Cardinals Rumors

Latest On Trade Markets For Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | July 27, 2022 at 5:39pm CDT

Reds righty Luis Castillo and A’s righty Frankie Montas are not and never have been teammates, but their trade markets have been near inextricably linked dating back to the offseason. That’s understandable, given the similarities between them. The 29-year-olds are separated by just three months in age, by about $2MM in salary and are both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Statistically, they’re nearly identical — although Castillo has handled the larger workload in recent years. Both pitch for clubs that were more focused on cutting payroll and stashing prospects than on putting together a 2022 winner. As such, both are obvious trade candidates (and have been since the winter).

The Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees have been the three most aggressive teams on the Montas/Castillo front, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, with the Twins, Blue Jays and Padres each also in the fold to varying extents. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also hears the Yankees are involved on both hurlers and calls adding a starter “a priority” for New York.

Bolstering the rotation is similarly going to be a key objective for St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz to injury in recent weeks. Flaherty is already on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least late August due to a shoulder strain. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee over the weekend. John Denton of MLB.com wrote a few days ago that Matz was optimistic about avoiding season-ending surgery, but he’s expected to be sidelined into September even if he can rehab without going under the knife.

The Cardinals also faced a rotation shortage at last summer’s deadline. They addressed that rather modestly, acquiring veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as strike-throwing stabilizers at the back of the rotation. Robert Murray of FanSided reported last night the front office was looking for a higher-impact hurler than a Lester/Happ type this year, and a pursuit of Castillo and/or Montas certainly aligns with that assessment. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, meanwhile, writes that the Cardinals have explored the market for both impending free agents and starters with multiple remaining seasons of club control.

New York, meanwhile, recently lost Luis Severino to the injured list on account of a lat strain. New York welcomed back Domingo Germán to take his rotation spot, but there’s not a ton of proven healthy depth beyond their top five. The Yankees have also seen righty Jameson Taillon scuffle of late, leaving them scouring the market for additional help. Like the Cardinals, they seem to be casting a wide net. In addition to high-impact hurlers in the Castillo/Montas range, they’ve also been linked to Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who’d be a lower-cost depth pickup at the back end.

As for the Mariners, they have a range of areas they can add over the next six days. The M’s just wrapped up a sweep of the Rangers to pull to 54-45. They’re ten games back of the Astros in the AL West but in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re three games clear of the Guardians, the non-playoff team with the best record in the league.

With a strong opportunity to snap a playoff drought that has lasted more than two decades, the Mariners are in position to seek impact talent. Seattle entered play Wednesday with the sixth-lowest rotation ERA (3.65) in the majors. They’re middle-of-the-pack from a strikeout/walk perspective, however, with both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales posting below-average strikeout rates. There are also possible innings concerns for highly-touted rookie George Kirby, who has already tallied 96 frames this season between the minors and big leagues. That’s above the 67 2/3 innings he logged in the upper minors last year, so there’s certainly room for another starter to relieve some of the pressure on Kirby down the stretch and for what the club hopes will be a postseason run.

NL West Notes: Soto, Padres, Merrill, Wood, Giants, Heaney, Taylor

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2022 at 10:47pm CDT

Speculation continues to swirl over which team (if any) could pry Juan Soto away from the Nationals before the trade deadline, or even which clubs are the top contenders as we approach August 2. According to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post, the Nats may be “focusing on one or two teams at the moment,” with the Cardinals seen by some rivals as a likely contender to be one of those clubs due to St. Louis’ amount of MLB-ready talent. As far as the NL West goes, however, a rival executive tells The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “I think San Diego is as likely as the other 28 teams combined. They have the players and they have [A.J.] Preller.”

Certainly, the Padres’ president of baseball operations is always open to bold moves, and that confidence extends to the team’s prospects in the sense that the Padres “are confident they can keep replenishing their farm system.” While San Diego has already dealt quality blue-chippers in other deals over the years, more intriguing new names keep emerging. For instance, Rosenthal writes that teams have shown interest in shortstop Jackson Merrill and outfielder James Wood, the Padres’ two top picks from the 2021 draft. Merrill and Wood were both high school selections who are still a few years away from the bigs, so in regards to Soto, the Padres could hang onto the young duo as future building blocks while dealing other prospects who better fit the Nationals’ demands.

