speed are enough for him to be considered one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him as their #73 prospect. MLB Pipeline has him at #42, ESPN at #51 while Keith Law of The Athletic put him in the #44 spot. Though for a dissenting opinion, Black doesn’t crack the top 100 at FanGraphs and Eric Longenhagen put him at just #10 in the Brewers’ system last month. Longenhagen expresses concern that Black won’t stick at third base and will eventually end up at first, where his contact-over-power approach will be insufficient.

Given the current Milwaukee infield alignment, it would seem that Black probably has a better path to playing time at first base for now. Joey Ortiz has been the regular at third and is hitting a strong .279/.392/.426 so far this year, 134 wRC+. First base has been split between Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers, though the latter hasn’t been performing especially well. Bauers is hitting .200/.250/.383 while striking out in 37.5% of his trips to the plate this year.

Both Bauers and Black are left-handed hitters, so it seems Bauers is the player most likely to lose playing time with Black promotion. Bauers is out of options and would have to be designated for assignment if he is to be squeezed off the roster. Though if the Brewers want to keep him around as a bench bat, they could option someone like Joey Wiemer, Oliver Dunn or Owen Miller.

It’s late enough in the season that Black can’t earn a full year of service time, at least not the traditional way. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days in the big leagues, or on the major league injured list, to get to the one-year mark. Since we’re over a month into the 2024 campaign already, Black can’t quite make it to that line.

The current collective bargaining agreement contains measures to disincentive service time manipulation, by rewarding clubs for promotion top prospects while also allowing such players a path to getting one year of service even if held down. If a player is on two of the three top 100 lists at BA, MLB Pipeline or ESPN, they are considered eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, which applies to Black since he’s on all three.

Had the Brewers promoted Black earlier in the year, they could have earned themselves an extra draft pick depending on how he performed in awards voting, but that won’t be in play now. Black will be able to earn a full service year if he can finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting, the other new measure in the CBA, though he will have an uphill battle in achieving that. Players like Shota Imanaga Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jared Jones, Jackson Merrill, Masyn Winn and others have already had a head start of over a month to rack up stats while Black is just getting started.

Even if he comes up short of the one-year mark here in 2024, he would be in line for Super Two status after the 2026 campaign if he can stay up in the big leagues from this point forward. He would be able to go through arbitration four times instead of three before being slated for free agency after 2030, though future optional assignments could delay either of those trajectories.

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