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Taking Inventory 2017

Taking Inventory: New York Mets

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This is the 11th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds, Braves, Tigers, and Marlins.

The Mets never expected to be in a selling position this year, but underperformance and a spate of significant injuries have destroyed any hopes of contention. Were it not for the runaway NL Wild Card race, New York might still have hope of staying in the hunt, but as things stand it seems quite likely they’ll move a few veterans.

Let’s see what’s in the cupboard for the Mets:

Rentals

Addison Reed, RH Reliever | Salary: $7.75MM

Reed has completely turned his career around since landing in New York in 2015. He has given up a few more home runs this season than he did in his dominant 2016 campaign, but otherwise has been much the same pitcher. With 9.2 K/9 (13.9% swinging-strike rate) and just 1.2 BB/9, Reed is thriving even as he has lost half a tick on his average fastball velocity. It probably doesn’t hurt that he’s back to working in the closer’s role, too. All things considered, Reed is quite possibly the club’s biggest trade chip.

Jay Bruce, OF | Salary: $13MM

Bruce only just turned 30 and is posting a strong .270/.339/.543 slash on the season, with twenty long balls already in the bank through just seventy games. He doesn’t run like he used to, but Bruce has received positive defensive grades this year after several seasons of questionable glovework.

Curtis Granderson, OF | Salary: $15MM

That’s quite a lot of coin for a 36-year-old corner outfielder who’s only hitting near the league average. But Granderson can also still play some center and has gotten hotter and hotter at the plate as the season has progressed. The respected veteran could be quite a useful piece for the right team.

Lucas Duda, 1B | Salary: $7.25MM

If there’s enough demand, Duda could potentially bring back something interesting. He has returned to posting strong on-base and slugging numbers after a lost 2016 season, and would represent a middle-of-the-order bat for a contender.

Neil Walker, 2B | Salary: $17.2MM

If he can make it back from a hamstring tear before the deadline, Walker could draw real interest. The veteran remains a quality hitter and was on a tear when he got hurt. That said, demand doesn’t figure to be strong at second base, and the big salary will present an obstacle.

Fernando Salas, RH Reliever | Salary: $3MM

He seemed like a solid value after a strong finish last year with the Mets, but Salas has struggled badly in 2017. Teams may still take a shot since he’s generating strikeouts (9.9 per nine) with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate. While his walks are way up, Salas has been unfortunate to carry a 5.88 ERA; he’s being tagged for a .357 BABIP and has stranded just 64% of the runners to reach base against him.

Jose Reyes, INF | Salary: $535K

The meager salary is nice, but Reyes just isn’t producing. After turning in a solid part-year with the stick in 2016, Reyes currently owns a meager .191/.266/.323 batting line — due in some part, at least, to a .202 batting average on balls in play. Though he runs well, his defense is a bit shaky. With the stain of a domestic violence suspension also potentially a factor, it’s not clear that there’ll be any real market here.

Rene Rivera, C | Salary: $1.75MM

The 33-year-old is a respected defender who is slashing a respectable .268/.305/.423 over his 131 plate appearances on the year. While he’s obviously not the sort of player who’s going to draw a major return, he could hold appeal to a contending team in need of some depth behind the dish.

Controlled Through 2018

Jerry Blevins, LH Reliever | Salary: $5.5MM; $7MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2018

Like Reed, the 33-year-old has never looked better than he has when pitching out of the Mets’ pen. He’s currently setting down 13.0 batters per nine via strikeout with a 14.1% swinging-strike rate that’s easily his personal best. Blevins is also hitting the zone much less frequently than usual while battling through a league-leading 39 appearances. His value is enhanced quite a bit by the reasonably priced option year; the Mets have plenty of leverage, too, since they’d no doubt like to have him at that rate.

Asdrubal Cabrera, INF | Salary: $8.25MM; $8.5MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2018

After publicly requesting a trade and airing some complaints about the team’s handling of his move off of shortstop, it’s no longer clear that Cabrera is in the Mets’ 2018 plans. At the same time, he’s not exactly at the height of his appeal as a trade chip. While he’s still hitting in range of his typically slightly-above-average rate, Cabrera isn’t a great baserunner or defender.

Longer-Term Assets

It seems rather unlikely that the Mets will really go out looking for deals for any longer-term pieces, at least for core players such as Yoenis Cespedes and Jacob deGrom. Pitchers Josh Edgin, Hansel Robles, and Rafael Montero could conceivably end up changing hands, though none seem likely to be targeted by contenders. Juan Lagares could hold some appeal, but he’s probably slated for some kind of timeshare in center at Citi Field next season. It’s anyone’s guess just how things will turn out with Matt Harvey in the long run, but he’s on the DL at present with another fairly significant arm injury.

Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

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This is the 10th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds, Braves and Tigers.

While the Marlins have played better of late, they face an uphill climb just to get to within striking distance of postseason contention. The signs point to moving some veteran assets, but there’s also a significant complication. As ownership continues to explore a sale of the team, it’s unclear how that process could bear on the decisions at the trade deadline. One thing is for certain: Adeiny Hechavarria looks to be on the way out the door in the next day or so, with the Rays standing as the rumored front-runner to acquire his services. That move is reportedly driven by an ownership push to clear his salary, so perhaps Jeffrey Loria will continue to shed payroll in the weeks to come.

Here are the Miami players who’ll likely draw some trade consideration:

Rentals

Dustin McGowan, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.75MM

The 35-year-old McGowan has revived his career with the Marlins over the past two seasons, tossing a combined 107 innings of 2.78 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of nearly 53 percent. McGowan’s velocity is down this season, but his control has improved as well. A team in need of middle relief help wouldn’t have to part with much to pick him up.

A.J. Ellis, C | Salary: $2.5MM

Ellis hasn’t played much this year, totaling just 63 plate appearances, and in that time he’s batted .200 with a .290 OBP and no extra-base hits. Barring a revival of some sort at the dish, which will be difficult with such limited playing time, he’s unlikely to generate much interest.

Controlled Through 2018

Adeiny Hechavarria, SS | Salary: $4.35MM, arb-eligible 2018

As previously noted, Hechavarria seems decidedly likely to move in the next day or so. The Marlins reportedly are hoping to move him before Tuesday’s series opener, when he’d have to be activated from the DL and would force a corresponding roster move. The Rays and Padres are among the teams currently linked to him, but Hechavarria’s salary and lack of offense should limit the return.

Edinson Volquez, RHP (starter) | Salary: $9MM in 2017, $13MM in 2018

After a terrible start to the season, Volquez has turned it on. His turnaround was highlighted by a June 3 no-hitter against a stacked Diamondbacks lineup, but Volquez was pitching fairly well even before that outing. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA with a 44-to-27 K/BB ratio across his past nine starts, spanning 54 2/3 innings. Volquez is an innings-eater at worst and a slightly above-average starter at best, and his contract, while not a bargain, isn’t outlandish.

David Phelps, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $4.6MM in 2017, arb-eligible 2018

The 30-year-old Phelps broke out as a dominant late-inning weapon for the Marlins in 2016, and while he hasn’t been quite as good in 2017, he’s still a highly desirable bullpen piece. Through 34 innings this season, he’s posted a 3.65 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against an improved 3.4 BB/9 and a 44.9 percent ground-ball rate. And dating back to last season, Phelps has a 2.69 ERA in 123 2/3 innings. Phelps has experience as a starter, including five starts in 2016, so he can definitely handle a multi-inning role. Some teams may even have interest in trying him in the rotation once again.

Tom Koehler, RHP (starter) | Salary: $5.75MM, arb-eligible 2018

The Marlins have reportedly been open to trading Koehler for roughly a month. The righty is currently in Triple-A after a brutal start to the season (7.28 ERA in 38 1/3 innings), and he’s allowed just two runs with a 22-to-5 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings there. Koehler, 30, is hardly teeming with upside, but from 2013-16 he logged a perfectly respectable 4.14 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. His 2017 performance has probably torpedoed his modest trade value, but Koehler has a fourth starter’s track record and wouldn’t require any notable young talent to acquire.

