- Adam Wainwright, 38, gave a brilliant performance this evening in the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss to the Braves, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. It was a vintage performance for the former ace, who gave the Cardinals 171.2 innings of league average pitching (4.19 ERA, 20.5% K%, 8.6% BB%) in the regular season. Clearly, Wainwright can still perform at a high level, but given his age and the upcoming expiration of his one-year contract, there are questions about his future. Wainwright, though, doesn’t sound like a man on the verge of hanging up the spikes, telling Joe Trezza of MLB.com postgame he “never felt for one second that today was going to be (his) last day.” That’s not a definitive statement that he’d be returning to the big leagues, or to St. Louis specifically, but it stands to reason both sides could have interest in a similar incentive-laden arrangement (which Waino went on to maximize for $10MM) as they hammered out last October.
Cardinals Rumors
Free Agent Outlook: Marcell Ozuna
With little in the way of hot stove news during the rising action of the MLB postseason, let’s take a look ahead to this winter’s free agency. In particular, we’ll be evaluating the market for a player who could prove to be one of the offseason’s more intriguing cases: Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna.
After he was traded from the Marlins to St. Louis as part of the post-2017 fire sale in Miami, Ozuna has endured a pair of unspectacular seasons as a Cardinal. That’s not to say he’s been bad, but expectations were high after he slugged 37 home runs in his last season with the Marlins. His struggles in 2018, when he totaled only 23 round-trippers, can be at least partly be attributed to a nagging shoulder injury that plagued him throughout the year and ultimately required surgery. This year, with a healthy shoulder, he has enjoyed a nice uptick in his power numbers, though that has still only translated to a slightly above-average .804 OPS.
When the Cardinals postseason comes to a close, Ozuna will have a chance to hit the open market for the first time, reaching free agency as a 28-year-old outfielder. (He’ll play the 2020 campaign at age 29). That places him among the younger options from which teams will choose, making him arguably the most attractive of this offseason’s outfield class, which is a relatively thin one.
Ozuna, for his part, has expressed a desire to remain in St. Louis beyond this year, calling it a “priority” to ink a contract that will keep him with the Cardinals. However, the Cardinals may not share his enthusiasm for a reunion. John Mozeliak expressed hesitance to discuss an extension with Ozuna, instead opting to postpone that matter until the offseason. Other, cheaper options within the organization could replace Ozuna in the corner outfield, with Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson seemingly ready to contribute.
It seems like a good bet that the Cardinals will tender a qualifying offer to Ozuna, which figures to come in at around $18MM this offseason. That designation would force a signing team to forfeit a draft pick in order to acquire Ozuna’s services.
Many teams might not be convinced that Ozuna is capable of returning to the power numbers that he displayed on his way out of Miami. Still, there are promising signs: Ozuna ranks among baseball’s best in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, both of which are at career-best marks. His expected statistics—which calculate the expected outcomes of batted balls based on exit velocity and launch angle—paint him as one of the premier offensive performers in baseball.
Another point of concern will be Ozuna’s defensive shortcomings. Although there’s a Gold Glove Award on his mantle, Ozuna has provided little value as an outfielder since departing Miami. He grades as below-average in Statcast’s outs above average and outfielder jump metrics—ranking in the 13th and 29th percentile, respectively. On the positive side, he is credited with 2 DRS, thanks in large part to a strong throwing arm. That’s not a bad mark at all, but teams may be hesitant to project that performance into his thirties as he seeks a multi-year deal.
Could Ozuna be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer? Sure, there’s a solid chance that he could eclipse the total value with a multi-year contract on the open market (though almost certainly at a lower AAV), but accepting the one-year deal could grant Ozuna’s wish to stay in St. Louis and attempt to rebuild his value, perhaps with an eye on a contract extension with the Cardinals or another chance at free agency following the 2020 season.
As we all well know, the free-agent landscape has been notoriously cruel over the last two years, and Ozuna feels like a player who could be strongly affected by the evolving market. As a bat-first left fielder nearing his thirties, teams might be reluctant to invest heavily in a profile that depends mostly on offensive production—which, generally speaking, has been underwhelming since Ozuna joined the Cardinals. If Ozuna and his reps get an inkling that his free-agent market may not be as expansive as they hoped, that could give another reason to regroup and return to the Cardinals under the qualifying offer.
