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Yadier Molina Discusses Future

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As things stand, Cardinals fixture Yadier Molina is slated to enter the 2020 season as a contractual lame duck. But that could change in the coming months, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

The 37-year-old Molina, who’ll again pair with Matt Wieters after the latter’s recent re-signing, says he has no intention of suiting up for another organization in the future. If the St. Louis org decides to move on before Molina has had his fill of playing, he says he’ll hang up his spikes.

But Molina doesn’t expect that time to come in the near future. He indicated to assembled reporters that he thinks he can keep catching for at least two more MLB campaigns. And Goold reports that both player and team expect to hold discussions in camp on a new contract that would keep Molina under contract for 2021 and include some sort of option for yet another campaign beyond that point.

There were some signs of decline in 2019. Molina turned in one of his weaker hitting performances, slashing just .270/.312/.399 in 452 plate appearances. Molina continues to shine at blocking errant pitches, but defensive grading systems paint him as a roughly average performer in the realms of framing, and controlling the running game.

That said, Molina has trended south with the bat before only to recover. Even in a down year, he was still an acceptable performer for a backstop. And it’s awfully difficult to say that the legendary veteran is merely an average presence behind the dish, even if that is true in terms of physical skills. Molina is not only considered a clubhouse leader with few peers, but plays a critical — and more or less unmeasurable — role in preparing and managing the Cards’ pitching staff.

It seems reasonably likely that the Cardinals will sort things out in a mutually satisfactory way with Molina, having done so already several times in the past. He has already spent 16 seasons in St. Louis and will mark his two thousandth game with the team early in the 2020 campaign. The sides have already hammered out three long-term deals. The most recent one was the most interesting, as it paid Molina a hefty $20MM annual salary over three seasons (ending in the upcoming season). It’ll be interesting to see where they settle on a new deal, if indeed one comes together.

Jordan Hicks Still On Track For Midseason Return

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  • Cardinals’ reliever Jordan Hicks is recovering as expected from his Tommy John surgery last June, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). He remains on target for a midseason return, Goold adds. Should Hicks return at full strength, he and his 102 MPH fastball figure to have a good shot at reclaiming the ninth inning for manager Mike Shildt. Carlos Martínez, who took the closer’s role in Hicks’ stead last year, is preparing for a return to the rotation this spring.

Cardinals Notes: Ozuna, Ravelo, Wieters, CarMar, Reyes

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Some tidbits from the Cardinals as the team holds its Winter Warm-Up fan event this weekend…

  • Marcell Ozuna continues to linger as a possibility to rejoin the team, though Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears from a source that the Cardinals will “have to up their offer for him to return.”  Ozuna recently hinted that the Cards and Rangers were his two top suitors, and reports from earlier this month suggested that the Reds were also still in the mix.  That said, there have also been rumblings that the Rangers’ top outfield (and first base) target might be Nicholas Castellanos rather than Ozuna, and it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will further add to its rather crowded outfield after signing Shogo Akiyama.  The Cardinals themselves have quite a few outfield options to juggle, of course, and between that depth and potentially the lack of a strong bidding war for Ozuna’s services, the club may not see a reason yet to offer him a larger contract.
  • Reports from last week indicated that Rangel Ravelo was receiving interest from a KBO League team, though Cardinals president John Mozeliak told Goold and other media members that a trade was apparently very close to fruition.  Trading Ravelo to South Korea would have lessened the outfield surplus, though St. Louis instead addressed that issue by dealing Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays as part of a swap that involved four players and two draft picks.  As Mozeliak put it, “that’s when I took the toothpaste and tried to jam it back in the tube” in terms of walking back the Ravelo trade with the unnamed KBO team.  Since Ravelo is still somewhat buried on the Cardinals’ long list of outfield candidates, one wonders if those trade talks could be revisited (assuming the Korean team is still interested) should the Cards make another addition, such as perhaps an Ozuna signing.
  • Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that he is “hopeful” that Matt Wieters will return as the St. Louis backup catcher.  As of last week, the Athletics were also known to have interest in Wieters’ services, though Mozeliak said that “I’m hoping we’ll get Wieters done, I really am.  Still need to dot i’s and cross the t’s on that.”  Wieters hit .214/.268/.435 with 11 home runs over 183 plate appearances for the Cards last season, with positive grades as a pitch-blocker from Baseball Prospectus even while ranking near the bottom of the league in framing.  The fact that Mozeliak directly mentioned Wieters perhaps hints at a deal being close, Rogers noted, as the executive rarely names specific targets.
  • “It feels great to be a starter again,” Carlos Martinez told reporters (including the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Rick Hummel) at the Winter Warm-Up event.  Martinez has pitched well as the Cardinals’ closer in each of the last two seasons, and the right-hander said he prefers to start, though he likes both starting and relieving — “Whatever situation they put me in, I’m going to help the team.”  Shoulder problems necessitated Martinez’s shift to the bullpen, though he is now eager to get back to the rotation after claiming “100 percent” health following a minor shoulder surgery and a PRP injection in October.  The St. Louis rotation already features Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, and newly-signed Kwang-Hyun Kim, though needless to say, Martinez won’t have any trouble regaining a slot if he returns to his 2015-17 form.
  • Alex Reyes is another Cardinals pitcher that sees himself eventually as a starter, though for now, the young righty is just happy to finally be healthy.  “Mentally, I think what helped the most is just not being around rehab, rehab, rehab. It’s been three years of strictly rehab for me…I thought it was huge for me to be able to be with my family,” Reyes told Rogers and other reporters.  Once considered one of the sport’s top prospects, Reyes has been limited to just seven MLB innings over the last three seasons due to Tommy John surgery, lat muscle surgery, a broken finger on his non-throwing hand, and a pec injury.  If Reyes can finally stay on the field, he will likely be pitching out of the Cards’ bullpen as the team gets him re-acclimated to a regular pitching schedule.

