The Opener

Here are three things we’re watching around baseball as 2024 kicks into gear…

1. Offseason set to ramp up?

There have been some massive news stories this offseason, such as the record-setting deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as the Juan Soto trade, but it has undoubtedly been slow on the whole. 28 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unattached, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader. There’s also plenty of notable guys in the lower tiers still out there, a handful of expected trades that have to be finished and a batch of arbitration salaries that need to be sorted out. Many of the top spenders were focused on Ohtani for a long time and then pivoted to Yamamoto, but by the time both agreed to terms with the Dodgers, it was almost time for the holiday break. With those holidays now over, there’s just six weeks until players start reporting for Spring Training and a lot of work to do, meaning the ice has to crack soon.

2. What’s next for the Boston rotation?

The Red Sox have had upgrading their rotation as a priority all winter. They finally made a move by signing Lucas Giolito last week, but then traded Chris Sale to Atlanta the very next day. That leaves them with Giolito, followed by options like Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Is there another move coming in the next few weeks?

3. Will the Cubs finally leap into action?

The Cubs have arguably been the least active club this winter, at least in terms of results. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each club’s free agent spending thus far this offseason and the Cubs were one of four yet to spend any money at all. The other three have been active in different ways, with the Yankees trading for Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, the Marlins acquiring Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Bruján, and the Rockies having traded for Cal Quantrill. The Cubs have been connected to many big names, both in free agency and the trade market, but haven’t been able to land anything yet.

Activity in the baseball world could pick up this week as the holiday season nears its end. A few things to keep an eye on with the beginning of 2024:

1. Unofficial contracts

A few free agent signings have yet to be made official. That’s not uncommon for late-December agreements, as holiday plans can lead some players or teams to hold off on physicals that will put the finishing touch on a contract. The Pirates have yet to announce their $8MM deal with left-hander Martín Pérez from two weeks back, while the White Sox haven’t finalized their $4MM signing of catcher Martín Maldonado. Starters Lucas Giolito (Red Sox), Frankie Montas (Reds) and Zach Plesac (Angels) agreed to deals in the last few days that haven’t been made official. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cincinnati and Los Angeles all have 40-man rosters that are at capacity, so they’ll need to make corresponding trades or DFA once those acquisitions are announced.

2. DFA resolutions

On the other side of the equation, a handful of players have awaited resolution on their status. Teams typically have a week to trade or waive someone they had designated for assignment. That clock is paused between Christmas and New Year’s, leaving a few players with an unusually long stay in DFA limbo. Max Castillo, who was DFA by the Royals on December 19, has spent the past two weeks with that uncertainty. Ryan Jensen (Marlins), Donny Sands (Tigers) and Diego Castillo (Diamondbacks) should all receive clarity on their status by the end of this week. More recent DFAs like Bryan Hudson (Dodgers), Bubba Thompson (Reds) and Declan Cronin and Carlos Pérez (both White Sox) may also be traded or placed on waivers in the next couple days.

3. Rodríguez Nearing Decision?

Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodríguez is one of the more intriguing entrants on this year’s pitching market. The 26-year-old dominated while working out of the bullpen for NPB’s Chunichi Dragons in 2022. He didn’t pitch after last year’s World Baseball Classic while awaiting an MLB opportunity, which will come this winter. Teams are divided on Rodríguez’s future as a starting pitcher, but he has a high-octane arsenal that should land him a notable multi-year pact as an upside play. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reported on Friday that Rodríguez was close to making a decision, suggesting the Blue Jays had emerged as his top suitor. Will there be an agreement by the end of the week?

Here are three things we’re watching in the baseball world today…

1. End of 2023:

2023 is winding down, with today being the last weekday of the year. The past 12 months saw Japan win the World Baseball Classic and the Rangers win the World Series. Various rule changes were introduced, with a pitch clock, larger bases and limitations on defensive shifts. Along the way, Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first 40/70 player, Adam Wainwright got his 200th win and each of Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel notched their 400th save. The offseason has seen the Dodgers give record-setting deals to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. What surprising and amazing feats does 2024 have in store?

2. Pirates need a roster spot:

The Pirates have a full 40-man roster and have yet to make their agreement with lefty Martín Pérez official. That means they will need to open a spot for him somehow, which could lead to a trade or perhaps someone simply being designated for assignment.

3. What will the Red Sox do?

The Red Sox have mostly made modest moves so far this offseason, such as flipping out Alex Verdugo and bringing in Tyler O’Neill. But they’ve also been connected to notable free agents like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell and many more. Will any of this interest come to fruition in the coming months?

