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MLBTR Poll: Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?

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After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?

The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.

Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.

However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.

The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.

Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.

Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.

Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.

As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.

So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Rangers Sign Derek Hill, Andrew Knapp, Elier Hernandez To Minors Contracts

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The Rangers announced seven minor league signings today, with the players all receiving invitations to the club’s big league Spring Training camp.  The signings of Diego Castillo and Jesus Tinoco were previously reported, and Texas’ group included three more players with MLB experience — outfielder Derek Hill, catcher Andrew Knapp, and outfielder Elier Hernandez.

Hill has seen some action in each of the last four Major League seasons, beginning with his big league debut as a member of the Tigers in 2020.  Hill appeared in 95 games with Detroit from 2020-22 before signing a minors deal with the Nationals last winter that resulted in 13 more MLB appearances this past season.  Washington designated Hill for assignment and outrighted him off the 40-man roster in July, and Hill chose to become a minor league free agency after the regular season was over.

Just a few days shy of his 28th birthday, Hill hasn’t hit much over his limited big league career, with a .229/.279/.314 slash line over 304 plate appearances.  Selected 23rd overall by the Tigers in the 2014 draft, Hill’s bat took a while to get going even in the minors, though he has hit .288/.348/.472 with 22 homers and 28 steals (in 35 tries) over 756 career PA at the Triple-A level.

These numbers hint at some “quad-A” uncertainty for Hill, yet his speed, Triple-A production, and his ability to at least passably play all three outfield positions should keep giving him some opportunities on minor league contracts.  With Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski both free agents, Hill and Hernandez will give the Rangers some outfield depth at the Triple-A level, especially since top prospect Wyatt Langford is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024 and Evan Carter has already broken out as an outfield regular heading into next season.

It’s a familiar role for Hernandez, who is returning for his fourth straight season in the Texas organization.  Originally an international signing for the Royals way back in 2011, the 29-year-old Hernandez has become a fixture at Triple-A Round Rock, posting particularly good numbers for the Rangers’ top affiliate in each of the last two seasons.  That production earned Hernandez his first big league look in 2022, when he had a .442 OPS over 35 PA in 14 games with Texas.

The 32-year-old Knapp has the most Major League experience of the trio, as the veteran backstop suited up for 325 appearances from 2017-22.  Most (309) of that work came as a part-time catcher and backup with the Phillies, but Knapp has since bounced around the league since he first elected free agency following the 2021 season.  Knapp saw MLB action with three teams (the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants) in 2022, and he has also been a member of the Reds, Tigers, and Astros organization without the benefit of any big league call-ups.  Knapp spent all of 2023 at Triple-A, hitting a combined .233/.328/.377 over 358 for Detroit and Houston’s top affiliates.

With Mitch Garver now joining the Mariners and already leaning more towards a DH-only role anyway, the Rangers were in need of some additional depth behind the plate.  Jonah Heim will start and Knapp could give Sam Huff some competition for the backup job in Spring Training.  Since there aren’t any other catchers in the organization with any big league experience, Texas will likely look to add one or two more backstops on minor league deals to further add to their list of catching options heading into camp.

Rangers Sign Diego Castillo To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-hander Diego Castillo to a minor league contract, according to Castillo’s player page on MLB.com. The details of the the deal aren’t clear, but presumably include an invite to big league Spring Training.

Castillo, 30 next month, made his big league debut with the Rays back in 2018. Early in his career Castillo found success as a solid middle reliever for Tampa, with a 3.30 ERA and 3.53 FIP in 125 1/3 innings across 108 appearances (including 17 appearances as an opener). Castillo owned a solid 28.5% strikeout rate against a walk rate of 8.6% with an impressive 51.8% groundball rate. Among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the 2018-19 seasons, only Luke Jackson, Jace Fry and Ryan Pressly struck out more batters while posting a groundball rate north of 50%.

