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Francisco Lindor’s Slow Start Is Not Abnormal

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This post is brought to you by Stathead.  We use Stathead, powered by Baseball Reference, to find interesting stats in our articles. Stathead has easy-to-use discovery tools to take you inside the BR database. Try it for free today!

The 2024 season is now rolling along, which means it’s time to wildly overreact to small samples of data. Previously unremarkable players are suddenly looking like Hall-of-Famers while reliably good players now seem to be washed.

A midseason slump is easy to dismiss when you look up and the full season stats still seem good. Maybe a slumping hitter is still hitting .265 or a pitcher that just got lit up still has an earned run average around 4.00. But early on, a batting average that starts with a zero or an ERA that has two digits before the decimal place can be a cause for concern.

Thankfully, Stathead has an amazing tool to help put this all into proper context. Using the Span Finder, we can search a player’s entire career to see if they have ever had a previous slump that compares to what’s currently happening. Let’s use Francisco Lindor as an example.

It’s no secret that Lindor hasn’t exactly been his best self so far this year. His struggles became such a talking point amid fans of the Mets that some of them got together on social media and decided to support Lindor with a standing ovation, mirroring how Phillies’ fans responded when Trea Turner was struggling last year.

Through 15 games, Lindor has just eight hits in 62 at-bats for a .129 batting average. Just two of those eight hits have been for extra bases, one double and one home run. His batting line is just  .129/.236/.194 and his on-base plus slugging is just .430, well below his career mark of .810.

Now that Lindor is 30 years old, it might be tempting to consider this the start of some age-based decline, but Span Finder shows us that he has been here before. Doing a custom search for every 15-game stretch of Lindor’s career and sorting by ascending OPS, we get this…

  • September 10 to September 26 of 2016: .309 OPS
  • September 11 to September 28 of 2016: .337 OPS
  • September 9 to September 24 of 2016: .340 OPS
  • April 17 to May 5 of 2021: .388 OPS
  • October 1 of 2023 to April 13 of 2024: .392 OPS
  • September 8 to September 23 of 2016: .404 OPS
  • April 17 of 2021 to May 3 of 2021: .414 OPS
  • September 29 of 2017 to April 11 of 2018: .429 OPS
  • March 29 to April 14 of 2024: .430 OPS

Lindor is clearly in one of the worst stretches of his career right now, but it’s not totally without precedent. He slumped real bad at the end of the 2016 season when he was 22 years old. Despite that awful finish, he still hit .301/.358/.435 on the year overall for a 106 OPS+. Cleveland made the playoffs that year and Lindor immediately put that slump behind him, hitting .310/.355/.466 in the postseason as the club went all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, even going to extra innings in that classic game.

Given that there were also some notable struggles early on in 2018 and 2021 mixed in there, it seems fair to conclude that Lindor is performing within the range of previous outcomes. It’s clearly not ideal for him or the Mets that he’s started the season in this hole, but it’s one he has climbed out of before. Throughout the ups and downs of his career, he has hit .272/.340/.470 for a 116 OPS+.

That bat, along with Lindor’s speed and defense, are why the Mets gave him a ten-year, $341MM extension a few years ago. That deal pays Lindor $32MM annually through the 2031 season, so it’s good for the Mets that his current slump isn’t totally unprecedented.

The Opener: Valdez, Gray, MLBTR Chat

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As the 2024 MLB regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Valdez to be evaluated:

Astros southpaw Framber Valdez was scratched from his start yesterday due to elbow soreness, becoming the latest player of note in the league to suffer an elbow-related injury scare. Per Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle, the lefty has departed the team’s road trip and is set to return to Houston today for further evaluation. Kawahara adds that both manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown downplayed the seriousness of Valdez’s injury, with Espada emphasizing that Valdez has not yet been placed on the injured list. If Valdez misses time, he’d join Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia Jr., and Lance McCullers Jr. as Astros starters on the injured list, though Verlander could be nearing a return later this month.

Right-hander Blair Henley was called up to take the mound in place of Valdez yesterday, but he allowed five runs while recording just one out against the Rangers. Fellow righty Spencer Arrighetti could be an alternative option to take the ball next time Valdez’s spot in the rotation comes up if he’s not cleared to take the ball and Houston decides not to stick with Henley.

2. Gray to make Cardinals debut:

The Cardinals are expected to activate right-hander Sonny Gray from the injured list today to make his club debut in St. Louis against the Phillies. The 34-year-old signed with the club on a three-year, $75MM deal this offseason on the heels of a dominant 2023 campaign with the Twins where he led the majors with a 2.83 FIP and finished second to Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll get a tough assignment in his Cards debut, taking the mound opposite Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. St. Louis is surely hoping that Gray can help the club turn its rotation around. The group’s collective 4.85 ERA ranks 20th in MLB, and their 5.48 FIP ranks 29th, ahead of only the Blue Jays, through the young 2024 season’s first 11 games.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

The 2024 season is now in full swing, and some clubs have gotten off to surprisingly strong starts while plenty of expected contenders have struggled to open the year. If you have questions regarding your favorite club’s start to the campaign, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a live chat with readers this afternoon at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after it is completed.

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ThriveFantasy Offering Free $1,000 Opening Day Contest

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