Cardinals Rumors

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs

By TC Zencka | August 27, 2022 at 8:35am CDT

The Cardinals are hopeful that Steven Matz will return from his stint on the injured list soon, but when he does, it will be as a reliever, per MLB.com’s John Denton (via Twitter). There simply isn’t time remaining in the season to build him back up as a starter. The switch is partly because of Matz, but also due to the expectation that Jack Flaherty will return to the rotation potentially next Wednesday or the following weekend, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Not to mention, deadline acquisitions Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery have excelled in the rotation since their arrival. In the bullpen, Matz can provide manager Oliver Marmol with another weapon from the left side to augment current southpaws Genesis Cabrera and JoJo Romero. Elsewhere in the NL Central…

Deadline acquisition Trevor Rosenthal left his latest appearance in Triple-A with lat soreness, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Picking up Rosenthal was certainly a bit of a lottery ticket for the Brewers, given that Rosenthal hasn’t pitched since 2020. Rosenthal had begun to show shades of his former self, posting a 1.90 ERA over 23 2/3 innings with the Royals and Padres. The hits keep coming for Rosenthal, who suffered a hamstring strain before the lat injury, which all came while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.
The Cubs will be looking to add power this offseason, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. That certainly tracks for a team with a middle infield consisting of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal, both of whom boast contact-first profiles at the dish. Hoerner has stepped up this season, both on the field and from a leadership perspective, making himself a key part of the Cubs’ future. Madrigal has had a less memorable campaign, but he may yet establish himself as the second baseman of the future. The power will have to come from somewhere, however, especially with Willson Contreras slated for free agency. Contreras’ 20 home runs rank second on the team behind Patrick Wisdom’s 22, and the long-time catcher is the team leader in isolated power with a .222 ISO.

NL Central Notes: Matz, Perez, Pirates, Reds Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | August 25, 2022 at 9:24am CDT

Steven Matz suffered a torn left MCL in late July, leading to fear that the left-hander’s season would possibly be over, even if surgery wasn’t required. However, Matz is now making increased progress towards a return, with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol telling reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Matz’s knee was pain-free while fielding some grounders on Wednesday. Matz also threw 30 pitches off the mound during the warm-up session. It could mean that Matz is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, though the Cardinals will continue to closely monitor his status considering his lack of workload.

Matz has pitched just once since May 22, as a shoulder impingement kept him on the injured list for almost two months, and he then suffered his MCL injury in his first start back off the IL. St. Louis has Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and trade deadline acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana all thriving in the rotation, so if Matz is able to return, he could be used in a bullpen role or competing with Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, or another rehabbing starter in Jack Flaherty for that final spot in the rotation. The Cardinals could potentially also explore using a six-man rotation down the stretch, or perhaps just give some of their regulars some rest if the Cards can clinch the NL Central title relatively early. With a 17-5 record thus far in August, the Cards have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the struggling Brewers in the division race.

Some other items from around the Central…

Roberto Perez believes “there’s interest from both parties” in a new deal between the Pirates and the veteran catcher, Perez told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). Perez inked a one-year, $5MMM free agent contract with the Pirates last winter, but played in only 21 games before undergoing season-ending surgery on his left hamstring. The catcher confirmed that his season is indeed over, as he had been hoping to make enough rehab progress to return for the final few games of the schedule. Re-signing Perez would add a seasoned backstop to a Pittsburgh catching mix that doesn’t include a lot of big league experience, though the Bucs are hoping that if all goes well, former first overall pick Henry Davis might be able to make his MLB debut before the 2023 season is up.
The Reds dealt away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline, in a flurry of rebuilding moves that added a lot of depth and quality to Cincinnati’s farm system. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores the front office’s approach to the deadline, which first included some last-minute contract extension talks with Castillo and Drury’s representatives. When those talks didn’t result in much progress, the Reds shifted focus to the trade market, with GM Nick Krall noting that the interest in Castillo allowed them to make high initial asks. If other clubs weren’t open to that first ask, “then we can just move on….It was a pretty good way to trim the number (of teams) down from the very beginning,” Krall said. Cincinnati had always targeted Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo when speaking with the Mariners, and both of those highly-regarded infield prospects ended up included in the package the Reds received for Castillo. The Reds also had several offers on the table for Mahle and Drury, with the front office ultimately deciding that the offers from the Twins (for Mahle) and Padres (for Drury) were the best of the group.

