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Nationals, Cardinals Swap Jon Lester For Lane Thomas

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The Cardinals added a second veteran lefty just prior to the trade deadline, agreeing to acquire longtime division rival Jon Lester from the Nationals in exchange for outfielder Lane Thomas. Both teams announced the swap.

Jon Lester | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Lester joins fellow graybeard J.A. Happ as a new addition to a Cardinals rotation that has been decimated by injury. The Cards are currently without ace Jack Flaherty (oblique strain), while Carlos Martinez is done for the year after undergoing thumb surgery. Miles Mikolas has pitched just four innings this year owing to another forearm strain. The Cards knew Dakota Hudson wouldn’t pitch in 2021 after he had Tommy John surgery last September. They’ve also seen absences for Kwang-hyun Kim and Daniel Ponce de Leon at times; the latter is on the shelf with a shoulder issue at the moment, in fact.

With so many injuries on the staff, the Cards had already turned to veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, and their acquisitions of Happ and Lester come with similar goals. Neither Happ nor Lester has pitched all that well in 2021, though Lester has the far better results of the two. He’s worked to a 5.02 ERA in 76 innings for the Nats and generated respectable ground-ball (42%) and walk (8.5%) rates. His 14.9 percent strikeout rate, however, is about nine percent worse than the league-average.

Lester, at this point, is primarily a five-inning pitcher. He’s recorded an out in the sixth inning or later in just five of his 16 trips to the mound this season and has been rocked at a .333/.386/.627 clip on the rare occasions he’s been asked to turn a lineup over for a third time. He’s not the innings eater that he once was, but if the Cardinals don’t try to push him into the sixth and seventh innings on the regular, he ought to be able to keep them in games and help bridge the gap until Flaherty and Mikolas are hopefully able to return. Lester is on a one-year, $5MM contract and will be a free agent at season’s end.

As for the Nationals’ return, the 26-year-old Thomas has yet to produce in the big leagues outside a quick cup of coffee late in the 2019 season, although it’s still rather surprising to see the Cardinals part with a big-league-ready outfielder who can be optioned both this year and next. Thomas is hitting just .104/.259/.125 this year, though it’s just a sample of 58 plate appearances. He’s an overall .172/.289/.336 hitter in a similarly small sample of 142 plate appearances.

Lane Thomas | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Thomas ranked as the Cardinals No. 14 prospect at  FanGraphs as recently as last summer, drawing praise for his defensive prowess in center field and the potential to pair that with some improved power and plate coverage. His lack of production in the big leagues notwithstanding, Thomas is a .269/.342/.468 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons, including a .265/.339/.451 showing in Triple-A Memphis this season.

The move to the Nationals seems like a good opportunity for Thomas, who’d been squeezed out of the outfield picture in St. Louis in favor of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. With the Nationals, who traded Kyle Schwarber and have a struggling Victor Robles in center field, opportunities for Thomas ought to be more plentiful. He might be a long shot to break out as an everyday option in D.C., but Thomas should at least get that chance. For two months of a struggling veteran starter, it’s a pretty nice roll of the dice for the Nats to inherit.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN broke the news (via Twitter) that Lester was going to St. Louis. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported that the Nats were getting Thomas in return.

Giants, Rockies Continue To Discuss Trevor Story

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2:26 pm: The Giants and Rockies remain engaged on Story with a little more than a half hour to go before the deadline, reports Feinsand.

1:03 pm: With just under two hours before the deadline, the Rockies have lowered their asking price on Story, one executive tells Sherman. That person suggests it’s now more likely than not that Story will be traded.

12:03 pm: There’s little traction between the Rockies and either of Tampa Bay or Toronto on a Story deal at the moment, hears Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Of course, the Jays just parted with a pair of top prospects to land José Berríos from the Twins, so it’s possible they might be disinclined to continue to mine the farm system for Story.

11:29 am: Some rival executives think the Rays and Blue Jays are the main contenders to land Rockies shortstop Trevor Story before this afternoon’s trade deadline, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds that the Rays, in particular, are making a “hard push” to land Story. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests the Giants also have interest, while Thomas Harding of MLB.com indicates the Rockies have had discussions regarding Story with the Cardinals as well.

Of course, that’s only if Story winds up traded at all, which Sherman confirms is far from a lock. The Rockies have expressed comfort with holding onto Story for weeks. While that could just be public posturing, it seems Colorado’s planning to hang onto fellow impending free agent Jon Gray past the deadline.

The end game there, however, is to try to hammer out a long-term deal with Gray. Story, on the other hand, isn’t seen as especially likely to sign an extension. The Rockies instead would be more likely to make him a qualifying offer and receive a compensatory draft choice if/when he rejects and signs elsewhere in free agency.

