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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals remain in a strong position despite missing the playoffs in 2016, and they’ll enter the offseason hoping to add an outfielder and to sort through their starting pitching depth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Club Options

  • Matt Holliday, OF: $17MM or a $1M buyout (the Cardinals are expected to decline the option)
  • Jaime Garcia, SP: $12MM or a $500K buyout (the Cardinals have exercised the option)
  • Jordan Walden, RP: $5.25MM or $250K buyout (the Cardinals have declined the option)
  • Seung-hwan Oh, RP: $2.75MM (option already vested because Oh finished more than 30 games in 2016)

Free Agents

Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information

In 2016, the Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, winning only (or “only”) 86 games. The team said goodbye to Matt Holliday after the season, beginning what’s likely to be an organizational transition from a core of Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter to one that’s much younger.

Of course, this seems to be a common refrain for the Cardinals, who have had winning seasons in 16 of the last 17 years, transitioning from their previous core of Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen without a hitch. Among the Cardinals’ younger players, there were positive signs in 2016, as Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes and Randal Grichuk all contributed solid value. The Cardinals will therefore keep trying to do what they always do, replacing good players with more good ones while making perhaps one big acquisition each winter. They’ll face an uphill battle as the divisional rival of a brilliant Cubs team, but they have way too much talent not to strive for the postseason.

With Molina and Brayan Pena (who returned from the DL in September after missing much of the season to knee issues) under contract for next season, the catcher position is mostly set. It wouldn’t hurt the Cardinals to find a solid third backstop in case of another DL stint for Molina or Pena, however, since both have significant injury histories and aren’t getting any younger. (22-year-old Carson Kelly is currently the Cardinals’ next man up, and he could benefit from a bit more seasoning at Triple-A.) A lucrative minor league deal (along the lines of the one the Red Sox gave Sandy Leon last offseason) to lure a solid third option might be a good move.

Likewise, the Cardinals won’t need much infield help. Jedd Gyorko — who swatted 30 home runs after being acquired in what amounted to a salary dump by the Padres — was a revelation for the Cards last season, and with Carpenter, Diaz and Peralta flanking him and other capable situational options at various positions (including Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia), the Cards have significant depth.

If the Cardinals are going to make a big move to add offense, they’ll probably grab an outfielder. The loss of former top prospect Oscar Taveras in a tragic offseason accident two years back still looms large for the franchise. Piscotty can be counted on for everyday at-bats, and Grichuk has probably shown enough to warrant everyday play as well, even though his on-base percentages will likely continue to underwhelm. Tommy Pham has proven as least modestly useful as well. With both Holliday and Brandon Moss coming off the payroll, though, the Cardinals are probably short a big bat, and the outfield is the only obvious place to put one.

The Cardinals are reportedly most interested in acquiring a center fielder, and might prefer to do so on the trade market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch identifies Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton as possibilities (although, as our own Steve Adams notes, the White Sox probably won’t be inclined to trade Eaton). Of the other two, Pollock is the only righty, and from my perspective, a right-handed hitter might be a slightly better fit. The Cards’ lineup is fairly balanced, but they already have plenty of left-handed hitting in Carpenter, Adams, Wong and Garcia, and their team OPS was 35 points better against righties than lefties last season. Pollock is the better fit from a fielding perspective, too — advanced statistics suggest Grichuk is a better defensive center fielder than Blackmon, and it’s unclear whether the alignment of Blackmon in center and Grichuk in a corner would provide enough of a defensive upgrade to justify the Cardinals’ reported focus on center fielders rather than corner outfielders.

Of course, there have yet been no meaningful indications that the Diamondbacks are interested in trading Pollock, and they might prefer to wait to deal him until he recovers value after an injury-marred 2016 campaign. Other names could come into play as well, and perhaps the Cardinals could also turn to a relatively robust outfield free agent market, which features the likes of Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez, both of whom are relatively young and play quality center field defense. 30-year-old Dexter Fowler, too, will be available as an even higher-value target.

