The Opener

As you’re eating Thanksgiving leftovers for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball today:

1. Black Friday shopping:

After a quiet Thanksgiving Day, will any teams resume their offseason shopping on Black Friday? It’s not typically a busy day on the baseball calendar, but it’s not as if every front office executive around the league takes the day off. Three years ago, for instance, news broke that the Mets had signed Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar on Black Friday.

If any team is going to be active today, the Blue Jays might be the best bet. After all, Canadian Thanksgiving has long since passed, and the Jays have been active on Black Friday before; they traded for Josh Donaldson on Black Friday in 2014 and signed free agent J.A. Happ on Black Friday in 2015. Toronto has been linked to several of the top free agents this winter, including Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Anthony Santander. Most recently, a report from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet connected the Blue Jays to Alex Bregman and Luis Severino.

2. Hyeseong Kim to be posted?

According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Hyeseong Kim left for Los Angeles earlier today in anticipation of his move from the KBO to MLB. His current team, the Kiwoom Heroes, has not yet posted him, but they are discussing the topic with Kim’s agents at CAA. The three-time KBO Golden Glove winner told Yoo he expects to be posted after Thanksgiving. That suggests he’ll be available to sign with MLB clubs as early as next week. After he is officially posted, he will have 45 days to sign a contract before his posting window closes.

Kim came in at no. 26 on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. And unlike fellow international star Roki Sasaki, Kim is old enough and has the necessary amount of professional experience to sign with any MLB club for as many years and dollars as he can command. Given his plus speed, his defensive talents at second base, his well-regarded bat-to-ball skills, and his youth (he won’t turn 26 until January), the MLBTR staff predicted him to sign a three-year, $24 million deal.

3. Soto sweepstakes continue:

Until he puts pen to paper on a (presumably) record-breaking contract, Juan Soto’s free agency will remain the biggest story of the 2024-25 MLB offseason. The latest update in the Soto saga, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, is that the Yankees increased their offer on Wednesday, although it is not clear what their previous offer was or how much they upped the original number.

More tidbits from Heyman’s reporting include the fact that Soto would prefer a long-term deal as opposed to a shorter contract with a higher AAV. However, he is likely to ask for opt-outs in whatever deal he signs. The Yankees made it clear they are willing to include opt-outs in their offer, but reportedly, so are multiple other suitors. Don’t expect Soto to sign this weekend, but keep an eye out for reports and rumors that will surely continue to trickle out.

On the heels of last night’s surprise signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Snell switches sides in Dodgers-Giants rivalry:

The first top-of-the-market domino fell last night when the Dodgers and left-hander Blake Snell agreed to a five-year, $182MM deal that includes deferred money that drops the net present value of the deal to the $160-165MM range. It’s the southpaw’s latest stop in what has become a tour of California in recent years. After winning the NL Cy Young award for San Diego in 2023, Snell found a disappointing market in free agency and ultimately settled for a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants last winter. That contract, of course, included an opt-out this winter. The lefty dealt with injuries and struggled early in the season but was baseball’s best pitcher from July onward, prompting him to opt out and again test his fortunes.

With a deal for a front-of-the-rotation arm now in the books, what’s next for L.A. this winter? The outfield seems likely to be the next order of business in L.A. with Mookie Betts poised to return to the infield in 2025, leaving Andy Pages as the only full-time outfielder who currently figures to be on the club’s Opening Day roster (although Tommy Edman could very well be the club’s regular center fielder with Betts back in the infield). The club is known to be involved on at least some level in the Juan Soto bidding, and there’s mutual interest in a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez. Reuniting with longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw once again appears to be on the docket, as does upgrading a bullpen that saw right-hander Daniel Hudson and fellow righty Blake Treinen become a free agent earlier this month.

2. Will any other major players sign early?

Between Snell’s deal last night and the pact between Anaheim and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi that broke on Monday morning, the hot stove has picked up in a hurry this week. Thanksgiving could slow the momentum a bit when it arrives tomorrow, but at this point it would hardly be a surprise if a few more significant pieces came off the board before executives arrive in Dallas for the Winter Meetings in the evening on December 8. The deals for Snell and Kikuchi took two of the top six free agent starters off the market, so it stands to reason that the markets for Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Sean Manaea could start to heat up in the coming days as well.

