The Opener

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world this weekend:

1. Deals to avoid arbitration:

The non-tender deadline is one week from today, and last night saw the first player of the winter look to avoid the arbitration process entirely and sign with his club early. In this case, the Angels avoided arbitration with recently-acquired utilityman Scott Kingery, though the financial details of that deal are not yet known. The days leading up to the non-tender deadline are typically rife with similar deals signed by players on the non-tender bubble, often referred to as pre-tender deals. Mets DH DJ Stewart and Rockies southpaw Jalen Beeks were among the players who signed such agreements a year ago. Pre-tender deals often fall shy of expectations/projections, as the alternative to accepting that lower salary is typically a non-tender.

2. 40-man roster moves looming:

Even sooner than the non-tender deadline is the deadline for teams to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, which is scheduled for this coming Tuesday at 5pm CT. While many teams have a handful of 40-man roster spots available for prospects that need protection, that’s not true for every club, and even some clubs with roster space available will have more prospects to protect than openings. Most clubs will wait until the final hours leading into the deadline to announce these moves, but some could get a jump on clearing roster space this weekend.

The Red Sox stand out as one particularly interesting example of a club in need of roster space. Not only do they have a full 40-man roster, but they also have a player in need of protection who isn’t a typical prospect: right-hander Michael Fulmer, who signed with the club on a two-year minor league deal last winter while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. If not added onto the club’s 40-man roster by Tuesday, Fulmer will be a rare established big leaguer available in the Rule 5 draft and for that reason would stand a strong chance of getting selected away from Boston during the Winter Meetings next month.

3. The Hernandez market:

Juan Soto has understandably dominated headlines for major free agent hitters this offseason, particularly with him taking individual meetings with interested teams over the course of the past week. Many top-tier free agents will want to wait for Soto’s decision before signing, as the teams that miss on Soto will be motivated to pursue alternatives more aggressively. One possible exception? Teoscar Hernandez, who just won his third career Silver Slugger Award. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested earlier this week that Hernandez may not wait for Soto to sign and could be one of the first big-name free agents off the board this winter.

Hernandez sat on the market for more than two months last offseason awaiting a three-year offer that never materialized. He eventually signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers in January. Given that lengthy stay on last year’s market, it’s understandable that he’d prefer a quicker turnaround this winter. The Dodgers, Orioles and Red Sox have all been connected to Hernandez thus far. He slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 homers and tied a career-high 12 steals with L.A. in the regular season, then went on to hit .250/.352/.417 with three home runs during the Dodgers’ postseason run to a 2024 World Series crown.

As the early days of the offseason continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Awards ceremony tonight:

While the most notable awards for the 2024 season won’t be announced until next week, a number of others are set to be announced this evening. The All-MLB first and second teams, the Hank Aaron Award for best overall offensive player in each league, the Reliever of the Year award for the best bullpen arm in each league, the Comeback Player of the Year award for the player in each league who overcame hardship to impact his team, and the Outstanding DH Award for MLB’s best designated hitter will all be unveiled tonight.

Shohei Ohtani appears likely to be in line for his fourth consecutive Outstanding DH Award as well as the NL Hank Aaron Award, while Aaron Judge appears to be the most likely candidate for the AL Hank Aaron Award. Braves southpaw Chris Sale is the most likely candidate for the NL Comeback Player of the Year award, while in the AL free agent slugger Tyler O’Neill and White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet are among the potential candidates. There’s a deep crop of candidates for the AL Reliever of the Year award including Mason Miller, Kirby Yates, and Cade Smith, but Emmanuel Clase appears to be the most likely candidate for the award after posting a 0.61 ERA during the regular season. Meanwhile, Raisel Iglesias, Jeff Hoffman, Tanner Scott, and Ryan Helsley are among the likely candidates in the NL.

2. Diamond Sports Group hearing today:

The saga surrounding Diamond Sports Group and broadcasting rights for a number of MLB clubs continues today as Diamond faces a confirmation hearing, where their plan to restructure the company will need to be approved by a bankruptcy court in order to continue operations for the 2025 season. A number of teams (with the Tigers and Rays among the most recent) have reached new deals with Diamond at a lower rate in order to maintain their broadcasting agreements, though a few clubs have opted to look for a new broadcasting partner or handed distribution off to the league. Even after today’s hearing, some questions will remain. The Reds and Rangers have parted ways with Diamond but do not have a clear broadcasting plan for 2025 at this point, while the Royals are still negotiating with Diamond but have not yet come to an agreement.

