The Opener

The hot stove is heating up with a notable overnight signing. Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Is a Cease trade on the horizon?

With the White Sox openly considering deals for any and all players on their roster, right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the hottest names on the rumor mill to this point in the offseason. Cease’s trade candidacy began to escalate somewhat yesterday, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi even suggesting that it’s possible a deal could be in place before the start of the Winter Meetings this weekend. The Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, and Orioles have all been publicly connected to Cease, whose trade market we examined earlier this month.

While Cease is coming off an uneven 2023 campaign that saw him post a 4.58 ERA despite a solid 3.72 FIP, he owns a much stronger 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons and could have more appeal to some clubs as a target than other arms rumored to be available such as Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow due to the fact that he’s arbitration eligible for both the 2024 and ’25 campaigns.

2. What’s next for the Reds?

The Reds have mostly sat out free agency in recent years, with zero players signed to multi-year contracts since the 2019-20 offseason that saw them bring in Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, and Wade Miley on multi-year pacts. That inactivity changed yesterday, however, as the club reportedly agreed to terms with two right-handers on two-year contracts: reliever Emilio Pagan and swingman Nick Martinez. The moves help to shore up a pitching staff that proved to be the primary culprit behind the Reds missing the postseason with an 82-80 record in 2023 despite the emergence of a core of young players like Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Elly De La Cruz (among others).

While the combined guarantee of $42MM to Pagan and Martinez represents a substantial financial outlay relative to Cincinnati’s recent spending habits, the club likely has plenty of room to add further salary; RosterResource projects their 2024 payroll at just $71MM — $16MM below their 2023 payroll and more than $50MM below the club’s all-time high payroll of $126MM in 2019, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

3. Outstanding DH Award winner announced:

MLB’s awards season will conclude tonight with the announcement of this year’s Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award winner. The winner will be announced at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network. While the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, and Marcell Ozuna all had excellent seasons at DH in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the award going to anyone other than free agent superstar Shohei Ohtani. If Ohtani does take home the hardware, it’ll be his third consecutive season doing so. That’s more consecutive wins than any player other than David Ortiz, who won the award five seasons in a row from 2003-07. Martinez himself won the award five times between 1995 to 2001, though never more than twice consecutively.

As the Winter Meetings approach, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Brewers facing big decisions:

Few teams in baseball are facing as wide an array of possible outcomes this offseason as the Brewers. After losing longtime manager Craig Counsell to the division rival Cubs and non-tendering injured ace Brandon Woodruff earlier this month, the club is facing major decisions on the futures of right-hander Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames, both of whom are slated to hit free agency after the 2024 season. In a recent poll of MLBTR readers nearly 78% of respondents suggested the club should move Burnes, who has spoken candidly about the lack of extension negotiations between the sides.

On the other hand, the club is the reigning NL Central champion and would likely have trouble fending off up-and-coming clubs like the Reds and Cubs next season if they were to lose both Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason. As Milwaukee brass ponders whether to maximize the club’s odds in 2024 or build for the long term, the club is simultaneously discussing a precedent-setting pre-debut extension with top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio, a move that could extend the club’s window of control over a potentially elite talent while accelerating his path to the majors.

2. When will the trade market for starters kick into motion?

Burnes isn’t the only noteworthy ace-caliber arm who could be on the trade market this offseason. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber have gotten plenty of buzz as likely trade candidates so far this offseason, with reports of interest from rival clubs ramping up in recent days. Could a team look to make an impact addition to their starting rotation ahead of the Winter Meetings, which begin on Sunday evening? The Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, and Reds are the clubs that have been most frequently connected to the front-of-the-rotation arms known to be available in trade, though plenty of teams would benefit from such an addition.

3. Reliever of the Year winners to be announced:

The winners of the league’s Reliever of the Year awards, named after Trevor Hoffman in the NL and Mariano Rivera in the AL, are set to be announced this evening at 5pm CT on MLB Network. The reigning winner of the award in the NL, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury. That leaves the door wide open for other top arms such as left-handed free agent Josh Hader (1.28 ERA), Brewers righty Devin Williams (1.53 ERA), and Pirates right-hander David Bednar (2.00 ERA) to claim the award this season. Meanwhile, the AL’s top crop of relief arms this year features reigning winner Emmanuel Clase (3.22 ERA), who lead the league with 44 saves this season for the Guardians. However, the likes of Orioles righty Felix Bautista (1.48 ERA) and Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano (2.90 ERA) posted stronger run-prevention numbers than Clase this season.

