- Signing Paul Goldschmidt to an extension could be a bit more complicated for the Cardinals than many would think, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic explores in his latest column (subscription required). Goldschmidt has already signed what turned out to be one exceptionally team-friendly extension, and as the former union representative for the D-backs, he takes particular umbrage with team owners’ increasing reluctance toward spending in free agency. Saxon wonders whether Goldschmidt will feel obligated to push for a maximum-value contract given his views, though he emphasizes that Goldschmidt himself has declined to discuss his feelings about a new contract. And, as Saxon further writes, there are no indications that talks between the Cardinals and Goldschmidt’s agent, Casey Close, have begun.
Cardinals Rumors
Yadier Molina, Kris Bryant Exchange Barbs
- Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cardinals and Cubs seem to be primed for a feud in the coming campaign. Both teams are dead set on getting back to the top of the division. And now things are getting personal. As Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch deftly explains, Chicago star Kris Bryant’s casual and mostly harmless jab at the city of St. Louis (“boring”) ignited a “scorched-earth response” from stalwart St. Louis backstop Yadier Molina. It might seem like much ado about nothing; it may turn out to be just that. But Molina promises “it will carry” into the season. And as Frederickson explains, the matter touches at something deeper in the psyches of Molina, the Cards, and even the city they play in.
DeWitt: Cardinals Interested In Long-Term Deal With Paul Goldschmidt
Though the Cardinals may not have many further additions to make to their 2019 roster, that doesn’t mean the club’s offeason business is complete. In comments today, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch was among those to report, owner Bill DeWitt Jr. made clear that the organization has serious interest in keeping newly acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt beyond the coming campaign.
It’s certainly not a surprise to hear that the Cards have interest in a long-term arrangement, though it certainly could have been the case that the team would instead have taken more of a wait-and-see position. Foreseeable though it may have been, it is notable that the Cards are seemingly embarking upon an extension effort (or at least, are laying the groundwork for one) at this early juncture.
Negotiations, it seems, likely haven’t begun. But DeWitt and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made clear that they fully intend to pursue contract talks, perhaps as soon as this spring.
“We’d love to have him here longer than one year,” said DeWitt, “and we’ll just see how that plays out.” He went on to hint at the Cardinals’ thinking on the initial decision to acquire Goldschmidt in a deal that cost young, controllable, MLB-level talent: “I think worst case is we get a top Draft choice, but that’s not our goal when we trade for a player like Paul Goldschmidt.”
Though Mozeliak wasn’t quite as forthcoming, he did cite the same idea of a one-year “gamble” that DeWitt did. Clearly, the organization pulled the trigger on the trade in part due to the potential for gaining an exclusive bargaining window and recruitment opportunity.
Of course, the timing of all this is less than clear. Mozeliak did say that the first step would be to allow Goldschmidt to settle in with the club in Spring Training. Then? “Ultimately, we’ll sort of, as we round the first turn, get a better idea of what the second turn looks like,” said Mozeliak. Whether that will mean late-spring talks, negotiations during the season, and/or an effort to bring him back via free agency is at this point anyone’s guess.
It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things progress. With just one year to go until free agency, Goldschmidt is tantalizingly close to picking his own team and likely commanding a massive new deal. He’s also already 31 years of age and plays a position that teams have increasingly hesitated to invest in. Of course, Goldschmidt is hardly a common first baseman, either.
Cardinals Notes: Additional Moves, Martinez, Wainwright
There may not be another significant move on the horizon for the Cardinals this offseason, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested over the weekend (link via Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com). “We don’t feel like there’s that one player out there that if we could target we’d go after if we’re patient enough,” Mozeliak said. The team surely wouldn’t broadcast its intentions even if one specific target of interest remained on the market, but it’s nonetheless notable to hear the Cards’ top decision-maker plainly state that he doesn’t “see anything that makes us want to change direction” when looking at the market of available talent. As Langosch notes, the Cards can still add some veterans on minor league contracts in hopes that someone forces his way onto the active roster this spring, but Mozeliak spoke like an exec who has completed most of his offseason shopping.
