The Opener

As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Rule 5 Draft today:

Baseball’s annual Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2020 and college draft picks signed in 2021 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Twins, Orioles, Braves, Rays, and Diamondbacks would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, as free agent outfielder Anthony Santander famously did following his selection in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. 2025’s draft saw White Sox right-hander Shane Smith and Marlins catcher Liam Hicks stick with the clubs that drafted them on the 26-man roster through the entire year, while right-hander Mike Vasil was claimed off waivers by the White Sox and remained in Chicago for the whole year as well. Smith, in particular, is noteworthy for earning an All-Star appearance and down-ballot consideration in AL Rookie of the Year voting thanks to his 3.81 ERA in 29 starts for Chicago. Will a similarly valuable diamond in the rough be unearthed today?

2. Could the Pirates pivot to Polanco?

The Pirates were among the teams most aggressive in pursuing slugger Kyle Schwarber, but after he turned down the club’s four-year, $120MM offer they could still look to reallocate at least some of those resources to other pursuits in their efforts to upgrade the offense. Pittsburgh has been connected to infielder Jorge Polanco in the past, and Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reported yesterday that the Pirates were expected to put an offer on the table for the switch hitter’s services soon. Will Polanco be the big free agent fish Ben Cherington’s front office has been working to land, or will they end up looking elsewhere for offensive talent to support Paul Skenes and the rest of their excellent rotation?

3. Relief market buzzing:

The market for relievers has been the busiest part of free agency so far this winter, and yesterday was no exception as Edwin Diaz landed with the Dodgers on a three-year agreement. Diaz wasn’t the only significant name to come off the market yesterday either, as the Pirates signed southpaw Gregory Soto to a one-year deal and the Tigers re-upped with Kyle Finnegan on a two-year pact. That takes three more late-inning arms off the market and leaves the teams still in the market for top relievers running low on options. Robert Suarez is now the best option on the market and is drawing interest from a pair of new suitors, but he’s hardly the only interesting option available. Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, Tyler Rogers, Seranthony Dominguez, and Pete Fairbanks are all also still available after landing on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Who will be the next to sign?

Three things we’ll be keeping an eye on as the Winter Meetings continue in Orlando…

1. The Schwarber Watch continues

While most believe Kyle Schwarber will eventually re-sign with the Phillies, the veteran slugger continues to draw tons of interest from around the league.  The Mets are the latest team linked to Schwarber’s market, joining the Phillies and such other clubs as the Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Pirates (who have made a four-year offer), and Reds (Schwarber’s hometown team).  ESPN’s Buster Olney, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, and other pundits have heard that Schwarber might be the first major position-player free agent to decide on a new team, so if Schwarber makes his choice during the Winter Meetings, that could open up more movement for other players.

2. Polar warning in Orlando

Pete Alonso will be among the free agents there in person at the Winter Meetings, taking the trip up from his Tampa-area home to meet with some of his suitors face to face.  The Mets are naturally familiar enough with Alonso that they won’t be meeting with their longtime slugger, but the Orioles and Red Sox are two of the clubs expected to sit down with Alonso to discuss a possible contract.  Given the overlap in their list of suitors, Alonso is one of the free agents who might particularly benefit if Schwarber signs fairly quickly, as plenty of hitting-needy teams may logically turn to Alonso as a power source.

3. Draft Lottery takes place

The fourth MLB Draft Lottery will be held today at 4:30PM CT, and 15 non-playoff teams are eligible to win a top-six selection in the 2026 draft.  (The 119-loss Rockies aren’t eligible because they won a lottery picks in each of the previous two drafts, and the Nationals and Angels aren’t eligible because teams that pay revenue-sharing funds can’t receive lottery picks in consecutive drafts.)