Cardinals Re-Sign T.J. McFarland

By Mark Polishuk | August 23, 2022 at 12:31pm CDT

After releasing T.J. McFarland last week, the Cardinals announced that the veteran left-hander has been re-signed to a minor league deal. McFarland will report to the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate in Memphis.

Now in his second season with the Cards, McFarland pitched well in 2021 but has struggled to a 6.61 ERA over 32 2/3 frames this season. Low-strikeout pitchers who heavily rely on ground balls are perhaps more prone to big swings in performance, and in McFarland’s case, an increase in hard contact, a jump in BABIP (from .261 in 2021 to .333 this year), and a decrease in grounder rate (53% this season, 63.7% in 2021) have all combined to ruin McFarland’s performance. His strand rate is also an abnormally low 60.4%, and his walk rate is also up from last season.

McFarland’s sinker (his primary pitch) is the best illustration of how his performance has tended to vary over his 10 MLB seasons. When the southpaw had a 2.00 ERA over 72 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2018, McFarland’s sinker was one of the most effective pitches in all of baseball, and he also had great success with the pitch in 2021. When the sinker isn’t only an average or below-average pitch, however, batters have feasted.

Retaining McFarland on a minors contract is a low-risk move for the Cardinals, as some time in Triple-A could help the 33-year-old get back on track. St. Louis has plenty of other left-handed options in their bullpen for the stretch run and potentially into the playoffs, but a McFarland who can rediscover his 2021 form would give the Cardinals another nice depth option.

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Peterson, Wisdom, Miley, Overton

By Mark Polishuk | August 21, 2022 at 4:05pm CDT

Albert Pujols’ recent hot streak hasn’t changed the legendary slugger’s mind about retirement, as Pujols told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he is “still going to retire” at season’s end. Despite a 1.428 OPS in 53 plate appearances since the All-Star break and his ever-nearing proximity to some notable milestones, Pujols confirmed that he hasn’t thought about playing in 2023.

“I don’t get caught up in numbers. If you were going to tell me 22 years ago that I would be this close, I would have told you that you’re freakin’ crazy,” Pujols said. “My career has been amazing…I’ve had enough. I’m glad I made the announcement this was it when I signed. Really, I wouldn’t change a thing.”

Pujols now has 692 career homers, making it a realistic possibility that he can pass Alex Rodriguez (696 homers) on the all-time list and perhaps even become the fourth player in history to reach the 700-homer threshold. After last night’s four-hit performance against the Diamondbacks, Pujols is also now second on the all-time total bases list, passing another Cardinals legend in Stan Musial. Interestingly, Nightengale also notes that Pujols’ desire to return to St. Louis led him to pass up on offers from three other teams this winter, even though those other clubs were offering either more playing time or more money than Pujols’ $2.5MM salary for 2022.

Quick Hits: Maddon, Molina, Hernandez, Gilbert

By Mark Polishuk | August 20, 2022 at 9:47pm CDT

After being fired as the Angels manager in June, Joe Maddon would like to return to baseball, but “right now I need to get tired of what I’m doing in order to want to do something else,” Maddon told Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. The veteran skipper is enjoying a rare “summer vacation” of sorts, and would only be interested in a managerial or advisory job with a team that had a “strong balance between the old and the new” approaches to the game, and not too tilted in favor of analytics.

It seems clear that Maddon didn’t feel this balance existed in Anaheim. In general, Maddon felt the Angels’ “infrastructure needs to be improved….It’s the non-sexy stuff that has to get better. It’s not just bright, shiny objects — they have that. They need to do the infrastructure better in order to get to where we had been in the past.” Maddon also implied that the front office tried to have too much of an influence on baseball decisions, thus trying to turn the manager into a “middle man” rather than an actual leader in the clubhouse.

