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Quick Hits: Cardinals, Molina, Minor League Affiliate Changes

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Four teams, including the Cardinals, are in on Yadier Molina, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals still seem the safest bet to re-sign their veteran catcher. The Cardinals have been the most eager, and Molina likewise for the Cardinals, per the Post-Dispatch. It’s frankly difficult to picture Molina in any uniform but Cardinal red, but stranger things have happened, especially in the time of COVID. The 38-year-old backstop has 17 seasons under his belt in St. Louis having appeared in 2,025 games with a triple slash of .281/.333/.404. Now, let’s check in on some affiliate changes…

  • The Columbia Fireflies learned during owner Steve Cohen’s introductory press conference that they are no longer among the Mets’ minor league affiliates, per the Athletic’s Tim Britton (Twitter thread). The Fireflies anticipate joining another organization’s affiliates, though where exactly they’ll end up is very much up in the air for now, as is the case for many minor league teams. As Britton notes, the Florida State League is moving from High-A to Low-A, which is sure to cause some upheaval among those minor league affiliates.
  • Rochester, New York will no longer house the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Popular local team the St. Paul Saints of the independent league are being looked at as a potential replacement – one of two independent league teams that are likely to join minor league baseball. The Twins have spent the past 17 seasons (not including 2020) with Rochester as an affiliate, though it’s hard to argue that St. Paul doesn’t make more sense simply from a logistics standpoint. Wichita and Sioux Falls are also being considered, per Neal.

Kolten Wong Has Heard From “At Least” Six Teams

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The Cardinals made what was an unpopular decision among many fans last week, buying out Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option for the 2021 season and making the now-two-time Gold Glove second baseman a free agent for the first time in his career. Wong spoke to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about the team’s decision in a must-read interview for Cards fans, calling it a “punch to the gut” after he’d given his “heart and soul to the organization.”

Goold reports that Wong has heard from “at least” six other clubs since free agency began — the Angels among them. It stands to reason that others will filter in as teams get a greater sense of their 2021 budgets and/or make other transactions that could create a stronger fit for Wong within their organizations. That said, Wong made clear that he’s “absolutely” open to a reunion with the Cards, even if he sounded somewhat disappointed that the team didn’t make an effort to work out a more creative alternative. Wong plainly stated that he’d have been open to restructuring his contract or backloading a deal to help offset the 2020 revenue losses.

Whether a return to the Cardinals is plausible remains unclear, however, given the apparent financial constraints that ownership is placing on the front office. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak must also determine how to proceed with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright — both free agents themselves. Goold writes that the Cardinals have yet to initiate negotiations to re-sign Wong but hope to be in touch with him as his market develops.

Wong now joins a free-agent class of second basemen headlined by DJ LeMahieu and also featuring Jonathan Schoop, Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella, among others. While LeMahieu obviously carries the most earning power of the bunch, Wong is arguably the second-best option on the market thanks to his blend of elite glovework, strong contact skills and perennially high on-base percentages.

The 2020 season was a down year in terms of power for Wong, who hit just one home run in 208 plate appearances, but he won his second Gold Glove and posted a strong .350 on-base percentage. Over the past four seasons, Wong has posted a combined .273/.356/.398 batting line with 25 home runs, 74 doubles, 11 triples and 43 stolen bases. In that span, Wong ranks 14th among all Major Leaguers, regardless of position, with 37 Defensive Runs Saved. He’s 16th in composite Ultimate Zone Rating in that same span.

Cardinals, Three Other Clubs In Touch With Yadier Molina

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Cardinals icon Yadier Molina has heard from three non-Cardinals clubs since free agency has begun, agent Melvin Roman tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, Roman did not specify which clubs have reached out to this point in the very young offseason. So far, this is shaping up to be something of a public-facing free agency for Molina, as Roman has already been willing to put his name on record in stating his client’s hope for a two-year deal as well.

It’s difficult to picture Molina in the uniform of any club other than the Cardinals after the 38-year-old has spent the past 17 years in St. Louis. But Molina raised some eyebrows among Cardinals fans earlier this year when he declared that he wanted to continue playing and was willing to do so even if it meant signing with a new club. Roman previously indicated that Molina is seeking a two-year deal that would carry him through age 40 and, perhaps, through the end of his likely Hall of Fame career.

While we don’t know yet — and may not know — which clubs plan to seriously pursue Molina, it’s not hard to look around the league and pick out some potential landing spots. There’s already speculation about the Yankees moving on from Gary Sanchez, for instance, and there would be few more dramatic ways to flip the narrative in the Bronx than to move from the free-swinging, defensively challenged Sanchez to the high-contact, defensively revered Molina.