Impressive as the first two seasons of his career already were, Castillo found another gear headed into the shortened 2020 season when he posted a sterling 1.66 ERA across 21 2/3 innings of work with a whopping 60.4% groundball rate. Castillo’s success during the shortened seasons saw him establish himself as a quality set-up option at the back of the Rays bullpen, resulting in the club dealing him to the Mariners the following summer. From 2020-22, Castillo posted a 2.95 ERA (134 ERA+) despite an elevated 3.84 FIP thanks to a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 49.7% groundball rate.

Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Castillo entering the 2023 season as the righty struggled to a 6.23 ERA across 8 2/3 innings of work for Seattle early in the year, resulting in the club outrighting Castillo off the roster in early May. The right-hander’s struggles continued in the minors throughout the year, as Castillo posted an ERA of 5.13 across 47 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level across the remainder of the season. Castillo became a minor league free agent back in October, giving the Rangers the opportunity to pick him up on a non-roster deal.

Brutal as Castillo’s performance was in 2023, his addition could provide a significant boost to the Rangers if he’s able to re-establish himself as a quality set-up arm or even as a solid middle reliever. Entering the 2023 season, Castillo sported a career 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP. Meanwhile, the Rangers had one of the worst relief corps in the entire league last season, even before the departures of Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton in free agency.

While Jose Leclerc is a strong back-end option and the likes of Kirby Yates and Brock Burke could be valuable pieces, Texas will need contributions from others outside of that trio to improve upon their 2023 bullpen ERA of 4.77. A rebound for Castillo would go a long way to achieving that goal, but for now the right-hander figures to enter the spring with competing for a spot in the club’s bullpen with the likes of Grant Anderson and Jake Latz.

Latest On Rangers' Pursuit Of Clayton Kershaw

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  • While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Shin-Soo Choo To Retire After 2024 KBO Season

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Longtime big league veteran Shin-Soo Choo announced earlier this week (hat tip to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that 2024 will be his final season in pro baseball.  The 41-year-old Choo has played with the Korea Baseball Organization’s SSG Landers for the last three seasons, and he’ll spent one more year with the Landers before hanging up his cleats.  Choo is essentially playing for free in 2024, as he re-signed with the Landers for a KBO-minimum salary and will donate the sum to charity.

“I decided it was time for me to put a period on my baseball journey that started in 2001,” Choo said in a team statement to the Korea Times and other outlets.  “Since the 2024 season will be my last one, I want to show my gratitude to baseball fans, both at home and on the road, and give them long-lasting memories throughout the year.”

Choo hit .275/.377/.447 over 7157 plate appearances and 1652 games in the majors from 2005-20.  A “professional hitter” type, Choo delivered a very solid 123 wRC+ over his 16 MLB seasons, always showing a knack for getting on base even in his less-successful seasons at the plate.  Choo was also something of an underrated threat power-wise (218 home runs) and on the basepaths (157 steals in 212 chances), as he authored three 20-20 seasons during his big league career.

An international signing for the Mariners in 2000, Choo spent parts of his first two Major League campaigns in Seattle before being traded to Cleveland in July 2006.  It was a shrewd acquisition for the Indians, as Choo went on to become a lineup fixture over seven seasons with the Tribe.  However, as the team fell out of contention and Choo’s arbitration numbers began to increase, Cleveland dealt Choo to the Reds as part of a three-team, nine-player trade also involving the Diamondbacks in December 2012.

Choo’s lone season in Cincinnati was the best of his career, as he hit .285/.423/.462 with 21 homers and 20 stolen bases over 712 PA for a Reds team that reached the postseason.  This great platform year led to a big free agent payday for Choo in the form of a seven-year, $130MM deal with Texas.  Such a contract inevitably comes with high expectations, and unfortunately for both Choo and the Rangers, the deal didn’t really work out.