Here are three things we’re keeping an eye on throughout baseball today…

1. Two weeks left for Imanaga:

Left-hander Shota Imanaga’s posting window is open until January 11, meaning there’s now just two weeks left for him to arrange a deal with an MLB club. If no deal is reached by then, he will return to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball, but all indications point to his market being robust. He has a 3.18 earned run average in his eight NPB seasons and is coming off a 2023 season that saw him finish with a 2.80 ERA and 29.2% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted he could secure a five-year, $85MM deal but there have been reports of his market pushing to the $100MM range. The signing team would owe the BayStars a posting fee on top of the money they guarantee to Imanaga.

2. White Sox need roster spot for Maldy:

The White Sox agreed to a deal with catcher Martín Maldonado earlier this week. They currently have a full 40-man roster and will need to make some kind of move in order to open a spot before making the Maldy signing official. Perhaps the club will look to make some kind of trade in the coming days or simply designate someone for assignment.

3. What’s next for the Jays?

The Blue Jays have been connected to a lot of big names this winter, including Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Once those players landed elsewhere, the Jays pivoted to smaller moves, recently agreeing to terms with Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. There’s still time for a bigger splash, with players like Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman available in free agency. The Kiner-Falefa deal could also be a precursor to a trade, as he now joins a crowded group of depth or part-time players on the roster. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lined up at shortstop and first base respectively, candidates for the third base and second base positions include Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Otto López, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.

Though many of us are still full of cookies and eggnog, here are three things to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Mariners after signing Garver?

The Mariners made their first buy-side splash of the offseason on Christmas Eve, inking catcher Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. While he’s unlikely to do too much catching given the presence of Cal Raleigh, Garver’s bat has proven to be more than capable of handling work as a regular DH. In 87 games with the Rangers last year, Garver slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 with 19 home runs in just 344 plate appearances and a wRC+ of 138, the 15th best figure among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.

With Garver likely to take over regular DH duties in Seattle, it’s fair to wonder what the Mariners will do next. While Garver looks to be a strong addition to the club’s lineup, GM Jerry Dipoto and his front office have plenty of work to do in renovating a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez this offseason. An infielder to pair with Luis Urias and Josh Rojas alongside JP Crawford could make some sense, and the club would surely benefit from adding a corner outfielder or two to a mix that currently features the likes of Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty.

2. Can the Padres address all their needs on a budget?

The Padres’ financial woes are well-documented at this point, having spurred the club to flip superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees alongside center fielder Trent Grisham. As things currently stand, the club is reportedly hoping to stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2024, leaving San Diego without much room to address needs all across the roster. The club’s deal with left-hander Yuki Matsui, which became official over the weekend, comes with a $5.7MM AAV for luxury tax purposes, giving the club (according to RosterResource) around $27MM to work with below the first threshold of the luxury tax. While that offers some flexibility to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office, the club likely needs at least one more reliever, at least one more starting pitcher, and at least two more everyday players in outfield/DH mix.

3. Will Matsui’s signing cause the relief market to pick up?

San Diego’s deal with Matsui land the second multi-year deal for a reliever headed to a new team this offseason after Emilio Pagan’s deal with the Reds late last month. The slow relief market this offseason stands in sharp contrast to last year’s which saw the likes of Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Rafael Montero sign multi-year pacts in early November. This year, relief ace Josh Hader headlines a class of relievers that also includes the likes of Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, and Aroldis Chapman. While virtually every contender could benefit from bullpen upgrades, the Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, and Astros all have specific interest in retooling their relief corps this winter.

With Christmas just around the corner, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. What’s next for the teams that missed out on Yamamoto?

Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto exceeded all expectations by signing a whopping 12-year, $325MM deal with the Dodgers last night that includes two opt-out clauses. Including the posting fee L.A. owes to the Orix Buffaloes as compensation for Yamamoto’s services brings the total financial outlay to more than $375MM. While the megadeal likely takes the likes of the Mets, Blue Jays, and Phillies out of the running at the top of the pitching market, plenty of other suitors for Yamamoto figure to attempt to pivot elsewhere as they attempt to find front-end starting pitching. The Yankees, Giants, and Red Sox all appear likely to continue exploring the top of the pitching market as the offseason continues, with lefties Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga among the best remaining arms available in free agency. Meanwhile, the trade market offers righties Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and potentially Corbin Burnes as front-of-the-rotation options.

