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Evan Carter Unlikely To Play Again During 2024 Season

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Rangers rookie outfielder Evan Carter has probably played his last game of the season, as GM Chris Young told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that the team doesn’t expect Carter to return from the injured list before the regular-season schedule wraps up.  A postseason return might be possible, but not probable given the long-term nature of Carter’s injury.  Carter has missed over two months due to a lumbar strain in his back, and the Rangers officially moved him to the 60-man IL yesterday in order to create some space on the 40-man roster.

“His back continues to give him a little bit of trouble when he ramps up his hitting progression,” Young said.  “We’ve seen multiple specialists in the past week and determined that he is going to need a more lengthy time period to rest his back without rotational activities.  So, I’m not overly optimistic that we’re going to see Evan again in the regular season.  It’s just going to take some time and we want to protect him.  He is a huge part of our future.”

It seemed like Carter was making decent progress earlier this month and was starting to take part in more baseball-related activities in preparation for a minor league rehab assignment.  However, Texas manager Bruce Bochy explained to media yesterday that Carter had been shut down due to continued discomfort in his back, and that extended period now looks like it will bring Carter’s 2024 campaign to an end.  Neither Young or Bochy mentioned the possibility of a surgery to address the issue, so it seems as though Carter will try to go on the mend with just rest and recovery.

So much has already happened in Carter’s young career that it is easy to forget that he doesn’t turn 22 until next month, and he made his Major League debut less than 11 months ago.  Carter was one of baseball’s more highly-touted prospects at the time of his debut, yet he exceeded all expectations by hitting .306/.413/.645 in his first 75 plate appearances in the regular season, and followed that up with a .300/.417/.500 slash line in 72 PA in the postseason.

This starring role in the Rangers’ World Series run made Carter a heavy favorite for AL Rookie of the Year honors heading into 2024, but he hit only .188/.272/.361 over 162 PA this season.  The back problem was obviously a factor in that lack of production, and as Grant noted, Carter also missed a lot of the 2021 minor league season with a stress fracture in his back.  Since Carter recovered from that prior injury in good form, there’s hope he can similarly rebound in 2025, yet two significant back problems in four years is certainly a bigger-picture cause for concern.

Reds To Acquire Davis Wendzel From Rangers

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The Rangers traded infielder Davis Wendzel to the Reds for cash considerations, reports Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). The infielder had been designated for assignment by the Rangers yesterday.

Wendzel, 27, was selected with the 41st overall pick back in 2019. As a prospect, he was considered to have a strong hit tool but questionable power. Moving up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League seemed to help him put balls over the fence. In 2022, he got into 85 games in that league and hit 17 home runs. Last year, another 124 games led to another 30 homers.

This year, he finally got up to the majors but didn’t do much in his first taste of the show, with a line of .128/.163/.234 through his first 49 plate appearances. But he also added another six home runs in 34 more Triple-A contests this year.

Though he got squeezed off the roster in Texas, it’s understandable why the Reds were interested. Between last year and this year, he has 36 homers in 158 Triple-A contests while also drawing walks at a 13.3% clip. That’s in the super-charged offensive environment of the PCL but his .248/.366/.480 batting line still leads to an above-average 105 wRC+.

Since Wendzel has played all four infield spots in his career, he has various paths to get into the lineup. But since he has a full slate of options, he also might find himself serving in a depth role until he’s needed.

Rangers Acquire Andrew Chafin

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The Rangers announced they’ve acquired lefty reliever Andrew Chafin from the Tigers. Pitching prospects Joseph Montalvo and Chase Lee are going to Detroit. Texas designated righty Jonathan Hernandez for assignment in a corresponding move.

The 34-year-old Chafin is in the midst of yet another solid season. He’s pitched 37 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a big 30.9% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate and a 35.8% grounder rate. He’s been particularly dominant of late, rattling off 17 innings of one-run ball with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio dating back to early June.

