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Cardinals Decline Options On Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez

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The Cardinals have declined their 2022 options on infielder Matt Carpenter and right-hander Carlos Martinez, the MLBPA announced. Carpenter had an $18.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, whereas Martinez’s contract included a $17MM option with a $500K buyout. It was a foregone conclusion that the pair of options would be bought out after poor 2021 showings for both longtime Cardinals, who are now free agents for the first time in their careers.

Carpenter, 36 in three weeks, still draws plenty of walks (11.4%) and makes a lot of hard contact — but much of that hard contact is pulled on the ground into an eagerly awaiting shift. Just shy of 75% of Carpenter’s ground-balls were pulled this season, so it’s hardly a surprise that he batted .143 on ground-balls despite a leaguewide average of .236 on grounders. It’s a similar story on line-drives; Carpenter pulled exactly two-thirds of his liners this season and hit .536 — whereas the league average on line drives was a much larger .689.

Prior to his recent decline, Carpenter was a fixture in the St. Louis batting order who made a trio of All-Star teams and thrice drew MVP votes in the National League — including a fourth-place finish in 2013. Since Opening Day 2020, however, he’s managed just a .176/.313/.291 batting line with a 29.9% strikeout rate. Carpenter has made clear he wants to play in 2022, but it’ll almost certainly require him signing on with a new team, as the Cardinals’ infield is quite crowded. Even if the DH comes to the National League, Carpenter’s 2020-21 swoon probably wouldn’t make him a top consideration for the Cards.

Martinez’s decline was even swifter and was far less expected. Still just 30 years old, the righty was limited to 48 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain in 2019 but remained highly effective when he did take the mound that year. From 2015-19, he looked like a rotation building block — hence his $51MM contract extension — as he logged 747 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with a strong 23.7% strikeout rate and a 9.0% walk rate.

However, in 2020, Martinez was blown up for a 9.90 ERA in 20 innings, and after a strong run in mid-April and May this season, his season took a catastrophic nose dive. Martinez served up 10 runs against the Dodgers on June 2 and was tagged for five runs in three of his next four starts. His season ultimately ended with a 6.23 ERA through 82 1/3 innings and a torn ligament on his thumb that landed him on the 60-day IL. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Martinez owns a 6.95 ERA and a woeful 6.0 K-BB% that would’ve seemed unfathomable just a few years ago.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office Search

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NOVEMBER 1: The Red Sox are expected to grant Ferreira permission to interview with the Mets, assuming she’s interested in doing so, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (on Twitter).

OCTOBER 30, 1:23PM: Brewers VP of baseball operations Matt Kleine is another candidate the Mets have discussed, as per Martino (Twitter link).  With both Kleine and Rodriguez, however, the Mets are wary about approaching the Brewers and Rays since both teams have repeatedly denied New York’s requests to interview other front office personnel in the past.  Kleine is believed to be interested, and his hiring could help set the stage for the Mets to land Stearns as a free agent a year from now (or after the 2023 season, depending on the reported vesting option in Stearns’ deal with Milwaukee).

OCTOBER 30, 8:05AM: The Mets’ attempts to hire a new president of baseball operations or general manager has hit its share of roadblocks, and Dodgers assistant GM Jeff Kingston is the latest executive to decline an interview with the team, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma.  However, several other prospective candidates remain, as it seems as though the Mets now could be specifically looking for a general manager, rather than someone to fully take the entire reigns of the baseball ops department.

To this end, Puma writes Rays VP of player development Carlos Rodriguez, and assistant GMs Daniel Adler (Twins), Randy Flores (Cardinals), and Ben Sestanovich (Braves) are all “on the Mets’ radar” as possible candidates.  The Mets have also asked the Red Sox for permission to speak with assistant GM Raquel Ferreira, SNY’s Andy Martino reports.

Any of these five executives would be a first-time GM, and ostensibly in charge of the baseball operations department even without the official “president” label.  The unusual nature of the Mets’ front office dynamic has led to some questions about how much authority a new GM would have, as team president Sandy Alderson is remaining with the club and has said he’ll be shifting over to focusing on the team’s business matters once a new baseball ops head is in place.