2. Will the Dodgers keep going?

Between the additions of Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Tyler Glasnow the Dodgers have now spent over $1 billion this winter, at least before accounting for the deferrals in Ohtani’s contract. That massive outlay leaves the club with a projected payroll of just over $282MM in 2024 for luxury tax purposes according to RosterResource, which puts the club around $15MM under the highest threshold of luxury penalization. What’s next as they look to improve their roster this offseason? Rumors have indicated that the club could look to upgrade at shortstop, where Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas currently figure to split time. Beyond that, an outfield bat who can push Chris Taylor into a utility role or an additional starting pitcher to round out the club’s rotation alongside Yamamoto, Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller could make some sense for the club.

3. Will any last-minute deals come together before Christmas?

During the offseason, major holidays are occasionally used by teams and players as soft deadlines for deals to get done. Some free agents like to know where they’re going to live next year before a holiday, and GMs at the one-yard line on a trade may have a little extra incentive to get it over the line before they go home to celebrate. For example, Yamamoto’s market was discussed throughout much of the offseason as regarding Christmas as something of a soft deadline; considering his posting window was set to close on January 4, little time would have been left after the new year for the righty to land a contract.  Although the day before Thanksgiving was rather quiet this year, could things be different on the Friday before Christmas weekend?

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things worth keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Brewers?

Yesterday saw the Brewers and Mets get together on a trade that sent right-hander Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor to Queens in exchange for pitching prospect Coleman Crow. The sell-side move from Milwaukee subtracts from a rotation the club had deepened earlier in the offseason by signing right-hander Joe Ross and reuniting with veteran southpaw Wade Miley. Taylor’s departure clears one piece from what had become a crowded outfield mix following the club’s decision to sign top prospect Jackson Chourio to a pre-debut extension earlier this month.

The departure of Houser makes any deal involving right-hander Corbin Burnes more complicated. With likely sixth starter Aaron Ashby’s timeline uncertain as he looks to work his way back from shoulder surgery, trading Burnes could leave Milwaukee short on viable starting options headed into 2024. Of course, it’s worth noting that the club may be more hesitant to deal Burnes to begin with than once believed. The outfield, by contrast, is an area from which the Brewers should have little issue sacrificing some depth. Aside from Chourio and Christian Yelich, Milwaukee’s outfield mix also features Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Blake Perkins. That’s plenty of talent the club could trade use to improve their infield situation, which offers little certainty outside of shortstop Willy Adames.

2. D-backs, Gurriel deal not yet official:

Over the weekend, the Diamondbacks reportedly brought back left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a deal worth $43MM guaranteed over three years that features both an opt-out after 2025 and a club option for 2027. That deal has yet to be made official, meaning Gurriel does not yet count against the club’s 40-man roster. At the time of the signing, that wasn’t particularly meaningful as Arizona had an open spot on its 40-man. That changed earlier this week, however, when the club claimed right-hander Collin Snider off waivers from the Royals. With the addition of Snider filling the club’s roster, Arizona will now have to clear a spot for Gurriel when his deal eventually becomes official, something they could accomplish by working out a minor trade involving one of the players towards the back of their roster or by simply designating a player for assignment.

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will Yamamoto get $300MM?

The top free agent remaining at this point in the offseason is right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old NPB ace has previously been reported as having seven “finalists” for his services: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies, and Blue Jays. Reporting has since indicated that Philadelphia and Toronto are likely on the periphery of the sweepstakes, while last night rumors surfaced that the Dodgers were considering making an offer to Yamamoto in the $250-300MM range.

An offer even on the smaller end of that range would make Yamamoto’s contract the second-largest in MLB history for a starting pitcher (ignoring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) behind only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, edging out Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM guarantee from the 2019-20 offseason. The bidding process for Yamamoto’s services is expected to continue throughout the week, leaving the door open for other finalists’ offers to reach or even surpass the reported range L.A. is considering.

2. Is a Matsui deal on the horizon?

Yamamoto isn’t the only NPB pitcher getting buzz of late. As of yesterday, the Padres and left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui were reportedly close on a multi-year deal. Matsui, 28, has posted sub-2.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in Japan in each of the past three seasons, with a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time. That show of dominance overseas earned Matsui the No. 43 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. The Cardinals, Red Sox and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Matsui this offseason outside of San Diego, though with a deal seemingly on the verge of coming together, those teams may be forced to look elsewhere for bullpen help going forward.

3. Pirates facing roster crunch:

The Pirates have begun making moves to add to the club in recent days as they look to improve upon a 76-86 season during which the club showed flashes of success but ultimately finished fourth in the NL Central. Two recent moves made to improve the club’s standing were the addition of left-hander Martin Perez to the rotation and the club’s reported reunion with veteran DH Andrew McCutchen, who will don on a Pirates uniform for an 11th season in his 16-year MLB career. Before either deal can become official, however, the Pirates must clear space on their 40-man roster, which is currently full even without Perez and McCutchen having officially signed. Pittsburgh could look to make a minor trade or two in the coming days to clear space on the roster for their recent signings, or simply designate two players on the 40-man roster for assignment to make room.