More from St. Louis…
- If the Cardinals do make a move, writes Mark Saxon of The Athletic (subscription required), they’d likely be zeroed in on versatile position players and bullpen help. “Theorizing that relievers and guys who play multiple positions are what we’re looking at is probably not the worst theory in the world,” said general manager Mike Girsch late last week. If anything, though, it seems that the Cardinals will be more opportunistic rather than setting their sights on one specific player to pursue him at all costs. Saxon does run through some remaining free agents who could hold interest, noting that Oliver Perez could make some sense “if the Cardinals don’t want to pay the asking price in trade talks with the San Francisco Giants for Will Smith.”
- Girsch also spoke to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Ben Frederickson about the decision to hang onto Jose Martinez rather than trade him. “Other teams looked at it as a guy who was not a fit for us, and that maybe they could get him on the cheap,” said Girsch of the team’s exploration of the market for Martinez. The Cardinals, it seems, had little interest in weakening their 2019 roster by moving Martinez solely for prospects, knowing his bat holds significant value even in a more limited role. Martinez hit .305/.364/.457 in a career-high 590 plate appearances last year and is a career .309/.372/.478 hitter in 915 MLB plate appearances. Frederickson also offers up some quotes from skipper Mike Shildt about the manner in whcih Martinez will be used in 2019, with Shildt believing he’ll be more involved than a typical bench bat and specifically touting Martinez’s proficiency against left-handed pitching (.332/.408/.560). However, it’s clear that heading into the season, Dexter Fowler will be given a chance to reestablish himself as a viable option in right field.
- Righty Adam Wainwright spoke at this weekend’s Winter Warm-Up event about his decision to return for the 2019 season (link via Langosch). The three-time All-Star was candid in discussing the pain he’s pitched through in recent seasons and also in talking about the unexpected rebound his arm felt late in the season. “I stopped feeling like my arm was going to break every time I threw the ball,” said Wainwright, who also touched on the possibility of pitching in relief if he can’t secure a rotation spot in Spring Training. However, Langosch notes that the Cardinals’ plan is to give the 37-year-old a real chance to do so. If Wainwright is indeed on a “whole different level health-wise” than he’s been in recent years, as he says, then perhaps it’d be unwise to bet against him. Wainwright has a combined 4.77 ERA in 362 1/3 innings across the past three seasons but was, of course, one of the game’s premier arms for quite some time before that; he returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 and tossed 695 innings of 2.99 ERA ball from 2012-15.
Cardinals, Miles Mikolas Interested in Extension
Right-hander Miles Mikolas is scheduled for free agency after the 2019 season, though both he and the Cardinals have interest in negotiating a contract extension. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team has already been in touch with Mikolas’ agent “about what the framework would look like for an extension,” while Mikolas told Goold and other reporters that he would be open to a longer-term stint in St. Louis.
“It’s something that the Cardinals and my agency have to work out – if the numbers work out and everything turns out to be it’s absolutely something that could happen,” Mikolas said.
Talks may not begin in earnest until the Cards open their Spring Training camp, which conveniently takes place in Mikolas’ hometown of Jupiter, Florida. While most players prefer to have contract negotiations wrapped up before Opening Day in order to avoid distractions, Mikolas doesn’t mind if talks stretch into the season. This could give the Cardinals some time to address other extension candidates, though GM Michael Girsch recently indicated that the team may take something of a wait-and-see attitude towards Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha, and Paul Goldschmidt — the latter because he has yet to play a game in a Cardinals uniform, and Ozuna and Wacha because of some injury concerns in 2018.
Mikolas signed a two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Cardinals last winter in the wake of a dominant three-year run in Japan with the Yomiuri Giants, following an undistinguished 91 1/3 innings with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14. Mikolas’ second stint in the big leagues was, needless to say, a vast improvement over his first — the righty posted a 2.83 ERA, 5.03 K/BB rate, and 49.3% grounder rate for St. Louis, while his 200 2/3 innings pitched ranked tenth among all MLB starters.
