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Mariners Sign Julio Rodriguez To Extension

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The Mariners have locked up one of the sport’s brightest young stars on a record-setting contract, announcing late Friday night they’ve signed Rookie of the Year candidate Julio Rodriguez to an extension. The deal, which begins this season, guarantees him $210MM over 12 years and contains both player and club options that can extend the length of the contract and push the total value as high as $470MM. Rodriguez, an Octagon client, also reportedly receives a full no-trade clause.

It is one of the more complex contracts agreed upon in major league history. According to reports from ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, Rodriguez will make $120MM through 2029. Per Rosenthal, that takes the form of a $15MM signing bonus to be paid up front, with $105MM to be distributed between 2023-29. After the contract’s seventh year (2028), the Mariners must decide whether to effectively re-extend Rodriguez for either eight or ten years, with the size and value of that long-term “club option” dependent on how Rodriguez finishes in MVP voting.

At minimum, Seattle will be deciding on whether to extend the contract by eight years and another $200MM. That figure could escalate as follows, depending on Rodriguez’s finishes in MVP balloting over the next seven years:

  • $240MM over eight years with two or three top ten finishes
  • $260MM over eight years with four top ten finishes
  • $280MM over eight years if he wins an MVP and finishes in the top five once more or finishes in the top five of MVP balloting on three occasions
  • $350MM over ten years if he wins two MVP awards or finishes among the top five in balloting on four occasions

In the event Rodriguez hits that highest threshold and the Mariners exercise the option, the contract would max out at 18 years and $470MM in total value.

If the Mariners do not exercise their multi-year option after Year 7, Rodriguez will have a five-year, $90MM player option he can exercise after Year 8 of the contract. (That option value could escalate as high as $125.5MM based on his finishes in Silver Slugger voting and All-Star appearances). That $90MM figure is considered guaranteed money, as is the case with all player options. Between the $120MM he’ll be paid over the next eight seasons and the $90MM base value of the player option, Rodriguez’s guarantee lands at the aforementioned $210MM. There is, of course, a scenario where the Mariners do not pick up their 8- to 10-year “club option,” and Rodriguez also declines his five-year “player option,” which would then allow him to reach free agency after collecting $120MM over eight years, when he’ll be heading into his age-30 campaign.

Rodriguez, 21, broke camp with the Mariners this season and, after a rough couple of weeks to begin the year, burst into immediate stardom and has established himself as one of the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year honors. He’s currently hitting .269/.328/.471 with 20 home runs, 19 doubles, three triples and 23 steals (in 29 tries) — plus above-average defensive contributions in center field.

Those numbers are at least slightly skewed by a poor start to the year in which Rodriguez batted .136/.208/.159 with a 45% strikeout rate. Dating back to April 22, Rodriguez has mashed at a .285/.342/.508 clip. That production is about 46% better than league average after weighting for park and league, by measure of wRC+, which places him in a three-way tie with Alex Bregman and the also recently-extended Austin Riley for 12th-best among qualified Major League hitters. Rodriguez also ranks 13th in the Majors in both average exit velocity (92 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.6%) in that time, and his 14.9% barrel rate is MLB’s ninth-best mark.

Add in the fact that he’s done all of this at 21 years of age and after skipping the Triple-A level entirely, and his rookie season becomes all the more remarkable. Given that youth and lack of upper-minors seasoning, it’s quite possible that even though Rodriguez already ranks among the game’s best hitters, we’ve yet to see the best he has to offer.

From a defensive standpoint, Rodriguez has more than held his own in center field this season, turning in positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (2), Ultimate Zone Rating (0.3) and Outs Above Average (5). Many scouting reports penned before his MLB debut suggested that as Rodriguez ages and continues to fill out, he could be destined for a corner outfield slot, but given his 70- or even 80-grade raw power and the solid work he’s flashed in center this season, he’ll have both the bat and likely the defensive chops to be an above-average contributor in right or left field.

The $210MM guarantee will give Rodriguez the record for largest contract ever signed by a player with under a year of Major League service time. That distinction currently belongs to Rays shortstop Wander Franco, who inked an 11-year, $182MM extension last November.