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will Carpenter find a new team?

The Braves released veteran slugger Matt Carpenter yesterday, sending the 38-year-old to the open market. Carpenter posted an otherworldly performance as a member of the Yankees in 2022 when he slashed a whopping .305/.412/.727 across just 47 games. Outside of that brief stint in the Bronx, however, Carpenter has posted below average offensive numbers every year following the 2018 campaign, when he finished in the top-10 of NL MVP voting with the Cardinals.

While Carpenter’s age and mostly meager production in recent years make it reasonable to wonder if he’ll be able to land a job with a big league club, it’s worth noting that any interested club would only have to pay a pro-rated portion of the big league minimum for the time Carpenter spends on the roster given the Padres and Braves are still on the hook for his 2024 salary. That could make him an affordable option for teams in need of a lefty bat on a tight budget.

2. Royals working through roster crunch:

The Royals have spent more than $100MM on free agents this offseason, and the influx of additions has led to something of a logjam on the 40-man roster in recent weeks. To accommodate their new signings, Kansas City has shipped right-hander Taylor Clarke to Milwaukee, outfielder Edward Olivares to Pittsburgh, and most recently right-hander Jonathan Heasley to Baltimore in minor trades while also surrendering right-hander Collin Snider to the Diamondbacks on waivers. That flurry of activity has allowed them to make official the signings of right-handers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Chris Stratton as well as left-hander Will Smith.

Even after all of that, the club still has one more player for whom they’ll need to open a 40-man roster spot: outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who the club reportedly agreed to a two-year deal with last week. The Royals have largely been successful in working out small trades for marginal players on their 40-man roster while navigating through this roster crunch, though it remains to be seen if they’ll pull off a fourth swap in that vein or have to settle for designating a player for assignment to accommodate Renfroe as they did with Snider to make room for Smith.

3. MLBTR chat today:

With the new year swiftly approaching, are there any questions burning in your mind about the offseason as 2023 comes to a close? Are you wondering what’s next for your favorite team, or perhaps curious about what the market for a particular free agent looks like? If so, tune in this afternoon when MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosts a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after its completed.

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Could the Orioles reach a lease agreement today?

Earlier this year, the Orioles and Maryland governor Wes Moore initially reported that they had reached an agreement that would keep the Orioles in Baltimore for at least 30 years. That deal was later revealed to be a non-binding “memorandum of understanding,” and no deal has come together in the months since. That could change today according to an announcement late last week from Moore’s office that a long-term lease agreement between the Orioles and the Maryland Stadium Authority will be voted on by Maryland state officials today. The agreement is expected to go before both the stadium authority and the state’s Board of Public Works this afternoon. Time is running out on an agreement, as the club’s lease at Camden Yards expires at the end of the calendar year.

2. Is the outfield market heating up?

The positional market has lagged behind the pitching market for the most part this offseason, and while infielder Jeimer Candelario and DH Shohei Ohtani have both signed in recent weeks, the outfield market was falling even further behind in free agency with a focus on trades of players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Tyler O’Neill, and Jarred Kelenic. Fortunately, the outfield market has begun to heat up over the past week as KBO star Jung Hoo Lee landed in San Francisco on a six-year deal.

Since then, the rest of the outfield market has begun to catch up as Hunter Renfroe reached an agreement on a two-year pact with the Royals. Just yesterday, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and the Diamondbacks came together on a multi-year contract that will keep the reigning NL championship club’s left fielder in town for the next two to four seasons. It’s possible that the recent movement on the outfield market could spur movement involving a corner outfield class led by Teoscar Hernandez that also features noteworthy names such as Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler.

3. What’s next for the Padres?

The Padres kicked off their offseason earlier this month by trading away Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for a package of five players headlined by right-hander Michael King and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe. While the club was initially believed to be motivated to move Soto by a desire to open up budget space to repair a pitching staff that had lost four starting pitchers (including reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell) and star closer Josh Hader to free agency, reporting from this past weekend indicates that San Diego may have less room in the budget to work with than initially believed even after dealing away Soto.

The Padres are reportedly considering attempting to duck under the luxury tax threshold this offseason, a strategy that could leave them with just $30MM to spend as they look to add multiple arms to both the rotation and bullpen while also filling out their recently-vacated outfield alongside franchise cornerstone Fernando Tatis Jr. Given the club’s complicated financial situation and the number of holes left on the roster, the club’s path back into contention seems likely to remain unclear until president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office make their next move.