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Jordan Hicks To Begin Season On Injured List

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Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks will open the 2020 season on the injured list, manager Mike Shildt told reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The flamethrowing 23-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last June and is still in the final stages of his rehab process.

Back in May, Hicks had progressed to the point where he was able to throw multiple 20-pitch bullpen sessions. About six weeks have elapsed since that time, but it doesn’t seem that Hicks is yet at the point where he can immediately contribute. The club does expect him to factor into the bullpen before too long, though no clear timetable was provided.

Hicks turned in a sharp rookie season back in 2018, tossing 77 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball — albeit with a more troubling 5.2 BB/9 mark and 13.3 percent overall walk rate. He looked to be taking his game to another level in 2019, though. Prior to going on the injured list, Hicks pitched 28 2/3 frames with across-the-board improvements in ERA (3.59 to 3.14), FIP (3.74 to 3.21), K/9 (8.1 to 9.7), K% (20.6 percent to 28.2 percent), BB% (13.3 percent to 10.0 percent) and ground-ball rate (60.7 percent to 67.2 percent). Those results and a fastball that averaged 101.6 mph in his brief career to date certainly paint the picture of a potentially dominant reliever.

With Hicks on the shelf to begin the year, the Cards should have plenty of alternatives — headlined by 2019 breakout setup man Giovanny Gallegos and veteran southpaw Andrew Miller. Gallegos, acquired in the 2018 Luke Voit trade with the Yankees, has helped to balance the scales on what initially looked like an inordinately lopsided deal. But while Voit came roaring out of the gates in the Bronx, Gallegos slowly and steadily increased his role in the St. Louis bullpen and wound up with downright dominant results in 2019: 74 innings, 2.31 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 11.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, one save, 19 holds. He’s controlled for another five seasons, so it seems the Cards may have unearthed a key long-term bullpen piece.

As for the 35-year-old Miller, the 2019 season wasn’t his strongest. Like many pitchers, Miller saw his home-run rates skyrocket last year as hitters piled up big flies at record rates amid revelations about alterations to the ball’s composition. Miller’s 4.45 ERA and 5.19 FIP were his highest marks since breaking out as a high-end reliever, but he still averaged 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

MLB, MLBPA Still Discussing Vesting Options, Retention Bonuses

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The length of the season, prorated salaries and protocols for health and safety are finally all set in place, but Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are still negotiating the manner in which contractual options, performance incentives/bonuses and escalator clauses will be handled, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

Fortunately, an agreement is believed to be “within reach,” per Rosenthal. The league had initially sought to prorate the value of 2021 options using the same formula as 2020 salaries, although the MLBPA obviously pushed back against that notion. There’s still some debate over the handling of vesting options — particularly those that are triggered by reaching a set number of games pitched or plate appearances over the life of multiple seasons. The two sides also must determine how those options would be treated in the event that the season is canceled at any point due to health concerns.

There aren’t too many vesting options in MLB this year, although some of the notable ones include:

  • Jon Lester, LHP, Cubs: Lester’s $25MM mutual option ($10MM buyout) for the 2021 season would become guaranteed with 200 innings pitched in a normal season.
  • J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees: Happ’s $17MM club option for the 2021 season would’ve become guaranteed upon making 27 starts or totaling 165 innings in 2020.
  • Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals: Miller’s $12MM club option for 2021 would have been guaranteed if he totaled 110 games between 2019-20. As Rosenthal explores, there are various ways to interpret how many more games he’d need to pitch to trigger that option — some more beneficial to Miller and others to the Cardinals.
  • Charlie Morton, RHP, Rays: Morton’s option is another that comes with a multi-year criteria. His contract calls for a $15MM club option in 2021 if he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list between 2019-20. The option value decreases if he spends additional time on the injured list. Morton avoided the IL entirely last year. Unlike Miller, who surely hopes the number of appearances he needs to make in 2020 can be prorated, it’d be beneficial to Morton for that number (30) to remain as is. That seems unlikely, but the disparity between the clauses of Miller and Morton illustrates that this isn’t exactly straightforward for the player side. The value of his option
  • Kelvin Herrera, RHP, White Sox: Herrera, too, needed 110 games between 2019-20 for his $10MM club option to become guaranteed. He pitched in 57 games last year, leaving him 53 shy of his target.
  • Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies: Davis’ $15MM mutual option would’ve converted to a $15MM player option in the event that he finished 30 games. He’d only need to finish out 11-12 games in the shortened 2020 season if the two sides go with a strictly prorated interpretation of the qualifiers.
  • Bryan Shaw, RHP, Rockies: Shaw has the same 110-game target for 2019-20 that Miller and Herrera have. He pitched 70 times in 2019 and needed just 40 appearances in 2020 to lock in a $9MM salary for the 2021 campaign.
  • Jake McGee, LHP, Rockies: With 60 games pitched or 40 games finished in 2020, McGee would’ve locked in a $9MM salary for the 2021 season. His contract also allowed the option to vest with a with 110 games between 2019-20, but he only pitched in 45 contests last year.
  • Stephen Vogt, C, Diamondbacks: Vogt’s contract included a $3MM club option that not only vests but increases to a $3.5MM base upon starting 45 games and appearing n a total of 75 games overall.
  • Dee Gordon, 2B/SS/OF, Mariners: Gordon would’ve been guaranteed a $14MM salary for the 2021 season with 600 plate appearances this year. That, of course, was extremely unlikely in the first place, though.

