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Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a middling 58-55 record as late as Aug. 8, yet a blistering stretch run saw St. Louis win the NL Central and end a three-year (lengthy by Cardinals standards) postseason drought.  The Cards also defeated the Braves in the NLDS before falling to the Nationals in the NLCS, and the one-sided nature of that NLCS sweep continued the somewhat inconsistent nature of the Cardinals’ season.  The focus will clearly be on upgrading the offense as the Cards look to take a step forward and get back to the World Series in 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $130MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $68MM through 2023
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B: $39MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF: $33MM through 2021
  • Carlos Martinez, SP/RP: $23.5MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $22.5MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
  • Yadier Molina, C: $20MM through 2020
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $14MM through 2020 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $12MM club/vesting option for 2021)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $11.25MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2021)
  • Brett Cecil, RP: $7MM through 2020
  • Jose Martinez, 1B/OF: $2MM through 2020

Other Obligations

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Four straight seasons without a playoff berth would’ve led to rumblings about changes within the St. Louis braintrust, though in the wake of the Cardinals’ solid finish, the organization gave contract extensions to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch, and manager Mike Schildt.

The front office now faces the challenge of upgrading a lineup that already has a lot of personnel in place.  One look at the “guaranteed contracts” section above indicates how much money the Cards have already invested in position players, but none of that group showed much at the plate in 2019.  Paul Goldschmidt led the pack with a modest 116 wRC+, which was the lowest of his nine-year career and perhaps a red flag given how the first baseman was just signed to a pricey five-year extension last spring.

Kolten Wong (108 wRC+), Dexter Fowler (103), Jose Martinez (101), Paul DeJong (100), Matt Carpenter (95), and Yadier Molina (87) all fell into the average-to-disappointing range in terms of offensive production.  This isn’t to say that there wasn’t significant value here — Wong and DeJong are arguably the best defensive middle infield combo in baseball, and Fowler’s season actually represented a solid bounce-back after a disastrous 2018 campaign.  But with this core group all likely to return in 2020, the Cardinals have only a few empty positions to add some extra pop to the lineup.

The infield is set with Goldschmidt at first base, Wong at second base, DeJong at short, and Carpenter penciled in at third base and looking to rebound from a career-worst year.  Carpenter is another player who signed an extension last spring, and while his track record is strong enough that St. Louis likely might have brought him back anyway under the terms of his original contract (an $18.5MM club option for 2020, which became guaranteed under his new extension), there also isn’t any guarantee that he’ll avoid further decline as he enters his age-34 season.

Carpenter’s struggles made Tommy Edman’s emergence all the more critical to the Cardinals’ success in 2019.  Edman hit .304/.350/.500 in 349 plate appearances as s rookie, getting increased playing time at third base down the stretch in addition to some time spent at second base and in right field.  Edman spent the bulk of his minor league career as a shortstop, making him a valuable multi-positional bench piece for the Cards heading into next season.  Ideally, the Cardinals hope to use Edman all over the diamond rather than require him to continually step in at third base, since a resurgent Carpenter would go a long way toward rebuilding the offense.

Fowler can play center field in a pinch but is best suited to right field at this stage of his career, thus leaving Harrison Bader as the Cards’ best in-house option up the middle.  Bader’s center field glovework is so outstanding that St. Louis could probably live with him as just a defense-first regular, if the rest of the lineup could better pick up the offensive slack.  The Cardinals would be overjoyed if Bader replicated his 2018 numbers (107 wRC+ in 427 PA), but if not, the club could go with some kind of a timeshare with Fowler in center.  Fowler did play 377 innings there in 2019.

That still wouldn’t be a big solve in a St. Louis outfield that is full of question marks, though it isn’t to say that the Cardinals are short on personnel.  Beyond Fowler, Bader, the defensively-limited Martinez, and utilitymen Edman and Yairo Munoz, there’s also top prospect Tyler O’Neill ready for a longer look, Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena as two more youngsters who looked good in limited action during their rookie seasons, and another star prospect in Dylan Carlson down at Triple-A.

It’s a group that is long on potential, but there isn’t guarantee that that potential will manifest itself in everyday solutions for the 2020 roster.  Free agents like Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun or other veterans who could be signed to relatively inexpensive shorter-term deals would add some proven ability to the mix.

In terms of longer-term commitments, the Cards have had some recent discussions with Marcell Ozuna’s camp about a possible reunion.  The common thinking had long been that the Cardinals would let Ozuna walk in free agency after two decent but unspectacular years in St. Louis, with the Cards collecting a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer that Ozuna is likely to reject.