Between injuries and a declining glove, Choo’s value became entirely tied to his bat, and thus producing only good (111 wRC+) numbers in Texas wasn’t enough.  Choo ended up generating only 7.5 fWAR over the length of that seven-year deal, and it didn’t help that the franchise as a whole went into a rebuild period during Choo’s tenure.  After a pair of tough playoff losses to the Blue Jays in 2015-16, the Rangers didn’t post another winning record for the remaining four seasons of Choo’s deal.

After garnering only limited interest from big league teams during the 2020-21 offseason, Choo decided to head back to his native country and sign with the Landers (then known as the SK Wyverns).  Since Choo had signed with the Mariners as an amateur, he had never played in the KBO League prior to 2021, and his homecoming has been a successful one.  Choo has hit .259/.391/.427 over his three seasons with the Landers, and the team won the Korean Series in 2022.

Max Scherzer Undergoes Back Surgery

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The Rangers announced Friday that right-hander Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back. General manager Chris Young tells reporters that the team and Scherzer tried “multiple conservative treatments in pain management” before resorting to surgery (link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Unfortunately, the last-resort option was apparently deemed necessary, and the operation will sideline Scherzer into June or even July.

“After returning to my offseason home in Florida, my discomfort in my back continued to get worse,” Scherzer himself said, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. “During this time, I received a diagnosis of a herniated disc. After several conservative treatments and consulting with multiple specialists, I made the decision to have the recommended surgery. Getting this procedure done now will give me the best chance to pitch as much as possible for the Rangers in 2024. I look forward to putting in the rehab work and getting back on the mound next summer.”

It’s obviously unwelcome news for the Rangers, who just gave up Luisangel Acuña to acquire Scherzer and cash from the Mets at last year’s deadline. As part of that deal, the Scherzer agreed to pick up his 2024 player option so that the club knew it was getting him for more than just a rental situation. Now he will miss at least half of the upcoming season that was obviously important to them.

These back problems aren’t coming out of the blue today. Scherzer was removed from Game 3 of the World Series after just three innings due to issue with his back, varyingly described as tightness or spasms. He was removed from the club’s roster prior to Game 4. Though the club was able to secure the title without him, it seems the issue lingered and ultimately required a significant surgery.

The club is now in a very peculiar situation in terms of their rotation, with the first half outlook wildly different than the second. Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June and could potentially return late in the 2024 campaign, depending on how his rehab goes. The club also signed Tyler Mahle just yesterday, who is on a similar timeline to deGrom, having undergone his own TJS procedure in May.

That means the club could welcome each of Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom back to the club over the course of 2024, but none of them will factor into the Opening Day rotation. For now, that leaves them with Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning as healthy options for the start of the season. Options for the back end would include Cody Bradford or Owen White, though they could also pursue external additions in the weeks to come.

This will likely give the club some interesting calculations to make. Last month, general manager Chris Young suggested their spending would likely be more modest this offseason, when compared to the big money they’ve recently thrown around on those aforementioned pitchers as well as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Although the club just won the World Series and surely banked some extra playoff money, there’s uncertainty around their broadcast revenues due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the owner of the Bally Sports network. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently at $233MM, per Roster Resource, just barely below next year’s base threshold of $237MM.

Rosenthal took a look at their situation earlier today, noting that the club was still interested in Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery and is yet another pitcher slated for a midseason return. That column came out before the Scherzer news, so it’s unknown if the club would still want to use its limited payroll room to bring in yet another pitcher that will miss the first half of the season.

But Rosenthal also adds that, if ownership becomes more comfortable with adding payroll, they could pivot to a reunion with Jordan Montgomery or one of the top starters on the trading block. Even with Glasnow seemingly headed to the Dodgers, pitchers like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes could be available for the right price.

If the club plans to stick with their conservative offseason, it may involve taking a risk on having limited pitching depth in the first half while banking on the returns of those injured guys for a strong second half push. But improving that depth might require them to alter their spending plans and/or go into luxury tax territory.

Rangers Sign Tyler Mahle To Two-Year Deal

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The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.

Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.

That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.

While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.

Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.

If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.

Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.

Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.

The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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