Cardinals To Place Goldschmidt, Arenado, Romine On Restricted List; Matz Placed On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2022 at 3:56pm CDT

3:56PM: Matz has a torn MCL in his left knee, MLB.com’s John Denton reports (via Twitter). Based similar injuries to other players, this will likely mean at least a 4-6 week absence for Matz, though it isn’t yet known if he’ll require surgery.

3:38PM: The Cardinals announced some roster moves today, one in regards to today’s game and three others in advance of their upcoming two-game series in Toronto. Most immediately, left-hander Steven Matz was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left knee sprain, and righty James Naile was called up from Triple-A Memphis.

Before Tuesday’s game against the Blue Jays, the Cards will place Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Austin Romine on the restricted list. The trio aren’t vaccinated, and thus become the latest players ineligible to cross the border due to Canadian federal vaccine mandates. Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Romine will forfeit two games’ worth of salary for the missed time. Catcher Ivan Herrera, utilityman Cory Spangenberg, and outfielder Conner Capel are expected to be added to the roster as replacements.

Most teams traveling to Toronto this season have had to work around at least a couple of vaccine-related absences, with the Royals (who had 10 players on their restricted list) representing the extreme end of the scale. While St. Louis is missing “only” three players, however, losing superstars like Goldschmidt and Arenado for even two games certainly isn’t an ideal situation. Losing Romine also thins out a catching depth chart that is still missing the injured Yadier Molina.

Johan Oviedo’s status for the Blue Jays series is also in question, as the Cards reliever and Cuba native has an expired passport. Manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Oviedo might still be able to make it if he is able to obtain a special temporary waiver from the Canadian consulate in Miami.

While Matz wouldn’t have pitched in the series since he just started yesterday, he’ll also miss a chance to return to Toronto after pitching for the Jays in 2021. Matz was only activated from the 15-day IL earlier this week, after missing two months due to a shoulder impingement. Unfortunately, the southpaw then hurt his knee in his very first start back, as Matz took an awkward step while trying to field a grounder in the sixth inning of Saturday’s 6-3 victory over the Reds. Matz still earned the win, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk in his 5 1/3 innings of work while striking out seven.

It was a solid outing in what has been an otherwise tough season for Matz, between his earlier injury and his inconsistent work over his first nine outings. Even with Saturday’s game factored in, Matz still has a 5.70 ERA over 42 2/3 innings in his first season in a Cardinals uniform. However, a 3.13 SIERA and strong strikeout and walk rates indicate that Matz has also been pretty unlucky, as he isn’t getting much good fortune on the BABIP (.336) and strand rate (66.2%) fronts.

Saturday’s start was a step in the right direction, and yet it will now be some time before Matz can follow up on that performance. The lefty will undergo more tests and imaging, and a clearer timeline could soon be known about when Matz might be able to get back on a mound.

The Cardinals were already rumored to be looking into rotation help at the deadline, so Matz’s IL status will likely only deepen the team’s needs. In the short term, however, St. Louis only has five games over the next eight days, so all of these off-days can allow the Cards to get by with less than five starters. Dakota Hudson is tentatively slated to be activated from his own 15-day IL stint next weekend, after hitting the IL on July 15 due to a neck strain.

NL Notes: Castillo, Moose, Solano, Matz, Longoria, Padres

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2022 at 9:45pm CDT

Luis Castillo is drawing loads of attention as the trade deadline nears, and according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds’ focus seems to be on getting young talent for Castillo rather than using him as an avenue to cut payroll. The idea of having a rival team take on Mike Moustakas’ contract as part of a Castillo deal hasn’t come up in recent negotiations, Nightengale writes, though the Reds were open to such a concept in other talks last year. However, as Cincinnati has moved some salaries off the books in subsequent deals, payroll cuts no longer seem to be as big a priority.

Castillo isn’t the only trade chip on the roster, as the Reds put “a high asking price” on infielder Donovan Solano in recent talks with an unknown club. Solano has hit an impressive .313/.371/.450 in 89 plate appearances this season, trying to make up for lost time after a hamstring injury delayed his 2022 debut until June 22. Cincinnati inked Solano to a one-year, $4.5MM deal in March, so he would be a pure rental for any club looking to add a versatile infielder and veteran right-handed bat to the mix.