That extra pick could also make the Cardinals more likely to surrender a pick of their own to sign one of the other nine QO free agents.  Of that group, Josh Donaldson has long been a Cardinals target, though signing him would create the problem of what to do with Carpenter.  Will Smith would help firm up a bullpen that has some ninth inning questions — if Mozeliak and Girsch aren’t hesitant about committing another big contract to a reliever after the underwhelming results from Brett Cecil and Andrew Miller in St. Louis.

Gerrit Cole will likely fall beyond the Cards’ price range, but Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi or even Stephen Strasburg could be targeted in an effort to further solidify an already strong rotation.  Jack Flaherty emerged as the Cardinals’ ace down the stretch, while Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Adam Wainwright all provided quality innings.

Wainwright seems likely to be re-signed, but given his age and the shaky peripherals that underlined Hudson’s seemingly sharp 3.35 ERA, one more veteran arm would definitely add some reinforcement to the starting five.  Beyond the qualifying offer types, names like Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, or Kyle Gibson would make sense.  The grounder-heavy attack of the latter two pitchers would make them particularly good fits for a strong defensive team like the Cardinals.

In terms of in-house rotation depth, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, or Genesis Cabrera could be deployed as starters or relievers.  Former top prospect Alex Reyes is also technically in the mix, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what Reyes could add to the bullpen or rotation after yet another injury-plagued year.  At this point, he’s thrown all of 67 1/3 innings between the majors and minors over the past three seasons combined.

Perhaps the more realistic X-factor is Carlos Martinez, who will be given another look as a starting pitcher in Spring Training.  Shoulder problems forced Martinez into the bullpen in the last two seasons, though the righty made the most of the situation by delivering some strong numbers in 2019 (3.17 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.94 K/BB over 48 1/3 IP) and even taking over closing duties in the wake of Jordan Hicks’ Tommy John surgery on June 26.  Hicks could return late next season.

Depending on what additions are make to the starting five, Martinez might well end up as the closer again, though St. Louis could still look to add another reliever with closing experience to the pen.  Smith would be the biggest possible get, but even a lower-tier option like Sergio Romo would be much less costly and perhaps all the cushion the Cardinals need given Martinez’s success in the closer role.  Among internal options, Miller has saved some games in the past, and breakout reliever Giovanny Gallegos could also be considered for save situations.

Backup catcher is the most obvious bench need, and re-signing Matt Wieters might be the easiest potential option.  The Cards would likely prefer Wieters or another experienced backstop ahead of Andrew Knizner, who made his MLB debut last season and has been tabbed as the Cardinals’ catcher of the future….assuming the ageless Molina ever retires, that is.  Molina is looking for a rebound season after his play, particularly his offense, was hampered by thumb problems in 2019.

One wrinkle to the team’s underachieving play for much of the season is that St. Louis might already have a good idea about what some of its assets might net on the trade market.  Such players as Carlos Martinez, Jose Martinez, O’Neill, Thomas, and more were mentioned in trade rumors last summer and even last offseason.  Given the crowded roster, one can certainly make the case that the Cardinals are well-suited to be a popular figure in trade negotiations this winter.

Aside from Goldschmidt, Flaherty, Molina, and probably Mikolas and Gallegos, it could be argued that every player on the Cardinals’ big league roster could be a trade candidate, depending on how big a splash the club feels it needs.  Packaging a young outfielder with Fowler to clear the outfield logjam and get Fowler’s contract off the books?  Likewise, maybe packaging a young player with Carpenter, if another team wants to take the risk on a Carpenter bounce-back?  Selling relatively high on Wong or DeJong?  There are no shortage of scenarios that could be floated, as the Cardinals have an on-paper surplus at multiple positions and have shown the willingness to spend in free agency to address any other roster holes.  Currently, the Cards project to an Opening Day payroll of about $162MM, which would match their Opening Day mark from 2019.  Trades could lower that total outlay, of course, and it’s possible that ownership is willing to push a bit further on the heels of an NLCS return.

The Cards have more questions than most teams coming off a League Championship Series appearance, but there’s enough talent on hand and enough potential for future moves that they could be one of the offseason’s more fascinating teams to watch.

Marcell Ozuna “Very Unlikely” To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna is “very unlikely” to accept the $17.8MM qualifying offer made to him by the Cardinals, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ozuna was seen as one of the few recipients who could consider accepting the one-year deal, but Heyman suggests that there is a robust market for Ozuna’s services.

