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10 NL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our series focusing on notable players looking for bounce-back seasons in 2020 rolls on with the National League Central. We’ll start with 10 of the division’s hitters who hope to return to form this year…

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds:

Votto is one of the greatest hitters who has ever lived, so it was rather surprising – even at the age of 35 – to see him turn in such pedestrian numbers in 2019. He ended up with what was essentially a league-average line of .261/.357/.411 with 15 home runs in 608 plate appearances, mustering just 0.7 fWAR during that span. Compared to 2018, the ever-patient Votto saw his walk rate fall by almost 5 percent, his out-of-zone swing rate jump by nearly 5 percent and his strikeout rate climb by 4 percent. Regarding his performance last year, Votto admitted in February (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com): “It’s the worst season I’ve had in my career, pretty clearly. I don’t think it’s close. Everything went the wrong way.” Now, the six-time All-Star and former MVP is “motivated” to turn things around as part of what could be the Reds’ first contending team in several years.

Lorenzo Cain, CF, Brewers:

Cain joined Votto in logging uncharacteristically mediocre numbers last season. But Cain, a 5.7-fWAR player as recently as 2018, was clearly hampered by a right thumb injury. That issue played a part in limiting the 33-year-old to 1.5 fWAR and a .260/.325/.372 line across 623 trips to the plate. From 2018-19, his walk rate fell by 3.5 percent, his wRC+ plummeted by 41 points (124 to 83) and he stole 12 fewer bases (30 to 18).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Brewers:

One of the Brewers’ offseason free-agent pickups, Smoak is coming off a year in which he matched Votto in wRC+. That’s normally a good thing, but at 101, that wasn’t the case last season. In his final campaign with the Blue Jays, the switch-hitting Smoak only put together a .208/.342/.406 line in his 500 PA. But his hard-hit rate increased by almost 9 percent, according to FanGraphs, and Statcast was a fan of his work. Notably, the 33-year-old’s expected weighted on-base average (.366) far outpaced his real wOBA (.323).

Jedd Gyorko, INF, Brewers:

Another of Milwaukee’s offseason signings, Gyorko is on the heels of a brutal and injury-wrecked 2019 spent with the Cardinals and Dodgers. He accounted for minus-0.7 fWAR in just 101 PA, thanks in large part to an unsightly .174/.248/.250 line. Before that, Gyorko totaled three straight seasons of above-average offensive production. For an affordable $2MM, Milwaukee’s hoping a healthy version of the 31-year-old will return to his 2016-18 days.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals:

There was nothing wrong with Goldschmidt’s output in 2019, per se; it just didn’t match up to the brilliance we’ve come to expect from him. A middling start to the six-time All-Star’s first season as a Cardinal tamped down his overall numbers, helping limit him to a .260/.346/.476 showing and 2.9 fWAR (though he did hit 34 home runs). Remember, Goldschmidt entered the year as a lifetime .297/.398/.532 hitter with six consecutive seasons of between 4.0 and 7.2 fWAR.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals:

Carpenter, like Goldschmidt, was a star in the several seasons preceding 2019. But last year went awry for Carpenter, who – for the first time in his career – failed to record even average offensive production. The 34-year-old finished the season as a .226/.334/.392 hitter in 492 PA, notching a career-worst 1.2 fWAR in the process. Compared to 2018, Carpenter’s walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong direction by about 3 percent apiece, his ISO plummeted by a stunning 100 points, and his hard-hit percentage fell by eight points.

Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals:

The Cardinals are currently working to extend the 37-year-old Molina, one of the best players in franchise history, though the potential Hall of Famer wasn’t his usual self in 2019. He produced his lowest fWAR (1.2) since 2006 and batted a powerless .270/.312/.399 in 452 PA. On the other side, Molina’s caught-stealing rate went down by a few points to 27 percent (still a bit better than average), and his pitch-framing output also dropped.

