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Mariners Claim Gabe Speier From Royals; Outright Casey Sadler, Ryan Borucki

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The Mariners announced they have claimed left-hander Gabe Speier off waivers from the Royals. Additionally, they have outrighted lefty Ryan Borucki and right-hander Casey Sadler.

Speier has appeared in each of the last four seasons with the Royals. He hasn’t gotten an extended look over any part of that stretch. This year’s 17 appearances and 19 1/3 innings were career highs, and he’s worked a cumulative 40 innings. Speier has a 3.83 ERA, and his 20.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk percentage are right around average.

A former Red Sox draftee, Speier averages around 94 MPH on his sinker but leaned more heavily on his slider. He’s only managed a 6.67 ERA across 112 innings at the Triple-A level, thanks largely to a dismal 14.51 mark over 26 2/3 innings with Omaha this year. Speier was battered for 51 hits and 11 home runs in that stretch, but the M’s will take a shot on a change of scenery. The 27-year-old still has an option year remaining, so the M’s can move him between Seattle and Triple-A Tacoma next year if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster.

Borucki is squeezed off the depth chart in his place. The M’s acquired the southpaw from the Blue Jays this year. The 28-year-old combined for a 5.68 ERA over 25 1/3 innings with the two clubs, only striking out 18.9% of batters faced while struggling to keep the ball in the yard. He was projected for a $1.1MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract, but the M’s evidently determined they weren’t prepared to pay that sum.

Parting with Sadler is a bit more surprising, as the righty was excellent during his last healthy season. He posted a microscopic 0.67 ERA over 40 1/3 innings for the M’s in 2021. He punched out an above-average 25.5% of batters faced and racked up grounders on over three-fifths of batted balls against him. Sadler looked like a high-leverage weapon, but he didn’t pitch in 2022 after undergoing shoulder surgery in Spring Training.

Seattle could’ve retained the 32-year-old by tendering him an arbitration contract, which was projected in the $1.025MM range. They evidently determined not to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter given the injury, and no other club placed a waiver claim despite the chance to retain him at that modest rate.

Both Borucki and Sadler are eligible for minor league free agency, and it’s a virtual lock they’ll each hit the open market in the next few days. Both will serve as experienced depth options for clubs seeking bullpen help, although Sadler may have to demonstrate his health for suitors.

Mariners Acquire Easton McGee From Red Sox

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The Mariners have acquired right-hander Easton McGee from the Red Sox for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams.

McGee, who turns 25 next month, was originally selected to a big league roster for the first time about six weeks ago, yet is now in his third organization already. A 2016 draft pick of the Rays, he was added to Tampa’s roster at the end of September but quickly designated for assignment after a single appearance. He was claimed by the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season and didn’t get a chance to pitch for them. Though Boston won’t get any contributions from McGee on the field, they will at least get some Seattle cash out of the deal.

McGee has never been a huge strikeout artist but has often succeeded in the minors by inducing a lot of ground balls. His grounder rate has been around 45-50% in most of his minor league seasons, though it dropped to 39.6% over 107 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022. That led to McGee posting an ERA of 5.43 on the year, though he’d been better than that in previous campaigns. Another thing he has going for him is control, as he’s never posted a walk rate above 4.8%, apart from his rookie ball debut. For reference, the MLB average in 2022 was 8.2%. McGee still has a full slate of options, meaning the Mariners can keep him stashed in the minors as a depth option for the foreseeable future.

Latest On Kodai Senga’s Market

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Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga will be looking to sign with an MLB team this winter. He figures to garner plenty of interest based on his track record of success with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He’s already been connected to the Cubs, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds the Blue Jays and Mariners to the mix (Twitter links). Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune lists the Padres as interested, while adding that virtually every other team will be as well.