While it was perhaps never likely that Ozuna would take the qualifying offer to stick around in St. Louis for another year, he stood out as one of the ten QO recipients who could be a candidate to accept in lieu of entering the open market. Ozuna’s retractors might pin the outfielder as one of the hitters who could suffer most in baseball’s notoriously stingy free agency; as a solid but unspectacular hitter who won’t carry a lineup and who doesn’t stand out on defense, critics might put him in Mike Moustakas territory.

That’s not to say he doesn’t offer any value. Ozuna is just two years removed from a breakout season in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he’s no longer the Gold Glover he was in 2017, Ozuna still grades out solidly as a defensive outfielder. By free agent standards, he’s on the younger side, and there’s reason to believe that he’s capable of more than the .241/.328/.472 line he posted in his second year in St. Louis; his .382 expected wOBA far outclassed his actual .336 mark, suggesting that Ozuna’s true talent level is a notch above his Cardinals output.

Assuming that Ozuna indeed elects to hit free agency, it’s not a foregone conclusions that the 28-year-old will play in a new uniform next year. Ozuna has expressed his desire to remain with the Cardinals, and while the organization has been less steadfast in their interest, it has been recently reported that the two sides are prepared to discuss a multiyear contract. By virtue of extending the QO, the club has demonstrated a willingness to keep Ozuna at a considerable cost, but only for one year—we’ll see how far they’re willing to go on a multiyear commitment.

Otherwise, Ozuna will reach free agency for the first time with a compensatory draft pick attached to him. We’ve seen in recent years that this additional price has been a deterrent for mid-range free agents, and Ozuna’s market will no doubt take a hit as a result, though to what extent it’s not clear. Regardless of the draft pick, Ozuna has plenty of desirable qualities that should make him an attractive target to a flurry of clubs, like Heyman notes; MLBTR projects Ozuna to receive a three year, $45MM contract—while that’s a lower projection that other outlets, such a deal would still give Ozuna the second-highest payday among free agent corner outfielders (behind only Nick Castellanos).

Cardinals' Brass Discusses Matt Carpenter

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  • The 2019 season was surprisingly pedestrian for Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, a normally excellent producer who fell flat after the team signed him to a two-year, $39MM extension in April. Carpenter stepped to the plate 492 times and hit a mediocre .226/.334/.392 with 15 home runs, giving him the lowest wRC+ (95) and fWAR (1.2) he has posted over a full season since debuting in 2011. But Carpenter, who will turn 34 later this month, seemingly hasn’t lost the confidence of Cardinals brass. ”‘Carp’ obviously will have a better season, we expect. He’s highly motivated,” chairman Bill DeWitt said this week (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak echoed that sentiment, saying the Cardinals’ confidence in Carpenter is “high” and calling this year “an outlier.” Of course, the Cardinals don’t have much choice but to publicly show faith in Carpenter, whom they’re likely stuck with because of the money left on his contract and his no-trade clause.

Cardinals Negotiating New Deal With Adam Wainwright

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in his season-ending press conference today that the team is attempting to work out a new deal with veteran righty Adam Wainwright. It seems Wainwright wishes to return to the fold and that the Cards would like to have him.

This doesn’t come as a surprise, given Wainwright’s strong bounceback showing in 2019. MLBTR predicted just yesterday that he’d return again to the St. Louis organization — with the only real doubt being whether he’d decide to suit up once more at 38 years of age.

Mozeliak indicated that there isn’t a deal in place at present, but discussions are expected to take place over the next week or two, with the hope being that the sides will line up for yet another campaign. That’d mark a 15th big league season for Wainwright, who has spent his entire Major League tenure with the Cardinals. The three-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young runner-up has amassed 2103 2/3 innings along the way and pitched to a 3.39 ERA with averages of 7.6 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s also given the Cards 105 2/3 innings of postseason work, notching a 2.81 ERA in that time.

While there was some question at the end of the 2018 season as to whether Wainwright had much of anything left in the tank, he once again proved his mettle with a solid 2019 campaign. The elder statesman of the St. Louis rotation logged 171 2/3 frames — his most since 2016 — and worked to a 4.19 ERA with a 153-to-64 K/BB ratio.

Wainwright may not be the staff ace that he once was, but the Cards no longer need him to function in that capacity (not that they’d complain about an unexpected return to 2009-10 form). Rather, burgeoning star Jack Flaherty has stepped up as the staff leader alongside the durable Miles Mikolas and another up-and-coming righty, Dakota Hudson. Assuming a new deal with Wainwright does indeed come to fruition, that he’ll join that trio and perhaps Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes or an outside addition in rounding out the Cardinals’ starting staff next season.

Another one-year arrangement seems likely, given Wainwright’s age, but he’ll surely be in line for a larger base salary than the modest $2MM he took on last year’s “prove-it” deal. Wainwright ultimately maxed out his incentives package and took home a $10MM total — and something closer to that range seems more plausible this time around.