Draft Signings: Angels, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates

By Anthony Franco | July 22, 2022 at 8:50pm CDT

A pair of top ten picks, Gavin Cross and Elijah Green, agreed to terms with their teams today. A host of other high picks are set to enter pro ball, as well. We’ll round up other signings among the top 40 here:

The Angels are in agreement with #13 overall pick Zach Neto, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (on Twitter). He receives a $3.5MM signing bonus, below the $4.41MM slot value associated with the pick. A 21-year-old shortstop out of Campbell, Neto was ranked the #16 prospect in the draft class by Baseball America. A well-rounded infielder, the righty-hitting Neto is seen as a possible hit-first shortstop at the major league level. He dominated Big South pitching over his three years with the Camels, including a .407/.514/.769 showing in 256 plate appearances as a junior.
The Mets announced they’ve reached an agreement with #14 selection Jett Williams. The 18-year-old infielder signs for a $3.9MM bonus, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). That’s a bit below the $4.24MM slot value that accompanies the #14 pick. Williams, a switch-hitter from a Texas high school, had been committed to Mississippi State. The #15 prospect in the class according to BA, he’s credited with advanced bat-to-ball skills and surprising bat speed for a player who’s listed at 5’8″ and 185 pounds. The outlet raises some questions about whether he can stick at shortstop but suggests he’s athletic enough to play up-the-middle in some capacity.
The Braves have an agreement with #20 selection Owen Murphy, Callis reports (Twitter link). It’s a $2.5569MM bonus, below the $3.4MM slot value. A right-hander out of an Illinois high school, Murphy will forego his commitment to Notre Dame. BA rated the 18-year-old as the #45 prospect in the class, writing that he relies heavily on an upper 70s breaking ball that has the potential to be a plus offering.
The Cardinals announced they’ve signed #22 pick Cooper Hjerpe. Callis reports (on Twitter) that he’ll receive a $3.1822MM signing bonus that matches the pick’s slot value. Hjerpe was one of the top college pitchers in the country, tossing 103 1/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball with a 39.6% strikeout rate during his junior season at Oregon State. BA rated Hjerpe as the #33 prospect in the class, praising the life he gets on his fastball at the top of the strike zone and his strike-throwing ability.
The Brewers announced an agreement with #27 pick Eric Brown Jr., which Callis reports is worth $2.15MM (Twitter link). The slot value for the selection is $2.7MM. A shortstop from Coastal Carolina, Brown was the draft’s #55 prospect according to BA. The outlet coincidentally likens his unusual hitting setup to the one Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell utilized as a player, but notes that Brown consistently posts solid exit velocity numbers and has a chance to stick at shortstop. The 21-year-old hit .330/.460/.544 during his junior year in Conway.
The Braves agreed to terms with #35 selection J.R. Ritchie, Callis reports (Twitter link). It’s a $2.4MM bonus, above the $2.0232MM slot value. A right-handed pitcher from a Washington state high school, Ritchie had been a UCLA commit. BA slotted the 19-year-old as the #52 prospect in the class, crediting him with a solid three-pitch mix (headlined by an above-average slider) and advanced control.
The Pirates announced a deal with #36 selection Thomas Harrington. The right-hander out of Campbell receives a $2.05MM signing bonus, reports Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). That’s a hair south of the $2.15MM slot value. Harrington was the #45 prospect available, according to BA, which projects him for a pair of above-average secondary offerings (slider and changeup) and possible plus control. The 21-year-old worked 92 2/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball this season, fanning 30% of batters faced with a sparkling 4.9% walk percentage.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Market

By Darragh McDonald | July 21, 2022 at 3:52pm CDT

Ever since it emerged that the Nationals are willing to entertain trade offers on Juan Soto, the whole baseball world has been obsessed with trying to figure out where he could go and what a fair trade would even look like. That likely won’t change, with Soto rumors sure to continue flying every day until the August 2 deadline, unless a trade is completed sooner.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the situation, outlining how Soto is arguably the most attractive trade chip in recent memory or perhaps ever. Given his talent, youth and remaining years of control, just about every team is going to be calling the Nats and getting a feel for what kind of deal they’re looking to make.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the discussions have begun and, unsurprisingly, Soto is drawing widespread interest. He lists the Mariners, Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees and Mets as seven teams that have already opened up the lines of communication with Washington.