3. Teams rounding out coaching staffs:

While yesterday was rather light on hot stove transactions, a number of teams announced tweaks to their coaching staffs. The Pirates named two new coaches, while the Phillies, Guardians, and Red Sox each had a coaching change of their own. We’ve seen plenty of personnel decisions since the season ended, but there are still plenty of vacant jobs around the league. For example, the Cubs and Brewers are both currently without a first base coach, while the Orioles have yet to hire a bench coach for next season. The Marlins, in particular, figure to be extremely active in hiring coaches as new manager Clayton McCullough is tasked with filling out a coaching staff that turned over completely following the departure of former manager Skip Schumaker.

4. Live video chat today for subscribers:

The first-ever MLBTR live video chat takes place today at 10am central time!  If you’re a Trade Rumors Front Office member, you received an email yesterday with the Zoom link.  Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco will be on video answering questions live for one hour.

As the early part of the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Soto meeting with teams:

The bidding for superstar outfielder Juan Soto is already getting underway, and the first order of business is for interested clubs to meet with Soto himself. That’s a process that’s set to play out this week, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, and the incumbent Yankees all known to have scheduled a meeting at this point. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that Toronto is first in line to meet with Soto this week as they look to add a star hitter to complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after missing out of Shohei Ohtani last winter, though the two New York teams have generally been regarded as the favorites for the 26-year-old phenom to this point in the process.

2. What’s next for the Angels?

The Angels have been the most aggressive team in baseball this November with a number of moves already in the books. They shipped Griffin Canning to the Braves in order to land slugger Jorge Soler, then replaced Canning in their starting rotation by signing veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks to a one-year deal. They’ve now added further reinforcements by bringing in veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud on a two-year pact.

There’s reason to believe that aggressiveness could continue, as well; with Logan O’Hoppe entrenched as the club’s starting catcher and d’Arnaud now in the mix as an above-average backup option, it would seem likely the club is set to move on from Matt Thaiss, who served as O’Hoppe’s backup this year and the club’s primary catcher in 2023 while O’Hoppe was injured. The Athletic’s Sam Blum relayed uncertainty from GM Perry Minasian regarding what Thaiss’ future with the club is following the move to land d’Arnaud. With the non-tender deadline scheduled for next week and Thaiss projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $1.3MM, a decision on his future could be imminent.

3. Rays stadium plans remain murky:

A report yesterday from Tampa revealed that the Rays’ home of Tropicana Field could be fixed for the 2026 season. That news took the unsurprising step of more or less officially ruling out the possibility of the club returning to their ballpark in 2025 while also leaving their medium-term future uncertain. The city of St. Petersburg, which owns the stadium and is responsible for any repairs, has an insurance policy that would cover $25MM of the $55.7MM required to repair the Trop. Whether the city will look to do so is not yet clear, and until they make that decision the Rays won’t know whether they’ll be nomadic only in 2025 or for the next three seasons until their new stadium is built for the 2028 campaign. In the meantime, they’ll need to find a place to play for next season in the near future, as commissioner Rob Manfred recently suggested that there needs to be a plan in place by late December.

As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Silver Slugger Awards announced:

The finalists for this year’s Silver Slugger Awards were announced just over a week ago, and the winners are set to be announced at 5pm CT this evening. As noted by Manny Randhawa and Brian Murphy of MLB.com, the award for second base in the AL has perhaps the most intrigue involved. With a win, Astros star Jose Altuve would tie Ryne Sandberg for the most Silver Sluggers at the keystone all-time (seven). Altuve he hit .295/.350/.439 with 20 homers and 22 steals in 153 games this year. Meanwhile, the NL outfield nominees are full of fresh talent; of the five nominees, only Teoscar Hernandez has won the award before. Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill are both finalists for the NL Rookie of the Year award in additional to the Silver Slugger, while Seiya Suzuki and Jurickson Profar are both established big leaguers coming off career seasons.

2. Will the Braves stay active?

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has a tendency to work more quickly than other executives around the sport during the offseason. This year, he kicked off the winter by trading Jorge Soler to the Angels in the first major transaction of hot stove season, and just yesterday he swung a second trade with an AL West club, bringing in infielder Nick Allen from the Athletics. While Atlanta has primarily been focused on the trade market to this point, last November the club signed right-hander Joe Jimenez to a three-year deal in free agency while also standing among the top suitors for early-signing starters Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola. With just over two weeks before the calendar flips to December, does the league’s most active early offseason club have more moves on the way?

