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Rangers Release Spencer Patton

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The Rangers released righty Spencer Patton from their Triple-A affiliate, MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry tweets. He’s a free agent who can now sign with any other club.

Patton, 34, made a return to the Majors in 2021 on the heels of a sharp four-year run in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he pitched to a 3.68 ERA over the life of 205 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. He was a solid member of the Texas relief core last year, tossing 42 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with a strong 27.9% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and 41.3% grounder rate. Patton picked up his first two big league saves with the Rangers in 2021 and tacked on another 11 holds.

The 2022 season hasn’t gone as well, though Patton was mostly solid in seven big league frames back in April but missed several weeks with an oblique strain and was removed from the 40-man roster upon being activated from the injured list. The Rangers passed him through waivers back in May.

Patton yielded three runs on four hits and three walks with five strikeouts in the Majors earlier this year and, up until a week ago, was enjoying a fine season with Triple-A Round Rock. The right-hander worked to a 3.42 ERA with a 36-to-10 K/BB ratio through his first 26 1/3 innings in Triple-A but has unraveled in epic fashion over his past three appearances. Patton was shelled for six runs (four earned) in just an inning of work on Aug. 6 and has yielded another seven runs over his next two appearances. Overall, Patton has been rocked for 13 runs (11 earned) in his past three innings of Triple-A work.

That disastrous stretch has sent his Triple-A ERA soaring to 6.44 — nearly double the point at which it sat just 11 days ago. That said, there’s no indication of an injury, and Patton has performed at an otherwise solid level for the bulk of his time since returning from Japan. A team in need of some bullpen depth down the stretch could very well give him a look in the coming days in hopes of getting him back to his 2021 form.

Rangers Designate Elier Hernandez For Assignment

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The Rangers announced Tuesday that outfielder Elier Hernandez has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-hander Kohei Arihara, whose previously reported selection to the Major League roster has now been formally confirmed and announced by the club. Additionally, Texas optioned right-hander Yerry Rodriguez to Triple-A Round Rock and recalled infielder/outfielder Mark Mathias in his place.

Hernandez, 27, made his big league debut earlier this season after spending parts of ten seasons in the minor leagues. Once a notable international signee of the Royals, he latched on with the Rangers organization prior to the 2021 season and, after a pedestrian minor league showing last year, forced his way onto the MLB roster with an impressive Triple-A effort in 2022. Through 62 games and 231 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, Hernandez slashed .295/.364/.546 with 11 homers, nine steals, an 8.7% walk rate and a 19.5% strikeout rate.

Unfortunately, that success has yet to carry over to the Majors. Hernandez hasn’t gotten much playing time, to be fair, but he’s managed just a .182/.200/.242 output in 35 trips to the plate. He’s punched out 15 times (42.9%) against just one walk (2.9%). Trades of DFA’ed players are no longer permitted now that the deadline has passed, so Hernandez will be placed on either outright waivers or release waivers within the week.

Mathias, meanwhile, is up for the first time in a Ranger uniform. Acquired alongside pitching prospect Antoine Kelly just before the trade deadline in the deal that sent reliever Matt Bush to Milwaukee, he’s appeared in eight games with Round Rock. Mathias has collected ten hits and four walks in 35 plate appearances, a continuation of the .318/.421/.518 pace at which he’d hit with the Brewers affiliate in Nashville.

Rangers Sign Wilson Ramos To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers announced they’ve signed catcher Wilson Ramos to a minor league contract. The club plans to assign him to Triple-A Round Rock.

It’s the first landing spot of 2022 for Ramos, who has lingered on the free agent market. The veteran backstop was playing for Cleveland last August when he tore the ACL in his left knee. That required season-ending surgery, and Ramos has seemingly spent the past year rehabbing. The 35-year-old is apparently now healthy enough to get back to game action, and he’ll look to work his way back to the big leagues for a 13th consecutive season.

Ramos split last year between the Tigers and Indians, tallying 163 plate appearances over 44 games. He hit .205/.248/.397, the worst offensive showing of his big league career. That was in large part due to a career-worst .213 batting average on balls in play, however, and he still connected on eight home runs. Ramos hit .239/.297/.387 during the shortened 2020 campaign as a member of the Mets, offense that aligns with the league average for catchers.

Of course, Ramos has been a well above-average hitting backstop at points in his career. He’s a two-time All-Star who won a Silver Slugger Award and picked up down ballot MVP support with the Nationals in 2016. That season saw Ramos connect on 22 homers and hit .307/.354/.496 through 131 games. By measure of wRC+, the Venezuela native has posted five above-average hitting seasons over the course of his career.

