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NL Notes: Cardinals, Nats, Benoit, Giants, Panik

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The Cardinals just wrapped up their third straight season without a playoff berth, which is all the more concerning given that team control is dwindling over Yadier Molina (two years), Matt Carpenter, Miles Mikolas, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha (one year apiece) and Adam Wainwright (pending free agent), as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out. The Redbirds are cognizant of the fact that the 36-year-old Molina won’t be around forever, chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said this week, adding: “Our timeframe with this club is now. It has been that way literally every year for many years.” There’s now a “palpable” impatience atop the St. Louis hierarchy, according to Goold, who reports that the Cardinals are poised to seek left-handed relief upgrades and left-handed power for their lineup this offseason as they work to snap a three-year playoff drought in 2019. The Cards have pitching depth to dangle in trades and plenty of money to spend, Goold notes, so it figures to be an active winter for the club.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • While nothing’s official, it’s “pretty clear” pending free-agent reliever Joaquin Benoit will retire, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. The 41-year-old Benoit joined the Nationals on a $1MM guarantee last winter, but a shoulder injury prevented him from throwing a pitch for the team during the regular season. Had Benoit been younger, he likely would have undergone surgery and then rehabbed his way back, general manager Mike Rizzo said last week. Understandably, though, Benoit doesn’t want to fight through a lengthy recovery period at his age. If the journeyman’s career is over, it’ll conclude with a 3.83 ERA, 212 holds and 53 saves over 1,068 2/3 innings.
  • Fresh off a rough season, Giants second baseman Joe Panik’s future in San Francisco is uncertain, considering the team’s next head of baseball operations may opt for someone else at the keystone, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California observes. Panik realizes as much, telling Pavlovic: “It’s all about whoever comes in and who they feel is the best fit for the organization going forward. You hope it’s you, but at the end of the day, it’s not your call.” Although the soon-to-be 28-year-old Panik batted a non-threatening .254/.307/.332 (75 wRC+) with four home runs in 392 plate appearances this season, he’s likely to score upward of $5MM during his second-last arb trip during the winter, Pavlovic writes. That’d be a solid raise over the $3.45MM Panik pulled in this year. As for his disappointing 2018, during which he missed time with thumb and groin injuries, Panik offered: “Once I went down with the thumb, I feel like I could just never get it back. It’s hard to explain to people … when your season is kind of choppy and broken up, it’s hard to sometimes find your rhythm. But when it comes down to it, you still have to find a way.”

Jedd Gyorko’s Future In St. Louis

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St. Louis Cardinals incumbent third baseman Jedd Gyorko’s power has diminished each of the last three seasons and it may be time to find a replacement, opines Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. It promises to be an important subject for the organization over the offseason.

Gyorko has provided valuable versatility for the Cards, seeing time at all four infield positions the last three years. His OBP has risen each year in St. Louis (.306 to .341 to .346), but his power output has gone the other way (.253 ISO to .200 to .154). On the whole, Gyorko’s proven a good gamble since his somewhat-surprising acquisition from the Padres in 2015 – and though he’s not known as a defensive stalwart, defensive metrics are less certain, crediting Gyorko with 24 DRS and 4.9 UZR at third base since 2016. Contractually, he’s guaranteed one more season at $13MM before a team option in 2020.

Finding a player that complements Gyorko’s skill set may be the judicious solution in the short term. The Cardinals front office is said to be “on the edge of giddy” about three third base prospects in their system who could be ready by 2020: Elehuris Montero, Nolan Gorman, and Malcom Nunez.

Gorman was listed as the Cardinals 6th ranked prospect by Baseball America, but the 20-year-old Montero will likely reach the big leagues before Gorman or Cuban-born Nunez, who is only seventeen years old. Montero tore through the Midwest League in 2018, hitting .322/.381/.529. After 24 games in High-A with the Palm Beach Cardinals, the 19-year-old could reach AA sooner rather than later. 

For next season, Gyorko’s role is not likely to change a whole lot – save for possibly in volume. Matt Carpenter started 74 games at third this year, but the Cardinals seem to prefer him on the right side. Top catching prospect Carson Kelly could be an option in short stints, as he played the position in 2013. He hit .269/.378/.395 in AAA and is ostensibly blocked behind the plate by Yadier Molina – but that feels more like a plan D than a plan A.

This year’s free agent class does provide a few palatable options. Bringing home World Series hero David Freese for a season would be a fun retro choice. Mike Moustakas’ name has been thrown out there as a potential stopgap solution as well. Then there are the big names – Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado. It’s unclear if the Cardinals are ready to commit the years and dollars to snag one of the elites, but regardless of the path they choose – they have options.