With the Winter Meetings just five days away, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for today:

1. KBO asks for Go posting:

The Korea Baseball Organization requested the posting of LG Twins closer Woo Suk Go last night, per a report from Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. The right-hander is the second KBO player to begin the posting process this winter, following Kiwoom Heroes outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who coincidentally is Go’s brother-in-law. Lee isn’t expected to be officially posted for big league clubs until the calendar flips to December, and the timeline for Go’s official posting is unclear at this point. When Go is posted, clubs will have 30 days to negotiate a contract with the right-hander. Go, 25, sports a mid-90s fastball that at times touches 98 and routinely posts high strikeout rates in the KBO but struggled with his control last year, walking 11.6% of batters faced. He figures to join a right-handed relief class headlined by Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

2. What’s next in St. Louis?

The Cardinals completed the primary goal of the offseason of adding three starters to their rotation yesterday by signing veteran right-hander Sonny Gray to a three-year deal. Gray joins fellow offseason signings Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson as well as incumbent veterans Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the projected St. Louis rotation. The trio of signings push the club’s projected payroll in 2024 up to just over $193MM, per RosterResource. That payroll figure would be an all-time high for the club, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

While the club reportedly intends to pursue at least two bullpen additions this offseason, it’s unclear if the club how much, if any, payroll space the club has available for those additions. Of course, St. Louis has a deep positional mix from which they could deal to both improve their bullpen and clear space on the payroll for another addition if they so chose, particularly in the outfield where Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are both widely regarded as likely trade candidates.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

With the Winter Meetings just days away and the hot stove beginning to sizzle, do you have any burning questions in your mind about your favorite team or one of the offseason’s many free agents? If so, tune in at 1pm CT today for a live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will let you participate live or read the transcript once the chat has concluded.

After a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Gray, Maeda finalizing deals:

It was reported earlier this morning that the Cardinals are finalizing a deal with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray worth a reported $75MM over three years. That leaves Gray poised to become the second free agent who placed in the top 10 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list to sign this offseason following righty Aaron Nola, who re-upped with the Phillies earlier in the month. Gray isn’t the only free agent starter in the process of finalizing a deal, however. Per reports last night, the Tigers inking veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda to a two-year deal worth $24MM. That contract is pending a physical, which is expected to happen later today. Both Gray and Maeda will require 40-man roster spots upon their deals with St. Louis and Detroit becoming official, though both clubs have spots available meaning no corresponding transaction will be necessary to finalize either pact.

2. How will the Twins address their rotation?

Both Gray and Maeda pitched for the Twins in 2023. Maeda provided the club with 104 1/3 innings of back-of-the-rotation production following his return from Tommy John surgery this year, posting a 4.23 ERA and 4.02 FIP over 21 appearances (20 starts). Gray, meanwhile, had a career year with Minnesota and posted a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. The return of right-hander Chris Paddack to the rotation in 2024 should help alleviate the losses, though 25-year-old youngster Louie Varland, who posted a 4.63 ERA and 5.02 FIP in 68 major league innings this year, likely represents the club’s internal fifth starter.

Given that, an external addition who can join Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Paddack in the rotation could make plenty of sense. While the club is expected to reduce payroll this offseason, the club’s interest in a reunion with Maeda prior to the righty signing in Detroit suggests Minnesota can afford to add a mid-tier free agent arm this offseason. There’s plenty such starters available, with Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, and Mike Clevinger among the names expected to fall in a similar tier to Maeda this winter.

3. When will the hitting, relief markets start heating up?

As the hot stove has begun to heat up, the focus has largely been on starting pitching. Maeda and Gray join Nola, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn as free agent rotation arms who have signed big league deals this month. Meanwhile, right-hander Reynaldo Lopez inked a three-year deal with an Atlanta club who intends to stretch the reliever out for a rotation audition of his own come Spring Training.

All of that buzz on the rotation market stands in sharp contrast to the position player and relief markets, which have been relatively quiet in the offseason’s first month. Joe Jimenez’s three-year deal with the Braves on the first day of free agency still represents the most significant relief contract of the offseason, while infielder Paul DeJong’s one-year agreement with the White Sox represents the lone positional signing of significance of the winter to this point.

Here are three things we’re monitoring as we cobble some leftovers together…

1. Black Friday deals:

Now that Thanksgiving has passed, it’s time to find deals. That applies both for regular shoppers and for baseball teams, with Chad Thornburg of MLB.com putting together a list of notable transactions that took place on Black Friday in recent years. The Mets were particularly busy in 2021, agreeing to terms with Starling Marte and Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The deals wouldn’t be official until the following week, but news broke on all three deals on Black Friday. It also seems like the Canadians, who celebrate Thanksgiving in October, like to tiptoe in while the Americans are logy. The Blue Jays traded for Josh Donaldson on Black Friday in 2014 and then signed J.A. Happ one year later. Will 2023 see any kind of similar activity?

2. DeJong needs a roster spot:

The White Sox and shortstop Paul DeJong agreed to a major league deal earlier this week, but it’s still pending a physical. The Sox have a full 40-man roster, so they will have to open up a spot for him whenever it’s official. It’s possible that the holiday will delay that physical until next week, giving the club some time to perhaps consider a trade that opens a spot for him.