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

Cardinals Acquire Austin Dean

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The Marlins announced Tuesday that they’ve traded outfielder Austin Dean to the Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Diowill Burgos. Dean was designated for assignment in Miami last week. Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio reported Dean was on his way to St. Louis shortly before the deal was announced. The Cardinals’ 40-man roster is now up to a total of 39 players.

Dean, 26, will replenish some of the right-handed-hitting outfield depth the Cardinals lost last week when trading Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays. While Dean has yet to find much in the way of big league success, he’s a career .331/.398/.546 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons and has generally handled left-handed pitching well. He still has two minor league option years remaining as well, so the Cards can shuttle him between Memphis and St. Louis as they see fit in the short term.

Burgos won’t turn 19 until later this month. He’s played in the Dominican Summer League in each of the past two seasons and moved up to the Gulf Coast League late in 2019. Overall, the Dominican native is a .263/.366/.475 hitter with 17 home runs, 24 doubles, seven triples and 10 steals in 493 professional plate appearances. He’s still years from being anywhere near the big leagues, but he’ll add an intriguing option to the lower ranks of the Miami farm system moving forward.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

Latest On Cardinals, Nolan Arenado

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  • The Rockies and Cardinals have engaged in preliminary negotiations centering on Rox superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has been on St. Louis’ radar for years. They’ve held talks with Colorado “at least dating back” to December 2018, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. A few months later, the Rockies extended Arenado for seven years and $234MM on a deal that will kick in this season. That money, not to mention Arenado’s no-trade rights and his ability to opt out after 2021, could help prevent an acquisition from materializing for the Cardinals or anyone else. The Cards haven’t been willing to meet the Rockies’ asking price for Arenado in the past, per Goold, though it’s unclear what Colorado asked for in return. Now, as you’d expect, Goold notes that the Cardinals are unwilling to trade young ace Jack Flaherty and also seem unlikely to part with high-end outfield prospect Dylan Carlson.

Cardinals, Rockies Have Reportedly Engaged In Preliminary Arenado Talks

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The Cardinals and Rockies have recently engaged in “preliminary trade negotiations” regarding Nolan Arenado, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi characterizes the Redbirds as “a viable suitor” for the five-time All-Star.

Of course, a deal coming to fruition is far from certain. Indeed, just yesterday, we heard that a St. Louis acquisition of Arenado was unlikely. That the sides are talking could give Cardinals’ fans cause for hope, but it’s hardly proof anything will get across the finish line. Teams surely engage in preliminary negotiations on any number of scenarios without ultimately completing the deal all the time.

Just how far these talks between Colorado and St. Louis have yet progressed isn’t clear. The Cardinals are intent on adding an impact position player this offseason, Morosi notes, although a re-signing of free agent Marcell Ozuna could fill that void. Morosi adds that Dakota Hudson could be a central figure in Arenado talks, although that seems more speculative than a definitive report that Colorado is intent on acquiring the 25-year-old sinkerballer.

