Cardinals Rumors

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By charliewilmoth | March 17, 2017 at 8:47pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Cardinals added two top free agents this offseason and said goodbye to some longtime contributors as they tinkered with the core that won them 86 games in 2016.

Major League Signings

OF Dexter Fowler: five years, $82.5MM
LHP Brett Cecil: four years, $30.5MM
Total spend: $113MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Jose Adolis Garcia, Eric Fryer

Trades And Claims

Acquired RHP Chris Ellis, RHP John Gant and 2B Luke Dykstra from Braves for LHP Jaime Garcia
Lost OF Jeremy Hazelbaker on waivers to Diamondbacks
Lost LHP Tim Cooney on waivers to Indians

Extensions

RHP Carlos Martinez: five years, $51MM (includes club options for 2022 and 2023)

Notable Losses

Brandon Moss, Matt Holliday, Garcia, Seth Maness, Brayan Pena

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals ended the 2016 season by parting ways with a longtime star, giving the aging Matt Holliday a $1M buyout rather than exercising a $17MM option. Though he hits capably, the 37-year-old Holliday no longer provided enough offense to offset his salary and health and defensive issues. He headed to the Yankees, who can use him as a DH. The Cardinals also saw the departure of another veteran slugger, Brandon Moss, who didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the club before he ultimately landed with the Royals.

The Cardinals thus set about adding another outfielder who could bump 2016 center fielder Randal Grichuk to a corner. They were linked to a number of high-profile names, including Adam Eaton, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond, before ultimately signing Dexter Fowler to a five-year, $82.5MM deal.

The Cardinals’ seemingly singular focus on finding a center fielder rather than a corner outfielder initially seemed odd, since advanced stats actually identified Grichuk as a better defensive center fielder than Fowler and several of the other rumored options. UZR pegs Grichuk as being a few runs above average in about 1,200 career innings in center field, and Defensive Runs Saved is even more bullish, rating Grichuk as 14 runs above average. Both stats rate Fowler as a hair above average last year, but below average (sometimes significantly so) in the five seasons before that. Fowler will also be 31 later this month, and though his athleticism makes him likely to age relatively gracefully, his defense seems unlikely to improve as he ages and slows. The Cards reached agreement with Fowler during the Winter Meetings — relatively early in the offseason, and significantly before most of the other outfield bats signed. They also paid almost $20MM more for him than MLBTR projected he’d receive. One wonders whether they might have gotten better value had they kept Grichuk in center and signed one of the many cheaply available sluggers to join him and Stephen Piscotty in their outfield.

There was also another cost to signing Fowler, in that the Cardinals forfeited their top 2017 draft pick, No. 19 overall, to complete the signing. That loss will hurt, particularly since the team also lost its next two picks (Nos. 56 and 75) as part of its penalty for its role in the Astros hacking scandal.

Perhaps that’s overthinking it, however. The only free agent outfielder who compared favorably to Fowler in overall value was Yoenis Cespedes, who was already off the market by the time the Cards landed their man. Unlike some of the defensively challenged sluggers who languished on the free agent market, Fowler’s well-rounded game insures him somewhat against decline. At least in the short term, he should upgrade the Cardinals’ offense with his on-base ability and their defense by virtue of being significantly better than players like Holliday or Moss. And, of course, in signing Fowler, the Cardinals lured a talented player away from the rival Cubs, who replaced him with the much less costly Jon Jay.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Cardinals also acted quickly to fill a bullpen spot that opened when lefty Zach Duke had an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery in October. Another lefty, Tyler Lyons, was set to begin 2017 on the DL after having knee surgery as well. To replace them, the Cards signed Brett Cecil to a four-year deal worth $30.5MM, making a notable commitment to a reliever who isn’t a closer and doesn’t have a track record of dominance, at least not at first glance. (They also gave Cecil a full no-trade clause.) Cecil’s modest 3.93 ERA last season, though, was propelled by a 1.47 HR/9 that’s likely to return to more normal levels in 2017, and his other underlying numbers (11.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) are more consistent with the ERAs he posted in 2014 and 2015, which were well under three.