3. What’s next for Longoria?

As a free agent a year ago, Evan Longoria had a reported preference to sign with either the Rays, Giants or Diamondbacks. For the Rays and Giants, he was familiar with them as those were the only two clubs he had previously played with, while the D’Backs were on the list because he has a home in Arizona. He ended up signing a one-year deal with the Snakes and that club had a magical season, going all the way to the World Series. But the D’Backs just replaced him at the hot corner by acquiring Eugenio Suárez from the Mariners. The Giants have J.D. Davis and have been connected to free agent Matt Chapman. The Rays have Isaac Paredes at third and are seemingly looking to cut costs, considering trades for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. It was reported last month that Longoria was leaning towards playing again in 2024 but it’s possible he may have to be more open-minded about his landing spot.

Here are three things we’ll be watching on Thanksgiving…

1. Holiday dealings:

Will any agents or general managers step away from the holiday feast in order to pick up a phone and make a deal? Thanksgiving tends to be pretty quiet in baseball circles but notable things have happened before. Back in 2020, MLBTR posted a list of some notable transactions that went down on Thanksgiving, including Torii Hunter signing a five-year deal with the Angels in 2007. The Marlins were particularly busy in 2005, sending Carlos Delgado and cash to the Mets for Grant Psomas, Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit, and then finishing an even bigger deal that sent Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to the Red Sox for Jesús Delgado, Harvey García, Hanley Ramírez and Aníbal Sánchez.

2. Starting pitching market:

Overall, there’s been little movement this offseason, but the starting pitching market seems to have more momentum than other areas. Multiple reports suggest that demand for rotation help is incredibly high and a few names have come off the board already. The Phillies were able to retain Aaron Nola while the Cardinals signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. There’s a ticking clock on Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he has been posted, while Shota Imanaga is expected to be posted on Monday. It appears the ball is rolling down the hill and picking up some steam, so teams in this area might have to be ready to jump.

3. Jensen in DFA limbo:

The Mariners swung a two-for-one deal yesterday, flipping Eugenio Suárez to Arizona for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala. That left them needing a roster spot, which squeezed out Ryan Jensen. The M’s now have less than a week to work out a trade or try to pass Jensen through waivers. He didn’t have a great season in the minors in 2023 but there are so many open roster spots around the league right now, with many clubs having just freed up space via non-tenders and free agency. The Mets only have 28 players on their 40-man, while Atlanta and San Diego are each at 31. Perhaps that will help Jensen find another landing spot in the next few days.

Three things to watch around the baseball world as we head towards the weekend….

1. Non-tender deadline day:

One of the busiest days of the offseason calendar, today at 7pm CT is the deadline for teams to issue contracts to their arbitration-eligible players.  Several dozen new free agents will be created today as clubs pass on retaining some of their arb-eligibles, and we’re in for a flurry of other related moves — trades to clear roster space, and at least a few contract agreements with players and teams avoiding a future arbitration hearing.

Matt Swartz’s annual projection model for MLB Trade Rumors gives some idea about what these arb-eligible players are set to earn next season, and naturally several of the names on that list have already reached agreements, been released, designated for assignment, or traded in the six weeks since Matt originally published his projections.  For an idea of which players might be a little nervous today, here is MLBTR’s list of potential non-tender candidates.

2. The Braves and White Sox swing a deal:

In case you missed it late last night, the Braves and White Sox got things rolling on non-tender day moves by announcing an intriguing five-for-one trade.  Aaron Bummer is now part of the Atlanta bullpen, while the Sox picked up five players — right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander Jared Shuster, infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake and minor league right-hander Riley Gowens.  In one fell swoop, Chicago added some badly-needed depth to its rotation and middle infield, while moving a reliever who has a notable injury and who posted a 6.79 ERA over 58 1/3 innings in 2023.  That said, Bummer’s advanced metrics (such as a 3.72 SIERA) were far more favorable to the southpaw’s performance, and the Braves clearly wanted to do some roster-pruning in advance of today’s non-tender deadline.  Lopez (projected $3.9MM) and Soroka ($3MM) are both eligible for arbitration, so Atlanta managed to get some value for the two players rather than non-tendering them for nothing.

3. Ohtani’s adorable dog:

If Shohei Ohtani wasn’t enough of a viral sensation already, he gained even more buzz during last night’s announcement of the AL MVP Award.  Winning unanimous MVP honors for the second time in your career is one thing, but when you win the award with your best canine friend by your side for a high-five (high-paw?), the internet is going to take notice.  Somewhere, front office staffers are quickly googling lists of the best dog parks in their cities, searching for any sort of edge in Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes.