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Mariners, Kyle Seager Likely To Part Ways?

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All five players carry their share of question marks, which is what will make the shortstop market so fascinating to observe as the many teams in need of shortstop (and overall infield) help will be competing for these names at the top of the market.  Unsurprisingly, the 11 evaluators cite the Yankees and Tigers as likely to land one of the big five shortstops, and teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, and Angels could all be in the mix.  In an additional detail on Semien, there is some feeling that he would like to remain with the Blue Jays, while other evaluators believe the Bay Area native would prefer to play with a team closer to home.

  • “The ship has sailed” on Kyle Seager returning to the Mariners, The Athletic’s Corey Brock opines as part of a reader mailbag.  Brock feels both the team and the veteran third baseman are ready to move on, seemingly precluding any chance of either the M’s exercising their $20MM club option on Seager for 2022, or Seager being open to re-signing with Seattle at a lower price.  Seager seemed to hint at a departure a few weeks ago, when he said that he hadn’t heard anything from the team about the option, and also noted that he hadn’t personally spoken with GM Jerry DiPoto in several years.

AL Notes: Mariners, Blue Jays, Hernandez, Indians

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The offseason has already begun for 13 American League teams, with plenty of speculation about what some contenders and would-be contenders might have planned for winter moves.  The latest buzz from the AL…

  • The Mariners seemed poised for their most aggressive offseason in years, and The Athletic’s Corey Brock and MLBTR’s own Steve Adams took a look at the potential shape of Seattle’s next additions.  The proposal is a major signing (i.e. Marcus Semien) and then a few other prominent but somewhat lower-level free agents (such as Anthony DeSclafani, Jonathan Villar, Alex Wood), augmented with some trades to help bench depth and left-handed bullpen depth.  It remains to be seen whether or not the M’s will target any of these specific players, yet an offseason like this would certainly make Seattle a better team in 2022, and still leave payroll room for any other upgrades at the trade deadline.
  • Semien’s future was also one of several Blue Jays-related topics covered by The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm in his latest reader mailbag, with Chisholm opining that both Semien and Robbie Ray will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Should Semien leave, the Jays could address the hole at second base simply by moving their third base candidates (Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal) over to the keystone, and then acquiring a new third baseman.  In response to another question, Chisholm believes the Jays will probably hold off on extension talks with Teoscar Hernandez simply because the team is prioritizing more near-term moves, like adding more salary this winter and exploring a long-term deal with Jose Berrios.  Hernandez is still controlled through the 2023 season, and the Blue Jays could be content to just go year-to-year with Hernandez since outfield replacements are comparatively easy to find, even if few hitters at any position have equaled Hernandez’s production over the last two-plus seasons.
  • Speaking of finding outfielders, the Indians have long been looking for some stability on the grass, and the Tribe seemed to solidify at least one position when they acquired Myles Straw from the Astros at the trade deadline.  That leaves the corner outfield spots still to be addressed, and “since the summer months, the front office has fixated on consolidating its prospect capital in an attempt to land an established outfielder in a trade,” The Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes.  Cleveland would likely prefer to work out that trade sooner rather than later, as November 19 is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Tribe have a surplus of players who might require 40-man placement.  Whether or not an early trade can be found, however, isn’t clear, as Meisel notes that some around baseball feel teams will generally hold back on any major moves until there is more clarity about the next collective bargaining agreement.

Yusei Kikuchi Likely To Exercise Player Option For 2022

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The Mariners’ original signing of Yusei Kikuchi provided the left-hander with one of the more unconventional option scenarios in recent memory. The team can exercise a four-year, $66MM extension option after the current season, and if the Mariners turn down that effective extension clause, he’ll have a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season.

It looked like an intriguing dilemma for the Mariners midway through the season, when Kikuchi had made the All-Star team and was in the midst of what looked like a breakout campaign. However, the left-hander faded down the stretch to the extent that it now looks likelier that the Mariners will decline their portion of the option. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that if the Mariners indeed decline to pick up the additional four years of Kikuchi, the pitcher plans to exercise his portion of the deal, setting him up for a fourth season in Seattle and a $13MM salary.