The Cardinals could also circle back and re-sign Moss, although Goold notes that Moss seems to be down their list of priorities right now. They didn’t extend him a qualifying offer, which makes sense — he hit 28 home runs last season, but with a low batting average (.225) and on-base percentage (.300). Re-signing Moss would certainly not be the worst idea, although it’s easy to understand the organization’s reasons for wanting to look elsewhere first, given the variety of potential alternatives.

The Cardinals appear set to welcome Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Mike Leake and perhaps Michael Wacha (who the Cards say they still view as a starter despite a 2016 season marred by health concerns) back to their rotation next year, with talented newcomer Alex Reyes also likely set to receive significant playing time. They can also probably count on getting something from Lance Lynn, who missed the entire 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery but was pitching in Triple-A by the end of the year. There are other options as well, like Luke Weaver, Mike Mayers, Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. (The last three of those pitchers are returning from injury, and Gonzales and probably Cooney are better bets to contribute later in the season rather than earlier.)

Jaime GarciaThat depth left the Cardinals with a decision regarding 30-year-old Jaime Garcia, whose $12MM option they recently exercised. Given Garcia’s relative youth, his experience as a starter, and his outstanding ground-ball rate (56.5% for his career), he’s worth that kind of scratch, so the Cards’ call wasn’t a surprise. They could still try to deal him, though, and given the weak free agent market for starting pitching, Garcia would probably command at least a decent return.

Garcia alone wouldn’t be enough to acquire the sort of outfield talent the Cardinals are likely to seek, however. Perhaps an alternate route would be for the Cardinals to keep Garcia and trade another starting pitcher for a good outfielder. There is no indication the Cards are considering such a possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind, since keeping a competent starter in Garcia and dangling a young, controllable arm like Wacha could be a way to get trade talks going. There’s precedent for such a trade, too, in the form of the November 2014 deal that sent Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. Dealing Peralta could be another option, since the Cardinals have infield depth and Peralta only has one year left on his contract.

In the bullpen, Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh will be back after a brilliant first season in the US, and Kevin Siegrist, 2015 Rule 5 pick Matthew Bowman and ground-ball specialist Seth Maness (who had UCL surgery in August but could be ready in time for Spring Training if all goes well) are all likely to return after 2016 seasons that were generally effective. Jonathan Broxton, too, had a passable first season in St. Louis and should be back in 2017.

Trevor Rosenthal, though, walked a way-too-high 6.5 batters per nine, suffering through a shoulder injury and ultimately losing his closer job to Oh. Rosenthal is set to be paid a hefty $6.3MM this season, but the Cardinals would seem to have no choice but to tender him, since he’s only 26, throws in the high 90s and still struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings even in what was otherwise a terrible season. Zach Duke, meanwhile, had Tommy John surgery in mid-October, and the Cardinals declined Walden’s option after two injury-riddled years. It’s likely the Cardinals can get some relief mileage out of some of their less established arms (including Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich) and starting depth. Someone like Lyons or Gonzales could ultimately replace the left-handed Duke. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, if the Cardinals sought out a veteran bullpen arm (either left-handed or right-handed).

The Cardinals’ offseason, then, could follow a variety of possible paths. The organization could potentially be punished for former scouting director Chris Correa’s hacking of the Astros’ database, and it’s unclear whether that punishment could affect the team’s drafting or something else. For now, though, the Cardinals will proceed as if they’ll have no restrictions. While there’s potential for the Cards to pull off a blockbuster, given the team’s pitching depth and outfield needs, the franchise seems unlikely to veer off its current path, and they’ll enter 2017 hoping to field yet another competitive club.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks Claim Jeremy Hazelbaker

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The Diamondbacks have claimed outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker off waivers from the Cardinals, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). He represents the first player acquisition for new GM Mike Hazen.