Check out the 2018-19 MLB Free Agent Tracker for a full list of upcoming free agents.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cardinals, Cubs

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The 2019 Reds payroll will be the team’s highest ever, owner Bob Castellini tells Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  We already knew that the Reds planned on spending more next season, though Castellini’s comments suggest a fairly notable increase over this season’s $101.34MM Opening Day payroll.  The team’s previous payroll high was $115.3MM on Opening Day 2015, and that total jumped to over $118MM by the end of that season.  However, Castellini also referenced increased organizational spending, which suggest he may not be referring exclusively to player payroll.  Regardless, Cincinnati will be shopping for multiple arms this winter, as Castellini notes that “We know we have to bolster the whole pitching situation.  Are we talking about one starter or two?  Two bullpen guys, three bullpen guys?”

More from Cincinnati and the NL Central….

  • MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took note of the fairly substantial drop in attendance seen at the Great American Ball Park this year, while Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that 2018 marked the Reds’ slowest year at the turnstiles since 1984.  Elsewhere around town, however, Cincinnati’s minor league soccer team FC Cincinnati is busy setting attendance records as they prepare to make the jump to the MLS in 2019, according to Sharon Coolidge and Patrick Brennan of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Losing the attendance battle to a minor league soccer team might be discouraging, but it’s also a clear indication for the Reds that a hunger exists in the city to support a winner.
  • The Cardinals are hoping to get their middle infield combo of Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong healthy this offseason with a little R&R.  Wong will avoid surgery on a balky left knee that led to some hamstring soreness later in the year, as per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  DeJong successful underwent surgery last week to remove a plate that from his left hand that was inserted to aid the healing process after he broke it in May. He’ll be in a cast for a few weeks, but should be healthy enough for offseason workouts before too long. DeJong struggled to regain his power stroke after returning in July, though that isn’t an uncommon short-term issue for players recovering from a broken hand.  St. Louis hopes to get this tandem healthy, as they’re both signed to fairly modest long-term deals. Wong is signed for two more seasons with a $12.5MM option for 2021, while DeJong signed an extension in March.
  • In Cubs news, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat took an early look at the questions Theo Epstein and company need to address this offseason.  The Cubs fell from first in runs scored to eighth in the second half, but exactly where in the lineup they’ll look to upgrade is as of yet unclear.  Perhaps the easiest way to improve the offense is to get Kris Bryant’s shoulder back in good form, as the former NL MVP was in and out of the lineup for much of the second half with shoulder soreness.  For now, the plan is to avoid surgery and hope that a longer offseason than usual helps the healing process.

Wainwright Wants To Pitch In 2019, Will Discuss New Deal With Cardinals

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There’s been plenty of speculation about whether Adam Wainwright was playing out his final season as a big leaguer, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Wainwright does want to continue pitching and has already been in touch with the Cardinals about a possible return. GM Mike Girsch seemingly confirmed as much, telling Goold that the two sides have had “general conversations” about a 2019 return.

The 37-year-old Wainwright’s future was in doubt for much of the year, as he pitched just 15 1/3 innings in April before hitting the disabled list due to elbow inflammation. Wainwright returned after a few weeks only to return to the disabled list (once again, due to elbow discomfort) after just 2 1/3 innings. That second DL stint lasted nearly four months.

Wainwright, however, rattled off 17 scoreless innings on a minor league rehab assignment and returned to the St. Louis rotation in September, making four starts down the stretch. He allowed four runs in three of those four outings and pitched to an overall 4.84 ERA in 22 1/3 innings, but he also turned in a dominant 25-to-4 K/BB ratio. Fielding-independent metrics pegged him for a true ERA more in the low-3.00s, and his average fastball sat at an even 90.0 mph — nearly identical to his career 90.4 mph average. Wainwright won’t turn 38 until Aug. 30 of next year, and it seems that he still has fuel left in the tank on what has been a terrific career to date.

[Related: St. Louis Cardinals depth chart and payroll outlook]

Exactly how he’d fit into the pitching staff, however, remains to be seen. The Cards project to have Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha and, if healthy, Alex Reyes in next year’s rotation. If Reyes’ injury troubles persist or if he’s moved to a bullpen role, the St. Louis organization has numerous internal alternatives in Luke Weaver, Dakota Hudson, John Gant, Austin Gomber and Daniel Poncedeleon, among others. Certainly, it’s a deep core of starting pitching options and one that seems unlikely to maintain wholly intact as pitching-hungry teams offer up MLB-ready bats to the Cardinals on the offseason trade market.

Reinserting Wainwright into that mix would only deepen the staff and further make trades easier to stomach for Girsch and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak, though the financials of a Wainwright return still need to be hammered out. It’s clear that Wainwright won’t command a salary along the lines of the $19.5MM annual rate that came with his previous five-year, $97.5MM deal, but the Cards would still likely need to make a reasonable guarantee, likely with the opportunity for additional earnings via incentives.

Speculatively speaking, even if the organization were to decide that there’s no room for Wainwright in the rotation, it’d be interesting to see if he’d be amenable to returning as a reliever. Wainwright, after all, cemented himself in Cardinals lore by closing out the NLCS and the World Series as an exuberant 25-year-old rookie back in 2006. The Cardinals’ closer role is currently up in the air, and a return to that job for Wainwright would represent something of a full-circle journey.