Back in early July, I took a lengthy look at the situation at what was perhaps the peak point of Kikuchi’s season. At the time, he carried a 3.18 ERA with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 53.8 percent grounder rate. Kikuchi’s average fastball jumped immensely from 2019 in his second and third big league seasons, and he was missing bats more than ever with career-best command. He’d held opponents to three or fewer runs in 13 of 15 starts and rattled off a 2.33 ERA over his past 11 starts — averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing along the way.

Things almost immediately took a turn for the worse, as Kikuchi yielded a combined 12 runs over his next two starts and never fully regained his footing. There were still some strong starts mixed in along the way, including seven shutout frames against the Astros on Aug. 31, but Kikuchi pitched to a collective 6.22 ERA over his final 14 outings. His strikeout rate dipped slightly (23.3 percent), his walk rate rose (10.3 percent) and his ground-ball rate plummeted from that 53.8 percent mark all the way down to 41.7 percent. Unsurprisingly, the huge uptick on balls hit in the air against Kikuchi prompted his home-run rate to spike as well (1.70 HR/9 in those final 14 starts).

The end result doesn’t necessarily look that bad on paper. Kikuchi totaled 157 innings and notched a 4.41 ERA with a roughly average strikeout rate, a worse-than-average walk rate and an above-average ground-ball rate. Taken in its entirety, it was a respectable overall season. And if Kikuchi had flipped things around, starting with those ugly 14 starts before more or less dominating in his final 15, we’d be viewing the option decision quite differently even though the end results would look exactly the same.

There’s a case to be made that perhaps Kikuchi could exceed that $13MM he’s guaranteed on the player option by declining and seeking a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate. We’ve seen plenty of two-year contracts in the $16-20MM range for veteran arms with comparable bottom-line numbers and less-impressive combinations of strikeout rate and ground-ball tendencies. That said, he likely wouldn’t exceed that $13MM salary by much, so it’s not a huge surprise that on the heels of a dismal second half, he’d lock that salary in and hope to position himself for a stronger trip to the market in the 2022-23 offseason.

Looking to the Mariners’ payroll, they may not consider paying Kikuchi $13MM next year to be ideal, but it’s hardly a backbreaker. The only guaranteed contracts on the books are Marco Gonzales ($5.5MM), Ken Giles ($5MM in what will be his return season from 2020 Tommy John surgery), Chris Flexen ($2.75MM) and Evan White ($1.4MM). They hold a $20MM club option on Kyle Seager that Divish and others have suggested is likely to be bought out, and the Mariners will also pay $3.75MM to the Mets under the previous Robinson Cano trade. They’ll be looking at arbitration raises for Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford, Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo, among others, but Haniger’s $3.01MM salary from 2021 is the highest starting point for any of those raises. None should break the bank.

Seattle only opened the 2021 season with a payroll in the $74MM range, but from 2017-19 the M’s averaged an Opening Day payroll of roughly $152.9MM. Recently promoted president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already said that ownership has authorized him to increase payroll next year, and with such a light slate of commitments on the books, a returning Kikuchi at $13MM shouldn’t prove too much of a detriment.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Upcoming Offseason

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In a chat with reporters today, including Corey Brock of The Athletic, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said that he has the blessing of club chairman John Stanton increase spending this winter. Dipoto stopped short of committing to anything, however, making sure to keep his words vague.

“We do have payroll flexibility, and we’re going to use it to make the team better,” Dipoto said. He continued, “It’s incumbent on us to go add where we can add and improve where we think we can improve. That’s not lost on us. We’ll visit every avenue to do that…We’re just looking to add talent.”

