The Opener

With the Winter Meetings fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Will the logjam at the top of the market loosen?

Even after Trea Turner and Justin Verlander came off the board, much of the top of the free-agent market could hinge on Aaron Judge. With the full attention of two major-market teams on Judge — the Yankees and Giants — some players at the top of the market may not sign until the reigning AL MVP has made a decision. Carlos Rodon, for example, has received interest from both the Yankees and Giants. It would be reasonable for him to want to wait until Judge makes a decision, in case missing out on Judge puts additional pressure on the losing bidder to get a deal done with him. Brandon Nimmo, the second-best outfielder on the market, is in a similar position. While Turner signed ahead of Judge, it’s certainly possible that the rest of the shortstop market could be held up by Judge, too. The Giants are known to have interest in Carlos Correa, and the Yankees could conceivably pivot to the shortstop market should Judge depart. That could also gum things up for the Twins, who are aggressive in their attempts to retain Correa but could pivot to Xander Bogaerts if Correa leaves. The Cubs, meanwhile, have been connected to each of Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, with rumors yesterday even suggesting they could try and lure two of the three remaining shortstops to Wrigley. Though not as frequently connected to the shortstops as Chicago, the Cardinals have been mentioned as a potential suitor (for Swanson in particular), and the Dodgers could potentially look to replace Turner now that he’s agreed to join the Phillies.

2. Will the Cardinals find their catcher?

Yesterday, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the team hopes to have a new starting catcher by the end of the Winter Meetings tomorrow. The Cardinals have been connected to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as well as free agents such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez. The Cards are sure to have competition on all of these fronts, however. Murphy is being pursued by the Rays and Guardians, among other teams, while Contreras has been linked to the Astros repeatedly, with manager Dusty Baker noting the team’s interest. Vazquez, meanwhile, is known to have more than half a dozen suitors and may pursue a pact for as many as four years this offseason. Should St. Louis miss on these options, they could pivot to free-agent catchers in the next tier, such as Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez, or they could swing a trade with the Blue Jays, who are open to dealing a catcher with three on their roster: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno (with Jansen the most oft-rumored name to be available).

3. The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight.

In addition to the usual hot stove rumblings that accompany the Winter Meetings, at 7:30pm CT this evening, the inaugural MLB draft lottery will be held, where the top six spots in the 2023 MLB draft will be decided. The Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Royals each have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, but every team that missed the postseason in 2022 has a chance, however small, to pick first in next year’s draft. Looking at the larger lottery as a whole shows that Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh have an 81% chance to pick somewhere in the top six, while the Brewers, the team with the best record to miss the postseason, have just a 2.1% chance to pick in the top six. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

With the biggest event of the baseball offseason underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. The Winter Meetings are underway

Today marks the first full day of the Winter Meetings, with executives, agents, and players around baseball having convened in San Diego to do business. The day is sure to be rife with rumors fresh from the hot stove, with the potential for a new deal to break at any minute. Much of the focus is on Aaron Judge, particularly in the wake of multiple reports that he could have a deal in hand some point before the Winter Meetings end. The free-agent shortstop quartet of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will also dominate headlines this week, and Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that center fielder Brandon Nimmo is in San Diego for face-to-face meetings with interested teams. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

2. Could the top of the pitching market keep moving forward?

Jacob deGrom’s five-year deal with the Rangers takes one of the most talented pitchers on the planet off the free agent market, but two aces are still available to be signed: reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, and lefty ace Carlos Rodon. Both hurlers had phenomenal years in 2022, with Verlander’s 1.75 ERA in 2022 leading all of baseball and Rodon’s 2.25 FIP doing the same. The Mets appear to be among the most heavily involved on both players after losing deGrom to Texas, but they’re hardly lacking in competition. Verlander has been repeatedly connected to the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays been mentioned as another possible suitor for a second straight offseason. Rodon, on the other hand, reportedly has as many as nine teams interested, with the Orioles among those most recently connected to him. What’s more, the Rangers may still be interested in signing the lefty even after acquiring deGrom. While a team signing two players at the same position at the top of the market is typically rare, the Rangers should not be counted out, having done so as recently as last offseason when they inked both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to massive deals.

3. Will the A’s deal Murphy soon?

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos quashed rumors that his club could be on the verge of landing catcher Sean Murphy in a deal with the A’s last night, but Oakland is still actively discussing trades with several interested suitors. It’s been widely expected that the A’s will trade Murphy this offseason, with the team in the midst of a rebuild and flush with options behind the plate. Top prospect Shea Langeliers already reached the big league level in 2022, while fellow top prospect Tyler Soderstrom climbed from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A in 2022. The Guardians, Rays, Red Sox and Cardinals are among the teams known to have interest in Murphy, all of whom have the stockpile of prospects and young talent necessary to swing such a deal.

As the calendar flips to December, here’s three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

 1. Catcher market heating up?

It’s not a particularly deep catching market in free agency this year, with Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez headlining, but the trade market offers some strong options for catcher-hungry teams. Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros are planning to meet with Contreras at the Winter Meetings, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Guardians are showing continued interest in Oakland catcher Sean Murphy, who appears highly likely to be dealt. His three years of remaining club control and strong offensive and defensive prowess makes him a sought-after target, and a robust market has developed. Morosi suggested a deal could be done during the Winter Meetings, and teams that miss out on Murphy could quickly pivot to one of the top free agents, while the Blue Jays are expected to deal one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno this winter.

