The Opener

After a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Gray, Maeda finalizing deals:

It was reported earlier this morning that the Cardinals are finalizing a deal with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray worth a reported $75MM over three years. That leaves Gray poised to become the second free agent who placed in the top 10 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list to sign this offseason following righty Aaron Nola, who re-upped with the Phillies earlier in the month. Gray isn’t the only free agent starter in the process of finalizing a deal, however. Per reports last night, the Tigers inking veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda to a two-year deal worth $24MM. That contract is pending a physical, which is expected to happen later today. Both Gray and Maeda will require 40-man roster spots upon their deals with St. Louis and Detroit becoming official, though both clubs have spots available meaning no corresponding transaction will be necessary to finalize either pact.

2. How will the Twins address their rotation?

Both Gray and Maeda pitched for the Twins in 2023. Maeda provided the club with 104 1/3 innings of back-of-the-rotation production following his return from Tommy John surgery this year, posting a 4.23 ERA and 4.02 FIP over 21 appearances (20 starts). Gray, meanwhile, had a career year with Minnesota and posted a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. The return of right-hander Chris Paddack to the rotation in 2024 should help alleviate the losses, though 25-year-old youngster Louie Varland, who posted a 4.63 ERA and 5.02 FIP in 68 major league innings this year, likely represents the club’s internal fifth starter.

Given that, an external addition who can join Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Paddack in the rotation could make plenty of sense. While the club is expected to reduce payroll this offseason, the club’s interest in a reunion with Maeda prior to the righty signing in Detroit suggests Minnesota can afford to add a mid-tier free agent arm this offseason. There’s plenty such starters available, with Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, and Mike Clevinger among the names expected to fall in a similar tier to Maeda this winter.

3. When will the hitting, relief markets start heating up?

As the hot stove has begun to heat up, the focus has largely been on starting pitching. Maeda and Gray join Nola, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn as free agent rotation arms who have signed big league deals this month. Meanwhile, right-hander Reynaldo Lopez inked a three-year deal with an Atlanta club who intends to stretch the reliever out for a rotation audition of his own come Spring Training.

All of that buzz on the rotation market stands in sharp contrast to the position player and relief markets, which have been relatively quiet in the offseason’s first month. Joe Jimenez’s three-year deal with the Braves on the first day of free agency still represents the most significant relief contract of the offseason, while infielder Paul DeJong’s one-year agreement with the White Sox represents the lone positional signing of significance of the winter to this point.

Here are three things we’re monitoring as we cobble some leftovers together…

1. Black Friday deals:

Now that Thanksgiving has passed, it’s time to find deals. That applies both for regular shoppers and for baseball teams, with Chad Thornburg of MLB.com putting together a list of notable transactions that took place on Black Friday in recent years. The Mets were particularly busy in 2021, agreeing to terms with Starling Marte and Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The deals wouldn’t be official until the following week, but news broke on all three deals on Black Friday. It also seems like the Canadians, who celebrate Thanksgiving in October, like to tiptoe in while the Americans are logy. The Blue Jays traded for Josh Donaldson on Black Friday in 2014 and then signed J.A. Happ one year later. Will 2023 see any kind of similar activity?

2. DeJong needs a roster spot:

The White Sox and shortstop Paul DeJong agreed to a major league deal earlier this week, but it’s still pending a physical. The Sox have a full 40-man roster, so they will have to open up a spot for him whenever it’s official. It’s possible that the holiday will delay that physical until next week, giving the club some time to perhaps consider a trade that opens a spot for him.

3. What’s next for Longoria?

As a free agent a year ago, Evan Longoria had a reported preference to sign with either the Rays, Giants or Diamondbacks. For the Rays and Giants, he was familiar with them as those were the only two clubs he had previously played with, while the D’Backs were on the list because he has a home in Arizona. He ended up signing a one-year deal with the Snakes and that club had a magical season, going all the way to the World Series. But the D’Backs just replaced him at the hot corner by acquiring Eugenio Suárez from the Mariners. The Giants have J.D. Davis and have been connected to free agent Matt Chapman. The Rays have Isaac Paredes at third and are seemingly looking to cut costs, considering trades for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. It was reported last month that Longoria was leaning towards playing again in 2024 but it’s possible he may have to be more open-minded about his landing spot.