Texas has gotten good work from its catchers this season. Jonah Heim has seized the starting job with a .249/.321/.439 showing through 91 games. Offseason minor league signee Meibrys Viloria has impressed in 20 contests since being called up two months ago. Ramos adds an experienced veteran presence to the upper minors, where one of the organization’s more promising prospects, Sam Huff, figures to assume the bulk of the playing time behind the dish.

Rangers To Select Kohei Arihara

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Following last night’s game against the A’s, the Rangers announced that Kohei Arihara would get the ball for the second contest of the series this evening. It’ll be the 30-year-old’s first big league appearance of the season, as he’s spent the entire season with Triple-A Round Rock after being outrighted off the 40-man roster last September. The Rangers 40-man is currently full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move this afternoon to formally select Arihara’s contract. Longtime Texas beat reporter Jeff Wilson first suggested that he could be on the radar for a call-up.

A longtime member of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan, Arihara made the jump to MLB over the 2020-21 offseason. The right-hander was made available by the Fighters via the posting process, and he ultimately signed a two-year, $6.2MM contract. Texas also paid a $1.24MM posting fee to the Fighters, pushing their total investment to around $7.5MM.

Arihara never threw especially hard or missed many bats in Japan, but he was a polished strike-thrower who pitched to a 3.74 ERA over six NPB seasons. Texas hoped that control could allow him to flourish as a back-of-the-rotation arm in the big leagues, but that hasn’t been the case thus far. Arihara made ten big league starts last season, allowing a 6.64 ERA over 40 2/3 innings while struggling mightily with the home run ball (2.43 HR/9). He required shoulder surgery that May and spent nearly four months rehabbing before returning in September. After three more starts, he was run through waivers and assigned to Triple-A.

Through 18 appearances (14 starts) with Round Rock in 2022, Arihara has a 4.88 ERA in 72 innings. His 20.4% strikeout rate is a bit below-average, but he’s demonstrating his customary excellent control (5.8% walk percentage). More importantly, he’s gotten his home run rate to a more manageable level than it was during his first MLB stint, largely because he’s inducing grounders on over half the batted balls against him. Arihara’s season line still isn’t eye-catching, but he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past five starts and will get a shot to try to carry that over against big league hitters.

Arihara’s contract wraps up at the end of the season, so the final couple months are particularly important for him personally. Capturing a rotation spot and performing serviceably over the next seven weeks would seem to be a prerequisite if he hopes to land a major league contract this winter. The Rangers have already bumped Taylor Hearn to a relief role after a rough run in the rotation, but they’re without Jon Gray due to an oblique strain and have given 18 starts to Glenn Otto without much consistent success. There’s enough uncertainty Arihara could have a path to picking up a handful of starts down the stretch.

Rangers Fire Manager Chris Woodward

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The Rangers have made a change atop the dugout, announcing the dismissal of manager Chris Woodward on Monday afternoon. Third base coach Tony Beasley will take over on an interim capacity for the remainder of the 2022 season.

“(General manager) Chris Young and I had the very difficult task of informing Chris Woodward of our decision today,” president of baseball operations Jon Daniels said in the press release announcing the decision. “In his tenure as Rangers’ manager, Chris worked tirelessly under what was at times some difficult circumstances. He has been dedicated and passionate in his efforts to improve the on-field performance of the Texas Rangers, and it is greatly appreciated. He has represented the organization with class and dignity.

We have had extensive discussions over the last several weeks and while the team’s current performance is certainly a big part of this decision, we are also looking at the future. As the Rangers continue to develop a winning culture and put the pieces together to compete for the postseason year in and year out, we felt a change in leadership was necessary at this time. On behalf of the entire Texas Rangers organization, we thank Chris and wish him and his family the very best.”

Woodward, 46, spent a bit under four seasons at the helm in Arlington. Texas hired him off the Dodgers coaching staff over the 2018-19 offseason, making him the permanent replacement after dismissing Jeff Banister that September (with some intervening interim work from Don Wakamatsu). Woodward stepped into a difficult situation, taking over a team coming off a last-place finish that was cutting payroll as it embarked upon a rebuild.

Texas bounced back a bit during Woodward’s first season, finishing in third place in the AL West at 78-84. The club was outscored by 68 runs that year, though, and regression hit the following season. Texas went 22-38 during the shortened campaign, then stumbled to a 60-102 record in 2021. It marked back-to-back last place finishes, but Texas nevertheless signed Woodward last November to an extension that ran through 2023.

