- Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk underwent left knee surgery to remove loose cartilage earlier this offseason, he told reporters – including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch – on Sunday (Twitter link). Grichuk added that he’s doing well after a month-plus recovery. The 25-year-old has now undergone surgeries in back-to-back offseasons, including a procedure to repair a sports hernia last winter. With the signing of big-money center fielder Dexter Fowler in free agency, Grichuk is in line for the everyday job in left next season (depth chart).
Cardinals Rumors
Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, Martinez, Wacha, Dozier, Gonzales
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak addressed questions from fans and media during the club’s Winter Warm-Up event this weekend. Here are some of Mozeliak’s hot stove-related comments, courtesy of Derrick Goold, Jeff Gordon and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch…
- After failing to reach agreements with Carlos Martinez or Michael Wacha before Friday’s arbitration filing deadline, the Cardinals won’t pursue further negotiation with either right-hander and will instead go to arbitration hearings. Martinez asked for $4.25MM while the Cards countered with a $3.9MM offer, and Wacha filed for $3.2MM with a $2.775MM counter from St. Louis. As Goold notes, this will be the first time the Cardinals have gone to an arbitration hearing with any player in 17 years. Mozeliak explained that the Cards had explored using the “file-and-trial” strategy in the last couple of years before finally taking the stance during this winter’s crop of arb-eligible players.
- Martinez and the Cardinals were discussing a multi-year extension this winter, though obviously no agreement was reached before Friday’s deadline. The hearing “would not put a chill” on the relationship between the two sides, as Goold put it, so talks could very possibly resume during Spring Training once Martinez’s 2017 salary has been decided by the arbiter. For his part, Martinez said (via an interpreter) that he wants to spend the rest of his career with the team.
- St. Louis was rather surprisingly linked to Brian Dozier’s name in trade rumors last month, though later reports downplayed the Cardinals’ interest. Mozeliak said his team’s pursuit of Dozier “was news to me.” As Goold explains, the connection could have been due to the Cards’ discussions with teams in order to properly gauge market values, rather than an actual interest in acquiring Dozier. “If [the Cardinals] knew what a top-tier second baseman was going to command on this pricey trade market then they also could evaluate their own players, and they could evaluate their own offers,” Goold writes.
- Left-hander Marco Gonzales said he is feeling healthy and is hoping to begin the season in the Triple-A rotation. Gonzales, picked 19th overall by the Cardinals in 2013, quickly reached the bigs to toss 34 2/3 innings for the club in 2014, and injuries have since derailed his progress. Shoulder problems limited the southpaw to just one game in 2015, and Gonzales missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery.
Cardinals Avoid Arbitration With Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist
- The Cardinals have announced arb deals with Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Rosenthal receives $6.4MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which is just $100K over his projection. Siegrist projected at $1.9MM, but his salary has yet to be reported.
Cardinals, Matt Adams Avoid Arbitration
The Cardinals and first baseman Matt Adams have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.8MM, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (on Twitter). That figure is an exact match with the projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Adams, 28, missed roughly three weeks of the 2016 season with shoulder troubles but was productive in a part-time role when healthy. The slugging lefty batted .249/.309/.471 with 16 homers in a 327 trips to the plate. The shoulder injury and Adams’ deficiencies against left-handed pitching combined to limit his on-field action last season, and with Matt Carpenter penciled in as the everyday first baseman for the 2017 club, he’s unlikely to see an increase in playing time (barring injuries elsewhere on the roster). Adams has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate this winter, and the Royals are one team that has shown some preliminary interest. However, the free-agent market is flooded with players of comparable skill sets that don’t figure to come with significant asking prices at this point, which likely limits interest Adams to some extent.
Adams has long been a weapon against right-handed pitching when healthy, mashing opposite-handed pitchers at a .284/.331/.480 clip in his career. Lefties have befuddled the big man, however, as he’s mustered a woeful .212/.243/.342 slash against them. Durability has also been an issue for Adams in the past. In addition to last year’s shoulder troubles, he had brief DL stints for oblique and calf injuries in 2013 and 2014, respectively, before missing about half of the 2015 campaign with a torn right quadriceps muscle.
This marks the second trip through the arbitration process for Adams, who will be eligible once more next winter before becoming a free agent upon completion of the 2018 campaign. Remember that you can follow along with this year’s arb class using MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom & Carlos Martinez
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Click here to view all of the 2017 projections.