This leaves the White Sox with the best odds (27.73%) of landing the first overall pick, though as we’ve seen in the first three years of the draft lottery’s existence, the numbers don’t always work out as the chalk would suggest.  The Pirates were one of three teams with an equal share of the top odds when they won the 2022 lottery (and the chance to draft Paul Skenes in 2023), but the Guardians had only a two percent chance of winning when they got lucky in the 2023 lottery, and the Nationals had just the fourth-highest odds when they won last year’s lottery.  Beyond just the 1-1 pick, the lottery has led to plenty of shakeups within the top six, so teams with winning records like the Astros, Mets, or Royals still have an outside shot at a high first-round pick.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Winter Meetings Underway:

Players, agents, and executives alike arrived in Orlando last night for this year’s Winter Meetings, which officially kick off today and run through this coming Thursday. Even before the meetings began, there was significant movement around the league. The big news of this weekend was a trade between the Mariners and Nationals that saw top prospect Harry Ford head to D.C. in exchange for ground balling lefty Jose A. Ferrer. Many more trades and transactions figure to follow over the coming days, and last year’s Winter Meetings famously kicked off with a record-shattering contract between Juan Soto and the Mets. What will the biggest stories of this year’s meetings be? Be sure to check in with MLBTR throughout the coming days to hear about all the latest news!

2. Schwarber gets a big offer… from the Pirates?

The market for slugging DH Kyle Schwarber has been among the most active for any position player this offseason, and last night word broke that he’s received at least one significant offer. That four-year offer is expected to be worth more than $100MM, and comes from an unusual place: Pittsburgh. Pirates brass have frequently indicated this winter that they have more resources at their disposal than usual, but a nine-figure deal for Schwarber would be a massive departure from the franchise’s previous comfort zone; they’ve never signed a free agent to a guarantee of $40MM in the past. Schwarber is also known to be pursued by the incumbent Phillies as well as the Reds, Red Sox, Giants, and Orioles. With one offer already on the table, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the slugger’s market move quickly over the coming days.

3. Teams keeping an eye on Marte:

While the Diamondbacks have made clear that they don’t necessarily plan on trading Ketel Marte, that hasn’t stopped various teams from keeping an eye on the switch hitting All-Star. The 32-year-old would immediately become the best hitter available on the trade market if Arizona were to shop him, and there’s a number of teams already checking in. Yesterday, it was reported that the Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Pirates, and Mariners have all been keeping an eye on Marte as a possible addition to their respective lineups. In a market where Bo Bichette is the only star-level middle infielder available via free agency, Marte figures to be especially attractive to teams in need of infield talent. That could spur the Diamondbacks to consider a trade, particularly as their payroll has reached record levels in recent years and their rotation has been depleted by the departures of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (not to mention Tommy John surgery for Corbin Burnes).

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on headed into the weekend:

1. Winter Meetings to begin:

The Winter Meetings are set to begin next week, which means on Sunday players, agents, and executives alike from around the game will begin flocking to Orlando. There’s been plenty of trade and free agent activity already. Impact free agents like Devin Williams and Dylan Cease have already signed, and the trade market has been buzzing all winter long with deals like the Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien swap, Boston’s acquisition of Sonny Gray, and last night’s five-player deal between the Pirates and Red Sox. The activity should only ratchet up from here leading up to and throughout the meetings, with plenty of exciting moves to come in the next few days. Be sure to stay tuned in to MLBTR for all the latest rumors and deals!

2. Red Sox loading up on pitching:

Yesterday’s aforementioned trade saw Boston ship top outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia (along with pitching prospect Jesus Travieso) to Pittsburgh for a package consisting of right-hander Johan Oviedo, minor league lefty Tyler Samaniego, and catching prospect Adonys Guzman. The deal added another viable starter to a Red Sox club that was already deep in rotation candidates. Oviedo likely slots in towards the back of the club’s rotation alongside Patrick Sandoval, with Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Brayan Bello in the first three slots and younger pieces like Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, and Payton Tolle serving as depth. Even that doesn’t factor in Kutter Crawford, who missed the 2025 season due to injury but was a valuable rotation piece as recently as 2024. The Red Sox figure to remain quite active in the offseason markets headed into next week’s Winter Meetings.