Harrison Bader, CF, Cardinals:

With this many Cardinals on the list, it’s a wonder they took the division last season. Anyhow, Bader was a major contributor to the team in 2018 – his first full season – but couldn’t come close to replicating that performance in ’19. His fWAR was cut in half by 50 percent (3.6 to 1.8), largely because of a disappointing .205/.314/.366 line over 406 trips to the plate. A 4 percent increase in strikeout rate was among the culprits. To Bader’s credit, though, he did slash his soft-contact rate and continue to thrive in the outfield, where he tallied 14 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates:

It would be fair to give Polanco a mulligan for his poor year, as he underwent left shoulder surgery in September 2018 and dealt with problems in that area throughout last season. He only appeared in 42 games and amassed 167 PA, batting .242/.301/.425.

Daniel Descalso, INF, Cubs:

The typically light-hitting Descalso was so effective as a Diamondback in 2018 that it convinced the Cubs to give him a two-year, $5MM contract heading into last season. That decision has not paid off at all so far. The 33-year-old Descalso’s initial season in Chicago couldn’t have gone much worse, as he batted .173/.241/.250 over 194 PA and accounted for minus-0.8 fWAR. Among 411 hitters who racked up at least 150 PA, Descalso ranked seventh worst in wRC+ (42) and 14th from the bottom in ISO (.077). If you’re skeptical that he’ll turn back into a decent contributor this year, you’re not alone, but there’s really nowhere to go but up.

Brett Cecil Leaves Game With Hamstring Injury

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Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil left Wednesday’s spring training game after injuring his hamstring while covering first base, Anne Rogers of MLB reported on Twitter.

Cecil will go for tests tomorrow to see what caused the “pop” he felt in his leg. The lefty said he was feeling good about how his spring was going before the incident. “That was the best I’ve felt in a long time,” he told Rogers. “Cutter was cutting, sinker was sinking, ball was good. See how it looks tomorrow and go from there.”

Another injury would further dent what has been a disappointing tenure in St. Louis for Cecil. Before the 2017 season, the Cardinals signed the southpaw to a four-year deal that guaranteed him $30.5MM. At the time, Cecil was coming off a four-year run of quality out of the Blue Jays bullpen, with a 2.90 ERA and 11.5 K/9 over that stretch.

However, since swapping one ornithological jersey for another, the results have not been nearly as positive. In 2017, the first season of his deal, Cecil’s stats regressed somewhat, as he mustered a palatable 3.88 ERA but with a paltry 8.8 K/9, by far his lowest since becoming a full-time reliever. 2018 came with shoulder issues and saw Cecil’s effectiveness dip even lower, to an ERA of 6.89 and a 5.2 K/9. And he couldn’t even make it onto a major league mound in 2019, going on the IL on March 28th. Cecil had carpal tunnel surgery in April and never made it back onto the roster. The Cardinals will pay him $7.25MM in 2020, the final year of the deal.

Though St. Louis surely would have welcomed Cecil returning to form, they would not have been relying on him to make significant contributions based on his recent track record. Although with fellow lefty Andrew Miller also currently on the shelf, that leaves the Cardinals with only inexperienced southpaws for their bullpen, such as Tyler Webb and Genesis Cabrera.

Cardinals, Yadier Molina Discussing Extension

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The Cardinals are working to extend the contract of longtime catcher Yadier Molina for at least one more year and “probably” two more seasons, reports The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required).

Molina, 37, has been the Cardinals’ primary catcher since 2005 and, over the course of his career, has shouldered the largest workload of any backstop in the game. His durability is the stuff of legend, as evidenced by 15 straight seasons of at least 107 games caught and an average of 126.4 games caught per season during that remarkable stretch. From 2009-13, Molina caught at least 131 games per year. As recently as 2016, he started a ridiculous 142 games behind the plate.

Currently in the final season of a three-year, $60MM extension that pays him an even $20MM per year, it’s unlikely that Molina would command such a lofty salary under the terms of a new contract. The 2019 season, after all, was among the least-productive years he’s put together since breaking out as a big league regular (despite a league-wide uptick in offensive output). In 452 plate appearances, he hit .270/.312/.399. Molina’s low strikeout rate and excellent bat-to-ball skills have long helped him post quality batting averages, but last year’s 5.1 percent walk rate was the lowest of his career. His power dipped noticeably from its 2017-18 levels as well. Molina’s once-elite caught-stealing rate and framing numbers have also tailed off over the past couple of seasons, checking in closer to league average.