It’s also possible that the market begins to thaw on offense, however. The Soto sweepstakes have dominated the headlines in that part of the market to this point in the winter, and it seems increasingly likely he’ll have landed somewhere at least by the time the Winter Meetings conclude, if not sooner.

3. Will Arenado change hands?

In the early days of the offseason, reports out of St. Louis indicated the Cardinals would be trimming payroll and taking a potential step back this winter as they focus on youth and development for the 2025 season. That led to plenty of rumors regarding the availability of three veteran players: catcher Willson Contreras, right-hander Sonny Gray, and third baseman Nolan Arenado. Contreras and Gray both appear to be reluctant to waive their no-trade clauses and depart St. Louis, with Contreras even poised to move to first base in 2025 to accommodate the Cardinals’ youth movement as catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages stand poised to take on larger roles.

Arenado, however, has at least kept an open mind to the possibility, and the Cards have explored the market for him. Given Arenado’s stellar reputation with the glove and declining numbers at the plate, it would be something of a shock if any team actually wanted him to move across the diamond to first base, but he’s reportedly open to such a move in the right setting. Will a deal come together?

As the early days of the offseason continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Is more movement on the starting pitching market on the way?

News broke of the winter’s first major signing yesterday when the Angels reportedly agreed to a three-year deal with veteran southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi, 33, ranked as the #12 free agent available on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. The southpaw sports a 3.96 ERA (105 ERA+) and 3.78 FIP over the past two seasons, placing him among the many mid-rotation arms in this winter’s class. It would hardly be a surprise if the Kikuchi deal represented the floodgates opening on significant signings. Last year, Aaron Nola re-signed with the Phillies to kick off the starting pitching market and fellow top-tier righty Sonny Gray followed by signing with the Cardinals just one week later.

One potential wrinkle with this year’s class, however, is the relatively small number of pitchers who are similar to Kikuchi in terms of overall effectiveness while remaining unencumbered by a qualifying offer. Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Flaherty are perhaps the closest comparisons overall, though Eovaldi’s age could limit his market while Flaherty’s youth and upside figures to expand his own. Hurlers like Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino compare reasonably with Kikuchi but are attached to draft pick compensation, while Andrew Heaney and Matthew Boyd are unencumbered like Kikuchi but are generally considered to be in the tier below him.

2. Will more teams finalize their coaching staffs?

Yesterday saw the Orioles finalize their coaching staff for 2025, including the announcement of former big league catcher Robinson Chirinos as their new bench coach. The Red Sox finalized their staff late last week, accompanied by the announcement of José Flores as the club’s new first base coach. With December just over the horizon and the free agent market starting to heat up, will more clubs begin to announce finalized coaching staffs for next year in the coming days? Some clubs still appear to be finalizing their coaching hires, as the Mariners are reportedly poised to hire Kevin Seltzer as their next hitting coach while teams like the Brewers, Cubs, and Marlins still have positions that need to be filled.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the non-tender deadline in the rearview mirror and the winter’s first major free agent signing in the books, the 2024-25 offseason has begun to ramp up. Whether you have questions about who your favorite team will be targeting this winter, or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for noon CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

On the heels of a notable early-morning signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Soto beginning to take offers?

The early part of the offseason has been littered with reports about teams meeting with or planning to meet with superstar outfielder Juan Soto. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies were reportedly planning to meet with the slugger as well. Other teams, including the Giants and Royals, are known to have at least checked in on Soto, but the star’s free agent process is seemingly moving past the introductory stage as a report yesterday indicated teams are expected to start making offers this week. Given that Soto’s contract is widely expected to mark a new record in terms of net-present value, the coming stage of the process could quickly weed out teams that were remaining involved in hopes that Soto’s market would prove softer than some of the sky-high numbers thrown around so far. Could things begin to progress quickly for Soto once he begins receiving offers?

2. Non-tendered players enter the free agent pool:

Friday night saw a number of interesting players enter the free agent pool after being non-tendered by their clubs. These players generally occupy the lower tiers of free agency, as teams with substantial interest in them at their arbitration price point could have just traded for them in the days leading up to their non-tender. That said, interesting players such as Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Woodruff, and Cody Bellinger have found themselves in the non-tender pile in recent years. This year’s class lacks that sort of big name talent, but longtime Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan, Angels starter Patrick Sandoval (recovering from Tommy John surgery), and former Mariners infielder Josh Rojas are among the intriguing potential options that are now available to teams. Romano was an All-Star in 2022-23 before injuries ruined his 2024 season. Finnegan was an All-Star this past season but struggled through an awful final two months of the year.