Here are three things we’ll be watching on Thanksgiving…

1. Holiday dealings:

Will any agents or general managers step away from the holiday feast in order to pick up a phone and make a deal? Thanksgiving tends to be pretty quiet in baseball circles but notable things have happened before. Back in 2020, MLBTR posted a list of some notable transactions that went down on Thanksgiving, including Torii Hunter signing a five-year deal with the Angels in 2007. The Marlins were particularly busy in 2005, sending Carlos Delgado and cash to the Mets for Grant Psomas, Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit, and then finishing an even bigger deal that sent Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to the Red Sox for Jesús Delgado, Harvey García, Hanley Ramírez and Aníbal Sánchez.

2. Starting pitching market:

Overall, there’s been little movement this offseason, but the starting pitching market seems to have more momentum than other areas. Multiple reports suggest that demand for rotation help is incredibly high and a few names have come off the board already. The Phillies were able to retain Aaron Nola while the Cardinals signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. There’s a ticking clock on Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he has been posted, while Shota Imanaga is expected to be posted on Monday. It appears the ball is rolling down the hill and picking up some steam, so teams in this area might have to be ready to jump.

3. Jensen in DFA limbo:

The Mariners swung a two-for-one deal yesterday, flipping Eugenio Suárez to Arizona for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala. That left them needing a roster spot, which squeezed out Ryan Jensen. The M’s now have less than a week to work out a trade or try to pass Jensen through waivers. He didn’t have a great season in the minors in 2023 but there are so many open roster spots around the league right now, with many clubs having just freed up space via non-tenders and free agency. The Mets only have 28 players on their 40-man, while Atlanta and San Diego are each at 31. Perhaps that will help Jensen find another landing spot in the next few days.

Three things to watch around the baseball world as we head towards the weekend….

1. Non-tender deadline day:

One of the busiest days of the offseason calendar, today at 7pm CT is the deadline for teams to issue contracts to their arbitration-eligible players.  Several dozen new free agents will be created today as clubs pass on retaining some of their arb-eligibles, and we’re in for a flurry of other related moves — trades to clear roster space, and at least a few contract agreements with players and teams avoiding a future arbitration hearing.

Matt Swartz’s annual projection model for MLB Trade Rumors gives some idea about what these arb-eligible players are set to earn next season, and naturally several of the names on that list have already reached agreements, been released, designated for assignment, or traded in the six weeks since Matt originally published his projections.  For an idea of which players might be a little nervous today, here is MLBTR’s list of potential non-tender candidates.

2. The Braves and White Sox swing a deal:

In case you missed it late last night, the Braves and White Sox got things rolling on non-tender day moves by announcing an intriguing five-for-one trade.  Aaron Bummer is now part of the Atlanta bullpen, while the Sox picked up five players — right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander Jared Shuster, infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake and minor league right-hander Riley Gowens.  In one fell swoop, Chicago added some badly-needed depth to its rotation and middle infield, while moving a reliever who has a notable injury and who posted a 6.79 ERA over 58 1/3 innings in 2023.  That said, Bummer’s advanced metrics (such as a 3.72 SIERA) were far more favorable to the southpaw’s performance, and the Braves clearly wanted to do some roster-pruning in advance of today’s non-tender deadline.  Lopez (projected $3.9MM) and Soroka ($3MM) are both eligible for arbitration, so Atlanta managed to get some value for the two players rather than non-tendering them for nothing.