Beyond those options, there are myriad escalator clauses throughout baseball that could be impacted by the shortened schedule. It’s fairly common for club options and/or future salaries to be boosted by steady performance — particularly among players returning from injury. Take Dellin Betances, for instance. His contract with the Mets calls for the value of next year’s $6MM player option to increase by $800K upon pitching in 40 games. He’d receive additional $1MM boosts to that figure for appearing in 50, 60 and 70 games apiece.

The league and the union are also still discussing potential retention bonuses for six-year veterans on non-guaranteed deals. In a typical year, any player with six-plus years of service who finished the preceding season on a 40-man roster qualifies as an Article XX(B) free agent. Such players must either be added to the 40-man roster, released five days prior to Opening Day or paid a $100K retention bonus to remain with the club in the minor leagues. Many players in that situation are released and quickly re-signed to a new minor league deal, but that won’t be possible in 2020 due to the fact that players who are removed from a team’s 60-man pool become ineligible to return to that team this season.

Cardinals Announce Initial 60-Man Player Pool

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Today marks the deadline for teams to submit to Major League Baseball their initial spring training player pools, which can comprise up to 60 players. Players are not eligible to participate in either a spring training or regular season game until they are included in the pool. Teams are free to change the makeup of the pools as they see fit. However, players removed from a team’s 60-man (for reasons unrelated to injury, suspension, etc.) must be exposed to other organizations via trade or waivers.

Not all players within a team’s pool are ticketed for MLB playing time, of course. Most teams will include well-regarded but still far-off prospects as a means of getting them training reps with no intention of running them onto a major league diamond this season. A comprehensive review of 2020’s unique set of rules can be found here.

The Cardinals’ initial player pool consists of the following players.

Right-handed pitchers

Left-handed pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Cardinals Sign Dominican Prospect Edwin Nunez

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The Cardinals have signed international amateur free agent Edwin Nunez for $525K, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.  This deal comes as part of the extended 2019-20 international signing period, which will run until October 15 and was re-opened again on Friday when the transactions freeze was lifted.

Like all other business in baseball, the international market was halted by the league’s COVID-19 shutdown, meaning Nunez had to wait a little longer to sign with his first big league organization.  Nunez’s entry into the pros had already been delayed a year, as the league declared him ineligible to sign during the 2018-19 international prospect period due to a discrepancy with his given age.  Nunez became eligible in April, and is now listed as 18 years old.

Despite his late entry into the signing period, Badler writes that Nunez “had emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in the 2019-20 class.”  A hard-throwing righty from the Dominican Republic, Nunez already has a high-90s fastball that has hit the 100mph threshold on occasion.  It isn’t out of the question that even more velocity could be unlocked, given Nunez’s young age and the potential for more bulk added to his 6’3″, 185-pound frame.  Beyond that big fastball, Nunez also has a largely untested changeup and a somewhat “inconsistent” curveball.