The widespread interest is easy to understand. Just about every team in baseball could use an upgrade in the starting rotation and Senga seems plenty capable of providing that. Turning 30 in January, he already has a years-long track record of success in Japan. Most recently, he tossed 144 innings in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

Adding to the interest will be that Senga is a proper free agent and not subject to the posting system. When players come over from Japan or Korea, they will usually be posted by their NPB or KBO team. The MLB team that signs the player would have to pay a fee to the posting team, which is not a cut of the contract. It’s an additional cost that is not subtracted from what the player is owed. However, the Hawks have a policy against posting their players and thus held onto Senga until their control over his services was exhausted. Going into his final year of control, he signed an extension with the team but one that allowed him the opportunity to opt out and become a proper free agent. That means that whoever signs Senga will not have to pay any extra fees to the Hawks.

The Blue Jays make for a fairly logical Senga suitor, given their starting pitching struggles in 2022. The Jays were able to win 92 games on the year but did so largely on the strength of their lineup and in spite of a lopsided starting rotation. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were excellent and provided the club with a strong one-two punch, but that was also offset by poor performances from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

In the case of Berríos, he kept his ERA steadily between 3.52 and 4.00 for the five previous seasons before seeing it balloon up to 5.23 in his first full season with Toronto. Kikuchi was up-and-down during his time with the Mariners but posted a 5.19 ERA after signing a three-year deal with the Jays. Mitch White, acquired from the Dodgers in a deadline deal when he had a 3.70 ERA, ended up posting a 7.74 figure in his time with Toronto. After Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, swingman Ross Stripling stepped up and seized a rotation job, finishing the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 innings. However, he’s now a free agent, leaving the Jays with a rotation of two solid starters and three question marks.

For the Padres, they also make good sense as a landing spot for Senga since they are seeing two holes open up in their rotation. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are now free agents, leaving the club’s rotation with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. They also subtracted from their depth options at the deadline when MacKenzie Gore was included in the Juan Soto trade. One other wild card is Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation before getting bumped to the bullpen. He can opt out of his deal and become a free agent though his decision on that matter hasn’t yet been reported publicly.

Darvish and Snell are also set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as potentially the last man standing in 2024. Making a significant addition to the rotation would be sensible for the Padres both in the short term and the long term. They have some internal options to potentially help them out, with Adrian Morejon and Jay Groome on hand. However, Morejon missed most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and worked in relief when he returned in 2022. The club is reportedly not giving up on him as a starter just yet, but he will likely have to earn his way into a job by proving his health and effectiveness. Groome has shown a lot of potential in the minors but has yet to make his MLB debut and will also likely have to force his way into the picture.

The Mariners are less of an obvious fit than the other two teams here, as they actually seem to have a rotation surplus at the moment. The acquisition and subsequent extension of Luis Castillo gave them a strong front four, including Robbie Ray, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. They also have a pair of good options for the final rotation spot in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Since Flexen was bumped to the bullpen after Castillo came aboard and is now just one year away from free agency, he’s been speculated as a trade candidate. Signing someone like Senga would add to a situation that’s already fairly crowded, though it wouldn’t necessarily be out of character for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to make a move that leads to other moves. He didn’t get the nickname “Trader Jerry” for nothing, after all.

Of course, Senga’s market surely isn’t limited to these three teams. As Acee mentioned, just about every club is likely to have some degree of interest in him, the old adage about never having too much pitching getting heavy usage in the offseason and whatnot. The top of the free agent market for starting pitchers will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Those three will surely require massive contracts that will price out some teams, leaving Senga as an attractive option on the next tier.

Mariners To Select Prelander Berroa

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The Mariners are planning to select right-hander Prelander Berroa onto their 40-man roster, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 22-year-old would otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, and Seattle will keep him away from other clubs by adding him to the 40-man.

Seattle acquired Berroa in May, adding him from the Giants in a deal that sent utilityman Donovan Walton to San Francisco. It was the second trade of Berroa’s young career, as he’d previously gone from the Twins to the Giants in a 2019 deadline deal. A native of the Dominican Republic, Berroa draws praise from evaluators for his fastball-slider combination but has some questions about his control.