[RELATED: Updated Diamondbacks Depth Chart]

Hazelbaker debuted last year in St. Louis at 28 years of age, breaking onto the scene with an unexpectedly hot start. He ultimately came back down to earth, though, and ended the year with a cumulative .235/.295/.480 slash and 12 home runs over 224 plate appearances. Hazelbaker’s sub-par on-base percentage and 28.6% strikeout rate raise questions about whether he can produce consistently at the big league level — particularly if he isn’t able to maintain a lofty .245 isolated power mark.

While there is cause for pessimism in a player who has never really been seen as much of a prospect and wasn’t able to crack the majors until his age-28 campaign, there are also some reasons for hope. Hazelbaker has abused Triple-A pitching since coming to St. Louis in the middle of the 2015 season, and has shown some pop at times in the past. Plus, the lefty hitter was much better against right-handed pitching, suggesting he could have some platoon function.

It’s not yet clear just what Arizona intends to do with Hazelbaker, but he could certainly share time in a corner outfield spot or play off the bench. David Peralta is the team’s only established, southpaw-swinging outfielder, though youngster Socrates Brito also saw a good bit of major league time last year and players like Zach Borenstein may be ready to challenge for an opportunity.

Mariners Claim Dean Kiekhefer

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The Mariners have announced the claim of lefty Dean Kiekhefer off waivers from the Cardinals. Seattle now has four open spots remaining on its 40-man roster.

Kiekhefer, 27, debuted last year for the Cardinals, but didn’t impress in his 22 frames. He allowed 13 earned runs with a 14:7 K/BB ratio over that span while averaging just 88 mph with his fastball. Right-handed hitters mashed against the soft-tossing southpaw, though he did limit opposing lefties to a .209/.261/.326 slash. Presumably, Seattle has thoughts of possibly using him in a LOOGY role.

Things do look a lot more promising when you glance at the minor league numbers. Kiekhefer has shown masterful command, permitting just 1.2 walks per nine to fuel a 2.38 ERA through 151 Triple-A innings, though he has never been much of a strikeout pitcher (6.5 K/9 in the highest level of the minors).

Cardinals Hire New Special Assistant, Promote Coaches From Minors

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  • It would appear the Cardinals have also created an entirely new coaching position. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that they’ve promoted Mike Shildt to the big leagues as a “quality control coach.” They’ve also promoted Oliver Marmol to be their new first base coach. Shildt has eight years of managerial experience in the Cardinals’ minor league system, spending the last two years with Triple-A Memphis. The 30-year-old Marmol spent several years in the Cards’ system as an infielder before transitioning to coaching. He managed at Class A+ Palm Beach last year.
  • The Cardinals have hired Bob Gebhard as a special assistant to GM John Mozeliak, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The 73-year-old Gebhard briefly pitched for the Twins and Expos in the early 1970s, and he was the Rockies’ first GM, serving in that capacity throughout most of the 1990s.
  • It would appear the Cardinals have also created an entirely new coaching position. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that they’ve promoted Mike Shildt to the big leagues as a “quality control coach.” They’ve also promoted Oliver Marmol to be their new first base coach. Shildt has eight years of managerial experience in the Cardinals’ minor league system, spending the last two years with Triple-A Memphis. The 30-year-old Marmol spent several years in the Cards’ system as an infielder before transitioning to coaching. He managed at Class A+ Palm Beach last year.

Cardinals To Exercise Jaime Garcia’s Option, Decline Option On Jordan Walden

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5:05pm: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that right-hander Jordan Walden will have his option declined by the Cards. That’s hardly a surprising development, as Walden pitched just 10 1/3 innings over the life of what is in hindsight an ill-fated two-year, $6.6MM deal signed prior to the 2015 campaign. St. Louis acquired Walden from the Braves alongside Jason Heyward in exchange for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins back in 2014, but injuries have prevented Walden from taking the hill much at all in the past two seasons. Walden’s option would’ve paid him $5.25MM had it been exercised, but he’ll receive a $250K buyout instead.

11:57am: The Cardinals will exercise left-hander Jaime Garcia’s club option for 2017, reports Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com (Twitter link). Garcia will make $12MM next season.