The offseason was also kind to left-handed relievers as a group, with non-stars like Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepcyznski also faring quite well. Of course, Cecil is not a generic lefty (he allowed a .799 OPS against righties in 2016 but dominated them the two previous seasons), so there wasn’t a clear comparable for him on the market. In the end, his $30.5MM deal ranked fourth among this winter’s relief-pitcher contracts, behind only Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Cecil’s addition gives the Cardinals a second good lefty to join Kevin Siegrist. He should bolster a bullpen that, thanks in part to injuries to Duke, Lyons and the now-departed Seth Maness, suddenly looked somewhat thin. Cecil will pitch in the late innings, with the terrific Seung Hwan Oh occupying the closer’s role and Jonathan Broxton, Matthew Bowman and wild card Trevor Rosenthal filling in the gaps. (The Cardinals planned to experiment with the idea of having Rosenthal start, but those plans were likely dashed after a spring injury; he now could occupy a multiple-inning relief role.) Newcomer John Gant could be a factor as well, along with Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich.

The Cardinals also extended 25-year-old righty Carlos Martinez through 2021, with club options for 2022 and 2023. The $51MM deal buys out two of what would have been Martinez’s free agent seasons and gives the Cardinals the chance to control his rights through his age-31 campaign. Martinez would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time this past winter. It’s hard to find comparable recent extensions for starting pitchers, mostly because teams have been reluctant in recent seasons to commit to starting pitchers for five-year periods when they have the option of taking them year to year. Martinez himself has had brief bits of shoulder trouble in both the minors and the Majors, and no starting pitcher is wholly exempt from injury concerns — as fellow Cardinal Lance Lynn, who received a three-year deal a season before missing the 2016 campaign to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, can probably attest. That written, Martinez seems worth the risk. He possesses elite velocity and ground-ball ability, and he ramped up to a career-high 195 1/3 frames in 2016. Acquiring the right to control his age-28 through age-31 seasons offers the Cardinals enormous upside.

Questions Remaining

The Cardinals possess what would appear to be good, consistent players throughout their roster, but their collection of aging veterans and young players looks to be a bit short on star talent. Yadier Molina is now 34, and the days of his five-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 appear to be behind him. Matt Carpenter is coming off an outstanding 2016 season, but the relative impact of his bat should be limited somewhat by the Cardinals’ decision to play him at first base, a move the team made in November to improve the team’s infield defense and clear the way for players at other infield positions. Fowler is fresh off a career-best season and could regress. Jhonny Peralta will be 35 in May and didn’t perform after returning from a wrist injury in 2016. Younger players like Piscotty and Grichuk profile more as very good players than stars. The offense’s best shot at a star-caliber performance might belong to shortstop Aledmys Diaz, and despite his outstanding 2016 rookie season, that seems like an iffy proposition given the (understandable) uncertainties in the Cuban defector’s track record.

In the rotation, Martinez seems like as good a bet as anyone on the roster to function as a true top-level starter. Behind him, the Cardinals will again lean on Adam Wainwright, who’s now 35. He turned in a fine but uninspiring 2016 season after missing much of 2015 due to a ruptured Achilles. Mike Leake’s first season in St. Louis did little to change his profile as a mid-rotation pitcher, although he did post a career-best 1.5 BB/9. Lynn is a question mark after missing all of last season, even though he was quietly terrific in four straight seasons before that. Michael Wacha seems a reasonable bet to rebound after struggling in 2016, but his shoulder health remains a concern. And the team might sorely miss top prospect Alex Reyes, who will be sidelined for the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery last month. Luke Weaver, Gant and others give the Cardinals solid depth, but their rotation still perhaps appears a bit vulnerable behind Martinez.

The questioning tone of the previous two paragraphs may give too negative an impression — the Cardinals have plenty of talent, and much of their success in recent years has been due to surprisingly strong performances by players who didn’t look like impact types before they started posting big numbers. Jedd Gyorko’s 30-homer showing last season after two straight bad years with the Padres is but one example. The Cardinals organization has earned way too much credit to be dismissed. It’s notable, though, the degree to which the Cards are leaning on good players rather than great ones, especially as many of their key assets age.