Brad Ziegler, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $7MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018

Miami’s highest-profile bullpen addition of the offseason, Ziegler has been surprisingly ineffective in 2017 and is currently on the disabled list with a back injury. Ziegler’s ground-ball rate remains elite, and he’s inducing more pop-ups in 2017 as well. But, his strikeout and walk rates have both gone in the wrong direction, and his combination of salary and injury makes it difficult to envision a move at this juncture.

AJ Ramos, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.55MM in 2017, arb-eligible 2018

The Marlins’ closer since 2015, Ramos routinely posts gaudy strikeout totals with questionable control. That’s truer than ever in 2017, as he’s currently sporting a career-high 12.2 K/9 against a lackluster 4.9 BB/9. The 30-year-old’s strikeout rate and reasonable salary should create some trade value if Miami looks to move him, though it’s interesting that the Nationals, perhaps baseball’s most bullpen-needy contender, reportedly don’t have all that much interest.

Junichi Tazawa, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5MM in 2017, $7MM in 2018

Like Ziegler, Tazawa inked a two-year deal in Miami as a free agent this winter but has been a bust to this point in the season. Tazawa’s 6.88 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 27.5 percent ground-ball rates are all career-worsts. Right now, he looks more like a DFA candidate than a trade candidate, though he did just return from a month-long stint on the DL, so perhaps he can get back on track now that he’s been deemed healthier. Those numbers, after all, come in a sample of just 17 innings, so it won’t take too long for Tazawa to turn the tide.

Jeff Locke, LHP (starter/reliever) | Salary: $3.025MM, arb-eligible 2018

Non-tendered by the Pirates this past winter, Locke signed a one-year deal with the Fish and missed the first two months of the year with tendinitis in his biceps. He’s healthy now but hasn’t looked much better than he did prior to this offseason’s non-tender. Through 23 2/3 innings, Locke has a 20-to-9 K/BB ratio with an improved 53.8 percent ground-ball rate. He does have a history of serviceable work as a fifth starter and can probably be had for little more than salary relief.

Controlled Through 2019

Marcell Ozuna, OF | Salary: $3.5MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2019

Ozuna may be the best combination of trade value and actual plausibility of a trade. Ozuna has just two years of control left and a price tag that should soar in arbitration thanks to a career year in ’17, so the Marlins may look to cash in and acquire a haul in return for his bat this summer. Through 74 games/316 plate appearances, Ozuna has hit .319/.383/.575 with 20 homers and 13 doubles. He’s already just three big flies short of his career-high and looks like a virtual lock to clear 30 homers this year. On top of that, Ozuna is capable of playing center field and has played considerably above-average defense in left field thus far in 2017 (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +4.4 Ultimate Zone Rating). If he’s moved this summer, the Marlins would likely be selling near his peak value.

Martin Prado, 3B | $11.5MM in 2017, $28.5MM through 2019

Re-signed prior to hitting the open market last year, Prado has missed time this season with a pair of hamstring injuries. He’s batted just .278/.301/.392 in 83 plate appearances even when healthy, the Marlins are known to love his clubhouse presence, and his remaining salary looks untradeable at the moment. All of that is to say, Prado seems likely to stay in Miami for now.

Tyler Moore, 1B/OF | $1MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2019

Moore has belted six homers in a tiny sample of 81 plate appearances while posting an overall .263/.284/.566 batting line. The Marlins picked him up on a minor league deal this winter, and he’s already cleared waivers once. Moore is the type of asset that is routinely flipped for cash or a player to be named later, and he could potentially help another team’s bench in 2017.

Longer-Term Assets

Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Barraclough, Justin Bour, Dan Straily, Derek Dietrich, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley

Stanton may find his way into some trade rumors this summer, but the reality is that he’s still guaranteed a total of $295MM through the 2027 season and can opt out of his contract following the 2020 campaign. It’s exceptionally difficult to imagine any club taking that contract on, and even if the Marlins find a team that’s interested (and/or if they agree to pay down a huge portion of the deal), Stanton has a full no-trade clause as well. If the Marlins sell, there will be tons of speculation, but Stanton is likely staying put.

Yelich, on the other hand, doesn’t have a no-trade clause but would come with an enormous price tag in a trade a cost-controlled young star on an affordable deal. His offense is down in 2017, but he’s still drawing walks and is actually striking out less than in recent years. Yelich has spent his whole career playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly environment yet still owns a lifetime .289/.366/.424 triple slash in the Majors, to say nothing of quality baserunning skills and excellent left field defense (though he’s playing center in 2017). Yelich is still just 25 years old and is owed $44.5MM from 2018-2021, and his contract has an option for the 2022 season as well.

Gordon, meanwhile, isn’t producing as he did in 2015, though he’s still a nightmare for opposing pitchers on the basepaths and an above-average defender at second base. He’ll earn $38MM from 2018-20 and has an option for the 2021 season, though teams will undoubtedly be a bit wary of Gordon following last year’s PED suspension.

As was the case for the Reds in 2017, Straily has beaten expectations and proven to be a bright spot in the rotation. He boasts a 3.43 ERA with career-best K/9 (9.2) and BB/9 (2.9) rates in addition to a 38.1 percent ground-ball rate. Straily is still controlled through 2020, and though his .259 BABIP looks like it’s due for regression, it’s actually right in line with his career .255 mark. He’s likely improved his trade stock in Miami, and he’ll be arb-eligible for just the first time this winter.

It’s tough to see the Marlins having much interest in moving either Realmuto or Bour, both of whom are healthy, playing terrifically, and are controlled through the 2020 season. Each will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and should maintain an affordable salary. Barraclough is a bit easier to envision simply due to his control issues and the volatile nature of relievers, but he’s controlled through 2021 and has posted some of baseball’s best strikeout numbers since debuting in 2015.

Dietrich was an above-average bat (.261/.355/.427) without much defensive value from 2014-16, but now he’s not hitting, either. As such, it’s difficult to envision him garnering much interest, though maybe a team in need of a bench piece would be intrigued by his track record and look to buy low. Chen, meanwhile, is completely immovable due to the $52MM remaining on his deal from 2018-20 and a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament that might not allow him to pitch again this season. Conley has pitched to a 7.53 ERA in the Majors this year and a similarly troublesome 6.42 mark in Triple-A. He’s still in his pre-arbitration years, so Miami wouldn’t get any cost savings from dealing him.

Taking Inventory: Detroit Tigers

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This is the ninth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds and Braves.

The Tigers entered the 2017 campaign with the seemingly realistic goal of contending for a playoff spot, but their season has gone off the rails in recent weeks. Losers of eight straight, the Tigers own the American League’s worst record (32-42) and sit seven games out of a wild-card spot and 7.5 games behind AL Central-leading Cleveland. With the trade deadline approaching, Detroit looks like a seller in the making, which general manager Al Avila essentially admitted earlier this week when he indicated he’d listen to teams’ offers for his veteran players.

Rentals

J.D. Martinez, RF | Salary: $11.75MM

As an impending free agent in the midst of his fourth straight excellent season at the plate, the 29-year-old Martinez stands out as the Tigers’ most obvious trade chip. A foot injury suffered in spring training kept Martinez out of action until May, but he has returned to slash a red-hot .288/.373/.626 with 12 home runs and a .338 ISO in 161 plate appearances. While those power numbers will regress (he slugged .540 and posted a .241 ISO from 2014-16), Martinez will remain a significant offensive threat when they do. Few major leaguers are hitting the ball harder than Martinez this year, per Statcast (via Baseball Savant), and he’s also running what’s easily a career-high walk rate (12.4 percent). Dating back to last season, Martinez has been rather weak in the field, where he registered minus-22 defensive runs saved and a minus-17.2 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016 (and has already been worth minus-5 DRS this year). Despite that, teams in need of an offensive jolt will show pre-deadline interest in the reasonably priced slugger.