3. Eras Committee voting results to be revealed:

One of the first pieces of the Winter Meetings schedule is also one of its most important, as a committee of former players, executives, and media members will convene to vote on the Hall of Fame candidacies of this year’s slate of Eras Committee nominees. This year’s nominees are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Valenzuela. At least 12 votes from the committee’s 16 members are needed to be inducted into Cooperstown, and the results of that vote will be revealed at 6:30pm CT this coming Sunday on MLB Network.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Movement in Tucker’s market?

It’s been a fairly active week on the free agent market, but things have mostly been quiet surrounding star outfielder Kyle Tucker. That changed yesterday, however, when a report emerged that Tucker had visited the Blue Jays’ spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida. It’s the first known meeting between the winter’s top free agent and a team, and the news continues a trend of Toronto being by far the most aggressive team in baseball to this point in the offseason. Adding Dylan Cease to the rotation and Kyle Tucker to the lineup would be enough for a banner offseason by itself, to say nothing of the Jays’ deal with Cody Ponce or their reported pursuits of players like Bo Bichette and Pete Fairbanks, who are still on the market.

Does Tucker have other in-person visits lined up? Are the Jays preparing a formal offer? More details on his market could emerge in the near future.

2. Rays 40-man roster move incoming:

The Rays reached an agreement with outfielder Cedric Mullins on a one-year deal yesterday, adding to an outfield that was in desperate need of reinforcements beyond re-signing Jake Fraley shortly after his non-tender. Tampa Bay will need to clear a spot on their 40-man roster to accommodate Mullins. The most common way to accomplish that is simply by designating a player for assignment, but it’s also possible the Rays could look to work out a trade that clears 40-man roster space instead. Tampa Bay is hardly a stranger to the trade market, and players on the roster like Brandon Lowe are already garnering attention as potential trade pieces this winter.

3. Other signings to be made official:

Mullins isn’t the only reported deal that has yet to be made official. Deals between the Dodgers and Miguel Rojas, the Blue Jays and Cody Ponce, the White Sox and Anthony Kay, as well as the Reds and Emilio Pagan are all still pending physicals and will need to be formalized in the coming days. That’s in addition to the deal between the Astros and Ryan Weiss, which has still yet to be made official and (unlike Rojas, Ponce, Kay, and Pagan) will require a 40-man roster move on the part of Houston. With the Winter Meetings fast approaching, signings and the subsequently required 40-man roster maintenance necessary to accommodate those fresh deals will surely continue to pile up.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Astros 40-man roster move incoming:

The Astros are reportedly signing right-hander Ryan Weiss to a major league deal, bringing him over from the Korea Baseball Organization. The Astros have a full 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a move in order to accommodate their new signing. The most common way to accomplish that is simply by designating a player for assignment, but it’s also possible Houston could look to work out a trade that clears 40-man roster space instead. That could be a minor trade of a low-level player on the 40-man, but a bigger deal is also possible given that Houston is reportedly receiving interest in outfielders Jake Meyers and Jesus Sanchez on the trade market.

2. Fairbanks next to move?

Former Rays right-hander Pete Fairbanks was a somewhat unexpected addition to this year’s free agent market after the Rays declined their $11MM club option on his services for the 2026 season. He’s garnered plenty of interest in the weeks since then, with the Tigers, Marlins, and Blue Jays among a number of teams known to be involved in his market on at least some level. The relief market has gotten moving faster than the rest of this winter’s free agent class, with names such as Raisel Iglesias, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton having already come off the board on notable contracts. Could Fairbanks be the next domino to fall?

3. What’s next for the Jays?

The Blue Jays reportedly reached an agreement with right-hander Cody Ponce yesterday, and in doing so added a second starter to a rotation that already brought in Dylan Cease earlier this winter. With Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Jose Berrios already in place from last year plus top prospect Trey Yesavage and depth options like Eric Lauer, Yariel Rodriguez, and Bowden Francis, the addition of Ponce creates a glut of rotation options. Perhaps a pivot to the trade market could make some sense to leverage that depth, though it’s also worth noting that star shortstop Bo Bichette remains unsigned and the Jays, as previously mentioned, remain involved in the market for Fairbanks and other high-end relief arms.