Rodriguez will topple that mark with ease, although it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. Franco wasn’t promoted until midseason and inked his deal in the winter, when the Rays had six full seasons of club control left over him. Because Rodriguez made the Opening Day roster, he’ll get a full year of service in 2022 and would “only” have had five additional years of club control remaining. In that respect, he could technically be considered more of a one-plus player (between one and two years of service time), although even when viewing the contract through that lens, it’s still a record-setting agreement; Ke’Bryan Hayes’ $70MM extension in Pittsburgh was the previous record for a player with between one and two years of service.

Regardless of which service bracket one thinks more aptly applies to Rodriguez, this new deal now stands as the largest contract ever promised to a player with fewer than two years of Major League service time. In that aspect, Rodriguez and the Major League Baseball Players Association are surely pleased to see the precedent for young, superstar extensions moved even further forward.

All that said, there’s still potential for the contract to be quite favorable for the Mariners. Rodriguez would’ve likely earned near the league minimum in salary over the next two seasons (plus any payouts from the newly collectively bargained bonus pool for pre-arbitration players). A player with his upside and early dominance would likely have done quite well in arbitration, and while we can never know exactly how much he might’ve earned through that process, arbitration is generally based on precedent. Looking for recent comparables, Mookie Betts secured $57.5MM for his three arbitration seasons. If we put Rodriguez into that broad vicinity, his remaining five years of club control might have netted him somewhere in the range of $60MM — perhaps a few million more if he’d taken home an MVP Award and/or pushed the Betts precedent a bit further.

Rodriguez will be paid $15MM on average over the next eight seasons, with at least two free agent seasons bought out. That obviously pales in comparison to what he could’ve earned on the open market had he gone year-to-year and hit the free-agent market in advance of his age-27 season, and the Mariners will have an opportunity to keep him from hitting free agency at any point in his prime. That risk-reward tradeoff is the nature of early contract extensions, of course. There’s obviously ample risk of injury or downturn in performance for Rodriguez, all of which is baked into the relative discount rate for those open-market seasons.

From a team payroll vantage point, there’s ample room for Seattle to make a commitment of this nature. A significant portion of the team’s recent rebuild was dedicated to clearing long-term clutter from the books — e.g., the Robinson Cano trade — and the team’s long-term commitments are now rather minimal. Left-hander Robbie Ray is signed through the 2026 season, as is shortstop J.P. Crawford, but they’ll combine for just $37MM at that point. That would’ve only been Rodriguez’s fifth big league season, so the salaries on his contract will not quite have escalated to their maximum levels.

Looking more short-term, the books are also still accommodating. The Mariners, who’ll see veterans Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier reach free agency at season’s end, had just over $63MM in guaranteed money on the 2023 payroll prior to this contract. That number doesn’t include an $8MM option for righty Chris Flexen, nor does it include a handful of arbitration raises: Luis Castillo (earning $7.35MM this season), Diego Castillo ($2.315MM), Paul Sewald ($1.735MM), Ty France (pre-arb) and Erik Swanson (pre-arb).

It’s a momentous day in Mariners history, one that firmly drives home the organization’s “win-now” mentality as it inches toward a postseason berth that would smash a two-decade playoff drought — currently the longest in major North American professional sports. There’s risk for both parties, but the contract is a continuation of the ever-growing trend of extending young stars at nine-figure rates that guarantee a player’s entire prime. The contract also locks Rodriguez down as the new face of Mariners baseball for the next decade-plus, ensuring them a charismatic, marketable star around whom to both build the roster and sell the product to the fanbase.

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing an extension worth more than $200MM guaranteed and as much as $450MM in total value. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the contract length and exact guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement was in place. Passan and  provided specifics on the financials. Rosenthal also reported the deal contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mariners Re-Sign Tommy Milone To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners brought back veteran southpaw Tommy Milone on a minor league contract this week, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. Seattle released him on trade deadline day to clear space on the 40-man roster for their acquisitions.