That was mostly borne out in his 2022 numbers. Berroa split his time between High-A and Double-A, starting all 26 of his appearances. He posted a cumulative 2.86 ERA through 100 2/3 innings, striking out an incredible 36.5% of batters faced. He also walked an elevated 12.6% of opponents, highlighting that his strike-throwing remains a work in progress. Nevertheless, the M’s feel there’s a chance another club would’ve plugged Berroa directly onto the MLB roster next year given the quality of his stuff.

Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger

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The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.

Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.

He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.

That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.

The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.

He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Outright Assignments: Wallach, Ellis

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2:10 pm: The Angels announced that Wallach has elected free agency.

1:05 pm: The latest outright assignments from around baseball…

  • The Angels outrighted catcher Chad Wallach to Triple-A, as per the club’s MLB.com transactions page.  It isn’t known if he’ll accept the assignment or not, but since this isn’t the first time Wallach has been outrighted, he can opt to reject the Angels’ assignment in favor of free agency.  Wallach was claimed off waivers from the Dodgers in August 2021, and he played in 12 games with Anaheim this season when Max Stassi and Kurt Suzuki were on the injured list.  Best known for his time with the Marlins, Wallach has appeared in parts of the last six MLB seasons, and has a reputation as a solid defensive catcher and game-caller.  At the plate, Wallach has hit .198/.265/.296 over 271 PA and 90 games in the majors.
  • The Mariners announced that Drew Ellis was outrighted off their 40-man roster, and the infielder was assigned to Triple-A after clearing waivers.  This is first time Ellis has been outrighted, and since he also lacks the prerequisite MLB service time or seven seasons in the minors, he cannot elect free agency.  The 26-year-old came to Seattle via waiver claim off the Diamondbacks roster in June, though he only appeared in a single MLB game in a Mariners uniform.  Making his Major League debut with the D’Backs in 2021, Ellis has played in 35 games in the Show, with a .482 OPS over an even 100 plate appearances.  Arizona selected Ellis in the second round of the 2017 draft, and his minor league numbers improved after a promotion to Triple-A in 2021, but his production declined again this past season.  Ellis brings some infield depth with his experience at first, second, and third base during his minor league career.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners finally ended their postseason drought, and took a step further in October with a dramatic sweep of the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.  Now, the Mariners are looking to shed their other ignominious label as the only one of the 30 MLB teams that has never reached the World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodriguez, OF: $195MM through 2034 (based on multiple club and player options, deal could be worth up to $455MM through the 2039 season)
  • Luis Castillo, SP: $101MM through 2027 (conditional option for 2028, either a $25MM vesting option for Castillo or a $5MM club option for the Mariners)
  • Robbie Ray, SP: $94MM through 2026 (Ray can opt out after 2024 season)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $41MM through 2026
  • Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $24MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2025)
  • Evan White, 1B: $20MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; Mariners also hold $11MM club option for 2027 with $1MM buyout, and $12.5MM club option for 2028 with $1MM buyout)
  • Marco Gonzales, SP: $18.5MM through 2024 (no buyout on $15MM club option for 2025)
  • Jesse Winker, OF: $8.25MM through 2023
  • Chris Flexen, SP/RP: $8MM through 2023
  • Andres Munoz, RP: $6MM through 2025 (Mariners hold club options worth $6MM in 2026, $8MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2023 commitments: $96.125MM
Total future commitments: $536.07MM

Free Agents

The Mariners got a jump on some offseason business in August and September when Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo were both signed to contract extensions.  Since 2022 was only Rodriguez’s rookie season, there was less urgency to lock up the burgeoning superstar immediately, and yet the complex and potentially record-setting deal (that could span most of the next two decades) underlined the Mariners’ commitment to Rodriguez as the new face of Seattle baseball.