Molina, of course, is still a plenty useful backstop — one whose all-around value to the organization would surely be labeled as invaluable by the Cardinals themselves. Hammering out a specific price point could be difficult, though. Molina’s annual salary was already a high-water mark for catchers, and there’s no recent precedent for a catcher inking an extension at this point in his career. Then again, there’s no real precedent for a catcher with Molina’s track record in today’s game at all (as alluded to previously). By the time most catchers reach their age-38 seasons — Molina will turn 38 in July — most have either been downgraded to backup status or have simply retired.

The level at which Molina deems an offer to be suitable, then, is anyone’s guess. His career path in some ways mirrors that of longtime teammate Adam Wainwright, who looked to be running on fumes at the end of the 2018 season. Wainwright agreed to a one-year deal with a minimal $2MM base salary in 2019 and maxed out his incentives package with a bounceback 2019 effort that he parlayed into a $5MM deal for the 2020 season — but that comparison only goes so far. The two play vastly different positions, Molina is talking extension as opposed to a free-agent deal, and he’s still been healthy and reasonably productive on the field.

Saxon reported late last month that Molina would be willing to accept a reduced role in the second season of a new deal (2022), but it seems for the time being he’s still focused on functioning as a workhorse behind the plate. If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine him settling for anything like the Wainwright deal. Free-agent catcher Robinson Chirinos, who shares an agent (Melvin Roman) with Molina, just signed a one-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee for his age-36 season in Texas, but he doesn’t have Molina’s track record and isn’t ingrained into the very fabric of Rangers history in the same was as Molina, who has reached icon status in St. Louis.

The Cardinals have $101MM on the 2020 books and $115MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, so it’s certainly not a matter of whether they can fit a new Molina deal into the budget. Rather, the question becomes how the two sides account for a potentially waning level of production for Molina while still respecting the level of value he’s provided over the past decade and a half as he carved out a likely road to the Hall of Fame.

Cardinals Renew Jack Flaherty’s 2020 Contract

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The Cardinals have renewed the contract of right-hander Jack Flaherty for the 2020 season, as per a team announcement.  Flaherty was the only one of 25 pre-arbitration players on the Cards’ roster who didn’t agree to terms on a contract for the coming season, and thus the team will impose Flaherty’s salary for 2020.

That number will work out to $604.5K, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The Cardinals’ internal formula for calcuating pre-arb raises based on merit awarded Flaherty some extra money beyond the $563.5K minimum salary for his outstanding numbers in 2019, including a special $10K bonus for his fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.  However, that $10K was canceled out by a $10K penalty that the Cardinals impose on any pre-arbitration player who doesn’t come to an agreement.

This is the second consecutive season that Flaherty has had his contract renewed rather than come to an agreement, which the righty told reporters was a matter of “principle.”  As a reminder, whether or not a player agrees to his pre-arb salary or gets his contract renewed, it doesn’t have any bearing on his roster status.  Flaherty will still be suiting up as the Cardinals’ probable Opening Day starter, and he doesn’t appear to have any hard feelings about the situation.

“It’s just kind of the product of the system that we have,” Flaherty told reporters. “Can’t really do much.  They’re going to play within what they’re allowed to do in the system.  It’s not them.  I can’t fault them for doing that.  The system is what it is, and it’s not the best.”

Perhaps more notably, it doesn’t seem like the Cardinals and Flaherty’s made any headway towards a long-term contract extension, let alone his 2020 pact.  The two sides “were not able to find common ground for the discussion of an extension going into this spring training,” Goold writes.  Flaherty is still under team control through the 2023 season, so there isn’t any immediate rush for St. Louis to get Flaherty locked up, though the right-hander’s long-term price tag will only go up if he enjoys another good season in 2020.

The lack of an agreement on a pre-arb deal also doesn’t necessarily mean that a multi-year extension isn’t eventually possible.  Just last offseason, the Rays renewed Blake Snell’s deal for the 2019 campaign and then inked him to a five-year, $50MM extension only days later.  The Cardinals have long been proactive in giving extensions, both early-career deals to impressive young players and then secondary extensions to veterans (i.e. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright) who have established themselves as franchise cornerstones.