Ever since Dontrelle Willis received $4.35 million in arbitration in 2006, it has been hard for first-time eligible starting pitchers to top his salary. The record stood for ten years, until last year Dallas Keuchel took home $7.25 million following a Cy Young Award-winning season. In the decade since Willis received his record first-year salary for starting pitchers, many pitchers have come extremely close to hitting his $4.35 million or have actually hit it. David Price matched Willis’ $4.35 million in 2012 and Shelby Miller did so last year. Seven other starting pitchers have earned between $4 and $4.35 million in the last decade as well.
Other pitchers who would likely have exceeded Willis’ record received multi-year deals, which usually removes them from consideration when looking for comparables. Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were both coming off Cy Young seasons when they received multi-year deals, and Lance Lynn and Cole Hamels also received multi-year deals and subsequently missed out on breaking the record as well. Many elite starting pitchers are worthwhile candidates for multi-year deals, so it is not surprising that few of them actually receive one-year deals and become comparables. Among pitchers in the last decade with 30 career wins, 450 career innings, career ERAs below 3.50 and at least 100 platform year innings, five of nine signed multi-year deals before reaching agreement on one-year deals for their first year of salary arbitration.
Modeling arbitration salaries is obviously something that requires much precision, but the psychological barrier of $4.35 million is something that emotionless mathematical modeling will miss. As a result, I have written several articles over the years in which I explained that certain pitchers who were projected just over $4.35 million probably would not actually do so. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez may be two such pitchers today, although Martinez is more likely to best that amount.
Jacob deGrom is coming off a mediocre platform year (for arbitration purposes) where he only won seven games amidst throwing 148 innings. Although his ERA was 3.04, lack of counting stats is likely to hurt his arbitration case. His career numbers may offset this—he has 30 career wins and a 2.74 ERA across 479.1 innings and has struck out 492 batters. He also won Rookie of the Year in 2014. His projection is $4.5 million, although I think there is good reason to believe that he will fall short of this.
Carlos Martinez has a much stronger case, and is projected to earn $5.3 million. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings with 174 strikeouts, and has a career 34-21 record with a 3.32 ERA in 492.2 innings with 466 strikeouts. Few pitchers can match his performance, and he may be able to top the old record of $4.35 million, although he will come nowhere near the new record. The peculiarity of Martinez’ case is that is that there are no comparable pitchers with salaries in the range between $4.35 and $7.25, so he will be filling in some empty space if he does exceed the old Willis number.
In the last five years, there have only been five pitchers who had 25 career wins, 400 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and career ERAs under 3.50 who did not sign multi-year deals. All five received between $3.97 and $4.35 million in arbitration. These include Shelby Miller at $4.35 million, Matt Harvey at $4.32 million, Doug Fister and Alex Cobb both at $4 million, and Stephen Strasburg at $3.97 million.
It is difficult to see a good reason why Jacob deGrom would earn above or below this range as a result. Although he had slightly fewer innings than all of them, Doug Fister in 2013 was coming off just 161.2 innings and Alex Cobb was coming off 166.1 innings. Both won 10 games, more than deGrom’s seven, but neither had a Rookie of the Year Award under his belt and deGrom’s career ERA is lower than both of theirs. He also has more strikeouts than either had in their careers at this point as well. As a result, I think he will probably top their $4 million salaries.
I think deGrom will struggle to top Matt Harvey’s $4.32 million from last season, though. Harvey had a better career ERA and a better platform ERA, along with many more platform innings. Something around $4.2 million seems likely for deGrom—below his $4.5 million projection.
Martinez, on the other hand, does seem like a likely candidate to top the five aforementioned starters’ earnings. None of them had more than 13 platform year wins, and Martinez had 16. His 3.04 ERA is in the middle of the pack for the group, but his 195.1 innings total is only bested by Miller. His 34 career wins are bested by Alex Cobb, but exceed the other four starters. His innings and strikeouts are similar to them as well.
All things considered, he has a clear cut case to beat the $4.35 million mark. Comparing him to Shelby Miller alone, he went 16-9 as compared with Miller’s 6-17 in his platform year. His platform year ERA was nearly identical and he threw only 10 less innings but had three more strikeouts than Miller. In his career, he has two more wins than Miller but 14 fewer losses. He also has a relatively similar ERA. Although he has thrown about eighty fewer innings, he has only struck out seventeen fewer batters. Martinez is likely to succeed in asking for a number higher than Miller’s $4.35. But given that the main difference is ten platform year wins, I believe he will probably not get the $5.3 million projection my model estimates. I think something between $4.5 and $5 million is likely for Martinez.