Speaking of Gyorko, the Cardinals also still must decide how to divvy up playing time in their infield. Despite Gyorko’s strong performance last season, Kolten Wong appears to have the inside track on the second base job, with the Cardinals understandably still interested in the potential for his package of defensive and baserunning tools to add up to something more. Diaz and Peralta currently slot at shortstop and third, respectively, leaving Gyorko without a regular position. Between Wong’s inconsistency and Peralta’s age, though, Gyorko will likely find plenty of playing time. Peralta in particular is coming off a poor season, and it’s easy to imagine Gyorko taking over the starting role at third if Peralta doesn’t bounce back. Gyorko could also occasionally give Carpenter a rest against tough lefties. Greg Garcia, who quietly had a terrific year in 2016, will be a factor at the leftmost three infield positions as well.

Finally, while Molina will obviously handle the bulk of the Cardinals’ catching duties in 2017 (health permitting), the team faces the possibility of a big change at the catcher position in the near future. Molina’s contract contains a mutual option for 2018, but he could be nearing the end of his time in St. Louis, and the team is excited about Carson Kelly, who played in the high minors last season. Molina and the Cardinals are still toying with the possibility of an extension, but the Cards will likely be wary of a big commitment to a 34-year-old catcher, even one as crucial to the team’s recent success as Molina has been. Kelly’s development could also be a factor.

Deal Of Note

In early December, the Cardinals traded lefty Jaime Garcia to the Braves, receiving righties Gant and Chris Ellis, along with infielder Luke Dykstra. It’s a move the Cardinals might not mind having back, thanks to Reyes’ injury. At the time, though, they were looking at what appeared to be a rotation surplus, and Garcia, who had a $12MM option for 2017 before hitting free agency, seemed like the best candidate to depart.

Gant isn’t the pitcher Garcia is, but he’s optionable and controllable, giving the Cardinals a useful bit of flexibility even if he never improves much on his surprisingly interesting 2016 rookie season, in which he posted a robust 8.8 K/9 over 50 innings (albeit with a 4.86 ERA and 3.8 BB/9). He could also become a bullpen asset at some point. Ellis adds a bit of upside to the deal — he walked 5.4 batters per nine innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year but still has an outside shot at a MLB career if he can improve his command. If he does, a future in the bullpen is a possibility. Dykstra looks like a fringe prospect after struggling somewhat in 2016, but he only turned 21 in November and could still emerge as a potentially useful second baseman.

Overview

The Cardinals should remain tough in 2017, although they increasingly look like a team in transition. They will, and should, try to make the playoffs this season, but it will also be interesting to see how younger players like Diaz, Wong, Grichuk, Piscotty, Kelly, Martinez and Weaver develop.

What’s your take on the Cardinals’ winter? (link to poll for mobile app users …)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

John Mozeliak Discusses Yadier Molina Contract Situation

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 7:17pm CDT

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak addressed the contract situation of long-time catcher Yadier Molina with Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Though he declined to address specifics of any extension talks, Mozeliak emphasized that the club is “always open for business.”

That comment largely confirms the status quo; it has long been assumed that the Cards would attempt to work out a new contract for Molina, whose former extension includes only a mutual option for 2018. As camp opened, the sides were said to have begun at least preliminary talks, and agent Melvin Roman said recently that “both sides are trying to work hard and see if we can make it happen.” At the moment, Molina is away from the club while he competes with the Puerto Rican entrant in the World Baseball Classic.

But Mozeliak did also make clear that the organization wouldn’t put any timelines on talks. “We are not a deadline organization, historically,” he explained. “So, as far as timing and how that goes, I’m not drawing any lines in the sand.” Whether or not Molina and his representatives would be amenable to continuing discussions into the season remains to be seen, though Mozeliak’s comments seem to put that possibility on the table.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals GM didn’t express any alarm at recent comments from former big leaguer Bengie Molina, who suggested his brother would test free agency if he didn’t receive an offer to his liking. That’s to be expected, Mozeliak indicated. Much as the Cardinals star will be looking out for his own interests, the veteran exec says he’ll be “trying to do what’s best for [the Cardinals] organization,” noting that “there is always a short-term approach and a long-term approach” that must be accounted for even as he acknowledged Molina’s importance to the team.