Milone was on the 15-day injured list at the time, having sustained a cervical muscle strain in the preceding days. The 35-year-old has not yet been assigned to an affiliate, so he’s yet to make an appearance since his most recent big league outing on July 29. That was the final of seven MLB outings during his run in the majors with Seattle. Milone worked 16 2/3 innings as a long reliever, posting a 5.40 ERA with six walks, five strikeouts and four home runs allowed.

That’s obviously not a great showing, but Milone excelled over seven starts with Triple-A Tacoma early in the year. He posted a minuscule 1.13 ERA through 32 frames, punching out 24.8% of opponents against a tidy 6.8% walk percentage. He’ll presumably return to that role with the Rainiers at some point as a rotation/long relief depth option.

Despite being one of the game’s softest throwers, Milone has continued to attract interest from myriad teams into his mid-30’s. He’s reached the big leagues in each of the past 12 years, working as a strike-throwing swing option of late. He’ll look to work his way back to the bigs with Seattle before the end of the season.

Ken Giles Elects Free Agency

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The Mariners announced that reliever Ken Giles has declined an outright assignment and elected free agency. Giles was designated for assignment on Friday and this announcement indicates he has passed through waivers unclaimed.  According to Ben Nicholson-Smith at Sportsnet.ca, Giles asked for his release from the Mariners.  As a veteran with over five years of MLB service time, Giles has the right to reject an outright assignment without forfeiting any salary.

Giles, now 31, underwent Tommy John surgery in October of 2020. The Mariners later signed him to a two-year deal, knowing that he would miss the entirety of the 2021 campaign, but hoping for a payoff in 2022. Giles made $1.5MM last year and is making $5MM this season. (There was also a club option for 2023, which now seems to be a moot point.) Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according to that long-term plan, with Giles missing much of this season due to other injuries. Though it was hoped he’d be ready for Opening Day, a finger injury in Spring Training kept him from making his Mariner debut until June 21. After five appearances with diminished velocity, a shoulder issue sent him back to the IL yet again. He was rehabbing from that issue when the M’s designated him for assignment.

Giles will now head back to the open market and try to find his next opportunity. Prior to his current run of injury woes, he was one of the better relievers in all of baseball. He was last healthy for an extended period of time in 2019 with the Blue Jays, throwing 53 innings with a 1.87 ERA, 39.9% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 39.3% ground ball rate.

Given the chance to claim Giles off waivers and take on the roughly $1.4MM owed to him for the remainder of the season – as well as a $500K buyout on his $9.5MM club option for 2023 – the remaining 29 teams passed.  Now, any team can sign Giles and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what Seattle pays. That will make him an interesting wild card in the baseball world until he signs. On the one hand, he’s now three years removed from his last signs of effectiveness and has dealt with various ailments since. But on the other hand, with the trade deadline now gone, teams desiring bullpen upgrades have very limited options for doing so. Given Giles’ past success and no-risk acquisition cost, teams could consider him worth a dice roll.

The Mariners also announced that catcher Luis Torrens cleared waivers and was outright to Triple-A Tacoma. His situation is slightly different from Giles, given that he has just over three years of MLB service time. Players between three and five years can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, though they have to forfeit their remaining salary. Torrens qualified for arbitration this past offseason as a Super Two player and is making a $1.2MM salary this year. With approximately $340K remaining to be paid out this year, no team deemed him worthy of a claim. Though the Mariners didn’t announce if he accepted the assignment, it seems fair to assume that he has, given that the club announced Giles’ rejection and the money Torrens would leave on the table by walking away. Torrens isn’t rated very highly for his defense but provided strong offense last year, hitting 15 home runs and slashing .243/.299/.431, wRC+ of 101. He’s been far worse this year, however, adding just a single long ball and producing a batting line of .214/.262/.252, wRC+ of 52.

Mariners Designate Ken Giles For Assignment

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The Mariners announced they’ve designated reliever Ken Giles for assignment. The move drops Seattle’s 40-man roster tally to 38.

It’s a surprising development, as the M’s didn’t have a pressing need for a spot on the 40-man roster. Giles also hadn’t been occupying a spot on the active roster, as he’s spent the past week and a half on a minor league rehab assignment while working his way back from shoulder tightness. The right-hander has tossed two scoreless innings with Triple-A Tacoma this week, but the organization apparently wasn’t bullish about his chances of fulfilling a key role in the bullpen down the stretch.