ERA predictors (3.28 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) weren’t quite as bullish on Mikolas’ performance, and he didn’t miss many bats, with only a 6.55 K/9 rate. Still, Mikolas exhibited excellent control (a league-low 1.3 BB/9) and limited his hard contact, with a .271 wOBA and an only-slightly higher .283 xWOBA. Mikolas turns 31 in August, though his arm hasn’t faced too much of a workload over 10 pro seasons, after Mikolas spent his first five seasons as a reliever. Indeed, Mikolas has looked quite durable over the last two years, with just 200+ inning performance for the Cardinals and a 188-inning performance for the Yomiuri Giants in 2017.
That first Mikolas contract has already proven to be a bargain for the Cardinals, yet Mikolas has also benefited since he has quickly lined himself up for an even larger payday, whether as a free agent next winter or in an extension. Mikolas’ contract came without any allowance for his lack of Major League service time, so the Cardinals don’t retain any arbitration control over Mikolas even though he’ll only have slightly more than three years of MLB service time by the end of the 2019 season.
The Cards haven’t been shy about locking up key players during John Mozeliak’s reign atop the baseball operations department, and Goold estimates that a Mikolas extension could fall somewhere between Kyle Lohse’s extension in 2008 (four years, $41MM) and the five-year, $80MM free agent pact Mike Leake signed with St. Louis in the 2015-16 offseason. The Cardinals face losing Wacha in free agency and Adam Wainwright is year-to-year at this point, and while the team has a number of intriguing young arms in the fold, there’s certainly value in keeping a durable veteran like Mikolas amidst these more unproven rotation options.
Mikolas’ unique career history makes him something of difficult player to find a comp for, extension-wise. Mikolas might also feel a desire to lock in another big salary while his value is at its highest, rather than test what is becoming an increasingly hard-to-predict free agent market next winter. Even if Mikolas pitches well for the Cardinals this season, it would be interesting to see what teams would offer a 31-year-old who doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts, especially if the Cards were to issue Mikolas a qualifying offer in the fall.
NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Ozuna, Gregerson, Braves
The latest from the National League . . .
- Following Thursday’s departure of reliever Adam Ottavino to New York, the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders spoke with GM Jeff Bridich about the state of affairs in the team’s bullpen. On the heels of last offseason’s months-long reliever binge, which saw the club devote nearly a third of its payroll space to the most fickle asset in the game, Colorado apparently couldn’t save room for dessert. The club didn’t offer Ottavino a contract, preferring instead to take its chances with the current crop: “We need last year’s decisions to pitch better than they did in 2018,” said Bridich. “It’s not a lack of talent or a sudden inability to perform well. But they need to do a better job.” Bryan Shaw, Mike Dunn, and Jake McGee, though, did exhibit a sudden inability to perform well, as the trio combined for an ugly -0.7 fWAR in 118 combined IP. Wade Davis, too, was hardly himself in ’18, stranding just 66.9% of baserunners – down from an MLB-best 87.5% from 2014-17 – en route to his lowest career output. Scott Oberg, who began the year in AAA despite being arguably being the team’s most effective pre-spree reliever, again paced the returning bunch, limiting homers at an elite rate and continuing to maintain a stellar walk rate.
- President of baseball operations John Mozeliak provided injury updates on two key Cardinals during a Saturday chat with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was bothered all season by a nagging shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery, hasn’t yet begun throwing, and the club “isn’t sure” if he’s taken hacks in the cage, either. Ozuna has spurned treatment at the club’s spring facility in favor of offseason rehab in his native Dominican Republic, which Mozeliak deemed “not ideal,” but the 28-year-old outfielder, who heavily regressed toward his established mean last season after a breakout 2017, has expressed no reservations about his outlook for the upcoming season. Reliever Luke Gregerson, who was limited to just 12 1/3 IP last season after a shoulder injury of his own, “hasn’t felt right” in offseason workouts, and the club isn’t anticipating much from him in Spring Training. The soon-to-be 35-year-old Gregerson has endured one of the game’s heaviest reliever workloads since debuting in 2009, accruing a staggering 611 IP over that span, and appearing in an MLB-high 623 games from 2009-17.