Molina’s central role and workhorse approach present a somewhat unique situation. At 34 years of age, it’s at best questionable whether Molina can continue to thrive while playing 130 or more games annually. And the team has a prized prospect on the way in Carson Kelly. Figuring out how lengthy a commitment to make, and at what price, isn’t straightforward for the Cards. Molina’s current contract paid him $75MM over five years, with the final $2MM of that guarantee coming in the form of a buyout of the $15MM mutual option.

Cardinals Notes: Piscotty, Sierra

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2017 at 7:55am CDT

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Cardinals outfielder Stephen Piscotty is working to correct some bad habits in his swing that were related to the movement/placement of his back leg. Piscotty and hitting coach John Mabry break down some previous mechanical flaws in the 26-year-old’s swing to Goold, with Piscotty adding that his goal is to be able to elevate the ball more often. With his previous swing mechanics, Piscotty feels that he focused too much on his upper half and would subsequently roll over too many pitches and hit too many grounders. Mabry notes that Piscotty would like to boost his home run total from the low 20s to 30 or more. Per Goold, Piscotty is likely tabbed as the Cardinals’ cleanup hitter heading into the 2017 campaign.
Goold also reports that 20-year-old Low-Class-A outfielder Magneuris Sierra has turned heads in Cardinals camp with his speed and defensive prowess. While Sierra isn’t pushing either Tommy Pham or Jose Martinez for a spot in the team’s Major League bench, he could move quickly through the organization and jump to Double-A to open the current season. Manager Mike Matheny lauded Sierra for his defensive ability and noted that his bat and approach give him a chance to be a well-rounded player in the Majors. Last season in the Class-A Midwest League, Sierra batted .307/.335/.395 with three homers and 31 steals in 122 games.

NL Notes: Reds, Rockies, Wisler, Schafer

By Jeff Todd | March 13, 2017 at 5:25pm CDT

Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams gave an interesting interview to David Laurila of Fangraphs that’s worth a read. The top Cincy baseball decisionmaker noted that it’s harder for clubs of that market size to pay solid veterans on short-term deals during a rebuilding campaign, which is one of several factors that tends to make the process more painful. But the organization is plainly committed to doing it and doing it right. Williams detailed many different initiatives underway after an exhaustive review of “where we thought dollars would have a better return on investment than at the major league payroll level.” You’ll want to give the post a full read.

Here’s more from the National League:

With Ian Desmond set to miss a chunk of time early in the season, the Rockies are sorting through their options for filling in, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. Mark Reynolds is the obvious choice as a primary replacement, of course, but the team will need to line up some bodies behind him. With manager Bud Black saying the club hopes to “take advantage” of the versatility of some of their own players, he lined up each of Jordan Patterson, Stephen Cardullo, and Cristhian Adames at first in drills. Whether the organization might look at external names isn’t known, but Black did say that he has not heard any discussion surrounding former Rockies first bagger Justin Morneau.
Righty Matt Wisler is still trying to establish himself for the Braves, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The 24-year-old has been hit hard this spring, as he was in the majors last year, and there doesn’t seem to be much chance that he’ll crack the MLB rotation unless there’s an injury or big performance downturn during the season. Still, manager Brian Snitker says he’s a believer — at least in the quality of Wisler’s offerings. “[I]t’s just location– fastball location,” Black said of Wisler’s struggles. “He’s just got to keep working on location. The stuff is there. The kid’s stuff is too good not to be successful.”
Jordan Schafer’s efforts to make the Cardinals roster as a lefty reliever have run into some difficulties, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch Reports. The 30-year-old is dealing with forearm soreness, with the root cause yet to be determined. He hadn’t been particularly effective in his five outings anyway, and struggled upon reaching Triple-A briefly last year with the Dodgers organization. But Schafer was actually quite impressive at Double-A in 2016, working to a 3.15 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 over forty frames.