Alex Avila, C | Salary: $2MM

As impressive as Martinez’s batted-ball numbers are, Avila’s might be even better. The resurgent 30-year-old, who’s the son of Detroit’s GM, trails only Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano in average exit velocity (93.9 mph) and paces the majors in rate of balls hit at least 95 mph (62 percent). That has led to a ridiculous .320/.438/.588 line in 185 PAs for the lefty-swinging Avila, who has emerged as one of the newest poster boys in baseball’s fly ball revolution. Avila’s fly ball rate has nearly doubled since last season (from 22.8 percent to 41 percent), and he has cut down on strikeouts while managing an elite-level walk rate for the third straight year. As with Martinez, some regression is in order (Avila won’t sustain a .433 batting average on balls in play, for instance), and Avila’s pitch-framing numbers leave plenty to be desired on the defensive side. But the onetime All-Star’s offensive revival looks worthy of betting on, especially given his cheap salary. A contender like the Red Sox could clearly use more offensive production from behind the plate, and their president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, is quite familiar with Avila after previously serving as the Tigers’ GM.

Controlled Through 2018

Ian Kinsler, 2B | Salary: $11MM in 2017; $10MM club option (or a $5MM buyout) in 2018

It would make sense for the Tigers to shop the 35-year-old Kinsler, who’s amid another solid season, but moving him won’t be easy. He can block deals to 10 teams, for one, and wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade rights over the winter unless a contract extension came with it. Also, barring injuries, it doesn’t look as if second basemen will be in high demand prior to the deadline.

Justin Wilson, RP | Salary: $2.7MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018

Teams might not line up for Kinsler should he land on the block, but given the ever-increasing importance of bullpens in today’s game, the same won’t be true for Wilson if the Tigers shop him. The 29-year-old left-hander took over for the just-released Francisco Rodriguez as Detroit’s closer earlier in the season, and while save opportunities have been scarce, Wilson has still offered quality production when the team has turned to him. After averaging more than a strikeout per inning in each season from 2014-16, Wilson’s K/9 has increased to a career-best 12.84, and he’s running a palatable 2.96 ERA/3.50 FIP/3.58 xFIP trio. There are some concerns here, including an elevated walk rate (3.95 per nine, up from 2.61 last season) and a career-low ground-ball percentage (35.0, down from 54.9 in 2016), but effective, low-priced relievers who throw hard are hot commodities.

Jose Iglesias, SS | Salary: $4.1MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018

It’s unclear whether the Tigers will market Iglesias. If they do, though, the Marlins’ return for the on-the-block Adeiny Hechavarria will be worth watching for Detroit. Hechavarria is a similar player to Iglesias and comes with matching team control and a nearly identical salary (Hechavarria makes $4.35MM). Like Hechavarria, Iglesias is a defense-first shortstop, though the latter was once a league-average hitter. That has changed over the past two seasons, as the 27-year-old Iglesias has combined to bat just .255/.306/.366 with four homers across 513 PAs. To his credit, Iglesias has saved 12 runs (including nine already this year) and posted a 16.3 UZR over that time.

Longer-Term Assets

Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Shane Greene, Alex Wilson

Of the three-high priced names on this list (Upton, Cabrera and Verlander), Upton is the only one with iffy team control status. At the end of the season, the left fielder will have the chance to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his contract, which won’t do his trade value any favors. The 29-year-old Upton has rebounded from a disappointing 2016, his first season in Detroit, to slash .268/.354/.496 with 14 long balls in 288 trips to the plate to perhaps make an opt-out a bit more realistic than it previously looked. The odds of a trade, on the other hand, appear remote.

Cabrera and Verlander are on even larger salaries than Upton over the next several years, and both have earned full no-trade rights. Those factors make potential trades complicated enough, but when you add in that both are 34 and now look downright mortal relative to their usual selves, in-season deals for either probably aren’t happening.

It’s debatable whether the Tigers should shop Greene or Wilson (or any other inexpensive assets), as they’ll need cheap contributors to step up in their forthcoming efforts to cut spending. Avila did listen to offers for Greene last winter, though, and he could continue to pique bullpen-needy teams’ interest as a hard thrower who’s making a near-minimum salary and comes with three arbitration-eligible years of control. Greene, 28, has pitched to a 3.57 ERA and posted 9.68 K/9 against 4.58 BB/9, with a 46.7 percent grounder rate, over 35 1/3 innings this season. Wilson also carries some appeal as a high-velocity righty with an affordable salary this season ($1.175MM) and two arb-eligible years. He doesn’t bring Greene’s bat-missing ability to the table, but the 30-year-old Wilson has survived a below-average K/9 (5.77) during his 230 2/3-inning career to post a 2.93 ERA (3.69 this season).

Taking Inventory: Atlanta Braves

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This is the eighth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, and Reds.

Entering today’s action, the Braves sat in a tie for the second spot in the National League East. Had they been asked before the season, the organization would’ve been thrilled to learn that fate. But the sheen is decidedly lessened by the context: Atlanta still sits six games under .500 and is more than ten games out of a postseason spot of any kind.

Despite the placement in the standings, then, the Braves are highly likely to be in a position to sell at the trade deadline. That doesn’t mean, though, that the club will be terribly willing to consider dealing its more controllable players. It doesn’t even necessarily mean that certain veterans will be sold off for a reasonable return. And it’s still possible that Atlanta will at least look into dealing away some prospects to acquire an established starter with long-term control. With the organization determined to embark upon real contention in 2018, and to leave a good impression on fans even as the excitement of a new ballpark begins to wear off, a major tear-down isn’t likely.

Let’s take a look at some of the possible trade assets on the MLB roster:

Rentals

Jaime Garcia, SP | Salary: $12MM

Garcia looks to be the class of the Atlanta rental crop. He’s through 82 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA, so he has been both healthy and effective. While the southpaw is producing less strikeouts (6.5 per nine) and more walks (3.4 per nine), he’s running a 56.5% groundball mate that’s an exact match for his career mark. It’s unlikely Garcia will be viewed as a mid-3.00 pitcher at the deadline, and he’s likely due for a bit of regression before that point, but he ought to hold real appeal.

Bartolo Colon, SP | Salary: $12.5MM

Colon’s pinpoint command just hasn’t been there in his age-44 season. He’s working at nearly double the average walk rate he carried over the prior five seasons and has been in the zone just 43.5% of the time (against a 52.4% career average). That is perhaps showing up in other ways, too, as Colon hasn’t allowed this frequency of long balls since he was pitching for the Angels. There’s likely also some poor fortune baked in the hefty .353 BABIP opposing hitters are carrying against Colon, as well as his meager 48.5% strand rate, but at this point he has minimal trade value after 59 innings of 7.78 ERA ball.

Brandon Phillips, 2B | Salary: $1MM (remainder of $14MM salary paid by Reds)

Phillips carries an attractive .306/.351/.431 batting line, but that’ll drift back as his .342 BABIP faded. Since he’s no longer an elite defender, Phillips just doesn’t profile as a first-division regular. That said, he’s cheap and comes with plenty of experience, so it’s easy to imagine interest — though it’s anybody’s guess whether he’d be happy playing in a bench role.

Kurt Suzuki, C | Salary: $1.5MM

The veteran receiver has been dealt twice at the deadline before (and probably should have been a third time). He’s swinging a pretty good stick for a catcher — .227/.342/.402 through 118 plate appearances — and could fill a gap for an organization that ends up thin at the position.

Jason Motte, RP | Salary: $535K (remainder of $5MM salary paid by Rockies)

As his 35th birthday approaches, Motte owns a seemingly resurgent 1.86 ERA. But even a quick glance behind the results shows that it’s likely a mirage. He is averaging less than six strikeouts per nine with 3.7 BB/9 while benefiting from a very low BABIP (.192) and 100% strand rate. It’s still imaginable another club will like how he’s throwing the ball, but the offers may not be significant enough to make it worth it for the Braves to make a move.

Controlled Through 2018

Jim Johnson, RP | Salary: $5MM in 2017; $5MM in 2018

Atlanta could have a somewhat difficult decision to make on Johnson, who is pitching quite well but might also help solidify the back of the bullpen next year. He’s generating a 9.7% swinging-strike rate — best of his career — to complement his typically excellent groundball induction efforts (56.0% groundball rate, currently). Johnson profiles as a setup man on a contending team, which could have a fair bit of value.