That 35.8% grounder rate is an uncharacteristically low mark for Chafin, who’s changed up his pitch usage this year. He’s throwing more sliders than ever before (46.4%) and missing more bats as a result but also yielding more balls in the air and a few more walks than in recent years. Chafin’s velocity is down a bit from its 93-94 mph peak, however, sitting around 92 mph on average this year with both his four-seamer and sinker. It’s possible the change in repertoire was borne out of the diminishing life on those harder offerings. Regardless, it’s been an effective recipe for the well-traveled southpaw, who’ll now suit up for the sixth team of his 11-year career.

Chafin is playing on a one-year, $4.75MM contract, although the Rangers are picking up another year of possible control over him in the form of a 2025 club option valued at $6.5MM (a net $6MM decision after factoring in a $500K buyout). He’s owed about $1.42MM of his $4.25MM base salary but has a handful of incentives approaching that could boost the value of that contract. Chafin would earn a $125K bonus for pitching in his 50th game — he’s at 41 appearances — before taking home $250K bonuses for reaching 55 and 60 games, a $300K bonus for 65 games and a $325K bonus for reaching 70 appearances. The last of those milestones could be hard to reach, but the Rangers will be on the hook for some additional incentives of note, which will all come with a 30% tax given their luxury-tax status.

With Chafin’s acquisition and Cody Bradford’s return from a 60-day IL stint, a Rangers bullpen that has lacked an established left-handed option for much of the season will suddenly have two quality options in that regard. Chafin will join a late-inning mix including Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Jose Leclerc. He’s held lefties to an awful .180/.261/.213 batting line this season, and while righties are enjoying more success at .293/.366/.390, they’re not managing much power against the southpaw. In his career, Chafin has yielded only a .234/.313/.361 line to right-handed opponents, though much of that came with a more vibrant fastball and different mix of his three pitches.

The trade for Chafin underscores the fact that yesterday’s trade of Michael Lorenzen to the Royals was less about selling off in the midst of a disappointing season and rather opening space for the return of several other veteran starters (e.g. Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Dane Dunning and, further down the road, Jacob deGrom). Much of the cost-savings from that trade of Lorenzen — earning $4.5MM with incentives of his own — will now be reallocated to the comparably priced Chafin.

Montalvo is the more highly regarded of the prospects headed to Detroit. Baseball America ranked him 19th on their most recent update of the Texas system, crediting him with a plus changeup and the ability to spin his low-90s fastball. He’s dominating lower minors opponents, striking out nearly 30% of batters faced with a 2.44 ERA in High-A. Lee is an upper minors reliever who’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if he’s not added to the 40-man roster. He lost the first couple months of this season to injury but had a 3.98 ERA in Triple-A last year.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rangers were finalizing a deal for Chafin. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirmed an agreement was in place. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the Tigers would receive Montalvo and Lee.

11 Long Shot Trade Candidates

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We're less than 24 hours from the deadline. There has been a flurry of activity dating back to Thursday night, taking a few of the top names (e.g Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Carlos Estévez, Isaac Paredes) off the board. We've devoted ample attention to the likes of Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Every deadline features some late surprises. Talks don't always get over the line, but we're likely to hear about discussions on marquee names who are less clear trade candidates than are the good players with limited contractual control on bad teams. None of the following players are likely to be traded. They've probably each got less than a 20% chance of changing uniforms. There's an argument for teams to listen on these players, though they're of varying ability and trade value.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball. If the Tigers trade him, it'd be the biggest transaction of the summer. He's probably the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young award behind a 2.35 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate over 130 innings. Detroit is three games below .500 and 5.5 out in the Wild Card race. Last night's Carson Kelly trade shows they're willing to move rentals. Needless to say, a Skubal trade would be in another stratosphere of significance.

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Rangers Make 11 Roster Moves

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5:33PM: Gray will miss roughly a month of action, Bochy told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and other reporters.

3:43PM: The Rangers announced a massive slate of roster moves this afternoon. Third baseman Josh Jung and left-hander Cody Bradford were each reinstated from the 60-day injured list while the club also recalled infielder Ezequiel Durán and righty Gerson Garabito.  To open roster spots for that quartet, right-hander Jon Gray was placed on the 15-day IL with a right groin strain, and Texas optioned three others to Triple-A — catcher Andrew Knizner, and infielders Justin Foscue and Jonathan Ornelas.  To open 40-man spots for Jung and Bradford, outfielder Evan Carter was transferred to the 60-day injured list and infielder Davis Wendzel was designated for assignment. Additionally, righty Austin Pruitt (who was on the 60-day IL) has been released.