However, the allure of a multi-year contract with a total guarantee exceeding that of the QO may be too much to resist for Ozuna, a first-time free agent in his prime years. Even if his most likely outcome is a two- or three-year deal with an AAV of about $13-16MM, Ozuna may not have another chance to test the open market as arguably the best player at his position. That alone might incline a team to overpay for him. Regardless, as we head towards another offseason of intrigue, Ozuna may be a name to follow in a free-agent class that lacks star-power position players.
Cardinals Tab Wainwright For NLDS Game 3
As Rogers notes, Wainwright will be making his 24th appearance in a postseason game (13 starts), after first appearing in the national October spotlight in 2006 as a relief ace for then-manager Tony La Russa’s World Series-winning Cards team. That year saw a 24-year-old Wainwright begin his playoff career with 9.2 scoreless innings, and he has only followed up that initial success by compiling a nifty 3.03 ERA across 89.0 career postseason innings. This year marked the now-38-year-old’s first season over the 30-start mark since 2016, and this October should provide him yet another opportunity to assure the Cardinals–and rival clubs–that he deserves a healthy free agent guarantee this winter.
Sunday will mark the first postseason game played in St. Louis in three years, but Cardinals manager Mike Schildt will be trusting the game’s start to a relatively practiced postseason hand. Redbirds legend Adam Wainwright–a free-agent-to-be this offseason–will be taking the ball for Schildt, who is counting on the pitcher’s experience with what promises to be a raucous Busch Stadium atmosphere.
As Rogers notes, Wainwright will be making his 24th appearance in a postseason game (13 starts), after first appearing in the national October spotlight in 2006 as a relief ace for then-manager Tony La Russa’s World Series-winning Cards team. That year saw a 24-year-old Wainwright begin his playoff career with 9.2 scoreless innings, and he has only followed up that initial success by compiling a nifty 3.03 ERA across 89.0 career postseason innings. This year marked the now-38-year-old’s first season over the 30-start mark since 2016, and this October should provide him yet another opportunity to assure the Cardinals–and rival clubs–that he deserves a healthy free agent guarantee this winter.
Cardinals Announce NLDS Roster
The Cardinals have announced their roster for their National League Division Series showdown against the Braves, which kicks off in about six hours when Game 1 starter Miles Mikolas squares off against lefty Dallas Keuchel in Atlanta. Here’s their full roster:
Right-handed pitchers
- John Brebbia
- Jack Flaherty (Game 2 starter)
- Giovanny Gallegos
- Ryan Helsley
- Dakota Hudson
- Carlos Martinez
- Miles Mikolas (Game 1 starter)
- Daniel Ponce de Leon
- Adam Wainwright
Left-handed pitchers
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Notable absences from the roster include right-handers Michael Wacha and John Gant. Wacha has long been a fixture on the Cardinals’ pitching staff but suffered a mild shoulder strain in his final outing of the season — a performance that could prove to be his final game as a Cardinal. The 28-year-old will become a free agent at season’s end, and his up-and-down season ultimately came to a close with middling end results: a 4.76 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in 126 2/3 innings. Wacha was twice demoted to the bullpen but returned to a starting role in each instance. The Cardinals could, of course, explore a reunion this winter, but they have a solid trio in Flaherty, Hudson and Mikolas — to say nothing of Carlos Martinez and perennial wild card Alex Reyes. They’ll also surely consider another deal with Wainwright, if the venerable rotation workhorse wishes to continue playing. Even if the Cards do seek a starter this winter, they may prefer more stability than Wacha can offer.
As for Gant, he opened the season as perhaps the Cardinals’ most reliable reliever, but his 2019 campaign took a sharp turn for the worst in late June. The 27-year-old, acquired in the 2016 swap that sent Jaime Garcia to the very organization the Cardinals will face in this series, carried a sub-2.00 ERA past the midpoint of June. He was torched for four runs in a third of an inning on June 23, however, and seemingly never regained his form. Gant allowed runs in 14 of his final 30 appearances this season, pitching to a 7.11 ERA the rest of the way. He pitched a total of 41 innings through the Cardinals’ first 74 games but logged just 25 1/3 frames from that point forth despite never landing on the IL or being optioned to the minors.