Had Mets owner Steve Cohen been successful in luring one of his big-ticket initial targets (i.e. Billy Beane, Theo Epstein, David Stearns) to New York, it would’ve made for a smoother transition, as any of those execs would’ve been the PBO and had the sway to make their own choice for a general manager to act as their chief lieutenant.  However, it is perhaps understandable why Kingston and others have opted out of what could be considered as something of a glorified one-year trial period.  If the Mets play well in 2022, a newly-hired GM could be entrusted to become the president of baseball operations; if the Mets struggle, Cohen could resume his search for a major name as PBO, leaving the general manager as perhaps something of a lame duck.

Cardinals GM Michael Girsch, Giants GM Scott Harris, newly-promoted Brewers GM Matt Arnold, and another Dodgers assistant in Brandon Gomes have all declined to be considered for the Mets’ job.  For the five names mentioned by Puma and Martino, it is possible any of the Rays, Twins, Cardinals, Braves, or Red Sox could deny New York permission to interview their personnel, though teams usually don’t stand in the way of their executives being offered a promotion.

Kingston technically has experience as a general manager, as he served as the Mariners’ interim GM for the last month-plus of the 2015 season after Jack Zduriencik was fired.  Kingston has worked as an assistant GM for the last six seasons (three with the Mariners, three with the Dodgers) and he has been considered for other front office openings in recent years.  The Phillies and Angels each had interest in Kingston for their most recent GM vacancies, and Kingston was a finalist for the Angels’ position before the team hired Perry Minasian.

Cardinals Assistant Hitting Coach Jobel Jimenez Won’t Return In 2022

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Cardinals assistant hitting coach Jobel Jimenez won’t return to the club in 2022, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter links). Jimenez was offered a position as a roving instructor on the minor league side of the organization but turned down the reassignment.

The departure of Jimenez is the first notable change to newly tabbed manager Oliver Marmol’s 2022 staff. The Cardinals stunned onlookers by abruptly parting ways with former skipper Mike Shildt and quickly elevated Marmol to the manager’s chair just over a week after firing Shildt.

Jimenez, like Shildt is a longtime Cardinals fixture who first joined the organization back in 2007 (as profiled in this 2019 piece by Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Initially hired as the hitting instructor of the Cardinals’ affiliate in the Venezuelan Summer League, he steadily rose through the Cardinals’ system and served as a hitting coach at various minor league stops before being added to the big league staff, under Shildt, in 2019. Rogers notes that Jimenez has previously worked as a scout and and instructor in the Mariners and Dodgers organizations as well.

After being bounced by the Dodgers in the National League Wild Card game, the Cardinals were reportedly mulling an extension for Shildt and leaning toward retaining the entire coaching staff. Shildt’s firing and the attempted reassignment of Jimenez represent a rapid about-face from that direction. It’s not clear whether additional changes to the staff can be anticipated, though they’ll obviously need to hire a new bench coach now that Marmol has been elevated from that position to manager. The Cards have yet to formally announce Marmol’s coaching group for the upcoming season.

Justin Miller Elects Free Agency

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Oct. 31: Miller has elected free agency, per the MLB.com transactions log. That was a foregone conclusion once he cleared waivers, as players with three-plus years of MLB service who are outrighted off the 40-man roster can become free agents at season’s end.

Oct. 28: The Cardinals have assigned Miller outright to Triple-A Memphis after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Oct. 25: The Cardinals are designating reliever Justin Miller for assignment, relays Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The move was necessary to create space on the 40-man roster for Jordan Hicks, who is being reinstated from the 60-day injured list in a procedural move. Players must be activated off the 60-day IL before the start of the offseason.

St. Louis added Miller off waivers from the Nationals in early July. The 34-year-old tossed 16 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with the Cards down the stretch. Miller threw strikes at a solid rate but only struck out 13.2% of opposing hitters with a meager 9.3% swinging strike rate. A fly-ball pitcher, Miller allowed five homers in 19 innings split between Washington and St. Louis, although only two of those came in a Cardinal uniform.