Jung and Bradford are each set for their first MLB action since April, as Jung is returning from a complicated wrist surgery and Bradford was dealing with both a back strain and then a stress fracture in his rib.  Jung broke his wrist after being hit by a pitch in his fourth game of the season, while Bradford had an impressive 1.40 ERA in his first three starts (19 1/3 IP) before he was sidelined.

Emerging as the Rangers’ regular third baseman during his impressive rookie season, Jung helped the Rangers win last year’s World Series and was expected to continue developing in his sophomore year.  The good news for Texas is that Josh Smith’s strong work as the fill-in third baseman has helped the team make do in Jung’s absence, and with Jung now back, Smith can be bounced around the diamond to left field or DH so the Rangers can keep his bat in the lineup.

Despite Bradford’s great early numbers as a starter, the Rangers have already announced that he’ll return in a bullpen role.  Bradford was pressed into rotation duty at the start of the year due to the lengthy list of Texas pitchers on the IL, but with many of those arms now back, the Rangers find themselves with a pitching surplus on paper if everyone is healthy.  To this end, the club felt comfortable enough to subtract from this depth by trading Michael Lorenzen to the Royals.

However, the injury bug bit again yesterday when Gray injured his groin while warming up for his scheduled start against the Blue Jays.  Gray departed without throwing a pitch, and the right-hander will be out for at least the next 15 days.  Bradford has only worked as a multi-inning reliever during his rehab assignment and isn’t fully stretched out to start, but the Rangers have an off-day on Thursday and Tyler Mahle is on the verge of his own return from the IL, so Mahle seems the likeliest candidate to take Gray’s spot in the rotation in a week’s time.

This is Gray’s second groin-related IL stint this season, as he missed a couple of weeks in May and June with his previous injury.  When healthy, the righty has a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 5.8% walk rate over 94 innings, though he has allowed a lot of hard contact and his 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career over a full season.

Carter hasn’t played May 26 due to a lumbar sprain in his back, so he could technically return at any time since he has already missed over 60 days.  However, manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com and other media that Carter is set to visit a back specialist to explore some recurring soreness, and the Rangers have shut the outfielder down from the baseball activities Carter was taking part in prior to this recent development.

More will be known once Carter sees the specialist, but it’s obviously a concern that that the 21-year-old doesn’t appear to be any closer to a return.  Carter’s huge numbers after his Major League debut late last season and through the postseason provided the Rangers with a huge spark on their route to the championship, but with his bad back hampering him this year, Carter has hit only .188/.272/.361 in his first 162 PA of the 2024 campaign.

Pruitt signed a minors deal with Texas during the offseason, and that contract was selected to the active roster in April.  Pruitt appeared in only four games before a right meniscus injury sent him to the 15-day IL and then the 60-day IL.  He has spent the last month rehabbing in the minors and was at the end of the 30-day window for minor league rehab assignments, so the Rangers opted to release the righty rather than bring him back to the 26-man roster.  A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Pruitt will hit the open market again, though it might not be a surprise to see him re-sign with Texas pretty quickly on a fresh minor league deal.

Wendzel was selected 41st overall by the Rangers in the 2019 draft, and he made his big league debut this season the form of 27 games and 49 plate appearances.  He saw some work at third base during Jung’s IL stint, but Wendzel mostly came off the bench, and he hit just .128/.163/.234 in his first look at MLB pitching.

The 27-year-old has hit well at Triple-A over the last two seasons, including a 30-homer campaign for Round Rock in 2023.  Wendzel has mostly played third base and shortstop during his minor league career with a few other looks at the other two infield spots and in left field, so between this defensive versatility and his Triple-A numbers, he might be a candidate to be claimed by a team in need of infield depth.