At the time, Daniels praised the skipper for “(helping) to lay the foundation of our culture” throughout his first three seasons. The Texas front office certainly couldn’t have expected great results with the rosters they’d trotted out through 2019-21, and Woodward’s extension reflected the organization’s confidence in his ability to guide the club to a more competitive phase. Texas signaled a desire to push payroll forward at the start of the offseason, and they followed through with a far more aggressive winter than many might have expected.

The Rangers signed four players to multi-year free agent contracts, including two of the three largest overall guarantees of the offseason. Texas added Corey Seager for $325MM over a decade not long after signing Marcus Semien for seven years and $175MM. They stepped in as the Rangers foundational middle infield, while the club signed Jon Gray to a four-year, $56MM pact to anchor the starting rotation. Texas brass acknowledged that leaping from a 60-win team to immediate postseason contention seemed like a stretch, even with such an aggressive offseason overhaul. Yet they no doubt anticipated a marked improvement that’d serve as a stepping stone to a playoff run in 2023.

The results on that front have been mixed. The Rangers are on pace for their best season in three years, with a 51-63 record that has them in third place in the AL West. A 44.7% winning percentage is much better than the sub-40% marks of 2020-21, but that still translates to a roughly 90-loss pace over the course of a full schedule. They’re 9 1/2 games out in the Wild Card and virtually certain to miss the playoffs again, with little hope of playing meaningful games in the season’s final couple weeks.

At the same time, one could argue the Rangers have been more competitive than their record would suggest. They’ve been outscored by only two runs on the season with more blowout wins (games decided by five-plus runs) than losses. Had they played to a roughy .500 record that aligned with their run differential, they’d be in the Wild Card picture and the general tenor of the franchise would be far more optimistic. Instead, they’ve gone an atrocious 6-24 in one-run contests, losing so many tight games they’re nowhere near contention.

How much responsibility Woodward bears for that record is open to debate. There’s no doubt some amount of misfortune with a record that poor, but one could also note that Woodward is ultimately in charge of managing a bullpen that has blown 18 leads (the eighth-most in the majors). Texas has gotten productive seasons from some of their young position players (i.e. Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowe), but the club hasn’t gotten much from their younger starting pitchers aside from Dane Dunning. Meanwhile, Texas has gotten solid seasons from Seager and Gray, but Semien has underperformed in the inaugural season of his free agent deal.

Of course, managerial decisions are made based on far more than just the club’s on-field results. Teams are evaluating a skipper’s handling of the clubhouse and behind-the-scenes work that takes place out of public view. Daniels and Young evidently determined the time had come for a change in the voice atop the clubhouse.

Over the next two months, that’ll come with the elevation of Beasley to the manager’s chair. A former minor league skipper in the Pirates and Nationals farm systems, Beasley first joined Texas’ coaching staff in advance of the 2015 season. The 55-year-old is now in his eighth year with the Rangers, a stint that overlapped Banister’s and Woodward’s time as skipper. This will be his first major league managerial opportunity.

Texas will conduct a search for a full-timer next offseason. They’re the fourth team that’ll be doing so, as each of the Phillies (Joe Girardi), Angels (Joe Maddon) and Blue Jays (Charlie Montoyo) have dismissed their skippers in-season. Philadelphia has gone on a tear under interim manager Rob Thomson, while the Angels continued to flounder under their temporary skipper Phil Nevin. The Blue Jays have improved an already-productive club in their first month under interim manager John Schneider.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported Woodward’s dismissal.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Recall Yerry Rodriguez

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The Rangers have called up right-hander Yerry Rodriguez to the majors for the first time.  The 24-year-old will take the roster spot of left-hander Matt Moore, who was placed on the paternity list.

Even if it’s only for a cup of coffee in the majors while Moore is away, Rodriguez is now on pace to make his MLB debut.  He has been a member of the Rangers’ 40-man roster since the 2020-21 offseason, and the former international signing is in his sixth season of pro ball.

MLB Pipeline ranks Rodriguez as the 24th-best prospect in the Texas farm system, citing his ” deceptive delivery with a flat approach angle and the athleticism to repeat it consistently.”  His fastball and changeup both received 55 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, though Pipeline’s scouting report notes that since Rodriguez moved to mostly full-time bullpen work this season, he has used his changeup less often than a slider, with shaky results.

Over 42 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, Rodriguez has a 4.43 ERA and a 28.6% strikeout rate.  The righty has been able to consistently generate strikeouts on his way up the minor league ladder, but his control has suddenly become an issue, with his walk rate spiking to 13.6% this year.  That problem will surely have to be corrected if Rodriguez is going to be part of the conversation for a bullpen role in 2023, but the Texas coaching staff will get an opportunity for a first-hand look at the youngster in the coming days.