As Morosi notes, an Arenado deal would be difficult to pull off, whether for the Cardinals or another suitor. Arenado is due $234MM over the next seven years on the extension he signed last February. That’d be a huge commitment for any acquiring team, but it’s hardly unreasonable for a player of his caliber. Anthony Rendon signed for $245MM over the same term this offseason. While Rendon has been marginally better than Arenado over the past few seasons, the Rockies’ star is a year younger.

More difficult to navigate are Arenado’s full no-trade clause and post-2021 opt-out clause. Arenado has in the past been vocal about his desire to compete, and Morosi notes he admires the Cardinals’ franchise history and has a strong rapport with Paul Goldschmidt. It thus seems feasible he’d be willing to waive the no-trade clause, particularly if the Rockies pivot to a large-scale rebuild. It should be noted, however, Arenado himself has not addressed the no-trade clause publicly.

The opt-out clause poses a greater challenge. Suitors figure to be understandably reluctant to part with the kind of young talent Colorado would surely require for their franchise player if they fear he’ll depart after 2021. (Of course, if Arenado were to not exercise his opt-out in two years’ time, it’s probably an indicator he couldn’t beat the hefty $164MM he’s currently due from 2022-26 on the open market). Morosi reports that St. Louis could explore attempting to convince Arenado to waive his opt-out clause (particularly by guaranteeing him more money), but there’s hardly any indication he’d be willing to do so.

Arenado will surely remain one of the game’s most notable trade candidates unless a deal ultimately comes to fruition. Whether St. Louis or any other team can overcome the numerous hurdles to a deal is one of the offseason’s most fascinating storylines.

Castellanos A Better Fit Than Ozuna For Cards?

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There hasn’t been many rumblings linking Nicholas Castellanos to the Cardinals this offseason, though one rival executive suggests to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) that Castellanos would be a better answer to the Cards’ outfield needs than Marcell Ozuna.  We’ve addressed the Castellanos/Ozuna debate ourselves in a recent Free Agent Faceoff, though from the executive’s standpoint, Castellanos is preferable for St. Louis since he isn’t attached to any draft pick compensation.  If the Cards were to re-sign Ozuna, they’d miss out on the compensatory draft pick they are slated to receive if he signed elsewhere, since Ozuna rejected the qualifying offer.  Signing Castellanos, however, would both upgrade the St. Louis outfield and still leave the Cardinals in line for the extra pick.

On the flip side, the Cards’ apparent lack of interest in Castellanos may signal that they simply prefer Ozuna, who is both a comparable talent and is a more known quantity to the Cardinals’ staff and front office.  Recent reports suggest that the Cards, Reds, and Rangers are all still in the mix for Ozuna, while Texas also has some interest in Castellanos, but perhaps only as a first baseman.  Along with Josh Donaldson, Castellanos and Ozuna are the headliners of a rapidly-depleted free agent crop as we approach the middle of January, and it will be interesting to see which clubs (perhaps a known suitor or a mystery team) wind up with these big bats.

Cards Notes: Wieters, Arenado, Carpenter

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The Cardinals and Athletics were first linked to Matt Wieters during the Winter Meetings, and a month after those initial reports, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that St. Louis and Oakland continue to have interest in the veteran backstop.  Wieters served as the Cards’ backup catcher last season, hitting .214/.268/.435 with 11 home runs over 183 plate appearances and 67 games — perhaps more playing time than was expected, given that workhorse Yadier Molina was limited to 113 games due to thumb injuries.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes (Twitter link) that the Cardinals have an offer out to Wieters and are hopeful of a reunion, to the point that a locker has been kept open for Wieters.  The A’s would also be looking to use Wieters as a backup catcher behind promising youngster Sean Murphy, though Wieters could potentially have a larger role if Murphy were to struggle in his first full MLB season.

  • Nolan Arenado has been frequently mentioned as a trade possibility for the Cardinals, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch feels a potential deal with the Rockies “probably won’t” happen.  Roadblocks include Arenado’s contract, which is both expensive and contains an opt-out clause after the 2021 season.  While Arenado is a clear upgrade over virtually any other third baseman in the game and Matt Carpenter is coming off a rough 2019 campaign, Carpenter’s presence as the Cards’ in-house third base option further complicates matters since Carpenter is unlikely to carry much trade value.  In terms of moving him to another position, Paul Goldschmidt has first base covered, and Frederickson writes that “the team has thoroughly dismissed the notion of Carpenter spending time in the outfield again.”
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