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Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

NL Notes: Gilbreath, Eflin, Greene, Flaherty, Miley

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The Rockies announced that left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left elbow flexor strain. In a corresponding move, right-hander Alex Colome went the other direction, getting reinstated from the IL. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that Gilbreath will undergo an MRI.

While the severity of the issue still isn’t known, it’s at least enough for Gilbreath to miss the next couple of weeks. An issue to a pitcher’s throwing elbow is always somewhat worrisome, though the club will surely get more information before deciding how to proceed. The Rox are in the basement of the National League West and won’t be in contention down the stretch, meaning there will be little incentive to rush him back to the mound.

Gilbreath has been an effective southpaw for Colorado over the past couple of seasons, registering a 3.78 ERA, not too shabby for someone who plays their home games at Coors Field. In 85 2/3 career innings, he has a 25% strikeout rate and 45.7% groundball rate, though an elevated 13.2% walk rate.

Some other injury notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is still trying to get back on the mound this season, having been on the injured list since late June due to a right knee bruise. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that Eflin might be able to throw a bullpen this week, with the aim of eventually returning as a reliever. Given that there’s just over a month remaining in the regular season, it would be difficult for him to build back up to a starter’s workload in time to make a significant contribution. The righty has quietly been an effective member of the rotation, having registered a 4.21 ERA over 98 games, 93 of them starts, going back to the beginning of the 2018 season. He is highly likely to reach free agency this year, as he and the Phils have a mutual option for 2023, with those provisions almost never being triggered by both parties. The club currently holds the second of three Wild Card spots in the National League and a postseason run could give Eflin more time to showcase his health before reaching the open market.
  • Reds righty Hunter Greene is set to head out on a rehab assignment, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s been out of action for over three weeks now due to a strain in his throwing shoulder, though appears to be slated to return after a couple of rehab outings. The highly-touted rookie is known for his tremendous velocity, though he’s yet to put it to great use at the big league level. He currently owns a 5.26 ERA after 102 2/3 innings in the majors, despite a strong 28.8% strikeout rate. When batters don’t strike out, they appear to be making good contact, as Greene’s barrel percentage is only in the league’s 10th percentile while his hard hit rate is in the 30th percentile. He’ll look to finish the season on a positive note before the winter begins. Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft are all under 25 years old and showed intriguing skills in their debuts this year. The Reds will surely be hoping to maximize the talents of that trio in order to have a strong foundation of starting pitching to build around in the future.
  • Righty Jack Flaherty is going to throw another rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the Cardinals on Labor Day, tweets Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. After an elite season in 2019 wherein he threw 196 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, Flaherty is now in his third straight injury-limited campaign. He’s made just three starts this year in between IL stints due to shoulder injuries. If he’s able to return and flash his 2019 form, he’d be a tremendous difference maker for the Cards down the stretch and into the postseason. The club is currently 5 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers in the race for the division crown. Flaherty hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in each of his last three rehab outings.
  • Cubs lefty Wade Miley is still looking to make his way back to a mound before the season is out, speaking to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his year. “I can’t shut it down,” Miley said. “If I want to keep playing baseball beyond this year, I have to prove to people that I’m not broke. And I don’t feel like I’m broke by any means.” After throwing 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA with the Reds last year, he was claimed on waivers by the Cubs but has been limited to just four starts and 19 innings here in 2022, due to various ailments, primarily in his throwing shoulder. He will be hoping to return to action and show some effectiveness before the end of the season, when he will become a free agent and turn 36 years old in November.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs

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The Cardinals are hopeful that Steven Matz will return from his stint on the injured list soon, but when he does, it will be as a reliever, per MLB.com’s John Denton (via Twitter). There simply isn’t time remaining in the season to build him back up as a starter. The switch is partly because of Matz, but also due to the expectation that Jack Flaherty will return to the rotation potentially next Wednesday or the following weekend, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Not to mention, deadline acquisitions Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery have excelled in the rotation since their arrival. In the bullpen, Matz can provide manager Oliver Marmol with another weapon from the left side to augment current southpaws Genesis Cabrera and JoJo Romero. Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Deadline acquisition Trevor Rosenthal left his latest appearance in Triple-A with lat soreness, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Picking up Rosenthal was certainly a bit of a lottery ticket for the Brewers, given that Rosenthal hasn’t pitched since 2020. Rosenthal had begun to show shades of his former self, posting a 1.90 ERA over 23 2/3 innings with the Royals and Padres. The hits keep coming for Rosenthal, who suffered a hamstring strain before the lat injury, which all came while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.
  • The Cubs will be looking to add power this offseason, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. That certainly tracks for a team with a middle infield consisting of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal, both of whom boast contact-first profiles at the dish. Hoerner has stepped up this season, both on the field and from a leadership perspective, making himself a key part of the Cubs’ future. Madrigal has had a less memorable campaign, but he may yet establish himself as the second baseman of the future. The power will have to come from somewhere, however, especially with Willson Contreras slated for free agency. Contreras’ 20 home runs rank second on the team behind Patrick Wisdom’s 22, and the long-time catcher is the team leader in isolated power with a .222 ISO.