Elsewhere, the Mets are on the lookout for a new backstop with Wilson Ramos hitting free agency. The Phillies could lose J.T. Realmuto this winter, and the Marlins are also expected to explore catching upgrades on the heels of their surprising playoff berth. The Angels could use an upgrade, too. Wherever Molina does go, it’s logical to expect him to sign with a club that has clear postseason aspirations — one that can offer him regular playing time. The nine-time Gold Glover and four-time Platinum Glover already has a pair of rings on his resume and surely would like to add another in the waning stages of his career.

Molina’s bat has tailed off since a solid 2018 showing, but he’s put together a respectable .268/.310/.388 batting line with 14 home runs and a lowly 13 percent strikeout rate through 608 plate appearances over the past two seasons. That level of production — an 86 wRC+ — is well south of the league average hitter but isn’t far off the mark of the performance of the average catcher. And Molina still has well-regarded defensive numbers, including above-average framing marks, a 31.7 percent caught-stealing rate since 2019 and his reputation as one of the game’s premier game callers.

One of the more intriguing storylines — or, for Cardinals fans, more unsettling storylines — to follow this winter will be the future of Molina and fellow Cardinals icon Adam Wainwright. Both aim to continue playing in 2021, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last month that the longtime teammates have even discussed the possibility of signing elsewhere as a pair in free agency. All else equal, both would prefer to return to St. Louis, it seems. However, the Cards do have a younger option behind the plate in Andrew Knizner, and there’s already been plenty of talk about the financial limitations the front office might face this offseason.

Cardinals Transactions: Schrock, Crismatt, R. Sanchez

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  • The Cubs announced that they have claimed infielder Max Schrock via waivers from the rival Cardinals. Chicago also outrighted lefty Rex Brothers to Triple-A Iowa. Schrock picked up just 17 plate appearances for St. Louis in 2020 and collected three hits (two singles and a homer). Brothers, 32, threw only 3.1 innings with the Cubs and allowed three earned runs.
  • Speaking of the Cardinals, they announced outright assignments for righty Nabil Crismatt and lefty Ricardo Sanchez. Crismatt was successful for the Cardinals in 2020, notching 8.1 frames of three-run ball with eight strikeouts and one walk. Sanchez had some difficulty across 5.1 innings, though, as he gave up four earned runs and issued five walks.

Braves Interested In Adam Wainwright

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Longtime Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright hopes to remain in St. Louis, but he’s keeping his options open as he nears a trip to free agency. That could mean returning to his native Georgia, as the Braves have interest in Wainwright and have already contacted him, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports.

This could be a full-circle move for Wainwright, who began his career with the Atlanta organization, even playing under current Braves manager Brian Snitker in Double-A ball. Wainwright never appeared in the majors for the Braves, though, as they traded him to the Cardinals in 2003 in a deal that sent outfielder J.D. Drew to Atlanta.

For St. Louis, the Wainwright acquisition couldn’t have worked out better. Now 39 years old, Wainwright’s a three-time All-Star, a World Series winner and a Cardinals icon who has provided the club 2,169 1/3 innings of 3.38 ERA/3.41 FIP pitching. He’s also third all-time for the team in wins with 167, trailing only Bob Gibson and Jesse Haines. And Wainwright showed this past season that he still has plenty to offer, as he amassed 65 2/3 frames of 3.15 ERA/4.11 FIP ball with 7.4 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9.

The type of production Wainwright put forth in 2020 would be welcome for the Braves, whose rotation dealt with its share of adversity. Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels, whom they were counting on to play major roles, each missed almost the entire season because of injuries; Mike Foltynewicz ended up on the outs; and several other options logged awful numbers over multiple starts.

Going forward, the good news for the Braves is that their rotation doesn’t appear to need a ton of help. While Hamels is a free agent, Soroka’s coming back to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson atop the Braves’ staff. That trio provides the team with an excellent top end of the rotation, and adding someone like Wainwright would give the Braves a more-than-capable No. 4 and a well-respected veteran who would be able to mentor their younger starters.