The Cardinals already have more than $110MM on the books for 2019, and that’s before arbitration raises for Wacha, Marcell Ozuna, Dominic Leone, and Chasen Shreve. It’d be a surprise, though, if St. Louis didn’t try to shed some payroll by moving some veterans whose performance makes it clear that they no longer fit with the roster. Dexter Fowler’s remaining $49.5MM over the next three seasons will be near impossible to move without absorbing a significant portion of that deal, but he no longer looks to be a par of the long-term outlook in the outfield. Relievers Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson are on less onerous contracts and could potentially be moved in salary-motivated trades, as well. Mozeliak, Girsch and the rest of the front office figure to be in for an active offseason, with the Wainwright decision presumably serving as the first of many.

Central Notes: Mauer, Perez, Bader, Cardinals, Kang, Pirates

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It isn’t yet clear if Joe Mauer will retire or return for the 2019 season, though if Sunday’s game was his last hurrah in the big leagues, it was a special one.  Mauer went 1-for-4 in the Twins’ 5-4 victory over the White Sox, though the most memorable moments included Mauer’s two daughters running onto the field to greet him at first base for the national anthem, as well as one final appearance behind the plate.  Making his first appearance at catcher since 2013, Mauer donned his old gear to catch the first pitch of the ninth inning before being substituted out of the game to a standing ovation from the Target Field fans.  “It’s just been an emotional roller coaster,” Mauer told reporters, including MLB,com’s Jarrid Denney.  “I’m not 100 percent sure [about retiring or not], and like I said, I want to make sure I have time just to take a deep breath and really be behind that decision. But I couldn’t have asked for a better last day of the 2018 season, and I’m looking forward to just taking a breath and spending some time with my girls, my family, and we’ll go from there.”

Here’s more from both the AL and NL Central divisions…

  • Salvador Perez will undergo surgery this week to repair ligament damage in his thumb, as per an announcement from the Royals (Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star was among those to report the news).  Perez said he has been playing through the injury for the last six weeks, and that while he’ll face some rehab time, it won’t keep him from being ready for Spring Training.  “Twelve weeks [off], then start to hit,” Perez said of his immediate timeline.  While Perez hit 27 homers this season, he contributed only a .235/.274/.439 overall batting line in 544 plate appearances, as his bad thumb and a Grade 2 MCL tear suffered in March likely kept him from operating at close to 100 percent all year.
  • Harrison Bader will be the Cardinals’ incumbent center fielder going into 2019, GM Michael Girsch told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch and other media today.  “It’s pretty obvious that he’s the best defensive center fielder we have.  He’s hit more than well enough to earn the first shot at it,” Girsch said.  Bader posted 3.6 fWAR in his first extended stretch of Major League action, hitting .264/.334/.422 with 12 homers and 15 steals over 427 PA, while also displaying outstanding glovework (+23.3 UZR/150, +11 Defensive Runs Saved) over 607 1/3 innings in center.
  • While Bader is in center and Marcell Ozuna has left field spoken for, right field is a less certain area for the Cardinals, despite several options.  The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required) thinks St. Louis could even target Bryce Harper to solidify the position, since the team has the funds to make a big splash in free agency.  That would be an eyebrow-raising signing to say the least, in no small part because the Cards have right field options available, though all have question marks.  Jose Martinez is a poor defender, Tyler O’Neill is unproven as a Major Leaguer despite a promising start, and Dexter Fowler endured an injury-shortened and mediocre 2018 season.  It would likely require trades of both Fowler and Martinez to fit Harper, which would be difficult given Fowler’s struggles and big contract.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters (including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel) that if Jung Ho Kang returns to the team next season, it will be as a third baseman only.  Forty-nine of Kang’s 187 Major League games have come at shortstop, though it doesn’t appear as though the Bucs have any interest in utilizing him even as a backup.  As to the question of Kang’s $5.5MM club option, the Pirates “have significant interest in seeing if there’s a middle ground” if the option isn’t exercised, Huntington said, though no contractual decision has yet been made.  Injuries and legal issues have kept Kang out of Major League Baseball for almost all of the last two seasons, so it isn’t surprising that the Bucs are seeing if they could bring Kang back at a lower price, given that his market as a free agent could be rather limited.
  • Since Kang isn’t being considered for the backup shortstop role if he does return, Jordy Mercer could be a fit to return as a utility infielder.  Huntington said the Pirates will “keep the door open” about possibly re-signing Mercer and Josh Harrison, though Mercer seems the better bet of the duo to return, as Mercer can fill the part-time role behind Kevin Newman at short.

Quick Hits: Victor Victor, Norris, Pena, Strop

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The Marlins are reportedly taking an interesting strategy in their attempts to court Cuban phenom Victor Victor Mesa, according to a tweet from Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro suggests that the organization is trying to sell Miami as “home” to the free agent. They’re also hoping that being a component of a rebuild amidst an improving minors system will be additional incentive in bringing the elder Mesa brother into the fold. As Frisaro notes, the Marlins also have one of the highest international bonus pools by which to pay him, second only to that of the Orioles (with whom the opportunity to lead a rebuild is also present).