3. MLBTR Chat today:

While the offseason is still young, the rumor mill has begun to churn and some deals have already been made. Next up on the winter’s calendar is a pair of key deadlines for clubs next week: the Rule 5 protection deadline and the non-tender deadline. Whether you have questions about those looming deadlines, who your favorite team will be targeting this winter, or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

As a new week of the MLB offseason begins, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. BBWAA awards finalists to be announced:

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America will reveal the top three vote-getters (a.k.a. the finalists) for each of their four major awards tonight at 5:00 pm CT on MLB Network. Those four awards are the Most Valuable Player, the Cy Young Award, the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year, and the Manager of the Year. The favorites for the MVP and Cy Young in each league are already quite clear, while the Rookie of the Year looks like a two-man race in both the AL and NL. Aaron Judge (AL) and Shohei Ohtani (NL) are the MVP frontrunners, and Tarik Skubal (AL) and Chris Sale (NL) are the Cy Young frontrunners. Colton Cowser and Luis Gil seem to be the two strongest candidates for AL Rookie of the Year, while Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes are battling it out in the NL. Simply put, it will be a major upset if any of the above names are not included among the finalists.

Tonight’s announcement could be most eye-opening when it comes to the Manager of the Year competition, which is often harder to predict. Potential candidates include Stephen Vogt (CLE), Matt Quatraro (KCR), A.J. Hinch (DET), and Brandon Hyde (BAL) in the AL and Pat Murphy (MIL), Mike Shildt (SDP), Rob Thomson (PHI), and Carlos Mendoza (NYM) in the NL.

2. Marlins and McCullough to make it official?

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported on Sunday that the Marlins have hired Clayton McCullough as their new manager, but the team has yet to confirm the news. Fans can expect a formal announcement from Miami in the coming days, as well as a press conference to introduce the new skipper. For what it’s worth, the Marlins announced Skip Schumaker’s hiring in 2022 the same day the news broke, although he wasn’t officially introduced until the following week.

With McCullough’s hiring, all three managerial openings around the league have now been filled. However, there are still plenty of coaching roles available, particularly on McCullough’s staff in Miami. The Marlins have reportedly hired Pedro Guerrero to be their new hitting coach, but just about every other coaching job in Miami is still up for grabs.

3. Free Agent Prediction Contest closes tonight:

Get your picks in quick, because the annual MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest closes tonight at 11:00 pm CT. And if you’ve already submitted your answers, don’t forget that you can edit the form until the entry period closes. Click here to enter the contest now!

The goal is simple: Correctly predict where MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents will sign this offseason. The winner will receive a $500 prize, and there is a $300 prize for the runner-up and a $100 prize for the third-place finisher. Anyone who finishes in the top 15 will also receive a one-year membership to Trade Rumors Front Office. For more details about the contest, click here.

Now that the GM Meetings have wrapped up, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball this weekend:

1. Platinum Glove winners to be revealed:

The Gold Glove Award winners were announced last weekend, honoring the best defensive player in each league at each position. Later today, Rawlings will reveal the winner of the 2024 Platinum Glove Awards, which honor the top defensive player in each league, regardless of position. All 10 Gold Glove winners in each league are eligible for the Platinum Glove, which is determined by a fan vote. Voting was live from Sunday through Thursday night.

Two previous Platinum Glove winners are eligible again this year: Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez and Giants third baseman Matt Chapman. Other strong contenders include Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho, who won the Fielding Bible Defensive Player of the Year Award, and Giants catcher Patrick Bailey, who led the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value.

2. MLB’s objection deadline in DSG bankruptcy case:

Diamond Sports Group must prove in bankruptcy court that it has a feasible plan of action to avoid liquidation in the future, and Major League Baseball has the right to object to that plan. According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, MLB has until 2:00 pm CT this afternoon to file its formal objection. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that this deadline has already been pushed back several times.

The Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins reportedly have deals in place to continue broadcasting their games with Diamond if/when the company emerges from bankruptcy, while the Twins, Guardians, and Brewers will broadcast their games through MLB instead. The Rangers have not yet made alternate plans, but they have suggested they will not negotiate a new deal with Diamond. As Drellich points out, that leaves the broadcast situations for the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, and Rays up in the air. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports that DSG “remains in talks with at least some of those teams.”

