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Draft Signings: 7/20/21

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Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:

  • The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
  • The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
  • The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
  • The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
  • The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.

Draft Signings: 7/19/21

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A few notable draft signings for Day Two selections:

  • The Braves signed right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to a $1MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That checks in a bit below the $1.1855MM slot value associated with the 59th overall pick. A two-way star at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher on draft day. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Cornhuskers this season because he was the team’s everyday shortstop, but it’s possible the Braves stretch him out as a starting pitcher in pro ball. Keith Law of the Athletic is particularly bullish on Schwellenbach, ranking him the class’ #29 prospect pre-draft and praising his delivery, mid-90s fastball, and promising secondary pitches.
  • The Cardinals have signed second-rounder Joshua Baez to a $2.25MM bonus, Callis reports. That’s well above the $1.3385MM slot value that accompanies the 54th selection. A corner outfielder from a Massachusetts high school, Baez had been committed to Vanderbilt University. He’s a high-volatility prospect, with some of the best raw power in the class but questions about his hit tool given the lack of quality pitching he faced in the Northeast. Baez’s huge upside earned him spots among the top 35 prospects in the estimation of Law, Baseball America, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. St. Louis saved a bit of bonus pool space by going underslot with UCSB right-hander Michael McGreevy in the first round.
  • The Royals came to a $1MM agreement with fourth-rounder Shane Panzini, Callis reports. That’s nearly double the $538.2K slot value that comes with the 108th selection. Kansas City’s clearly more bullish than most public evaluators on Panzini, who came in at #239 in Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA noted that the right-hander can get his fastball into the mid-90s and has a clean delivery, but expressed concerns about his lack of impactful secondary pitches and advanced age for a prep draftee (he turns 20 in October). Nevertheless, the Royals were comfortable offering the New Jersey native seven figures to forego his commitment to the University of Virginia.

Carlos Martinez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martínez has undergone surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Zachary Silver of MLB.com) this afternoon. Martínez was already known to be facing an extended absence — he landed on the 60-day injured list two weeks ago — but it’s nevertheless a disappointing development for the 29-year-old.

It’s not clear whether the procedure officially rules Martínez out for the remainder of the season, but that doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable assumption. If Martínez’s season is finished, it’s quite possible he’s already made his last appearance as a Cardinal. St. Louis has a $17MM club option on his services for 2022, but that’s a near lock to be bought out for $500K instead. Martínez’s performance before he suffered the injury simply hasn’t warranted that kind of financial outlay.

Martínez was a productive mid-rotation starter for much of his early career with the Cardinals. That earned him a five-year, $51MM extension in February 2017 that guaranteed he’d spend at least the first nine years of his big league career in St. Louis. Martínez continued to pitch at a high level through 2019 (spending that season in the bullpen) but has struggled mightily over the last two years. Between 2020-21, Martínez has pitched to a 6.95 ERA/5.18 FIP over 102 1/3 innings, with his once-strong strikeout numbers tailing off.

A lack of starting pitching depth has plagued the Cardinals all season, thanks in part to Martínez’s struggles. St. Louis was known to be on the hunt for pitching help last month, but it’s not clear the club will be in position to buy at the trade deadline. The Cardinals entered play tonight with a 46-47 record; that’s tied with the Cubs for third place in the NL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Brewers. They’re 7.5 back in the Wild Card race, with the Reds and Phillies also between them and the Padres, who currently hold the final playoff position.

Even if the Cardinals don’t wind up being buyers, the organization looks more likely to stand pat in advance of the July 30 trade deadline than orchestrate any type of sell off. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested last weekend selling wasn’t on the table.

As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat explores, there wouldn’t be a ton of obvious trade candidates on the St. Louis roster even if Mozeliak were more amenable to moving some veterans. A majority of the club’s key players are under team control through 2022, and St. Louis is certainly not about to embark on a full rebuild. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Andrew Miller are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, but all three have full no-trade rights — Molina and Wainwright based on their MLB service time, Miller through the terms of his free agent contract. Trading franchise icons like Molina or Wainwright midseason probably wouldn’t be under consideration for the front office regardless.