Of course, Story’s play this season has complicated matters. While he looked like an obvious trade candidate coming into the year on the heels of a .293/.361/.544 performance from 2019-20, he’s struggled to produce at the plate this season. The 28-year-old has a below-average .240/.312/.429 line (84 wRC+) over 375 plate appearances. That’s surely depressing the caliber of prospect teams are willing to part with, so there’s some sense for Colorado in recouping a high 2022 draft choice if rivals aren’t putting forth especially strong offers.

The Rays, Jays, Giants and Cardinals are all new reported entrants into the Story market. Sherman adds that the Mets — who have been linked to Story for a while — are still on the periphery but that the Rockies shortstop doesn’t seem to be their top priority at this time. The Yankees, Brewers and White Sox have also all been tied to Story in the past but seem less likely after adding to their infield in other ways (Anthony Rizzo, Eduardo Escobar and César Hernández, respectively).

Cardinals, Twins Swap John Gant For J.A. Happ

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In a swap of two struggling pitchers, the Cardinals and Twins swapped righty John Gant for lefty J.A. Happ, per announcements from both clubs. Minnesota also picks up minor league southpaw Evan Sisk in the deal.

Gant, unlike Happ, is controllable for another year beyond the current campaign. The 28-year-old Gant has long worked as a swingman in St. Louis, pitching to a 3.72 ERA in 339 innings dating back to his 2016 debut with the Braves. He’s sporting a solid-looking 3.42 ERA on the season, but that’s a deceiving mark; Gant has issued a staggering 56 walks in 76 1/3 innings this year, to go along with an identical 56 punchouts. That lack of command makes him a surefire regression candidate if he can’t right the ship.

John Gant | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

That said, while command has never been Gant’s strong suit, he’s also never struggled to quite this level. Gant walked a still-too-high 12.1 percent of batters from 2017-20, but he’s seen that mark balloon to 16.2 percent in 2021. Meanwhile, his 20.6 percent strikeout rate from 2017-20 has dropped, matching that 16.2 percent walk rate.

Gant is earning $2.1MM this year and is due a raise in arbitration this coming offseason, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be tendered by the Twins. But he’ll give his new club some length in the bullpen or perhaps even as a starter down the stretch, where he’ll have a couple months to prove he can improve his command and contribute next year.

In Happ, the Cards will pick up a veteran innings eater, but one whose struggles have been rather alarming. The 38-year-old has soaked up 98 1/3 innings for the Twins this season but been clobbered for a 6.77 ERA along the way. Happ has been impacted a bit by an elevated .332 average on balls in play, but he’s also been among the game’s most homer-prone pitchers, averaging 1.92 dingers per nine innings pitched.

J.A. Happ | Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Even more perplexing is that Happ’s struggles have only grown in recent weeks. He hasn’t made a quality start since April 28 and hasn’t surrendered fewer than three runs in an outing since the end of May. Dating back to June 1, Happ is toting an 8.13 ERA, and sticking to just the month of July, he’s yielded more runs (28) than innings pitched (27).

Even with the Twins taking back Gant’s contract and kicking in cash, it’s something of a surprise to see the Cardinals include a minor leaguer in this deal. Sisk isn’t one of the organization’s top prospects, but he’s turned in a 3.31 ERA in 32 1/3 innings out of the bullpen between Class-A Advanced and Double-A so far in 2021. He’s fanned a very strong 29.1 percent of his opponents, but he’s also walked batters at an ugly 12.7 percent clip. Sisk, the Cardinals’ 16th-rounder back in 2018, induces grounders at a strong clip and at least has a chance of eventually emerging as a lefty option in the Minnesota ’pen.

It’s probably more than most would’ve expected the team to get for the struggling Happ, but it underscores the Cardinals’ need to simply accumulate innings to fill out the rotation after doing little to address their questionable starting pitching depth in the offseason.

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune first reported the Twins were moving a starting pitcher. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the Twins were acquiring Gant. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted Happ was going to Minnesota. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that the Twins were also getting Sisk in the deal

Cardinals Acquire T.J. Zeuch From Blue Jays

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The Cardinals have reportedly acquired right-hander T.J. Zeuch from the Blue Jays, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). Zeuch was recently designated for assignment. The Blue Jays will receive cash considerations, and Zeuch will be assigned to Triple-A, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).

St. Louis has been extremely active in the waiver market, already snagging T.J. McFarland and Justin Miller from the Nationals. Zeuch, however, brings the ability to log innings in the rotation. That fits a particular need for the Cardinals, who currently have four starters on the injured list (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martinez, Dakota Hudson).