The Most Stacked Lineup Of The Millennium Missed The Playoffs

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With MVPs Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts sharing a lineup with thumpers like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager, the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is stacked. That’s five players who have proved capable of posting 5-6 WAR seasons. We can even include A.J. Pollock in that group (6.8 fWAR in 2015) if we’re being generous – though it would open some eyes to see Pollack produce at that level again (even for a 60-game span). The ceiling hasn’t been set on youngsters like Will Smith and Gavin Lux, who could very well enter that elite territory with a best-case development future. There’s no denying that the Dodgers have a loaded lineup – but has there been a more MVP-loaded lineup in recent history?

The most stacked lineup of the last twenty years belongs to an 85-win, 3rd place St. Louis Cardinals team from 2003. “Most-stacked,” of course, isn’t exactly an official metric, so let me define it. Fangraphs explains fWAR in their glossary by classifying a “good player” as worth 3-4 fWAR, an “All-Star” to be worth 4-5 fWAR, and a “superstar” as worth 5-6 fWAR. But for the “most-stacked” lineup, we want the cream of the crop. Fangraphs classifies MVPs as those worth 6+ fWAR in a given season, so I went looking for the lineup with the most “MVPs”, and I found the unequivocal champ with the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.

Not only did the Cardinals carry four MVP-caliber bats that season, but they’re the only team since 2000 to accomplish that feat. There have been four other teams since 2000 with three bats in the lineup worth 6+ fWAR (2004 Orioles, 2003 Braves, 2004 Cardinals, 2011 Red Sox) – but only Tony La Russa’s Cardinals fielded a quartet of such players.

Albert Pujols (9.5 fWAR), Jim Edmonds (6.3 fWAR), Edgar Renteria (6.3 fWAR), and Scott Rolen (6.2 fWAR) each put up an “MVP-like” seasons in 2003. The 23-year-old Pujols would have been a shoo-in to snag the actual NL MVP, but that was the era of supernova Barry Bonds, who won his third of four consecutive MVPs (10.2 fWAR) that season. 

The Cardinals finished 5th in the majors in runs scored with 876, second in total fWAR on offense, fourth in wRC+. J.D. Drew, Tino Martinez, and Bo Hart were productive members of the lineup, So Taguchi gave them 59 plate appearances with a 109 wRC+, and Eduardo Perez (122 wRC+) was a successful power bat off the bench. Only at catcher did they really struggle offensively, where Mike Matheny hit .252/.320/.356 to total 0.4 fWAR while starting 121 games behind the dish. In short, the offense did its part. 

Unfortunately, the entirety of the Cardinals pitching staff mustered just 7.3 fWAR. They finished 19th in ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 26th in home runs per nine innings. The bullpen was a particular disaster, finishing the season dead last in the majors with -1.8 fWAR. The rotation boasted legitimate arms in Woody Williams, Matt Morris, and less so, Brett Tomko. Dan Haren made an okay major league debut with 14 starts and a 5.08 ERA/4.57 FIP. 

That said, they could have done without the 55 starts from Garrett Stephenson, in what would be his last dash as an MLB hurler, Sterling Hitchcock in his second-to-last season, 40-year-old Jeff Fassero, and Jason Simontacchi, who was coming off a surprisingly decent rookie season at age-28. 

Giving 34 percent of their starts to suboptimal contributors didn’t pave the runway for the bullpen to take flight, but the relief crew struggled all their own. In particular, the main culprits were (again) Fassero (56 games, 6.52 ERA/6.13 FIP), Dustin Hermanson (23 games, 5.46 ERA/5.49 FIP), Russ Springer (17 games, 8.31 ERA/8.97 FIP), and Esteban Yan (39 games, 6.02 ERA/5.59 FIP). It didn’t help that injuries limited closer Jason Isringhausen to 40 games and 22 saves. He would otherwise anchor the Cardinals’ bullpens of that era. 

The 2003 Cardinals paint a picture of the difficulties in team-building. Four monster seasons making up half their everyday lineup, and still the Cardinals only managed to eke out a third-place finish. They underperformed their Pythagorean record, but only by three wins. The Cubs won the division with exactly 88 wins, overperforming their Pythagorean record by – you guessed it – three wins.