The move more or less closes the books on a two-year free agent deal that didn’t pan out as the club had hoped. The M’s signed Giles to a $7MM guarantee over the 2020-21 offseason. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery the previous October, but the organization agreed to pay him $1.5MM while rehabbing from the injury last year. In exchange, they got a potentially elite reliever who’d posted a 1.87 ERA while striking out almost 40% of opponents over 53 innings in 2019. The deal came with a 2022 salary of just $5MM, which would be massive bargain if Giles recaptured his pre-surgery form, along with a $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season.

Giles wound up making just five MLB appearances within the course of that deal. He missed all of last season, as expected. While the hope had been he’d been ready to go for Opening Day this year, he suffered a finger injury in Spring Training that cost him more than two months. Giles made his Mariners debut on June 21 and spent a little more than two weeks on the active roster. He worked 4 1/3 scoreless frames, allowing just one hit but walking four batters against six strikeouts. In that brief look, Giles’ fastball averaged 94.8 MPH and his slider checked in at 84.1 MPH. That’s solid velocity, but down from the respective 96.9 MPH and 86.4 MPH averages from his 2019 work.

After five outings, Giles went down with the shoulder issue from which he’s been trying to work his way back. Between the diminished velocity and the shoulder tightness, the Mariners decided to move on from the 31-year-old.

The trade deadline has already passed, so Seattle will have to place Giles on outright or release waivers in the coming days. There’s no real difference between the two in this case, as he has well over five years of major league service time. That gives him the right to refuse a minor league assignment while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary even if he clears waivers. The league’s 29 other teams will have an opportunity to add Giles for the stretch run. If they all pass, he’s almost certain to test free agency.

Any team that claims Giles would be responsible for the remainder of this year’s salary (around $1.5MM). A claiming team would get the right to the club option, but they’d also be on the hook for the $500K buyout if they declined the option. Given Giles’ lack of recent experience, it seems likely he’ll go unclaimed on waivers, although that’d be a more than reasonable price to pay if another team thought he could recapture something like his 2019 form.

If Giles clears waivers and hits free agency, the Mariners would remain on the hook for essentially all of that tab. They’d have to pay the buyout on next year’s option as well as all of his remaining 2022 salary, except for the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum for any time he spends on another team’s MLB roster (which would be paid by the signing club). Should Giles go unclaimed and sign elsewhere, he’d be a free agent after this season; the ’23 team option would not carry over to another team unless he’s claimed off waivers.

Mariners Reinstate Julio Rodriguez, Designate Luis Torrens

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The Mariners announced a handful of roster moves during tonight’s off day. Center fielder Julio Rodríguez is back from the injured list, while catcher Curt Casali has been reinstated from his own IL stint. To create active roster space, Seattle optioned outfielder Jarred Kelenic back to Triple-A Tacoma and designated catcher Luis Torrens for assignment. Torrens’ DFA drops the 40-man roster tally to 39.

Rodríguez returns after not much more than a minimal IL stint. He last played on July 30 before a right wrist contusion cost him around two weeks. The 21-year-old star is back to add to a Rookie of the Year-caliber resume, owner of a .271/.334/.482 line with 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases. He’s already the best player on a 61-52 team that currently holds the second American League Wild Card spot. The Mariners are 1 1/2 games in front of the Orioles and Rays, the clubs tied for the AL’s final postseason berth at the moment.

Kelenic and Sam Haggerty have platooned in center field over the past week and a half. Kelenic collected just two hits in 26 at-bats, continuing his struggles at the big league level. He’s hitting .124/.187/.265 over 123 MLB plate appearances on the season. The 23-year-old has a quality .288/.353/.550 showing over 252 trips to the dish with the Rainiers, and he’ll continue to get everyday run in the minors. He’s joined in Tacoma by former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, who was optioned out yesterday, while the Mariners roll with an outfield of Jesse Winker, Rodríguez, Mitch Haniger and Haggerty, with Jake Lamb working as a corner bat off the bench.