3. WBSC Premier12 kicks off this weekend:

The Premier12 championship, organized by the World Baseball Softball Confederation, is set to kick off this Saturday. The action will begin with Panama vs. Netherlands, while Puerto Rico will take on the USA later that day. More matchups of the weekend include Venezuela vs. Mexico, Venezuela vs. Panama, Netherlands vs. the USA, and Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. The tournament, which features the 12 highest-ranked national baseball teams worldwide, runs from November 9 to 24. Games will be played in Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.

Players on a 40-man roster are not eligible to participate in the Premier12, but there are several top-100 prospects on this year’s Team USA roster: Rays infielder Carson Williams, Cubs infielder Matt Shaw, Phillies outfielder Justin Crawford, Pirates infielder Termarr Johnson and Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. There are also a handful of free agents with MLB experience on this year’s roster, including Rich Hill and Dan Altavilla. The WBSC’s official web site has more info on the Premier12 event and full rosters for all the teams involved.

With the first position player and starting pitcher deals of this year’s free agency now in the books, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Marlins managerial search nearing conclusion?

After the White Sox recently hired Will Venable to take over the club’s managerial gig, that left just one club without a skipper set to helm the dugout in 2025: the Marlins, whose new hire will have their work cut out for them after the club decided against bringing back the entire 2024 coaching staff. Fans in Miami have been in suspense about the club’s next manager for quite some time, and there’s some reason to believe the search is coming to an end. Jon Morosi of MLB Network said yesterday that Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix told him that he was “nearing” a decision on the club’s new manager. Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and Tigers bench coach George Lombard are among the rumored names not yet known to be out of the running.

2. Angels 40-man move incoming:

The Angels made their first free agent signing of the offseason yesterday when they agreed to a one-year deal with longtime Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks, 35 in December, is coming off the worst season of his career in 2024 but was once among the most effective starters in the league in terms of run prevention and put up solid mid-rotation results (114 ERA+) as recently as 2023. He’ll slot into a rotation that currently includes little certainty outside of veteran Tyler Anderson and young righty José Soriano. Hendricks joins trade acquisition Jorge Soler as the key pieces Anaheim has already added in a busy start to the offseason.

Before Hendricks’ deal with the Halos can become official, however, the club will need to make room for him on the 40-man roster. That will likely require the club to designate a player for assignment, but it’s possible the club could try to work out a trade to clear a spot on the 40-man as well.

3. MLBTR Top 50 Chat today:

Earlier this week, we here at MLBTR posted our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, complete with contract and team predictions. It’s our biggest post of the year, jam-packed with information and analysis. If you have any questions about the list and our predictions, you’re in luck, as Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald will be hosting a joint live chat at 9am CT today! You can click here to submit a question in advance, participate live when the chat begins, and read the transcript after it concludes.

As the offseason continues to get underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. GM Meetings continue:

The annual GM Meetings are currently underway in San Antonio, Texas, with top decision-makers around the baseball world having gathered to open negotiations as hot stove season gets underway. While these meetings are far less active than the Winter Meetings in December, they nonetheless offer important clues as to the direction each franchise plans to move in for the coming offseason. Today, in particular, figures to be significant as Chandler Rome of The Athletic noted yesterday that agent Scott Boras is set to make his annual address to reporters regarding the state of the game and the coming offseason. One of the most powerful agents in the sport, Boras represents a number of the winter’s top free agents including Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, and Blake Snell.

2. Padres, Shildt nearing deal:

It was reported yesterday evening that the Padres are finalizing an extension for manager Mike Shildt. The possibility of San Diego looking to lock up their manager longer-term has been on the table for some time now, but the sides have clearly made progress on the deal and it could be officially announced in the near future. Shildt spent four years at the helm of the Cardinals and won NL Manager of the Year in 2019. 2024 was his first season with the Padres after Bob Melvin departed to manage in San Francisco, and it hardly could have gone better for the club as he led San Diego to a 93-69 record and a win in the NL Wild Card series over the Braves, though they eventually fell in five games to the Dodgers during the NLDS.

3. Big names coming off the trade market?

As fans around the league begin speculating about their team’s plans for the coming offseason, many focus on the possibility of finding a star on the trade market rather than paying the hefty prices to be seen in free agency. Such a maneuver might be difficult to pull off this winter, however, as even teams that weren’t competitive in 2024 seem reluctant to part ways with their stars. Yesterday saw both the Athletics and Blue Jays throw cold water on the possibility of trading a frequently speculated upon star (Brent Rooker and Bo Bichette, respectively). Those comments from Toronto also notably come after frequent indications in recent months that the club has no interest in dealing away first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With so many offensive talents thought to be possible trade candidates now seemingly off the board, will other surprise hitters reach the trade market or will teams have to settle for improving on offense through free agency?