None of those are particularly surprising, with all seven of them having been listed by Adams as being among the best fits. There is a potential complicating factor in the talks, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Nationals want to combine Soto with Patrick Corbin in trades, in order to get Corbin’s contract off their books. As an additional detail, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looks at the pros and cons of including Corbin in the deal, adding that Corbin has a partial no-trade clause. Despite that, Dougherty adds that this won’t prevent a deal from coming together, implying that either Corbin’s clause is minimal enough to not include the primary suitors, or perhaps that he would be willing to waive the clause and move to a new club with Soto.

While the Nationals are surely open to moving Corbin and getting out from under his contract, it’s unclear how important that is to them. Signed to a six-year, $140MM contract prior to 2019, the first season was a resounding success. Corbin threw 202 innings with a 3.25 ERA, then added another 23 1/3 frames in the postseason as the Nats won the first World Series title in the history of the franchise. It’s been essentially all downhill since then, however, with Corbin’s strikeouts disappearing and ERA escalating. After strikeout rates of 30.8% in 2018 and 28.5% in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% in the three subsequent seasons. His ERA shot up to 4.66 in 2020, then 5.82 last year and 5.87 this year.

As for Corbin’s contract, it was heavily backloaded. His salary this year is $23.42MM, leaving approximately $8MM to be paid out from the deadline onwards. Then he’ll make $24.42MM next year and a big jump to $35.42 in 2024. That’s the last year of the deal, though there’s also $10MM in deferred money to be paid out from November of 2024 to January of 2026.

The combination of Corbin’s poor performance and hefty salary give him negative trade value. As such, any Corbin-Soto combo trade will lead to the Nationals recouping a lesser prospect package than a trade involving Soto alone. On the surface, it seems strange that the Nats would be strongly motivated towards such a scenario. Trading Soto means giving up on being competitive through 2024 anyhow, so getting Corbin’s contract off the books for that season shouldn’t be a high priority. With Soto out of the picture, the only other meaningful salary they will be paying in 2024 and beyond is going to Stephen Strasburg, who’s getting $35MM per year through 2026. Spending $70MM to Strasburg and Corbin in 2024 surely isn’t ideal, but the rest of the roster will likely be filled out with pre-arb players or those who have just qualified and earned minimal raises. The club ran a payroll of $183MM as recently as last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and has already stripped it down to $135MM this year.

But if the Nats are indeed motivated to get that money off the ledger ahead of schedule, it will change the calculus of which teams make the most sense as trading partners. Teams on the receiving end will be taking on two meaningful salaries, as Soto is well-paid himself. He’s earning $17.1MM this year and will be due arbitration raises in the next two campaigns, possibly getting near the $25MM range next year and above $30MM for 2024, as long as he stays healthy. Even for the rest of this campaign, Soto will have about $6MM left to be paid out at the time of the deadline. Combined with the approximately $8MM owed to Corbin, that will add $14MM to this year’s payroll for any team acquiring both.

As Steve Adams highlighted in the piece linked above, all seven teams that Nightengale listed have marquee young players that could headline a return in a Soto deal. The prospect of taking Corbin in return might be more exciting to some than others, however. The Padres crossed the luxury tax line last year and have been right up against it this year, seemingly loath to cross it for a second straight season and therefore facing escalating penalties. They’ve been rumored to be trying to trade away one of their pitchers in order to create payroll space for additions elsewhere. Suddenly acquiring another expensive starter, and one who isn’t pitching well, would fly in the face of those plans. Although, perhaps Soto’s availability is such a unique situation that it makes them rethink everything.

The Cardinals had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM, per Cot’s, which is a bit shy of their $164MM record. Adding $14MM to get into record territory is likely an acceptable outcome this year, but would become complicated in the years to come. Adam Wainwright’s $17.5MM is the biggest contract coming off the books at the end of the year, but there would likely be mutual interest in another deal, based on precedent. He’s having another excellent season and would likely command a similar contract. Yadier Molina’s $10MM is coming off the books, though Soto and Corbin would add about $50MM onto it, and the Cards would still have to figure out a solution behind the plate.