It’s also of note that the 24-year-old Arozarena has cracked the postseason roster. A fairly high-profile signing out of Cuba a few years back, Arozarena split the majority of the season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he posted huge numbers at both levels. He appeared in only 19 games in the Majors as a September call-up, though, and totaled a mere 23 plate appearances in that time. The Cards could’ve opted to bring Tyler O’Neill along to provide some pop off the bench, but they’ll instead opt for Arozarena’s superior speed and defensive versatility, as he’s capable of playing all three outfield spots.
As for the rest of the Cardinals’ rotation beyond Mikolas in Game 1 and Flaherty in Game 2, it’s a bit up in the air. Manager Mike Shildt indicated that Hudson is tentatively in line to start Game 3 but will also be available in relief in Games 1 and 2. If he does come out of the bullpen, Wainwright would get the nod in Game 3 with Hudson potentially starting the fourth game depending on when and how he is used (link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
Cardinals Beat Writer Derrick Goold Administers Life-Saving CPR
For those who believe that baseball heroes only reside between the lines of play, this writer might humbly direct your attention to a particular member of the St. Louis press box. Derrick Goold, a longtime writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch who covers the Cardinals, was the subject of a piece from colleague Rick Hummel today after Goold came to the rescue of a 64-year-old man at Busch Stadium on Sunday. Mike Flanary, a St. Louis-based videographer, collapsed in the Cubs dugout and was briefly without a pulse before Goold rushed to his aid and administered life-saving CPR. Flanary was brought to a nearby hospital, where he was treated for the effects of a heart attack and stroke; he remained in critical-but-stable condition on Sunday evening.
Latest on Kolten Wong
Cardinals fans eagerly await the return of Kolten Wong, who went down with a Grade 2 hamstring strain ten days ago. Perhaps baseball’s best defensive second baseman, Wong has put up a career-best offensive season in 2018, slashing .285/.361/.423 (108 wRC+) and stealing 24 bases. Considering Wong’s well-rounded production, there’s a case to be made St. Louis has been without its most valuable position player for the past week and a half.
Wong is predictably urgent to return to the field with the NL Central still in flux on the season’s final day, but he’s wary of returning too quickly and suffering a more debilitating injury, he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It’s at a point right now where I don’t know where my hamstring is. I know it’s better. But is it 100%? Probably not,” Wong informed Goold yesterday.
While there may be an inclination on some fans’ part for Wong to chance it with the division on the line, it seems caution is the prudent move. Between this afternoon’s game against the Cubs and potential tiebreaker and Wild Card games with Milwaukee and Washington, the Cards have up to three chances to clinch a spot in an NL Division Series. (Of course, if the Rockies complete a sweep of the Brewers today, the Cardinals would sew up the Central even if they lose to Chicago). Having put themselves in a position to get multiple bites at the apple, St. Louis may prefer to wait as long as possible before putting Wong back on the diamond.
As Goold updates, Wong continues to make progress in all facets of the game but feels some soreness while running and fielding non-routine groundballs. That seems especially troublesome for a player who derives so much of his value from his defensive and baserunning prowess.
Cardinals manager Mike Shildt didn’t rule out Wong getting into today’s game in some capacity when speaking with Goold yesterday. Nevertheless, as expected, Matt Carpenter is getting the call at third with Tommy Edman sliding over to the keystone yet again to kick things off. They’ll take on Cubs’ opener Derek Holland, who will surely be followed by a cavalcade of relievers, having not gone more than three innings in an appearance since April.
Latest On Michael Wacha
- Still just one game up on the Brewers in the NL Central, the Cardinals might not even make it to the NLDS this year. If the Redbirds do get that far, though, it’s “unlikely” injured right-hander Michael Wacha will factor into their plans, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Wacha, who suffered a mild strain of his pitching shoulder Wednesday, won’t be able to pick up a ball for at least five to seven days, per Hummel. Fortunately, Wacha doesn’t have any structural damage, nor is this shoulder injury related to previous issues he has dealt with in that area. Manager Mike Shildt is optimistic Wacha will pitch again this season, but it appears that will require the Cardinals to advance to the NLCS.
Michael Wacha To Undergo MRI
Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha exited what may have been his final appearance in a Cardinals uniform during the second inning last night due to what the team initially termed a “mild strain” of his right shoulder. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Wacha had difficulty getting loose in warmups yesterday and is now slated for an MRI to gather more information on the injury.