Of course, it makes a lot of sense that the Mariners would be looking to open the proverbial checkbook this offseason, for a couple of reasons. For one thing, they’re coming off a surprise 90-win campaign that saw them stay in the AL Wild Card race until the final day of the season. And secondly, this year’s payroll was less than half of what it was just a few seasons ago.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team payroll got as high a notch above $160MM in 2018. It was after that year’s 89-win campaign that Dipoto and the Mariners famously, or infamously, decided to strip down both the roster and payroll and start rebuilding again. That winter, they unloaded Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura and others, endured two straight losing seasons in 2019 and 2020, before opening this year’s campaign with a payroll under $75MM.

Potent bats will certainly be a primary target in the coming months. “We do want to make our lineup longer,” said Dipoto. “We would like to add offense.” In spite of their 90 wins, their 697 runs scored this season put them tied for 22nd in the majors in that category, and better than just three teams in the American League. (Royals, Orioles and Rangers.)

Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, Jarred Kelenic and Tom Murphy all got over 300 plate appearances with Seattle this season and posted below-average offensive numbers, by measure of wRC+. Seager is likely to depart in free agency, as it seems doubtful the club wants to pick up his $20MM option. That creates one obvious area of potential improvement. Abraham Toro has been floated as Seager’s possible heir at third base, but his wRC+ of 99 since coming over from the Astros matches Seager’s number on the year. If the Mariners want to improve on the infield, they’ll have lots of options, as the market has stars like Marcus Semien and Kris Bryant, as well as solid regulars such as Chris Taylor, Eduardo Escobar, Josh Harrison or Brad Miller.

The club will also be on the hunt for pitching, as Dipoto said it is “going to be a focus for us. The likelihood for us is it’s going to come as a starter.” Seattle’s rotation certainly has room for improvement, as it was fairly pedestrian this year, ranking 19th in ERA, 23rd in strikeout rate, 13th in walk rate and 22nd in WAR. They will also be losing deadline-pickup Tyler Anderson to free agency, leaving them with a rotation of Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. Yusei Kikuchi would have seemed like a lock to be in that group a few months ago, but had a terrible second half and got bumped from the rotation in September. The Mariners will likely decline their four-year option over him, but Kikuchi would still likely return in that scenario as he would then have a player option valued at $13MM. Whether they want to give him another shot or figure out another path forward remains to be seen. Prospects like Matt Brash, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock could help out eventually, but none of them have big league experience as of yet.

This year’s crop of free agent starters is loaded, with the top end featuring names like Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, though they could also aim for buy-low wildcards like Chris Archer, Zack Greinke or taking a flyer on James Paxton again.

Regardless of how it plays out, it should be interesting, as it always is when “Trader Jerry” is involved. Although, it seems there’s at least a chance that this offseason is focused less on wild trades and more on straightforward additions in free agency.

The Mariners’ Kyle Seager Decision

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The Mariners’ playoff push came up a couple games short, as the club dropped their final series of the year against the Angels to fall out of the Wild Card race. While some underlying indicators suggest the club was fortunate to finish 90-72 — they were outscored by 51 runs despite finishing eighteen games over .500 — it’s clear the focus is on contention moving forward. A few of Seattle’s top young talents have already gotten their feet wet in the big leagues, and more (including Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock) aren’t far behind.

On top of that young base, the M’s have a wide open payroll outlook. In the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Mariners enter the upcoming offseason with just $19.2MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2022. Assuming the club declines a four-year, $66MM package deal of team options on Yusei Kikuchi, the southpaw would have the right to exercise a $13MM player option. Even if Kikuchi returns on his option, that’d leave the Mariners with just north of $32MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter.

Their first tough offseason call will be whether to bring franchise cornerstone Kyle Seager back into the fold. The club holds a $20MM option on Seager’s services for 2022. That comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning it’ll be a net $18MM call for the front office. That raises the possibility that yesterday’s game was Seager’s final as a Mariner, and manager Scott Servais removed him from the game during the top of the ninth inning (once the Red Sox won and had officially eliminated Seattle from playoff contention) to give fans at T-Mobile Park an opportunity to show their appreciation for Seager’s time in the organization.