More items from around the league…

  • Cardinals reliever Bud Norris left last night’s game with hamstring tightness, and it’s looking unlikely that he’ll pitch again during the regular season. Indeed, manager Mike Schildt indicated that to be the case yesterday, per Jennifer Langosch of MLB.com. “It seems to be a recurring issue,” Shildt lamented. “It would be surprising if he pitched again the next two days based on what he’s dealing with.” Norris served as the Cards’ closer for much of the season, accruing 28 saves to go along with a 3.59 ERA and 10.46 K/9. It’s uncertain whether he could be ready to pitch in time for a potential postseason berth, though with St. Louis on the brink of elimination as of today, that could possibly become irrelevant soon.
  • Maria Torres of the LA Times writes that the performance of right-hander Felix Pena this season has put him firmly in the conversation for the Angels’ 2019 rotation. While he’ll be denied the chance at one final start this year, he’ll head into spring training in March with his eyes on a permanent role as a starter. “We like what we’ve seen and we’re encouraged that he can build upon this season and take it into 2019,” said general manager Billy Eppler. Pena capitalized on the opportunity presented to him by an avalanche of Angels pitching injuries this season, putting up a 4.18 ERA and 4.04 FIP across 17 starts for Los Angeles, racking up 85 strikeouts in 92 2/3 innings along the way. The 28-year-old was acquired from the Cubs last October after being designated for assignment.
  • Cubs righty Pedro Strop is progressing in his return from a hamstring injury, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports. He’s tested the hamstring twice off the mound recently, and while a return during the regular season has been ruled out, the Cubs will certainly be waiting with bated breath to see if one of their best relievers will be available for the NLDS. The next test for Strop will be his ability to cover first base. “I’ve been able to throw,” he said. “My arm is in shape so I don’t have to go through that. It’s going to make the process quicker. Good thing I’m able to throw…I feel it a little bit but nothing major.”

NL Notes: Kang, Kennedy, Giants, Wainwright

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The Pirates will be faced with a decision on Jung Ho Kang’s 2019 option this offseason, but GM Neal Huntington tells Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic that Kang’s performance in this weekend series won’t have an impact on the outcome (subscription required). “Truth be told, there’s not going to be a whole lot of value in the evaluation process of a one-game or a one-plus-game look,” said Huntington. Biertempfel notes, though, that the late promotion could earn a bit of good will with Kang’s camp in the event that the team elects to buy out his $5.5MM option and try to bring him back into the fold for a few million less than that. There’s been no indication one way or another as to how the Pirates plan on proceeding, though the very fact that he was brought up to the Majors at all indicates that they’re not totally closed off to the possibility of continuing the relationship in spite of Kang’s legal troubles over the past few seasons.

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Padres right-hander Brett Kennedy underwent knee surgery that will sideline him for the first six weeks of the offseason, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. However, Kennedy is still expected to be able to have a largely normal offseason program, and the operation isn’t expected to impact his availability for the 2019 campaign. Kennedy, 24, didn’t impress in six starts with the Friars this season, working to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings. However, the 2015 11th-rounder fired off 89 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate in an extremely hitter-friendly setting with the Padres’ El Paso affiliate in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. He posted solid numbers at Double-A in 2017 and at Class-A Advanced in 2016, and with multiple minor league options remaining beyond 2018, he’ll have ample opportunity to cement himself as part of the San Diego pitching staff in come capacity over the next few seasons.
  • The Giants’ search for a new general manager and/or president of baseball operations isn’t expected to be a quick one, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. The process could take several weeks as Giants leadership interviews a wide range of candidates with varying backgrounds. Notably, Schulman adds that the Giants aren’t set on hiring any one specific type of executive (e.g. analytically inclined, traditional scouting background, etc.) and seem to be embarking on this process with an open-minded approach.
  • With the Cardinals on the brink of elimination, Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes the uncertain future of Adam Wainwright, who may have made his final start yesterday for the only MLB team he’s ever known. Wainwright’s a free agent at season’s end, and while he spent most of the season sidelined by elbow soreness, he’s rebounded in September to pitch admirably for St. Louis. His 4.84 ERA across his past four starts may not look pretty, but his 3.20 FIP and stunning 6.25 K/BB ratio points to a much more effective pitcher than the version of Wainwright the world had seen across the rest of the past three seasons. Teammate Yadier Molina, for what it’s worth, doesn’t seem to think it’s the last time the two will be batterymates, saying he’s “confident” about that. “It may have been,” Wainwright himself said. “It doesn’t feel like it is. For whatever reason. I haven’t had those emotions. The way I’m feeling now, if that is my last start here it would be kind of hard to walk away knowing the way I’m feeling right now.”