With the offseason now fully underway, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. GM Meetings underway:

Amid all the chaos of yesterday’s deadlines, decision-makers around the baseball world arrived in San Antonio, Texas for the annual GM Meetings. Top executives from all 30 clubs gather at the meetings near the beginning of the offseason each year, serving as something of an unofficial beginning to hot stove season. While the GM Meetings are typically nowhere near as active as the Winter Meetings that occur in December given their early date on the offseason calendar, they serve as a first opportunity for agents and clubs to begin discussion of free agents and for front offices to gauge rival teams’ early interests on the trade market.

This will be newly-minted Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey’s first major event in his new role, while Chaim Bloom will be attending for the first time since being announced as the heir to John Mozeliak at the top of baseball operations in St. Louis. Executives around baseball figure to speak with the media throughout the meetings, and those comments could provide a peek at their organization’s plans for the winter.

2. Free agents open for business:

As of 4pm CT yesterday afternoon, free agency has now properly begun and players are free to sign with any club they choose. While it could still take some time for signings to actually begin in earnest as agents and executives open negotiations, the month of November nonetheless sees a handful of signings every year. For example, 16 free agents signed big league deals in November of last year, including six multi-year deals. Right-handers Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and Reynaldo Lopez were perhaps the most significant free agents to sign early last year as the pitching market developed more quickly that the market for hitters, although it’s impossible to say at this point if this year’s free agent class will follow a similar trend. While waiting for news from the hot stove, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, our Free Agent Prediction Contest, and our comprehensive list of this winter’s free agents.

3. MLBTR chat:

With the players available in free agency now set in stone and able to sign with any club, it’s time for the first weekday chat of the offseason! Whether you have questions about our recently-published Top 50 Free Agents list and who your favorite team will be targeting this winter or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Also note that on Thursday morning this week, the MLBTR staff will be hosting a joint chat focused specifically on our Top 50 Free Agent list and predictions. Check back in Thursday’s Opener for further details. Additionally, this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast will feature Tim, Steve, Anthony and Darragh all discussing the work and thought that went into our Top 50 rankings and predictions. That extra-long episode will release tomorrow morning!

With free agency scheduled to begin in earnest later today, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Deadline for option decisions:

A number of option decisions were settled over the weekend as players like starters Blake Snell and Sean Manaea opted out of their contracts while outfielder Cody Bellinger and starter Robbie Ray were among those to stick with their current clubs. A handful of option decisions remain, however, and will need to be sorted out before 4pm CT this afternoon. Among the most notable are Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, and Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna. Eovaldi and Kershaw both have the ability to opt out of the final year of their contracts, while Atlanta holds a club option on Ozuna’s services for 2025. While most remaining options will either be straightforwardly picked up or declined, it’s possible some players and clubs could look to get together on a longer, reworked contract as the Royals and right-hander Michael Wacha did yesterday.

Perhaps the most interesting option decision of the day is the one facing the Yankees. Veteran ace Gerrit Cole opted out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract with the club on Saturday, but unlike most opt-out decisions that doesn’t automatically make him a free agent. Instead, the Yankees have until this evening to decide whether to allow Cole to test free agency or tack on an additional year and $36MM to the end of his deal, guaranteeing him $180MM over the next five years. $36MM annually through Cole’s age-38 season might be more than he’d earn in free agency coming off an injury-shortened season, but it nonetheless wouldn’t be a surprise if the Yankees went the extra mile to make sure they keep their ace in the fold during an offseason where their attention is going to be squarely focused on retaining Juan Soto.

2. Qualifying Offers to be made today:

Option decisions aren’t the only order of business due by 4pm CT this afternoon. That deadline also applies to clubs wishing to make a qualifying offer to their departing free agents. The QO, which is set at $21.2MM this year, is a one-year contract offer that clubs must make to players in order to receive draft pick compensation should they sign elsewhere in free agency. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco previewed QO decisions for both position players and pitchers last month, with Mets right-hander Luis Severino standing out as perhaps the most interesting borderline candidate to receive a QO. The majority of the winter’s top free agents, including Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, are locks to receive (and reject) the QO. Once the QO is extended to a player, he has until 3pm CT November 19 to decide whether to accept or reject that offer.

3. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents:

With the 2024-25 class of free agents on the verge of being mostly set in stone this afternoon, we here at MLBTR are excited to unveil our annual Top 50 Free Agents list later today. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the events of an unpredictable offseason.