“It’s at the point where some GM should really just put a uniform on and go down to the dugout, or their main analytical membrane, he should go down to the dugout….And what happens is when the performance isn’t what they think it should be, it’s never about the acquisitional process,” Maddon said. “It’s always about the inability of coaches and managers to get the best out of a player. And that’s where this tremendous disconnect is formed.”

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

By Brad Johnson | August 19, 2022 at 5:15pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Cardinals Release T.J. McFarland

By Steve Adams | August 15, 2022 at 9:09am CDT

The Cardinals have released left-hander T.J. McFarland following last week’s DFA, as first indicated on their transactions log at MLB.com. He’s free to sign with any of the 29 other clubs and, so long as he’s in a new organization prior to Sept. 1, could be postseason-eligible with that new team.

Of course, the veteran McFarland would need to rediscover his 2021 form before even being considered for such a role with a new team. The 33-year-old was a rock-solid member of the Cardinals’ bullpen last year, racking up groundouts in droves (63.7%) while rarely issuing free passes (6.3%) or surrendering home runs (0.70 HR/9). Despite a paltry 14.6% strikeout rate, that blend of grounders and lack of walks/dingers resulted in a 2.56 ERA through 38 2/3 frames. Fielding-independent metrics weren’t as bullish but generally pegged the southpaw as a quality bullpen option (3.78 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.85 SIERA).

McFarland faced exactly one more batter with the Cardinals in 2022 (145) than he did in 2021 (144), but his return stint in St. Louis proved nightmarish in that near-identical sample. All of his rate stats trended in the wrong direction (11% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 53% grounder rate, 1.38 HR/9) — and so, too, did his results. In 32 2/3 innings, McFarland was rocked for a 6.61 ERA. Fewer strikeouts and grounders, paired with a considerable uptick in walks, long balls and general hard contact is hardly a recipe for success for any pitcher, after all.

That said, McFarland’s 88.9 mph average sinker in 2022 was pretty closely in line with his 89.2 mph average in 2021, and even his “diminished” walk and ground-ball rates are well better than the league average. The bottom-of-the-barrel strikeout rate is an obvious concern, but McFarland has never been one to miss bats (13.8% career strikeout rate) and nonetheless still carries a 4.13 ERA in 472 1/3 Major League frames.

If a new team can help McFarland get his sinker back on track and bump that grounder rate closer to the 63% mark he carried into the season, it’s possible he could get back on track and contribute some useful innings in the season’s final few weeks. The Cardinals are paying the remainder of this year’s $2.5MM salary regardless, so a new club would only need to pay McFarland the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. At the very least, any contender looking for some lefty depth to stash in Triple-A could take a chance on stashing McFarland in the upper minors.

Cardinals Designate T.J. McFarland For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | August 10, 2022 at 4:25pm CDT

The Cardinals announced that they have recalled right-hander Jake Woodford from Memphis, with lefty T.J. McFarland being designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

McFarland, 33, is a veteran playing in his tenth MLB season, having previously suited up for the Orioles, Diamondbacks and Athletics. Last year, he signed a minor league deal with the Nationals but was granted his release in order to pursue an opportunity with the Cardinals. That ended up working out very well for McFarland and the Cards, as he registered an ERA of 2.56 over 38 2/3 innings with the club. McFarland was always a low-strikeout, high-grounder guy, which he continued with a 14.6% strikeout rate and 63.7% ground ball rate.

It seems both sides were quite happy with the arrangement, as the Cardinals quickly re-signed McFarland on the first day of free agency last year. The southpaw is making a salary of $2.5MM this year, with $500K of incentives also in the deal. Unfortunately, things have taken a sour turn here in 2022, with McFarland currently wearing an ERA of 6.61. His ground ball rate, while still above average, has slid to 53%. His strikeout rate has slid even further below average, coming in at 11% on the season. He’s also seen his BABIP jump up to .333 after being at .261 last year and his HR/FB jump from 12% to 16.7%. Based on the poor results, the Cardinals have decided to go in a different direction.

