- Clayton Kershaw has one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers in each of the last two offseasons, and it has been widely known that Kershaw was choosing between only retirement, returning to Los Angeles, or possibly signing with his hometown Rangers. While Kershaw opted to keep playing in L.A. on both occasions, Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Texas’ breakout success now makes it a tougher decision for Kershaw, as the Rangers have now shown that their willingness to spend can translate to championship contention.
Rangers Rumors
Max Scherzer Dealing With Cut On Thumb
- Rangers ace Max Scherzer came off the injured list for the ALCS after missing more than a month with a teres major strain. In two appearances during the series, the veteran righty struggled, allowing seven runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. While it’s not exactly surprising for a pitcher to struggle after a layoff of over a month, Newsday’s David Lennon relays another potential explanation for Scherzer’s struggles during the series. Scherzer told reporters (including Lennon) yesterday that he was hampered by a cut on his thumb near the nail during both of his starts during the series. Scherzer added that he doesn’t expect the ailment to be an issue during the World Series. Though starters haven’t been announced beyond Game 2, Scherzer figures to line up for Game 3 of the World Series following Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?
The grand finale of the 2023 season is set to begin this evening, as the NL champion Diamondbacks head to Arlington to take on the AL champion Rangers for the first game of this year’s World Series.
Both teams have faced plenty of adversity en route to creating the third ever World Series matchup featuring two Wild Card teams, and they each did so via rather similar paths. After all, both clubs led their division for much of the first half of the season before losing their grip on the role in the second half and settling for a Wild Card spot. Since then, they both swept through the Wild Card series before delivering an additional sweep against a 100-win team in the Division Series. In the Championship Series, both teams were trailing after Game 5 but managed to come back with wins in both Game 6 and Game 7 to win their first pennant in over a decade.
It’s all the more impressive given that neither Texas nor Arizona were expected to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season: the playoff odds over at Fangraphs gave the Rangers just a 37.7% chance to make the postseason with a 2% chance of a World Series run, while the Diamondbacks were afforded just 15.3% playoff odds and a 0.5% chance to make the World Series, a bottom-ten figure in the majors. What’s more, both clubs lost 100 games just two seasons ago, during the 2021 campaign.
That’s not to say these clubs are the same, of course. Despite their lack of recent postseason history, the Rangers look in many ways like the prototypical October team. They sport a fantastic front three for their starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi (2.42 ERA in four playoff appearances, 3.63 regular season ERA), Jordan Montgomery (2.16 ERA in five playoff appearances, 2.79 regular season ERA with Texas), and veteran ace Max Scherzer, who struggled in two ALCS starts coming back from a teres major strain but posted a 3.20 ERA during his time with the Rangers during the regular season.
If Scherzer has shaken off the rust enough to look like himself during the World Series, that’s a frightening three-headed monster for Arizona to have to overcome in this series. On the positional side, meanwhile, the Rangers feature a frightening lineup including stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, and power-hitting sluggers Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver. As strong as the lineup and rotation in Arlington may be, the club’s bullpen has been its Achilles’ heel this postseason as key relief arms like Jose Leclerc (4.35 postseason ERA) and Will Smith (9.00 postseason ERA) have struggled badly, though Cody Bradford and Aroldis Chapman have gotten stronger results, with a combined 1.50 ERA across 12 innings of work this postseason.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, appear as unlikely a pennant winner as they come. They finished with just an 84-78 record in the regular season and a run differential of -14, making them the first ever team to win the NL pennant with a negative run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential were the 1987 Twins, who went on to win it all in seven games over the Cardinals. With that being said, the Diamondbacks are hardly a pushover. Though the club’s .247/.317/.424 slash line this postseason pales in comparison to that of the Rangers, Arizona’s pitching staff has actually posted stronger numbers this October with a 3.31 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate against Texas’s 3.67 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate.