Rangers, Tyler Duffey Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers are signing reliever Tyler Duffey to a minor league contract, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). The veteran righty was released by the Twins earlier this week. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North adds (on Twitter) that Duffey’s deal comes with multiple opt-out opportunities.

Duffey had spent a decade in the Minnesota organization, entering pro ball as a fifth-round pick in 2012. He reached the majors three years later, initially struggling as a starting pitcher before finding success upon moving to the bullpen. Duffey broke out in 2019, when he posted a 2.50 ERA through 57 2/3 innings. That came with a stellar 34.5% strikeout percentage and a tiny 5.9% walk rate, kicking off a three-year run in which he was quietly one of the better high-leverage relievers in the league.

The Rice product pitched to a sterling 1.88 ERA during 22 appearances in the abbreviated 2020 season, followed by a 3.18 mark over last year’s full schedule. Duffey’s strikeout and walk numbers went in the wrong direction last season, but that still marked a third straight solid campaign. He posted a 2.69 ERA over 144 innings between 2019-21, striking out 29.8% of batters faced while holding the opposition to a .200/.273/.316 slash line.

Minnesota surely hoped for more of the same this season, but Duffey hasn’t been able to consistently get on track in 2022. He owns a 4.91 ERA across 44 innings with a 21.1% strikeout rate that is well below the marks he’s posted in his best seasons. He’s also surrendered eight home runs and generated swinging strikes at an 11.1% clip that, while around the 11.7% league average for relievers, is about four points lower than Duffey’s 2019-20 peak. He’d allowed runs in three of his four most recent appearances before Minnesota let him go.

There’s no downside for the Rangers in taking a shot to see if Duffey can recapture his pre-2022 form. The Twins remain on the hook for the rest of his $3.8MM salary, and Texas would only owe him the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum if he makes the big league roster. (That’d be subtracted from the Twins payments). The 31-year-old is headed to free agency at the end of the season regardless, but he’ll be a late-season depth option for a Texas bullpen that ranks 11th in the majors with a 3.71 ERA.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Injury Notes: Hendricks, Borucki, Jung

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Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks underwent an MRI yesterday that will determine whether the veteran starter will be able to return this season, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced to reporters (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). It’s been more than a month since a shoulder strain sent Hendricks to the injured list, and the last update from the team (prior to this MRI revelation) came back on July 13, when Hendricks was shut down from throwing for three weeks. Presumably, the Cubs will get multiple opinions on the MRI results before making a determination and ultimately making an announcement regarding the 32-year-old righty.

Hendricks, a former MLB leader in ERA and third-place finisher in Cy Young voting (both in 2016), is in the third guaranteed season of a four-year, $55.5MM contract that also contains a club option for the 2024 campaign. He’s made 16 starts for the Cubs this season and logged a 4.80 ERA — a near-mirror image of last year’s 4.77 mark across 32 outings. The Cubs owe him $14MM in 2023, and there’s a $1.5MM buyout on a $16MM team option for the 2024 season.

Some more injury scenarios that merit attention…

  • Left-hander Ryan Borucki, the lone southpaw in the Mariners’ bullpen, will undergo an MRI after exiting last night’s game with a forearm strain, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Divish notes that Mariners skipper Scott Servais “would prefer to have a lefty out of the bullpen if possible.” The only other lefty option on the 40-man roster is rookie Brennan Bernardino, who has all of 2 1/3 Major League innings under his belt. The M’s do have Roenis Elias, Fernando Abad and Nick Ramirez as non-40-man options in Triple-A Tacoma, and each has posted anywhere from passable to strong numbers with the Rainiers thus far. Borucki, 28, has pitched 19 1/3 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Seattle since being acquired from the Jays back in June.
  • Rangers top prospect Josh Jung will come off the minor league injured list and make his season debut with Triple-A Round Rock tonight, tweets Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. The 24-year-old Jung, whom Texas tabbed with the No. 8 overall pick back in 2019, entered the season as one of the sport’s top overall prospects but required surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder in late February. At the time, it was believed that Jung would need about six months to be ready just to serve as a designated hitter in a game setting, but he’s beaten that timeline considerably, as Landry notes that he’s slated to play third base tonight and has already played in eight rehab games with the organization’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League. Jung hit .326/.398/.592 in 342 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season and, prior to the injury, was seen as a candidate to make his big league debut this year. Now that he’s back in action at Triple-A with two months of season left, it’s again feasible he could reach the Majors in 2022.
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