Things can go right – so right – in any given season, and it still might not be enough to counterbalance what goes wrong. That’s not to say that the 2020 Dodgers are in trouble – but their spot in the postseason is hardly assured. The ’03 Cardinals had the most MVP-level bats of any team in the past 20 years, and yet it was only enough for 85 wins. The margin for error will only be smaller in a short season.

Of course, here’s the other funny little part of baseball. Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Renteria couldn’t power their way to the postseason in 2003, but the foundation in St. Louis was solid. They did reach the postseason in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006. La Russa’s Cardinals capped off the run with a World Series title. That season, they finished with 83 wins, one less than the “disappointment” their stacked lineup produced in 2003.

So the most-stacked lineup of the millennium missed the playoffs, and the “worst” division winner of the millennium won the World Series. If that’s not a good primer for the chaos to come in a short season, I don’t know what is. 

Cardinals Sign 63rd Overall Pick Tink Hence

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  • The Cardinals announced that they’ve reached an agreement with Arkansas high school right-hander Tink Hence, the 63rd overall pick. Financial details are unknown, but the recommended slot value checks in at $1,076,300. The Cardinals acquired the Competitive Balance Round B selection they used on Hence in a noteworthy trade with the Rays in January. Hence entered the draft as the 123rd-ranked prospect available at Baseball America. He committed to the University of Arkansas before the draft.

Cardinals To Pay Minor Leaguers Through End Of Season

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  • The Cardinals have become the latest team to make a financial commitment to their minor leaguers until the conclusion of the campaign, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced Wednesday they’ll pay their minors talent $400 a week through August, the end of a season those individuals likely won’t be able to play.

Cardinals Sign Second-Rounder Masyn Winn

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  • The Cardinals announced the signing of second-round pick Masyn Winn on Wednesday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. Winn will earn $2.1MM, which is above the $1,338,500 recommended slot value of his pick (No. 54), per Jim Callis of MLB.com. Winn, a Texas high school shortstop/right-hander who committed to Arkansas before the draft, is a legitimate prospect on both ends, according to Callis.

John Brebbia Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Cardinals right-handed reliever John Brebbia underwent Tommy John surgery June 3, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak revealed Wednesday (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

Mozeliak announced that Brebbia will begin the season on the injured list, but considering TJ recovery tends to take 12 to 15 months, he looks like a shoo-in to miss all of 2020 and at least some portion of next year. It’s awful news for Brebbia and the Cardinals, for whom he has offered strong production since making his major league debut a few seasons ago.

Now 30 years old, Brebbia has been a quality scrapheap pickup for the Cardinals, who took him from the Diamondbacks in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft. He broke into the majors in 2017 and has since logged a 3.14 ERA/3.39 FIP across 175 innings. Brebbia totaled a career-best 72 2/3 frames last season, when he survived a minuscule 26.9 percent groundball rate to record a 3.59 ERA/3.13 FIP with 10.78 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9.

While Brebbia’s on a near-minimum salary this year, he’s slated to go through the arbitration process for the first time next winter. The Cardinals can control him through 2023, but whether they’ll do so will depend in large part on if he’s able to bounce back from this procedure.

Cardinals Sign First-Rounder Jordan Walker

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The Cardinals have announced the signing of first-round draft selection Jordan Walker (h/t Mark Saxon of The Athletic, on Twitter). He’ll forego his commitment to Duke University.

The Georgia high school third baseman will receive a $2.9MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). He was taken with the 21st overall selection, which came with a $3.13MM slot allocation.

Many draft watchers graded Walker as an early second-round player, but he went a fair bit higher to the Cards. Keith Law of The Athletic had the highest overall grade (#29). That viewpoint is presumably reflected in Walker’s signing value.

That’s not to say there’s a lack of excitement surrounding the big and athletic high schooler. Walker is a fleet-footed masher with a powerful throwing arm. The questions creep in with Walker’s relatively undeveloped hit tool. Here’s how MLB.com frames the situation:

“There are some mixed opinions on his hitting ability because his size creates a naturally long swing and he needs to improve his ability to recognize breaking balls. But he also shows some feel for hitting and the ability to make adjustments, so he should make enough contact to tap into his pop.”

It sounds as if Walker will be a fun player for Cards fans to watch as he develops. There’s upside aplenty, even if he ultimately moves to right field or first base.

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