That strong pitching performance has come in spite of the struggles of team ace Zac Gallen, who posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 210 innings during the regular season but has scuffled to a 5.24 ERA in four postseason starts. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (2.65 ERA in three postseason starts) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA in four postseason starts) have managed to pick the club’s rotation up, however, an especially impressive feat considering Pfaadt’s lackluster regular season ERA of 5.72 across 96 innings. The back of the club’s bullpen has also been nothing short of stellar, with closer Paul Sewald and primary set-up man Kevin Ginkel combining for 17 scoreless innings of work this postseason. Right-hander Ryan Thompson has also impressed, with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work throughout the playoffs.
On offense, franchise face Ketel Marte (164 wRC+ this postseason) has excelled, while rookies Corbin Carroll (130 postseason wRC+) and Gabriel Moreno (129 wRC+) have also impressed in their first tastes of postseason action. Strong as that trio’s performance may be, however, other key bats like Tommy Pham, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all struggled to this point in the postseason. That could give Texas the offensive edge unless some of the club’s colder bats manage to heat up during the series.
With Gallen and Eovaldi scheduled to face off later this evening for Game 1 of the World Series, which team do MLBTR readers think will take home the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
MLBTR Podcast: Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
- Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
- What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
- Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
- Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
- The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Who should the Mariners target in free agency? (27:45)
- Should the Mariners look to replace Eugenio Suárez or Ty France? (29:35)
- Where will Cody Bellinger sign and for how much? (30:35)
Check out our past episodes!
- Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
- The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
- Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here
Latest On Mitch Garver; Red Sox Reportedly Offered Nathan Eovaldi Three-Year Deal Last Offseason
Rangers fans received news today regarding catcher and DH Mitch Garver, who was hit in the rib cage by a pitch from Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu during the sixth inning of Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday. Garver was removed for a pinch-hitter prior to what would have been his next trip to the plate in the eighth inning. Fortunately, however, the Rangers indicated yesterday that an MRI showed Garver’s rib cage had sustained no fractures. Of course, as noted by The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, it’s still possible that the incident could impact Garver during the World Series against the Diamondbacks even as he avoided serious injury.
Garver’s had a solid 2023 with the bat for Texas, though his injury history and lack of time behind the plate in 2023 make for an unusual platform season ahead of his first foray into free agency this November. After slashing .270/.370/.500 in 344 trips to the plate during the regular season, Garver has hit even better for the club in the postseason with a .294/.368/.529 line across 38 plate appearances, with two home runs, two doubles, and a strikeout rate of just 15.8%. If the Rangers don’t feel the need to afford him extra rest after his injury scare, Garver figures to factor into the club’s lineup regularly after drawing starts at DH during every game of the ALCS.
- Sticking with the Rangers, veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been a key cog in the club’s success this season. After posting a 3.63 ERA in 144 innings of work during the regular season, Eovaldi has posted quality starts all four times he’s taken the mound for Texas this postseason, with a 2.42 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work. Eovaldi’s success with the Rangers this year prompted MassLive’s Chris Cotillo to look back at Eovaldi’s free agency last offseason, during which there was mutual interest in a reunion with the Red Sox. Cotillo notes that Boston offered the veteran righty a three-year, $51MM deal in early December, though after Eovaldi decided to hold out for a better offer, the club’s later signings of players like Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida left Boston with a budget crunch later in the offseason. While the sides remained in contact until Eovaldi signed in Texas, Boston’s later offers were characterized by what Cotillo describes as “creative structures” thanks to a desire to stay under the luxury tax. Ultimately, Cotillo adds, the Red Sox pivoted to righty Corey Kluber, who posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances this year, after Eovaldi landed with the Rangers on a two-year, $34MM deal.
Bryan Abreu To Serve Two-Game Suspension In 2024
Major League Baseball announced the ruling of the appellate hearing for Astros reliever Bryan Abreu. While the two-game suspension for hitting Adolis García with a pitch has been upheld, the right-hander is allowed to postpone the ban until the start of the 2024 regular season.