3. Ohtani’s adorable dog:

If Shohei Ohtani wasn’t enough of a viral sensation already, he gained even more buzz during last night’s announcement of the AL MVP Award.  Winning unanimous MVP honors for the second time in your career is one thing, but when you win the award with your best canine friend by your side for a high-five (high-paw?), the internet is going to take notice.  Somewhere, front office staffers are quickly googling lists of the best dog parks in their cities, searching for any sort of edge in Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes.

As the early part of MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today…

1. MVP awards to be announced:

MLB’s awards season will conclude today with the reveal of the AL and NL’s Most Valuable Player award winners at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network. In the American League, voting is expected to be dominated by Shohei Ohtani, the two-way superstar who won the award in 2021 and fell just short of repeating in 2022 with a second-place finish. Now perhaps the greatest free agent in MLB history, Ohtani slashed .304/.412/.654 — good for an MLB-leading 180 wRC+ — while leading the AL with 44 homers at the plate. On the mound, Ohtani was limited to just 23 starts due to injury but posted a 3.14 ERA with a whopping 31.5% strikeout rate over 132 innings of work. Though Ohtani’s excellence takes nothing away from Rangers up-the-middle stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the other two finalists for the award, it would be a shock if Ohtani didn’t take home the trophy in the AL.

The NL award is more competitive. The favorite is Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. who slashed an incredible .337/.416/.596 (170 wRC+) in 735 trips to the plate while crushing 41 home runs and swiping 73 bases. That performance gave him just the fifth 40-40 season in MLB history but also made him the inaugural member of the 40-50, 40-60, and 40-70 clubs. Still, Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts warrants plenty of consideration in his own right. Betts slashed .307/.408/.579 with a 167 wRC+, but perhaps the most interesting piece of his MVP case is his unusual versatility. Despite having just 228 innings of work in the infield at the big league level in his career entering the season (all at second base), Betts logged considerable time at both the keystone and shortstop this season, appearing in 86 games on the infield dirt while starting there in 74 of them. The third finalist, Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, was incredible in his own right as he posted a 20/20 season while hitting a whopping 59 doubles, but appears destined for third place due to the excellence of both Betts and Acuna this season.

2. Owners vote on A’s relocation:

MLB’s offseason Owners Meetings are underway, and one major order of business is expected to be conducted today. Per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, owners are expected to vote on the A’s plan to relocate from Oakland to Las Vegas today. That vote is expected to go smoothly, with the A’s proposal easily clearing the 75% threshold necessary for relocation to be approved. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has a news conference scheduled later today during which he’s likely to discuss the outcome of the vote and the A’s relocation plan. Importantly, one part of the A’s plan that is still unclear is where they will play following the expiration of their lease at the Coliseum after 2024, with their stadium in Las Vegas expected to be ready for the 2028 season. Some possibilities that have been floated include a short-term extension of the Coliseum lease, using their Triple-A affiliate’s stadium in Las Vegas, or perhaps even sharing Oracle Park with the Giants.

3. Will the trade market heat up prior to tomorrow’s deadline?

The early parts of the offseason have been fairly quiet this November, with the biggest trade of the offseason so far being an early November swap that sent outfielder Mark Canha from Milwaukee to Detroit. That being said, it’s possible that tomorrow’s non-tender deadline could spur some activity over the next day and a half. Last night saw the Brewers ship infielder Abraham Toro, who is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to make $1.3MM in arbitration this offseason, to Oakland. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco compiled a list of potential non-tender candidates late last month, any of whom could at least feasibly be shopped over the next day if their club is considering a non-tender.

As the early days of MLB’s offseason continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to look out for today…

1. Cy Young Awards to be announced:

MLB’s awards season continues this evening as the results of Cy Young award voting in both leagues are set to be announced at 5pm CT tonight on MLB Network. In the American League, Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole is widely considered the favorite for the award after leading the AL in ERA (2.63), Games Started (33), Innings Pitched (209), ERA+ (165), and WHIP (0.981). Twins veteran Sonny Gray, who posted a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings across 32 starts this season, and Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman, who led the AL with 237 strikeouts to go along with his 3.16 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 185 innings of work over 31 starts, are the other finalists in the AL.