The Mets already have a massive payroll but don’t seem to have any limitations in that regard. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed a willingness to spend beyond the fourth CBT barrier, which the club is already right on top of. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource calculates their CBT number as $290.1MM, a smidge over the $290MM barrier. Regardless of the financial picture, however, there’s the question of whether the Nats have any interest in trading Soto within the division. Andy Martino of SNY reports that Soto landing with the Mets is extremely unlikely, with the Nats not keen on seeing Soto return to Washington so frequently with a new uniform.

The Giants and Mariners might be in a better position than these other teams to take on meaningful salary in order to get Soto. The Giants had a payroll of $155MM on Opening Day, per Cot’s, but were up at $201MM a few years ago. They also have some decent money coming off the books this winter. Carlos Rodon is making $21.5MM and can opt out if he reaches 110 innings pitched. Given that he’s currently at 105 and having another excellent season, he’s a virtual lock to trigger that opt-out. Brandon Belt accepted the $18.4MM qualifying offer and will return to the open market in a few months. Brandon Crawford is making $16MM this year and next, but a free agent after that. The only guaranteed contract they have on the books for 2024 is the $12MM owed to Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners opened the year at $104MM, per Cot’s, but have been in the $150-160 range in recent years.

As for the Yankees and Dodgers, they’re both running franchise-high payrolls but might still like the idea of Corbin’s contract being involved. Recent reporting has suggested both clubs are leery of decimating their farm systems in order to acquire Soto, despite his talents. Taking on Corbin and reducing the prospect hit should appeal to both clubs.

Of course, all this still seems to be exploratory on the part of the Nationals. Getting rid of Corbin’s money surely has appeal, but they will also have to weigh that against the offers they get that don’t involve Corbin. If one teams offers, say, six good prospects but doesn’t want Corbin, would the Nats really take a less package just to get Corbin out the door? There’s at least some precedent, given that the Red Sox included David Price in the Mookie Betts deal. However, the situations are not entirely analogous, as the Red Sox had gone over the luxury tax in the two previous seasons and were primarily interested in tearing down their roster for the cost savings. For the Nats, they are already operating with a budget well below previous seasons and should theoretically be more concerned with maximizing their prospect return in any Soto deal.

IL Transactions: Matz, VerHagen, Lynch, De Jong

By Mark Polishuk | July 17, 2022 at 4:10pm CDT

The Cardinals activated left-hander Steven Matz off the 15-day injured list today, as Matz was slated to start the Cardinals’ game against the Reds before the contest was rained out. Matz will now have to wait until after the All-Star break to make his official return to the field, as he has been sidelined since May 22 due to a shoulder impingement. With the Cards in need of rotation help, a healthy and effective Matz would be a major boost to the team, as both sides must hope that this two-month absence can essentially be a restart on Matz’s season. After signing a four-year, $44MM free agent deal with St. Louis in November, Matz stumbled out of the gate with a 6.03 ERA over his first 37 1/3 innings in a Cardinals uniform.

To create room on the active roster, St. Louis placed right-hander Drew VerHagen on the 15-day IL with a right hip impingement. A similar injury sent VerHagen to the injured list for a little over three weeks earlier this season, and the righty was just activated from another IL stint (due to shoulder problems) earlier this week. With all of these health issues, it perhaps isn’t surprising that VerHagen has only a 6.65 ERA over 21 2/3 innings, with walks and home runs being particular issues for the 31-year-old. VerHagen is another offseason signing for the Cards, joining the team on a two-year, $5.5MM deal after spending the previous two seasons pitching in Japan.

More comings and goings off the injured list from around the league…

The Royals placed left-hander Daniel Lynch on the 15-day IL, as Lynch is again dealing with a blister problem. Lynch had already been sent to the IL with that same blister issue on June 24, and he was activated earlier this week and made two abbreviated starts before returning to the sidelines. It has been a difficult season for Lynch, who has a 5.05 ERA and a wealth of troubling Statcast metrics over 15 starts and 71 1/3 innings. Lynch’s IL placement was part of a busy day of roster moves for the Royals, who sent 10 players (Angel Zerpa, Nick Pratto, Gabe Speier, Collin Snider, Brewer Hicklen, Michael Massey, Freddy Fermin, Nate Eaton to Triple-A; Sebastian Rivero and Maikel Garcia to Double-A) to the minors in the aftermath of their series in Toronto. This clears the way for the return of 10 Kansas City players, who were placed on the restricted list due to their non-vaccinated status.
The Pirates placed righty Chase De Jong on the 15-day IL due to tendinitis in his left knee, and Bryse Wilson (today’s starting pitcher against the Rockies) was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Another knee injury is perhaps a red flag for De Jong, who underwent surgery on that same left knee last year. The surgery cut short De Jong’s first season in Pittsburgh, but after signing another minor league deal with the Bucs this past winter, De Jong has rebounded to post a 2.06 ERA over 35 relief innings in 2022.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