For his part, Seager told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times he hasn’t heard from the front office about the status of his option. In something of an eyebrow-raising comment, the veteran third baseman added he hasn’t spoken with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto “in years, probably four years. We don’t communicate at all. Not even passing by in the hall. If he spoke to my agent or anything like that, I haven’t heard anything.”

“It’s a weird spot to be in,” Seager elaborated (via Divish). “You kind of want to know, but unfortunately it’s out of our control. He’s not obligated or anything to tell me one way or the other. You have to prepare like you’re not going to be here. The writing’s been on the wall for a while. There’s nobody left from when I first got here. That’s not uncommon with a regime change. You bring in your own guys. You do your own thing.”

Reading between the lines, Seager’s comments would seem to suggest he’s anticipating the team buying his option out. Given Seager’s respected status in the organization and among the fan base, it’s something of a surprise to hear his contact with Dipoto is so infrequent. Still, Dipoto and his staff need not have a strong personal connection with Seager to judge picking up his option a worthy investment.

Seager has consistently been an above-average player on both sides of the ball throughout his career. He had an atypical 2021 season, posting a career-worst .212 batting average and his second-lowest on-base percentage (.285). But he also popped 35 home runs, a personal-best tally that tied him for seventeenth in MLB. Seager’s overall .212/.285/.438 line checked in at almost exactly league average by measure of wRC+, after accounting for Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark.

It was a similarly confounding year for Seager on the defensive side of the ball. Advanced metrics were split on his work, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as a bit above-average, while Defensive Runs Saved thought he was a little below par. He’s generally well-regarded with the glove and has posted strong defensive marks in the past, so it’d probably be fair to project Seager as an average or slightly above-average player at the hot corner in 2022.

A player who’s a tick above-average at all facets of the game certainly carries value, even if many teams wouldn’t jump to pay $18MM for that level of production. Seager, however, means a lot to the fanbase (as yesterday’s on-field celebration showed) and to many in that clubhouse. Shortstop J.P. Crawford teared up following yesterday’s game when speaking about Seager’s influence on him (video via Jomboy Media). Crawford’s only one player, of course, but it seems likely others in the clubhouse feel similarly connected to Seager, the franchise’s longest-tenured active player.

For a franchise with as clean a payroll outlook as the Mariners’, a case can be made for exercising Seager’s option, even if it seems a bit pricey on first glance. The club does have Abraham Toro as a potential in-house replacement at the hot corner, though. Toro came up through the Astros’ system as a third base prospect; the M’s moved him primarily to second base after acquiring him at the trade deadline, but the front office could slide Toro back to his natural position were they to buy Seager out. Doing so would require pursuing an upgrade at second base during a year in which the free agent options at the position are fairly weak, but Dipoto has already hinted at the possibility of an active offseason.

Mariners Reinstate Andres Munoz From 60-Day Injured List

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The Mariners made something of a surprise addition to their bullpen, reinstating right-hander Andres Munoz from the 60-day injured list.  In the corresponding move, veteran righty Joe Smith was placed on the injured list with an undisclosed issue.

Munoz hasn’t pitched in a big league game since September 15, 2019, when he was finishing up his rookie season with the Padres.  The 22-year-old’s career was put on hold due to Tommy John surgery in March 2020, and another setback this past spring added some extra time onto his rehab efforts.  Munoz finally began a minor league rehab assignment on September 17, and made one rookie ball appearance and three Triple-A appearances before getting the call to Seattle.

During his injury recovery, Munoz was dealt to the Mariners as part of their big seven-player swap with the Padres prior to the 2020 trade deadline.  He might now go from afterthought to instant hero if he can provide the M’s with anything in their late-season playoff push, though it remains to be seen exactly what Munoz can deliver after so much time on the shelf.