Managerial/Front Office Notes: White Sox, Kantrovitz, A’s, Cards

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There’s quite a lot of intrigue in the front office and managerial arenas this offseason. Let’s check in on the latest bits of information …

  • WGN broadcaster Dan Roan crafted an eyebrow-raising tweet regarding the next White Sox manager. Indications are that the organization is preparing to make a swift and dramatic decision to fill the top dugout opening. Roan hints at a forthcoming announcement that Tony La Russa will be tapped for a return run on the South Side. It’s certainly not a firm report of an imminent agreement, but Sox fans may want to keep an eye on the news wire on Thursday.
  • The Angels have a new potential target in their GM search, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Halos have asked the Cubs to green-light a chat with Dan Kantrovitz, the current VP of scouting in Chicago. Kantrovitz, who has been with the Cubs for less than a year, could in theory be considered for the top job in Anaheim or targeted as one of two hires if the club decides to bring on both a president of baseball ops and a general manager.
  • This time last year, Kantrovitz was still with the Athletics — a team that now appears to be looking at the end of an era with the potential departure of Billy Beane. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle addresses several elements of the situation in response to reader inquiries. Unsurprisingly, she anticipates that GM David Forst would step into Beane’s shoes in the event of the latter’s departure. Kantrovitz might’ve been in line to succeed as GM had he remained. As things stand, Slusser suggests that AGM Billy Owens stands to move up the ladder if he’s not first snatched up by another org.
  • The Cardinals are planning to trim costs in player payroll after a round of front office cuts. It turns out that the recent departures included a trio of notable former players, according to Mark Saxon of The Athletic (via Twitter). Former Cards Chris Carpenter, Jason Isringhausen, and Jim Edmonds are no longer being paid as special assistants.

Mozeliak On Cardinals’ Payroll Outlook

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The Cardinals front office is preparing for some austerity in the 2020-21 offseason, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated to reporters including Mark Saxon of The Athletic (Twitter link). Details remain unclear, but Mozeliak left no doubt that payroll will decline.

The St. Louis organization already passed on a chance to retain second baseman Kolten Wong at a $12.5MM salary. That decision would’ve been a close in “normal” times, but came as little surprise in the current environment.

It seems fair to presume we’ll see wallet tightening around the game, but Mozeliak suggests the Cards may be uniquely impacted. COVID-19 closures have battered revenue in 2020 and left ample uncertainty for the ensuing season.

Mozeliak explained:

“Obviously, the success of the Cardinals the last 20 years has been our gate revenue. I do think we might be more negatively affected than others.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see where the mainstay organization ultimately sets its payroll. In recent seasons, the Cardinals had carried Opening Day payrolls in the $160MM range.

The club is presently committed for just under $100MM in salary for 2021, with fairly minimal anticipated arbitration payouts to be added. It’s possible there’ll still be a fair bit of financial flexibility to work with, but a major paring of payroll would likely take the Cards out of the market for premium free agents.

Paul Goldschmidt Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt recently underwent surgery to have a bone spur taken out of his right elbow, according to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville-News Democrat).

Goldschmidt is recovering well from his procedure, which is welcome news for a Cardinals team that can’t afford to go without him. After having a pedestrian season (by his lofty standards) in 2019, Goldschmidt returned to form in a big way this past year. The 33-year-old took 231 trips to the plate and slashed .304/.417/.466 with six home runs, reminding the Cardinals why they paid a hefty price to the Diamondbacks to acquire Goldschmidt heading into 2019.

Goldschmidt was easily the Cardinals’ main offensive threat this year, and barring a major acquisition(s) over the winter, that will remain the case next season. Despite Goldy’s best efforts, the Cardinals only finished 19th in wRC+ (93), and most of their regulars recorded below-average numbers at the plate.

Cardinals Decline Kolten Wong’s Option

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The Cardinals have declined second baseman Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option for 2021 in favor of a $1MM buyout, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was among those to report.

This doesn’t necessarily close the book on Wong’s career with the Cardinals, who were reportedly interested in extending him on a multiyear contract just a couple of weeks ago. For now, though, it does make Wong a free agent and leave a hole at the keystone for St. Louis.

A member of the Cardinals organization since they chose him 22nd overall in the 2011 draft, Wong has been a generally effective part of the team dating back to his 2013 debut. While Wong has never been a major threat at the plate, his ability to combine passable offense with outstanding defense has made him an average or better contributor throughout his career. Just this past season, the 30-year-old Wong batted .265/.350/.326 with a strong 14.4 percent strikeout rate in 208 plate appearances. He also accounted for six Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.8 Ultimate Zone Rating in the field.

Now, if Wong actually explores the open market, he’ll be one of the most accomplished players available at his position. Wong would arguably be the second-best player in free agency there after DJ LeMahieu.