The race for the NL award is somewhat murkier. Left-hander Blake Snell, who pitched for the Padres in 2023 before hitting the open market earlier this month, is considered by most to be the favorite for the award. Snell led the majors with an excellent 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work across 32 starts, with an excellent 182 ERA+ that also led the majors. That said, Snell’s eye-popping 13.3% walk rate and ten starts where he failed to record an out in the sixth inning are both blemishes that could dissuade some voters. Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen, who helped lead Arizona to the World Series this year with a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP across 34 starts and 210 innings of work, and Giants righty Logan Webb, who led the majors with 216 innings of work across 33 starts and posted an NL-best 3.6% walk rate, are the other finalists in the NL this year.

2. Will Quantrill reach free agency?

The Guardians designated right-hander Cal Quantrill for assignment yesterday rather than pay him a raise in arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a 2024 salary of $6.6MM. It was a somewhat unexpected move; while Quantrill struggled badly in 2023 amid shoulder issues, he combined for a 3.16 ERA and 4.10 FIP across 336 innings of work across the 2021-22 campaigns while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen. Now the Guardians will have a final opportunity to attempt to work out a trade involving Quantrill or expose him to outright waivers.

That being said, it’s possible the widespread need for starting pitching around the league and the increase to the price of pitching in recent years could spur additional interest in Quantrill’s services. It would hardly be a shock if a club preferred two years of team control over Quantrill at an arbitration-level rate to the pricier commitments bounce-back starters like Noah Syndergaard (one year, $13MM) and Sean Manaea (two years, $25MM) received on the open market last offseason.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

As we prepare for one of the first major deadlines of the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Rule 5 draft protection deadline:

This evening marks one of several deadlines in the early part of the offseason: the deadline for protecting prospects from next month’s Rule 5 draft. Though the Rule 5 draft won’t take place until the Winter Meetings, today at 5pm CT is the deadline by which teams must add prospects they wish to protect from the draft to their 40-man rosters. The deadline typically sparks plenty of movement as teams look to clear space on their 40-man rosters for prospects in need of protections, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests that this year will be no different, reporting that trade talks are picking up all around baseball in advance of today’s deadline.

2. Qualifying Offer deadline:

The Rule 5 draft protection deadline isn’t the only deadline scheduled for today, however. At 3pm CT this afternoon, the seven players who received qualifying offers earlier in the offseason will have to decide whether to accept the one-year, $20.35MM offer or reject it and test the open market. All seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, and Sonny Gray — are expected to decline the QO and test free agency. Players that do so will attached to draft pick compensation, providing their previous team with an outgoing draft pick should they sign elsewhere while forcing their new club to give up draft capital and international bonus pool space. The details on what teams stand to lose or gain from the signing of qualified free agents were covered by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month.

3. Manager of the Year announced:

Awards season around MLB continues at 5pm CT this evening with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards set to be announced. In the AL, Bruce Bochy of the Rangers, Kevin Cash of the Rays, and Brandon Hyde of the Orioles are the three finalists for the award. Cash skippered the Rays to a 99-win season that saw them win their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern record, while Hyde and Bochy both guided their clubs to a postseason appearance despite the Orioles and Rangers both entering the season expected to be little more than fringe contenders. It would be Hyde’s first time winning the award, while Cash has won the award twice previously. Bochy, meanwhile, has never won in the AL but won in the NL with the Padres back in 1996.

Meanwhile, the NL features a relatively unusual bit of drama; alongside Brian Snitker of the Braves and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins, Craig Counsell is nominated for the award for his work with the Brewers this season despite having departed the organization for the division rival Cubs last week. For all his accolades as one of the league’s finest managers, Counsell has never won a Manager of the Year award. Schumaker, of course, hasn’t either as a rookie skipper who just concluded his first season in the role. Snitker, on the other hand, won the award previously in 2018. His work with the Braves that year led him to finish just ahead of Counsell, who was the runner-up for the award.