Nick Markakis, OF | Salary: $11MM in 2017; $11MM in 2018

The veteran keeps on posting roughly league average offensive seasons, so you generally know what you’re going to get. Currently, he’s getting on base at a nice clip (.371) but showing a total lack of power (.092 isolated slugging). Unless the Braves are willing to pay down quite a bit of money, it’s hard to see rival organizations getting too excited at that profile from an older corner outfielder.

R.A. Dickey, SP | Salary: $8MM in 2017; $8MM club option ($500K buyout) in 2018

Dickey is outperforming Colon, but that’s about where the plaudits end. He owns a 5.35 ERA through 77 1/3 innings, with his strikeout and walk rates each heading in the wrong direction. Dickey’s 7.6% swinging-strike rate is the lowest he has carried since his Cy Young campaign. All said, it’s hard to see where the interest would come from, and the Braves might hold in case a second-half turnaround makes the option appealing.

Tyler Flowers, C | Salary: $3MM in 2017; $4MM club option ($300K buyout) in 2018

After a strong offensive season in 2016, Flowers has opened the current year with a blistering .333/.435/.473 slash. There are lots of reasons to think that won’t last, but the 31-year-old doesn’t need to hit at that pace to be a significant offensive threat for a catcher. He’ll likely draw some interest, but Atlanta needs a catcher for 2018 and seems likely to hold.

Matt Adams, 1B | Salary: $2.8MM; arb-eligible in 2018

The 28-year-old has thrived since finding a second chance in Atlanta, though his overall profile as a hitter hasn’t changed much. It’s not clear there’ll be a ton of demand, though it’s also not clear what the Braves will do with Adams once Freddie Freeman returns.

Longer-Term Assets

Julio Teheran, Matt Kemp, Arodys Vizcaino

Plenty of sub-.500 teams have interesting calls to make on controllable veterans, but it’s not clear that holds true for Atlanta. Freeman is hurt and wouldn’t be dealt anyway. (Neither will Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson.) Teheran is back on the downturn after a strong 2016 and is needed for the future anyway with multiple rotation spots unaccounted for past this season. Though Kemp is mashing, he has had some injury troubles and still looks like a defensive liability; plus, the Braves don’t have replacements lined up and surely like the idea of carrying him as a middle-of-the-order star heading into 2018.

And then there’s Vizcaino, who may be the most likely of this group to be traded at the deadline. He’s throwing well again, with a 1.93 ERA and 10.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 through 28 frames, and the Braves control him for only two more years. There’s surely no need for Atlanta to push the flamethrower out the door, but it may be worth cashing in on a somewhat volatile asset if there’s a good enough offer on the table.

Taking Inventory: Cincinnati Reds

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This is the seventh entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants and Padres.

After entering the season expected to finish as one of the majors’ worst teams, the Reds got off to a hot start and then hung around .500 through late May. But since holding a 19-15 mark on May 11, the Reds have lost 24 of 34 to fall to 29-39 and plummet to last place in the National League Central. Now, with the trade deadline approaching, they look like surefire sellers.

Rentals

Zack Cozart, SS | Salary: $5.325MM

There are questions regarding how much demand there will be for shortstops at this year’s deadline, which could hinder the Reds’ efforts to net a quality return for Cozart. Nevertheless, the impending free agent has done his part to drive up his value. The 31-year-old served as a roughly league-average player from 2012-16, but he’s now in the midst of a shockingly great season. Cozart has slashed .320/.404/.562 across 255 plate appearances. Thanks to that output and his typically effective work in the field (four Defensive Runs Saved, 8.5 UZR/150), he’s tied with three established superstars – Joey Votto (his teammate), Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts – and Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks for fourth among position players in fWAR (2.9). That figure represents a career best for Cozart, whose trade value could increase if interested teams feel he can play another position. The Red Sox, for example, are set at shortstop but have a glaring need at third base. Cozart has spent his entire career at short since debuting in 2011.

Drew Storen, RP | Salary: $3MM

Realizing they weren’t going to compete this year, it’s fair to say the Reds signed Storen with the goal of flipping him at the deadline. The 29-year-old has pitched well enough this season to make that a real possibility, having recorded a 2.45 ERA, 7.67 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 and a stellar 54.1 percent ground-ball rate in 29 1/3 innings. Storen’s velocity has continued on a downward plane, and his ERA estimators aren’t nearly as kind as his actual run prevention numbers (3.82 FIP, 4.00 SIERA, 4.71 xFIP), but it’s a good bet that some playoff hopeful(s) will want the former closer.

Scott Feldman, SP/RP | Salary: $2.3MM

As with Storen, Feldman has seemed like a very short-term Band-Aid for the Reds since the minute they took a cheap flyer on him in the offseason. While Feldman, 34, has emerged as the ace of the Reds’ staff this year, that merely indicates how poor and injury plagued their rotation has been. To Feldman’s credit, he has performed like a bona fide back-end type, with a 4.29 ERA/ 4.28 FIP, 7.18 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9 over 77 2/3 frames. Feldman’s probably not going to interest playoff contenders searching for mid-rotation starters, but he could garner looks from teams that want someone to competently soak up innings from the rotation and/or the bullpen down the stretch. That was the case at the deadline last year, when the postseason-bound Blue Jays sent a teenage pitcher, Lupe Chavez, to the Astros for Feldman.

Controlled Through 2018

Devin Mesoraco, C | Salary: $7.325MM in 2017; $13.125MM in 2018

Mesoraco broke out in 2014, hitting .273/.359/.534 with 25 home runs, leading the Reds to sign the offense-first backstop to a four-year, $28MM extension. Little went right over the next two years for Mesoraco, whom injuries limited to 106 PAs and a woeful .158/.245/.500 line with no homers. Mesoraco became somewhat of an afterthought as a result, but the 28-year-old has quietly rebounded this season to slash .235/.343/.518 with six homers and career highs in walk rate (12.1 percent) and isolated power (.282) across 99 trips to the plate. That’s an admittedly small sample, though, and it’s debatable how much in-season trade value he’d have as a somewhat expensive player fresh off a couple of lost years.

Blake Wood, RP | Salary: $1.275MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018

The 31-year-old righty was decent last year, his first with the Reds, and has contributed respectable production again this season. The hard-throwing Wood entered Sunday ranked ninth among relievers in grounder rate (60.9 percent), and he’s currently running a career-best 3.63 ERA through 34 2/3 frames. Wood has also registered acceptable strikeout (9.09) and walk (4.15) rates per nine. With all of that considered, it’s easy to imagine a bullpen-needy playoff contender with a capable infield defense and/or a small ballpark having interest in the grounder-heavy, inexpensive Wood.

Longer-Term Assets

Joey Votto, 1B; Raisel Iglesias, RP; Billy Hamilton, CF; Adam Duvall, OF; Scott Schebler, OF; Eugenio Suarez, 3B; Anthony DeSclafani, SP; Brandon Finnegan, SP; Scooter Gennett, IF/OF; Michael Lorenzen, RP; Wandy Peralta, RP

Votto, who inked a 10-year, $225MM contract extension in 2012, is both the Reds’ most expensive player and the crown jewel of the franchise. The potential Hall of Famer is enjoying yet another all-world season and would improve most (or all) big-spending contenders’ situations at first base. Votto has a no-trade clause, though, and suggested over the winter that he’d like to mimic retired San Antonio Spurs superstar Tim Duncan and the New England Patriots’ Tom Brady by playing his entire career in one place. Before that, Reds general manager Dick Williams stated he hadn’t had any discussions with Votto about waiving his no-trade clause. The reality is, Votto’s not going anywhere.

The rest of the Reds’ longer-term assets are probably safe bets to at least last the season in Cincinnati. Of course, there was interest this past offseason in Hamilton, whose fading team control (he’s signed through 2019) could make him a legitimate trade candidate soon. The 26-year-old has continued his light-hitting ways this season, but the baserunning brilliance and defensive excellence that have made him valuable throughout his career remain intact.

Hamilton’s outfield mates, Duvall and Schebler, are much different players than the speedster. But the two sluggers have turned into real finds for Cincinnati and emerged as viable regulars. The 26-year-old Schebler isn’t even eligible for arbitration until 2020, while Duvall (28) won’t go through the arb process until 2019. Given both their cheap control and production, the two corner outfielders would likely warrant quality returns in trades, but there’s no indication the Reds are interested in moving either player.