In addition to the outfield shakeup, the M’s make a switch behind the plate. Seattle acquired Casali from the Giants in the hours leading up to last Tuesday’s trade deadline. The veteran backstop was on a minor league rehab assignment at the time, working his way back from an oblique strain suffered on July 4. He’d hit .231/.325/.370 through 41 games in San Francisco and will get an opportunity to back up Cal Raleigh for the remainder of the season. Casali is slated to hit free agency at the end of the year.

The timing of the designation has to smart for Torrens, who’s only two days removed from a walk-off single to cap a dramatic win over the Yankees. The acquisition of Casali seemed to suggest the writing was on the wall for Torrens with the big league club, though. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning he had to stick on the MLB roster or be designated for assignment. With Raleigh and Casali in the fold, there’d no longer be room for Torrens unless the team wanted to carry three catchers.

Of course, Torrens’ struggles were a driving factor for the club’s acquisition of Casali in the first place. He’s mustered just a .214/.262/.252 line across 141 plate appearances, striking out at an elevated 31.9% clip. He’s also consistently rated as a well below-average defensive catcher throughout his MLB career, annually posting subpar pitch framing metrics and being behind the dish for 17 wild pitches in only 267 1/3 innings this season. Those certainly don’t all fall on Torrens, but Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 24 runs below average in 1067 2/3 career frames as a catcher.

Manager Scott Servais got Torrens a fair bit of time as a designated hitter last season, when he popped 15 home runs and 16 doubles in 108 games. That’s solid production for a #2 catcher, even a bat-first option, but Torrens’ offensive struggles mounted this year. Coupled with his defensive shortcomings, they eventually pushed him off the roster.

With the trade deadline having passed, the only option is to place Torrens on outright or release waivers within the next couple days. He’s playing this season on a $1.2MM salary after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player last winter. He’s due around $369K through year’s end. Any claiming team would assume the remainder of that money and could control Torrens through 2024. As a player with more than three years of big league service time, he would have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed on waivers. Doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of his guaranteed salary, however, as he has less than five years of service. It therefore seems likely he’d accept an assignment to Tacoma if he clears.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Mariners Option Kyle Lewis

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s game, with utility player Dylan Moore and right-hander Diego Castillo each being reinstated from the injured list. To make room on the active roster, the club has optioned both left-hander Brennan Bernardino and outfielder Kyle Lewis to Triple-A Tacoma.

The optioning of Lewis is arguably the most significant detail here, as he is a former Rookie of the Year and once seemed a lock to be part of the next great Mariners team. Now 27, he burst onto the scene in 2019, making his MLB debut and getting into 18 games. He hit six homers in that small sample and slashed .268/.293/.592 for a wRC+ of 128. He carried that over into the shortened 2020 campaign, hitting 11 homers, stealing five bags and producing a batting line of .262/.364/.437, wRC+ of 127. He was unanimously voted the American League Rookie of the Year that season.

Unfortunately, Lewis has been having a miserable time over the past two years. He suffered a meniscus tear in 2021, which ended his season after just 36 games. His recovery even lingered into 2022, with Lewis beginning the season on the injured list and not getting activated until May 24. Just five days later, his misfortune continued, as he landed on the concussion IL. The M’s sent him out on a rehab assignment over a month later, in early July, returning to the big league club in late July.

Lewis has hit very well in the minors during his various rehab assignments, putting up a batting line of .293/.408/.741 this year for a wRC+ 177. However, his MLB playing time has been much less successful, as he’s hit .143/.226/.304, striking out in 30.6% of his plate appearances in that 18-game sample.

With Mitch Haniger recently returning from the injured list, it seems Lewis got squeezed out of the outfield picture, as Haniger will take regular playing time next to Jesse Winker and Jarred Kelenic, with Moore, Sam Haggerty and Jake Lamb also capable of seeing some time on the grass. Julio Rodriguez is also expected to return from the IL later this week, which will only crowd things further.