The one player on the Cardinals who stands out as the most obvious potential trade candidate is southpaw Kwang-hyun Kim. The 32-year-old has performed well over his first two seasons since coming over from the KBO, and he’s ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. There’d surely be demand from contenders seeking pitching help, but it seems there’s a potential obstacle to any Kim deal. A source close to Kim tells Jones the left-hander might consider opting out of the rest of the season and returning to his native South Korea if the Cardinals traded him. If that’s indeed the case, it’d essentially kill any chance of him getting dealt.

Cardinals Sign First-Round Pick Michael McGreevy

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TODAY: McGreevy received an $2.75MM bonus, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (Twitter link).

JULY 16: The Cardinals announced this evening that they’d come to terms on a contract with first-round pick Michael McGreevy. Terms of the deal remain unclear. The slot value for the #18 overall selection, with which McGreevy was selected, is $3.4813MM.

McGreevy dominated hitters over his three-year career at UC Santa-Barbara. The righty worked to a 2.33 ERA across 189 1/3 innings as a Gaucho, striking out 25.1% of batters faced while walking only 4.0% of opponents. The Big West isn’t among Division I baseball’s few best conferences, but there’s still little doubt McGreevy was one of the top performers in the country.

There’s a bit more divisiveness among public evaluators about where exactly he fit among the draft’s top arms, though. Baseball America was extremely bullish on the 21-year-old, naming him the 16th most talented player in the class. BA lauded his elite control and plus curveball in calling him a potential mid-rotation starter.

Each of Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and Keith Law of the Athletic slotted McGreevy between 35th and 50th on their respective draft boards. Those outlets expressed some concerns about McGreevy’s below-average velocity (90-93 MPH range), although he draws unanimous praise for his athleticism and strike-throwing acumen.

Cardinals Not Planning To Sell

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At 44-47, the Cardinals currently sit in fourth place, nine games behind the Brewers for the National League Central lead. But the Cardinals aren’t ready to tear it down and start shedding trade assets. It’s not at all likely that the Cardinals become sellers this July, despite their current place in the standings, per The Athletic’s Katie Woo (via Twitter). Of course, that’s not unusual for the Cardinals, one of the most stable and competitive franchises in the game.

In terms of their chances for contention in 2021, nine games isn’t an inconceivable margin to overcome, though leapfrogging the three teams ahead of them might be as much of a challenge. That said, the Cubs do seem likely to sell, and therefore slip further down the standings as we move into August and September. The Cardinals are also 8.5 games out of a wild card spot, however, so there’s no clear path to a postseason spot.

That said, there are some reinforcements on the way. Both Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty threw bullpens yesterday, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (via Twitter). Mikolas made just one start this year, but he’s been a productive member of the rotation in years past. Flaherty, of course, could be a difference-maker if he’s able to return from his torn oblique.

Jordan Hicks, however, may not return this season, notes Jones. Hicks has been out with elbow inflammation since May 2nd, and there’s still no telling when he might be ready to take the hill again. Given Hicks’ injury history, this latest chapter is particularly disheartening for the 24-year-old flamethrower.

Pitching hasn’t necessarily been the issue for the Cardinals, however. With 360 runs scored, they’ve outscored just the Mets and Pirates, and they are tied with Cleveland for 26th in the Majors with a 88 wRC+. They rank 25th with a .379 SLG and 26th with a .302 OBP. They’re putting the ball in play — 21.9 percent strikeout rate is tied for third-lowest in the Majors — but those balls are largely being turned into outs, as they’re also third-lowest by BABIP with a .272 team batting average on balls in play.

While the Cardinals are built around their pitching and defense, it’s safe to assume they expected more from the offense. They are healthy as a unit now, however, so perhaps the Cardinals expect a second half surge. Regardless, outside of a few veterans like Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Andrew Miller and Kwang Hyun Kim, most of the Cardinals’ roster is controlled beyond this season, so it’s not wholly unreasonable to avoid a sell-off, even if their playoff odds, at the moment, are a slim 1.8 percent, per Fangraphs.

Drew Robinson Announces Retirement

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Former major league outfielder Drew Robinson announced his retirement this evening. His full statement can be found on Twitter.