Miller didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2020, but he appeared at the highest level in five of the six seasons from 2014-19. The right-hander posted big strikeout numbers with the 2015 Rockies and 2018 Nats, but he hasn’t been able to lock down a long-term bullpen role over the past few seasons due to inconsistent performance and injuries.

The Cardinals will place Miller on outright or release waivers in the coming days. Should he pass through unclaimed, he’d have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career.

Cardinals’ GM Michael Girsch Declines To Pursue Opportunity With Mets

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The Mets have already been turned down by a handful of targets in their search for a new baseball operations head. Each of Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, David Stearns, Matt Arnold, Scott Harris and Brandon Gomes had been raised as potential candidates only to later be ruled out of consideration.

Cardinals general manager Michael Girsch can be added to that list, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (Twitter link) that New York reached out to the Cards for permission to speak with him last week. Girsch, however, declined to pursue the opportunity, electing to remain in St. Louis instead.

It’s not especially surprising Girsch would choose to stay with the Cards, where he’s worked since 2006. He broke in as the club’s coordinator of amateur scouting and earned himself a larger responsibility within the front office over the course of his tenure. Girsch was named an assistant GM by 2011 and bumped up to general manager in June 2017. For the past four-plus seasons, he’s served as the top lieutenant for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. Girsch signed a contract extension in November 2019 that takes him through the end of next season.

The Mets will continue their search for a baseball ops leader over the coming days and weeks. New York set their initial sights on the high-profile trio of Epstein, Beane and Stearns, but they’ve been primarily tied to other teams’ second-in-command types after missing out on their early targets. Dodgers senior vice president Josh Byrnes — a former GM with the Diamondbacks and Padres — has previously been mentioned as one candidate the Mets were discussing internally.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals have already gotten a jump on their offseason business, and with some money likely available to be spent, some major upgrades could be made to the 2022 roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $164MM through 2027 (Arenado has declined to use his opt-out clause following the season; he can opt out of contract following 2022 season)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $77MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $33.5MM through 2023
  • Adam Wainwright, SP: $17.5MM through 2022
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $17MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024)(Cardinals also have $15MM club option for 2025 season, with a $1MM buyout)
  • Yadier Molina, C: $10MM through 2022

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2022 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $18.5MM club option for 2022 ($2MM buyout)
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $17MM club option for 2022 ($500K buyout)(Cardinals also have $18M club option for 2023 season, with a $500K buyout)

Free Agents

While the Cardinals’ club-record 17-game winning streak was a nice twist for this year’s squad, the late-season surge has almost become routine in St. Louis.  Over the last six years, the Cards are 239-238 in the first halves of seasons, and then a whopping 229-162 in the second half.

As fun as these late charges are, St. Louis fans probably wouldn’t mind a team that can actually bank a few more wins earlier in the year, since the Cardinals have only one division title in those six seasons.  A few more wins in October also wouldn’t hurt; the Cards fell short in the playoffs for the third straight year, losing to the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card game.

Despite another early postseason exit, it was assumed that manager Mike Shildt’s job was perfectly safe, which is why his firing on Oct. 14 caught many in baseball by surprise.  In the phrasing of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, there were simply too many “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office for the relationship to continue, and thus bench coach Oliver Marmol was promoted to the top job in the dugout after the team held a relatively brief managerial search.

The 35-year-old Marmol is baseball’s youngest manager, though he has long been considered a future managerial candidate and (with his entire 15-year professional spent in the St. Louis organization) is no stranger to “The Cardinal Way.”  He won’t have the benefit of a learning curve, however, as Cards fans are getting impatient after eight seasons without a World Series appearance.

Despite the deflating ending, there are plenty of positives to be found from the Cards’ season.  Nolan Arenado came as advertised, Edmundo Sosa emerged as a nice surprise in the middle infield, and the Cardinals’ outfield went from a question mark to a major strength.  Tyler O’Neill had a breakout year, Dylan Carlson had a strong showing in his first full MLB season, and Harrison Bader made a case for himself as a regular by hitting well against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  Considering that all three also displayed standout defense in addition to their strong hitting, the Cards suddenly had one of baseball’s top all-around outfield trios.