With the trade deadline now in the rearview mirror, the Cardinals will only be able to choose between placing McFarland on outright waivers or release waivers. It’s effectively a moot point, as McFarland has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency. Though his salary isn’t exorbitant, he’s likely to go unclaimed on waivers and become a free agent again. Once that happens, he could garner interest from teams around the league, despite his down year. Left-handed relief is always in demand and many teams are lacking in that department. Both the Mariners and the Blue Jays, for instance, are currently without even a single southpaw in their respective bullpens.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 9, 2022 at 11:57pm CDT

A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four- and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Injury Notes: Gore, Bryant, Flaherty, Twins

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 8, 2022 at 2:58pm CDT

Newly acquired Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore will resume throwing this Friday, manager Dave Martinez told reporters this weekend (Twitter link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Gore, the former No. 3 overall draft pick and top pitching prospect in the sport, has been sidelined since July 25 due to elbow soreness. A previous MRI did not reveal structural damage, however, and the Nats were clearly comfortable with Gore’s medical records upon reviewing them in advance of the Juan Soto blockbuster that sent him from San Diego to Washington. Presumably, he’ll require a minor league rehab stint before jumping into the big league mix for the Nationals, but Friday’s throwing session will be an important first step to monitor as he begins that progression. Assuming good health, Gore looks poised to play a pivotal long-term role in the Nationals’ rotation, joining Josiah Gray (acquired in last summer’s Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal) as a building block acquired at the deadline.

Gore absolutely overpowered opponents through early June, pitching to a 1.50 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate across the first 48 innings of his career. He’s been tagged for 27 runs in 22 innings since that time, however, working with diminished velocity along the way. Gore only pitched 50 1/3 innings last year (plus some work at the team’s Spring Training complex while going through a mechanical reset), so workload was always expected to be something of an issue in 2022. The Nationals have not made clear the extent to which they’ll monitor his innings moving forward.

Some more health situations to monitor around the league…

Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant is currently in a walking boot due to a case of plantar fasciitis, and there’s no timetable for his return to the field, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes within a broader look at another disappointing season for the Rockies. Colorado signed Bryant to a seven-year, $182MM contract over the winter but have thus far received just 42 games and 181 plate appearances from the former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP. Bryant’s power was MIA early in the year while playing through a back injury that required two IL stints, but he did bat .330/.398/.567 with 13 extra-base hits (five homers, eight doubles) in 108 plate appearances between his most recent trips to the injured list.
Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty believes issues with his mechanics led to his latest trip to the injured list, per MLB.com. The starter spent most of the season on the injured list due shoulder problems, returning to make three starts in June before returning to the 60-day IL. That means he’s ineligible to return until late August, though he has started throwing this week, trying to iron out those mechanical issues and potentially starting a rehab assignment soon. “You start doing things incorrectly for a while and then you repeat it over and over again — eventually something is going to flare up,” Flaherty says. “The goal was to clean things up and sharpen things up so that that doesn’t happen. That’s what we’ve been working on, so hopefully things stay that way.” If he can return before the season is out, he could provide a boost to the rotation down the stretch, though the Cards added Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline to proactively address the situation.
The Twins expect righties Josh Winder and Bailey Ober to begin throwing bullpen sessions Tuesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Winder has been widely regarded as a top-100 prospect this year and has given Minnesota 45 1/3 frames of 3.77 ERA ball in his big league debut, but shoulder troubles have slowed him of late (as has been the case in past seasons as well). Ober has made 27 starts for the Twins dating back to 2021, pitching to a 4.14 ERA along the way and serving as a generally solid back-of-the-rotation arm. He’s been out since June 1 due to a groin strain that proved more severe than originally believed. The Twins remain hopeful that each of Winder, Ober, outfielder Trevor Larnach and right-hander Kenta Maeda (recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery) will be able to return in September, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North tweets that right-hander Randy Dobnak will head out on a minor league rehab assignment Thursday, giving the Twins some additional depth on the horizon.

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