Past, Present & Future: National League Closer Turnover

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While a new breed of pitcher, one who can rack up holds, strikeouts and throw multiple innings, is beginning to emerge as an integral role on a baseball roster, becoming the “closer” is still the ultimate goal for a Major League relief pitcher. The closer gets the entrance music. The closer gets the congratulatory hug from the catcher after the third out, followed by handshakes from every teammate. Closers get paid! Most importantly, being the closer usually means that your manager trusts you above all other pitchers in that bullpen.

Give up a lead in the seventh or eighth inning and your team still has a chance to pick you up. The later in the game a players fails, the better chance that mistake will stand out to anyone watching. It will be in the headlines. Fantasy Baseball owners will want to know who is “next in line.”  And for a team that has fought tooth and nail to get to the ninth inning with a lead, it can be debilitating if the last pitcher standing can’t close things out. Managers don’t have much patience for blown saves, either. There is a lot of pressure and a lot of turnover, which is why most teams won’t have the same closer in September as they did on Opening Day.

Here’s a look back at each National League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (We ran through the American League earlier this week.)

[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Boxberger
September 2018: Committee — Yoshihisa Hirano, Archie Bradley, Boxberger

Future Outlook: The Diamondbacks opted to keep their best reliever, Bradley, in a setup role while plugging offseason acquisition Boxberger into the closer’s role. For the majority of the season, things went according to plan. That duo, along with Hirano and lefties Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland, were a strength on a team that led the NL West on September 1. But as the bullpen has fallen apart over the past few weeks, the team has quickly descended in the standings and fallen out of the playoff hunt.

As a result, the D-backs will head into the offseason with their closer situation somewhat up in the air. Overall, Boxberger, Bradley and Hirano have each been mostly effective and can still be counted on as valuable late-inning relievers. The D-backs will need to decide if they want add a better ninth inning option, though with numerous holes to fill as key players like A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin depart via free agency, the team could decide it has bigger needs.

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Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Arodys Vizcaino
September 2018: Arodys Vizcaino

Future Outlook: Vizcaino was entrenched as the Braves’ closer to start the season, and he’s seemingly back in as the Braves prepare for their first playoff series since 2013. A.J. Minter proved to be a capable fill-in during both of Vizcaino’s disabled list stints. For a time, he even appeared to be more of a co-closer with a healthy Vizcaino on the roster, presenting a very formidable righty-lefty combination in the late innings.

With a solid group of relievers, including Minter, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle and Dan Winkler, all under contract for next season and the chance that one or two of their enticing young prospects could help out of the ’pen, the Braves appear to be in good shape in 2019. They could be tempted, however, to bring back free agent Craig Kimbrel, who had 186 saves, four All-Star appearances and won the NL Rookie of the Year award during a five-year stint with the team from 2010-2014.

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Chicago Cubs | Cubs Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brandon Morrow
September 2018: Committee — Jesse Chavez, Jorge De La Rosa, Steve Cishek, etc.

Future Outlook: The offseason signing of Morrow came with significant risk due to his long history of injuries and a heavy postseason workload (14 appearances) with the Dodgers in 2017. And while the Cubs did their best not to overuse him—he made back-to-back appearances just six times and pitched on three consecutive days only once—his season ended in mid-July due to a bone bruise in his elbow and biceps inflammation.

Pedro Strop was up to the task as the fill-in closer—he had a 1.77 ERA and 11 saves in 13 chances after Morrow went on the disabled list—but a strained hamstring ended his regular season on September 13. He could return for the playoffs. In the meantime, the Cubs have been mixing and matching in the late innings, at times relying on journeymen like Chavez and De La Rosa as they try to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Morrow and Strop will be back in the picture in 2018—Strop’s $6.25MM club option will almost certainly be exercised—as will setup men Carl Edwards Jr. and Cishek. Finding a left-hander who can close, if necessary, might be on the team’s agenda. Zach Britton could be a target if that’s the case.

—

Cincinnati Reds | Reds Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Raisel Iglesias
September 2018: Raisel Iglesias

Future Outlook: Iglesias has had three consecutive good seasons out of the bullpen with 63 saves in 71 opportunities. The Reds, however, have been in last place with less than 70 wins in each of those years, making Iglesias’ contributions less significant.

If the Reds are confident that they can be a much better team in 2019, it makes perfect sense to hold on to the 28-year-old right-hander—he’s under team control through 2021—and make him available via trade only if they fall out of contention during the season. Since he’s been able to stay healthy as a relief pitcher—not to mention that there is no clear “next in line” closer in the organization—they’re be better off leaving things as they are rather than experimenting with a move back to the rotation. The ninth inning should belong to Iglesias again come Opening Day 2019.

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Colorado Rockies | Rockies Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Wade Davis
September 2018: Wade Davis

Future Outlook: Despite a few rough patches along the way, the 33-year-old Davis has 42 saves for the first-place Rockies and has been on a roll when it counts the most. In his last 17 appearances, he’s 10-for-10 in save chances with 23 strikeouts in 17 innings and only one earned run allowed.