Former big leaguer Adam Jones first reported that Abreu’s suspension would be delayed on Foul Territory this afternoon. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that the right-hander’s fine was also reduced (X link).
Abreu hit García with a 99 MPH fastball in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 5. García had hit a go-ahead, three-run homer in his previous at-bat. After being plunked, the Rangers slugger confronted Houston catcher Martín Maldonado, leading both dugouts to empty. Abreu was ejected for what the umpiring crew (and subsequently MLB) determined was an intentional hit-by-pitch. García was thrown out of the game for arguing with Maldonado, while Houston skipper Dusty Baker was also tossed after he vehemently argued Abreu’s ejection. Houston came back to win the game on Jose Altuve’s homer in the ninth.
The pitcher was the only player suspended for the incident. Abreu’s appeal allowed him to pitch last night. Baker called upon him for one inning in an eventual 9-2 loss. Since he only tossed 20 pitches, he’ll be available for tonight’s Game 7. Abreu pitched to a 1.75 ERA in 72 regular season innings. He has tossed 7 1/3 frames of two-run ball this October.
Bryan Abreu Suspended Following Benches-Clearing Incident
6:16PM: Abreu has officially appealed his suspension, and will thus be available to pitch in Game 6 tonight, as per The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. The appeal hearing will take place tomorrow in advance of a possible Game 7.
TODAY, 11:42am: Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Abreu has not yet officially appealed his two-game suspension. If appealed, the suspension would begin immediately following a settlement with the players’ union or the decision being upheld during a hearing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that Abreu had officially appealed his suspension, and that a hearing would be scheduled for tomorrow prior to a hypothetical Game 7.
Oct 21, 5:31pm: As noted by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, the current CBA stipulates that all appeals of postseason suspensions must be settled within 48 hours. That clause would appear to indicate that Abreu will be forced to serve the suspension during the postseason unless the suspension is overturned on appeal.
Oct 21, 5:00pm: Major League Baseball announced this evening that Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu has been suspended for two games and fined an undisclosed amount for his role in last night’s benches-clearing skirmish between the Astros and the Rangers last night. Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. and manager Dusty Baker were both fined for their roles in the incident, as was Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and right-hander Matt Bush. Both McCullers and Bush will be prohibited from sitting on their club’s bench for the remainder of the ALCS.
Garcia, 30, walked out of the batter’s box slowly after hitting a go-ahead, three-run homer off of Houston ace Justin Verlander. When Garcia returned to the plate during the eighth inning, he was struck on the shoulder by a fastball from Abreu. Garcia dropped his bat and confronted Astros catcher Martin Maldonado about the hit-by-pitch, leading the benches to clear. Abreu, Garcia, and Baker were all ejected during the incident, and the Astros went on to the the game 5-4 after second baseman Jose Altuve hit a go-ahead, three-run homer of his own in the ninth inning.
As discussed by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, neither side was pleased with the handling of the situation following the game. Abreu and other Astros players believing a warning should have been issued rather than an ejection, while Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was displeased with the twelve-minute delay following the incident. Bochy believes the delay could have impacted Texas righty Jose Leclerc, who surrendered the aforementioned game-winning homer to Altuve following the incident.
If Abreu elects not to appeal, he would miss the remainder of the ALCS, and potentially the first game of the World Series if the Astros win Game 6 tomorrow night. Should Abreu appeal, the suspension would be put on hold until the appeal is resolved. It’s not yet clear if Abreu intends to appeal the commissioner’s office’s decision, though ESPN’s Jeff Passan indicates that Abreu is “expected” to appeal and that if he does so, any suspension would likely be postponed until the 2024 campaign.
Abreu has been a key reliever for the Astros all season, with a 1.75 ERA and a 34.8% strikeout rate in 72 innings of work this year. That dominance has carried over to the postseason, where Abreu has 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across seven appearances, striking out eleven while walking just two.
MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out
The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.
Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.
While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.
Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.
That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.
Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.
Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Will Venable Declined Managerial Interview With Mets
Rangers associate manager Will Venable declined an opportunity to interview for the Mets’ managerial vacancy, he told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The former MLB outfielder had also drawn interest from the Guardians.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported last week that Venable intended to remain in Arlington, however. Venable went on record to confirm that, telling Sherman he’s “not pursuing any other jobs.” He expressed his comfort working with Texas general manager Chris Young and skipper Bruce Bochy.
Venable has long been regarded as a future manager. The Princeton graduate played nine years in the big leagues. He has since spent six seasons on an MLB coaching staff, working with the Cubs and Red Sox before joining Texas last winter. Venable has interviewed for manager jobs in prior offseasons but clearly doesn’t intend to take on such a position in 2024.
There hasn’t been a ton of detail on the Mets’ search since the team moved on from Buck Showalter three weeks ago. First-year baseball operations leader David Stearns has said only that the club planned to cast a wide net. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported this week that New York would go outside the organization for its new hire. There’s been plenty of speculation about Craig Counsell leaving Milwaukee to rejoin Stearns in Queens, but the Mets won’t be able to speak with Counsell until the start of next month under the terms of his contract with the Brewers.
The Opener: NLCS, ALCS, Scherzer
With a couple of postseason games on the docket, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:
1. NLCS Game 3:
After a rough couple of games at Citizens Bank Park, the Diamondbacks are headed home to Chase Field. The change of scenery could be just what they need to regain their momentum and slow down the red-hot Phillies. Across the regular season and the playoffs, Philadelphia has gone 55-32 (.632) at home this season. However, they’ve been far more vulnerable on the road, with a 42-41 (.506) record.
The rookie Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona, while Ranger Suárez takes the hill for Philadelphia. Pfaadt has looked capable in his first two postseason outings, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in seven innings of work. Suárez, however, is starting to look like a playoff legend in the making, with a career 1.16 ERA in 23 1/3 innings over the past two postseasons.
While D-backs manager Torey Lovullo has kept Pfaadt on a short leash thus far, he might have to ride his no. 3 starter a little harder this time around. The team is planning a bullpen game for Game 4, so Lovullo would surely like to give his relievers a little rest today. At the same time, he will need to be aggressive to avoid putting his team in a 3-0 hole. It will be a difficult balancing act for the longtime Diamondbacks skipper.
First pitch is set for 4:07 pm CT.
2. ALCS Game 4:
Following a momentum-shifting 8-5 victory in Game 3, the Astros will look to even up the series with the Rangers tonight at Globe Life Field. Meanwhile, the Rangers will look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the postseason.
Andrew Heaney will take the mound for Texas against José Urquidy of Houston in a battle between two starters who have moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this season. Neither looked as sharp in 2023 as he did the year before, but both pitched well in their first postseason outings. Heaney held the Orioles to one run in 3 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS, while Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a series-clinching Game 4 victory over the Twins.
The game begins at 7:03 pm CT.
3. Scherzer struggles in his return:
Max Scherzer wasn’t exactly sharp in his return to the mound on Wednesday, giving up five runs in four innings against the Astros. The veteran starter had not pitched in over a month, and he made a remarkably speedy return from a teres major strain, so one can hardly blame him for looking a little rusty. Still, the Rangers need more from the eight-time All-Star if they’re going to hand him the ball in a potential ALCS Game 7.
On a positive note, manager Bruce Bochy had enough confidence in Scherzer to let him finish four innings despite his struggles. After the game, Scherzer told reporters (including Julia Kreuz of MLB.com) that his arm felt “really good” and that it “responded well.” However, the Rangers will surely keep close tabs on the future Hall of Famer in the coming days, before Bochy makes any decisions about his potential Game 7 starter.