Similarly, both Suarez and Gennett have been solid pickups for the Reds, with the former in the midst of what could be a breakout year and the latter having recently turned in the first four-home run game in team history. That was an anomaly for Gennett (as it would be for any player, but especially one who has never been much of a power threat), who’s nonetheless in the midst of a nice season and previously put up a couple league-average campaigns in Milwaukee. Although the 27-year-old Gennett joined the Reds via waivers at the end of March, he has probably at least built some trade value since then. The utilityman’s affordable this season ($2.525MM) and controllable through 2019. Suarez is under wraps through 2020 and currently on a near-minimum salary ($595K), but the 25-year-old seems a lot likelier than Gennett to be part of the Reds’ long-term core. Assuming Cozart doesn’t stick around, Suarez could shift to shortstop (his previous position) when highly touted third base prospect Nick Senzel eventually comes up to the majors.

Elsewhere, the Reds have several young starting pitchers, but DeSclafani and Finnegan stand out as the most promising. A sprained ulnar collateral ligament has kept DeSclafani out all season, however, and he might not debut until August. Finnegan, meanwhile, has been out since April on account of a shoulder issue. While he’ll be back sooner than DeSclafani, the Reds aren’t going to sell low on either of these two this season.

Conversely, the Reds would be selling high on some of their top bullpen assets – Iglesias, Lorenzen and Peralta. Iglesias has turned into a premier reliever since shifting from the Reds’ rotation last season, and the 27-year-old signed a very reasonable contract with the club in 2014 after fleeing his native Cuba. Of course, Iglesias only went to the bullpen in the first place because of shoulder problems, so there’s a case to be made that Cincinnati should at least listen to any offers that might come in for the dominant righty prior to the deadline. While Lorenzen and Peralta aren’t on Igleslias’ level, they’re good and cheap. The former won’t hit arbitration for the first time until the upcoming offseason and the latter is a pre-arb player through the 2019 campaign. Each of these 25-year-olds would intrigue teams looking for relievers, but there’s nothing to suggest that Williams is going to put either on the block.

Taking Inventory: San Diego Padres

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This is the sixth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

After trading Derek Norris this past offseason, the part of the Padres’ rebuild that involved trading away veterans to shed salary and/or make room for younger players had come to an end. But that didn’t close the door on general manager A.J. Preller’s ability to wheel and deal during the 2017 season. By signing a quartet of free agent starting pitchers to help bridge the gap until the team’s younger pitchers were ready to contribute—Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver were each signed to one-year deals for a combined total of $8.25MM— they also added some potential trade chips to go along with any other players on the roster with less than three years of club control.

With three of the four veteran starters having established some trade value and several other players expected to draw strong interest, the only question is how long Preller waits before pulling the trigger on his first trade of 2017. Let’s break down who could become available…

Rentals

Clayton Richard, LHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

Richard has had a career resurgence since joining the Padres last August, posting a 3.64 ERA over 141.2 innings. The 33-year-old was one out away from a complete game shutout on Tuesday before allowing a 2-run double on his 127th pitch of the game. It was the third time this season he’s flirted with that rare feat. He allowed one earned run in a complete game win against the D’backs on May 21st and pitched eight shutout innings against the Dodgers in his 2017 debut in April. He’s also completed at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. A reliable lefty starter who can pitch deep into games can be very useful on a playoff contender.

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

Aside from three disastrous starts, which account for 23 earned runs over 10 innings, Chacin has been pretty good for the Padres. The 29-year-old hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his other 10 starts and has completed at least six innings on eight different occasions. A reunion with the Rockies would make a lot of sense as their young pitching staff will need some help down the stretch.

Trevor Cahill, RHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

A pair of disabled list stints due to back and shoulder injuries will likely keep Cahill’s trade value to a minimum, but he’s been impressive in a seven-start sample with a 3.27 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 41.1 innings pitched. If he can return to health—he’s on track to be activated in the next few weeks—the 29-year-old should have at least 4 or 5 starts to showcase his talent to a contending team. He could also draw interest as a reliever based on his strong 2016 season out of the bullpen for the World Champion Cubs.

Erick Aybar, SS | Salary: $1.5MM

There’s not much of a market for shortstops and Aybar has been a disappointment, anyways, with a .215/.282/.328 slash line in 196 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he can be had for very little if a team is looking to add some veteran infield depth. At this rate, he’s more likely to be released than traded.

Craig Stammen, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $900K 

Stammen’s ERA is a bit inflated (4.25) due to a three-appearance stretch in April when he allowed 10 earned runs in three innings. Aside from that, his numbers (36 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9) look very similar to his those he posted as a very effective multi-inning reliever with the Washington Nationals from 2012-2014. The 33-year-old has pitched at least two innings in 10 of his 22 appearances and has held right-handed hitters to a .610 OPS.

 

Controlled Through 2019

Brad Hand, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.375MM (arbitration-eligible this winter)

While there was some early-season trade buzz surrounding Hand after a dominant first month, his more recent struggles—he has a 4.57 ERA over his last 18 appearances with two blown saves and four losses—have most likely scared off any suitors who would’ve been willing to strike early and meet what would’ve been a very high asking price. Still, the 27-year-old has emerged as one of the better lefty setup men in baseball over the past year. The Red Sox were able to flip two-and-a-half months of Andrew Miller for a Top 100 prospect (Eduardo Rodriguez) at the 2014 trade deadline. Hand isn’t Miller, but he’s under team control for two-and-a-half years so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Padres could net a fairly significant return.

Brandon Maurer, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.9MM in 2017, (arbitration-eligible this winter)

Maurer could be a tough sell with his 6.15 ERA, but he’s saved 12 of 14 games, throws a sinking fastball that reaches the upper 90s and is averaging 9.6 K/9. He was also very good after taking over as the Padres’ closer last July, converting 13 of 15 save chances while posting a 3.09 ERA. A team would have to be willing to pay the price for what Maurer has been aside from a handful of bad games—he has a 2.45 ERA if you throw out three awful appearances. Otherwise, the Padres will be happy to hold on to him until at least the upcoming offseason.

Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B | Salary: $2.625MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018, $5.5MM club option for 2019, not eligible for free agency if declined (plus $750K buyout of $8MM club option for 2020)

The 29-year-old, who was rewarded with a two-year contract extension after a breakout season in 2016, has finally heated up after struggling through the first month-and-a-half of 2017. As a result—Solarte is slashing .333/.429/.474 over his last 21 games—trade interest could soon pick up for the switch-hitting infielder. His team-friendly contract, defensive versatility and ability to come through in the clutch—he has a .956 OPS with runners in scoring position—could make him a nice under-the-radar acquisition for a contending team.

 

Longer-Term Assets

Wil Myers, 1B (starter) | Salary: $4.5MM in 2017, $4.5MM in 2018, $5.5MM in 2019, $22.5MM in 2020, 2021 and 2022 (plus $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)

The Padres made it clear that Myers was a player they wanted to build around when they gave him a franchise-record $83MM contract extension in January. That doesn’t mean they’re not willing to listen if a team was interested in trading for the 26-year-old All-Star, who had 29 homers and 28 stolen bases in 2016. Teams probably won’t be willing to take on that big contract, however, until he’s proven that he can be an MVP-caliber player since he’ll be paid like one in a few years. Based on his current slump (.547 OPS, HR, 37 strikeouts in 97 plate appearances), I’m guessing that he’s not quite ready to make the jump from “very good” player to “great” player.

Taking Inventory: Chicago White Sox

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This is the fifth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the Royals, Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

It’s obviously no surprise to see the White Sox lining up as sellers as the trade deadline approaches. Chicago dealt away two of its three best assets over the winter in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and has fallen into the AL Central basement after a decent start to the year.

Rival teams have had plenty of time to peruse the White Sox roster in anticipation of summer dealmaking. Here’s how it looks at present:

Rentals

Todd Frazier, 3B | Salary: $12MM

Though his overall output hasn’t been great this year (or last), Frazier has hit much better of late (.256/.368/.533 in his last 106 plate appearances). His ultimate trade value will hinge upon his performance over the next month and a half, as well as the shape of the market. Demand at third base remains an open question, and there could be some competition if players like Mike Moustakas and David Freese are marketed.