Castillo would’ve been a free agent after the 2023 season, and in signing him through at least the 2027 season, Seattle doubled down on its commitment to the right-hander after already paying a big prospect price to acquire him from the Reds at the trade deadline.  Extending Castillo also represents the Mariners’ latest investment in their starting rotation, which now consists of two high-paid stars (Castillo and Robbie Ray), two homegrown talents in their pre-arbitration years (George Kirby and Logan Gilbert), and two veterans on reasonable contracts (Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen).

Of course, Flexen wasn’t a starter for much of the second half, as he was moved to the bullpen once Castillo came aboard.  He still amassed enough innings to hit a vesting threshold in his initial two-year, $4.75MM deal with the Mariners, thus assuring Flexen of an $8MM salary in 2023.  Flexen and Gonzales have pretty similar profiles as low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurlers, though Gonzales has a much more established track record of limiting hard contact, as well as just a longer track record as an established Major League starter.

With six starting candidates for five rotation spots, it can be assumed that Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, and Kirby aren’t going anywhere.  That leaves Gonzales and Flexen as possible trade candidates if the M’s did want to deal from this apparent surplus, and Flexen already reportedly received some interest from other teams prior to the deadline.  Flexen is the younger and less expensive of the two, and had a 3.73 ERA/5.00 SIERA and 0.7 fWAR over 137 2/3 innings in 2022, while Gonzales had a 4.13 ERA/4.99 SIERA and only 0.1 fWAR in 183 frames.  Those numbers slightly favor Flexen, but as his SIERA implies, the advanced metrics weren’t impressed with his work last year.

Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard, and Bryce Miller represent Seattle’s next wave of young pitchers, with all three expected to make their Triple-A debuts to start off the 2023 season.  If all goes well, at least one of those prospects could be ready to jump to the majors later in 2023, perhaps becoming a new sixth starter/swingman type in their first taste of the big leagues.  Or, the Mariners could possibly acquire a veteran for such a role in the offseason, if one of Gonzales or Flexen was traded.

The other option, naturally, is for the M’s to just stand pat with what is already a strong rotation mix.  The Mariners got an unusual amount of good fortune with the health of their starting pitchers in 2022, and they might just want to keep both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold as additional depth, considering how rare it is for a team to dodge the injury bug for two straight years.

Then again, it’s also pretty rare for a team to post consecutive years of dominance in one-run games.  The Mariners followed up their 33-19 mark in one-run games in 2021 with a 34-22 record last season, defying the conventional wisdom that teams “should” generally finish around .500 in such close contests.  Seattle again beat those odds thanks in large part to an outstanding bullpen that should return mostly intact.

The unpredictable nature of relief pitching means that probably not all of Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, and Matt Brash will continue to pitch as well as they did in 2022, yet that is still quite a core group to have in place as the Mariners look for a few more reinforcements.  Trading from that group is also a possibility, as just like with the rotation, the Mariners’ pitching depth gives them some leverage in exploring deals.  As noted, any of the top prospect starters could also break into the majors as relievers, adding more depth to the pen.

In terms of big-league additions, the M’s already made a move by claiming Luke Weaver off waivers from Kansas City.  Weaver’s first full season as a relief pitcher resulted in a 6.56 ERA over 35 2/3 innings with the Royals and Diamondbacks, but his advanced metrics indicate that Weaver was quite unlucky to post such an ugly ERA.  There isn’t much left-handed depth in the relief corps, though the M’s could at least tender Ryan Borucki a contract and keep him around.  Seattle is also likely to explore re-signing Matt Boyd after he delivered some solid late-season work, but Boyd might prefer a clearer path to a starting job now that he is further removed from his September 2021 flexor tendon surgery.

While the Mariners have one of the more stable pitching situations of any team in baseball, their lineup has several question marks.  Improving the position-player mix will surely be the priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto this winter, and given Dipoto’s signature aggressiveness, nothing can be ruled out.  Signing a major free agent, trading pitching for hitting, trading a younger position player for a more established bat — all of these options and more could be on the table.