Rangers Trade Michael Lorenzen To Royals

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The Rangers announced Monday morning that they’ve traded right-hander Michael Lorenzen to the Royals in exchange for minor league lefty Walter Pennington. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported shortly before the announcement that Kansas City had been showing interest in Lorenzen. Pennington is on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary.

A trade of Lorenzen isn’t a signal that the third-place Rangers are punting on their season. There’s been plenty of talk over the past couple weeks that with Max Scherzer, Dane Dunning, Tyler Mahle and eventually Jacob deGrom all getting healthy, Texas could move an arm from its current rotation. Lorenzen, playing on an affordable one-year contract and slated to become a free agent at season’s end, has stood as the most obvious of the bunch to change hands. With Lorenzen headed to Kansas City, the Rangers’ rotation will include Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and perhaps Dunning — although Mahle is on the cusp of wrapping up a minor league rehab assignment and could take that fifth spot.

Lorenzen, 32, has pitched 101 2/3 innings with the Rangers and turned in a very solid 3.81 earned run average, although the rest of his numbers aren’t as encouraging. Lorenzen’s 17.9% strikeout rate is well below the 22.3% league average, while his 11.5% walk rate is considerably higher than the 8.2% league average. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a nice 42.3% clip, but Lorenzen has also benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and 80.7% strand rate that are both considerably better than his career marks of .279 and 74.2%. Some regression on one or both is likely.

Even with some regression, however, Lorenzen is a solid enough back-end starter. This year’s numbers are a decent approximation of who he’s been since reaching free agency three years ago and pursuing a career as a starting pitcher after previously spending five seasons in the Reds’ bullpen. Lorenzen posted a 4.20 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 250 2/3 innings between the Angels, Tigers and Phillies over the 2022-23 seasons. Add in this year’s work and he’s at a 4.09 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that are worse-than-average but not egregiously so.

That’s a good indication of what to expect moving forward for the Royals, and Lorenzen has shown some flashes of higher output at times. His first two starts following a trade to the Phillies last summer will always be memorable for Phils fans; he tossed eight innings of two-run ball in his team debut and followed it up with a no-hitter against the Nationals his next time out, in his home debut at Citizens Bank Park. However, Lorenzen faded down the stretch, as he was pushing to a career-high innings workload (and also tossed a career-high 124 pitches in that no-hitter). The Phils moved him to the bullpen late in the season.

Kansas City’s rotation is generally full, with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha and Alec Marsh representing a sound one through five. Marsh has been hit hard after a solid start to the season, however, yielding a 6.37 ERA over his past 10 starts. He’s had a few solid outings mixed in throughout that stretch, but since May 27 he’s given up at least three runs in eight of his 10 starts (and at least four in six of them).

Lorenzen could step into that rotation spot, perhaps pushing Marsh to the bullpen or even to Triple-A Omaha. Lorenzen has already pitched enough innings to boost his $4.5MM base salary to $5.5MM, and he’d earn bonuses of $300K, $350K, $400K and $450K for reaching 120, 140, 160 and 180 innings, respectively. The Royals could technically use Lorenzen in the bullpen — they just saw both John Schreiber and Hunter Harvey exit their most recent game due to injury — but that’d be somewhat of a surprising usage given that they traded a big league-ready reliever who’s in the midst of a terrific Triple-A season in order to acquire Lorenzen.

Pennington, 26, will join the Rangers and give them an immediate option out of the ’pen. The Rangers haven’t been able to find a consistently effective lefty relief option this season, but Pennington could fit that bill. Undrafted in the shortened 2020 draft, the 6’2″, 205-pound southpaw signed out of the Colorado School of Mines — and earlier this season became just the second player from that school to ever reach the majors (and the first since Roy Hartzell back in 1906).

The Royals called Pennington up for a brief debut, but he threw just two-thirds of an inning before being sent back down to Omaha. He’s been lights-out with the Storm Chasers this season, pitching to a pristine 2.26 ERA with a 32.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a 52.6% ground-ball rate in 59 2/3 frames. Pennington sits 92-93 mph with a sinker, 89-90 mph with his cutter and 83-85 mph with a slider, rounding out a trio of primary offerings. More than half of his pitches this year have been sliders, and he’s held both lefties and righties in check along the way, yielding near-identical batting lines of .198/.250/.286 (to righties) and .156/.262/.278 (to lefties).