Melky Cabrera, OF/DH | Salary: $15MM

The Melk Man is also trending up after a poor start to the season, and he is also playing on the backdrop of a strong 2016 campaign at the plate. Of course, he’s also earning at a very healthy rate and is rather a poor baserunner and fielder, so there are very real limits to the levels of interest that might be anticipated even if the bat keeps producing.

Anthony Swarzak, RP | Salary: $900K

Plenty of pitchers end up with surprisingly good earned run averages over short samples, but Swarzak was also showing impressive peripherals early on. That has all come to a halt more recently, but that’s not to say that Swarzak won’t still hold some appeal at the trade deadline — especially if he can turn it back on a bit (and particularly for organizations that don’t want to take on salary).

Miguel Gonzalez, SP | Salary: $5.9MM

Gonzalez has allowed a dozen home runs in as many starts and has only managed 5.1 K/9 on the year. Perhaps it’s more likely at this point that he ends up holding down the fort for the rest of the year in Chicago, which may have some innings to account for if other pitchers are dealt.

Derek Holland, SP | Salary: $6MM

While Holland has fared rather well in the earned-run department, allowing 3.79 per nine innings through 73 2/3 frames on the year, there’s also quite a lot of reason for skepticism. ERA estimators are not buying it — 5.35 FIP; 5.08 xFIP; 4.87 SIERA — but perhaps another organization could see cause to add Holland for rotation depth down the stretch.

Mike Pelfrey, SP | Salary: $535K (balance of $8MM salary owed by Tigers)

Like Holland, a palatable (3.88) ERA is masking some bigger issues. The veteran carries just 5.4 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 on the year and has benefited from a .260 batting average on balls in play.

Controlled Through 2018

David Robertson, RP | Salary: $12MM in 2017; $13MM in 2018

The dollars seem increasingly palatable for Robertson, who may end up being the best-performing closer available at the deadline. He has managed to tamp down on last year’s walk issues while running at a career-best 16.6% swinging strike rate. The Sox will likely be willing to hang onto some salary in order to increase the prospect return, which could result in some interesting trade possibilities.

James Shields, SP | Salary: $10MM in 2017; $10MM in 2018 (remainder of $44MM guarantee through 2019 owed by Padres)

The veteran righty proved an ill-advised early trade acquisition last summer for the South Siders. Though he managed a 1.62 ERA through his first three starts of the current season, Shields’s growing control problems worsened and he was clearly benefiting from some good fortune (.150 BABIP; 100% strand rate). Since then, he has been shelved with a lat strain. Shields will return this weekend, though, so he’ll have some time to show off for possible suitors.

Longer-Term Assets

Jose Quintana, SP; Jose Abreu, 1B; Avisail Garcia, OF; Tommy Kahnle, RP; Leury Garcia, OF

This is where things get really interesting for Chicago. Quintana has long been discussed as a significant trade piece, but the White Sox held off on making a deal over the winter in hopes of finding a better return this summer. A rather poor start to the season from Quintana may have scuttled those hopes, though it’s still possible to imagine something coming together if he returns to form over the next six weeks.

It’s tough to gauge the outlook for Abreu, a 30-year-old slugger who’s controlled through 2019. He isn’t going to be particularly cheap now that he has opted into arbitration, and it’s not clear that there’ll be a ton of demand for non-premier first basemen. Abreu is hitting well — .289/.343/.472 with ten home runs through 268 plate appearances — but that’s not the kind of top-end output that would motivate a team to give up significant young assets when more affordable rental players can likely be found.

Garcia, meanwhile, has played himself into an interesting situation. He’s owed just $3MM this year with two more years of control remaining and only just turned 26. While the deeper track record is filled with question marks, he’s slashing /333/.373/.551 through 249 trips to the plate. Of course, Garcia is walking less than ever (3.6%) and is benefiting from a .402 BABIP, so rival organizations will maintain some healthy skepticism.

It’s more likely that the Sox will retain the cheap and controllable Kahnle, who has broken out with a 1.42 ERA and ridiculous 17.2% swinging-strike rate this year, though it’s always possible that the opportunity to cash in on a reliever would be taken. (Fellow setup man Nate Jones looked like a possible trade chip, though he has been out long enough with an elbow injury that it no longer seems very likely.) As for Garcia, who will reach arbitration eligibility next year, it’s questionable whether he can sustain anything like his current .300/.349/.461 output. But he is a solid all-around player who has rated well in center this year and can also play the middle infield, so he could be quite a useful piece for a contender.

Taking Inventory: Kansas City Royals

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This is the fourth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

The Royals entered the 2017 season knowing full well that the majority of their World-Series-winning core was slated to hit free agency. Rather than blow it up this offseason, Kansas City traded only Wade Davis, extended Danny Duffy and then made some low-cost veteran additions to help round out the roster. Many of those moves were made in the wake of tragedy, as the Royals suffered the devastating loss of one of their core pieces this offseason when Yordano Ventura’s life was tragically taken in a car accident.

Unfortunately for Dayton Moore and his staff, their offseaon maneuverings have yet to yield on-field success. Kansas City is 5.5 games out of first place in the American League Central and currently sports Major League Baseball’s fifth-worst run differential (-47). Their 4.38 team ERA ranks 18th in the Majors, and they’re without their top pitcher, Duffy, through at least the All-Star break due to an oblique injury. Kansas City has scored the second-fewest runs in baseball as well, and their collective 80 wRC+ is the game’s third-worst mark.

According to just about any report one reads, the Royals haven’t yet decided to call it quits and are still intent on trying to make one more run. But as the summer wears on, it becomes likelier and likelier that they’ll be forced to begin fielding trade offers. Let’s break down who could become available…

Rentals

Lorenzo Cain, CF | Salary: $11MM

A premium defensive center fielder with plus baserunning skills and an above-average bat, Cain would likely be the most coveted trade asset the Royals have to offer in a potential sale. He’s hitting .265/.345/.412 with six homers (while playing in a pitcher-friendly home park), 12 steals and three to four runs saved with his glove (per Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved). His defensive prowess in center would allow him to play plus defense in an outfield corner, as well, so even contending clubs that already have center field covered could slide him (or the incumbent option) over to left or right.

Eric Hosmer, 1B | Salary: $12.25MM

Hosmer had a terrible second half in 2016 and got off to a slow start in 2017, but he’s reminded everyone why there’s talk of him potentially signing a mega-deal this offseason with his recent play. He’s hitting .314/.363/.469 on the season as a whole, and if you throw out his first 20 games of the season, that slash line jumps to a preposterous .370/.415/.574. That’s admittedly an arbitrary cutoff, and Hosmer has shown to be too ground-ball happy and prone to slumps in the past. But for the past 42 games, he’s been among baseball’s very best hitters, and a club with a void at first base/DH such as the Yankees, Rangers or Mariners (if the latter two end up as buyers) could benefit.

Mike Moustakas, 3B | Salary: $8.7MM

Moustakas missed most of the 2016 season due to a torn ACL, and while there was no way to be certain that he’d return to form in 2017, he’s done that and then some. With 17 homers and a .275/.314/.554 batting line, he’s on his way to the best offensive season of his career. Defensive metrics typically grade Moose as an above-average performer at third base, though they’re a bit mixed in the wake of last season’s knee injury. DRS has him at -3, while UZR has him at +1. At the worst, interested clubs could expect merely passable glovework accompanied by huge production against righties, though Moustakas remains overmatched by left-handed pitchers (.212/.241/.481).

Alcides Escobar, SS | Salary: $6.5MM

Escobar has never been much of an offensive performer, but he’s simply not hitting at all in 2017. With a .180/.205/.234 batting line, he’s been baseball’s least-productive bat (among qualified hitters). However, Escobar remains a gifted defender at a premium position (+2 DRS, +5 UZR) and still runs the bases well. At the least, he could be a bench piece on a contending club.