The results of the imaging will be consequential on multiple levels, as they could not only determine Wacha’s status for the Cardinals’ postseason roster but could have a considerable impact on the right-hander’s looming free agency. Wacha would presumably only be a consideration to make the postseason roster as a reliever — Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson would handle starting duties — but a balky shoulder could leave him on the outside looking in.
Wacha’s free-agent stock has tumbled considerably in 2019. Entering the year, he was coming off a 3.20 ERA through 15 starts in 2018 and a solid 30-start campaign in 2017. Wacha did miss half the 2018 campaign, but that was due to a pair of oblique strains on his left side — not an arm-related injury. As a former first-round pick and top prospect who was slated to hit free agency in advance of his age-28 season, Wacha would’ve benefited immensely from a continuation of the 3.82 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 he’d posted over his prior 250 big league innings.
Instead, he missed a week early in the season due to tendinitis in his knee and has struggled repeatedly when working as a starter. The St. Louis organization has twice demoted him to the bullpen, only to return him to the rotation out of necessity, but the results haven’t been favorable in either role. Overall, he’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, a whopping 1.85 HR/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate.
Of all the red flags surrounding Wacha, though, this latest bout of shoulder trouble could be the most concerning. It’s been years since the shoulder caused him to miss time, but Wacha does have a history of shoulder troubles. A stress reaction in that same shoulder caused him to miss more than two months of his second big league season back in 2014, and he missed more than a month with shoulder inflammation in 2016. Even if the MRI reveals no major damage, Wacha may not have much of a chance to prove that he can continue pitching unencumbered by the shoulder discomfort, and a second-inning departure due to shoulder pain isn’t exactly a high point on which to set out into the open market.
Wacha is a fairly accomplished big league pitcher — he’s a former All-Star and NLCS MVP with a sub-4.00 ERA in 867 2/3 career innings — but despite having age firmly on his side, he’ll enter the offseason as more of a rebound candidate than a marquee free agent.
Latest On Kolten Wong
- The left hamstring strain Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong suffered last Thursday is a Grade 2 tear, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That likely sounds worse than it is, as Wong’s hopeful he’ll be able to come back during the Cardinals’ final series of the regular season. The Redbirds are closing in on a division title thanks in part to Wong, a .285/.361/.423 hitter with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. His absence has enabled Matt Carpenter to get back into the Cardinals’ everyday lineup at third base, while highly productive rookie Tommy Edman has taken over for Wong at the keystone.
Adam Wainwright Set To Max Out Contract Incentives
When the Cardinals re-signed veteran righty Adam Wainwright over the winter, there was no shortage of second-guessing. But the move has worked out for all involved, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Wainwright will max out his incentives package when he makes his thirtieth start on the year this evening.
The contract came with just $2MM in guaranteed money — a reflection of Wainwright’s subpar output in the preceding campaigns. It called for an array of bonuses tied to the volume of work he performed as a starter and/or reliever. As it turns out, Wainwright earned and held a rotation job all year long while only spending a brief stretch on the injured list. He was thereby able to tack on a hefty $8MM to his earnings for the season, the final $2MM of which is earned with tonight’s outing.
Wainwright says it all turned out as hoped:
“They would be incentives that if I hit that would be great for the team and they would be glad to pay me for it. And if it didn’t hit I didn’t deserve it based on what I’ve done the last couple of years. … That’s what I expected to do. It’s good to come through on things you expect to do.”
There’s no doubt the St. Louis organization is pleased as well. Wainwright didn’t just fill innings, he did so with aplomb. Through 162 1/3 innings, he carries a 3.83 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and a 49.3% groundball rate. ERA estimators view him as much the same pitcher he was in the prior few seasons — as a roughly mid-4.00 true-talent performer — but Wainwright finally had a bit of good fortune in a memorable campaign that could be his last.
It remains to be seen whether Wainwright will look to extend his career past 2019. It seems reasonable to presume the veteran will want to return to St. Louis if he does desire to continue pitching. From the team’s perspective, it’s not hard to imagine a return again making sense in some scenarios. For now, all involved are surely content with focusing on the upcoming postseason run.
The Cards opened the present campaign with $162MM and change on their MLB payroll. Despite foregoing significant in-season acquisitions, they’ll end with over $170MM owing to the extra cash due to Wainwright. Just how high the tab has gone is hard to say, but it seems unlikely that the Cards will reach their end-of-year payroll highpoint ($182.7MM in 2017). Regardless, it’s money well spent for a club that’s headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