With the three outfielders all blossoming at once, 2021 had some vague feeling of a changing of the guard in St. Louis, and yet how different could things really be with Adam Wainwright still throwing to Yadier Molina?  After the two franchise icons were re-signed relatively late last offseason, the Cardinals wasted no time in arranging reunions for 2022, signing Molina to a one-year extension in August and then inking Wainwright to another one-year pact in September.

Molina has announced that 2022 will be his final season, so the catcher will finally be hanging up the cleats after 19 years in the majors.  Even in his age-38 season, Molina was still delivering quality defense and roughly average offensive production for a catcher, and his game-calling skills and clubhouse leadership are valued almost beyond measure in St. Louis.

Wainwright will return with a hefty raise, going from $8MM in 2021 to $17.5MM next season thanks to an outstanding year that could net him some down-ballot Cy Young Award votes.  Though it seemed Wainwright’s career was winding down after a pair of injury-plagued and generally lackluster seasons in 2017-18, the veteran right-hander has found a second wind, and he has quietly been one of baseball’s better starters over the last two years.

Re-signing Molina and Wainwright for a collective $10.5MM increase on their 2021 salaries might have been a little unexpected for the St. Louis front office, yet it is certainly a price the team is comfortable paying, particularly since a lot of other money is coming off the books.  Longtime Cardinals Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martinez have multiple seasons of struggles now under their belts, and the Cards are sure to decline expensive club options on both players.

Andrew Miller’s free agency opens up another $12MM in salary, and the Cardinals will also be entirely free of Dexter Fowler’s contract.  That puts the payroll for 2022 at roughly $137.22MM, per Roster Resource.  Since the Cardinals’ payroll approached $174MM at the end of the 2019 season, there would seem to be room for Mozeliak to add at least one more big contract.

Between Arenado, Molina, O’Neill, Carlson, Bader, and the ever-dangerous Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals already have a lot of their position player mix settled.  There is much to be decided with the middle infield, however, and the possibility of the DH coming to the National League in the next collective bargaining agreement means that more offense could be required.  Ideally, that offense would come from a left-handed bat or two, in order to balance out a largely right-handed Cardinals lineup.  Adding some left-handed thump would give the Cards some flexibility to sign another right-handed bench bat…like, for instance, Albert Pujols in what might be the St. Louis legend’s final Major League season.

Turning back to the middle infield, Sosa, Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman are all fantastic defenders, so they all bring something to the table even if they’re not hitting.  That said, DeJong and Edman have both been below-average hitters for each of the last two seasons.  And, as fun as Sosa’s 2021 was, there isn’t much in his minor league resume or in his brief MLB career to suggest that he can now be counted on as a reliable bat.

DeJong is by far the most expensive of the trio, so he’d be the most difficult to move if the Cardinals did decide to make a middle infield change.  However, the $17MM remaining on DeJong’s contract isn’t an onerous sum, especially since he at least offers elite defense and some decent home run pop.  As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently illustrated, a team that isn’t willing or able to spend at the top of this year’s free agent shortstop market could turn to a DeJong trade as a backup plan, or perhaps a team that loses its star shortstop (e.g. the Rockies or Astros) could see DeJong as a something of a short-term replacement.

Could the Cardinals themselves land one of the names from that star-studded shortstop class?  The rumors of Trevor Story eventually joining his friend Arenado in St. Louis have percolated practically since Arenado was acquired.  A big left-handed bat like Corey Seager would be a perfect fit for the Cards’ needs.  Or, maybe the Cardinals’ play would be to keep DeJong and Sosa at shortstop, move Edman around the diamond as a utilityman, and acquire a new everyday second baseman.  Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, or Eduardo Escobar are all options on this front depending on how much of a financial splash St. Louis is willing to make.  That trio can all play multiple positions, and Taylor could also figure into the outfield mix, just to guard against any regression from the starting trio.