A Padres international signing out of Mexico in 2015, Munoz’s big league resume consists a 3.91 ERA over 23 innings in 2019, with a nice 30.9% strikeout rate but also a rather high 11.3% walk rate.  That has more or less been the story for Munoz throughout his minor league career, as his big high-90’s fastball has led to a lot of missed bats, though control has often been an issue.  This big velo is certainly an intriguing weapon for a team in the postseason hunt, as Munoz might be something of a secret weapon out of Seattle’s bullpen.

The lack of information about Smith’s IL placement would seem to indicate a COVID-related issue, but details aren’t known about the right-hander’s situation (a positive test, contact tracing, waiting on a test result, vaccine side effects, etc.), nor could any be forthcoming given the league-mandated privacy regulations about the COVID list.  If a quarantine is required, Smith will miss not just the rest of the regular season, but also likely the ALDS if the Mariners advanced that far.

After a brutal start to the season with the Astros, Smith has turned things around since being dealt to the Mariners at the deadline, posting a 2.00 ERA over his 18 innings in Seattle.  Smith has improved his strikeout rate since joining the M’s and has surrendered only one home run, as opposed to giving up four homers in his 21 2/3 frames in Houston.

Matt Andriese Elects Free Agency

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Matt Andriese has cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week.

The 32-year-old Andriese split this season between the Red Sox and M’s. He signed a one-year deal with Boston over the offseason but was released in August. Andriese landed a major league contract with Seattle not long after but was let go after just eight outings as a Mariner.

Andriese’s time with the Red Sox didn’t go as planned. While he started the season well, his performance dipped from May onwards and he finished his tenure there with just a 6.03 ERA across 37 1/3 innings. To his credit, he performed better during his brief look in Seattle. As a Mariner, Andriese tossed eleven innings of six-run (three earned) ball. He punched out twelve in that limited time while issuing just a pair of walks and racking up grounders on more than half the balls in play against him. That came in almost exclusively low-leverage outings, though, and Andriese wound up being the odd man out when the Mariners decided to bring up pitching prospect Matt Brash on Tuesday.

A seven-year veteran, Andriese has a fair amount of starting experience at the big league level. He’s worked in long relief over the past three seasons, although he was in consideration for a season-opening rotation job with Boston at one point. Clubs looking for depth in either the rotation or the bullpen could consider Andriese an option going into next season.

Mariners Select Matt Brash’s Contract, Designate Matt Andriese

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2:15PM: Brash’s contract has officially been selected.  Right-hander Matt Andriese was designated for assignement in the corresponding move.

11:17AM: The Mariners will select the contract of pitching prospect Matt Brash before today’s game with the Athletics, assistant GM Justin Hollander said in an interview with ESPN 710 radio (hat tip to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times).  The M’s have a space on their 40-man roster to accommodate Brash, though they’ll have to make another move to make room on the active roster.

Brash was seen yesterday working out with the Mariners, so speculation immediately arose that the 23-year-old right-hander was on the verge of his MLB debut.  Brash is expected to pitch today in relief of scheduled starter Tyler Anderson, who is throwing on only two days’ rest.

Joining a team in the thick of a playoff race is quite the step for a pitcher who hasn’t even made an appearance at the Triple-A level, let alone the majors.  Brash was promoted to Triple-A Tacoma on Friday but didn’t get a chance to pitch for Tacoma before getting the call to the Show.

A fourth-round pick for the Padres in the 2019 draft, Brash came to Seattle in the August 2020 trade deadline swap that saw Taylor Williams head to San Diego.  His first year in the Mariners organization has been a successful one, as Brash has a 2.31 ERA and an outstanding 35.06% strikeout rate over 97 1/3 innings (42 1/3 IP at High-A ball, 55 IP at Double-A), starting 19 of his 20 games.  Control is a bit of a red flag, as Brash has an 11.85% walk rate this season.

Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Brash within the Mariners’ top 10 prospects, with BA placing Brash ninth and Pipeline putting him right at the #10 spot.  Brash’s slider has taken steps forward this year but his fastball is his top pitch, clocking “up to 99 mph with high spin rates,” according to Baseball America’s scouting report.  That same report also notes that Brash drew some trade attention from other teams, so the Canadian’s breakout year has impressed evaluators beyond just Seattle’s organization.

The Mariners enter today’s action just 1.5 games back of the second AL wild card slot.  The Yankees hold the first wild card position and are a game ahead of the Red Sox, while the Blue Jays sit a game behind Boston (and a half-game ahead of Seattle).  The A’s are also still in the mix, 3.5 games back of Boston and with two remaining games in this series with the M’s.  This division rivalry has become surprisingly one-sided, however, as Seattle is 13-4 against Oakland this season.

With the postseason race this tight, the Mariners are turning to all available arms to help, even inexperienced youngsters like Brash.  Yusei Kikuchi had been the scheduled starter for today’s game, but Kikuchi has been so inconsistent over the last two months that the M’s are instead opting with the Anderson/Brash combination.  If Brash is able, he might be in line for more than one multi-inning appearance down the stretch (or, the Mariners hope, into the playoffs).

Mariners Outright Jose Marmolejos

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SEPTEMBER 17: Marmolejos has cleared waivers and been outrighted back to Tacoma, the team announced Friday. He has the right to elect free agency because he’d previously been outrighted in his career, although the team offered no indication he’s planning to do so.

SEPTEMBER 14: The Mariners announced they’ve designated corner outfielder/first baseman José Marmolejos for assignment. Fellow outfielder Jake Fraley has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list in a corresponding move. Marmolejos’ designation also opens a spot on Seattle’s 40-man roster, which now sits at 39.

Marmolejos has already been designated once this season, losing his roster spot back in May after hitting just .139/.266/.278 in his first 94 plate appearances. The 28-year-old cleared outright waivers and was sent to Triple-A Tacoma. He put together an incredible few months with the Rainiers, popping 23 home runs in just 303 plate appearances and mashing at a .360/.452/.700 clip. That earned him another look with the big league club, as the M’s reselected Marmolejos a couple weeks back.

Seattle has given Marmolejos a few starts since he was called back up, but he again struggled in a very small sample of 28 plate appearances. With Fraley ready to return to assume his customary left field role, the front office evidently determined there was no space on the big league club for Marmolejos. Because he’s out of minor league option years, Marmolejos had to again be exposed to waivers to be bumped from the active roster.

While Marmolejos cleared waivers a few months ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another club take a flier on him this time around thanks to his intervening demolishing of Triple-A pitching. Any claiming team would also have to keep the left-handed hitter on the active roster or place him back on waivers themselves.

Fraley has missed a little more than two weeks due to right shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old got off to a great start to the season but had cooled off significantly before landing on the shelf. He’s still been a productive player overall, though, sporting a season line of .213/.359/.388. It’s an unsightly batting average, to be sure, but Fraley’s massive 18.2% walk rate has helped him post an OBP nearly forty points higher than the .321 league average (excluding pitchers).

Seattle To Host All-Star Game In 2023

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TODAY: The league officially announced that the 2023 game will be in Seattle.

SEPTEMBER 14: Major League Baseball is finalizing plans to host 2023 All-Star festivities at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. MLB has yet to make an official announcement on the news.

Seattle has twice before hosted the All-Star Game — at the Kingdome in 1979 and at T-Mobile Park (then called Safeco Field) in 2001. The National League won the 1979 contest by a score of 7-6, while the American League took the 2001 game by a 4-1 margin.

Next year’s event will be hosted in Los Angeles. The Dodgers were initially announced as hosts for the 2020 festivities, but those were canceled during last year’s shortened season and will instead be made up in 2022. As Passan notes, the only other future All-Star host site known at this time is Philadelphia, which will get the event in 2026 as part of the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

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