There should be a good amount of payroll space to work with, as Roster Resource projects the M’s around $131.5MM in 2023 player payroll (including arbitration estimates), with probably a few million to be shaved off that total via non-tenders.  This leaves Dipoto with plenty of spending capacity before he even reaches the Mariners’ team-record $158MM payroll from 2018, and it also seems quite possible ownership might provide some more funds to help keep the playoff revenues rolling.  Swapping Gonzales or Flexen would be a way of reallocating some money that is already on the books, and the Mariners could perhaps take a flier on another undesirable contract by trading Evan White, who no longer seems to be in the team’s long-term plans.

For a 90-win team, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of positions settled heading into 2023.  Rodriguez will play center field, J.P. Crawford will ostensibly play shortstop (more on that later), Ty France is slated for first base, Eugenio Suarez for third base, and Cal Raleigh slugged his way into establishing himself as the starting catcher once Tom Murphy’s season was cut short by shoulder surgery.  Either Murphy or Luis Torrens could be non-tender candidates, as neither can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

Jesse Winker will receive at least a share of everyday duty in left field, though he will be trying to re-establish himself after an underwhelming first season in Seattle.  Winker hit only .219/.344/.344 over 547 plate appearances, with a reversal of his career-long splits; he struggled badly against right-handed pitching in 2022, while actually posting decent numbers against southpaws.  If Winker can regain his old form next season, that would alone help the Mariners add some more pop to the batting order, though his struggles were somewhat mitigated by Suarez (also acquired from the Reds in basically a salary dump as part of the Winker trade) rediscovering his hitting stroke once joining the M’s.

Between Winker, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic, Sam Haggerty, and utilityman Dylan Moore, the Mariners may have plenty of options for the corner outfield positions….or none, at least for a team that hopes to contend.  Lewis is still working his way back from a torn meniscus in 2021, and while he hit well in Triple-A last year, he struggled over 62 PA in the majors.  Trammell is only 25 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, and he did manage roughly league-average offense in a part-time role last season, but it remains to be seen if he still grow into being a lineup regular or if he might be a fourth-outfielder type.  Haggerty might have hit his own fourth-outfielder ceiling, though he did play quite well in part-time duty in 2022.  Kelenic is a former consensus top-10 prospect, but he has looked totally overmatched at the plate in 558 PA at the big league level.

There is enough potential in this group that the M’s could just roll the dice and hope at least one player breaks out as a reliable everyday option to slot alongside Rodriguez.  As such, Dipoto might wait until closer to the trade deadline to see if any upgrades are necessary to the outfield or DH spot.  Carlos Santana might not be re-signed after posting middling numbers in 2022, and Seattle could just cycle several players into DH duty unless a more consistent bat is needed.

Trading from this outfield group is another possibility, if the Mariners perhaps tried to package one or two of the controllable outfielders to a rebuilding team with an established veteran available.  Such a deal could conceivably happen with or without Mitch Haniger re-signing, though a reunion with Haniger could be the smoothest answer.

Haniger carries plenty of injury baggage.  He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from a ruptured testicle, core muscle surgery and back surgery.  He was then limited to only 57 games in 2022 due to a high ankle sprain (which required a 60-day injured list stint) as well as a two-week absence recovering from COVID-19.  With this recent history in mind, Haniger could be a candidate to accept a qualifying offer, except the Mariners may not want to offer $19.65MM on a one-year deal.  Not issuing a QO, of course, would mean the Mariners wouldn’t get any compensation if he signed elsewhere, and any number of teams will surely have interest in adding Haniger to their rosters.