Both of these pitchers are projected for slightly more than they will probably earn. The symbolic barrier at $4.35 million is still a factor despite Keuchel’s new record, which was set up by his 232 innings of 2.48 ERA pitching and the hardware to match. Because of that, the model is likely to miss on starting pitchers near that until that symbolic barrier has been passed enough times.
Royals, Cardinals Had “Preliminary” Trade Talks Regarding Matt Adams
Earlier tonight, the Royals added a potential DH candidate when they acquired defensively-challenged slugger Peter O’Brien from the Diamondbacks, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that they also have had some “preliminary” talks with the Cardinals about first baseman Matt Adams (Twitter link).
[Related: Kansas City Royals Depth Chart | St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart]
The 28-year-old Adams has long seemed like a potential trade candidate. The Cardinals told Matt Carpenter back in November that he was going to open the season as the everyday first baseman, and Adams has never lined up anywhere else on the diamond in either the Majors or the minors. Because both Carpenter and Adams swing from the left side of the dish, there’s no potential for any kind of platoon scenario, and with a 6’3″, 260-pound listing, Adams isn’t likely to find much success in an already-full Cardinals’ outfield.
In Kansas City, though, Adams would be able to find much more consistent at-bats, presumably as a designated hitter. Currently, the Royals figure to give Jorge Soler plenty of looks there and also rotate players like Mike Moustakas and Cheslor Cuthbert into the mix from time to time. That outlook could change if the Royals deal an outfielder, thereby pushing Soler into the field with more regularity. (Jarrod Dyson has been an oft-rumored trade candidate this winter.) The Royals are actually trying to pare down the payroll a bit, but Adams is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $2.8MM salary in 2017, so the Royals could find a way to squeeze him into the payroll (especially if any additional veterans are moved following last month’s trade of Wade Davis). As a bonus, Adams is controllable through 2018 via the arbitration process.
Adams has long been a force against right-handed pitching when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, amassing a lifetime .284/.331/.480 battling line when holding the platoon advantage. However, durability hasn’t been a strong point for Adams, who had brief DL stints for oblique and calf injuries in 2013 and 2014, respectively, before missing about half of the 2015 campaign with a torn right quadriceps muscle. He also missed about three weeks this past season due to inflammation in his left shoulder. Adams’ playing time has also been suppressed by dreadful performance against left-handed pitching; St. Louis has limited him to 280 career PAs against lefties, and the resulting .212/.243/.352 batting line and 29.3 percent strikeout rate aren’t encouraging.
The other question to address when considering an Adams trade is that the market is currently rife with sluggers bearing similar skill sets. Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison, Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard are all free agents, as are left-handed-hitting outfielders like Michael Saunders and Colby Rasmus. While most of those players figure to sign for more than Adams’ projected salary, it’s doubtful that many of the bunch will earn significantly more. And, those free agents would obviously be available to the Royals without requiring the team to surrender any minor league talent. If the Royals are simply looking for DH candidates with power that can be had on one-year deals, then a right-handed bat like Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds or even old friend Billy Butler are free-agent options as well.
Put another way, it seems unlikely that the Royals or any other team would have a strong sense of urgency to swing a deal for Adams unless the cost of acquisition was truly palatable. That’s not intended to be a knock on Adams, but the supply of this type of player greatly outweighs the demand in the current market.
3 Remaining Needs: NL Central
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
So far, we’ve checked in on the AL Central, NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the NL Central, a division featuring the World Series-winning Cubs:
- Negotiate with Jake Arrieta. The Cubs appear set to try to negotiate a deal with their star righty this month after the two sides swap arbitration figures. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted this week, it’s hard to assess the Cubs’ chances of extending Arrieta, or what kind of money he should ultimately get after a good, but still disappointing, 2016 season. Negotiations between the Cubs and Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, will be an important story line in Wrigleyville over the next few weeks. And even if there’s no extension, expect to see at least a couple interesting Arrieta-related headlines — he’s projected to make $16.8MM through arbitration in 2017, so even arriving at a one-year salary will be a relatively high-stakes endeavor.
- Keep an eye out for starting pitching help. The Cubs’ roster is extraordinarily talented and deep, so much of what we’ve heard about the team since their swap of Jorge Soler for Wade Davis and their signing of Koji Uehara has pertained to potential role players. One name who’s repeatedly come up has been that of Tyson Ross, who (as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in a recent chat) would be an interesting fit with the Cubs in that the team’s depth would give him the luxury of taking his time returning from shoulder injury, then providing rotation help once fully healthy. In any case, the Cubs could still perhaps use a bit more starting pitching, although options like Rob Zastryzny, Aaron Brooks and Jake Buchanan do give them a variety of palatable spot starters.
