Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani has been putting together an MVP season at the plate and on the bases lately. Yesterday’s epic game saw him go 6-6 with three homers, ten runs batted in and two steals as he finished building the 50/50 club for himself.

He has done that while also rehabbing from last year’s Tommy John surgery on the side and has made enough progress that manager Dave Roberts recently left the door open to Ohtani taking the mound in the playoffs. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman pushed back on that possibility yesterday, telling Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that Ohtani is “not really an option.”

Ohtani has recently thrown six bullpen sessions but Friedman notes that a pitcher would normally get to that point in late January while preparing for a normal season. In other words, still a couple of months away from regular season starts. Friedman goes on to point out that following the normal timeline would have Ohtani doing live bullpens in mid to late October.

Ohtani and the team are soon having a meeting about next steps, but it’s a meeting that has been planned for months and isn’t about postseason pitching. “We aren’t even thinking about that right now,” Friedman said. “Again, this is like January for him. He’s just barely a year out from Tommy John.” The meeting is more about whether to continue to live BPs in October or put his pitching on pause during the postseason, with a resumption in November.

“The whole meeting is about how we handle his rehab to have him in the best position to be ready to go in ’25 while also taking the least amount of toll on him in ’24 because he will have an important job in October as it is,” Friedman said. “Okay – if you suspend it then and do it in November, is that enough time or do you ramp him up and have him a little bit later (at the start of next season)? That’s the stuff we have to get into.”

At this point, it’s generally best not to doubt Ohtani, who has a strong tendency to silence naysayers. But he is human, despite some evidence to the contrary, and the timelines for returning to the mound this year are ambitious. It was September 19 of last year that he went under the knife, almost exactly a year ago. If often takes 14 months or longer to fully come back even if there are no setbacks, so returning in the next month would be on the fast side.

This is also the second Tommy John of Othani’s career, as he also underwent the procedure in October of 2018. He didn’t pitch at all in 2019 and then only made two brief appearances in the shortened 2020 season. Returning from the second such operation is generally more challenging than doing it the first time, which should give Ohtani and the Dodgers extra incentive to play things cautious.

The idea of Ohtani coming back may have been extra tantalizing for some fans because of the ongoing injury troubles for Dodger starters. Last year’s club won 100 games but they limped into the playoffs with an injury-ravaged rotation consisting of Bobby Miller, Lance Lynn and Clayton Kershaw, the latter of whom was clearly battling through shoulder problems. The Diamondbacks laid waste to the Dodgers and swept them out of the playoffs.

This year, the Dodgers have lost Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan and Dustin May to season-ending surgeries. Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone are both on the IL with arm problems and are unlikely to make it back in October. Tony Gonsolin and Kershaw are also on the IL but seem to have some chance of being factors in the playoffs. Gonsolin is currently rehabbing from his own 2023 Tommy John surgery while Kershaw is trying to work through a bone spur in his left big toe.

That leaves the Dodgers currently with Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Landon Knack and Walker Buehler as their rotation at this moment. Flaherty has been great this season but had some back problems with the Tigers earlier in the year, enough to reportedly scuttle a deal to the Yankees before the Dodgers swooped in. Yamamoto missed over three months due to a rotator cuff strain and isn’t fully stretched out yet. He made just two rehab appearances before being activated and has since made two major league starts of four innings each. The club is also still planning to give him more than four days of rest between each outing, as they have done all year. Knack has good results so far but just 61 big league innings under his belt. Buehler has a 5.54 ERA on the campaign.

The idea of Ohtani charging over the horizon on his steed to save the day would obviously be exciting but perhaps too much to ask for. Even a relief role would have appeal, bringing back memories of Ohtani striking out Mike Trout to close out the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Perhaps there’s some scenario where Ohtani, Friedman, Roberts and other staff members get together and the plans change as Ohtani supersedes expectations once again, but it’s notable that the club’s chief baseball decision maker is throwing cold water on the idea.

Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has just been a one-way superstar this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and hasn’t been able to pitch at all for the Dodgers. The club has long planned for him to focus on serving as the designated hitter while also rehabbing his elbow for a return to the mound in 2025, but it seems there’s a possibility of Ohtani at least doing some pitching in October. Manager Dave Roberts said in recent days that there’s a non-zero chance Ohtani pitches in the postseason, a situation that Bill Plunkett examined yesterday for the Orange County Register.

As noted by Plunkett, Ohtani has been gradually building the intensity of his throwing program throughout the year. He recently progressed to mound work and has thrown from the hill six times now, with his most recent session getting to 25 pitches and a velocity of 93 miles per hour. The next step will be Ohtani facing hitters in live batting practice, which will occur in the coming weeks.

Ohtani is almost at the one-year mark from his surgery, which was announced on September 19 of last year. Generally, coming back from UCL surgeries takes a bit longer than that, but it’s not unheard of for a guy to be returning on this sort of timeline. However, pitchers undergoing the normal rehab process don’t do so while serving as elite hitters. Ohtani is pushing towards an unprecedented 50-50 season, currently at 47 homers and 48 stolen bases. His overall performance is enough that he’s strongly in the mix to be named Most Valuable Player in a few weeks, all while he’s been undergoing his throwing program in the background.