3. What’s next for the Royals following the India trade?

Over the weekend, the Royals and Reds got together on a previously-rumored trade that sent Brady Singer to Cincinnati in exchange for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. Wiemer’s fit in Kansas City as a short-side platoon partner for center fielder Kyle Isbel is a fairly straightforward one, but the acquisition of India is a bit more complicated. India is seemingly poised to play everyday as a potential leadoff option for the club ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, but it remains to be seen how the club’s defensive alignment will shake out now that both India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey are in the mix.

Both India and Massey have played second base almost exclusively in the majors, but India came up as a third baseman and both players could surely handle either left field. Is a position change in the cards for either player headed into Spring Training, or are there more deals on the horizon that could clarify the club’s infield picture? Maikel Garcia and Massey were the club’s primary options on the infield alongside Witt and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino last year. Could Garcia or Massey be relegated to a utility role or even on the move in a future deal to upgrade the club’s questionable outfield mix now that India is in the fold?

With a major offseason deadline now upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. The non-tender deadline is today:

The deadline for clubs to tender contracts to the players in their organization is 7pm CT this evening. The annual deadline never fails to spur activity with arbitration-level players, who typically are at the greatest risk of being non-tendered. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed the process and a wide-ranging list of possible non-tender candidates yesterday, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see a transaction regarding any player on that list at some point before this evening’s deadline. That transaction could be a non-tender, allowing the player to depart for free agency early rather retaining them at an arbitration-level price tag, but it could also come in the form of a trade to another club more willing to pay that arb price or even a pre-tender deal where the sides avoid arbitration at a lower price point to save the club some money and offer the player some certainty.

2. Could the trade market heat up this weekend?

Earlier this week, the Cubs swung a pair of trades on the same day. They acquired right-hander Eli Morgan, who is slated to be eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this winter, from the Guardians in exchange for outfield prospect Alfonsin Rosario. They also acquired recently DFA’d catcher Matt Thaiss in a cash deal with the Angels. It’s likely that we’ll see an uptick of trades similar to both of these deals over the coming days.

With the arrival of the non-tender deadline today, several arb-eligible players on the bubble of being non-tendered get moved today, either off teams looking to cut costs to teams with budget space available, or from a team that would otherwise non-tender a player to one interested in offering him an arb-level contract. Aside from that, we saw a slew of players DFA’d in advance of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline earlier this week. Any number of them could be flipped to another club via trade or waivers. That could lead to a handful of minor trades similar to the Thaiss deal, where a club adds a player for a typically relatively minor return, and there will also surely be plenty of waiver activity (and subsequent DFAs) in the days ahead.

3. Who else will meet with Snell?

Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell reportedly met with both the Red Sox and Dodgers recently, giving a glimpse into the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested yesterday that both the Blue Jays and Orioles could soon set up meetings with Snell, adding that the left-hander is aiming for a shorter stay on the free agent market this time around after waiting until March 19 to sign last winter.

It seems fair to presume that the Yankees (who had interest last offseason) and Mets (who saw 60% of their rotation reach free agency) could also sit down with the lefty. Snell could potentially hold broader appeal than fellow free agent aces Corbin Burnes and Max Fried due both to his lack of a qualifying offer and the fact that his age could tamp down the length of his contract (at the likely trade-off of a premium annual value). Might that create a few surprise suitors who don’t typically shop in the deep end of the free-agent pool?

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. MVP winners to be announced:

Award season is set to wrap up at 5pm CT this evening with the unveiling of MVP results in both leagues. There isn’t much suspense regarding the winner in either league, as the AL saw Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge establish himself as a heavy favorite with an eye-popping season that edged out his 2022 campaign (when he set a new AL record for home runs in a season) in both wRC+ (218) and fWAR (11.2). Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and top-of-the-class free agent Juan Soto had incredible seasons of their own to earn their spots as finalists, but Judge’s .322/.458/.701 slash, 58 home runs, 122 runs scored and 144 runs batted in will be nearly impossible to overcome.

Meanwhile, the NL field was regarded as crowded for most of the season, but Shohei Ohtani began to pull away from the pack late in the year as he became the first player in history to post a 50-50 season and ultimately finished with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases —  all while hitting .310/.390/.646. Assuming Ohtani wins over fellow finalists Francisco Lindor and Ketel Marte (whose case was dinged by a late stint on the injured list), he’ll become the first full-time DH to win the award in MLB history.