Latest On Steven Matz

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Matz has pitched just once since May 22, as a shoulder impingement kept him on the injured list for almost two months, and he then suffered his MCL injury in his first start back off the IL.  St. Louis has Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and trade deadline acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana all thriving in the rotation, so if Matz is able to return, he could be used in a bullpen role or competing with Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, or another rehabbing starter in Jack Flaherty for that final spot in the rotation.  The Cardinals could potentially also explore using a six-man rotation down the stretch, or perhaps just give some of their regulars some rest if the Cards can clinch the NL Central title relatively early.  With a 17-5 record thus far in August, the Cards have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the struggling Brewers in the division race.

Steven Matz suffered a torn left MCL in late July, leading to fear that the left-hander’s season would possibly be over, even if surgery wasn’t required.  However, Matz is now making increased progress towards a return, with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol telling reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Matz’s knee was pain-free while fielding some grounders on Wednesday.  Matz also threw 30 pitches off the mound during the warm-up session.  It could mean that Matz is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, though the Cardinals will continue to closely monitor his status considering his lack of workload.

Matz has pitched just once since May 22, as a shoulder impingement kept him on the injured list for almost two months, and he then suffered his MCL injury in his first start back off the IL.  St. Louis has Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and trade deadline acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana all thriving in the rotation, so if Matz is able to return, he could be used in a bullpen role or competing with Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, or another rehabbing starter in Jack Flaherty for that final spot in the rotation.  The Cardinals could potentially also explore using a six-man rotation down the stretch, or perhaps just give some of their regulars some rest if the Cards can clinch the NL Central title relatively early.  With a 17-5 record thus far in August, the Cards have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the struggling Brewers in the division race.

Cardinals Re-Sign T.J. McFarland

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After releasing T.J. McFarland last week, the Cardinals announced that the veteran left-hander has been re-signed to a minor league deal.  McFarland will report to the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate in Memphis.

Now in his second season with the Cards, McFarland pitched well in 2021 but has struggled to a 6.61 ERA over 32 2/3 frames this season.  Low-strikeout pitchers who heavily rely on ground balls are perhaps more prone to big swings in performance, and in McFarland’s case, an increase in hard contact, a jump in BABIP (from .261 in 2021 to .333 this year), and a decrease in grounder rate (53% this season, 63.7% in 2021) have all combined to ruin McFarland’s performance.  His strand rate is also an abnormally low 60.4%, and his walk rate is also up from last season.

McFarland’s sinker (his primary pitch) is the best illustration of how his performance has tended to vary over his 10 MLB seasons.  When the southpaw had a 2.00 ERA over 72 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2018, McFarland’s sinker was one of the most effective pitches in all of baseball, and he also had great success with the pitch in 2021.  When the sinker isn’t only an average or below-average pitch, however, batters have feasted.

Retaining McFarland on a minors contract is a low-risk move for the Cardinals, as some time in Triple-A could help the 33-year-old get back on track.  St. Louis has plenty of other left-handed options in their bullpen for the stretch run and potentially into the playoffs, but a McFarland who can rediscover his 2021 form would give the Cardinals another nice depth option.

Albert Pujols Still Planning To Retire After 2022 Season

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Pujols now has 692 career homers, making it a realistic possibility that he can pass Alex Rodriguez (696 homers) on the all-time list and perhaps even become the fourth player in history to reach the 700-homer threshold.  After last night’s four-hit performance against the Diamondbacks, Pujols is also now second on the all-time total bases list, passing another Cardinals legend in Stan Musial.  Interestingly, Nightengale also notes that Pujols’ desire to return to St. Louis led him to pass up on offers from three other teams this winter, even though those other clubs were offering either more playing time or more money than Pujols’ $2.5MM salary for 2022.