Davis is still guaranteed $36MM over the next two seasons—he’ll also get another $14MM in 2021 if he finishes 30 games in 2020—so his mid-season struggles and continued decrease in fastball velocity (95.9 MPH in ’15; 94.9 MPH in ’16, 94.3 MPH in ’17; 93.8 MPH in ’18) are a concern. He has done enough to hold on to the closing job for 2019, but it would be a good idea to have a backup plan in place. Adam Ottavino, the team’s most valuable reliever with a 2.47 ERA, six saves and 33 holds, will be a free agent after the season. Re-signing him or replacing him with a top free agent will be difficult considering that Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, both disappointments thus far, signed $27MM contracts last offseason. They could rely heavily on Seunghwan Oh, who recently had his $2.5MM option vest for 2019 and has been very good since being acquired from Toronto in July.

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Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Kenley Jansen
September 2018: Kenley Jansen

Future Outlook: Jansen allowed six earned runs with two blown saves and a loss in his first seven appearances of 2018. He missed 13 days in August due to an irregular heart beat that will likely require offseason surgery. Upon his return, he allowed seven earned runs with two losses and a blown save over four appearances. And yet, the 30-year-old right-hander has 37 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA for a Dodgers team that is fighting for a playoff spot as we head into the last weekend of the regular season.

Jansen’s occasional struggles on the mound and health concerns only magnified the team’s inability to replace Morrow, who was their primary setup man and bullpen workhorse last post-season. Setup relievers seem likely to be an area of focus this winter, and the Dodgers will be keeping their fingers crossed that Jansen comes back strong in what will be year three of a five-year, $80MM contract.

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Miami Marlins | Marlins Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Ziegler
September 2018: Co-Closers — Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley

Future Outlook: It’s not clear why the rebuilding Marlins stuck with the veteran Ziegler through a rocky two-month stint as the closer to begin the season. Even though he had just one blown save in 10 chances when he was removed from the role, he had an ERA near 8.00 and Kyle Barraclough, next in line, had a 1.48 ERA. If they had any reluctance to turn it over to Barraclough, he showed why that might’ve been the case by losing the job two months later.

After locking down all seven save chances while allowing just one hit over 12 scoreless innings in June, Barraclough fell apart in July. Over his next 13 appearances, he blew four saves and allowed 14 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings before the Marlins decided on a closer-by-committee approach in early August. Steckenrider and Conley lead the team with four and two saves, respectively, since Barraclough was removed from the closer’s role. Both pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 in the second half, however, so it’s very likely that the team will look to find a more reliable option during the offseason.

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Milwaukee Brewers | Brewers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Corey Knebel
September 2018: Committee — Knebel, Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader

Future Outlook: Knebel suffered a hamstring injury during his third appearance of the season, forcing him to the disabled list for a month. By the time he returned, Hader and Jeffress had each established that they were more than capable of picking up the slack if Knebel could not return to his 2017 form. And this did prove to be the case. The 26-year-old Knebel, sharing the closer’s role with Hader and Jeffress, had a 5.08 ERA through August 31st. September has been a different story, however, as Knebel has allowed just four hits and three walks over 13 1/3 scoreless innings with 26 strikeouts. Regardless of how things go in the playoffs, the Brewers appear set with the same trio of late-inning relievers heading into 2019.

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New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Jeurys Familia
September 2018: Committee — Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Anthony Swarzak

Future Outlook: The return of Familia, who missed time in 2017 due to a 15-game suspension and a three-and-a-half month-stint on the disabled list, was supposed to help propel the Mets back into playoff contention. While things have not gone swimmingly for the Mets, Familia’s comeback has actually gone quite well. He posted a 2.88 ERA with 17 saves for the Mets, was traded to Oakland in July and should be headed for a decent payday in free agency this offseason.

The Mets, coincidentally, will likely be in the market for a closer, although it’s not known whether they or Familia would be open to a reunion. Gsellman has held his own as the primary closer, saving eight of nine games since Familia’s departure, but probably isn’t the long-term answer. Lugo has been terrific out of the ’pen, although his best role could be as a multi-inning setup man for whoever the team’s next closer will be.

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Philadelphia Phillies | Phillies Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Hector Neris
September 2018: Committee – Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, etc.

Future Outlook: Neris was 8-for-10 in save chances with three losses and an ERA over 5.00 in mid-May when manager Gabe Kapler declared that he would no longer have a set closer. It didn’t take long for rookie Seranthony Dominguez to emerge as the most significant part of the group, pitching 14 2/3 scoreless innings with only two hits allowed, no walks and 16 strikeouts to begin his MLB career. He would falter as the season progressed, though, leaving Kapler to rely more on veterans Hunter and Pat Neshek down the stretch.

Considering that Dominguez was a starting pitching prospect with no experience in the upper minors prior to the 2018 season, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he can take a big leap forward and solidify the closer’s job for a full season. But with expectations for the Phillies likely to be in the high-to-extremely-high range, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Phillies pursue a more established free agent to close out games.