2. Are more pre-tender deals on the horizon?

With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, the A’s and first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown got a head start on the type of deal that will surely be seen frequently all across baseball over the next day and a half by avoiding arbitration. “Pre-tender” deals like these often see the player sign at a figure lower than their expected value in arbitration in order to secure a roster spot, knowing the alternative is a non-tender into a crowded free agent pool. Brown, who was outrighted off the A’s roster in June but hit his way back to the majors, agreed to a one-year, $2.7MM deal that fell well shy of the $3.8MM salary projected in MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s algorithm. Several more deals along these lines could unfold between now and tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

3. Which players are non-tender candidates this year?

Ahead of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, MLBTR will be publishing a list of potential non-tender candidates later today. While it certainly won’t be the case that every player listed gets non-tendered (and it’s quite unlikely that even most of them will), the list features a broad group of plausible candidates who could be non-tendered given their projected arbitration price and a confluence of factors including their expected production, injury situation, and/or the financial situation of their team. Some players from the list could also look to sign a pre-tender deal with their team or even be traded in advance of the deadline. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a selection of arb-eligible players who could be trade candidates in the run-up to tomorrow’s deadline in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

On the heels of yesterday’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. Cy Young Award winners announced:

At 5PM CT, the winners of the Cy Young Award in each league are scheduled to be announced. In the American League, Tarik Skubal is considered the overwhelming favorite after the Tigers lefty led the majors with 228 strikeouts while posting a sterling 2.39 ERA in 192 innings of work. The other finalists in the AL are Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who delivered a historic season out of the bullpen where he pitched to a microscopic 0.61 ERA while racking up 47 saves in 74 1/3 innings of work, and Royals right-hander Seth Lugo, who led the majors with 33 starts and posted a 3.00 ERA in 206 1/3 innings of work.

Meanwhile, the National League favorite is Braves southpaw Chris Sale. The veteran entered the year with seven career trips to the All-Star game under his belt but had fallen off the radar over the past half decade due to injuries. His first season in Atlanta may be the very best of his illustrious career, however, as he won the NL Triple Crown with an MLB-leading 2.38 ERA (2.09 FIP) in 177 2/3 innings of work while going 18-3 and striking out 225 batters (32.1 K%). Alongside Sale are Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler, who posted a 2.57 ERA in 200 innings of work with a 3.13 FIP, and Pirates youngster Paul Skenes, who already captured the NL Rookie of the Year Award following a dominant season where he pitched to a 1.96 ERA with a 33.1% strikeout rate but was limited to just 133 innings of work.

2. Will recent DFAs receive trade interest?

A number of interesting players were squeezed off their clubs’ 40-man roster by yesterday’s deadline, and teams will have five days to survey the league for trade interest before they’re forced to place those players on waivers and risk losing them for nothing. Among the notable players of interest to clubs could be former top outfield prospects Brennen Davis of the Cubs and George Valera of the Guardians, both of whom have looked impressive at Triple-A in the past but have dealt with a number of injuries that have thrown them off course. Jordyn Adams, who was the Angels’ first-round pick in 2018, is also available as a youngster who has a bit less prospect pedigree but has already gotten a taste of big league action.

Meanwhile, interesting relief options such as Adbert Alzolay, Richard Lovelady, and Bryan Mata all lost their spots, though each comes with his own warts. Lovelady found some success with the Rays this year but has generally struggled to produce at the big league level throughout his career. Mata has yet to make his big league debut due to a long stretch of injury woes. Alzolay underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and figures to miss most of the 2025 campaign, but he was excellent for the Cubs in 2023 (2.67 ERA, 22 saves, 26.5 K%, 5.1 BB% in 64 innings).

3. MLBTR Chat today:

A busy day full of deadlines and transactions shook loose a pair of trades yesterday, and the even more significant non-tender deadline is due up later this week. Yesterday’s whirlwind delayed our usual weekday chat somewhat, but anyone with questions regarding Friday’s deadline or their favorite club’s plans for the offseason is in luck nonetheless as MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat with readers today at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join the chat when it begins, or read the transcript afterwards.

On a particularly busy day on the offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Rule 5 deadline day:

One of the under-the-radar busiest transactional days of the baseball year, this is the final day for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft (which takes place on December 11).  Plenty of clubs will be facing some tricky decisions on which eligible prospects will be protected from the R5 with roster spots, and creating that roster space will result in some DFAs, releases, or perhaps trades of players already taking up room on the 40-man.