By Brad Johnson | July 15, 2022 at 3:05pm CDT

This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

List Of Home Run Derby Contestants

By Anthony Franco | July 14, 2022 at 6:32pm CDT

July 14: Rangers shortstop Corey Seager will return to Dodger Stadium as the final Derby participant, Texas announced. Seager, who was also named to the American League All-Star team this afternoon as an injury replacement, has hit 21 homers on the season. He also appeared in the 2016 Home Run Derby.

July 13, 6:25pm: Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez will also participate, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Ramirez has never participated in the Derby before, but he’ll join the event amidst a 17-homer season. Like Rodriguez, he’ll be part of the American League All-Star team the following night.

July 13, 3:50pm: Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez announced on social media that he will be joining the contest. As a rookie, this will naturally be his first appearance in the derby.

July 12: Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has joined the field, with Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relaying that he himself posted about it on Instagram.

July 11, 9:21pm: Nationals star Juan Soto will also participate. The Talk Nats blog first reported (on Twitter) that Soto would accept an invitation if offered and Héctor Gómez of Z101 confirmed he’d be in the event. Soto, who was a part of last year’s event, has hit 17 longballs on the season. He’ll also be part of the NL All-Star Team the following night.

7:06pm: The 2022 Home Run Derby will take place next Monday, and the field is beginning to take shape. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. each announced this afternoon that they’d be participating, while Katie Woo of the Athletic reports that Cardinals designated hitter Albert Pujols will partake as well.

Pujols’ participation is the most surprising (and notable) of the three. He’s a four-time contestant but hasn’t appeared in a Derby in more than a decade. He’s only hit five longballs this year but twice led the National League during his first stint in St. Louis and is fifth all-time in homers. In his final big league season, Pujols is already set to head to the All-Star Game in recognition of his career. He’ll add the Derby to the celebration.

Alonso is hoping to defend his two straight titles. The New York slugger won in 2019, then backed that up with another championship last year. (The 2020 Derby was canceled). Along the way, he knocked off Acuña in the semifinals during the 2019 event. Atlanta’s star outfielder will join the festivities for a second time. Both Alonso and Acuña will team with Pujols on the NL All-Stars; Alonso is a reserve, while Acuña will be in Brian Snitker’s starting lineup.

Giants Claim Angel Rondón From Cardinals

By Darragh McDonald | July 13, 2022 at 4:10pm CDT

The Giants announced to reporters, including Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com, that they have claimed right-handed pitcher Angel Rondón off waivers from the Cardinals. He had been designated for assignment by the Cards last week. The Giants had an open spot on their 40-man roster after designating Jake McGee for assignment recently.

Rondón, 24, was signed by the Cardinals out of the Dominican Republic and made his affiliated debut back in 2016. He was largely a starter at the beginning of his career but has thrown out of the bullpen more after reaching the upper levels. He made his MLB debut last year but threw just two innings. This year, he has just a single appearance at the big league level. After Steven Matz started the game against the Pirates on May 22, he departed after just four pitches. Rondon entered and threw five scoreless frames, but was optioned out for a fresh arm the next day. That gives him seven total innings of MLB experience without allowing an earned run so far.

Through 49 Triple-A innings on the year, he has a 4.04 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate but a concerning walk rate of 15.3%. Five of his 18 appearances have been starts, though those were mostly of the “opener” variety. He still has youth on his side and is in his second option year, meaning he can be stashed in the minors for the rest of this season as well as another campaign. That makes him a fairly sensible add for the Giants, who have already optioned him to Triple-A. He can stay in Sacramento as depth until needed or until he forces his way onto the big league team.

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