Mike Minor, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $4MM (plus $1.25MM buyout of $10MM mutual option)

Minor has thrived upon his shift to a bullpen role, embracing relief work with a 2.25 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate through 32 2/3 innings. Lefties have posted a pathetic .125/.205/.175 batting line against him, and right-handers haven’t fared especially well, either (.243/.300/.351). Minor is technically controlled through 2018, but mutual options are so rarely exercised by both parties that he’s best viewed as a pure rental. I do think there’s at least a plausible scenario where both sides pick the option up due to Minor’s excellence but limited ’pen track record and recent health troubles. But, the contracts secured by Mike Dunn and Brett Cecil on last year’s open market suggest that Minor can do better if he continues at this pace.

Jason Vargas, LHP (starter) | Salary: $8MM

I doubt that many are buying Vargas’ sensational 2.18 ERA, but even if he’s still just viewed as the mid-rotation innings eater he’s always been, there’s plenty to like. He’s affordable, has posted modest improvements over his career K/9 and BB/9 rates and looks to have bounced back from the 2015 Tommy John surgery that ultimately cost him the better part of two seasons. Vargas might not be part of a postseason rotation, but he’d be a valuable rotation stabilizer for a team with uncertainty at the back of its starting five.

Peter Moylan, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1MM

Moylan’s ERA is currently residing just north of 7.00 due to the fact that he’s been annihilated by left-handed batters. However, he’s been untouchable against righties, limiting same-handed opponents to a putrid .212/.268/.273 batting line through 71 plate appearances. If used properly, he can be a nice bullpen piece, and he’s certainly affordable from a financial standpoint.

Chris Young, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.75MM (plus $1.25MM buyout of $8MM mutual option)

Young was outstanding with Seattle and Kansas City in 2014-15, but he’s been rocked for a 6.31 ERA over the past 117 innings, and his secondary stats don’t offer much encouragement. He’ll need to improve over the next month-plus to have much in the way of trade value. He could also be an August trade candidate, as his salary is all but a lock to clear waivers.

Controlled Through 2018

Kelvin Herrera, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.325MM (arbitration-eligible this winter)

Herrera looks like one of the best bets to be traded this summer, but his recent performance can’t be helping his stock. Over his past 10 1/3 innings of work, Herrera has allowed 10 earned runs on the strength of three homers. So long as the homer troubles don’t continue, most will probably look past that blip and find plenty to like in the 27-year-old’s 28-to-5 K/BB ratio through 25 1/3 innings. He’s averaging nearly 98 mph and can help out a team for the next year and a half if he returns to form.

Joakim Soria, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $8MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018 (plus $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2019)

Soria’s stock in 2017 is up after a pedestrian campaign in 2016. While his 3.81 ERA isn’t too much of an improvement over last year’s 4.05 mark, Soria has averaged a career-best 12.1 K/9 to complement a career-high 60.3 percent ground-ball rate. His walks are up this season, but his uptick in strikeouts and grounders could portend a drop in his ERA. (FIP, xFIP and SIERA all like him for a sub-3.00 mark.) Given his salary, the Royals may still have to kick in a bit of cash to make him truly appealing, but he’s more marketable than he was last year.

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF | Salary: $3.75MM in 2017, $7.25MM in 2018 (plus $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2019)

It’d be tough to move Moss right now, given his woeful .181/.250/.406 batting line through his first 152 plate appearances as a Royal. He’s striking out in nearly 35 percent of his plate appearances and has become more pull-happy than ever as his hard-hit rate has dropped to its lowest level in the past three seasons. There’s still time for him to improve, but this version of Moss doesn’t carry much value.

Travis Wood, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $4MM in 2017, $6.5MM in 2018 (plus $1MM buyout of $8MM mutual option for 2019)

Like Moss, Wood signed a two-year deal with Kansas City late in free agency and looked like a nice modestly priced addition. Instead, he’s going through the worst season of his Major League career, pitching to an 8.31 ERA with as many walks (17) as strikeouts in just 21 2/3 innings. Wood’s struggles have been pretty consistent, and even left-handed hitters, who usually struggle against Wood, have teed off against him in 2017.

Jason Hammel, RHP (starter) | Salary: $5MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018 (plus $2MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2019)

Another two-year offseason deal that hasn’t panned out, Hammel is sitting on a 5.43 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 35.4 percent ground-ball rate. Each of those marks represents a significant step back from his 2015-16 numbers, though Hammel has offered a glimmer of hope with a pair of excellent outings in his two most recent starts (three runs on nine hits and no walks with 11 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings). If he can continue to right the ship, his salary is reasonable enough to appeal to clubs in need of back-of-the-rotation fortification.

Drew Butera, C | Salary: $1.5MM in 2017, $2.3MM in 2018

Butera hasn’t come close to last season’s career year at the plate, though he’s never been close to even average offensive output with the exception of 2016, so expecting a repeat wasn’t really fair. He’s a well-regarded defensive catcher that could give clubs a veteran backup down the stretch.

Longer-Term Assets

Ian Kennedy, RHP (starter); Alex Gordon, OF; Seth Maness, RHP (reliever); Billy Burns, OF

The opt-out clause in Kennedy’s contract and the remaining $43MM on his contract (through 2020) make him an almost impossible player to move in light of his struggles. Kennedy’s K/BB numbers have taken significant steps back in 2017, and his 5.40 ERA makes it look certain that he’ll forgo that opt-out at season’s end, barring a sensational turnaround.

Gordon isn’t hitting at all right now, and it’s as difficult to envision a team being willing to take on his a chunk of his contract as it is to envision the Royals eating a huge chunk of money just to get rid of a player that has achieved borderline franchise icon status.

Maness and Burns are both on the 40-man and have both had some Major League success in the past. Burns is getting on base but not hitting for a shred of power in Triple-A. Maness has been better in Omaha than he has in the Majors this year, but the larger story on him is that he appears healthy after undergoing an experimental Tommy John alternative last August.

Taking Inventory: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled Taking Inventory, in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.

The Giants are already 25-39 and are not only 16 1/2 games behind the first-place Rockies in the NL West, they’re 13 1/2 games back of the third-place Diamondbacks. While it’s not impossible that they could still make a run at contention, it’s highly unlikely. That would seem to make them potential sellers at the trade deadline. Still, one shouldn’t necessarily expect fireworks. The Giants have endured frustrating seasons in the somewhat recent past and generally haven’t reacted with big shakeups, and even if their track record indicated a radical rebuild was a possibility, the circumstances of many of their veterans assets seemingly impede potential trades (as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick recently explained).

Rentals

Johnny Cueto, RHP (starter) | Salary: $21MM

There are no indications yet that the Giants will move Cueto, and to do so would be complex, although not impossible. Cueto is signed through 2021 with a team option for 2022, but he has an opt-out after the 2017 season, meaning that it will be difficult for any potential trade partner to know whether they’re getting a long-term asset or a short-term one. Cueto will also receive a $5MM buyout if he exercises his opt-out and a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded, further complicating a potential move. Cueto’s seemingly uneven performance this year might also be a factor, but perhaps a less important one — he has a 4.33 ERA this season, but his peripherals (9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) are strong as usual.

Eduardo Nunez, IF | Salary: $4.2MM

Unlike many players on this list, Nunez is reasonably priced. While he’s never been a world-beater offensively, he’s been consistent, and his .293/.320/.401 line thus far this season provides a good indication of what to expect from his contact-heavy offensive game going forward. He’s also versatile defensively, capable of playing third base, shortstop and the corner outfield spots. A contender could easily see him as a terrific bench piece. Nunez is as likely as any player on this list to be moved, and a trade would have the benefit of clearing a spot for some combination of Christian Arroyo and Jae-gyun Hwang, who are both currently with Triple-A Sacramento.

Aaron Hill, IF | Salary: $2MM

Hill is a recent minor-league signee who’s batting .178/.238/.333 thus far this season. It’s possible the Giants could deal him to a team in need of infield depth, but the return isn’t likely to be significant.

Nick Hundley, C | Salary: $2MM

Like Hill, Hundley has hit sparingly this season and wouldn’t have much trade value. It’s possible the Giants could ship him in a minor deal to a team in need of catching depth.