Teams have until 5pm CT today to finalize their rosters, so expect a pretty big flurry of moves to come later this afternoon.  Eligible players who aren’t added to the 40-man could find themselves changing organizations on December 11, and there’s risk for teams in potentially losing an interesting prospect for virtually nothing.

2. Qualifying offer decisions due:

The 13 players who received qualifying offers from their teams have until 3pm CT to officially decide whether or not to accept or reject the one-year, $21.05MM contract.  Nick Martinez has already agreed to accept his QO and remain with the Reds, but it appears that he’ll be the only member of the 13-player class to take the deal.  As per recent reports, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Nick Pivetta are all likely to reject the qualifying offers in search of longer-term contracts in free agency.  While there was perhaps a bit of question as to whether any of those pitchers could take the one-year payday, there is zero doubt that the other nine free agents issued QOs (Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Fried, Anthony Santander, Juan Soto, and Christian Walker) will reject the offer and test the open market.

If a player turns down the qualifying offer, there are consequences for both his former team and his next team, assuming the player signs elsewhere.  The free agent’s former team will receive a compensatory pick in the 2025 draft, with the placement of that pick depending on the team’s status as a revenue-sharing team or luxury-tax payor.  Likewise, clubs that sign a qualified free agent face a penalty in the form of surrendering money from the international draft pool or giving up at least one draft pick.  While the QO penalty won’t stop a team from signing a superstar like Soto, we’ve seen in the past how rejecting a qualifying offer can effect offers for free agents who aren’t quite at the top of the market, so it will be interesting to see which (if any) of this year’s class could be impacted.

3. Manager Of The Year announced:

Each league will announce the winner of the Manager of the Year awards tonight at 5pm CT.  All three American League finalists come from the AL Central, as the Guardians’ Stephen Vogt, the Royals’ Matt Quatraro, and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch all led their teams from losing records in 2023 to playoff appearances in 2024.  The improvement was especially pronounced in Kansas City, after Quatraro lost 106 games in his first season as the Royals’ skipper.  Hinch led a big turn-around just within the 2024 campaign itself, as Detroit went from also-rans to an ALDS berth after going 31-13 over its last 44 regular-season games.  Vogt had big shoes to fill in replacing Terry Francona in Cleveland, but Vogt made an immediate impact as the Guards won the AL Central and then advanced all the way to the ALCS.

Over in the National League, Padres skipper Mike Shildt is looking to become a two-time winner of the award, as he previously won the MOY in his previous job as the Cardinals’ manager in 2019.  In his first season in San Diego, Shildt brought the Padres to a 93-win performance and then to the NLDS, where the club lost a heartbreaking five-game series against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers.  Carlos Mendoza took the Mets a step further to the NLCS in his first year as a big league manager, as the Mets won 89 games and narrowly secured a wild card berth in what was initially expected to be something of a rebuild year for the organization.  Expectations were also somewhat limited for the Brewers in the wake of Burnes being traded, Brandon Woodruff’s injury, and Craig Counsell’s departure, yet Pat Murphy kept the ship on course in his first year as Milwaukee’s manager.  The longtime Brewers bench coach stepped into the big chair and immediately led the Crew to another NL Central crown.

On the heels of an early-morning signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Rookie of the Year announced:

The four major BBWAA awards are being announced this week, and today things kick off with the Rookie of the Year announcement. In the NL, Pirates righty Paul Skenes and Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill are the leading contenders, with Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio rounding out the finalists in one of the stronger rookie classes in recent memory. Meanwhile, in the AL, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is generally considered to be a slight favorite over Yankees right-hander Luis Gil and Yankees catcher Austin Wells for the award. The winners are set to be announced at 5pm CT this evening.

Today’s awards come with additional intrigue beyond the hardware itself, as well. Skenes did not receive a full year of service time in 2024 due to his debut being held off until mid-May, but he’ll earn that full year of MLB service if/when he finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Meanwhile, the Padres, Orioles, and Yankees have a chance to earn Prospect Promotion Incentive picks. The Padres will be awarded a PPI pick if Merrill wins the NL award this evening, while the Orioles or Yankees would be awarded a pick if Cowser or Wells respectively win in the AL. Skenes, Gil, and Chourio are all unable to earn their clubs PPI picks for a variety of reasons: Skenes wasn’t rostered long enough to garner a full year of MLB service as previously mentioned, while Gil was not featured on two qualifying top 100 prospects lists and Chourio signed a pre-debut extension with the Brewers, rendering him ineligible for a pick.