2. Will Aaron Judge’s free agency come to an end at the Winter Meetings?

It’s beginning to look like it might. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Yankees have tabled an offer to Judge worth around $300MM over eight years. It’s not known how Judge’s camp has reacted to that, or what any other offers look like, but the report was notable for one other thing. Passan suggested that Judge’s free agency is primed to wrap up within the Winter Meetings, so in a week’s time we could know if Judge will be in pinstripes in 2023, heading to the Bay Area, or to some other team. In many ways, it makes sense that Judge would be the first major free agent to sign. Both the Yankees and Giants will likely be aggressive in other areas if they miss out on Judge. Agents for other top free agents are certainly aware of this and so it makes sense that Judge is holding up the top end of the market.

3. When will the first shortstop come off the board?

It almost certainly depends on what happens with Judge. If, say, the Yankees watch Judge sign in San Francisco, they could quickly pivot and jump into the market for Trea Turner or Carlos Correa. So if you’re Turner’s agent, it makes sense to wait until Judge is gone and see if the deep-pocketed Yankees or Giants are willing to jump in and drive your client’s price up further. Passan reports that the market for the shortstops is already heating up. The Twins are making a strong push to re-sign Correa, Turner has a wide range of suitors, so too are Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The offseason has been slow to this point as teams have spent the past month laying groundwork, but it certainly seems like the next week could be busy and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of the four big name shortstops settle on a home for 2023 and beyond.

As the Winter Meetings approach, here’s what we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:

1. The top of the starting pitching market

Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon sit atop the free agent list for starting pitching this winter. A combination of injury history and age makes the contract for each tricky to predict, but we are seeing markets emerge for each. It was revealed yesterday that the Rays had been in touch with deGrom, joining the Yankees, Mets and Rangers as teams with confirmed interest. Rodon had a Zoom meeting with the Mets yesterday, and the Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Rangers and Giants have all shown interest in the lefty this winter. Verlander is coming off a Cy Young-winning season and has been linked to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, as well as a return to Houston. As teams meet with these players, it might not be long before things ramp up and given the similar teams being linked to each option, once one name comes off the board the others might follow quickly.

2. Which players might come off the board before the Winter Meetings begin?

The Winter Meetings will kick off Sunday in San Diego  for the first time since 2019, and the widespread expectation is that they’ll spur some action both on the free agent and trade markets (as is commonplace). That said, a handful of recognizable names could come off the board even before Sunday evening. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported this week that former Red Sox hurlers Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Strahm have strong enough markets that a deal could materialize this week. Meanwhile, the Pirates have had talks with Kyle Gibson, The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel reported, and his market has been “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Gibson’s free agency wrapped up quickly last time he was on the market, when he signed just before Thanksgiving, so it stands to reason that he could be keen on another short stay on the market rather than a drawn-out process. Meanwhile, the Pirates have already signed Carlos Santana, acquired Ji-Man Choi and traded Kevin Newman, so they’ve shown a willingness to make some early deals themselves.

3. Chat with Anthony Franco today at 5pm CT

With the Winter Meetings just around the corner and the bulk of the market’s most notable free agents and trade targets yet to find new homes, many of the biggest storylines of the offseason have yet to truly unfold. There’s plenty to talk about, and MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will host a live chat taking your questions at 5pm CT. You can leave a question here in advance, and be sure to use this link to join and participate live if you’re able!

As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:

1. Will Any Deals Get Closed Before The Holiday?

The days leading up to Thanksgiving have, in previous offseasons, seen a small spike in activity, as free agents who are looking to have their new team settled ahead of the holidays try to push deals across the finish line. In the past few offseasons, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Loup, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, Yan Gomes and Charlie Morton have all agreed to terms within 48 hours of Thanksgiving. This can apply to the trade market as well, as the Angels’ acquisition of Hunter Renfroe just last night shows. In addition to last night’s deal, recent offseasons have seen the Rockies and Reds connect on a swap of relievers and the Padres and Brewers complete a four-player trade involving all big leaguers, among other smaller trade agreements.

2. Bryce Harper’s Surgery Is Today

Recently extended Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced last week that star outfielder Bryce Harper will undergo surgery on his elbow today to repair a damaged ulnar collateral ligament. This is of particular note because the team and doctors alike won’t be certain whether Harper requires a full ligament replacement (Tommy John surgery) or an internal brace procedure until he actually goes under the knife, leaving his timetable for return uncertain to this point. Once today’s procedure is complete, there will be far more clarity on how much time Harper can be expected to miss in 2023.

3. A Few MLBTR Features

The final two Offseason Chats will be held today, putting the finishing touches on MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a team-specific chat for the reigning World Series champion Astros at 11am CT today, while Steve Adams will hosting an A’s-specific chat later in the day at 2pm CT. Astros fans can click here to leave a question for Anthony in advance and, in the meantime, check out the Astros’ Offseason Outlook. A’s fans can leave a question in advance here and go back through Oakland’s Offseason Outlook for a refresher, if you like. Regardless of which club you follow, if you’re looking ahead to the meat of your team’s offseason, it’s also worth noting that our 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List has been updated to include last week’s wave of non-tendered players. You can check that out for a comprehensive look at who’s available on a position-by-position basis. (Note: the incorrect link to the free agent list has been updated; apologies on the error)