- Consider adding a bit more left-handed relief. The Cubs have a heavily right-handed bullpen (with veteran Brian Duensing, waiver claim David Rollins, Rule 5 pick Caleb Smith and Jack Leathersich topping their current list of lefty relief options), so they could consider adding a lefty as a late-offseason move. They’ve been connected to Justin Wilson of the Tigers, and they could also make a move to bump lefty Mike Montgomery from the rotation back to the bullpen. Of course, the idea that lefty relief is a serious need for the Cubs is already nit-picking — they do already have a sufficient quantity of lefties, and their excellent group of righty relievers somewhat mitigates the need for southpaws, particularly since newcomer Uehara is very tough on lefty batters.
- Add pitching help. The Reds haven’t signed a single player to a big-league deal to this point in the offseason, which isn’t necessarily surprising — as a rebuilding club, they shouldn’t feel an urgent need to make short-term upgrades, and they might get better deals on helpful players later in the winter anyway. Last week, MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Jeff Todd looked at big-league free agent pitchers the Reds could pursue, focusing in large part on the Reds’ open closer role, which could provide an opportunity both for interested free agents (who might be able to establish or reestablish themselves as closers in Cincinnati) and for the team (which might be able to deal relievers they sign this winter at next year’s deadline).
- Find opportunities for young players. The Reds’ projected 25-man roster still includes a variety of veterans. The team hasn’t been able to strike deals this offseason, though, in part because those veterans either have no-trade protection or aren’t in high demand. For 2017, that leaves them in somewhat of an awkward position, particularly in their middle infield, where they have prospects Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera ready for playing time and veterans Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart blocking them. Phillips, of course, is one of those veterans with a no-trade clause. The Reds might not make any moves before the start of the season to deal with their middle-infield issue, but they’ll have to deal with it one way or another, perhaps by getting creative with various infielders’ playing time. Peraza could also occasionally play center field.
- Acquire more catching depth. The Reds have identified catching depth as an area of need — Devin Mesoraco has struggled to stay healthy in the past two seasons, and the team doesn’t have enough help behind Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart. Rule 5 pick Stuart Turner is another possibility, but he has a limited offensive track record and has never played above Double-A.
- Add power. Assessing what the Brewers perceive their needs to be at this point is difficult, since they’ve been relatively quiet since the Winter Meetings and they don’t figure to contend in 2017. One area where they might have an opportunity, though, is in adding power to their lineup. First base is mostly open for them after they non-tendered Chris Carter, and their string of veteran trades leaves them with what should be plenty of money available to add a bat. The team did sign Eric Thames for a relatively substantial $16MM guarantee earlier in the offseason, and Thames currently tops their depth chart at first. Thames, though, can also play outfield, and the team’s relative uncertainty in the corners (where they have trade candidate Ryan Braun and the interesting but still unproven Domingo Santana) could clear space for Thames to move around. Meanwhile, the glut of power bats remaining on the free agent market (including Carter and many others) could give the Brewers an opportunity to add someone who could potentially contribute in 2017 and possibly fetch a prospect in a trade next summer.
- Continue evaluating Braun’s market. The Brewers and Dodgers reportedly discussed a deal last summer that would have sent Braun to Los Angeles for a package that included Yasiel Puig, but Braun’s market has been relatively quiet this winter. Now, the same market conditions mentioned in the previous bullet might have an impact on Braun’s market. There have also been whispers that Braun’s large contract and PED history might be problems as well. Regardless, with much of the Brewers’ previous core already having departed, there’s little reason for the Brewers not to investigate potential trades involving Braun.
- Create competition. The Brewers likely won’t be competitive in 2017, but they’ve already acquired a fair amount of interesting talent in their rebuild, and they have plenty of flexibility heading into the near future. With that in mind, they’ve added a number of marginal players this offseason, including catcher Jett Bandy, infielder Eric Sogard, and pitchers Tommy Milone, Ryan Webb and Andy Oliver. The moves that landed those players weren’t glamorous, but they’ll help give the Brewers depth they’ll need to get through 162 games, while also limiting the possibility of disaster should players further up the depth chart struggle.