The injury-prone Garcia tossed 171 1/3 innings this season, easily his most since 2011, but run prevention was a serious problem. On the strength of a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (20.2 percent), Garcia put up the worst full-season ERA of his career (4.67). However, he did strike out just under eight batters per nine innings (7.86) while posting a respectable walk rate (2.99) and generating ground balls at a 56.7 percent clip.

Despite his history of injuries and a disappointing 2016, Garcia should draw trade interest if the Cardinals shop him. General manager John Mozeliak already did so during the summer, but Garcia ended up finishing the season in St. Louis. Garcia would certainly be among the most talented starters on the free agent market had the Cardinals bought him out, though, and a $12MM investment could be preferable to teams over signing a flawed free agent for more. The Cardinals could also retain Garcia as depth, of course, as Michael Wacha is a candidate to shift to the bullpen and Lance Lynn missed all of this season because of Tommy John surgery.

Cardinals Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Brandon Moss

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The Cardinals won’t be extending a qualifying offer to first baseman/outfielder Brandon Moss, reports ESPN’s Mark Saxon. Notably, Saxon adds that the lack of a QO “effectively [ends]” Moss’ tenure with the Cardinals, seemingly indicating that the team isn’t currently planning on making a run at re-signing him.

The 33-year-old Moss at one point looked to be a borderline candidate to receive a QO, but his production tanked in September, as he finished the year in a dreadful 10-for-106 free fall. Prior to that awful stretch, Moss was sporting a hefty .277/.344/.586 line on the year and had crushed 25 homers in just 346 trips to the plate. That tremendous show of power prompted MLBTR’s Jeff Todd to call it an “open question” as to whether Moss would receive the QO back in early September.

While it indeed seemed possible at that juncture, Moss will now enter the open market with a cumulative .225/.300/.484 slash line to show for his 2016 efforts. While that still represents a productive overall season, particularly in the power department, it does seem fair to suggest that Moss’ late cold spell has potentially cost him tens of millions of dollars. It’s not much of a silver lining, but the September swoon will at least allow Moss to enter the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation.

Moss will be one of a number of left-handed hitting first base/DH types on this year’s free-agent market, as he’ll join Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison, Mitch Moreland and Ryan Howard. However, unlike those peers, Moss is capable of playing in the corner outfield and as highly productive for much of the season before his sudden decline, probably making him the most desirable of the bunch. Even if he doesn’t sign somewhere to log everyday at-bats, he could still rotate between first base, corner outfield and DH enough to receive 400 to 500 plate appearances somewhere next season, assuming he remains healthy.

Cardinals Extend Mike Matheny Through 2020

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The Cardinals and manager Mike Matheny have agreed to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2020 season, the team announced.

Matheny was previously in danger of entering the 2017 campaign as a lame duck, though owner Bill DeWitt Jr. gave the 46-year-old a vote of confidence in late September.

“Mike’s done a really good job for us,” said DeWitt. “There’s no thought that we’re going to go in any different direction.”

In terms of wins and losses, the five-year Matheny era has been a productive one for the Cardinals, who have finished with no fewer than 86 victories in any individual season and have made the playoffs four times. Overall, the club has gone 461-349 in the regular season under Matheny, whose crowning playoff achievement is a National League pennant in 2013. St. Louis missed the postseason this year, but general manager John Mozeliak doesn’t blame Matheny for that.

“Mike takes a lot of heat, and I’ve defended him and I will continue to,” Mozeliak said late in the regular season. “I really feel like some of the things that we’re dealing with aren’t fair to put on the manager.”

While Matheny has indeed taken heat from outside the Cardinals organization, it’s clear the team’s front office values the job he has done as the manager. If Matheny sees his extension through, it’ll give him 14 combined years with the franchise as a player and manager. The longtime major league catcher was the Cardinals’ primary backstop from 2000-2004.