Cardinals Release Yairo Munoz

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The Cardinals announced this morning that they’ve placed infielder Yairo Munoz on unconditional release waivers. The move leaves an opening on the 40-man roster.

In an important detail, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that Munoz “left the team, flew home” without notifying the Cardinals. Manager Mike Shildt told Goold and other reporters that Munoz frequently complained about playing time last season. That’s certainly an interesting twist to the story, and it seems clear that Munoz wasn’t released for any baseball reason, but rather as a result of his own decision to excuse himself from camp.

As a matter of fact, Shildt stated that Munoz “had an inside track to a roster spot” as the team’s utilityman, according to Mark Saxon of The Athletic. Munoz, 25, has fulfilled a similar role for the Cardinals in each of the last two years, and he’s by no means been an unplayable Major Leaguer. There’s value in a player who can capably man six positions on the diamond, and Munoz has been just that over his first two big league seasons. That said, it would be hard to argue that Munoz, who owns a .273/.331/.391 career slash line over roughly a season’s worth of plate appearances, is deserving of the expanded role that he apparently coveted.

That’s especially true given the presence of established veterans in the St. Louis infield, which is where Munoz fits best. He had little chance of unseating either Matt Carpenter or Paul DeJong, the incumbent starters at Munoz’s two best positions. That starting combination has garnered four All-Star selections between them. The path to playing time in an outfield corner was perhaps less crowded, but even so: the team surely prefers Tommy Edman to Munoz after the former’s standout rookie performance; Dexter Fowler showed signs of life last year, and top prospect Dylan Carlson is waiting in the wings.

Munoz has five years of team control remaining, and that youth coupled with his positional versatility could make him an attractive free-agent option for several teams. It seems unlikely that Munoz is widely viewed as a starter in the short-term, so he may have to settle for a role similar to the one he played with St. Louis. It’s also fair to ask whether teams will hesitate given the circumstances surrounding Munoz’s release.

Mike Shildt On Carlos Martinez: "He's Established Himself, For Sure"

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  • Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez has been a starter for most of his career, but shoulder issues helped force the hard-throwing 28-year-old to their bullpen last season. He’s now back in the Cardinals’ rotation, though, and is showing off his old form this spring, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch observes.  “Everything’s been really good,” manager Mike Shildt said after Martinez threw five scoreless innings against Washington on Thursday. “That was a pretty dramatic display of, ‘Hey, I’m a starter.’ He’s established himself, for sure.”  Martinez has been quite successful in a starting role, having recorded a 3.38 ERA/3.61 FIP in 712 1/3 innings from the Cardinals’ rotation. The reigning NL Central champions would surely be pleased if he can offer similar production this season, especially with fellow righty Miles Mikolas set to miss the beginning of the year with an elbow injury.

Cardinals Could Again Renew Jack Flaherty's Contract

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Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty may be headed for a contract renewal for the second straight offseason since he has yet to agree to his 2020 contract, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards use a strict formula for giving salary raises for pre-arbitration players and Flaherty didn’t agree to his deal last year, leaving $10K in salary on the table and forcing the Cards to renew his 2019 contract for $562.1K, just $7.1K over the league minimum salary.  “Flaherty wanted his disagreement with the Cardinals’ valuation of his salary noted, and that was worth the $10,000 penalty,” Goold wrotes.

Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty may be headed for a contract renewal for the second straight offseason since he has yet to agree to his 2020 contract, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards use a strict formula for giving salary raises for pre-arbitration players and Flaherty didn’t agree to his deal last year, leaving $10K in salary on the table and forcing the Cards to renew his 2019 contract for $562.1K, just $7.1K over the league minimum salary.  “Flaherty wanted his disagreement with the Cardinals’ valuation of his salary noted, and that was worth the $10,000 penalty,” Goold wrotes.

As per the Cardinals’ formula, Goold reports that Flaherty is now in line for a salary close to $605K for the 2020 season — a 7.3 percent increase over the minimum salary, which is a new record raise since St. Louis adopted its formula.  Still, such a raise is still very small potatoes considering Flaherty’s great 2019 numbers, and also indicative of how little leverage pre-arbitration players have in earning any extra money for outstanding performance.  Flaherty is in line for a big raise once he enters the arbitration process next winter, though (barring an extension) the real big money won’t come until he hits free agency following the 2023 season.