Cardinals Extend John Mozeliak, Mike Girsch, Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals have announced new deals for three key members of their leadership, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers (links to Twitter). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak gets three new years, while top lieutenant and GM Mike Girsch receives two more on top of his 2020 deal.

There’s continuity as well in the dugout. Skipper Mike Schildt will receive a new three-year arrangement that keeps him at the helm through 2022. His entire coaching staff will also be returning.

Last we checked on the contract status of Mozeliak and Girsch, they had reached new deals with the club that aligned with promotions in the middle of the 2017 season. Both reportedly signed on through 2020. It seems they’ll both remain on the same track, through the ’22 campaign, though the word out of the presser was a bit confusing on that front.

As for Shildt, he had already inked a deal upon being named the permanent manager in August of 2018. He’ll now also be bumped out through the 2022 season.

This news comes on the heels of a strong 2019 campaign in which the Cards returned to the postseason by hanging on in a tight NL Central. Despite suffering a sweep in the NLCS, the campaign was unquestionably a success. The organization will face a difficult task to repeat but certainly has a roster that remains set up to contend.

Cardinals, Marcell Ozuna To Discuss Multiyear Deal

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Cardinals left fielder Marcell Ozuna was one of 10 players to receive a qualifying offer before the deadline Monday. Should he turn it down, Ozuna will reach free agency with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head. But if Ozuna accepts, he’d return to the Cardinals in 2020 on a $17.8MM price tag. As of now, though, there’s at least some chance of a multiyear contract between the Cardinals and Ozuna that would negate the qualifying offer. The club has recently talked with Ozuna’s agent, Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management, and will meet again with him in the next 10 days to explore a new contract, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Ozuna has until Nov. 14 to take or reject the QO.

This is the first reported instance of the Cardinals showing serious interest in re-signing Ozuna, undoubtedly one of the premier unsigned position players in baseball. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Ozuna has made it known on multiple occasions he’d like to stay in St. Louis, where he has played since the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins entering the 2018 campaign.

Ozuna was coming off a tremendous season when the Cardinals traded for him, though he has been more good than exemplary since then. He’s now on the heels of a 2.8-fWAR campaign in which he hit .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a personal-best 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. Ozuna’s production led to a 110 wRC+, meaning he was 10 percent better than the league-average offensive player. That’s obviously closer to solid than stellar, but the longtime Statcast darling did continue to thrive in that regard this season. Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.382) blew past his real wOBA (.336) and ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. His hard-hit rate (49.2 percent) was even better, defeating all but 4 percent of hitters.

Ozuna’s reps are likely to push his Statcast excellence when trying to secure a new deal for their client. And MLBTR expects Ozuna to do fairly well on the market despite a QO, as his projection (three years, $45MM) ranks as our 11th-highest guarantee among free agents and falls behind just one other corner outfielder (Nicholas Castellanos) in a market rife with flawed options. Whether the Cardinals would dole out that type of money over a multiyear period is up in the air, but by extending a QO, they’ve already shown a willingness to keep Ozuna around at a pricey figure for at least another season. For now, with Ozuna’s status in limbo, the reigning National League Central champions count Dexter Fowler, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and coveted prospect Dylan Carlson among their outfield options who remain under control.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Cardinals Outright Joe Hudson

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The Cardinals announced today that they have outrighted catcher Joe Hudson off of their 40-man roster. His roster spot was needed with several players being reinstated following 60-day injured list stints.

Hudson, 28, is a former sixth-round pick who has seen very brief MLB action in each of the past two campaigns. He owns a modest .249/.323/.411 slash line over 383 plate appearances at Triple-A since the start of 2018. As is often the case with offensively limited backstops of this ilk, Hudson is primarily valued for his sturdy glovework behind the plate.

Angels Claim Mike Mayers

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The Angels announced that they have claimed righty Mike Mayers off waivers from the Cardinals. The out of options hurler will compete for a pen job in camp if he can stick on the Los Angeles 40-man roster the rest of the winter.

Mayers, 27, is coming off of a forgettable campaign in St. Louis. He was given just 19 innings, over which he allowed 14 earned runs with a 16:11 K/BB ratio. In his 80 2/3 total frames at the game’s highest level, Mayers has worked to a 7.03 ERA.

Though the results clearly haven’t been there at the game’s highest level, Mayers has shown a mid-nineties fastball. He has also been quite effective at Triple-A. This past year, he turned in twenty frames of 3.15 ERA pitching there with 24 strikeouts and seven walks.

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