Controlled Through 2018

Hunter Pence, OF | Salary: $18.5MM

Pence has a full no-trade clause and has played poorly this season, batting .228/.269/.310 and missing time to a hamstring strain. Like many Giants, he might net the team a bit of extra value on the trade market due to his postseason experience, but he’s still unlikely to command much of a return unless he hits well over the next six weeks.

Matt Cain, RHP (starter) | Salary: $20MM

Cain’s exorbitant salary, the $7.5MM buyout on his 2018 option, and his uninspiring performances the past several seasons would seemingly make a trade very tricky, except perhaps as a change-of-scenery deal in which the Giants were to pick up nearly all of his remaining salary.

Longer-Term Assets

Jeff Samardzija, RHP (starter); Buster Posey, C; Mark Melancon, RHP (reliever); Madison Bumgarner, LHP (starter), Denard Span, OF; Brandon Crawford, SS; Matt Moore, LHP (starter); Brandon Belt, 1B; George Kontos, RHP (reliever)

Though Samardzija has a 4.31 ERA this season, his outstanding ratios (10.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9) would surely make him an attractive trade candidate. He is, however, signed through 2020 and can block trades to all but eight teams, complicating potential deals. It certainly wouldn’t be impossible for the Giants to trade him, but as with Cueto, it would be complex.

Posey and Melancon have full no-trade protection and are under contract for the next several seasons. Bumgarner has limited no-trade protection, is currently injured, and has reasonably priced options for 2018 and 2019. Span is 33, has produced modest offense this season, and is owed $9MM next season, plus at least a $4MM buyout and a remaining portion of his signing bonus. Crawford is signed through 2021 and has full no-trade protection. Moore is signed to a team-friendly contract that includes relatively cheap options for 2018 and 2019, potentially making him a trade asset, but he hasn’t pitched well this season. Belt is signed through 2021; his limited no-trade clause hasn’t yet kicked in, but he’s also in the first year of the extension he signed last season. Of all those players, perhaps the most likely to be dealt are Span and Moore, and neither of those seem that likely.

Kontos is one of a number of Giants relievers who could theoretically be dealt, also including Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland and Derek Law. Of those, Kontos is among the closest to free agency eligibility and the one with the longest track record. He’s signed for a reasonable $1.75MM in 2017 and is controllable for two more seasons, and while his strikeout and walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and he’s never had elite velocity, he’s also never had a season in which he wasn’t at least modestly effective.

Taking Inventory: Pittsburgh Pirates

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MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled Taking Inventory, in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.

Heading into the 2017 season, the Pirates looked like a potential contender, as it wasn’t hard to imagine scenarios in which Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole bounced back, Jameson Taillon built on a strong rookie season, Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow emerged as solid contributors and an offensive core built around McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco gave pitchers fits. Not much of that has happened, though, and the Bucs have also dealt with Jung Ho Kang’s visa limbo, Taillon’s unexpected testicular cancer diagnosis and Marte’s PED suspension. They’re now 26-35. While there might still be an outside shot they’ll contend, since no other club has yet run away with the NL Central, it looks increasingly likely they’ll consider selling as the summer progresses. If they do, here’s what they’ll have to offer.

Rentals

Tony Watson, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.6MM

Watson at one point might have been a good trade chip, but the Pirates recently bumped him from the closer role, and he’s posted a 6.00 ERA since the start of May. Watson is still left-handed, can touch the mid-90s, and has a good overall track record, however, so there’s still a chance a team could part with a real prospect to get him, particularly if he can reemerge over the next six weeks. He did pitch a scoreless inning yesterday against the Marlins, which is perhaps a good sign.

Juan Nicasio, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $3.65MM

The hard-throwing Nicasio appears to have finally settled in as a key contributor to the Pirates’ bullpen this season, posting a 1.35 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. That low ERA probably unsustainable, but he’s a good bet to continue to be successful. A team could also conceivably use him as a starter, but since he’s almost completely scrapped his changeup and tends to fare better as a reliever, it’s likely teams will pursue him as a bullpen asset. He could further boost his stock by pitching well in any save chances he gets in the wake of Watson’s demotion from the closer role.

Antonio Bastardo, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.5MM

Bastardo is currently on the DL with a quad strain (though he’s close to a return) and pitched miserably in April (allowing 12 runs and six walks in 6 2/3 innings). One team, the Mets, has already essentially dumped his contract when they shipped him to Pittsburgh for Jon Niese at last August’s non-waiver deadline. It’s unlikely Bastardo will have much value this summer, although he’s perhaps worth watching as a possible addition to the lefty reliever trade market if he returns and pitches reasonably before then.

John Jaso, 1B/OF | Salary: $4MM

Jaso boasts a good eye at the plate and has gamely attempted to be versatile in the field. Unfortunately, his abilities to hit for contact and power seem to be fading (he’s batting just .236 this season and has only three homers in 140 plate appearances), and he isn’t really an outfielder. He might attract limited interest from a team interested in a veteran left-handed bat off the bench.

Controlled Through 2018

Andrew McCutchen, OF | Salary: $14MM

McCutchen has a team option for 2018 worth $14.5MM, with a $1M buyout. The former MVP once appeared to be a significant trade asset, of course; even after a down 2017 season, the Pirates appeared last winter to be on the verge of trading him to the Nationals for a package that included Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning. McCutchen’s even worse hitting performance in 2017 (.237/.319/.411), though, makes his mediocre 2016 season look like less of an anomaly, leading to questions about whether the Pirates would even exercise his option if they were to keep him beyond this summer. McCutchen seems to have gotten back on the right track in the past few weeks, batting .350/.449/.525 over the past 14 days. Another month or so of that kind of hitting would go a long way toward solidifying his market.

Daniel Hudson, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.5MM

Hudson is also under contract for 2018 at $5.5MM. He has not pitched well in 2017 (5.33 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, although he’s fared decently since a five-run blowup against Miami in late April), and the Pirates, who believe in their ability to boost the stock of struggling pitchers, might be inclined to keep him and hope he benefits from their coaching.

Wade LeBlanc, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $750K

LeBlanc has a $1.25MM option or a $50K buyout for 2018. He has fared reasonably well this year (3.89 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 over 37 innings), although he wouldn’t be an exciting pickup, given his modest pedigree and limited velocity. He could still attract interest from a team in need of a reliever capable of pitching multiple-inning stretches, although he would continue to be useful for the Pirates thanks to that ability, particularly if they were to trade other pitchers.

Jordy Mercer, SS | Salary: $4.325MM

Mercer has been a steady but unspectacular regular shortstop throughout his career and would have only modest trade value despite a solid .347 OBP this season. Particularly with Kang still on the restricted list, the Pirates don’t yet have an obvious replacement for Mercer. They might therefore be inclined to keep him.

Chris Stewart, C | Salary: $1.4MM

Stewart also has a $1.5MM option or a $250K buyout for 2018. The backup is currently on the DL and would have very limited trade value even if he were healthy.

Longer-Term Assets

Righty Gerrit Cole is controllable through 2019 through the arbitration process. Connor Byrne recently examined Cole’s trade candidacy, noting that the problem with Cole as a trade asset is that he hasn’t pitched well recently — he’s given up a total of 23 runs over his last four starts. The Astros have reportedly had interest in Cole, and they’d surely join a long list of teams making calls about Cole should be the Bucs make him available (which they reportedly haven’t). The Pirates, though, might be reluctant to part with him given the years of control they have remaining and the possibility that they could be selling low. Of course, teams might be willing to pay high prices for him anyway, given his stuff, solid peripherals (7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 45.7 GB%) and unsustainably high home-run rate. Cole could be an interesting player to watch as the summer unfolds.

Other longer-term assets who could potentially come up in trade discussions include Ivan Nova (controllable through 2019), Francisco Cervelli (2019), David Freese (2019) and Josh Harrison (2020). None of those players seem terribly likely to be traded, although it’s possible to imagine Cervelli or Freese heading elsewhere under certain circumstances. Cervelli is currently on the 7-day concussion DL, and youngster Elias Diaz has hit well in limited opportunities. Perhaps Cervelli could be dealt should the Pirates choose to rebuild more aggressively than it currently appears they will. Freese has batted .273/.376/.432 this season and would undoubtedly be an attractive trade candidate, although with Kang out, the Bucs can certainly still use him.

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