Manfred: No Deadline On Cardinals Investigation

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  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that commissioner Rob Manfred would not commit to any type of deadline regarding MLB’s investigation into the Cardinals’ unauthorized accessing of the Astros’ proprietary computer network, Ground Control. Manfred reiterated that the goal of the investigation is to be as thorough as possible and called the process “ongoing” but declined further comment. As Goold notes, though, the Cardinals are entering the offseason under the impression that they’ll be able to conduct business as usual. Nonetheless, it seems inevitable that the Cards will face some degree of penalization, with the loss of draft picks and/or significant international signing restrictions among the speculated means of league-imposed discipline.

Significant Rotation Upgrade Unlikely For Cardinals

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  • MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tackles a number of offseason questions in her latest Cardinals inbox piece, noting that despite a lackluster performance from the pitching staff this season, a significant addition seems unlikely. The free-agent market is, as has been well-documented, stunningly thin in terms of quality arms. And as far as the trade market is concerned, the team likely feels satisfied enough with its depth that it won’t feel compelled to meet the escalated asking prices that will perpetuate the trade market for rotation help. Langosch also looks at how the Cards stack up with the Rockies in potential trades and again emphasizes that the team is likely to focus on upgrading its up-the-middle defense this winter.

Indians Notes: Santana, Kluber, Miller, Lucroy

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The Indians are at least opening the door to the possibility of utilizing Carlos Santana in left field when the World Series moves to Wrigley Field and takes the DH off of the table, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. It doesn’t seem as if there are any clear plans to play him there — he hasn’t roamed the outfield grass since the minors — but the team is getting him some reps just in case. Even if Cleveland won’t start Santana in left just in order to get his and Mike Napoli’s bats into the same lineup, it’s not impossible to imagine a late-game substitution scenario that calls for such a bold move.

Here’s more from Cleveland with the fall classic set to get underway:

  • How exactly did World Series Game 1 starter Corey Kluber end up with the Indians? Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch compiles something of an oral history of the 2010 trade that brought the relatively unknown righty to Cleveland. With the Padres and Cardinals each looking for veteran assets, the Indians were able to facilitate their needs by taking Kluber. Then-Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti said at the time that he preferred not to be on the prospect end of such trades, though certainly that move helped set up the team’s current run — which included a deal that sent young talent out for the player who’s the subject of the next bullet.
  • We’ve increasingly heard chatter — as is typical this time of year — about how postseason teams can serve as a model for other organizations in the ensuing winter. While I’d argue that the value of premium relief arms seems worth paying attention to, it does seem curious to hear discussion of whether teams could look to emulate the specific pen usage of roving Indians out-machine Andrew Miller. That approach isn’t likely to carry over into the regular season, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus suggests (subscription required — and recommended) in a detailed and interesting analysis. Relievers are simply not as effective when they re-appear for a second inning of work, Carleton finds, and managers rightly need to be more judicious in deploying their most valuable relief-pitching-innings — those handled by their best relievers — over the course of a long season. Unless and until some team decides to really push the boundaries of how much of an innings workload a reliever can handle, he says, we’ll likely continue to see a lot of one-inning relievers in relatively well-defined roles (for the bulk of the year, at least).
  • When the Indians went and got Miller, it sent a meaningful message to the team’s players, second baseman Jason Kipnis tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). But it came at a real price that could end up hurting down the line — as is the nature of deadline deals (see Kluber, Corey). Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that Cleveland offered much more than any other team to grab Miller. But that was what it took to pry him loose, since the Yankees were under no obligation to swing a deal for a player with two more seasons of control remaining. With the Giants unwilling to move Joe Panik and the Nationals not interested in boosting their offer of young pitching talent, New York would’ve held pat had the Indians not offered up a prospect package made up of outfielder Clint Frazier, southpaw Justus Sheffield, and right-handers Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen.
  • Before getting that deal done, of course, the Indians had a pact in place for catcher Jonathan Lucroy that only fell through when he exercised his no-trade protection to nix it. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports, Lucroy doesn’t regret utilizing the clause — even with the Indians now in the World Series. The veteran receiver landed in a good spot, helping the Rangers lock up an AL West title, and he’s not interested in revisiting things now. “I’m not worried about it at all,” he said. “It’s over with and in the past.”
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