Andrew Miller To Undergo "Battery Of Exams"

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  • Cardinals southpaw Andrew Miller is having difficulty “getting a feel for the ball,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Nothing “physically hurts,” according to Miller, but Goold writes that he’ll undergo a “battery of exams” to determine what’s troubling him. That’s not the type of news he or the Cardinals wanted entering the second season of a two-year, $25MM contract. The 34-year-old didn’t deliver as hoped in Year 1, as he posted a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP with 11.52 K/9, 4.45 BB/9 and a 37.2 percent grounder rate in 54 2/3 innings. Miller pitched in 73 games, and with 37 more appearances this year (110 from 2019-20), his $12MM vesting option for 2021 will become guaranteed.

Yairo Munoz Likely To Begin Season On Injured List

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Cardinals utilityman Yairo Munoz suffered a hamstring strain while running out an infield single on Saturday, manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other media.  According to Shildt, “it’s going to be a while” before Munoz returns to action, meaning an injured list placement looms for the 25-year-old.

Originally acquired from the Athletics as part of the December 2017 trade that sent Stephen Piscotty to Oakland, Munoz has been a valuable bench piece over his two Major League seasons, getting significant playing time at six different positions — shortstop, third base, second base, and all three outfield spots.  Munoz’s versatility has made him a nice part-time fill-in for injured or resting players, plus a late-game substitute on double switches.

While his minor league hitting numbers were decent but unspectacular, Munoz did some damage after being promoted to the Cardinals in 2018, batting .276/.350/.413 over his first 329 big league plate appearances.  Both the production and the playing time diminished in 2019, however, as Munoz hit .267/.298/.355 over 181 PA.  This dropoff put Munoz into a battle for a bench spot this spring, especially since the also-versatile Tommy Edman delivered an upgraded version (.850 OPS in 349 PA) of Munoz’s 2018 numbers in his own 2019 rookie year.

Edman can also play all over the diamond, and while St. Louis has him penciled into regular outfield duty for now, plans could change should one of the Cards’ many young outfielders — i.e. Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, or even top prospect Dylan Carlson — step up to win a job.  Veteran Brad Miller was also signed to a $2MM deal and figures to factor into the backup mix, especially since Miller hits from the left side, unlike Munoz and many other of the Cards’ top bench candidates.

Rays’ Centerfield Situation

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Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot are hard-coded atop the centerfield depth chart for the Tampa Bay Rays, but both players come with question marks.

Despite Kiermaier’s statesman status as the longest-tenured Ray, the club has taken an aggressive approach to finding players capable of roaming the grass in center. He remains a defensive stud, but his health is perpetually in question and his offense has slipped over the past two seasons. His two-year slash line checks in at just .223/.280/.386 across 847 plate appearances. Despite roughly 21% less offensive production than average (79 wRC+),  Kiermaier’s A-1 defensive abilities and plus baserunning skills maintain his viability as a starter. Margot fits the same profile, but five years younger and he bats from the right side.

The Rays know what they like, apparently, because they are continuing to experiment with  power-shy Lucius Fox in centerfield, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Fox has been an infielder for most of his career, primarily at shortstop, though he’s gotten looks at second and third as well. Fox is a tremendous speedster, making him a fit for center from a raw tools standpoint, but he has yet to log any professional time in the outfield. It hasn’t clicked yet for Fox offensively with a .244/.337/.325 line across four seasons in the minor leagues.

Before acquiring Margot, the Rays also picked up Randy Arozarena in the Matthew Liberatore trade. Arozarena now seems likely to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s another option for center. He also happens to be coming off a monster year in Triple-A, where he hit .358/.435/.593 in 64 games after earning a promotion from Double-A. He excelled in a small-sample 19 games with the Cardinals at the end of the year, making their playoff roster as a speed option off the bench. Purely from a numbers standpoint, Arozarena could have the highest-ceiling of all their current options.

The Rays clearly prefer a gold glove roving-type in centerfield, but Austin Meadows could also fill in there in a pinch. It is telling, however, that he has only logged 13 innings in center since being acquired from the Pirates.

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