“Maybe it’s a good thing that he has the ability to disconnect, compartmentalize and go hit and do all the things he’s doing on the offensive side,” pitching coach Mark Prior said. “Where normally as pitchers, you’re kind of ingrained with the same monotony. You can kind of get bogged down in some of the – every ache, soreness; good, bad, indifferent throw. Maybe it gives him a chance to actually be free and relaxed. But it’s still pretty impressive.”

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Ohtani’s rehab is remarkable, since that seems to be how he attacks every baseball challenge that comes his way, but it’s now going to put the Dodgers in position to make a difficult choice. As noted by Plunkett, the club has always planned to shut down the throwing program during the postseason but Ohtani’s progress might open the door for them to pivot. “We’re all going to circle up, but that’s right,” Roberts said, acknowledging that conversations are going to be had about changing the plans for Ohtani. “We’ll see. We’ll see.”

What happens in the next few weeks will surely depend on multiple factors. Ohtani will have to feel good physically without any notable setbacks, while he and his reps will naturally have to be comfortable with him returning to the mound before the winter is out.

The Dodgers will also have to keep playing long enough for Ohtani to become a factor, which would presumably become more likely if they stay alive deeper into October. Whether the Dodgers would try to stretch out Ohtani or simply have him pitch shorter outings from the bullpen is unknown and perhaps something they haven’t even decided upon yet.

The rotation could certainly use the help. The club has lost River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan and Dustin May to season-ending surgeries. Tyler Glasnow is on the injured list and probably won’t make it back this year. Clayton Kershaw and Gavin Stone are also on the IL with uncertain futures. Tony Gonsolin, like Ohtani, is trying to return from a Tommy John surgery late in 2023.

For now, the rotation consists of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Landon Knack, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, with each of those guys having some question marks. Flaherty dealt with back problems while with the Tigers, enough that the Yankees reportedly balked at acquiring him prior to the deadline, which allowed the Dodgers to swoop in and get a deal done. Yamamoto missed roughly three months due to a rotator cuff strain and only just came off the IL a few days ago. Buehler and Miller both have rough results on the year. Knack has some decent numbers but in just 56 major league innings thus far in his career.

Assuming Flaherty and Yamamoto stay healthy, that gives the Dodgers a solid one-two for a playoff rotation, but things get trickier from there. If Stone, Kershaw or Gonsolin can become factors in the next few weeks, that would obviously help.

So, too, would a healthy Ohtani, but it’s perhaps too much to ask for him to be fully stretched out. The Dodgers have a good chance of securing a bye through the first playoff round. They are currently two games behind the Phillies in the National League, but two games up on the Brewers for the second bye. In the division, the Padres are the closest club to the Dodgers at 3.5 games back. But even if they do get a bye and have that extra time, it may not be enough for Ohtani to be a realistic option for a starter’s role.

It’s not totally unprecedented for a club to deploy bullpen games in the playoffs, so perhaps there’s a chance the Dodgers decide to have Ohtani working as a bulk pitcher, hitting some sort of innings or pitch count limit while multiple other pitchers help with the rest of that game. This could effectively work as a sort unofficial rehab assignment, as he gradually builds his workload throughout the club’s playoff run. This would be a more extreme version of Yamamoto’s recent return, as he came off the IL without being fully stretched out. He only made two rehab appearances of two innings each before returning to the big league club, tossing 59 pitches over four innings on Tuesday.

If the Dodgers deploy Ohtani as a straightforward reliever, he could provide some value to the bullpen and it’s something that he at least has some small amount of experience with, memorably closing out the 2023 World Baseball Classic by striking out his then-teammate with the Angels Mike Trout. Ohtani had been working as a starter earlier in the tournament but came out of the bullpen for the final game rather than starting on short rest. He also had done a bit of relief work in Japan prior to coming over to MLB.

Though his track record as a reliever is short, there’s little reason to doubt that he could provide value in the role, as starting pitchers often move to the bullpen during the postseason and serve as difference makers. There are more off-days in the playoffs compared to the regular season, allowing managers to lean on their best pitchers more often and in different shapes than they do otherwise.

Of course, the Dodgers will have to weigh any short-term benefits against any long-term risk to Ohtani’s arm. He and the club agreed to a ten-year contract, with nine seasons still to go after this one. Ohtani previously underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018, so managing his health after a second major elbow surgery will be important for the Dodgers in 2025 and beyond. On the other hand, flags fly forever and the Dodgers haven’t hoisted after a full season since 1988. Expectations for the club are sky high after a decade-plus of dominance in the regular season but playoff struggles, so there might be a significant temptation to explore all options and leave everything on the table.

There are still many unknowns in the situation and it’s possible that it will remain fluid for the next six weeks. For now, it seems Ohtani will continue throwing and then he and the club will decide how to proceed as time goes on. “Shohei’s on board with just continuing his rehab process,” Roberts said to MLB Network Radio a few days ago about Ohtani coming back in the playoffs. (X link with audio). “And I wouldn’t put it past him to have an eye on that. And we’ll just see how it plays out.”