2. QO Decisions looming:

The deadline for players to accept the Qualifying Offer is tomorrow, and this weekend saw a pair of reports regarding players on the bubble of the QO decision: Reds right-hander Nick Martinez is expected to accept the one-year offer, while Mets righty Luis Severino is expected to join Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta in rejecting the offer. That trio of players have generally been regarded as the three most likely to accept a QO among the players to whom it was extended. Obviously, top-of-the-market players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are certain to reject the QO as they search for nine-figure contracts in free agency, but could a mid-level free agent such as Christian Walker or Sean Manaea surprise the baseball world and accept?

Even if all the remaining players intend to reject their QO and test free agency, the looming deadline could serve as a springboard for negotiations on a multi-year deal, either with their current club or a new one. Left-hander Tyler Anderson and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the recent examples of players who signed multi-year deals after being tagged with the QO but before the deadline to accept or reject it.

3. Soto to meet with the Yankees:

Speaking of Soto, the market’s most sought-after free agent met with a contingent from the Mets led by owner Steve Cohen over the weekend. That comes on the heels of Soto reportedly meeting with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes that Soto is scheduled to meet with the incumbent Yankees, where the reigning AL champs are set to make their pitch to Soto and agent Scott Boras on why he should stay in the Bronx alongside fellow outfield star Aaron Judge. These early meetings between Soto and clubs have seemingly been largely introductory in nature without formal offers being made or figures exchanged, though that may not be the case for the Yankees given the fact that Soto is already plenty familiar with the organization. Will today’s meeting get the market for the winter’s biggest free agent moving?

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world this weekend:

1. Deals to avoid arbitration:

The non-tender deadline is one week from today, and last night saw the first player of the winter look to avoid the arbitration process entirely and sign with his club early. In this case, the Angels avoided arbitration with recently-acquired utilityman Scott Kingery, though the financial details of that deal are not yet known. The days leading up to the non-tender deadline are typically rife with similar deals signed by players on the non-tender bubble, often referred to as pre-tender deals. Mets DH DJ Stewart and Rockies southpaw Jalen Beeks were among the players who signed such agreements a year ago. Pre-tender deals often fall shy of expectations/projections, as the alternative to accepting that lower salary is typically a non-tender.

2. 40-man roster moves looming:

Even sooner than the non-tender deadline is the deadline for teams to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, which is scheduled for this coming Tuesday at 5pm CT. While many teams have a handful of 40-man roster spots available for prospects that need protection, that’s not true for every club, and even some clubs with roster space available will have more prospects to protect than openings. Most clubs will wait until the final hours leading into the deadline to announce these moves, but some could get a jump on clearing roster space this weekend.

The Red Sox stand out as one particularly interesting example of a club in need of roster space. Not only do they have a full 40-man roster, but they also have a player in need of protection who isn’t a typical prospect: right-hander Michael Fulmer, who signed with the club on a two-year minor league deal last winter while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. If not added onto the club’s 40-man roster by Tuesday, Fulmer will be a rare established big leaguer available in the Rule 5 draft and for that reason would stand a strong chance of getting selected away from Boston during the Winter Meetings next month.

3. The Hernandez market:

Juan Soto has understandably dominated headlines for major free agent hitters this offseason, particularly with him taking individual meetings with interested teams over the course of the past week. Many top-tier free agents will want to wait for Soto’s decision before signing, as the teams that miss on Soto will be motivated to pursue alternatives more aggressively. One possible exception? Teoscar Hernandez, who just won his third career Silver Slugger Award. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested earlier this week that Hernandez may not wait for Soto to sign and could be one of the first big-name free agents off the board this winter.

Hernandez sat on the market for more than two months last offseason awaiting a three-year offer that never materialized. He eventually signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers in January. Given that lengthy stay on last year’s market, it’s understandable that he’d prefer a quicker turnaround this winter. The Dodgers, Orioles and Red Sox have all been connected to Hernandez thus far. He slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 homers and tied a career-high 12 steals with L.A. in the regular season, then went on to hit .250/.352/.417 with three home runs during the Dodgers’ postseason run to a 2024 World Series crown.