 

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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For the second straight year, the Cardinals overcame a lackluster offense to reach the postseason, though 2020 also saw the club emerge from a widespread COVID-19 outbreak.  St. Louis now faces some tough decisions on veteran cornerstones, while also figuring out how to make further needed upgrades despite a potential lack of payroll flexibility.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $103.5MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $51.75MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $21MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $20.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF: $16.5MM through 2021
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $12MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $12MM through 2021 (club option vested into a guaranteed deal)
  • Kwang Hyun Kim, SP: $4MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $12.5MM club option for 2021 ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

On the plus side of the payroll equation, the Cardinals don’t have a big arbitration class, and they have quite a few major contributors who are either just becoming arb-eligible or are still in their pre-arb years.  The released Brett Cecil’s contract will come off the books and the Yadier Molina/Adam Wainwright free agent duo represents $25MM in salary, so the Cards could have some money to play with this winter.

The question is, however, whether these savings will be reinvested into payroll.  While St. Louis has a lot of inexpensive players, it also has almost $110MM committed to eight players for 2021 (that isn’t counting Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option, which we’ll cover later).  Like every other team in baseball, the Cardinals are dealing with revenue losses and will be looking to make at least some cutbacks whenever feasible.  That said, this is also a veteran win-now team, so the Cards will still be looking to contend.

It leaves president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch with a difficult offseason ahead of them, in part because the 2020 Cardinals are a particularly hard team to evaluate.  The coronavirus outbreak affected multiple members of the roster and kept the entire team sidelined for over two weeks, only adding to the stop-start nature of an already abbreviated season.  A case can be made that the front office could try to run it back with mostly the same core group, yet the Cardinals have enough weak points that some changes definitely need to be made.

Molina was one of the COVID-19 positive Cardinals, and the longtime catcher simply never got on track, hitting .262/.303/.359 over 156 plate appearances.  That makes it consecutive seasons of subpar offensive production for Molina, but he is still looking for a two-year contract that would take him past his 40th birthday.  Letting Molina go would open the door for noted prospect Andrew Knizner to assume at least a share of everyday duties (maybe alongside a veteran such as a re-signed Matt Wieters), and yet are the Cards willing to let a franchise icon depart?

Wainwright represents perhaps a slightly easier decision, as the 39-year-old was still a very effective player last season.  Statcast metrics didn’t love his performance, but Wainwright still posted a 3.15 ERA, 3.60 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over a team-high 65 2/3 innings.  Even with a big decline over a fuller season of work, Wainwright still looks like he has something to offer a team, so the question now becomes whether or not the Cardinals could be that team.  Wainwright has said he wants to stay in St. Louis but hinted that his fate could potentially be linked to wherever Molina ends up.

Re-signing Wainwright to something close to the one-year, $5MM contract (plus several incentives) that he inked last year would seem like a logical move for the Cardinals, who head into 2021 with some question marks on the pitching staff.  Nominal ace Jack Flaherty struggled in 2020, Carlos Martinez battled a severe case of COVID-19 and then suffered a late-season oblique strain, and Miles Mikolas’ status for the start of next season isn’t yet known after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in late July.  On top of that, Dakota Hudson will almost certainly miss all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September.

A lower-tier move like a reunion with Wainwright might be all the attention the Cards focus on their rotation, since they still have some solid in-house depth.  Kwang Hyun Kim proved to be a real find last winter, and the South Korean left-hander solidified his spot in next year’s starting five following an outstanding rookie season.  Beyond Kim and Flaherty, the Cardinals also have Daniel Ponce de Leon, Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, and Austin Gomber to pick up starts, and top prospect Matthew Liberatore could also potentially work his way into the conversation.

There’s also oft-injured Alex Reyes, who stayed healthy (apart from an asymptomatic case of COVID-19) and pitched well in a relief capacity.  St. Louis could opt to just keep Reyes in the bullpen to avoid any further injury concerns, and the same logic could also extend to Martinez, who was returning to starting pitching in 2020 after an impressive season and a half working as a reliever.  Depending on Martinez’s health situation and the overall state of the rotation, returning Martinez to the closer role (or maybe situational closer duties shared with Reyes) could be a canny way of bolstering an already solid relief corps.  Jordan Hicks also figures to be in the ninth-inning mix, though his status is somewhat up in the air after he opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns and a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in June 2019.

The Cardinals’ ability to deliver consistent pitching and quality defense made them a playoff team, though that path would be much easier with any sort of regular help from the lineup.  Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t quite a one-man hit squad in 2020, as St. Louis got an unexpectedly big contribution from utilityman Brad Miller and center fielder Harrison Bader at least crushed left-handed pitching, even if his splits against righties were mediocre.