The option could potentially have repercussions for Lewis from a service time perspective, as he came into this season with his service time clock sitting at two years and 20 days. Since 172 days is considered a full season, Lewis would need to accumulate 152 days on the active roster this season to cross the three-year mark. The season is about 125 days old at this point by my unofficial count, meaning Lewis is about 27 days shy of crossing over that barrier. If he gets recalled later in the season and makes up that difference, he would qualify for free agency after the 2025 season, but it would be pushed back by a year if he comes up short. He would almost certainly still qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player regardless, as he should finish the season at 2.145 even if he never returns to the big league club. The Super Two cutoff moves from year to year, as it includes the top 22% of players between two and three years of service time. The most recent cutoff was 2.116, with the highest of the past decade-plus being the 2.146 in 2011.

The option of Bernardino is also a notable development as he was the only lefty in the club’s bullpen, with Ryan Borucki getting placed on the IL recently. For the time being, it seems the club will operate with an entirely right-handed relief corps.

That relief corps will evidently include Chris Flexen, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes that he has been moved to the bullpen. With the acquisition of Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, the M’s are suddenly dealing with an abundance of starting pitching, as Castillo joins Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in the rotation. It seems Flexen has been edged out for the time being and will work out of the ’pen. Flexen is just 3 1/3 innings away from securing himself an $8MM guarantee for next year, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently examined. Moving to the bullpen will delay Flexen vesting that salary for next year, though he should still have plenty of time to get over the line.

Travis Jankowski Elects Free Agency

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The Mariners announced that outfielder Travis Jankowski has passed through waivers unclaimed. He’s refused an outright assignment to Triple-A Tacoma in favor of free agency. As a player with five-plus years of MLB service time, Jankowski can head to the open market while still collecting the remaining guarantees on his contract.

Jankowski had a very brief stint in the Seattle organization. The Mariners claimed him off waivers from the Mets on August 1. He appeared in one game, striking out in his only plate appearance, before being designated for assignment after the club bolstered its bench at the trade deadline. Now that he’s gone unclaimed on waivers, he’ll set out into free agency in search of a new opportunity.

Before landing in the Pacific Northwest, Jankowski had spent the year in Queens. He hit .167/.286/.167 without an extra-base hit in 63 plate appearances over 43 contests. The 31-year-old has never been a huge offensive threat, but his career .236/.319/.310 line is more acceptable than his 2022 production. Paired with elite speed and quality defense across all three outfield spots, that’s been sufficient to get Jankowski frequent action as a fourth outfielder with the Padres, Reds and Phillies before this season.

It’s possible Jankowski will have to settle for a minor league offer during this trip to the open market. He should draw some interest as an outfield depth option for clubs, particularly within the next couple weeks. Players have to be in an organization (although not on a 40-man roster) by September 1 to be eligible for postseason play.

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

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Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

Mariners Sign Anthony Banda To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have signed left-hander Anthony Banda to a minor league deal, per Mike Curto, broadcaster for the Tacoma Rainiers, Seattle’s Triple-A team.

Banda, 28, joins his third organization of the year, as he began the season with the Pirates but was designated for assignment and traded to the Blue Jays in July. He lasted a month with the Jays before being a roster casualty on deadline day, getting bumped out of the picture when the Jays made several additions to the club. After clearing waivers, he was eligible to reject an outright assignment and return to the open market by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.

Between the Pirates and Blue Jays, Banda has thrown 26 innings on the year with a 5.88 ERA, though much more impressive peripherals. He has a 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 33.3% ground ball rate. A .446 batting average on balls in play seems to be pushing that ERA up, leading to all advanced metrics valuing Banda as deserving better. He has a 4.34 xERA, 3.92 FIP, 3.92 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA this year.

For the Mariners, adding another lefty to their system is fairly sensible, given their dearth of options in that department. Ryan Borucki was placed on the 15-day injured list earlier today due to a flexor strain, with Brennan Bernardino being recalled to take his place as the only southpaw in the big league bullpen. The only other lefty on the 40-man roster that’s not in the big league starting rotation is Justus Sheffield, who was been working as a starter in the minors. Banda will add to the club’s thin crop of left-handed relief depth.

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