Seattle might also explore other free agent outfielders beyond Haniger, in search of a player who could provide somewhat comparable offense on a less-expensive one-year deal than the cost of a qualifying offer.  On paper, the M’s have the need and the payroll flexibility to be part of the Aaron Judge conversation, and it’s probably safe to assume the team will check in with Judge’s representatives.  But, there’s a reason Dipoto is known as “Trader Jerry” as opposed to “Signer Jerry” — the executive generally turns to the trade market to make his biggest moves, rather than any huge splashes in the free agent pool.

Then again, Ray was signed for $115MM last winter, which already signals a change in Dipoto’s preferred player-acquisition strategy as the Mariners move into win-now mode.  Dipoto has already indicated he plans to explore the shortstop market this winter, with such notables as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson headlining a deep class.

The catch is the M’s might not necessarily be viewing any of these shortstops as shortstops, since Dipoto’s stated “great preference” is to keep Crawford at shortstop and use any new infielder as a second baseman.  This seems to close the door on the chances of Adam Frazier being re-signed, which isn’t surprising since the former All-Star struggled through a rough 2022 season.  It also reaffirms the Mariners’ commitment to Crawford, who was already signed a contract extension back in April.

Dipoto was also adamant last winter that Crawford was Seattle’s everyday shortstop, which seemed to somewhat limit the Mariners’ involvement in last offseason’s deep shortstop class, even though the M’s did have interest in such players as Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.  It is worth noting that Dipoto’s most recent statements seemed at least a touch less committed to Crawford as a shortstop, saying “we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard,” and that Crawford “does a very good job in anything that we asked him to do.”

Moving Crawford to second base could be the more logical move.  MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this subject in greater detail back in August, as Crawford’s glovework declined sharply in the view of public defensive metrics (-11 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.9 UZR/150).  Crawford was dealing with some knee problems last year and therefore might perform closer to his 2020 Gold Glove form when healthy, but a shift over to second base would also help him from a defensive perspective.

Internal options like Moore, Abraham Toro, or even Haggerty and France could help out at second base in a pinch, yet the keystone definitely seems like the Mariners’ top need on the diamond.  If the M’s don’t move Crawford or can’t convince one of the big free agent shortstops to change positions, another route would be to just sign a proper second baseman.  Brandon Drury and former Mariner Jean Segura (if the Phillies decline their club option on Segura) could be targeted, or Seattle could gauge trade possibilities with middle-infield heavy teams like the Guardians, Reds, or Cardinals.

For a team that thrived on its success in tight games, there is some irony in the fact that the Mariners lost all three ALDS games to Houston by a combined total of four runs.  The M’s are hoping the narrow nature of that series is an omen of how they’re starting to close the gap with the Astros for AL West supremacy, and the 2022-23 offseason could be one of the most important in franchise history as Seattle might be a few finishing touches away from a championship contender.

Mariners Outright Derek Hill

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Outfielder Derek Hill has gone unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Mariners earlier in the week, the team announced. He has been outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, but he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason as a player who has spent more than seven years in the minors.

Hill, 27 in December, was a first-round pick of the Tigers in 2014. An excellent runner and gifted center fielder, he played his way up the minor league ladder but never found the offensive consistency Detroit had hoped. He’s reached double digits in home runs just once in his minor league career, and he’s increasingly struggled to make contact against higher-level pitching. Through parts of eight minor league seasons, he owns a .246/.315/.362 line with an elevated 25.7% strikeout rate.

Despite the offensive inconsistency, Hill played his way to the majors by 2020 on the strength of his glove and baserunning. He spent parts of three seasons in Detroit, compiling a .240/.291/.339 line over 254 plate appearances in intermittent playing time. He swiped nine bases and played over 600 innings in center field over that stretch. The Tigers designated him for assignment in early August, and Seattle nabbed him off waivers.

Hill has spent the past few months in the Mariners organization, but he didn’t make an appearance in Seattle. He instead spent the stretch run on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma, putting up a .236/.320/.462 showing with five homers in 34 games. Once he officially hits free agency, he figures to entertain some minor league offers with invitations to big league Spring Training.

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