It is also possible the Cardinals have a left-handed hitting middle infield solution already on deck.  Top prospect Nolan Gorman has been showing some promise as a second baseman, and his power bat looks ready enough for an MLB debut in 2022.  The Cardinals could give Gorman a look at the keystone and instead save their money for a big addition to the rotation.

As tremendous as Wainwright has been, going into a season counting on a 40-year-old to be the ace of a staff is an obvious risk.  The next three pitchers penciled into next year’s rotation (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson) combined for 131 2/3 innings in 2021 due to injuries and, in the case of Hudson’s Tommy John rehab, recovery from past injuries.  If Wainwright keeps fighting off Father Time and any or all of Flaherty, Mikolas, and Hudson return to their 2019 form, the front of the Cardinals’ rotation looks quite strong.

If not, the Cards run the risk of repeating this past summer, when injuries so badly frayed the team’s depth.  Shopping at the top of the market for a frontline ace immediately removes some of the questions from the pitching mix, as the Cardinals could then be more confident that they have enough arms to not only withstand injury, but perhaps to help bolster the bullpen, or even to dangle as trade chips at the deadline.

St. Louis native Max Scherzer has long been coveted by Cardinals fans, and perhaps the veteran would like to cap off his outstanding career by trying to bring another title back to The Gateway City.  Or, Marcus Stroman’s grounder-heavy approach could be even more effective if he was pitching in front of the Cards’ terrific defense.  Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray also stand out on the free agent market, or if Mozeliak prefers to swing another trade, he could check in with a team like the Athletics, as Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt are two members of Oakland’s large and increasingly pricey arbitration class.

Trade deadline additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ bailed the Cards out by tossing some quality innings, and a reunion with either free agent isn’t out of the question.  The same goes for Kwang Hyun Kim.  While Kim has also had his share of injury concerns and his peripheral numbers aren’t anything special, the southpaw has posted a 2.97 ERA over his 145 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball.

Turning to the in-house names, Jake Woodford is available to start or perhaps work as a swingman, Johan Oviedo gained more experience in 2021, top prospect Matthew Liberatore is knocking on the door, and the Cardinals are hopeful that at least one of Jordan Hicks or Alex Reyes can be healthy enough to be stretched out as starters.  Hicks made a pair of Arizona Fall League starts, and the Cards will at least take a look at him in a starting role next spring (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Katie Woo).

Any of these pitchers could also be used in the bullpen, and the relief corps (like basically every other aspect of the team) rounded itself into a strength for the late-season surge.  Giovanny Gallegos pitched well all season and stepped up as the first-choice closer down the stretch.  St. Louis will probably add an external veteran or two to the pen, so the team could get someone with some closing experience to act as a safety net.  Hicks or Reyes could also again factor into save situations, depending on what ends up happening with their rotation chances.

The Cardinals’ penchant for late comebacks has tended to alleviate some of the pressure on Mozeliak, but the Shildt firing might have removed whatever slack the fanbase has been willing to grant.  Marmol is now the third manager hired by Mozeliak, so the pressure will only increase on the longtime executive to get the Cards back over the playoff hump.  Could another big swing be in the works?  Time will tell, but the Cardinals have the payroll space and perhaps some increased urgency to make a splash.

Cardinals Have Spoken With Skip Schumaker About Potential Coaching Position

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  • The Cardinals have been in contact with Padres associate manager Skip Schumaker about potentially joining the  organization in some capacity, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Almost immediately after the Cards dismissed Mike Shildt as manager, speculation arose about Schumaker — a former Cardinals utilityman — as a potential successor. St. Louis opted to promote bench coach Oliver Marmol instead, although it’s still possible Schumaker could assume some other position on the Cardinals staff. The 41-year-old remains employed by San Diego, but Padres’ coaches were given permission to explore opportunities elsewhere after the Friars dismissed manager Jayce Tingler.

Cardinals Name Oliver Marmol Manager

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Oct. 25: The Cardinals have formally introduced Marmol as the 51st manager in franchise history. He signed a three-year contract that’ll run through the 2024 season, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Oct. 24: The Cardinals are set to announce bench coach Oliver Marmol as the team’s next manager, according to Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  The Cards have called a press conference for Monday morning to officially introduce Marmol.