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Pittsburgh Pirates | Pirates Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Felipe Vazquez
September 2018: Felipe Vazquez

Future Outlook: Vazquez signed a $22MM contract extension in the offseason and changed his name in April. By the end of May, Vazquez had an ERA near 5.00 and four blown saves. There wasn’t the normal negative buzz that surrounds most closers after blowing a save or two, though. He had only allowed an earned run in four of 24 appearances and the Pirates were playing much better than expected. He was also dealing with forearm discomfort and, of course, was one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball in 2017. He earned that long leash. Over his last 44 appearances, the 27-year-old lefty has a 1.77 ERA and 26 saves in 27 chances. Yep– still one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.

With three games to go, Vazquez is two appearances shy of reaching at least 70 games for the third consecutive season. He pitched both ends of a double-header twice in 2018 and pitched three consecutive days on three occasions, including two days after experiencing the forearm pain. The acquisition of Keone Kela and the emergence of Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez as reliable setup men should help ease Vazquez’s workload in 2019.

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San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart 

Opening Day 2018: Brad Hand
September 2018: Kirby Yates

Future Outlook: While Hand’s offseason contract extension removed any sense of urgency that the Padres had to trade him, it also made him a much more valuable trade chip. After saving 24 games and posting a 3.05 ERA with 13.2 K/9 in 41 appearances, Hand was traded to the Indians for catcher Francisco Mejia, one of the top prospects in baseball. Yates stepped into the closer’s role, although there was a decent chance that it would be a short stint with 12 days to go until the non-waiver trade deadline and several contending teams potentially interested in acquiring him. The 31-year-old stayed put, though, giving him an extended opportunity to prove himself as an MLB closer. He’s passed the test with flying colors, saving 10 games in 11 chances—he has 12 saves overall—while continuing to strike out more than 12 batters per nine innings.

The Padres, who currently have 95 losses, aren’t likely to build a legitimate playoff contender during the offseason. However, they’re far enough into their rebuild that they’ll want to go into 2019 with a team that can at least be .500. In that case, holding on to Yates would be smart, although general manager A.J. Preller will surely be willing to pull the trigger on a deal if a team meets his asking price.

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San Francisco Giants | Giants Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Hunter Strickland
September 2018: Will Smith

Future Outlook: With Mark Melancon on the disabled list to begin the season, the Giants turned to Strickland as their closer. For the most part, he did a fine job, but his days as a closer swiftly came to an end, at least for the near future, on June 18th. Strickland entered the game with a two-run lead over the Marlins, an ERA just over 2.00 and 13 saves in 16 chances. After allowing three earned runs in the eventual 5-4 loss, he punched a door in frustration and fractured his hand. Upon returning in mid-August, Smith had 10 saves and a strong grasp on the closer’s gig.

Smith will likely be the front-runner to keep the job in ’19 with Melancon also firmly in the mix given his experience and his sizable contract (four years, $62MM). He’s not quite back to his pre-injury form, but Melancon has a 3.08 ERA in 40 appearances.

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St. Louis Cardinals | Cardinals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Committee — Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons, Bud Norris
September 2018: Carlos Martinez

Future Outlook: The committee was supposed to be temporary while Greg Holland, who signed a one-year contract in late March, worked his way back into shape with a Minor League stint. Holland, though, was brought to the Majors before he was ready and never looked right with the Cardinals. He walked four in his St. Louis debut and never quite recovered. Norris, as he did in 2017 with the Angels, quickly separated himself from the other closer options and proved to be a steady force in the ninth inning with 28 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA through August. The 33-year-old ran out of gas, though, forcing the team to use a temporary committee in early September. Martinez, who returned from a disabled list stint to pitch out of the bullpen in late August, has emerged as the team’s primary closer as they fight for a Wild Card spot.

It’s highly unlikely that Martinez, the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter, will remain in the bullpen beyond this season. Barring any injury concerns, he’s just too good as a starting pitcher. Rookie Jordan Hicks, who has dazzled with his 100+ MPH sinking fastball, is a good bet to be the team’s closer at some point. It’s just not certain that the Cardinals will trust him enough at the beginning of the 2019 campaign, which could put them in the market for a stop-gap closer this offseason.

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Washington Nationals | Nationals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Sean Doolittle
September 2018: Sean Doolittle

Future Outlook: Doolittle was the Nationals’ closer on Opening Day, an NL All-Star selection in July, and he’s the Nationals’ closer as we enter the last weekend of the regular season. You’d figure things went pretty well for the Nats in 2018. But you’d be wrong.

A stress reaction in Doolittle’s foot forced him out of the All-Star game and out of action for a majority of the second half. When he returned in September, the Nats were out of the playoff chase. Five different relievers, including Kelvin Herrera, picked up saves while Doolittle was out. Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson and Shawn Kelley were all traded, and Herrera suffered a season-ending foot injury in late August.