Goldschmidt is obviously a cornerstone player, and the Cards would be pleased with Bader as an everyday player (with some platoon possibility) if he continues to mash lefties and provide solid center field defense, though Bader’s glovework dropped from excellent in 2018-19 to merely good in 2020.  Beyond those two, however, the Cardinals will go into next season unsure of whether or not Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, or Dexter Fowler can turn things around at the plate.

DeJong’s struggles could be explained by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, though Carpenter has had two straight subpar seasons and Fowler has been hit-and-miss for much of his St. Louis tenure.  On top of that, Tommy Edman followed up his strong 2019 rookie year with an underwhelming second season, so it remains to be seen if Edman just had a sophomore slump (on top of everything else in 2020) or if he can adjust and become a regular contributor within the infield.

For now, the Cardinals’ infield picture lines up as Goldschmidt at first base, DeJong at shortstop, Carpenter at third base, and Edman as the nominal second baseman until a decision is made on Wong.  Though Wong hit only .265/.350/.326 over 208 PA last season, the Cards know what they have in the Hawaii native — roughly average offensive production (a 99 wRC+ and 98 OPS+ from 2015-20) and an often spectacular second base glove.  In a normal offseason, exercising that $12.5MM club option would seem like a relatively easy call for St. Louis, but the team is thought to be exploring a contract extension with Wong that would lower his salary for the 2021 season but give him more long-term security.

If an extension can’t be reached, could St. Louis consider simply declining Wong’s option?  It seems a little unlikely, given Wong’s obvious value to both the Cardinals and other teams, yet the possibility can’t be ruled out if the Cardinals are lacking in payroll wiggle room.  The Cards might have some confidence they could get Wong to re-sign at a lower price tag, but a number of second-base needy teams (i.e. the Athletics, Indians, Yankees, Rockies, Phillies, Angels, Cubs, and probably others) would provide a lot of competition for Wong’s services.

With Carpenter a question mark, St. Louis will probably look for more infield depth beyond Edman, and re-signing Miller would certainly seem feasible given how well he played last season.  Miller has quietly hit .247/.343/.510 with 20 home runs over 341 PA since the start of the 2019 season, with much of that production coming against right-handed pitching.  Signing a player of Miller’s ilk will become even more of a need if the National League again has the DH for 2021, as Miller instantly provided the Cardinals with some pop from the new position.

That leaves the outfield, a big problem area in 2020 that nonetheless has hope for improvement.  St. Louis outfielders combined for an 82 wRC+ in 2020 (the sixth-lowest total of any team), but Bader did hit lefties well, and star prospect Dylan Carlson seemed to turn a corner in mid-September after being recalled from a demotion to the alternate training site.  The Cardinals likely have Bader and Carlson penciled in for two outfield spots, or perhaps 1.5 spots if Carlson plays center field on days when the Cards face a right-handed starter.

That puts no small amount of pressure on a 22-year-old, of course, and it would help the Cardinals immensely if they could count on anything from Fowler, Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas.  COVID-19 limited Thomas to only 18 games, so there is some expectation that he can rebound as at least a part-time outfield option if healthy.  O’Neill is only 25 and not far removed from being a top prospect, but he has yet to translate his hitting potential into big league numbers.

This much wait-and-see is risky for a team hoping to win in 2021, so if St. Louis makes any sort of notable addition this winter, the outfield is the logical landing spot.  As much as trading Randy Arozarena might still weigh heavily on the front office’s mind, the Cardinals could shop O’Neill, Thomas, or Bader for a more proven veteran bat.  With only one year left on his contract, Fowler might also be moveable in a bad-contract swap or if the Cards are willing to eat some money.  If the trade market isn’t the preferred route, the Cardinals could look at free agents, whether it’s pure outfielders like Joc Pederson, or perhaps multi-position types like Jurickson Profar or Enrique Hernandez that could help in both the outfield and infield.

There’s probably bound to again be speculation about the Cards trying to swing a bigger-ticket trade like their acquisition of Goldschmidt two offseasons ago, or their rumored interest in Nolan Arenado last winter.  But, if payroll concerns were an obstacle to an Arenado trade last year, a deal seems even more unlikely now in the pandemic’s wake.

It’s easy to imagine either a pretty quiet or a pretty busy offseason for the Cardinals, depending on how much change they feel is necessary.  After all, this is a club that has been to the postseason in consecutive years, albeit via the expanded playoff field in 2020.  The potential departures of Molina and Wainwright have more than just symbolic importance, as the Cards would be left with two more areas of need on a roster that is lacking in sure things.

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