Pennington is in the first of three minor league option years. He can’t reach a full year of big league service in 2024, meaning the Rangers will control him through the 2030 season at the very least (although future optional assignments could push that free agent trajectory back even further). He makes for a potential long-term option in the Texas bullpen — a nice pull for a rental starter whose spot in the rotation was in jeopardy given the sheer volume of veteran arms the Rangers have coming back from injury.

Rangers Acquire Carson Kelly

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The Rangers are acquiring catcher Carson Kelly from the Tigers to fortify their catching corps. In return, Texas will ship catching prospect Liam Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Owens to Detroit. Both teams have announced the deal.

Kelly, 30, was signed by the Tigers back in August of last year after he was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks earlier that month. A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2012, Kelly was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport when he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for then-franchise face Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2019 season. The first three years of Kelly’s tenure in Arizona went solidly enough, as he paired strong work behind the plate with a collective .239/.333/.435 slash line that was good for a league average wRC+ of 100. Kelly took a step back in 2022, however, and his 2023 season with the Diamondbacks was nothing short of abysmal as he hit just .226/.283/.298 in 32 games backing up Gabriel Moreno before being DFA’d.

While Kelly did not immediately show signs of improvement upon joining the Tigers for the stretch run last year, instead hitting a paltry .173/.271/.269 in 18 games, Detroit brass still saw fit to pick up a $3.5MM club option on his services for the 2024 campaign back in November. That decision has since proven to be a wise one, as Kelly has emerged as the club’s primary catcher this year. At the plate, he’s slashed a solid .242/.327/.393 (106 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate that would be his best in a full season. Meanwhile, he’s received excellent marks from Statcast for his work behind the plate this year including elite grades for his blocking and control of the running game in addition to above-average framing numbers. That strong all-around profile combined with the low financial cost of his remaining salary figured to make Kelly one of the more attractive catching options on the market this summer.

For the Rangers, the addition of Kelly should fortify a position that has been somewhat disappointing for the club this year. After an All-Star campaign in 2023, Jonah Heim has taken a step back offensively this year and is hitting just .234/.281/.346 (75 wRC+) in 90 games, while backup Andrew Knizner has been nothing short of disastrous offensively. In 37 games with the Rangers this year, Knizner has slashed just .167/.183/.211 with a wRC+ of 4, indicating he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter this year. The addition of Kelly should provide the club with a substantial upgrade over Knizner in their catching tandem while simultaneously allowing the Rangers to lighten the workload of Heim as he works through his struggles and looks to recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most valuable backstops last year.

In order to add Kelly to their lineup, the Rangers are parting with a pair of prospects playing at the Double-A level this year. Owens is perhaps the more notable name of the two, as it’s the second time he’s been traded this year. The righty was acquired by the Rangers back in January as part of the deal that sent outfielder J.P. Martinez to Atlanta. The Braves’ 13th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Owens sports an upper-90’s fastball alongside a slider and a cutter but has typically struggled with command throughout his career. A strong 2024 may be helping to assuage some of those concerns, however, as the righty has pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever for the Rangers at the Double-A level. He’s struck out a respectable 24.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.5%, and it’s not hard to imagine the 23-year-old pitching in Triple-A for the Tigers before the season comes to an end.

Alongside Owens, the Tigers are also adding Hicks, a Double-A catcher who has shown considerable on-base ability at every level throughout his career. After tearing up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of a .449/.553/.522 slash line in 85 trips to the plate last autumn, Hicks has kicked off his age-25 season by posting a solid .364 on-base percentage in 80 games in a return to the Double-A level. A career .264/.380/.360 hitter in Double-A, Hicks’s lack of power production and lackluster grades from scouts behind the plate have tended to keep him on the fringes of most organizational top 30 lists, but it’s not hard to imagine him being useful catching depth for the big league club in the near future.