- Per GM Alex Anthopoulos (h/t to the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Gabe Burns on Twitter), the Braves have made an outfield acquisition their top priority at current, and a move “may be resolved soon.” The club, of course, has been linked to still-available A.J. Pollock (who would cost the team a second-round draft pick if signed) and the recently-departed Nick Markakis to fill its vacancy at one outfield spot. With an overflow of starting pitching talent in the upper minors, the team seems better positioned than almost any to fill its hole via trade, but has thus far shown little interest in doing so. The Blue Jay version of Anthopoulos was an ardent mover of minor-league assets, shuffling talent in all directions when circumstances dictated, but has been far more cautious in his short time with Atlanta. With a still-unsettled rotation mix, perhaps this strategy is prudent, but distancing his club from the ravenous NL East pack will almost surely require a return to old ways for the young Braves GM.
Latest On Alex Reyes
- The Cardinals still don’t have a defined timeline regarding right-hander Alex Reyes’ return from shoulder surgery, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The prized 24-year-old prospect has been throwing recently, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Goold that Reyes is “long-tossing without limitation.” The expectation, per Mozeliak, is that Reyes will progress to mound work within the next two weeks. However, he’ll also have an “individualized build-up” in Spring Training, and his return to pitching in a game setting will be determined based on milestones within that personalized program. Reyes has long been touted as one of the game’s most promising arms, but he’s never reached 120 innings in any professional season. Given that he’s already had Tommy John surgery and now last year’s shoulder surgery, one can imagine the Cardinals will be particularly cautious in getting him back up to speed.
International Signings: Dodgers, Cardinals
Here are the latest reported deals on the international circuit …
- The Dodgers appear to have a deal in place with Taiwanese right-hander Lin Hui-Sheng, with Liberty Sports reporting the news and CPBL Stats tweeting it along. It’s believed the youngster will secure a $300K to $350K bonus if and when he passes a physical. You can read more about this reputedly live-armed 20-year-old here, courtesy of CPBL Stats. Injuries seem to have interfered with Lin’s development to this point, but it seems the Dodgers will have an interesting new arm to work with.
- Three Dominican teenagers are joining the Cardinals organization, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Righty Jesus Jaquez and outfielders Fernando Brazoban and Smith Vargas are said to be in agreement. There’s little public info on Jaquez and Vargas, but SB Nation’s A.E. Schafer dug up some materials on Brazoban. As he explains, and as an embedded video shows, the youngster appears to have some reasonably impressive physical tools to work with, though it’s certainly all but impossible to venture a reasonable guess as to his long-term outlook.
No Extension Talks Planned Between Cards, Goldschmidt, Ozuna, Wacha
- The Cardinals have yet to hold any extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, or Michael Wacha, GM Michael Girsch told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other media. All three players are scheduled for free agency next winter, and while negotiations could yet take place later in the offseason, Girsch said “We’ll see how this year goes” in regards to the trio. Since Goldschmidt has yet to play a game in a Cards uniform, it would be very surprising to see him ink an extension before getting a chance to test the open market. As for Ozuna and Wacha, it makes sense for the Cardinals to see how either player bounces back from an injury-marred 2018 before making a long-term commitment. Ozuna was solid but unspectacular last season, hitting .280/.325/.433 with 23 homers over 628 plate appearances while dealing with nagging shoulder issues. Wacha, meanwhile, didn’t pitch after June 20 due to an oblique injury.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
- The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
- The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
- The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
- The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.
Earlier Updates