The hiring concludes an unusual start to the St. Louis offseason, as there wasn’t any indication that previous manager Mike Shildt’s job was in danger before the Cardinals surprisingly fired Shildt 10 days ago.  As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters, “philosophical differences” emerged with Shildt, and while some reports have surfaced about what some of those differences may have been, it appears the issue was indeed with Shildt alone.  It seems as though the Cards will be bringing back most of their coaching staff for 2022, though a new bench coach will now be needed with Marmol being elevated to the top job.

Oliver Marmol

Marmol was seen as a candidate essentially from the moment the news broke of Shildt’s firing, and at age 35, Marmol is now the youngest current manager in the big leagues.  He is also the first person of color to work as the Cardinals manager in over 80 years, since Mike Gonzalez briefly managed the team on an interim basis in both 1938 and 1940 (a total of 23 games).

Despite his young age, Marmol already has plenty of experience on the bench.  Originally a sixth-round pick for the Cards in the 2007 draft, Marmol played four seasons in the minors before transitioning to coaching and managing in the St. Louis farm system.  He has spent the last five seasons on the Cardinals’ MLB coaching staff, working two years as first base coach before working as Shildt’s bench coach for the last three seasons.

Marmol is now the third manager Mozeliak has hired during his tenure as the team’s GM and president of baseball operations, and like predecessors Shildt and Mike Matheny, Marmol also has longstanding ties to the St. Louis organization.  In a sense, Marmol is something of a blend of the two previous skippers — he has Matheny’s relative youth and more recent playing experience, but also a resume of managerial experience in the minors and coaching experience in the majors, a la Shildt.  Marmol has been mentioned as a potential manager of the future for the Cardinals and other teams, so the Cards’ hiring decision may have been partially inspired by a desire to keep Marmol in the fold.

The newly-minted skipper will face plenty of expectations in the top job, as the Cardinals have reached the postseason in three straight seasons but suffered two early exits (losing to the Dodgers in this year’s wild card game and to the Padres in the 2020 wild card series) and a four-game sweep to the Nationals in the 2019 NLCS.  St. Louis fans are always expecting to win, and since 2022 will be Yadier Molina’s farewell season, there is perhaps even extra pressure for extended playoff success next year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Cardinals’ Managerial Position

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The Cardinals recently shocked the baseball world by firing manager Mike Shildt, shortly after an incredible season in which a 17-game winning streak catapulted them into the postseason for a third consecutive year. Just a few days prior to that, it seemed like the club would take the opposite path and extend him beyond 2022, the last year of his contract. Instead, with the offseason now just about a week away, their plans for a Shildt-less future are not publicly known.

Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch took a look at the situation, reporting that Cardinals’ president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has internal candidates like Oliver Marmol and Stubby Clapp at the top of the list. Marmol has been with the organization as a coach for a decade now, as he became the hitting coach for the Gulf Coast League Cardinals in 2011. He then went on to manage the rookie-ball Johnson City Cardinals and the Class A-Advanced Palm Beach Cardinals. He’s been with the big league club since the 2017 season, serving as first base coach and then bench coach. Clapp spent some time coaching in the Astros’ and Blue Jays’ organizations, before joining the Cardinals as the manager for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds for the 2017 season. He came up to the major league team as first base coach for the 2019 season. The fact that they are already in the Cardinals organization would mean Mozeliak is already familiar with their abilities, making them known quantities. However, the same was true of Shildt, who had been with the Cardinals in various capacities for over a decade before becoming manager after the firing of Mike Matheny in 2018. It’s unclear if Mozeliak wants to take that same path this time around.

Frederickson also throws out a couple of wildcards, reporting that Rick Renteria and Matt Holliday have make it known they are interested in the position. Renteria would bring some managerial experience, having been the bench boss for the 2014 Cubs then the White Sox from 2017 to 2020. Holliday, on the other hand, would bring no such experience at the big leagues, although he is currently listed as a volunteer assistant coach at Oklahoma State University, where his brother Josh is the head coach. Holliday was with the Cardinals as a player from 2009 to 2016. Hiring Holliday would come as a surprise, although it would mirror the hiring of Matheny in some ways. When Matheny was hired in 2011, he was also just a few years removed from his playing days and had no previous big league coaching experience.