He’s been fairly reliable, for what he provides. Basically, Zeuch offers innings and groundballs. Zeuch figured to be a popular target on the waiver wire given his relatively reliable production, pedigree as a former first-round draft pick, and contract, as he not only is pre-arb, but also comes with two options remaining. The Cardinals also had a 40-man roster spot open after losing Roel Ramirez off waivers to the Mets.

Giants Interested In Danny Duffy

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Though Danny Duffy was placed on the Royals’ 10-day injured list on Tuesday, the Giants still have trade interest in the veteran southpaw, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  “Injuries don’t give San Francisco much pause in general,” Slusser notes, citing the team’s signing of John Brebbia in the offseason as Brebbia was recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Naturally, the Giants’ interest will hinge on just exactly how hurt Duffy is, considering that this is the second time he has visited the IL this season with a left flexor strain.  That earlier IL stint sidelined Duffy for close to six weeks, so if a similar recovery period is required, he won’t be available for the Royals, Giants, or any other club until the first week of September.  This still makes Duffy a potential difference-maker in a pennant race, though that assumes that he’ll still be effective after this latest layoff, and it also assumes that he won’t need a longer time to heal up considering that this is a recurring injury.

It adds yet another wrinkle to Duffy’s interesting case a trade candidate.  While the Statcast metrics haven’t been great for the 32-year-old, Duffy has strong bottom-line numbers, with a 2.51 ERA and an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate over 61 innings.  He is also a free agent after the season and thus a seemingly logical trade chip for the struggling Royals, though Duffy has full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player, and he has been public about his desire to remain with the Royals for the entirety of his career.

However, there has been some indication that Duffy (born in Goleta, California) might be willing to accept a trade to the West Coast.  As such, teams like the Padres, Dodgers, and now the Giants have reportedly been linked to Duffy, though it remains to be seen if the other California teams also wouldn’t balk at acquiring an injured player.  As Slusser notes, Duffy’s injury surely lowers the Royals’ asking price in a trade, so a team like San Francisco could potentially see him as something of a buy-low lottery ticket acquisition.

In other Giants trade rumblings, Slusser reports that the Cardinals and Rangers have had scouts recently watching the Giants, so some potential trade chips on those teams (if St. Louis indeed decides to sell at the deadline) could be on San Francisco’s radar.  On the pitching end, Kyle Gibson, Kwang Hyun Kim, or even longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright stand out.  Slusser notes that the outfield is a target area for the Giants, so Rangers slugger Joey Gallo would be a major fit.

Mets Claim Roel Ramirez Off Waivers From Cardinals

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The Mets announced they’ve claimed right-hander Roel Ramírez off waivers from the Cardinals. New York had a vacancy on the 40-man roster after designating Jerad Eickhoff for assignment last night.

St. Louis selected Ramírez to the big league roster last month. He made one appearance before being optioned out, giving him two combined big league outings in as many seasons. Ramírez has otherwise the spent the year with Triple-A Memphis, where he’s tossed 29 relief innings across 20 games. Ramírez compiled a 4.34 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates (27.8% and 7.0%, respectively) for the Redbirds.

New York’s relief corps has had to shoulder a lot of work over the past few days, particularly after last night’s starter Robert Stock was forced to depart in the second inning due to a right hamstring strain. Ramírez’s ability to work multiple innings out of the bullpen could help the Mets’ beleaguered back-end weather the next few days.

Draft Signings: 7/20/21

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Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:

  • The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
  • The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
  • The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
  • The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
  • The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.

Draft Signings: 7/19/21

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A few notable draft signings for Day Two selections:

  • The Braves signed right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to a $1MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That checks in a bit below the $1.1855MM slot value associated with the 59th overall pick. A two-way star at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher on draft day. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Cornhuskers this season because he was the team’s everyday shortstop, but it’s possible the Braves stretch him out as a starting pitcher in pro ball. Keith Law of the Athletic is particularly bullish on Schwellenbach, ranking him the class’ #29 prospect pre-draft and praising his delivery, mid-90s fastball, and promising secondary pitches.
  • The Cardinals have signed second-rounder Joshua Baez to a $2.25MM bonus, Callis reports. That’s well above the $1.3385MM slot value that accompanies the 54th selection. A corner outfielder from a Massachusetts high school, Baez had been committed to Vanderbilt University. He’s a high-volatility prospect, with some of the best raw power in the class but questions about his hit tool given the lack of quality pitching he faced in the Northeast. Baez’s huge upside earned him spots among the top 35 prospects in the estimation of Law, Baseball America, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. St. Louis saved a bit of bonus pool space by going underslot with UCSB right-hander Michael McGreevy in the first round.
  • The Royals came to a $1MM agreement with fourth-rounder Shane Panzini, Callis reports. That’s nearly double the $538.2K slot value that comes with the 108th selection. Kansas City’s clearly more bullish than most public evaluators on Panzini, who came in at #239 in Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA noted that the right-hander can get his fastball into the mid-90s and has a clean delivery, but expressed concerns about his lack of impactful secondary pitches and advanced age for a prep draftee (he turns 20 in October). Nevertheless, the Royals were comfortable offering the New Jersey native seven figures to forego his commitment to the University of Virginia.