- Consider continuing to add starting pitching. The Pirates made a big move to steady a wobbly rotation when they re-signed Ivan Nova late last month. Still, the team could use a bit more pitching help, as it currently figures to be heavily reliant on youngsters behind Gerrit Cole and Nova. The Pirates have been connected to White Sox star Jose Quintana, who certainly would be a big step forward. Beyond that, GM Neal Huntington has been outwardly noncommittal about the possibility of further additions, noting that he is open to bringing in more pitching but adding that “we like the group as is,” via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Balance the bullpen. With the recent addition of Daniel Hudson to a group that already included Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, Juan Nicasio, Antonio Bastardo, A.J. Schugel, Jared Hughes and others, the Pirates have what appears to be a decent group of relievers. That group, however, is heavily left-handed, with Watson, Rivero, Bastardo, Wade LeBlanc and Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb all pitching from the left side. Watson’s name has come up in trade rumors this offseason, and either he or Bastardo look like reasonable candidates to be dealt, partially to get value from them but also partially to clear space for more right-handed relief help.
- Figure out whether Andrew McCutchen stays or goes. Following the collapse of trade negotiations with the Nationals, Huntington said the Pirates were likely to keep their star center fielder. Rumblings surrounding McCutchen have continued, albeit in more muted form, over the past several weeks, however. There’s also the question of what position he’ll play in 2017, as there have been various reports about the likelihood that the Pirates will move him to a corner after he posted poor defensive numbers in center in 2016.
- Figure out who’s on second. The latest Cardinals-related rumors have connected them to Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. While Dozier would undoubtedly help almost any team, though, most indications have been that the Cardinals’ interest in striking a deal with Minnesota isn’t particularly strong. Cardinals brass have also strongly praised Kolten Wong, who is signed through 2020 with an option for 2021 and who currently appears unlikely to be traded elsewhere.
- Consider extending Carlos Martinez. As of October, both Martinez and the Cardinals reportedly had interest in extension, and as Jeff noted last week, deal discussions could happen in the coming weeks as the two sides discuss Martinez’s pending arbitration case. The 25-year-old’s youth, blistering fastball and strong performances the last two seasons figure to make him a player well worth keeping, if the right deal can be found.
- Consider adding another outfielder. The Cardinals have a perfectly good starting outfield of Randal Grichuk, Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty. But as Viva El Birdos’ Ben Markham recently pointed out, the team’s fourth outfielder, Tommy Pham, has struggled to stay healthy, and the team doesn’t have great depth beyond that. As Markham notes, Brandon Moss is probably the best outfielder available who could conceivably sign as a backup, and Moss is a lefty hitter who could complement righties Grichuk and Piscotty in the corners.
Twins Reportedly Asking Teams For Final Offers On Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier’s name has been a focal point of the rumor mill for the better part of a month, but his prolonged saga may be drawing to a close, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins have asked interested teams to make their best offers for Dozier in the coming days. According to Neal, Minnesota doesn’t want the scenario to drag on too much longer and will prepare to open the 2017 season with Dozier as the second baseman if no palatable offer surfaces.
Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. The Twins, meanwhile, have understandably been insistent on the inclusion of at least one more well-regarded prospect. The Dodgers “haven’t blinked,” however, according to Neal. That lines up with this week’s report from FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the Dodgers aren’t willing to include any of Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon in a trade to acquire Dozier.
Other teams to express interest in Dozier at some point this winter include the Giants, Cardinals, Nationals and Braves, per Neal. However, there’s been very little chatter surrounding the Giants’ interest in recent weeks, while reports out of St. Louis and out of D.C. have suggested that interest from those teams may be somewhat overstated. ESPN’s Mark Saxon reported earlier this week that while the Cardinals may have some interest, they’re not actively pursuing Dozier. More recently, he tweeted that the Cardinals’ reported interest was part of the Twins’ effort “to extract max value from the Dodgers.” Meanwhile, Chelsea Janes from the Washington Post reported this week that any inquiries made on the Nationals’ behalf haven’t been serious in nature.
Atlanta hasn’t been mentioned too often as a potential landing spot for Dozier, though there’s certainly a reasonable fit there. Jace Peterson projects as the everyday second baseman at the moment, but Dozier’s bat would represent a marked upgrade. Adding Dozier would run somewhat counter to many of the Braves’ recent maneuverings on the trade market, which have generally taken a more long-term focus, though Atlanta did send three mid-level prospects to the Cardinals to acquire Jaime Garcia. Of course, Dozier would require top-tier young talent, and there’s been no indication that the Braves are willing to deal that type of talent for shorter-term gains.