That Robinson is in position to announce his retirement from affiliated ball is nothing short of remarkable. As he detailed to Jeff Passan of ESPN for an article in February, Robinson attempted suicide in April 2020 amidst a battle with depression. The incident left his right eye beyond repair, but he survived and resumed his career against all odds, signing a minor league deal with the Giants last offseason.

As Robinson explains in his retirement announcement, he’s transitioning to a new role in the San Francisco organization as a mental health advocate. He’ll now be tasked with “(helping) other players address their emotional well-being more comfortably.”

Robinson did not return to the majors with the Giants, but he appeared in the big leagues with the Rangers and Cardinals between 2017-19. He played an even 100 games at the highest level, hitting .202/.296/.359 with nine home runs. There’s no doubt Robinson’s impact on MLB and its fans has gone and will continue to go far beyond his on-field performance. MLBTR congratulates Robinson on making a successful return to professional baseball and wishes him all the best in his new role.

Cardinals Select T.J. McFarland

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The Cardinals announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander T.J. McFarland. Fellow southpaw Brandon Waddell was optioned to Triple-A Memphis and placed on the Covid-19-related injured list in a corresponding move.

McFarland, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Cards earlier this summer. He’s since appeared in four games, holding opponents to a pair of runs on six hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in seven frames. Swapping out Waddell for McFarland will keep three lefties in manager Mike Shildt’s bullpen, as McFarland will join Genesis Cabrera and Andrew Miller in the Cardinals’ relief corps.

An eight-year Major League veteran, McFarland last pitched in the Majors with the 2020 A’s, for whom he notched 20 2/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball. He’s never missed many bats, but McFarland has solid control and is among the game’s best relievers in terms of keeping the ball on the ground. He’s pitched 401 innings since his 2013 MLB debut and compiled a 4.08 ERA with a 13.6 percent strikeout rate, a 7.6 percent walk rate and a gaudy 62.8 percent ground-ball rate.

Cardinals Notes: Hudson, Reyes, Hicks

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The Cardinals have been without right-hander Dakota Hudson all season after the right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery late last September, but the 26-year-old revealed on Instagram last night that he’s progressed to facing live hitters (hat tip: Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, on Twitter). Hudson is working out at the team’s Spring Training facility, per Jones, who adds that there’s a “slim but real chance” he could return to the team late in the 2021 season.

That’d make for one of the quicker Tommy John returns we’ve seen in recent years. Hudson had has operation on Sept. 28, 2020, and we’ve increasingly seen pitchers take closer to 14 months to return. Of course, even if Hudson were to return, he likely wouldn’t be an option for the Cardinals until the final few weeks of the season. Any innings from Hudson would be a bonus, and it’s worth noting that we don’t know what type of role he’d have if he indeed made it back. It’s feasible the Cards would want to limit his pitch counts, so fans shouldn’t bank on Hudson stepping in and salvaging what’s been an injury-decimated starting staff.

A few more notes on the Cardinals’ pitching staff…

  • Alex Reyes has stepped up as an All-Star closer for the Cards in 2021, delivering on the potential that has long made him one of the game’s most prized pitching prospects. However, the right-hander tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he’d still like the opportunity to pitch out of the rotation in 2022. The 26-year-old Reyes has pitched to a minuscule 1.52 ERA and gone 20-for-20 in save chances this season, although his sky-high 18.2 percent walk rate still leaves plenty of room for improvement. This year’s 41 1/3 innings are also the most Reyes has thrown in a single season since 2016, as injuries have decimated the early phases of his career. Reyes totaled just 87 innings combined from 2017-20. The Cardinals control him via arbitration through 2023.
  • Manager Mike Shildt cast some doubt on Jordan Hicks’ recovery timeline in his latest update on the injured righty (via Zachary Silver of MLB.com). Hicks only recently resumed playing catch, and a full return to baseball activities isn’t particularly close, it seems. Silver notes that Schildt indicated that it “remains to be seen” whether Hicks will make it back to the roster in 2021 at all. Hicks hit the injured list in early May with inflammation in his elbow, but additional testing led to an injection that shut him down entirely for a period of six weeks. The 24-year-old, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and opted out of the 2020 season for health concerns (diabetes), has thrown 10 innings in 2021. He’s allowed six runs on five hits and 10 walks with 10 strikeouts. Like Reyes, he’s controllable through the 2023 campaign.