Injury Could Affect Trevor Rosenthal's Season-Opening Role

By Connor Byrne | March 12, 2017 at 2:22pm CDT

It appears the right lat muscle soreness Cardinals righty Trevor Rosenthal has been battling will kill his chances of winning a place in the team’s rotation. Moreover, it could stop the ex-closer from beginning the year as a multi-inning fireman, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “Rosenthal – now, saying could he get the innings he needs to contribute as a starter or a multiple-inning relief appearance? “I think that is still in question,” said manager Mike Matheny. “It’s very important that at some point this week he gets into a game and we can get that pitch count up.” Regardless of whether Rosenthal is well enough by April to toss multiple innings in an appearance, someone figures to serve as that type of weapon for the Cardinals. General manager John Mozeliak called it “very appealing” to Matheny, and Goold adds that John Gant, Matthew Bowman, Miguel Socolovich, Tyler Lyons and Sam Tuivailala are possibilities to fill that role.

John Gant Impressing Cardinals

By Connor Byrne | March 12, 2017 at 10:57am CDT

After coming over from Atlanta in an offseason trade involving Jaime Garcia, righty John Gant might be pitching his way into the Cardinals’ 2017 plans, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Gant, who worked out of both the Braves’ bullpen and rotation in his 50-inning big league debut last year, is “really opening some eyes,” bench coach David Bell told Hummel on Saturday. That came after the 24-year-old tossed three perfect innings and threw 22 of 31 pitches for strikes in a start against his previous team. Overall, Gant has allowed a mere one run on three hits in eight spring innings. “I know he’s had success in the past but I think he’s really put himself into a position where we’re taking a close look at him,” continued Bell.

Matt Carpenter Ten Days Away From Hitting In Game

By Jeff Todd | March 9, 2017 at 10:53pm CDT

Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter is playing, but only bunting in game action as he works through lower back pain. He’s about ten days from being ready to hit in a game, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). While that doesn’t leave a ton of time for Carpenter to ramp up for Opening Day, it seems he’ll be able to do so barring a setback.

Gyorko's Position Remains Uncertain

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2017 at 10:34pm CDT

Jedd Gyorko isn’t certain where he’ll be playing on a day to day basis in 2017, but Cardinals manager Mike Matheny tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the slugging utility infielder will have the opportunity to pick up plenty of at-bats. “I think right now it’s compete for lots of playing time,” said the skipper. “So we’re still in that same mode, and we’ll decide when we break with our club what roles look like.” Gyorko, who started 25+ games at second base, shortstop and third base last year, tells Goold that he dropped some weight in an effort to improve his range and increase the value of his newfound versatility. He also notes that so long as the Cardinals are winning, his own placement on the diamond/in the lineup is secondary. “I could be selfish and demand that I play every day and if I don’t then say I want to be traded,” says Gyorko. “That’s not who I am. That’s not who I want to be.” Gyorko will compete with Jhonny Peralta for at-bats at third base and can also play each other infield slot.

Carpenter Out At Least Another Week

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2017 at 6:16pm CDT

First baseman Matt Carpenter will be out for “at least another week” due to lower back tightness that has sidelined him since last Wednesday, writes Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Carpenter, who will slide across the diamond for the Cardinals this season (with Jhonny Peralta manning third base), was forced to withdraw from the 2017 World Baseball Classic due to his back troubles.

Rosenthal Beginning "Preventative Care," Hopes To Throw By Week's End

By Jeff Todd | March 7, 2017 at 8:20am CDT

There was a bit of a scare for the Cardinals when righty Trevor Rosenthal went in for an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his shoulder and back, but as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the news was good. The hope is he’ll be ready to begin throwing again by the end of the week, though GM John Mozeliak noted the hurler will begin “preventative care” right away. It’ll hopefully be little more than a blip, but the time off does impact Rosenthal’s effort to work as a starter in camp. Whether he’ll move back to relief work upon his return isn’t yet known.

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