Carlos Martinez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martínez has undergone surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Zachary Silver of MLB.com) this afternoon. Martínez was already known to be facing an extended absence — he landed on the 60-day injured list two weeks ago — but it’s nevertheless a disappointing development for the 29-year-old.

It’s not clear whether the procedure officially rules Martínez out for the remainder of the season, but that doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable assumption. If Martínez’s season is finished, it’s quite possible he’s already made his last appearance as a Cardinal. St. Louis has a $17MM club option on his services for 2022, but that’s a near lock to be bought out for $500K instead. Martínez’s performance before he suffered the injury simply hasn’t warranted that kind of financial outlay.

Martínez was a productive mid-rotation starter for much of his early career with the Cardinals. That earned him a five-year, $51MM extension in February 2017 that guaranteed he’d spend at least the first nine years of his big league career in St. Louis. Martínez continued to pitch at a high level through 2019 (spending that season in the bullpen) but has struggled mightily over the last two years. Between 2020-21, Martínez has pitched to a 6.95 ERA/5.18 FIP over 102 1/3 innings, with his once-strong strikeout numbers tailing off.

A lack of starting pitching depth has plagued the Cardinals all season, thanks in part to Martínez’s struggles. St. Louis was known to be on the hunt for pitching help last month, but it’s not clear the club will be in position to buy at the trade deadline. The Cardinals entered play tonight with a 46-47 record; that’s tied with the Cubs for third place in the NL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Brewers. They’re 7.5 back in the Wild Card race, with the Reds and Phillies also between them and the Padres, who currently hold the final playoff position.

Even if the Cardinals don’t wind up being buyers, the organization looks more likely to stand pat in advance of the July 30 trade deadline than orchestrate any type of sell off. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested last weekend selling wasn’t on the table.

As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat explores, there wouldn’t be a ton of obvious trade candidates on the St. Louis roster even if Mozeliak were more amenable to moving some veterans. A majority of the club’s key players are under team control through 2022, and St. Louis is certainly not about to embark on a full rebuild. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Andrew Miller are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, but all three have full no-trade rights — Molina and Wainwright based on their MLB service time, Miller through the terms of his free agent contract. Trading franchise icons like Molina or Wainwright midseason probably wouldn’t be under consideration for the front office regardless.

The one player on the Cardinals who stands out as the most obvious potential trade candidate is southpaw Kwang-hyun Kim. The 32-year-old has performed well over his first two seasons since coming over from the KBO, and he’s ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. There’d surely be demand from contenders seeking pitching help, but it seems there’s a potential obstacle to any Kim deal. A source close to Kim tells Jones the left-hander might consider opting out of the rest of the season and returning to his native South Korea if the Cardinals traded him. If that’s indeed the case, it’d essentially kill any chance of him getting dealt.

Cardinals Sign First-Round Pick Michael McGreevy

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TODAY: McGreevy received an $2.75MM bonus, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (Twitter link).

JULY 16: The Cardinals announced this evening that they’d come to terms on a contract with first-round pick Michael McGreevy. Terms of the deal remain unclear. The slot value for the #18 overall selection, with which McGreevy was selected, is $3.4813MM.

McGreevy dominated hitters over his three-year career at UC Santa-Barbara. The righty worked to a 2.33 ERA across 189 1/3 innings as a Gaucho, striking out 25.1% of batters faced while walking only 4.0% of opponents. The Big West isn’t among Division I baseball’s few best conferences, but there’s still little doubt McGreevy was one of the top performers in the country.

There’s a bit more divisiveness among public evaluators about where exactly he fit among the draft’s top arms, though. Baseball America was extremely bullish on the 21-year-old, naming him the 16th most talented player in the class. BA lauded his elite control and plus curveball in calling him a potential mid-rotation starter.

Each of Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and Keith Law of the Athletic slotted McGreevy between 35th and 50th on their respective draft boards. Those outlets expressed some concerns about McGreevy’s below-average velocity (90-93 MPH range), although he draws unanimous praise for his athleticism and strike-throwing acumen.

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