Cardinals Sign Luis Garcia

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The Cardinals announced Friday that they’ve signed free-agent righty Luis Garcia to a Major League contract. He’ll take the 26-man roster spot of Johan Oviedo, who was optioned to Triple-A Memphis yesterday. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the 60-day injured list in order to create a roster spot.

Garcia, 34, spent the first part of the season in the Yankees organization and pitched well for their Triple-A affiliate before being granted his release a couple days ago. In 17 1/3 frames with Scranton, he pitched to a 3.63 ERA with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and a 4.3 percent walk rate.

While Garcia didn’t make it to the big leagues with the Yankees, he’s racked up 315 innings across parts of eight Major League seasons — mostly coming with the Phillies. From 2013-18, Garcia was an oft-used member of the Philadelphia bullpen, pitching to a 4.15 ERA over the life of 244 2/3 innings. His age-30 season, in particular, was an excellent campaign that saw the righty post a career-best 2.65 ERA in a career-high 71 1/3 innings.

Garcia has struggled in the three seasons since that outstanding effort, however, posting a combined 5.26 ERA and 4.94 FIP with the Phillies, Angels and Rangers in that time. He’ll look to right the ship with his fourth big league organization and also give the Cards some depth at a time when their pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries.

Martinez’s move to the 60-day injured list comes just two days after he was placed on the 10-day IL, so he’ll spend the remainder of the 2021 season on the shelf. A lengthy absence was expected to be in store for the right-hander, however, given that he tore a ligament in his right thumb. Martinez has had a roller coaster of a season, pitching to a 6.23 ERA overall, but the overwhelming bulk of the damage against him has been confined to a pair of starts: a 10-run drubbing by the Dodgers on June 2 and an eight-run meltdown in Atlanta just two starts later.

Outside of those two starts, Martinez has been a serviceable member of an increasingly injury-marred Cardinals rotation. He has a combined 4.46 ERA in his other 14 outings and has at the very least kept the Cards in the game more often than not. He’ll now join Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas on the injured list, however, leaving the Cardinals with just three starters on the roster at the moment: Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim and Wade LeBlanc.

Rotation upgrades figure to be the main focus for the Cards as the July 30 trade deadline approaches — at least if they don’t pivot the other direction and sell off some veteran pieces.

Cardinals Place Carlos Martinez On Injured List

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The Cardinals have placed right-hander Carlos Martínez on the 10-day injured list with a right thumb injury. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been recalled from Triple-A Memphis to take his spot on the active roster.

It seems Martínez could be looking at a rather significant absence, as manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that imaging revealed a ligament tear in his thumb. While Martínez had been with the team in San Francisco, he’s now being sent back to St. Louis for further evaluation.

This continues what has been a disappointing season for Martínez. While he’d previously stayed healthy enough to make 16 starts and tally 82 1/3 innings, he’s simply not been particularly effective. Martínez has only managed a 6.23 ERA/5.14 SIERA, striking out just 15.7% of opponents while walking 9.9%. It’s the second straight poor year from Martínez, who had previously looked like a rotation cornerstone after posting high-end numbers from 2015-18 and performing well out of the bullpen in 2019.

Martínez becomes the latest Cardinals starter to go down with injury. St. Louis is already without Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas, and they entered the season knowing they’d go the entire year without Dakota Hudson. The Cards front office had already been known to be prioritizing starting pitching, and Martínez’s injury only adds to that urgency.

At 43-44, the Cardinals sit eight games back of the Brewers in the National League Central. They’re almost equally far back of the Padres in the Wild Card race, with the 45-41 Reds also ahead of them in the pecking order. Given that outlook, it’s arguable the Cardinals should instead turn their attention to 2022 and consider moving some players off the big league roster for young talent rather than adding.

Nevertheless, it seems the current plan for St. Louis is still to try to make a run in 2021. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote this morning — even before news of Martínez’s IL stint — that the Cardinals were expected to look to add a starting pitcher or two and perhaps another position player before the July 30 trade deadline. Given the Cardinals’ place in the standings, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about not wanting to mortgage the farm system to win at all costs this year. That could suggest St. Louis will be more in the mix for veteran stabilizers to plug into the back of the rotation rather than targeting a controllable, mid-rotation type.

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