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. Relief market buzzing:

Last night saw the Mets sign right-hander Devin Williams to a three-year, $51MM deal (with $15MM in deferrals). It’s the latest in a string of relief signings that also includes deals for Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, and Phil Maton. With three impact closers already off the board and a number of teams (including the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Marlins) known to be looking for relief help this winter, that can only be good news for the remaining high-leverage relief arms on the market. Edwin Diaz remains at the front of the pack, with Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks, Emilio Pagan, and Kyle Finnegan among the many noteworthy bullpen arms still available on the market.

2. Mets land a big fish:

Last night’s Williams deal provides cover for the Mets if Diaz winds up signing elsewhere, though they’re also not ruling out a reunion with their star ninth-inning man. Regardless of what happens with Diaz, there’s plenty more work to be done for the Mets this winter. Pete Alonso needs to be re-signed or replaced on the infield, there are multiple holes in the outfield, and trade candidacies for players like Jeff McNeil and Kodai Senga have yet to be resolved. And that’s all before considering the Mets’ well-known desire to improve the front of their rotation this winter. It’s already been a busy offseason in Queens — the Mets also swapped out Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien — but president of baseball operations David Stearns shows no signs of slowing down yet.

3. MLBTR chat today:

The offseason is underway, and the hot stove is starting to sizzle. Five of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed so far (in addition to the four who accepted qualifying offers), and the trade market has started buzzing early as Taylor Ward, Grayson Rodriguez, Marcus Semien, and Brandon Nimmo have all changed hands in the first few weeks of the offseason. Whether your team is looking to load up for a playoff run next year or rebuild for the future, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 11am CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

As the calendar flips to December here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Imai heading stateside:

Right-hander Tatsuya Imai is coming over from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB this winter, and in doing so he’s made himself one of the top free agent starters available. The righty will be just 28 years old next season and is coming off a banner year in Japan, where he pitched to a 1.92 ERA across 163 2/3 innings of work. His combination of youth and a high-octane fastball should make him enticing to the majority of clubs hunting for rotation help this winter, and (as reported by Francys Romero of BeisbolFR) Imai is expected to come to the United States in the first few days of December to meet with MLB teams. An early-December deal can’t be entirely ruled out, though many NPB players wait until closer to the end of their posting window to make a decision; Imai’s posting window began on Nov. 19 and runs through Jan. 2.

2. What’s next for the Orioles after their first splash?

The Orioles will be without Felix Bautista next year, and as a result entered the offseason with a hole at the back of their bullpen. Baltimore wasted little time filling that vacancy, inking right-hander Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28MM deal that gives Helsley an opt-out opportunity after the 2026 season. Helsley will slide into the closer role with his new club, joining righty Andrew Kittredge and lefty Keegan Akin as late-inning options. Helsley and outfielder Taylor Ward are both notable additions to the Orioles’ roster, but their biggest need remains unaddressed. The club floundered last year without Corbin Burnes leading the rotation, and at least one front-end arm to pair with Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers seems necessary if the O’s hope to get back into contention in 2026.

3. Red Sox facing a tight budget?

The Red Sox have been connected to a lot of free agency’s top bats after strengthening the rotation with their Sonny Gray acquisition. Reports have indicated that the club is not only in on the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman but also interested in signing multiple well-regarded free agent bats. Despite all of that buzz, however, financial realities could make that difficult. Reporting over the weekend suggests that the team might not be willing to spend much farther than the first luxury tax threshold this winter, which would leave them with a roughly similar payroll to 2025. Barring a change of heart from ownership, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will either need to use the trade market to add some lower-cost bats and/or shed some salary via trade. Boston is currently about $21MM shy of the first tax threshold, per RosterResource.