Trade Candidate: Paul DeJong

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One of the biggest decisions for the Cardinals this winter is how to handle the shortstop position. That hasn’t been the case in a while. Paul DeJong had a great rookie season in 2017, and he’s been the Cards’ Opening Day shortstop for each of the four seasons since.

Going into 2022, it no longer seems to be DeJong’s job. That rookie season was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play that DeJong never seemed likely to sustain, but he was a solid hitter over the next couple years. Coupled with high-end defensive metrics, he was still a highly valuable player. DeJong’s bat has taken another step down over the last two years, though, and that seemingly puts his future with the organization in question.

Since the start of 2020, DeJong has tallied 576 plate appearances, nearly the equivalent of a typical season. He’s hit just .213/.295/.378, a mark that makes him fourteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong still brings some power upside, popping 22 home runs with a .165 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that’s right around average. He has struck out in an elevated 26.6% of his trips to the plate, though. Paired with a very low .254 BABIP, that has led DeJong to post one of the lower batting averages and on-base marks among regular players.

DeJong is still generally effective at barreling balls up, but he’s also had far too many wasted plate appearances. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, which can be a bit of a double-edged sword. Hitting the ball in the air gives a player plenty of opportunities to do damage, but weakly hit fly balls aren’t especially useful. DeJong has had his share of softly hit balls in the air, with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity on air balls that ranks in the 42nd percentile leaguewide (minimum 1000 pitches seen). That middle-of-the-road batted ball quality has come as DeJong’s contact rate has dropped a few percentage points over the past two seasons, falling from roughly league average to a bit below.

While DeJong hasn’t been an especially productive hitter in recent seasons, he hasn’t been without value. Defensive metrics have still pegged him as a solid or better defender. Over the past two seasons, DeJong has rated as six runs above average at shortstop by DRS, while Statcast has him at two plays above average. Even average play at shortstop is valuable, and DeJong’s probably at least a tick above par defensively.

Because of that defensive acumen, DeJong has been valued at around two wins above replacement since the start of 2020 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s roughly league average for the amount he has played. So even with his bat going backwards, DeJong’s still a capable player who is just two years removed from an All-Star berth. He’d be an upgrade over some teams’ current shortstop situations.

Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Angels, Rangers, A’s, Astros, Tigers and Twins are among the teams who might be in the shortstop market this winter. With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option.

In March 2018, DeJong and the Cardinals agreed on a contract extension, the guaranteed portion of which runs through 2023. He’ll make $6MM next season and $9MM the following year, and he’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $12.5MM. The contract also contains another club option covering 2025. Given DeJong’s offensive struggles the past couple seasons, that deal no longer looks like a massive bargain. But it’s certainly not an outlandish detriment to a team’s finances either, and the two options give a potential acquiring team some upside if DeJong manages to turn things around at the dish.

That all leads to an interesting offseason decision for the St. Louis front office. DeJong’s 2022 salary isn’t outlandish, but they might want to look into the top shortstops available themselves. Alternatively, they could trade DeJong and rely on the player who became the de facto shortstop down the stretch this past season: Edmundo Sosa.

Sosa has long been viewed by public prospect evaluators as a future glove-first utilityman. He outperformed those expectations as a rookie, though, hitting .271/.346/.389 with six homers in 326 plate appearances. Sosa didn’t walk or hit for much power, but his aggressive approach helped keep his strikeouts low as well.

Turning shortstop over to Sosa based on half a season’s worth of work would be a risk, but he did enough down the stretch to seemingly surpass DeJong on the organizational depth chart. It’d be defensible to give Sosa a chance to seize the job, particularly given this regime’s solid track record in developing position players who overperform their general prospect expectations.

How to handle the shortstop position going into 2022 is a key question for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office. That’s unfamiliar territory in St. Louis, but DeJong’s recent drop-off at the dish makes it possible he could wind up on the move in the coming months.

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