Doolittle will be back in 2019—his $6MM club option will surely be exercised—and should jump right back into the ninth-inning role unless the Nats make a bold acquisition for another closer. In all likelihood, they’ll bring in another veteran setup man to help out a group that includes Koda Glover and Justin Miller. Greg Holland is one possibility. He has been a pleasant surprise since signing with the team in early August (0.89 ERA in 23 appearances) .

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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS
Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Trevor Rosenthal
Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)

NL Notes: Giants, Fowler, Pirates

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The Giants are exploring the addition of “a high-profile baseball operations executive” to their front office, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (subscription required).  The idea would be that this new hire would allow Brian Sabean to step back from some of the team’s day-to-day operations — Sabean’s resumption of this role last offseason was “regarded as only a temporary adjustment,” and Sabean would seemingly step back into his previous responsibilities as the team’s president of baseball operations.  Olney’s report raises new questions about current Giants GM Bobby Evans, as there has already been speculation about his status for 2019, though obviously San Francisco could add a new voice to the front office mix without a major shakeup of the team’s baseball ops ladder.

Some more from around the NL…

  • Dexter Fowler’s season was ended after he suffered a fractured foot on August 3, though it had already been a trying year for the Cardinals outfielder, as he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Fowler hit a career-worst .180/.278/.298 over 334 PA, and while he said physical injuries weren’t to blame for his struggles, “I think it was more mental health” that led to the down year.  Fowler had to deal with public comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about his level of effort (Mozeliak apologized for citing only Fowler as part of a larger issue within the team) and a seeming rift with former St. Louis manager Mike Matheny.  The Cards have thoroughly turned their season around since Mike Shildt took over as manager, and Fowler has been excited about his team’s progress and his future in St. Louis.  “Shoot, I’m watching what’s happened and I’m excited for 2019….I think that’s going to be awesome. I look forward to being a part of that,” Fowler said.
  • Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer were both removed from today’s game in the middle of an inning, so the two veteran Pirates infielders could receive a round of applause from the home crowd in what is likely to be their final game at PNC Park in the black-and-gold.  Mercer is a free agent, and Pittsburgh is expected to decline its $10.5MM club option on Harrison for 2019, leaving room for Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman expected to take over at second base and shortstop next year.  Harrison told reporters (including Jerry Dipaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that he hasn’t yet considered leaving the Pirates, while Mercer said is open to re-signing with the team.
  • The Pirates have suffered several late-season injuries that could leave those players (Gregory Polanco, Chad Kuhl, Edgar Santana, Joe Musgrove) sidelined for at least the first part of the 2019 season, which could impact the team’s offseason plans, Rob Biertempfel writes in a subscription-only piece for The Athletic.  The statuses of Musgrove and Santana are still to be exactly determined, while the Bucs already know Kuhl will be out until 2020 due to Tommy John surgery and Polanco will be out until mid-April at the earliest following shoulder surgery.

Quick Hits: Wong, Nola, Phillips, Sano

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Per a tweet from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong received some bad news recently. An MRI showed damage in Wong’s knee that might need to be addressed in the offseason, though there’s no official word on that either way. The general belief from the Cardinals’ camp, Wong included, is that the aforementioned knee damage may be contributing to the recurring soreness in his hamstring. There’s also some concern that the severity of the damage could lead to a strain. Despite this issue, Wong’s still put up the most productive season of his career thus far, in part due to outstanding defensive marks that include 21 Defensive Runs Saved and a 19.8 UZR/150.

Other news and rumors from around the league…

  • Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets that the Phillies were “deep in meetings” this morning to plot the club’s final eight contests of the season. Gelb notes that Aaron Nola will pass 200 innings today (and in fact, has, as of me writing this sentence), which could spell the end of the season for the club’s emergent ace. Some in the organization had suggested earlier in the season that the Phillies were planning to limit Nola to 185 innings on the season, but contender status necessitated them to increase that total. Now, though, Philadelphia is no longer playing with October in mind, which may help to explain why Gelb ponders aloud whether today could be Nola’s last start of 2018.
  • Speaking of innings caps, Orioles rookie right-hander Evan Phillips won’t pitch again this season, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. He’s reached an innings limit after hurling a career-high 63 relief frames on the season between the Orioles, Braves and the Triple-A affiliates of the two clubs. Phillips, 24, has allowed 11 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in Baltimore; he became part of the Orioles organization by way of the deadline deal that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves.
  • A magnetic resonance imaging exam didn’t turn up any new leads as to the cause of Miguel Sano’s knee discomfort, Mike Berardino writes as part of a piece for the Pioneer Press. Twins manager Paul Molitor provided some words on the subject, which must be frustrating for club and fan base alike. “We tried to eliminate things that might be sources or causes of the aggravation that he continues to feel,” said Molitor. “A little bit of a puzzle that we haven’t been able to solve yet in terms of the discomfort he continues to experience. We’re hoping with treatment and maybe a little bit more rest, we’ll be in a better place come Tuesday.” Sano has only appeared in the lineup once since September 4th, which comes as another black mark on a miserable follow-up to the three strong campaigns with which he began his career.
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