As you pick through the Thanksgiving leftovers, here are a few things to monitor on Friday…

1. Financial constraints in Milwaukee

Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal, and Katie Woo of The Athletic dropped a report yesterday about Milwaukee’s payroll concerns heading into next season. The trio wondered if financial challenges could lead to a Freddy Peralta deal. The right-hander is in the final year of his contract and is slated to make $8MM next season. Brandon Woodruff’s acceptance of the qualifying offer gives the Brewers another option in the rotation if they move Peralta, though both Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold described Woodruff’s return and a potential Peralta trade as “independent decisions.” There have been several instances of Milwaukee trading star players before they hit free agency, including  Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, and Devin Williams.

2. Red Sox eyeing Alonso, Okamoto

We knew Boston was looking for more thump in the middle of the order, as chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said as much earlier this month. Jon Heyman of the New York Post linked the team to Pete Alonso and Kazuma Okamoto on Thursday. Alonso has been one of the premier home run hitters in the league since his 2019 debut, leaving the yard at least 34 times in each full season of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign). Alonso signed a two-year deal to return to the Mets last offseason. He opted out of the second year of the pact in early November. Okamoto has delivered solid power contributions in the NPB since 2018. The Yomiuri Giants posted him last week. The addition of either Alonso or Okamoto, who are both corner infielders, could make a Triston Casas trade more likely.

3. Orioles looking at top starters

Heyman also reported that Baltimore is keeping tabs on Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai at the highest tier of the free agent starting pitching market. Dylan Cease was also on the list, but he signed with AL East rival Toronto. Heyman mentioned Michael King and Zac Gallen as fallback options for the Orioles. The club sent Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward, further thinning a starting rotation that already had depth concerns. Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish will headline the staff heading into 2026, but beyond innings-eater Dean Kremer, the unit has plenty of question marks. Some kind of addition, even in the Gallen range, seems like a decent possibility.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

Happy Thanksgiving to MLBTR’s readers in the United States, and for our non-American readers….uh, happy Thursday?  Here are three things we’re keeping an eye on besides the turkey in the oven….

1. Blue Jays land Dylan Cease:

The reigning AL champs made the priciest free agent signing in team history yesterday, as reports indicated that Toronto inked Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM contract.  The contract will be finalized once Cease passes a physical, and while it’s just a matter of time before we get the official announcement, it’s possible things could be delayed a few days simply due to the Thanksgiving weekend.  As it stands, the Jays seem to have already finished up their rotation shopping pretty early in the offseason, between the Cease signing and Shane Bieber’s surprising decision to exercise his player option to remain in Toronto through the 2026 campaign.  With the starting pitching mix potentially settled already, the Blue Jays can now turn their attention to re-signing Bo Bichette or adding another big bat to their lineup.  For the rest of the league, Cease’s decision removes a top-tier arm from the board, so pitching-needy teams will have to turn their attention to other starters in free agency or on the trade market.

2. Rockies re-introduce Warren Schaeffer:

After operating as Colorado’s interim manager for most of the 2025 season, Warren Schaeffer was named the club’s new full-time skipper.  There hadn’t been much news about the Rockies’ managerial search because, in essence, one didn’t happen, as president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta explained at a press conference yesterday.  DePodesta told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that he informally looked into some other candidates but “ultimately, I didn’t feel the need to interview anybody else,” as “I would say, even a week in….it became pretty clear to me that [Schaeffer] was a good direction to go.”  This won’t exactly calm the fears of Rockies worried that the team is still going to be operating in an insular fashion, even though DePodestra is an entirely fresh face as the new head of the front office.  Still, Schaeffer received praise for how he handled stepping into a rough situation last season, and his 36-86 record is obviously far more a reflection on Colorado’s dismal roster than on Schaeffer’s work in his first season as a big league manager.

3. The Anthony Rendon era nears an end in Anaheim:

Anthony Rendon’s MLB career may be officially over after 12 seasons, as the oft-injured third baseman is reportedly discussing a buyout plan with the Angels heading into the final year of his contract.  Presumably the $38MM owed to Rendon in 2026 would instead be paid out in deferred fashion over several years, giving the Angels some more short-term spending ability.  Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal signed in December 2019 will go down as a complete bust, as Rendon ended up playing in only 257 games over the life of the contract due to a wide variety of injuries, including a hip surgery that cost him the entire 2025 season.