While it’s certainly possible that one of these teams steps up and makes an offer to rival the Dodgers, or that another surprise suitor emerges from the woodwork, it seems that the likeliest scenario for a Dozier trade would simply be for the Twins and Dodgers to find a common ground. Neal notes that if the Twins were going to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap, Dozier would’ve been dealt by now, which indicates that a trade would probably require L.A. to improve its current offer.
Considering the fact that Dozier is controlled for another two seasons at a total of $15MM, the Twins don’t need to simply take the best offer that someone puts on the table. While many point to Dozier’s prodigious second half in 2016, he’s somewhat quietly been a very good player for Minnesota over the past four seasons, averaging 4.1 fWAR and 4.5 rWAR per year in that time. The Twins could well hold onto Dozier until the trade deadline, when a larger market for his services — due to injuries to and/or underperformance from second basemen around the league –could emerge. Of course, in doing so, they run the risk that Dozier has another poor start to the season, as he did in 2016, or that he incurs an injury himself.
Mozeliak, Matheny Offer High Praise For Kolten Wong
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and manager Mike Matheny have both heaped praise onto second baseman Kolten Wong this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, further suggesting that the 26-year-old isn’t likely to be traded. Wong’s name surfaced in rumors earlier this winter and has come up in speculation that has been linked to St. Louis’ reported interest in Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, but Mozeliak speaks highly of the former first-round pick. “I don’t make lineups but you have to have the understanding of patience,” said Mozeliak. “He’s such a talented defender and when your team is built around groundball pitching it’s nice to have that behind you.” Mozeliak and Matheny have both called Wong a “Gold Glove-caliber everyday second baseman,” Goold notes. Wong tells Goold that he’s trying his best to put a poor 2016 season behind him and has been working out with former teammate Jon Jay, focusing specifically on speed and explosiveness rather than adding muscle. Wong has $24.25MM remaining on the five-year, $25.5MM extension he inked last March.
Latest On Brian Dozier
TODAY: St. Louis is not “actively” working to acquire Dozier, per ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon (via Twitter).
YESTERDAY, 8:55pm: Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets that the Nationals haven’t made any “serious” inquiries in Dozier. That could suggest that the Nats at least did some due diligence and checked in on the asking price, but with no natural fit for Dozier in D.C., it doesn’t seem they’re in hot pursuit. For those speculating on other possible landing spots for Dozier, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Braves aren’t in on Dozier, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that the Athletics aren’t in play either.
3:56pm: The Cardinals and Nationals are both among the teams showing interest in Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link). The Cardinals are “very much in” the mix for the slugger, while the Nats “remain in dialogue” with the Twins. The Dodgers and Giants, two clubs previously connected to Dozier (moreso Los Angeles), are also still involved, though the Giants are “trying to get creative” to make a deal work, as per Wolfson.
Multiple teams were known to have checked in on Dozier this winter, which wasn’t surprising given his power explosion last year (42 homers) and very affordable contract ($15MM owed through the 2018 season). While his production over the last four seasons and his relatively low price tag would theoretically make him of interest to any team, the Cards and Nats are both somewhat surprising suitors given their infield surpluses.
St. Louis’ projected starting infield looks like Aledmys Diaz at short, Matt Carpenter at first, Jedd Gyorko at either third or second, perhaps alternating between the two positions to give playing time to Jhonny Peralta at third and Kolten Wong at second. That’s not even counting Carpenter’s own ability to move between second and third, nor does that include first baseman Matt Adams’ availability against righty pitching or the versatile Greg Garcia. One would think that if the Cardinals did acquire Dozier, at least one of these names would be going back to Minnesota — a younger, affordable player like Wong makes the most sense, though that’s just my speculation. Wong’s value is hardly at its peak right now, though, and any trade figures to be centered around young pitching.
Washington seems like even less of a fit, as Daniel Murphy is entrenched at second base, though metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 have long considered Murphy to be a below-average defender there. Acquiring Dozier to play second and moving Murphy to play first isn’t really a fit given the presence of Ryan Zimmerman. While the longtime Nats fixture has been plagued by injuries in recent years and saw his production badly drop off in 2016, Zimmerman is probably too expensive ($46MM through 2019) to simply be relegated to a bench role. The Nats also have third base spoken for in the form of Anthony Rendon.
With the Twins in rebuilding mode, trading Dozier for a wealth of prospects makes sense, though the club hasn’t been thought to be in any particular rush to move their second baseman given his value as an asset. The Dodgers were reportedly willing to offer top pitching prospect Jose De Leon as part of a Dozier trade, though Minnesota has been holding out for more, either from L.A. or another team.