Cardinals Place Yadier Molina On Restricted List For Two Games

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  • The Cardinals placed Yadier Molina on the restricted list today, and called up catcher Ivan Herrera from Triple-A to take Molina’s place on the active roster.  Molina is away for “business reasons” in Puerto Rico, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, and the longtime catcher is expected to return to the Cardinals on Monday.  Goold notes that the pro basketball team Molina owns is playing in the finals of the Baloncesto Superior Nacional championship, Puerto Rico’s top league.  While seemingly an unusual reason to take time off during the season, Molina’s absence probably amounts to one game at most, as the catcher played on Friday and wouldn’t have played in both weekend games against the Diamondbacks.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Cardinals Release T.J. McFarland

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The Cardinals have released left-hander T.J. McFarland following last week’s DFA, as first indicated on their transactions log at MLB.com. He’s free to sign with any of the 29 other clubs and, so long as he’s in a new organization prior to Sept. 1, could be postseason-eligible with that new team.

Of course, the veteran McFarland would need to rediscover his 2021 form before even being considered for such a role with a new team. The 33-year-old was a rock-solid member of the Cardinals’ bullpen last year, racking up groundouts in droves (63.7%) while rarely issuing free passes (6.3%) or surrendering home runs (0.70 HR/9). Despite a paltry 14.6% strikeout rate, that blend of grounders and lack of walks/dingers resulted in a 2.56 ERA through 38 2/3 frames. Fielding-independent metrics weren’t as bullish but generally pegged the southpaw as a quality bullpen option (3.78 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.85 SIERA).

McFarland faced exactly one more batter with the Cardinals in 2022 (145) than he did in 2021 (144), but his return stint in St. Louis proved nightmarish in that near-identical sample. All of his rate stats trended in the wrong direction (11% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 53% grounder rate, 1.38 HR/9) — and so, too, did his results. In 32 2/3 innings, McFarland was rocked for a 6.61 ERA. Fewer strikeouts and grounders, paired with a considerable uptick in walks, long balls and general hard contact is hardly a recipe for success for any pitcher, after all.

That said, McFarland’s 88.9 mph average sinker in 2022 was pretty closely in line with his 89.2 mph average in 2021, and even his “diminished” walk and ground-ball rates are well better than the league average. The bottom-of-the-barrel strikeout rate is an obvious concern, but McFarland has never been one to miss bats (13.8% career strikeout rate) and nonetheless still carries a 4.13 ERA in 472 1/3 Major League frames.

If a new team can help McFarland get his sinker back on track and bump that grounder rate closer to the 63% mark he carried into the season, it’s possible he could get back on track and contribute some useful innings in the season’s final few weeks. The Cardinals are paying the remainder of this year’s $2.5MM salary regardless, so a new club would only need to pay McFarland the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. At the very least, any contender looking for some lefty depth to stash in Triple-A could take a chance on stashing McFarland in the upper minors.

Cardinals Designate T.J. McFarland For Assignment

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The Cardinals announced that they have recalled right-hander Jake Woodford from Memphis, with lefty T.J. McFarland being designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

McFarland, 33, is a veteran playing in his tenth MLB season, having previously suited up for the Orioles, Diamondbacks and Athletics. Last year, he signed a minor league deal with the Nationals but was granted his release in order to pursue an opportunity with the Cardinals. That ended up working out very well for McFarland and the Cards, as he registered an ERA of 2.56 over 38 2/3 innings with the club. McFarland was always a low-strikeout, high-grounder guy, which he continued with a 14.6% strikeout rate and 63.7% ground ball rate.

It seems both sides were quite happy with the arrangement, as the Cardinals quickly re-signed McFarland on the first day of free agency last year. The southpaw is making a salary of $2.5MM this year, with $500K of incentives also in the deal. Unfortunately, things have taken a sour turn here in 2022, with McFarland currently wearing an ERA of 6.61. His ground ball rate, while still above average, has slid to 53%. His strikeout rate has slid even further below average, coming in at 11% on the season. He’s also seen his BABIP jump up to .333 after being at .261 last year and his HR/FB jump from 12% to 16.7%. Based on the poor results, the Cardinals have decided to go in a different direction.

With the trade deadline now in the rearview mirror, the Cardinals will only be able to choose between placing McFarland on outright waivers or release waivers. It’s effectively a moot point, as McFarland has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency. Though his salary isn’t exorbitant, he’s likely to go unclaimed on waivers and become a free agent again. Once that happens, he could garner interest from teams around the league, despite his down year. Left-handed relief is always in demand and many teams are lacking in that department. Both the Mariners and the Blue Jays, for instance, are currently without even a single southpaw in their respective bullpens.

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