Kelly’s departure likely opens up a big league catching job for Dillon Dingler, the club’s #10 prospect according to Baseball America. Dingler receives strong grades for his work behind the plate and has flashed 20-homer power in the minor leagues but entered the 2024 season with serious questions about his contact abilities after striking out 30.7% of the time across parts of three seasons at the Double-A level. Dingler struggled badly in a brief promotion to Triple-A late last year but returned to the level in 2024 and has looked much better at the plate, posting an excellent .308/.379/.559 slash line with a 137 wRC+ and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. Dingler’s improved offensive numbers should be enough to earn him considerable playing time in the majors behind the plate as part of a tandem with Jake Rogers, who has struggled to a 68 wRC+ in 64 games this year but has posted excellent defensive numbers.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first broke the news of Kelly’s trade to the Rangers. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the return of Hicks and Owens headed to Detroit.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans

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The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.

In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.

That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.

Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe’s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.

The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.

The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.

Rangers Interested In Isaac Paredes

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With Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin traded in the last two days, the Rays have already gotten a jump on retooling and cutting payroll even as the team still has a respective .500 (52-52) record.  Isaac Paredes is another name who has gotten a lot of attention in the trade market, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (via X) reports that the Rangers have talked to the Rays about Paredes, in addition to their previously reported interest in Yandy Diaz.

Both the Astros and Mariners have also been linked to Paredes’ market, so the All-Star infielder is generating a lot of interest within the AL West alone now that the Rangers have also joined the mix.  It isn’t surprising that clubs around baseball are checking in on a player with Paredes’ combination of age (25), affordability, team control, and obvious ability on the diamond.

Paredes has blossomed over his three seasons in Tampa, including his 16 homers and .249/.356/.441 slash line over 421 plate appearances this season.  The translates to a 132 wRC+, only a touch below Paredes’ 137 mark over 571 PA in 2023.  Beyond the offense, Paredes has primarily played third base with generally around average fielding grades depending on your metric of choice, but he has also gotten a good chunk of time at first base and (prior to this season) time at second base.

It is safe to say Paredes would primarily stick to the hot corner if he landed with the Rangers, as regular third baseman Josh Jung has missed almost the entire season due to wrist surgery, and then a subsequent shutdown from a minor league rehab assignment due to continued soreness.  Jung restarted a new rehab stint just yesterday (going 1-for-3 with Double-A Frisco) but is still likely a week or two away from rejoining the lineup, given how he’ll need some space to get his timing back after such a long layoff.

Josh Smith’s excellent play at third base has helped Texas manage Jung’s absence to some extent, and the left-handed hitting Smith pairs nicely with the right-handed hitting Paredes.  That same platoon factor could give Paredes some time at first base when a left-handed starter is on the mound, thus giving the Rangers opportunity to sit Nathaniel Lowe.  Even if Jung did return relatively soon in August, that still doesn’t create any real playing time crunch, since the Rangers could rotate any of these players into the DH spot to everyone playing on more or less an everyday basis.

Paredes is a Super Two player, and is earning $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration-eligible seasons.  Adding Paredes would therefore bring another long-term option into a Rangers lineup that already has a lot of pieces locked into place.  Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are signed to mega-deals, while Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim are arb-controlled through 2026.  Leody Taveras is arb-controlled through 2027, Jung and Smith through 2028, and star prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are both still rookies.  Justin Foscue is another notable prospect in his rookie season, and shortstop prospect Sebastian Walcott is at least a couple of years away from his MLB debut but still falls within this broader timeframe.

If the Rangers feel this creates any kind of a longjam or if they feel Jung is making good progress, they could pursue a rental player type of infielder instead of Paredes.  Such a move would also naturally come at a much lower prospect cost, as Tampa Bay is surely demanding a ton in any Paredes trade.  Given his years of control and the fact that the Rays are planning to contend again in 2025, Tampa isn’t facing any pressure to trade Paredes immediately, as even a healthy arb raise this winter should still fit him comfortably within the Rays’ limited payroll parameters.

Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz

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Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.

Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.

That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.

Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.

The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.

Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.

Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.

Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.

For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.

Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.

The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.

The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.

The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.

Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero’s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.

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